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Notwithstanding, the recent rise in COVID cases, Pakistan has been showing signs of a fragile economic recovery with a gradual resumption of economic dynamism, according to a new World Bank report. Pakistan’s economic growth is expected to reach 1.3 percent in FY2021 and strengthen to an average of 2.7 percent for FY2022-23, according to the Pakistan Development Update. The baseline economic growth forecast, however, is highly uncertain, especially given the third and more-contagious wave of the pandemic currently circulating in the country. Private consumption is estimated to have picked up over July to December 2020, in part due to the record increase in remittances inflows, social assistance support from the Ehsaas program, the government’s construction package, and a return to pre-COVID mobility levels from September 2020. Investment is also estimated to be recovering, as machinery imports and cement sales both recorded double-digit growth rates during this perio ....
Daily Times Report says Pakistan has become a more inward-oriented economy April 8, 2021 Given Pakistan’s observable characteristics in terms of economic size, level of development, remoteness, and factor endowments, it is estimated that Pakistan’s potential annual exports are at US$ 88.1 billion, about four times the actual current level, World Bank said in its recent report “Pakistan Development Update”. This large gap between actual and potential exports, or “missing exports,” places Pakistan among the top quartile of the distribution of countries with missing exports. Were Pakistan’s exporters to tap into that potential, the resulting export-to-GDP ratio would place the country at around the middle of the distribution of countries according to export orientation. To reach that point, Pakistan’s exports would need to grow at the same rate as Vietnam’s for 10 years, or Bangladesh’s for 13 years. ....
THE IMF’s new forecast of a subdued economic growth rate of 1.5pc for Pakistan in the current fiscal represents an upgrade from its October estimate of 1pc. Still, it is consistent with the lender’s previous view of the economy in the Covid-19 landscape. The new projection is in line with the World Bank’s revised forecast of 1.3pc given in its Pakistan Development Update published simultaneously with the IMF’s World Economic Review. Nonetheless, it falls shy of the government’s growth target of 2.1pc in addition to being far less optimistic than the State Bank’s latest recovery estimate of 3pc. Last year, the economy had contracted by 0.4pc during the pandemic. Their different figures for growth notwithstanding, SBP and IMF seem to have a similar outlook on other macroeconomic aspects: fiscal balance, inflation and current account deficit. The global lender also expects growth to pick up next year, projecting the economy to expand by 4pc, with inflation slowing dow ....
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