Is next on our list with 11 Electoral College votes to joe biden were also looking at new jersey i believe new jersey is our next state with 14 and then one more for the blue column at this stage it is rhode island with 4 so a bunch of blue states there projected for joe biden and a bunch of red states for donald trump 9 in alabama go to donald trump the state of mississippi as well with its 6 is with donald trump as is oklahoma with its 7 we will also look cat 10 a see 11 Electoral College votes will go to donald trump there as well so we can really going to be able to build the board up in a moment as well. We have gone to the district of columbia to bring in and that is to call it the stage actually but again that would be expected blue later on maine is too early to call with its 4 and remember those are not winner take all they would be split between the candidates possibly missouri is another state which is too early to call at this stage with its 10 Electoral College votes as is New Hampshire one of the states of course with the primaries and caucuses way back in january for their on off and then the big ones this hour of course pennsylvania 20 Electoral College votes remember donald trump carried this one by a very small margin back in 26 states that lets look at those numbers im going to help out the way so we can have a look at those numbers when they come in a state that had been democratic since 1902 and then donald trump went and did this have we got those numbers we havent got the. Its going to come tell you. There it is sometimes it just has to catch up as well 49 to 48 percent it was really close in vents of a year after barack obama had won fairly comfortably in his 2 runs in 2012 and in 2008 as well and then of course florida now florida is so interesting at the moment because of the sheer number of votes were getting in already it is too close to call we are now saying not to 50 almost 60 percent of precincts reporting the difference between joe biden and donald trump is 28000. 00 in favor of donald trump but that 60 percent represents more but so that 60 percent counted that represents more votes than were cast in the entire state of florida 4 years ago so that tells you the sheer number of people who have come out an early vote and my goodness that well they have been able to count them before the day and thats why were getting so many numbers out by now 60 percent of precincts are reporting in florida it is crazy raise that they in the margin 28000 to donald trump at the moment and those numbers coming down so quickly as well so lets go back to some states from some of our previous closing times virginia we can and we expected this but we can now put it into the column of joe biden the popular vote breaks down like that i need to explain this to you because that looks wrong it looks wrong weve got a blue take for joe biden even though hes at 39 percent and donald trump is at 60 the way that works is with 50 percent of precincts reporting the precincts which are yet to report historically we know those will go in the favor of the democratic candidate they are effectively the suburbs of washington d. C. And so the Associated Press is happy to make that call at the moment even though by the numbers that have been counted at the moment joe biden is behind so i just wanted to explain that because you possibly seen that at the bottom of your screen as well ive been wondering whats go. And on so thats for jenea South Carolina was an earlier state which was too early to call we can now put it in the column for donald trump as well i think were done with all of those which means we can put it all on the map and this is how it looks joe biden 85 Electoral College votes donald trump 55 of them and if i come in here this is where were looking florida we are now saying too close to call at this point with what i say 5960 percent of precincts reporting. It is 60 percent as it is now and pennsylvania too early to call at the moment the numbers 85 to joe biden 55 to donald trump and were going to look ahead yes because weve just got one more little dark so at 130. 00 g. M. T. As well thats the last of our half hour state declarations that will be a red state when the time comes. You did it you know i dont breath but im going to say its closing this hour and number is looking good for the biden camp cautiously. I just think floridas fascinating for us to be talking about this much of the vote at this point right and lets get some more now very close deja vu deja vu all over again all right lets get reaction from 2 main correspondents covering the Biden Campaign and the campaign can really help at the white house and a mike hanna in wellington delaware joe bidens home state might let me start with you. Said a bunch of states going to biden this hour but theyre being very cautious i imagine. Indeed yes come our running out of breath with the excitement even at this very early stage in the election run certainly the situation in florida very very interesting in terms of the buying campaign and neck and neck at this particular point once again weve still got a large amount of votes to be counted there in the wooden kahneman for joe biden this particular point no real surprises connecticut delaware illinois Mary Landrieu all predicted to go joe bidens way what is very interesting even at this early point as we heard from kemal there is the a number of electoral votes that have been gained by each candidate at this very early point 85 electoral votes to joe biden 55. 00 to donald trump so going well at this particular stage it would appear for the Biden Campaign as ive been saying repeatedly the campaign a rather silent joe biden has laid down the law it would appear early in the day saying that he will Say Something when hes got something to say obviously this message passing down to his spokespeople as well but they are encouraging signs even at this early point for the Biden Campaign for junior very much a tick in that particular column the prediction there showing biden as a winner but really the really key states are still to come florida of course absolutely seminal ohio really critical as well and one must mention with ohio that no republican candidate has lost that state and won the presidency so this is a key issue not only for the Biting Campaign but obviously as well for the triumph one but a results coming in a positive sign to a degree for the Biden Campaign nobody is getting ahead of themselves at this particular point i cannot in delaware can really help now at the white house for us can be 85 so financial College Votes going. Biden 55 to trump and as mike said the biden camp so far very cautious in staying silent when whats happening in the trump camp. Of the Charm Campaign is also being cautious weve heard very little other than a confirmation from one of the former advisers to the president Kellyanne Conway confirming that the president is likely to make some sort of address from the east room of the white house to American Voters this evening at least that was the latest word things are always subject to change but i think theres a sense that this is not the type of results of this campaign wanted to see so far we heard the president early on already starting to be acknowledging this possible and its so early but a possible one term presidency when he was talking publicly saying that he still felt things were solid but hours later saying he doesnt like to lose now to acco some of my colleague mike have his comments personally i watching 3 states very carefully because i believe that joe biden if he even when one of these states North Carolina florida or ohio that would be very good news but donald trump needs to win all of them and the fact of lorida is close is worrying for donald trump all right kimberly we will check in with you a little later think you for the moment now were getting reports sacked voters of the intimidated ahead of polls closing the harding a social media reporter is back with us what are you seeing the office you know fully well donald trump as we know has spent several months warning americans about mail and voter fraud but today americans are reporting that theyve received anonymous on abated phone calls telling them to quote stay safe and stay home listen to this. Kind. Hundreds of people on social media say that theyve received calls just like that over the last few days and no one seems to know who exactly is making them or where exactly theyre coming from the earliest online report of this particular call out was made exactly actually 99 days ago as you can see about 3 months ago on reddit users in the u. S. State of indiana said they received the call and opened up this form here while the Washington Post puts the numbers of people receiving this call much higher they say about 10000000 people have received calls like this to voters in just the last few days also encouraging them to stay away from polls or not attend a polling station until wednesday which of course as we know is a day after polls closed now one state in particular thats been targeted is michigan the Governor Gretchen Whitmer tweeted to her 400000 followers telling them to ignore the caution is a long thread about this she pledged on twitter to stamp out misinformation and emphasized the saying let me be clear if you plan to vote you have to do it today and michigans attorney general went on to remind voters of similar thing saying that Law Enforcement and different authorities do not Contact People through robo calls and urged residents in michigan to report any calls to a special hotline and the number of reports keep coming in voters in kansas florida and the biggest which is the biggest battleground state also say that theyve gotten the call several Law Enforcement agencies across the country are aware of this and an investigation has been launched into this in some states now if youve received a call like this let me know you can let our team know were all on social media my twitter handle is a j e. Thank you for that as we mentioned the polls have closed in the crucial battleground state of florida and were starting to see some results that check in with and began again in miami and fayne margin in florida weve been here before but 60 percent counted so far. Yeah i mean that was to be expected 9000000 people in this state voted early 9500000 people voted in the entirety of the 2016 election so voter turnout has been huge which means the numbers are coming in pretty quickly but lets talk about florida in a wider context this is a must win state for President Donald Trump no republican nominee has got to the white house in almost a century without winning this state now the areas were seeing going blue and red are the areas we saw go blue and red back in 2016 but the count is still coming in it looks like its going to be very very tight indeed so i would imagine the Trump Campaign is pretty nervous at this point because this is the state that donald trump must win this is dont trace Donald Trumps home state of course hes visit 14 times and the last few weeks joe bidens only been here about 4 times but with 29 Electoral College votes this is the biggest battleground state only california and texas has more so it is a simply a must win for donald trump so theres no way i mean it without a florida victory if its going to be very very complicated for him right. You know there are various routes to the white house for the former Vice President joe biden but without the 29 Electoral College votes this state has to watch for its really difficult for the president this is really down to the wire those polls closed in the Florida Panhandle about 15 minutes ago as i said the votes are coming in pretty rapidly because voting here was very well organized so many people voted early so i think within the next kind of 20 minutes hard for now well get much more of a clearer picture but i think the Republican Party and the Trump Campaign will be on the edge of their seats watching these figure. Roland were all on the edge of our seats waiting for florida to be projected in miami lets not go to castro in Houston Texas texas is closing its. In about 45 minutes or so i believe any early indications at all heidi that. Sure the vast majority of texas polls actually have already closed and the so far no surprises with these very early returns were seeing some about 10 percent of precincts reporting and joe biden is leading thanks to a boost from votes from the metropolitan area of dallas d which is to be expected much of the way that texas vote counting goes as the the early voting gets counted 1st and we know that this year that was a historic number of voters did vote early and it is expected that they will tend to favor democrats now the remainder of the votes that were actually cast today those will likely be counted a little later and youll see it on this map as more and more of the Rural Counties report their tallies that the number of votes according president troubles likely to take higher expectation here is that trump likely will still carry this deeply red state but the question is whether or not it will be a very small margin of victory in the polls coming up to this point saw that voters were putting joe biden just 3 points behind President Trump which in itself is an accomplishment given that texas hasnt supported a democratic president ial candidate in more than 4 decades but certainly there was excitement there remains excitement here on the ground in texas among democrats and you saw that as a driver behind the historic voter turnout the question though of course is whether more of those voters turned out in. Cities like houston and dallas would likely favor to biden or President Trumps rural fire wall of supporters in the more rural areas of texas whether they turned out to bigger numbers because certainly enthusiasm for trump also remains high in that region of texas. In Houston Texas thank you for the moment to come on is back with us with more on florida whats going on here i just want to kind of break down the numbers a little bit more geographically for you all because well florida florida florida its so so important at this stage too close to call with its 29. 00 Electoral College votes lets just check the running total as we have it the popular vote at the moment and we are now up to 72 percent reporting so far that is the margin for donald trump 164000 of what is that 10000010100000. 00 that have been counted so far and thats more than the total of last time state profile if we wouldnt mind just to have a little bit of a look here. And i actually want to come across the site and have a look at the map of florida i know its a bit small down here but i want to try to explain a little bit more of whats going on so right down in this area were talking about 3 counties Miami Dade Broward and palm beach joe biden is ahead there ahead of donald trump these urban areas remember strongly in areas which is what the democrats and joe biden needs biden is ahead of donald trump but trailing where Hillary Clinton was 4 years ago so hes not keeping pace with where Hillary Clinton was even though he is ahead of donald trump at the moment then over on the other side of the coast this here youre talking the city of some petersburg which is Pinellas County theyre only just ahead there and the prevailing theory is that joe biden needs to do well in a place like some petersburg and needs to do well in a place like miami if he is going to have a shot at those 29. 00 Electoral College votes so its just its so close and i would say not looking brilliant for joe biden at the moment but as i say what is still so amazing if we can come back to the popular vote for a 2nd here still what is so amazing is the sheer number of votes we have coming through all sort of wondering when would we get a count. On florida where weve got 33 quarters of the votes in 3 quarters and that margin of 170002 general trump is just starting to look folly a little more comfortable for him more comfortable for trump so we could get a florida result well i mean if you see how fast thats been trading up to 75 percent already so keeping a very close eye but i would say dont trump and his team maybe just feeling a little bit more relieved as much as you can in florida thank you as we start getting more results say its important of course to take another look at the most important states and why understand why theyre so crucial to victory so we go back to she have a tansey not d. C. Studio were standing by with a panel of guests to discuss these crucial states she have. Right the swing states florida of course being being one of the key ones were joined again by jove a victim professor of Political Science at george mason masons universitys school of policy and government. But it was strategist a former executive director of how it deems Political Organization democracy for america and joining us from algiers Washington Bureau journalist and host of the bottom line Steve Clemons brush of it i think overarching our discussion is this question of the polling that we were going in going into this into this election with which was completely wrong obviously 26. 00 you know we go to a viewer in in bangladesh and dhaka was just asking over twitter hows all methodology improve now can it catch the trunk of voters who are missed in 2016. Yes i want to quibble with the premise of the question just a little bit the polls were not terribly wrong in 2016 in fact most of the polls were pretty spot on they were calling that Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote by 2. 00 to 3. 00 Percentage Points and anomie and it was it was pretty close to spot on what happened in 2016 as there were 2 errors that were made and they were errors on the margin so the polls were off in those important states of consensual ania wisconsin and michigan where the vote was very very close and of course its much harder to get polling to be accurate in your close races and the mistakes that turned out to be me worried that the stamp of those that were drawn in the polls essentially over counted College Educated white voters and the pollsters at the time didnt really know that they were accidentally oversampling that part of the population compared to the voting population and once they figured out that basically everybody corrected their sampling procedure so that they wont have that same problem now that doesnt mean there isnt some other sampling problem going on that we are yet unaware of because of course the challenge when youre sampling for doing on these election predictions is yours asking people how they will them in the future which is a whole lot different than polling people about their pizza toppings you Something Like that and so its a tricky thing the other thing that happened with the polling in 2016 that our analysts have corrected for is that there was a fair amount of. We errors in the polls of the different states that i think didnt get accounted for a lot of those could i say that for us if it were that you broke up with that came from where youre explaining what was what was missed that what what what what what strange was phone. So that you things are they change the sampling system that were not stamped when the College Educated whites in the 2nd day of the 2nd one was about the correlations between the errors of the states that were incorrectly sampled rate so i dont want to get too far into the weeds of this bit but essentially it was correlations that were unaccounted for its really different state polls showed us out are you a democratic strategist is there is there a particular a particular phenomenon that would donald trump or that off we were often here that the shy Donald Trump Voter who were to actually admit that theyre going to vote for donald trump and then that specific that out polling companies actually is no longer also asking for us well who are you going to vote for and theyll find a 10 point lead with biden but then when they ask who is your social so who are going to vote for your friends and relations then theyll see that bitingly drop off off and then they wonder well about such a more accurate reading of where people where people are going to vote for is this a phenomena. There is now a strong evidence indicating thats a real phenomenon and this is been studied act quite a bit much 2 years back of anything jennifer is entirely right about the errors that were made in 26 team big difference now that i mean you learn from these mistakes the bidens among most of these demographics its been larger and steadier last year and last election cycle the voting populace is more all so theyre more i decided and theyre more decided this time around we dont see those trends so bit stronger trends the ones that we do take into consideration is it consistent a remarkably consistent i did sleep has been and that makes that Donald Trumps unpopular it has also been remarkably stupid especially when were talking about swing states than there in the midwest to pennsylvania the story was the those Blue Collar Workers the white workers without a callers degree who had voted for obama i was disappointed by him they vote for change they just got more of the same sort of renegotiating nafta they got the trials of the publisher of the outsourcing continued the baby votes of wall street continued. Donald trump only campaign trail this time around still even playing bernie sold his clips oh dont go drones always rallies where they are watching every one of those learn to bite and youll career politician your disinterest in wall street in outsourcing but was trouble ever able to to really cater to this demographic given he other one was saying im going to be with you with the work but also i love the stock market in the stock market is only successful when workers are getting paid less or you set up a vice that donald trump set up for himself theres no doubt that when you go talk to those machine workers in plants in Youngstown Ohio you go talk to people in the Agricultural Sector in the midwest they appreciate donald trump sentiment they do but they dont feel like hes moved the needle for them in any way and donald trump himself you know he would get really harsh with china on something and trade deals and it would send the stock market down he would lighten up you cant do really dramatic industrial policy shifts on behalf of a part of the country that has been left behind by the nature of our economics and turn around and Pay Attention the stock market the other day the stock market is going to go down and use had to say damn it its going to go down for a bit but he was unable to release himself from that graviton thats all very well professor victor but then the alderman was right and so they are trying disappoint of them as well but that wasnt necessarily enough to go back to joe biden with a proven track record all for new liberal Economic Policy but then cove it happens and that was the final straw what you make about all. Yeah i mean its really difficult to distort for n. C. A. A. The arguments about this from the arguments about the economy they really are intricately in twined and so for voters out there who are motivated to vote by their stance on the candidate stances on the economy to some extent thats a statement about response the other thing to keep in mind is in 20161 of the big narratives that came out of that election is that enthusiasm among democratic voters was just a little bit more depressed compared to the previous 2 elections in 22012 when when obama won and there just seem to be some evidence of some lack of enthusiasm among democratic voters and so one of the things that we want to be looking for in 2020 is relative to 26. 00. Which seems to be the one that has a little bit more enthusiasm a little bit more energy and am aware that turnout is for me as on the in the end though when we look at the swing states you know is the overwhelming question how white people seen enough. And there are more questions then just when people see not i think that we see remarkable turnout so far among young people across all races and people of color in particular. Yes there is certainly in suburban vote which sometimes just sort of reads as white people but it would better switching the number but there is a segment of the Democratic Party strategists whove been really focusing on expanding the electorate rather than going after insurance less it happened and the Biden Campaign has been able to do but the reason why you see places like georgia texas and arizona as actually reasonably head it is because weve been expanding our electorate not just thinking about waivers having not but also thinking about who else do we need to bring into the coalition how can we speak to learn her and larger communities it was interesting because you look at expanding the electorate for biden but then what were talking about there is a bunch of. Tech want to bring people going into the suburbs of georgia and texas and so im. Just centrist democrats that really expounding the Democratic Base necessarily all they just all just moving the centrists look i think our debate about it i think of me a little bit i mean were told by those trying to do is to reacquire democrats who used to be democrats so that who went with donald trump i interviewed joe biden in 2016 in the hillary race against trump and he said the democrats have become a party of snobs they have become distant from these people of course weve had the 0809 financial crisis people have lost homes for one ks lost a life a life savings etc and and donald trump i think its our shot hasan said earlier that you know joe biden wanted to commute empathy and concern for these people now im not sure saying tech entrepreneurs is going to do that and so you point out every i cant remember what i thought that iraq is yet another broadside of it you know coming back to get on the side of people who have had a hard time you know moving things forward and coming up with some semblance of a play. I have to give donald trump credit that he was able to emotionally bond with many of these people but he never brought a plan never did anything that would move them and their interest really forward the question is whether joe biden can do that now anything even call it was that the democrats have failed but that is one of them to go to replace it although it is it has to be said that after but you know after theoretically it was warmly welcomed by the trade unions all right well well look into those issues of polarization what is a Democratic Party why why is a democrat but you know of apology of snobs and thats what theyve got so much trouble in the past have taught us but we have a close friend coming on hes often talked about why working class voters in particular would vote for a billionaire like trump so do join us in about. Thank you very much for the moment we have more numbers coming in at 01 g. M. T. Is going to be closing its full 6 Electoral College votes up for grabs there weve had results starting to come in from florida everyone watching florida of course but a very close race there. At least 80 percent of the ballots have been counted in florida and so far as i was telling us sarah leah they seems to be favoring donald trump and the Republican Campaign in florida lets bring back once again and youre calling another state based on projections and you have updates on other states on the other swing states i would want to go back to those of course the ones which we were its too early to call them they are an al swing states list at the moment as far as one state to project at this hour and that is the state of arkansas with 6 Electoral College votes for dont trump will add that to the board a little bit later as i said though i want to go through some of these swing states which closed a little bit earlier starting with georgia and its 16 Electoral College votes lets have a look at the breakdown as it is right now. With 8 percent reporting and dont trump doing it well its a handy late isnt it a 56 percent to 43 percent but only 8 percent reporting at the moment in georgia pennsylvania well have a look at as well which we didnt have any information on early because again too early to call 20 Electoral College votes the popular breakdown looks like this at the moment with just the 5 percent and i know that looks really heavily skewed in joe bidens favor and supporters of biden would love to see that but only 5 percent reporting and that will be counting in the districts which are reliably blue pennsylvania will be tight it will be tight it is tight certainly was 4 years ago and it proved to be a very important state for donald trump ohio the state which i said it before which usually calls the winner. Too early to call at 18 Electoral College votes right now because its only one percent of reporting that is why it is too early to call joe biden ahead in the areas that have been counted 56 to 43 florida should we go to fly her again why not because we can just talk about florida or all night if we wanted fact and we may be 29 Electoral College votes in florida lets have a check in on the popular vote and see what changes have been made donald trump well its even more comfortable in that were now up to 77 percent of precincts reporting now that was at 72 percent i think the last time i looked at assets on the margin was 120000 or so really that is starting to widen joe biden not doing well enough in the urban areas he not only needed to hold the clinton numbers he needed to do a lot better and he is so far not doing that. Thats the state of the race right now 85 to 61 was starting to populate the board up a little bit with our red in our blue stars so at this point 8561 is where you would brew. Oddly expected because our other states have not closed yet or should say we havent got their projections yet this is what will happen in half an hours time this is another really really busy busy hour ones to watch texas obviously which we have put into our swing states our battleground states this year because of advances made by the democrats they usually such a reliable red state youll have a bunch of red states here through the midwest new york will be blue but then look at these 3 up here minnesota wisconsin michigan some of the states certainly wisconsin and michigan which put donald trump over the top 4 years ago let me just check my numbers for the hours of 200. 00 g. M. T. Chain states declaring that our so will be busy again next 4 will be very busy and who knows maybe this is not going to be the long night that we predicted if were starting to see a picture emerge in florida maybe we could have a winner by the end of the night i would never predict such a thing but youre absolutely right because florida is one which we will always said were going to wait were going to look and were going to and it could be the deciding one to have what was that 7778. 00 counted a red is right wouldnt come i will talk to you later florida but also pennsylvania is one of the states most likely to decide this president ial election lets check in once again with Christian Salome in philadelphia the polls close in pennsylvania i believe. We were looking at florida of poise a lot of focus to picture starting to emerge in florida what about pennsylvania. Yeah the polls have only just closed here and in addition to all of the ballots that were cast today the state now has to count some 2 and a half 1000000 mail in ballots and that is only just beginning that process not too far from here at the Convention Center we saw people lined up at tables beginning to take the bag. Its out of the on the lobes and start the process which can only begin on election day by pennsylvania law so this could take a while officials are predicting it might be before the end of the week before we have really clear results but its interesting to point out that democrats return nearly 3 times as many mail in ballots as republicans did that may be why president has been very worried about those mail and ballots and very disparaging of the process of counting them after election day he has been attempting to discredit or d. Legitimize those mail and ballots we also had an issue earlier in the day where a judge expressed concern about some missing mail and ballots and has ordered about 2 dozen Mail Processing centers to be searched for possible missing ballots all of that said i spoke to some voters here in pennsylvania that lined up early to cast their ballot and they told me that just motivated them to get out more and make their voices heard they were lined up early the polls were less busy later in the day but people are speculating that is because there were so many mail in votes especially here in philadelphia an urban center that leans democrat and as i said had a lot more mail in ballots but the polls here in pennsylvania have been heavily favoring joe biden. But that was also the case back in 2016 when Hillary Clinton was shown to be a hadnt expected to win here and then President Trump pulled off an upset and won by just 44000 votes neither candidate seems to be taking pennsylvania for granted we saw them here and president inordinate amount of time in pennsylvania president made 13 visits to the state biden made 16 visits to the states he was here just today on election day trying to. Rally the support behind him it just shows you how important they think pennsylvania is all right kristin in pennsylvania philadelphia thank you for the moment as you heard from chris and their concern about maine invalid c. In pennsylvania theyre also concerned about mail in ballots in nevada there are reports that the campaign and the nevada Republican Party have actually filed an emergency motion to limit the processing of mail in ballots that speak to rob reynolds about this rob what more can you tell us about this motion. You may recall that a few days ago President Trump said he would deploy an army of lawyers to all of the swing states to dispute the results of they did not go in its favor it looks like one of the divisions of that army has now descended on clark county nevada that is the home of las vegas its the largest Population Center in the state of nevada with its 6 electoral votes and what has happened is that the Trump Campaign and the nevada Republican Party filed this emergency. Motion with the state Supreme Court asking them to delay the counting of mail in ballots as always the mail in ballots have been a very serious point of contention so this was a motion that was made earlier to a state judge he summarily dismissed it on monday we dont know what of course the state Supreme Court will do but the. The this is of course literally at the last hour or so well have to see if the state Supreme Court makes a ruling it could be a sign i think that the campaign is a little nervous about nevada the president lost the votto in 2016 nevada would be good insurance or cushion especially if trump does not do well in some of the states that will be seeing later on in the midwest and in pennsylvania but it could be a sign that hes somewhat nervous about this and this could be one of the 1st big volleys of legal actions and lawsuits and court fights that could tie up some states results for days or even longer kind of wreaking havoc with the whole process. All right rob thank you rob i know its in an assigned genest lets discuss this issue of mailing. Alice a bit more now with lara brown is joining us from washington d. C. Shes director of the graduate school of political management at George WashingtonUniversity Mail in ballots of course are not new but this year weve had a flood of mail in ballots how much does this complicate the vote tallies well so it really depends on the state as to how complicated it is you know as weve seen in florida many of those ballots were able to be counted and processed early and so tonight weve seen a flood in those results we are also though looking at states like pennsylvania like michigan and wisconsin where they had a much more narrower date range when they could begin to process those ballots and what that means is taking them out of their envelopes checking their signatures making sure that their lane flat so the machines can actually count them those things do take some time and this is why were likely to see those rust belt states michigan and wisconsin and pennsylvania taking at least a couple days to count all of their votes do posts all ballots lead to voting fraud as President Trump has claimed. Certainly not we have not seen any real instances of fraud in the United States that is a very much a canard that people who are concerned about people vote. Put it out there there really is no fraud in the United States to speak of and interesting lee enough the last time someone did try to engage in some mail fraud it was in fact a republican consultant in the state of North Carolina in a congressional race that led to that race having to be run so it is not something that happens in a widespread fashion it really is not something one should conserve themselves with i do want to just point out for a moment ive noticed you havent really discussed North Carolina the cif and North Carolina is another one of those states on the east coast that the president must win and in addition to florida and georgia there really are not many paths for the president if he doesnt win those 3 states that i won in 26 to North Carolina will be speaking to our correspondent there very shortly given elizondo i do i do want to talk to you about pennsylvania though because as weve heard from christian salumi theres a concern there about male invalid ballots and democrats return nearly 3 have returned nearly 3 times as many mail in ballots as republicans in pennsylvania i believe and i wonder how thats going to pay out when you know the final results come in from pennsylvania are we going to see some sort of mitigation there from the republicans. We may see some litigation but the truth is is that the courts have sided with counting the ballots so im not worried about whether or not pennsylvania will be allowed to count their ballots they officially have ballots that are able to arrive up to 3 days after the election day and pennsylvania should be allowed to count their ballots if you listen to their secretary of state or their Lieutenant Governor that has been a very clear point of contention on their part its also the case that overall in pennsylvania even though theres been a large number of mail and ballots for that state because the state doesnt have that tradition in the way they say the florida does it is still the case that the vast majority of ballots in pennsylvania will be in person votes and those will be counted thank you so much for talking to us lara. Brown in washington d. C. There professor at George Washington university we appreciate your insights what we talked about here North Carolina there with professor brown and North Carolina of course is a closely fought swing state and the 1st to actually kicks on the 2020 race with maine voting and polled said just close over an hour ago lets bring in gaven elizondo who is covering that patch of the u. S. Forces in new york North Carolina concerns in North Carolina there was a delay in releasing results set expected a delay whats the latest from where from North Carolina as far as you know. Well weve been watching very closely the last half hour or so the results that are coming in very quickly from North Carolina youre right they were delayed about 45 minutes just because of a couple polling stations that had some. Technical difficulties that got sorted out nothing major the results are now coming in and they are significant and they are looking very good for joe biden early let me give you the numbers and then i want to give you a cab to these numbers im about to give you with a little over 50 percent of the vote coming in from North Carolina joe biden has 52 percent donald trump at 46 percent joe biden has 2000000 votes about donald trump about 1800000 votes so. Biden leading trump by about 200000 votes with still about about 3000000 more votes to count so the good news here for joe biden is that he has a fairly significant lead with about half the votes counted in North Carolina thats the good news for joe biden and thats why a lot of his supporters are taking to social media saying well this is looking very good however the caviar it is is North Carolina it counts the mail in ballots 1st and then it will count the same day voting ballots and its expected that most of the people that voted today or at least what were told is probably will lean republican so we expect that this will tighten up in the coming hours or so as more of the votes are tallied but right now looking very good for joe biden and this is a critical state for both candidates because as you mentioned its a swing state its got 15 electoral votes and this is a state that only 2 times since 1076. 00 has it voted for a democrat for president so if biden was able to win it we dont know yet that would be a major major victory for joe biden again about 50 percent of the votes in so its far from over a good signs early for joe biden from all very good science North Carolina gave has voted republican as you say. No but one of the last for president tony next season and it could be decided by rich communities come out in vote numbers came out in votes numbers in greater numbers we talked about early voting what about the turnout today on election day what was it like and who were the people who voted on election day. In general about 8000000 people of vote in the state of North Carolina so it appears that they got a little less than that but were seeing an initial numbers anyway it was about 7300000 people in North Carolina cast their ballots this was a state that was republican for a very very long time but the demographics have been changing over the last few years with more immigrants moving to North Carolina and also retirees lottery tyreese from the west california oregon elsewhere that are traditional democrats that have been moving North Carolina so this is a state that democrats have been looking at closely for the last couple president ial election cycles traditionally a republican stronghold but now youre starting to see this become more of as they call a purple state if you will with democrats doing a little bit better now but this is still make no mistake about it if biden was to win it would be considered a take away from donald trump because 4 years ago donald trump beat Hillary Clinton in North Carolina so the interest in that state is very high as you mentioned they started early mail in ballot voting very early as well those are the votes that are being 1st released right now but this was a state that obviously saw a lot of interest in this election and a lot of attention by both biden and Trump Campaigns came in and in new york thank you for the moment lets hear from kmov once again on some of the most important swing states in this 2020 election including texas where results immanent take a look. Right were going to take you around 5 specific battleground states this time 5 states which when you put them all together account for 85 Electoral College votes we have got arizona and texas and then well head up to minnesota wisconsin and michigan as well lets start with arizona and its 11 Electoral College votes not necessarily one of the big big prizes but a reliably republican one its back to the red candidate all but once since 1952 so the fact were talking about it as a battleground is significant have a look 2000 to 2008 these are big republican wins easy easy whims but in 2016 donald trump he won but he finished only a little over 3 percent ahead of Hillary Clinton that has a lot to do with arizonas growing hispanic population 23. 6 percent which is a sizable chunk of the states eligible voters and now potentially emerging as a Democratic Base i want you to watch out specifically for America County this includes phoenix and the surrounding urban areas it accounts for most of the votes in the state so whoever wins there usually carries arizona lets head east now to texas yes texas the epitome of the south the big red state with 38 Electoral College votes is now orange were talking about it as a battleground which is really quite something youve got to go back 44 years to find a democratic winner in texas for the record jimmy carter 976 but in the past few elections it has been no contest republican republican all the way last time though Hillary Clinton narrows the gap its less than 10 percent now which is still a big gap but comparatively speaking its really coming down once again the states demographics are rapidly changing it now has americas 2nd largest hispanic population the cities are growing fast and they are leaning toward. The democrats big metropolitan areas bring them up on the map for you here Houston DallasAustin San Antonio and all the suburbs around them these may hold the key if the democrats are to do well in texas up to minnesota now where the republicans are hoping to move one of the socalled blue wall states over to the right 10 Electoral College votes here minnesota has always backed the democratic candidate since 1976 solid blue wins since the year 2000 until 2016 when donald trump significantly narrows the margin against Hillary Clinton to just one and a half percent now well head over to michigan not far away an important hub for the auto and Manufacturing Industry it has 16 Electoral College votes. And these are easily been the democrats in 1988 no problems for Al Gore John Kerry or barack obama but this was the 26th change shock donald trump reversing the trend beating Hillary Clinton by what was the slimmest margin anywhere on the night that is just 0. 2 percent and finally wisconsin the state which has 10 Electoral College votes the votes which put trump over the top in 2016 wisconsin had again voted democrat since 988. 00 very very similar to the way michigan voted but trump broke the blue streak he won by less than one percent it was very very close the also great pennsylvania which cemented the republican position in this part of the country just want to bring up wisconsins 2016 electoral map as it finished typical of so many 2020 battleground states that sea of red its rural the voters there are mostly white the smaller blue areas yes theyre smaller but those are the cities theyre densely populated they are much more diverse so you see just from these 5 states there is a lot at stake for these 2 candidates if some of these states flip especially the likes of arizona and texas then we could be looking at a complete rewriting of this american political map. Well lets discuss Foreign Policy some more now and the result of this election will have a Significant Impact on iran they could even be 4 more years of maximum Pressure Campaign or under biden the possible return to the 2015 nuclear deal youll remember that trump withdrew from that and reimpose u. S. Sanctions on iran to discuss this im joined now in new york by Nancy Soderberg once again who is a former Clinton National security official in washington d. C. We have James CarafanoVice President of the katherine and shelby column Davis Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy at the Heritage Foundation which is a conservative think tank and once again a senior political analyst. And see let me start with you donald trump pulled out of course of the nuclear deal the. Declared a policy of maximum pressure on tehran but they have been no concessions from iran and no regime change as hed hoped or did the administrations approach fail. We are less safe with iran then we were when don chung took office the Iran Nuclear Deal is far from perfect but it did the iranians effort to reach a clear capacity we are more divided from our allies on that and iran is restarting its effort to create a Nuclear Weapon what we need to do under joe biden is work again with our allies and see if theres a way to improve on the previous deal make it very clear that theres some of the other issues the missiles the Breakout Sessions the length of the time there were some problems that maybe we could make lemonade out of having pulled out of this agreement and get an Even Stronger deal i think the allies and iran is going to welcome a return to a more constructive relationship with the United States thats not trying to minimize the challenges of dealing with this regime in iran but i think joe biden will understand that a an iran with Nuclear Weapons is more in their interest than one with one just what were headed for now James Carafano nancy says that the u. S. Has less safe today on this iran issue than it was. Before the u. S. Pulled the nuclear deal would you agree with that. Well i mean we have completely different assessments of whether the Iran Nuclear Deal was a good deal or not or whether its a fact of when honestly thats ancient history i think the reality is either in a 2nd trump term or in a presidency just going back to the iran deal is much more difficult than it sounds theres a lot of iranian cheating that would have to be accounted for im not sure anybody super excited about lifting the arms embargo people can still concerned about the Nuclear Program and i think this is key i think north korea and iran are linked together you cant give one country a sweetheart deal and then expect the other to denuclearize and i think that works both ways so i think whoever the president is in january i dont think i think americas going to have to hold out for a stronger you know than we had before now on your thoughts jane says said the 2050 nuclear deal was a sweetheart deal for iran and that returning to it wouldnt be a good idea would would you agree with that well let me just say 1st that iran is not north korea iran is not a Nuclear State iran has not is not developing a nuclear bomb and iran has been on their sanctions to make sure that its for the foreseeable future that it would not even touch it there were there were more oversight over iran than ever before i think that deal with all its shortcomings did work and we had less Regional Power with the capacity for Nuclear Weapons for example like israel which of course no one talks about but be that as it may i think after that the iranian elections next year were going to if theyre going to be a by the administration we going to have to go to some kind of a deal or sort whether its going to be strictly nuclear or nuclear plus plus meaning missiles that if it assisted us or so forth there are many. All but all of you all of the region work by jim wallace who would reach right theres a nuclear deal marwan but also weve had we had a big event earlier this year in the assassination of costs and sort of money at the head of irans elites could 4. 00 could force and at the time everyone thought that this would be the big event of 2020 and then we have the pandemic of course even if a biden ministration comes in can they be a detente with iran. Yes that could be its been clear now after 40 years of sanctions and tensions that there is no theres no another way than to deal with iran just like us to deal with turkey they quote of course as a nato member and look in the middle east that our forefathers today to mine that once so would you any bia with a bit more stronger israel and then there is iran and the United States are going to have to deal with the Regional Powers that i think in or iran is going to ignore turkey and its course is going to have to get you good with israel and saudi arabia so all in all without iran and without dealing straightforward with iran were not going to have stability in the persian gulf or day out of gulf were not going to have stability in the middle east thats going to be necessary if youre going to have some sort of us that beneath in the region youre going to have to deal with a liar and i think the nuclear deal or some version of is going to be necessary in order to listen to tensions and open the way for more urgent issues such as ending the war in yemen and the war in libya ending the war in syria and so on so james what do you say to that the u. S. Has to deal with compared to difference about the efficacy of their arms but we actually all agree that a half hour is a stronger deal a deal that bring stability to the region a deal that brings confidence to the other neighbors the europeans dont i think that they want to be negotiating this year and i think that report from the United States regardless of the election that the u. S. Is european allies dont want to renegotiate this deal. Well thats actually not true i mean when President Trump 1st came into office the europeans and the trumpet ministration had a very much different style about renegotiating the deal now they didnt agree. But they agreed to discuss renegotiating and you know i dont think the europeans are ever thrown but they dont yet with and i think again we all agree that the only practical way forward is a deal that that reassures all the members in the neighborhood and create stronger guarantees against corporation i think thats about all right nancy briefly ill give you the last word joe biden tell approaches bill that better and i think this will be a case where were trying to have a new deal of the crews on the older lets stronger support and start of. The world d that wants to get back to. Negotiations on this major problem and i think that he did want to thank you all James CarafanoNancy Soderberg marwan bashara it is now exactly 2 g m t and the polls are closing right now in 14 more states come out is packed with projections im excited to take about texas and well come to that last one patient patience hello everyone no 200 hours g. M. T. 9 pm on the u. S. East coast and can i just also say 5 am here in doha a lot of people in this newsroom in those control rooms over their work and really big shout out to all of them in these early hour winds right