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India won't get a V-shaped recovery this time - The Hindu BusinessLine

India won’t get a V-shaped recovery this time
Bloomberg
June 1 |
Updated on
June 01, 2021
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There are several crucial differences from last year that could make it harder to bounce back
The V-shaped economic recovery that India’s policy makers obsessed over in 2020 did eventually materialise. It won’t be repeated after this year’s Covid-19 carnage.
To see why, start with the fading momentum. Government statistics released Monday showed 1.6 per cent growth in gross domestic product from a year earlier in the March quarter, before a deadly second wave of infections. But this expansion, an improvement over the 0.5 per cent rate in the previous three months, is a statistical artefact. A better metric is seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth, which Capital Economics calculates at 0.7 per cent, a sharp though largely expected slowdown from 9.5 per cent in the December quarter. (The figures aren’t annualised.) ....

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India needs more 'productive' jobs and higher wages to address its demand problem

India needs more ‘productive’ jobs and higher wages to address its demand problem
Radhicka KapoorJan 29, 2021, 13:13 IST
Job creation will not just help solve widening inequalities but also help the Indian economy address the problem of weak domestic demand.
A big part of this is in creating better paying employment for those at the bottom of the pyramid who are engaged in low paid informal work arrangements.
This can be done by boosting
MNREGA allocation, creating productive job opportunities in the manufacturing sector by leveraging the PLI scheme and providing support to micro and small enterprises.It is now abundantly clear that a disproportionate burden of the COVID-19 shock has been borne by those at the lower end of the income distribution. Especially for those engaged in informal work arrangements. ....

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Budget 2021 Is a Chance to Undo the COVID-Induced Inequality That Has Surged Across India

Budget 2021 Is a Chance to Undo the COVID-Induced Inequality That Has Surged Across India
Ideally, the government should increase the work entitlement for MGNREGA to at least 150 days, double the budget and put in place an urban employment guarantee act.
Daily wage labourers stand in a queue for free food at a construction site during the 21-day nationwide lockdown, in New Delhi, India, April 10, 2020. Photo: Reuters/Adnan Abidi
Labour26/Jan/2021
Letâs start with those who did well over the last 10 months. The Sensex index crossed the 50,000 benchmark for the first time on January 21, 2021, with a whopping 70% increase since April 2020. ....

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