How did these things affect people we revisit the state even when there are no international headlines. Aljazeera really invests in that and thats a privilege. Hello there im nick clark this is counting the cost on aljazeera to look at the world of business and economics this week mozambiques troubled road to becoming the worlds 4th biggest gas exporter a debt crisis and an equal society and an islamist uprising near its most valuable gas fields. Also this week an epic battle to challenge apples grip on its store a multibillion Dollar Gaming Company taking on the tech giants and the regulators watching from the wings. The mighty dollar. That up ends its dominance or is that Wishful Thinking on the road to a current. 7 in time mozambique will become the 4th biggest exporter of gas but right now is fast becoming the most unequal societies in Subsaharan Africa the promise of gas riches could not come quickly enough for a nation mired in a debt scandal that plunged the country into a currency crisis in debt default almost 4 years on the pandemic and insurgency in the far north where the country has its most valuable offshore gas deposits a crippling the economy well in the worst Case Scenario the economy is expected to contract 2 percent this year thats according to the African Development bank and with gas prices hitting a 25 year low some International Oil giants are rethinking their plans exxon which is operating the biggest project in the gas rich province of kabul theyll gado well as much as 30000000000. 00 as perspire and indefinitely a final Investment Decision but frances total they are pushing ahead to securing financing for its 20000000000. Investment in the same region when gas does begin to flow during the middle of this decade the government is expected to receive up to 100000000000. 00 in revenue which is about 7 times the current size of its economy the biggest threat to these projects could be though the insurgency with the militants pledging allegiance to eisele in august the militants captured. A prayer a strategic port for the 3rd time this year theyll be numerous attacks in the cabin of god a region over the past 3 years become trees elite forces a guarding gas facilities leaving under trained soldiers to fight the insurgency the militants have seen off the kremlin backed guns for hire from the wagner group and in april the government handed dick Advisory Group to provide helicopters fitted with machine guns to support its troops and that with little effect and the insurgency could drag on in other nations 6 well more than 1500 people have been killed and at least 210000 have had to leave their homes and say this on joining me from johannesburg is piers begin piers is a Senior Consultant for Southern Africa for the International Crisis Group Welcome to the show 1st up these insurgent attacks are increasingly sophisticated how willing to pay to eyesore. With the 1000000. 00 question in many ways nic no one is really sure. I s. Central Africa Province which launched its franchise in april last year covering activities of the a. D. F. In uganda and the da can do see opened up the mozambican front in june last year and since then weve seen approximately 40 claims for attacks that have taken place in capital got up there in mind that 40 attacks out of a total of over 500. 00 attacks in the last nearly 3 years but as you indicate weve seen increasing levels of sophistication in the strategy and tactics of employed and some concerns about more sophisticated weaponry in play and this has raised questions about influence certainly we see the connection in the media jihad that has been at play attached to the claims of responsibility but the hard evidence of engagements. And actors on the ground is still speculative and no we know that civilians have been used as human shields by the own group nearly a 1000 have died but theres also this distrust between civilians and the military how much trust is there in the government itself. Well its a complicated situation and that part of the gutter the 5 provinces that are specifically affected contain a large number of people in those communities who have for some time being somewhat alienated in the sense of marginalization from Central Government there are ethnic religious and political dynamics in play here as well and there is some concern that. Elements of these communities are supportive of the Insurgent Group things although many respects you have to remember these are communities are caught in the middle of a burgeoning insurgency of violence and very nasty tactics that are being point by insurgents but also concerns about the buy lation that have been perpetrated by Government Security forces. Under the rubric of of their record insurgency strategy so theres a really serious set of challenges facing civilians trying to survive in the situation right there is bizarre and here is no because a potentially huge amount of wealth coming into mozambique and yet this is this area this whole area is one of the poorest parts of the country is this feeling of marginalisation is very much dr. Well you know there are different schools of thought in terms of how you weight all these different factors but certainly these background concerns have been in place for a very long time and are important contributing factors to understanding why there was this drift into. An insurgency which essentially started off as a sectarian sectarian tensions in the region between local muslim groups and has more now into this. Burgeoning insurgency the middle beacon military isnt well equipped one point that you run out of ammunition. But youve got these private contractors that the government is brought in but do we can we really understand can we get a grasp of what the government is trying to do. Well the government as you may have heard has been reaching out for assistance but it wants to develop that assistance on its own terms we see progovernment commentators saying we dont need boots on the ground from sadeq for example we need assistance in relation to intelligence cooperation improving surveillance maybe some bespoke contributions to Maritime Security those kinds of things as opposed to launching a battalion of set at base troops onto the ground certainly the Government Security forces are woefully. Ill equipped and not well led it would seem were talking about 2 arms of the Security Services the police have actually been leading the operation you have a kind of a Paramilitary Police operating area but the military are increasingly involved again but there are understandably tensions between these 2 elements within the Security Services then tensions within both of those sectors and this is feeding into challenges around command and control and bear in mind this is also hugely difficult logistical challenge maputo is is you know a couple 1000 kilometers away from from the scene of action and a lot of the supply lines are coming from from that far south in the country so this is a this is a complex situation the reliance on private military companies in particular the dike Advisory Group has been about providing some aerial backbone to the counterinsurgency threat but we now see that that has developed into some on the Ground Training for Ground Troops because thats been lacking having an effective. An attack an effective attack force that can take on the insurgents and that is what the dike Advisory Group i understand is now busy working on in terms of training right piers you mentioned start up that the Regional Organization know there is key issue here for Regional Security is an important they do get involved. Well yes it is but you know theres a kind of a sovereignty dance going on mozambique was pushed to the table really by the subjects. Security organ the organ for politics defense and security in may and in that meeting it was asked to develop a road map of how it felt the regional Member States could assist now thats back in may its almost 4 months later and that roadmap hasnt been put in front of sat at this is one of the reasons they had little more to say than the solidarity and and some kind of verbal support at the static summit last month and so the region is waiting for this and it really cannot impose itself on mozambique and in this context is that there is a sense that the region is dragging its heels but but essentially the drive must come from mozambique but there are also questions about the competencies and capacities of that it Member States to be able to offer assistance in a context where it is already overstretched in terms of its security. Competencies in the region it has troops in in the d. R. C. And in most instances the Security Forces have got significantly reduced budgets yet plenty of questions to be are thank you for helping us ill answer some of them p. S. P. Give. You. So now the dollar is taking something of a battering against a whole host of currencies the reasons the numerous the pandemic low Interest Rates patchy growth the feds decision to allow inflation to fly they all sound plausible until you start to think that all nations are going through the same predicament and some are in a worse position well the u. S. Currency is near its lowest level in 2 years its down about 10 percent from its 2020 peak against many of its peers and according to the chief Investment Officer of the currency manager 80 percent of the u. S. Currency will plunge 36 percent against the euro over the next year or so take it to levels its not seen in more than a decade Goldman Sachs predicts negative real rates in the United States are a sustained recipe for dollar weakness in forecasts the euro to trade at 1. 30 by 2023 at the Current Exchange rate of 1. 18 euro zone growth could take a hit of up 2. 00 of a percent and thats crucial as policymakers are hoping for a strong export led recovery to minimize job losses well that some of the predictions and lets put them to jimmy med who is the director Investment Strategy at the german founded platform naga 1st up give us a breakdown as to what the feds decision to allow inflation to rise what does that mean for the dollar. So its symbolic because the goalposts of change some adventure thats how it is no longer were going to look for inflation to reach 2 percent by the way this is something that hasnt been able to do for a decade but instead for as long as the economy benefits which means weve got Stronger Economic data i didnt know human is maximized to its full potential we would have a low inflation to go above 2 percent for as long as provides benefits that would be a fun sell for the u. S. Economic momentum but in a hypothetical world this should structurally and we can the u. S. Dollar hypothetical and what happens in reality is completely different this Financial Markets aflat they can blow hot water and they can blow cold water so what we did see an initially was the us dollar against a basket of different currencies now to its lows levels of over to get this this thats the euro region 1. 00 which is a surprise and to put 5 years but since against the dollar has actually been a little bit of a rookie style comeback if you like that sort of movie and since then the euro has fallen from 1. 20 to a size 1. 17 and british pounds but secondly fallow from just below 1. 35 to follow 130 so it comes down to whether inflation really does hit 2 percent in the u. S. Economy and whether that would happen anytime soon and the other place where the other Central Banks begin to play a game of copycat and this would determine whether the u. S. Public goes higher or lower over the long exam on an inflation question and whats your sense of that will they play copycat absolutely its possible look we have made an unprecedented time where you are seeing a pandemic was for mixing for 100 years economic everywhere suffering and what you do you know the economy is suffering so what i do think we asked c. N. N. Is the change of the textbook you have more conventional methods of the past we will get specific right to whats perhaps 10 in the pages dance a new book. Together and the world has to adapt to this isnt necessarily a bad thing but what it comes down to a slow is whether it does some sort of currency war or whether its a code all and whether economies are doing it for their own benefit because we want to see our own economy recover from what has been a horror or a fine us 6 months our food comes down some of its x x and if we do enter a mirror of currency wars what will that do to the global economy. Weve used the term turns you will at last over the past 56 years specifically trying to Trump Presidency but in fact what we are seeing here its not a currency war search because it is to get Economic Growth its not to be labeled as a currency manipulator grossing instead is in buying mix to improve the economies to have falling so sharply due to the pandemic so its not a concept will perhaps a bit of a code wall and if other countries do follow the path of actually trying to determine that by that currencies we could corner more currency for them but right now its not its another act of stimulus join very unprecedented and unconventional times so that would just has to adopt this an active stimulus maybe but the thing is if any other central bank was in attempting to increase inflation in this way that had an impact on the currency then washington would definitely label them as a currency manipulator when they are. Yes this is true but they got now as an f. B. I. Trick and answer mine about the truth is that what you wrote late code and yes the Us Administration fraud this oh Trump Presidency so has its im still a boot currencies and economy certain things but the reality in terms of market fluctuations has been completely different from the term presidency the us down essentially being significantly strong and has been as strong as levels at some points since before 2000 and sensibly much as you know a stronger dollar and because of the stronger dollar global currencies everywhere whether youre an emerging markets youre in south asia or youre in africa developed currencies the british pound euro or anywhere else in the world youve actually seen your currency be weakened less purchasing power against the u. S. Dollar because the u. S. Dollar has reigned supreme now for the past 5 or 6 years and perhaps that cycle does need to come to an end at some point but having said that even if the cycle does comes to an end we could all of this not mean stronger u. S. Economy necessarily because actually on an export level exports for the u. S. Economy much Something Like 12 percent but for countries like United Kingdom and for the opening Union Economy its double that and for some emerging markets is even more spectacular higher so its actually quite critical that the dollars able to remain strong and order the other currency at which to recover because the dynamics of every economy are different its all speculation isnt it but if this is the declining dollar is here to stay how long might it stand what impact would that have own economies here reliant on dollar investment. Its a great question my kids germany run in cycles it could be 5 to 6 years weve actually been in the cycle of a stronger dollar since the 2nd half of 2014 now any means today despite the fact that its dropped by 5 percent over the past 6 months is still only its weakest level in 2 and a half years to give you a little bit of perspective on this if were back in 2014 time british term was found about one cent in c. You had the euro which is but it closed at one full and see today that currency respectively expired at one under once 5 see anybody british pound is actually below 130. 00 so the dollar has remained strong and its the same of you know the australian currency youre seeing her and saying if your salvation specifically chinese yuan Malaysian Ringgit you have seen a stronger dollar profile for a number of years it would probably be in the best interest of the economic recovery following the pandemic and hope. To become the here or soon but it would have actually at the dollar can remain strong go for another couple of years time will tell of course in the devils always in the deep south but i dont see the change of the inflation tactic of the Federal Reserve essentially meaning that the dollar we can on headline and stay that way up to Central Banks will also have to move in accordance if you will about unraveling or that force appreciated. Now then an epic battle is brewing in the tech world that could challenge a do or pally and trigger a far reaching regulator investigations of the maker of fortnight that epic games is taking on apple in the courts over the i phone make his insistence that all software on its app store must pay a 30 percent cut of subscriptions apple kicked fortnight off its platform half to epic developed its own Payment System to buy part of a European Union is already investigating apple over its Payment Systems. Well joining me now via skype from london is piers harding rolls piers is the Research Director of games for analysis and paris so lets look at this epic is very clear about it it believes apple should be paid for distribution but as a company that made 1800000000 dollars last year it says that 30 percent is too high a price to pay do you think theres a Halfway House that could accommodate both parties possibly i think its a lot of pressure thats building on apple in the context of. The difference is that stations are going in europe and also other companies which are putting pressure on apple to reduce this the processing fee of 30 percent or so and apple is also had a history of compromise in terms of Subscription Services and its got its fear 30 percent to 50 percent after one year so there is a history there a compromise so possibly come to some arrangement around the cost of processing fees and all the while the regulators are watching this very very closely and they want to rein in the power of the Big Tech Companies what kind regulators do do you think. Yes so theres this and trust investigation going on by the e. U. Based on spotty biased complaints around at processing fees in europe. And obviously theres a general inquiries in the us around the potential monopolies of these companies and i think theyll just wait and see what happens in this private case in the context of epic an apple if its proven. Wins then obviously this gets more strength for. The United States bodies to act more aggressively in terms of this it in the big area where the gaming industry has really its had a great pandemic and there are people being at home again as being the means of a distraction to escape who have been the big winners. I think actually the whole industry as hers benefited really from people spending more time at home in our city or free time locked up. And looking for things to do and games has always been a high Value Proposition you know its not a lot of money not invested in the games experience and it gives you tons of hours of enjoyment so all the companies that have reported all the Public Companies are reported to have been reporting record or worse performances over the last couple of quarters and you know the industry as a whole has as entirely benefit its about i guess when we come out of this kind of lockdown environment its about how those Companies Continue to engage the users that health how much fresh into the game ecosystem and you know how do you keep that audience interested and engaged in the products right because theres a huge amount of money to be made isnt there and is being made by the likes of microsofts x. Box sonys playstation and nintendo but now netflix and amazon theyre trying to make an inroad in there what will that mean for the game industry. So theres a lot of destructive change going on in the sector one of one of the big areas of interest is have gaming and the provision of on demand services so kind of instant play access to games content that means potentially addressing a much larger audience of consumers with Higher Quality content you think about netflix obviously the situation video on demand service they have this history of reaching audiences as the globe or on demand content said that it seems that there would be a kind of fit in there sort of business trashy to start shifting into more progress and into more interactive content which they have been experimenting with and then on on amazons points they have those huge clappison this is the sort of underpinning of. These kind of on demand services where they have weaknesses i mean amazon doesnt really have the content play and the content capabilities that Companies Like playstation microsoft and then center have in terms of their studios to produce this content and the ip and then if you think about netflix it doesnt really have that expertise in the game sector or the the cow capability of someone like hammers and so both of those companies have we is but it does mean that the whole sector is becoming more competitive and the Biggest Technology companies i mean there is no tech not Big Technology company out there that is not interested in the game sector so it is a highly competitive space if you mention cloud gaming is not microsoft and samsung getting together on that whats it all about. So thats thats really a Marketing Relationship i would say. Theres benefits for both parties. From. It not so much of point of view basically they want to reach bigger audiences with their product so theyre reaching beyond the console platforms into as i was saying Gaming Services which reach mobile devices and obviously sampson wants to sell more my brand devices so theyre tied up this deal to the. Buyers of the new products and samples bringing to Market Access to experts again pass alternate which is their their Subscription Service which will be shifting into trout very shortly and from sampsons point of view theyre being competed with from our phone manufacturers that are producing. What we consider to be economic gain in phones which competes for a significant audience with samsons own products and samsung is looking to sort of position 8. Gaming capable and so theres this deal with a tiger so im a terrific analysis there has thanks very much indeed for that p. S. R. D. Rolls thank you thank you and that is our show for this week if youd like to comment on anything youve seen you can tweet me at Nick Clark Al Jazeera this use the hash tag a drawing from the city or indeed you can email us country cost at aljazeera dot net is our address and theres more for you on line aljazeera dot com slash so you can see that will take you straight to our page which has this in past episodes for you to catch up on. That is it for this edition of chronicle im a clown from the whole team thanks for joining us the news on aljazeera is coming up. Aljazeera girls beneath the waves with a team of women determined to save the dolphins share the same responsibility needed to something during a project amazing using a variety of scientific techniques to study their behavior we can monitor them for their vocal photos and behavior were able to how theyre adapting to their new environment women make science dolphin sanctuary on aljazeera. It could be the biggest lie in history. As powerful nations lay claim to territories under the ocean 21. 00 geologists are secretly bored. As the struggle for resources intensifies some of the worlds most powerful scientists speak out. Oceans manakin on a 0. All jews are with every. Back to bill in doha with a look at our top stories on aljazeera 25. 00 prodemocracy activists appearing in court in hong kong charged with taking part in an Unlawful Assembly these are live pictures from outside the court the accused are a kid theyre accused of joining a vigil last june to commemorate the anniversary of the 1989 tannen men square crackdown authorities didnt grant permission for the gathering citing
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