Transcripts For BLOOMBERG The Pulse 20240622

Welcome to the polls. Life from bloomberg headquarters here in london. It is jobs day in the u. S. Forstors will be searching meaning in the numbers ahead of the september Federal Reserve meeting. It may not be super thursday, but the u. S. Has key Economic Data on friday. The next to last jobs report before the Federal Reserves meets in september. The economist we raised we theeyed, predicts with unappointed rate Holding Steady at 5. 3 . As long as job growth and maintenance trend, with an average growth of 200,000, economists inc. The Federal Reserve will raise rates as early as september. Showed calls it a case of me why i shouldnt. One of the reasons the fed shouldnt is because of wage rates. The average will rise 0. 2 . And 0. 3 yearoveryear. Growth and pay is the one missing factor that would help push inflation up to their 2 target rate. Last week there was a negative sign for wages. The employment cost index which measures hourly pay an annual salary rose in the Second Quarter as dennis at the slowest pace on record. Well see if that picks up in july. The jobs data is due out at a 30 a. M. In washington dc. I will be there to bring you the numbers. Back to you. Francine julie hyman there. Lets get more with anthony doyle. Anthony, great to have you on the program. Things for coming in. It is a momentous day. U. S. Jobs, are you expecting them to beat consensus . Would you be more on the bullish side . Anthony when it comes to forecasting, it is a guesstimate. Overd 200,000, the average the last three months is about right. We much prefer to concentrate on the Unemployment Rate and the earnings rate will be as well. Francine it is wage growth as well. If you look at the u. K. Versus the u. S. , figures are similar. Wage growth that we saw again yesterday from the bank of england. In the u. S. , it seems to be stuck. Yellen, she puts so much emphasis on wage growth. Today is as important as youre going to get. You have the economic consensus saying we will move in september. You have the Market Pricing in a 5050. I think that janet yellen is on she does want to see the whites of the eyes of inflation. Francine when are you expecting a rate hike . Is there a date when it will be too late . Anthony i think the market is overestimating the potential for a fed rate hike in september. I think the fed as you have seen , i dont think that policy is preemptive. I think they watch the data. I dont think they data is strong enough. Know everything is data dependent. Apart from the strength of the dollar, it seems the data saying less go for it. Anthony i see this argument that we need some ammunition in our back pocket. That seems crazy to me. If you have to reverse policy six months down the line. They are concerned about the rise in u. S. Dollars. Have you ever seen the fed hike rates when the inflation is. 3 or below 1 . Ive never seen it. Francine i have never seen Interest Rate environments like this. Yellen wouldink prefer to see it on the head. The mark was running around like crazy, saying hang on, you signal it came down to bernanke he explaining we watched the data. I dont think its their, particularly with the global backdrop. Francine china concerns or the turmoil we saw will weigh on her mind. How do you traded . Anthony i think the dollar euro is going to parity. Whether that is in the next three months or six months. That said, the fed is first in line to hike prices, whenever that is. You dont want to stand in the way of a rising dollar. As we have seen, it is the strong as currency in the world. Francine there is definite parity in the next six months. Theony definitely, given contrasting stances and Monetary Policy. Francine where d. C. Sterling . Yesterday, we had a neutral super thursday. Its very clear he is worried about the rising pound. Anthony i am worried about a falling pound. On u. K. Economy is dependent capital inflow. ,e have a break in referendum whether it happens next year or the year after that could court volatility. He has been worried about a rise in sterling and the impact on inflation. However, sterling is vulnerable and longer terms. Francine what is your favorite trade . When you look at yields, treasuries, guilds. If theres one thing, what is it . Anthony it is a nonconsensus call. Valuations are too low however, i think the parity trading, eurodollar, is something very interesting to look at. Francine think you so much for joining us. Thank you so much for joining us. Heres a look at what else is on our radar. Kick off stock index, showcasing japans best companies after a 1. 2 billion managers overstated profits. Shira is being removed from the nikkei index. The bank of japan has held off from monetary stimulus as kuroda from its softerge patch and inflation picks up. The Central Bank Increases the thats 640e, million. German industrial inflation unexpectedly decreased in june. Weaker growth and a emerging market country. Help adjusted. Output adjusted. Estimates. S beat profit up 15 . Alianza profit beats estimates. We spoke to the chief earlier and he highlighted how and just rates will affect. The Interest Rates are at the level we had in december, before christmas. They are in line with our expectations. Rates gher interest bond rates will move quite a bit. Francine shares in by come have plunged the most in seven years after the owner posted a thirdquarter revenue decline more than expected. Sales fell 11 , just over 3 billion. The results marked by comes fourth straight decline in u. S. Advertising sales. North korea is moving its time later. It will come into effect on august 15, on the 70th anniversary of koreas break from japan. Now it is five months until the iowa caucuses. The curtain raiser for both parties is 17 hopefuls are vying to be a republican choice. Last night, the highs contenders took to the stage. The current frontrunner, donald trump, managed to get the first and last word. Here he is talking about immigration. We need to build a wall. It has to be built quickly. I dont mind having the big beautiful door, so that people can come into this country legally. We need jeb to build a wall. We need to keep the illegals out. Francine former White House Correspondent hans nichols was watching for bloomberg. I actually enjoyed it. It was more like a reality tv show. Trump. Ame out hans there were theatrics. It was fun to watch. It was compelling television. A big win for fox news. Their moderators are getting praise. In part, no one really made any big mistakes. None of those viable candidates made big mistakes. You saw mr. Trump talk about you potentially go about how he would potentially go run as a thirdparty candidate. That could come back to haunt him. What some of the candidates are doing is turn this into more who is best suited to challenge Hillary Clinton. Marco rubio, here was his answer. Be ais election cannot resume come edition. It is important to be qualified, but if this election is a resume competition, then Hillary Clinton will be the next president , because she has been in government longer than Anyone Running tonight. The selection better be about this election better be about the future. The irony is that there that they are important in primary politics, when you look to the general elections, it is rarely determinative and who the ultimate winner is going to be. In the primaries, they do matter. I dont think this on will matter, because in part there were no mistakes. We will look to see who from under from the undercard debate vaults into that top stage. Francine . Francine thumbsup hinted that he could run as an independent, right . Donald trump hinted that he could run as an independent, right . Hans i would i go that far. There are two things you need to take into account. One, he could be a problem for the Republican Party, even if he leaves. Two, he did receive some boos and jeers. Three, think that he is tapping into anger and need among primary voters about the direction their country is going. Listen to how he talked about immigration and try to hear if you can can capture some of the cheers that that response received. Our leaders are stupid. Our politicians are stupid. The Mexican Government is much smarter and they send the bad ones over, because they dont want to pay for them. They dont want to take care of them. Why should they, when the stupid leaders of the United States will do it for them . That is what is happening. Have one applause , but the question is will that hinder a republican in the general nomination . Every strategist you talk to says the republicans have to do better with hispanics if they have any hope of capturing the white house. Francine hans, thank you. That brings us to our twitter question. Can you see donald trump as the u. S. President . Ive had loads of tweets. It is funny, because we are based here in london. Im seeing tweet us. Up next, first half profit almost tripled, how . We will tell you after the break. Francine welcome back to the pulse. We are live on bloomberg tv. We are streaming on bloomberg. Com, your tablet and your phone. Results for a live irish banks which has tripled its profits. To 7 millionfour euros earlier. Little bit us a earlier. Quite the performance we had today shows that we can support a variation of the capital structure. Some of it will need to be converted into equity. Some of them can be redeemed. Us is debraining doyle. What does it tells about fundamentals . Back. Take a step aib was a true basket case after the financial crisis. Euros. Ion is theve seen today profit has tripled. That reflects an improving economy. Some of its bad loans. Unemployment is down. The economy is improving. The results today reflect an improving Irish Economy. There are still problems in the bank here it mortgages are improving. Lots of arrears there. An upward to decorate for the bank. Francine what next for aib . Dara this is a bank that is 99 owned right there government. The desire between the government to get this bank off the books before the election. A stock process that could start before november. Others have said it could drift into next year. According to the ceo today, the improving results might bring that process forward. I think that will be up to michael new in. Francine thank you so much. Up next, now that the city has had time to digest the data dump. What are the Key Takeaways . Francine welcome back to the pulse. Live from bloomberg tv. Streaming on your tablet, phone and bloomberg. Com. Bake of england may be inching towards a rise. Of when thatcation will happen. Mark carney says it is creating a drag on prices. At the meeting yesterday, the mpc voted by majority to maintain bank rates at 9. 5 . He Committee Voted Unanimously it reaffirmed its expectation that when bank rates rises occur they can be expected to be limited and gradual. Nearterm outlook for inflation is needed. The falls and Energy Prices will continue to bear down on inflation, at least until the middle of next year. Nonetheless, a range of measures suggests that mediumterm inflation educations were made. Sterling has depreciated 3. 5 since may. 20 since march 2013. The drag on import prices will continue to push down on inflation for some time to come. Using a Downside Risk to its nearterm path in particular. Expansion. Progresses, speculation about the precise timing of the first move in bank rates increasing. This is understandable. It is another welcome sign of an economy that is returning to normal. The likely timing of the first Bank Rate Increase is drawing closer. However, the exact timing for the first move cannot be predicted in advance. Francine economists have had time to digest. We talked to chief economist jamie murray who is one of the one i have spoken to who dicted the a to one votes the 8 to 1 votes. You think we lost the more key messages on forecast inflation . Jim eco jamie that is the risk of publishing at the same time. The markets did Pay Attention to the minutes, when really they should be more of the inflation report. The analysis and judgment is displayed. Difference. Ittle theyve got inflation at 2. 1 . They are describing a tradition of excess demand. Francine it is data dependent. How much are they looking at sterling . Jamie sterling tends to drop after a year or so. That is the banks target horizon. It should have an immediate effect on the outlook. There is no evidence of that happening. Francine when are we expecting the first Interest Rate hike . Not exactlyit is possible to predicted with confidence. Jamie murray there. Up next, jobs day usa. What might we expect . What could the implications be . You can follow me on twitter. Jamie is also on twitter. You are at . Tweet us, check them out. Well talk about donald trump next. Welcome back to the pulse. Live from bloombergs European Headquarters. I am francine lacqua. Here are bloombergs top headlines. The bank of japan has held off for expanding as kuroda bets the worlds third biggest economy inflation will go up. The book and president ial hopefuls faced their first republican president ial hopefuls face their first debate. Donald trump has upended the upendedut customer the race with customers a comments about immigration and veterans. The u. S. Jobs at 1 30 u. K. Time. Comes as the Federal Reserve policymakers stress importance of job markets in terms of raising rates. U. S. Media shares retreated for a second day in the biggest twoday selloff since 2008. More than 60 billion were lost with worries about the health of cable tv industries. Userse had quite a few desk what if you losers. A twoday route after the close of disney. It spread to other television companies. You can see them here, quoting reports from cbs, 21st century fox. Profits were propped up by stocks buybacks buy stock buybacks. We saw the s p 500 media index drop 8. 2 in two days. You can see that dropped right there at the end. Biggest slump since 2008. That drop erased all of the gains from this year for this index. Returns ofd and life more than 33 since 2009. Until today, media shares in the u. S. Were not just highperforming, they were the best performing of the u. S. Bull market. Even better than technology and biotech stocks. 650 billion market. That is what we were talking about. That value beginning to evaporate. Almost 50 billion of value erased in todays. Im talking about disney, time warner, fox, cbs and comcast. Yesterday on viacom dropped or team percent on yesterday. We are seeing the spread into european stocks. Media stocks in Europe Thomas some of the biggest recliners on the equity has mark this morning. Francine thank you so much. Some of the big movers in terms of some of these media stocks. Coming up after the break, are you bullish . Bearish . We find out from the jobs data. Well have more on that next. Back to thelcome polls. Live from bloombergs london headquarters. U. S. Jobs it is out later today. Employers are projected to add jobs in july. The data comes as policymakers express the importance of the job markets in terms of raising rates. Fx oined by the head of marvin, it is great to have you on the program. Thank you so much. U. S. Jobs, it is really big data. It is important, because it is data dependent. It may be more dovish. Marvin that is the key issue. Want to see they want to seek raise on growth. That is really about where inflation is going to be a year or two down the road. The model was suggest it will be higher. It has been wrong so far. Much lower than expected. But they want to see is if we have the momentum in the economy to sustain left off. Then we will take a slow measured half. We think they are going to go this month. Were expecting to hundred where expecting to a jacuzzi 200,000 new jobs. That is a very good number. Francine you are expecting a hike in september . Marvin yes we are. I dont think its a risk. I think the fed is going to look at this as a risk reward thing. What they think about is look, we have an economy that is rapidly closing any gap in employment. That is going to put pressure in the future. We need to start preparing for that today. Concerned that we have not seen the amount inflation that we would have otherwise expected. We want to take a cautious approach. If they find they are wrong, i dont think theyre going to be. Francine we have turmoil in china. Something the fed must be looking at. Marvin the key issue in china is the stock market does not have that much of an impact. Francine out 7 it is what we dont know. Marvin exactly. Theybodys concerned about slower than expect it growth. Weve had higherthanexpected calls over the last year for Monetary Policy easing. We have been surprised on the upside of that one. If youre sitting in the ftse, you have to be worried about that. Is a much bigger issue for them. That is where it china comes in. I dont think that dissuades them in this meeting. They see their own economy tied. Francine what about wage growth and productivity . Wage growth here in the u. K. Is lower. Marvin wage growth everywhere is have wage growth everywhere has. In thats falling faster than centralbank expected. We have seen an acceleration in the u. K. The is one of thing that nbc pointed out yesterday. Basically, completely offsetting. In the u. S. , we have seen slower than expected wage growth. Were twook, there categories that were dragging down the overall number. The underlying trend was rising inconsistency with what were seeing in the job market. Cane inflation is the world, and im not thinking about the u. S. , take a fed rate for . Marvin ready i thought Jeremy Grantham quoted in the paper yesterday as saying, the last time we were in the situation, we were in a highly endeavored world, the fed had raised rates 60 times before the bubble finally popped. Now we worried about one rate hike . There is some difference here. I dont think one move will be the key issue. This is what the fed was worried about. I think they did a great job at this in the march meeting is pulling back peoples expectations. Theyre going to do 300 more after that. They said no, come down. Were moving at a slow, measured pace. They did a mess for job of curtailing the potential. Think it is going to be that significant. Francine are we looking for eurodollar parity . Marvin we are actively forecasting . 95 a year from now. We have been in this cap for a wild. It has been about policy diversions. In return to capital in the u. S. Is much higher than the euro area. As a result, because those are the holes in the world in terms of the weakest economy versus the strongest, in terms of marginal sources of growth. Hat is what drives echo i was expecting a three month ago. Then it dovetailed off. Francine i was expecting a three month i was expecting it three months ago. Then it does then it dovetailed off. where do you see the high return to capital on underlying investments . You see it in the u. S. It will happen faster with the hike. All of the right direction. Even if the fed is slower francine we have heard from the boj today. We heard yesterday from governor carney. Marvin our favorite one is looking at the dollar and the tracking if the dollar is going to going to depreciate. We do think the negative nominal rates, not only do they pay you extra if you short them, but also that is when you start to have, as greece states out of the picture, you have the depreciation of the swiss franc on a broader basis. Francine yesterday governor but is alsod down ready to act. What is holding them back is the strength of the pound. Marvin the strength of the pound is key. We mentioned how the fed i can tell you as someone who used to brief them on the dollar, they dont care that much. Large because that is a closed economy. The u. K. Is a small open economy. The pound is very important to import prices. Things that the highlighted there. Happening it is having this damping effect on inflation. Are they trying to talk it down . I am not sure. The key point is he was asked this question directly. He gave the answer that the pound is doing the work for them. Francine marvin barth. Thank you. Were going to live pictures. Hanoi. Rry is in tomorrow marks the 20th anniversary for diplomatic relationships between both countries. We will continue to monitor any breaking news on secretary kerry. We will bring you the latest. He is saying that the Human Rights Program needs to happen to deepen ties with the u. S. Were watching toshiba. The company was dumped from the a 1. 2ndex, following billion accounting scandal. Poppel, thank you for joining us. Pavel this is another blow to investors who have watched the. 5 billion dollars watched three point billion dollars evaporate. Thats when the company removed its annual dividend. Nikkei japans best companies. By extension, saying the ones that are excluded. Toshiba, their removal is more than symbolic. Uses thecause gps gauge as a benchmark for allocating its investments. Mean . Ne what does it ive never really heard a company because of it and accounting scandal. They get kicked out. Toshiba shares which will more of anit is impact on the perception of the company. Which until now was considered one of the flagships of japan. Their executives serving as chairman. The chief governing body for the corporations here. Its hard to say how long the road to recovery for to shiva will be. Company rocked by one of the most highprofile scandals. What can you tell us about the history . perhaps the inclusion of olympus conserve as an encouraging target for toshiba to strive for. Scandal was worse than toshibas. Losses, did they hide the fraud spent 13 years. Pleaded to at coverup. Highprofile cases like that happen every couple of years. I set a new record for fines after uncovering accounting irregularities. Company sentthe there founder in jail. Japans third, largest brokerages was found peddling profits. Today in parliament, trade minister raised the question of how will this affect japanese markets overall . Francine think he so much for coming on. Thank you so much for coming on. Here are some more of bloombergs top headlines. Missing on flight inmates 370. Malaysias Prime Minister has said it is part of the plane. French investigators said it is highly likely. Meanwhile, malaysias transport minister says windowpanes and seat cushions have been found. Russia. W contract with billion tot half 1 send up the u. S. Does not have rockets to do the job right now. There have been a releasings rare images showing the dark side of the moon. That should be the far side of the moon. It receives as much sunlight as we do. However, we cannot see it. The pictures were taken by satellite, orbiting one million miles from earth. Football kicks off for new season tomorrow. Time, theyre probably the smallest team to reach such heights. They have done so following an amazing journey. We spoke to the man who wrote a check for 100,000 pounds back in 2008. \ clerks i agree that i would fund the initiation. We do not expect the admin section to be going on for so long. Expect the administration to be going on for so long. We are not going to come were not going to compete with the likes of manchester united. Is be theve to do best we could possibly be. We can seat maxim being anything other than being continually committed. We cant see maxime being anything other than being continually committed. And heave a low profile will say it pays me to be chairman of the Football Club. Because he is not in front of the cameras, does not mean to say he doesnt have a handson interest. The last 18 months i have been working on a collaboration which hopefully will announce that it was no can when students that we went over to philadelphia to be hosted by the union. They have a very young manager. They have a great academy. They have great training facilities. They have a great desire to push up the leak. It was a start to push up the league. It was a start of a right relationship. Francine what even the competitive world of video games have run into the problems of performing enhancing jugs performance enhancing drugs. Francine will come back to the polls. Live from bloomberg tv. Streaming on your tablet, phone and bloomberg. Com. Europes biggest videogame trade show is taking place. Claimed to have to enhance his performance. It is going to start drug test. Heres more. Cheating will be a ongoing problem for every Sports League until the end of time. Had a case where a player claimed his team had taken and a phentermine taken an amphetamine. Say we do notand think we have the tools in place. We went to the national antidotal Antidoping Agency in germany. We will begin drug testing at the end of august at our first event in germany. Our plan is to have a policy that we can take worldwide across our events. Francine the latest there on e sports, electronic gaming. For those listening on bloomberg theo, a second hour of pulses coming up. Job data in the usa. We will get a better idea of the economy. We look ahead at what to expect and what it will mean for janet yellen and the fed. We will look at the contenders hoping to become the next u. S. President. Again, with the debate last night, some of the comments were controversial. In the nextuss that hour. You can follow me on twitter. Our twitter question of the day is on donald trump. Could he become the next u. S. President . Francine jobs they usa has the ultimate labor. Sinceds first tiebreak 2006. Disappointing earnings from viacom. And. Our leaders are stupid our politicians are stupid. Francine the billionaire businessman causes more controversy as he dominates the first republican debate. Francine welcome to the pulse. s europeanloomberg headquarters in london, i am francine lacqua. We are getting inflation from some of the countries in europe. We will get that sm is it breaks in the bloomberg we will get that as soon as it breaks in the bloomberg terminal. It is job stay in the u. S. Payrolls are due at 1 30 u. K. Time this afternoon. They will be looking for numbers. Following 2. 2 from the year earlier. This is a concern. It is greek consumer prices. Commodities and the shutdown of the government for two weeks as we waited for the referendum. It is difficult to put commodity prices. 1. 3 . I following the backet to of u. S. Job status. Two guests on the show in the last hour and a half, and the post of them have called for a euro dollar by the end of the year. Here is Bloombergs Julie Hyman on what to expect from the data. Not be a super serious day, but the uss key Economic Data on friday, the last jobs report before the Federal Reserve meets in september. Jobswill gain 250 5000 last month, the Unemployment Rate Holding Steady at 5. 3 . As long as job growth remains on trend with growth around 200,000, the fed is predicted to raise rates this year, perhaps as early as the temper. They called it a case of show me why i shouldnt instead of why i should. One reason could be the wage growth indicators. The economists forecast earnings will rise 2. 3 month over month and two point 3 year over year. Growth and pay is the one missing factor that push inflation of to the 2 target rate. Last week there was a negative sign for wages, the measure of hourly pay and annual salaries rose in the Second Quarter at the slowest pace on record. Thejobs data released by u. S. Congress department is due out at a 30 a. M. In washington, there to i will be bring in the numbers. Francine heres a look at what else is on the radar. Hiba has been kicked off after a 1. 2 billion accounting scandal. Resigned last month in the wake of the scandal. The bank of japan has held from a standing monetary the thirdbiggest economy will emerge and inflation will pick up. Banks will pick up at ¥80 trillion. Productionstrial decreased in june highlighting the risks for europes largest economy from weaker growth in emerging Market Countries like china. Outputs adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation fell 4. 1 over estimates. Beat estimates. It was helped by a from the division. Nd casualty the outlook says it will be at the upper end of the range. Shares in by a calm have plunge the most in seven years after the owner of mtv and comedy shares fell more than expected. Analysts expected 3. 2 billion. The results marked by comes fourth straight decline in u. S. Advertising sales. Its timeea has moved zone to 30 minutes later than the current standard. It will come into effect on august 15, the 70th anniversary of koreas liberation from japan. It will be a nightmare for satellite receivers. Five months until the iowa caucuses. 17 hopefuls are vying to be the republican choice. Last night, 10 of the highest polling contenders took to the stage. Runnerrent front donald trump got the first and last word. Here he is on mexican immigration. We need to build a wall quickly. I dont mind having a big beautiful door in the wall so people can come into this country legally. We need to build a wall. We need to keep illegals out. Francine former white house hans nichols has a decade of experience on capitol hill. How did it shape up . Ways it is ae reality show. It is a theater show this time of year. Im not sure donald trump won this debate. In some ways he created more enemies in terms of women and , and maybe republican loyalists by leaving open the possibility he could run as a thirdparty candidate. Youll see a lot of the candidates trying to focus their attacks on Hillary Clinton. Marco rubio got the best anticlinton shot in at the national level. This election cannot be a competition. It is important to be qualified, but if it is a resume competition Hillary Clinton will be president. This election should be about the future not the past. The issues the world is facing today, not the issues we once faced. Senator marco rubio and Governor John Kasich of ohio are getting the best reviews. Snug in on the threshold. Only the top 10 candidates get to do this debate. This poll shows donald trump at 21 . Most experts, and they have been wrong, they have bush at 10 , not make anyo did mistakes and did not well last night. Kabee who won the caucuses last time. Look for those numbers to shake up a little bit. Who will take trumps support if it collapses . What will that mean for voters . It is five months away. We still have time to go to New Hampshire or i will. Which would you rather visit . Which is a better predictor of selecting the partys nominee. Francine i would say iowa. A New Hampshire they say that i want to ask corn and we pick president s. That is not true. Has a little more retail policy. You can get to places quicker. Or iowa, the candidates will need to figure out how to channel anger toward immigration. And two true in 2008 thousand 12. Listen to how donald trump talks about immigration. You can get a sense of the anger within the Republican Party. Politicians are stupid. The Mexican Government is much us marker, sharper, and more cunning. They send the bad ones over because they dont want to take care of them. Why should they win the stupid leaders of the United States will do it for them. That is what is happening, whether you like it or not. Hans this is been a challenge for the republicans since george in 2004. The election john mccain and mitt romney did not have the hispanic support. Even if you take flat line numbers in terms of support, they are growing so much as voters they will have to do better. When it comes to the general election they have to soothe for pieces hispanics have growing political clout in all of the key states. Francine that brings us to twitter question he can you see donald trump as the president . It is an interesting debate, especially francine welcome to the pulse. From the Bloomberg European headquarters in london. Our next guest used to be the global macro scientist. Thank you for coming on. We are expecting 225,000. 200,000, does this bolster the case were in interestrate hike in september . I think it does. In light of recent commentary where they talked about some improvement in the jobs report. 200,000 is a line with the average we have seen over the last 612 months. It will probably be sufficient in the minds of most investors and traders. It will be the first time they will list the target rate. Obviously, i if it is an unhappy friday, and barring market accidents be a marketat would accident . The china turmoil . This could potentially spillover into wider inflation. China is key in all of this. It is interesting. We were talking about mark carney, the governor of the bank of england, talking about it being a downside. Anddeleveraging of china the crash in the stock market we have had alongside the crash in the Property Market was one of the biggest bubble crashes we have seen in history. A clip have global ramifications and deflation ramifications. Slowingese economy is down before the stock market crash could translate into a made in china global recession for 2016. The capacity and overinvestment we have seen in china that is exporting Global Deflation is having an effect on other economies like the u. S. And australia. Francine even if we have a 200,000 number and you hike have tolittle, if you reverse it your credibility is down. Why would you take it . I think theres a strong case for the fed moving earlier. The big thing for now is that they are at the mercy of external t external events. The notion that the u. S. Economy will gradually improve, inflation will gradually return to target, and imf projections were overturned to normal. What happens if that is wrong . ,he risks it emergingmarket risks in latin america. These things could translate into a Global Economic slowdown, if not a recession, which is already affecting america. Capital goods and exports are starting to roll over in the absence of chinese demand. It is an unwinding of the chinese boom. They should run sooner. Instead of being at the mercy of external events and having control of the events, they are getting boxed in. , lets say they do raise in september, that is it. They are stuck. Francine what do you make of super thursday . A lot are saying we did not have a change in policy like many expected. Hans super thursday was hyped up. It is certainly dovish. Dovish inflation reports. Are the markets reading too much into the minutes . Governor carney was pretty hawkish. Toi think they should try read mark carney speech at the cathedral. He lays down the three out howns for sussing rates will go. The turn of the year was the right time. A lot depends on what happens to tion, a infla and the economy. The real problem for the bank of england is that they face a situation where they are almost at the mercy of what is happening in the eurozone, china, the global economy, what is happening with the pound, the basis of sterling is up. The tightening of monetary conditions. In principle, yes. You could certainly see a case where a rate hike just to get the ball rolling, more than anything. That the real challenge faces the fed and the bank of england, is they run into a global recession, a roadblock in 2016. That could be a big challenge for policy makers everywhere. Francine thank you for coming in. Were Allied Irish Banks which has tripled its profits for the first half. The chief executive of the countrys largest state lender spoke to us earlier. The performance we have today shows we can support a variation of our capital structure. Some of the Preference Shares will need to be converted into equity, but some can be redeemed us. That is a position to move on quickly. Is thee joining us Dublin Bureau chief. What do the earnings tell us about the Irish Economy . The fundamentals of the economy . Act for a moment. During the crisis, aib was a basket case. They needed 20 billion euros. That was half of irelands tax revenue. Today property prices are rising. Bank back to bad loans. We saw profits tripled. There are problems in the bank. There are legacy bad loans left. Aib . Ine what is next for is 99 owned by the irish government. In six to nine months there is an election. The government would like to have some payback from aib. Signal that that could happen soon. The bigger question is when an ipo of the bank will happen. The minister of finance has indicated it could be in november, but more likely it will be next year. The results today have brought the timetable forward. In the space of the next three to six months i would say. Nrancine if you are a investor, what are risks people should look out for . Ara one thing is that it is state owned bank so theres pressure for the bank to reduce Interest Rates. The political environment is pressing for more rate cuts. Are a lot of outstanding shares in aib. If you look at the capital it is bigger than deutsche bank. Consolidatedare which could see a fall in the share price. Michael noonan a year ago warned investors not to buy shares in the bank because of the consolidation prices. It is probably the first time in history and owner has said do not buy shares in this bank, at least not now. Francine the Bloomberg Bureau chief in dublin. The bank of england may be Interest Rate an rise, but super thursday failed to provide a clear indication of when that could happen. Governor mark carney said events are creating a drag on prices. Here are the key moments. At his meeting yesterday the mpc voted by a majority of 81 to maintain take rates. They voted unanimously to maintain the stock of asset prices. They reaffirm the expectation that when the bank rate rises occurred, they can be expected to be limited and gradual. Nearterm outlook for inflation is needed. The falls and Energy Prices over the last few months will continue to bear down on inflation until the end of next year. Nonetheless, a range of measures that mediumterm Inflation Expectations remain well anchored. Sterling has appreciated three point 5 since may and 20 since the trough in march of 2013. The drag on import prices from the appreciation will push down on inflation for some time, posing a Downside Risk to its nearterm path, in particular. As the u. K. Expansion progresses, speculation about the precise timing on the first off ink increase banknotes is increasing. It is a welcome sign of an economy returning to normal. The likely timing of the first Bank Rate Increase is drawing closer. Exact timing of the first move cannot be predicted in advance. Francine economists have had time to digest the data. Lets speak to our chief european economists. What are the only ones to predict to be 81 vote. Governor carney was off about the paladin said the strength of the pound that a lot of the work for him. Effect ons a direct prices. It buys down the short term information. There is the effect on demand. Exports. It harder on that affects the domestic demand. The Exchange Rate overall should not have an enormous affect on the first hiking. After year and a half it will drop down. Seeill be interesting to the end of the banks forecast rising. Francine on super thursday we had the forecast, a news conference, the mpc votes. Where do you see the next Interest Rate raise . Jamie let me think about that. , mainly,about wages and its relation to productivity. Wages beat productivity gains. To push the wages we have to push up prices. We see that happening over the second half of the year. We think wages will prompt the first rate increase. Dataine this is dependent. We are looking for wage growth and a correlation between productivity. Are we looking for strength in pound . Jamie that will be a factor. They played down the risk of the pounds inflation outlook by saying it will be temporary. We are focused on domestic pressures and wages. Francine success or not for super thursday . Jamie you dont see the success because it is intended to reduce volatility in two weeks time, not the day of the event. We always get volatility around actual releases. I think it has been a rough success, only time will tell. Francine thank you. Coming up, he he got more airtime than any other candidate in last nights president ial debate in trash the current administration. We will be talking trump and the rest of the republican field when we come back. Francine welcome back to the pulse. Live from bloombergs European Headquarters in london i am francine lacqua. The bank of japan has held off from expanding monetary stimulus. The worlds biggest economy will emerge from a recent soft patch and inflation will pick up. Increasing its case it ¥82 is expected by all 30 seven economists surveyed by bloomberg. 17 president ial hopefuls face their first test. Theld trump has upended race with controversial comments about war heroes and mexicans. He was central stage. The u. S. Jobs report is out later today. 1 30 u. K. Time. Employers are projected to have jobs in july. 00 it comes as policymakers are expressing the importance of the job market in raising rates. Jon the market is treading water and ahead of the big job stay number. And you look at the dax it is flat down 1 10 of 1 . Flat on the main indices. The two bestperforming Industry Groups today are some of them were so far this year. Energy and mining. To the u. S. Back story. A media routes and the nasdaq down the most in two months. That is being felt on the ftse 100 of all places. These are the big moves on the ftse 100. 4 . Down almost that is not even a session low. It is very different here in europe compared to the u. S. It is a different media environment. You see the media routes in the u. S. And people get nervous in the u. K. About the same thing. Yesterday the story was the sterling strength. 1. 55. The bank of england minutes or more dovish than anyone expected. A vote of 81, some people were even expected 63. A looks like we will be treading water waiting for the other side of the atlantic to move first. The dollar strength, king dollar. Dead flat. The estimate is 225,000. Will it be good enough to make the move in september, or bad enough to stop them . Francine thank you. In 25 minutes it is surveillance with tom keene. It is jobs, jobs, jobs and donald trump they. Trump day. Nuancede a very debate. Watched everyy second of the debate and came away thinking there was real substance to it. Brandon thought scored real points. Well be talking to maury harris. And a recruiter from princeton university. Francine, what i think is so the jobs theyhat reporting folded into what we witnessed from your coverage of the bank of england yesterday. I thought it was fascinating how the ble took a dovish stance, and you wonder how yellen will react when she received a challenged job report. That will be most interesting at 8 30 u. S. Time saying the bigs differs between the u. K. And the u. S. Is because you guys are so that what the dollar does does not make that big of a difference. Here we are very affected. Om sterling dynamics for the United Kingdom are very different than dollar dynamics for the United States. Francine our twitter question is about donald trump and if he has a chance of becoming president. Tom i would say listen to the polls. No is the answer. Mr. Trump is doing very well now, but there is the second choice idea, and he does not do idea. N the second choice the process is to get through iowa and New Hampshire. Then all of a sudden there are bigger election primaries. That is where the rubber will meet the road from mr. Trump. Im guessing that will be in february of next year. Francine were still a long way off. 10 of the 17 republican candidates for u. S. President battled it out on stage in cleveland, marking an official start to the republican race for the white house in 2016. We are joined by the assistant director of the u. S. Project at Chatham House and the rector at the London School of economics. , donald trump. I know that he is doing the headlines. He spoke more than everyone. He started and finished at that debate. Everyone said he is popular, but that is only because he has a famous name. Does he have a shot at this . Peter anything is possible. I would say that there was no knockout blows last night. I thought to people in particular help themselves, and trump was one. As a front runner you want to make sure you dont lose out, and i think he held his own. The first thing to keep in mind is that donald trump is tapping a deep sense of resentment in the electorate. That explains why he is the front runner. It is worth keeping in mind that he is very high unfavorables. His favorable and unfavorable scores, doing the calculation, he looks a lot more take everybody else on that debate floor. Francine jacob . Agree with peter. Trump has demonstrated he is a of selfpromotion. This stage is largely about selfpromotion. No one is deciding who they will vote for yet. The first votes will not be cast until january. Francine in europe, we sometimes forget this is just one of many debates. Years away. T 1. 5 how much does it matter how much hyped they get at the moment . It matters at the level of fundraising, which is not an issue for donald trump, but it is for the other candidates. If they have the look of a winner they are more likely to attract cash. Francine i know we dont only want to talk about donald trump, but it is kind of dominant. Really fascinated that he said he would not necessarily endorse the person that would be nominated. He could run as an independent. The moderator made that point explicitly to him and he shrugged it off. Skills areps turning what should be body blows around and not being affected. If he runs as an independent, that is a mortal threat to the Republican Party in 2016. Peter if anyone else would have made that same comment it would have been the kiss of death. It is a problem for republicans. If we get him running it will be 1992 votef the because ross perot divided the republican vote. Did anyone else catch her eye . Jacob i thought marco rubio turned out good. People in three camps. Donald trump on his own. Scott walker and jeb bush, who had really support and money to go for the long haul. Marco rubio is on the edge of that. The people who need this time to introduce themselves to the coalesce ataken to coalition for themselves to be able to go the distance. Marco rubio did a good job of expressing his individuality and pitch in a way that other candidates did not, necessarily. Marco rubionk tidwell, but the candidate that stood out for me, the other big winner last night, was john kasich. John kasich barely made the cut. He was the last one in on the debate. He is the one that looks the politically. Bush moderate and very compassionate. The response on if your daughter is gay was fantastic and will be played over and over in the u. S. I thought he helped himself a lot. He comes across as confident, middleoftheroad. Moderate republicans and independents he is attractive. The problem he will have Going Forward is appealing to hardcore conservatives inside the party. I think he posed a problem. Both of them in their own ways, and john kasich, created a problem for bush. Trump because he took up so much en run thissh needs to out. He is not doing as well as he would like to or should be as the punitive frontrunner, but he did not rule himself out. As rick perry could tell you, it is easier to rule yourself out then roll yourself in. No gaff, butwas to me he looks smaller on the stage. It was partly because of trump, and partly because of john kasich and marco rubio. There was one other winter, but it was in the happy hour debate, the one that occurred earlier, and that was Carly Fiorina. Francine she did not make the cut, but she is one to watch . Peter she is one to watch and i would be surprised if she is not in the main event next time. She had a command of the issues. She went after trump in a way that i think will ring true over the long run. He has flipflopped on issues. For some she will come across as too bareknuckled and hardedged. Esque, buto hillary i think she made inroads last night. Francine thank you. We have plenty more to talk about, so we will have you on. Influences on the oil industry and how comments from the senator could affect the nuclear deal. That is coming up next. Francine welcome back to the pulse. Live from london on bloomberg tv. The iran deal is really blocked. Opposition was announced to the deal saying that a senator will not vote for the deal because it iran will not change. Lets get more on the oil market from will kennedy. Is a long quote. He essentially said iran will not change. They are back to their old tricks. How much of a hindrance that this be . Obama tois a blow to have such a prominent figure in his own party oppose the deal. He is the second most democrat in the senate. It is unlikely it will block the deal. Will the democrats override . Bamas veto i think it is unlikely. Oil has come down a long way. . 25 since june. One of the things people are concentrating on is iran and any news that makes iran look less likely, people will use as an excuse to buy. Francine are there bullish reasons or thinking . That could cause the oil prices to go back up . Will we have the refinery making season coming and that cuts the cost of oil. The market is oversupplied by 2 Million Barrels a day. What we arey, seeing in the market is that contracts for the years ahead are getting cheaper, suggesting that traders think that this love boko on longer than expected. Francine i was going to ask you about the longerterm forecast. Will we have seen an adjustment. People who are optimistic about a rebound, they have adjusted their rhetoric to say, maybe we are in it for the long haul. Francine thank you. We will kennedy to bloomberg editor for energy. Here are more top headlines. Relatives of people missing on anger mh 370 have poised at what they say are mixed messages about the wing part found on reunion island. French investigators are saying that is highly likely while malaysia is saying it is part of the plane. More debris has been found on route. Renewing a contract with russia for rides to the International Space station from nasa. They will send up six astronauts at 82 million each. Nasa also released images showing the dark side of the moon. Should be the far side of the moon. It does not receive us much sunlight as we do. Teachers were taken by a satellite orbiting one million miles earth. Pictures were taken by satellite orbiting one million miles from earth. Will the job reports feel the case for a rate rise . That is coming up next. Francine welcome back to the pulse. Live on bloomberg tv and streaming on the ipad and bloomberg. Com. The ball kicks off for a new season tomorrow. Joining britains top fight will. E afc bournemouth they are the first to reach the hype and have done so following an amazing journey from the fourth tier of english football and rescued from financial ruin. We talk to the man who wrote the check to save the club in 2008. Having agreed i would fund the administration we did not expect the administration to be going on for so long. Where not going to compete with chelsea or manchester united. What we have to do is be the best we can possibly be. We cannot be anything other than continually committed to the Football Club. Never say never. Roman is not media shy. This is a conscious decision of him to have a low profile. He says he pays me to be chairman of the Football Club and i can take the media pressure. Because he is not in front of the cameras day and in and day out, does not have a handson interest. We have been working on a collaboration which we will announce in the not so distant future. It is no coincidence we went to philadelphia to be hosted by the union. Theres a great synergy from the two clubs. They have a young manager, great training facilities, and a great desire to push up the league. It was a starter for it i hope will be a strong relationship. We aree now what watching for the rest of the day. In a couple of hours we will get the feds job report after the u. S. Not been this excited about a job report since the one before the 2012 president ial election. The expectation is for 225,000. Anything south of 200,000 could cause a shock to the system. It could delay the raising of rates into 2016. The hourly wages are expected to go up 0. 2 . Year ago they were up 3. 2 is there upward pressure on wages. Anything else will be fun. We will wait for the market to react. Francine i want to talk about donald trump more. You cannot not want to talk about him. Hans you have basically turned into a republican primary voter. You cannot get enough of donald trump. I know that is unfair for you. Youll see a lot of latenight parity of him and a lot of media attention, but he represents something real. A republican electorate that is eager for change and angry. Can tap candidate that into that without offending the rest of the country will be on december inc. Is easier said than done the rest of the country will be onto something. It is easier said than done. How much do we look at the debate and think that this is a trend. It is easy to make fun of donald force. But he is a real this is just the first debate and we may see someone like Carly Fiorina emerge. Hans everyone is saying that she won the undercar debate. Thee are only dangerous to candidate that won if they take positions they cannot sell to the electorate. Francine thank you so much. That is it for the pulse. Bloomberg tv for team. Urveillance the jobs report comes out at 1 30 u. K. Time. It is the most important piece of economic aid and on earth, that is how i would describe it. You can follow us on twitter. I am flacqua. Have a great day. Announcer this is bloomberg surveillance. It is jobs day in america. Can the american job making machine help janet yellen escape the great distortion . This morning on bloomberg remove half a we brain. Wait a minute, there is no debate. The domain was that the debate was smart. The governor of ohio scored points. In the elephant in the rooms Global Deflation. Good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance this is good morning, everyone. This is bloomberg surveillance. I did not watch the debate. Vonnie quinn did not watch the debate. Brendan greeley watched every second away from it. Brendan im going to vote for john kasich. They went for everybodys jugular, but i am completely in the tank for john kasich. He seems to have paid attention to what Ronald Reagan actually said and did, which is he showed optimism and he was capable of compromise. It was amazing to listen to that. Tom we thank you for staying up and watching every minute of it. She did not