Caroline first, lets dive bring to the markets. Silver,im looking at catching up with gold. That one holding near year high, rally over 8 in the last seven days. Silverbacked Exchange Traded fund are the highest on record. 10 straight weeks, the longest streak since may 2017. We know that hedge and Money Managers boosted their net tlection bet their ne bullish bets. This is likely because gold has been getting a bid as well. Down, down 17 in the month of july. Librare by facebooks hearing, plus there has been an uptick this year. A chart, the weekly chart of bitcoin going back to 2015. Uptrends from about 200 all the way to 20,000. Parabolic. A 90 degree angle can hold. Cannot hold. This years smaller parabolic uptrend, up 250 , now reversing. This chart makes a strong case 7000 itoin to go below will be interesting to see what happens with the cryptocurrencies. Caroline changing it td ameritrade. The ceo will be leaving the company in 2020. Td ameritrade coming out with its numbers. Earnings per share beating the highest estimate. They say the board will begin the search for a ceo successor. Scarlet they said tim will stake in the role until they identify the right candidate lets continue our conversation with alec young as well as bloombergs sarah ponczek. What did the yields in europe mean for the United States . We asked the question of whether they would spill over. What does it mean in terms of investors willingness to take risk . Alec it has a lot of implications. Most of those stem from the dollar. Rates in growth in the u. S. Remain so much higher than europe and japan. That is profit up the dot propping up the dollar and that hurts u. S. Returns in anything international. The dollar denominated returns are weaker when the dollar is strong against those currencies. U. S. Investors wondering what are the benefits of diversification. The other thing that i think it promotes is it tends to make u. S. Rates lower than they otherwise would be. People look at the consumer, the strength of our economy, why are rates so low . A lot of it is that global impulse, the risks to growth are coming from outside the u. S. I think the 10 year treasury yield, the whole u. S. Curve is lower than it otherwise would be if not for these global impulses. Scarlet a lot of investors say, just because yields are low, doesnt mean it is not time to go into risk. You are seeing people, we are throwing in the towel, lets just diving to the riskiest stuff out there. Caveat thatwith the saying this time is different is not always a good thing. You look at hyd, the most popular junkbond etf, last month was a record for the fund. Will we continue to see inflows . We saw 200 million enter the fund alone on friday. We have seen it in its european counterpart, too. We still continue to see appetite for this risk. Forline not an appetite small caps. The russell 2000 was again the outlier. Focus onot of people the u. S. Versus International Revenue conversation but i think that was more relevant last year. This year, it has been about the second dna. The sector dna. They had a lot more exposure to financial and a lot less to tech. Tech is a quarter of the index. For the russell 2, you can flip those around. When you have financial stock underperformance, it is going to be difficult to see small cap leadership. If you see financials lagging, odds are, if you look at the size, you will see the russell 2 underperforming. What do you expect people to do . People say, the cycle will last forever. Theres a push pull of global geopolitical unrest. Alec i think the big catalyst is really recession in terms of blowing up the spreads and giving problems for credit. We can argue about whether the Earnings Growth level justifies valuations, but at this point, there is no credible recession case for the u. S. That is the forecast horizon until you see that, there is no catalyst for a major drawdown. I think investors should sit tight. That said, given valuations, they should expect more upside. Leading equities, Something Like high yield, that moves off of recession risk. As long as you are in an expansion, the Credit Investor doesnt mind. A lot of people who dont want to deal with those equity risks are flooding into highyield funds where you can still get a 5. 5 , 7 yield. Thank you both so much. Ameritrade,p, td the company says the ceo will be leaving the company in 2020. He will stay on as Company Conducts a search. 1. 04, beating ofectations of many 7 . 97. That does it for the closing bell. Whatd you miss . Is up next where we will be looking at Political Risk with our guest host ian bremmer of eurasia group. This is bloomberg. Caroline we are live from bloombergs World Headquarters in new york. Scarlet im scarlet fu. Lisa im lisa. Caroline it is a female Team Snapshots of stocks, acrosstheboard up except for the russell. Global gamble. From gulf tensions to trade optimism and exit turmoil. Ian bremmer from the eurasia group. The private detectives investigating a billiondollar deal socked by Goldman Sachs. Chinas nasdaq Like Exchange had major gains on his first day. We have some results from whirlpool, the appliance maker. Fullyear forecast, on year and ops higher than previously indicated. This was a company we were paying attention to because of. Mpact from trade tariffs second quarter, eps of 401. That sales also better than expected. Net sales also that are than expected. The stock up 5. 5 . In aine oil rose the most week at one point in training. Tensions between iran and the west. Demanded the Immediate Release of the oil taker seized by the Iranian Revolutionary guard on friday. They also said they want to deescalate the situation. Here to take us through that deescalation is ian bremmer. Do you make of what is happening in the middle east between the u. S. And the middle east and other allies . Yuan we are large ian we are iran, the our self in only one to leave the nuclear deal. Trump is not alone with the allies to wanting to avoid confrontation. Every time iran escalates, he says, not my problem. Fake news, not it. Can takeaker, they care of their own tankers. Everyone is being tough. Iranian economy getting hurt. But they are seeing that as they escalate, they might not get punished that much for it. The impact on the oil market not all that high. We are not looking at anyone thinking the strait of hormuz is about to be closed. Maybe youy was saying need 150. Im struggling to understand the motivations on both sides. I dont understand what the u. S. Is going for and what iran is playing at, trying to provoke the u. K. With the seizure of the tanker. Ian im surprised that you are surprised about iranian motivation. The iranians have sat on their hands for almost a year and a half. Last march, the iranians the United States pullout of the deal. That was until the United States said we will sanction your oil. Then the iranians started saying it. Different people in the Trump Administration have different intended outcomes. In the case of john bolton, who we have not heard much from, he is the one who wants to squeeze the iranians so hard to move toward regime change or at least precipitate a military exchange decimate theirly warmaking capabilities. Pompeo wants to bring others ato the american camp, multilateral approach to a new iranian deal. Trump is focused on, i want to thathe iranians so hard they are pushed back into negotiations with me so that i will peel the president to directly so that i will be the only president to directly negotiate with the iranians. You make it sound so simple. Ian it is understandable. From the iran perspective, how does the u. S. Get iran to the negotiating table . Ian you could do worse than the president s strategy. Destroying the iranian economy and not taking the bait on military escalation is moving them more toward, ok, we want to negotiate with you. For the iranians to do that credibly, they have to improve their own national bona fides. Announcing they have gone after these iranian citizens for cia ties. Why announce it now . They need that nationalist defense. Another problem, iran is not north korea. North korea is run by one guy. In iran, you can get the president and foreign minister, who are being hurt because it was their nuclear deal, the Supreme Leader calls the shots. Hes the ones with hes the one with military authority, one sending these boats out. If he says we are not talking, we are not talking. How close are we to a war . Ian we are very far from a war but we are getting closer to a escalation that could cause a quick spike in oil prices. Coming up, just as the white house takes steps toward easing as huawei ban, setting up network for kim jongun. This is bloomberg. Talking about talks. Negotiations between chinese and u. S. Negotiators could be starting soon after goodwill gestures by beijing over the weekend. That is according to Chinese State media. Whether the chinese will buy american Agricultural Products remains to be seen. We are back with ian number. The backdrop to all of this is that the chinese economy is slowing. We have seen President Trump excited about this and say that it will push him in debt push them into a corner. Does it give him leverage . Ian yes. And the u. S. Economy is doing well so he is in no urgency to give stuff away. If you were advising trump politically, dont take the tariffs off until you hit the election. Xi jinping understands that if he wants any movement over the next 12 months, he has to give a little. It was reported that they were 80 to a deal and the chinese back off the table. True. Now they are feeling it so they are moving a little more. Problem, 5g, they have whether they by our soybeans. Caroline there was some pressure taken off the chinese economy. Is therel much much pressure on china to resolve it . Chinese a lotthe more. They are a smaller economy. They dont have the same number of allies that the americans do. You can argue that there is more urgency for the chinese but also the chinese are playing the long game. Xi jinping is president for life, trump is not. I dont think it is easy to get these two leaders together in a way that is sustainable. You can get a shortterm deal, a small deal, but you did fix the Ballistic Missiles you did not fix the Ballistic Missiles. If we get a deal, there will be things you are not going to fix. Hong kong, taiwan, 5g, you name it. There is the concern that xi jinping has brought huawei front and center. Meanwhile, we got that report out of the washington coast the Washington Post saying that huawei helped north korea build out their 3g network. Ian thats not 5g. Before. Two generations that means kim jongun is playing missile command. Caroline 3g is Still Available in a lot of u. S. And u. K. Nevertheless, the idea of providing technology to a nation that is an enemy state of the United States. Ian lets stipulate that is bad. Lisa how do we go forward with that if that is still at the center of any trade negotiation . Ian i think trump could personally say, ok, we will treat lightly the daughter of the cfo. Areas that are not critical to national security. That is not going to make huawei a viable longterm business. You cant fix this huawei situation. The bigger issue is that we are fragmenting the internet, fragmenting big data, the internet of things is working on. If that happens, it is the chinese need to build their own Going Forward away from american supply chains. Bloomberg is all about global markets. We talk about integration, globalization this is moving in the exact opposite direction. It means people will be looking at the data wont be looking at the data that we have. Scarlet hong kong, it feels there will getts worse before they get better. There has been no resolution and each week it seems that the demands of protesters are shifting away from the tradition bill into something more the extradition bill into something more amorphous. Ian it is not that bad in that most chinese on the mainland have no idea what is going on or they by a narrative, that hong rich. S the not something fact that xi jinping came out that means theid potential for a violent crime, and there already a number of protesters who committed suicide. It is a matter of life and death for people out there. We have seen triad that has been engaged that is largely seen as progovernment. It is starting to see to be seen as much uglier. Something china is prepared. Hong kong used to have more leverage. Handover, about 15 , today about 2 . Deal that they walked away from. That deal is no longer on offer. Jerusalem, american have the embassy there. The same thing is happening with hong kong. Hong kong chinese dont matter as much. The fact that they will be able to demand, no. Caroline our clients asking you at the moment whether they should be exiting their headquarters from hong kong . Ian they are thinking about it in part because you have this , it is bringing them into the chinese economy but also taking away political economy. Bremmer, director of the eurasia group, you are sticking with us. With Boris Johnson looking like the next Prime Minister, many u. K. Officials threatening to refine to resign. This is bloomberg. I dont know why i didnt get screened a long time ago. I kept putting it off. What was i thinking . Ok, mr. Jones. Were all done. I told you it was easy. With life line screening, getting screened for unknown Health Conditions is so quick, painless and affordable, youll wonder why you hadnt done it before. So if youre over age 50, call now and schedule an appointment near you. For just 149 a savings of over 50 youll receive a package of five screenings that go beyond your doctors annual checkup. Ultrasound technology looks inside your arteries for plaque that builds up as you age and increases your risk of stroke and heart disease. After all, 4 out of 5 people who have a stroke, their first symptom is a stroke. So call today and start with a Free Health Assessment to understand your best plan of action. So why didnt we do this earlier . Life line screening. The power of prevention. Call now to learn more. With im Mark Crumpton bloombergs first word news. President trump says he could win the war in afghanistan in a week but says he doesnt want to kill many people and wipe afghanistan off the face of the earth. He met with the president of afghanistan. Secretarygeneral antonio announced his concern over the seizure of vessels in the strait of hormuz. The secretarygeneral stresses the need to respect the rights of navigation through the straight. The secretarygeneral urges all concerned to exercise maximum constrained. A boat was seized and taken to an iranian port. Waving flags, chanting, and banging pots and pans, tens of thousands of Puerto Ricans filled a highway today to demand the resignation of the governor. Leakcame 10 days after the of nearly 900 pages of online chats between governor rossello and some of his closest. In the conversation, they mocked women and victims of hurricane maria. The governor is refusing demands a step down demands he step down. Tlaibongresswoman rashida told people that they are all members of the squad, which is how she and three other members of congress describe themselves. Tlaib and her colleagues were the target of racist tweets from donald trump, saying they should go back to their home countries. There are all these young [inaudible] mark House Speaker nancy pelosi convention. Ed the global news 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Im Mark Crumpton. This is bloomberg. Caroline u. K. Chancellor of the exchequer Philip Hammond says he intends to resign from his post on wednesday if Boris Johnson becomes the next Prime Minister. He has already resigned. Joining us on the phone from london bloombergs executive editor for international dealnment is it a done that Boris Johnson will become Prime Minister tomorrow . It would have to be a jawdropping result tomorrow for Boris Johnson not to be named. His challenger jeremy hunt has picked up some ground but many tory members probably voted well before that. In rural areas, Boris Johnson is very popular with rankandfile tory members. They see him as someone who can relay party back to life. Outcome be a shocking at this point. Is very popular with tory voters but perhaps not so much his members of Parliament Given the resignations we have seen that caroline detailed. What kind of government does he end up inheriting or what does he end up tilting out of the government that is left . Difficultit will be a one. We have people either resigning or saying they will resign. Amongst them, the kiwanis chancellor of the exchequer the key one is chancellor of the exchequer. Jeremy hunt would go as well. Boris johnson might want a clean slate for brexit. Is he will be leading a minority government even with the help of his allies parliament, he will have only a majority of one. Today, one of the tory mps was charged with Sexual Assault and suspended from the party. Hes not only leading a fractured party but also parliament where he has to attempt to get brexit done. Caroline with more insight on brexit and the race for 10 downing street, we are back with ian bremmer, founder and president of the eurasia group. Is no deal brexit the most likely or least likely outcome . Ian i guess the most likely now of all of the potentia holidays is another election. Parliament works to stop him from going to no deal brexit because of the economic hit the u. K. Would take. There are plenty of ways you get to another election. Dealy, unless they get a by the end of october, it seems to be very slim. Lets say we get another election. How much support is there for a Boris Johnson and no deal brexit . All of the sort of gloom and doom warnings that people have been putting out there saying brexit will sink the economy, but the u. K. Is still doing ok. How much credence is there . Put three years into brexit now and u. K. Is certain underperforming economically compared to the continent, jobs have been lost, but the resistance of, we voted for it, we want it, that is base and they do turn out. The big question will be whether or not Boris Johnson is able to cobble together a coalition with nigel faraj the brexit party, which he is certainly capable of doing. They are not strongly ideological. Both are tactical. He will lose a lot of tories if that occurs. We also have Jeremy Corbyn in the wings from the labour party thats the equivalent of what happens if Bernie Sanders is the nomination here in the United States, dream scenario for trump, but it is not a guarantee. The one thing that would assuredly be worse than a no deal brexit would be Jeremy Corbyn premiership. Does this become a straw that breaks the camels back. If you look at the last european elections, the populists did better but they dont agree with each other on anything. There is never been an expression nationalists of the world unite. Positions that are being appointed right now, the ecb presidency, Christian Lagarde christine lagarde. These are not revolutionaries. These are some of the strongest proeu figures could put in place. At a time when Interest Rates are lower and you need politician to force companies together. Those of the people you want. Theres no question that the european leaders individually, merkel is towards the end of her term, the italians are in a very different direction. Micron is doing a little better and the greeks actually got rid but youa government wouldnt say that you are stronger in a country level. And you wouldnt say is falling apart. You would say is the eu is still a very functional common market. The Regulatory Authority is very strong. When you would also say that the eu on the global stage is weaker than it was. Caroline your clients, are they looking at necking away from this has an area of growth . Are they committed as they have been . Ian you look at the tech companies. France now saying they want to put a tax against these companies that make a decent amount of money. I dont see a single American Tech Company saying i can do europe. I see a lot of them saying they dont think theres a place for them in china because they feel that they are just not going to be allowed in. It is important to recognize that even though you growth is a little anemic right now and brexit is a problem, they are still all about rule of law and the private sector. Ian bremmer, thank you for being with us. Up, 1. 2 billion Goldman Sachs bond deal goes bust. No, they are hiring private investigators to dig out all the details. This is bloomberg. Time for a look at what stories are trending. Terminal users reading about the pentagon, which has revealed details about a secret army mission that has blackhawk helicopters flying over the d. C. Area. The mission was disclosed when Congress Passed approval to shift funds for Aircraft Maintenance and travel. Bloomberg. Com has a story on the 2020 democratic candidates, who are learning online advertising. For hopefuls with hopefuls competing for the same online advertisements, prices can skyrocket. Some campaigns are in danger of being bled dry by spending more than a dollar to get a one dollar contribution. Tictoc is reporting that the cannabis industry is less diverse than finance. Only two female ceos among the tradedmost publicly companies. Less female representation than the top 20 banks. You can follow all the stories on your terminal, on bloomberg. Com, and at tictoc on twitter. Bustedttle brewing ovary Goldman Sachs bond deal. Proceeds were channeled to a cluster of airlines connected to and head airways. Now, a group of creditors have reverted to hiring private detectives. Ourmore, we welcome Bloomberg Finance reporter. Give us a sense of what the issue at stake is here. The main issue is that people but something that is now trading at . 40 on the dollar. They need to figure out how they can maximize a recovery, maximize something that has cratered in value. ,hat they have resorted to conventional, perhaps aggressive, hiring a private Intelligence Firm not only to look at the borrowers but also have them raise that money. That is why the story seems so interesting to us. Was ane this awardwinning deal because it was so creative. Lets look at what the deal was. Eddie had airways, a wellknown airways, a wellknown regional player wanting to be global. It bought up stake in several other airlines. But those airlines by themselves were not in great financial health, so they created a special vehicle so they could raise the money and funnel proceeds to all these airlines. It was a highyield bond deal. It seemed to work. Everyone seemed to be eager for the deal. It was winning awards all over the place. Two years later, all of these sort of affiliated airlines went veryand you had a few angry investors. It turns out that the abu dhabi government isnt going to be the backer. Do we know what happened, why hsbc dropped out . Our understanding is that hsbc was earmarked to leave the deal. There were a couple of obscure brokerages involved. At the same time, the etihad investing etihad investors were wondering whether they would complete the deal. Goldman stepped up. Lf on the ideatse that it can go in and do difficult deals. Precedent fory the underwriter being held accountable for Something Like this where there is no allegation, at least yet, that they did anything untoward . Idea, when you hire private investigators, it doesnt happen much in the u. S. Bond market, but it does happen in other markets where you go after companies to try to see if there are assets hidden from the public. It is very rare that you have investigators looking into deals that involves one of the largest investment banks in the world. Goldman and a couple of really tiny brokerages with not the cleanest of records, that is why everyone is trying to figure out if they can find something there that wasnt completely on the up and up. Caroline lets get you a quick check on the latest is this flash headlines. Largest user of the boeing 737 max says they are taking a hard look at the Fourth Quarter with the max grounded. Southwest may slow down the planned retirement of some of its current jets. Bayer has agreed to sell dr. Scholls. Million. , 585 the Company Faces potentially billions of liability costs. Claims that its topselling retailer, round, causes cancer roundup, causes cancer. Shares of netflix fell 30 over two days. The suit, filed in the u. S. District court in california also names netflix ceo and cfo. Speaking of movies and entertainment, what could possibly boost a disney remake ticket sales . Try beyonce and donald glover. At stars help the lion king the box office. Get how thist movie works until they described it as a National Geographic documentary with beyonce and donald glover. This, i was bewildered as to what they were doing. I love National Geographic. Scarlet did you go see this . Caroline i dont know if i will be able to cope with it emotionally. Scene was hardh enough as a cartoon. Family members have been and they said it is fantastic. We almost went because our air conditioner broke. Tickets available, we are there. Coming up, chinas new star. The latest stock venture, the star board. We will discuss. Theeijing an answer to nasdaq. First day of trading on the star market, gains in all 25 companies listed. What were some of the big Success Stories today . Shery we are talking about 25 Companies Making their debut on the star board, and we are talking about raising a combined 5. 4 billion on the first trading day, stocks jumping an average of 40 . There were more than 7 billion of shares that changed hands. A lot of analysts hauling this launch a complete success. It is still early days. No price limit during the first five days. That will come into place after the first five days and then we will have a 20 cap in either direction. We also will not have index track yet. That will come on the 11th day. Caroline does that pain does that gain meet anyone elses pain . Shery yes, the money has to come from somewhere. It is draining liquidity out of the other markets at least for the first day. Punished ys plunged 12 . Not to mention the shanghai composite, also the index being down. Analysts also a little bit concerned about the valuations. Of course, Retail Investors confused about this market outstripping supply by 1800 times. A bit concerning an risky at the same time. What will really attract investors is if this change will attract the next big player. Whenumiliating was it china lost out to the New York Stock Exchange listing alibaba . They are trying to have alibaba in hong kong now. Right now, a lot of support from top officials in the chinese government. Ony have relaxed rules valuations, price limits for the first day of trading. Not to mention that they are very open to Small Companies and it is the only one where they are not yet making a profit. What are the pretense of the potential challenges . Shery becoming the next ch inex. From still about 60 down its peak. Caroline so we dont want to be hearing that cautionary tale again. Dont miss daybreak australia and daybreak asia at 6 00 p. M. Eastern. The new u. K. Prime minister announced tomorrow with Boris Johnson and jeremy hunt vying for the top job. Ubs announcing secondquarter earnings. Interesting to see if they will announce any cutbacks. In the u. S. , texas instruments, visa, snap, chipotle all announcing gains. Uber technology is up next Bloomberg Technology is up next. This is bloomberg. Emily im emily chang in San Francisco and this is Bloomberg Technology. Tech giants visit the white house. The Trump Administration hosts some of the Top Companies to talk about the ban on huawei. Libra pitch tok