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Calculated Risk

1/15/2021 08:38:00 AM
On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.7 percent from November to December (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 2.9 percent from December 2019.
From the Census Bureau report:
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2020, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $540.9 billion,
a
decrease of 0.7 percent from the previous month, but 2.9 percent above December 2019.
Total sales for the 12 months of 2020 were up 0.6 percent from 2019. . The October 2020 to November 2020 percent change was revised from down 1.1 percent to down 1.4 percent.
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). ....

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Calculated Risk: Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased in December

The Dodge Momentum Index jumped 9.2% in December to 134.6 (2000=100) from the revised November reading of 123.3. The Momentum Index, issued by Dodge Data & Analytics, is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. The commercial component of the Momentum Index rose 14.0%, while the institutional component rose by 0.3%.
The gain in the commercial component of the Momentum Index was heartening even though
the increase was mostly the result of a sizeable increase in warehouse planning. The warehouse sector has been one of the few areas of construction that has flourished during the pandemic thanks to increased demand for online shopping. For the full year of 2020, the Dodge Momentum Index lost 4.8% from 2019. The institutional component of the Momentum Index dropped 13.5%, while the commercial component increased 0.8%. ....

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