Next week. And the central bank competes in foreign currency markets for the first time in three months. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on tictoc and on twitter. Bloomberg. Live from bloomberg world headquarters, i am shery ahn. Amanda i am amanda lange. We are joined by our bloomberg audiences. The trade ministers from the United States and mexico are meeting in washington today to discuss the deal. Plus bracing for black friday. We will talk to the ceo about what to expect after the thanksgiving holiday. Deisappointing outlook from er. Disappointing quarter. Difficult conditions keep them from replacing much equipment. A quick check of the major averages. We do have gains again today. A combination of interesting and optimistic views on trade. We are still hearing from big american companies. That is factoring in on some of these different indices. We are seeing other big gains and new records as well. Communications is also strong. Industrial and energy and dear is particularly weak. We get some Economic Data out there. We have small caps relative to the s p 500. Relative to the s p 500, it remains incredibly weak. Jobless claims as well as business equipment demands. We had gdp advised revised upward. That has helped with market optimism. Surprise indexe in positive territory. Wide whitee line. There is a bit of a worry that will join europe in the red. We saw a real personal spending growing only 0. 1 from the previous month. This Holiday Shopping season there is a lot of caution among households. Giving t surprising given the trade uncertainty. Tonight on the agenda that north american trade deal. White House Speaker nancy pelosi has said that an agreement is within range. Our colleague who covers bloomberg is with us. There is a sense that this is happening. Canadian officials are there. This may be about making concessions on the canadian side to get the deal ratified. Is that whats happening . Jenny it seems like this is the week when all of the puzzle pieces are falling in line. They made some progress but it never looked like we were. Etting close to anything the fact that both ministers were in town with ambassador aghthizer, after he had positive meeting with nancy pelosi seems to indicate we are getting somewhere that leads to a resolution that will finally get this deal up for a vote. Shery nancy pelosi saying it will be better for the workers. What is in contention . There have been a number of issues the sides have been tripping at. Enforcement is the overarching issue. Aboutwas also discussions the biologic pharmaceutical positions. It seems that they have made project progress and now it came down to the labor enforcement which includes mexico. Anything that ambassador lighthizer promised to nancy pelosi verbally, he needs sign off from mexico in writing so he can go back and say we have an agreement. This is really whats at the canada seems to be. Ore supervising and listening they are an important partner. Thank you, that was from d. C. The latest on the negotiations. Moreems like a relatively quiet week. We are expecting the turkey and then the deals as well. Black friday is almost here which means all eyes will be on consumers and retailers as the make or break shopping Holiday Season gets underway. Great to have you with us. The stock about the shopping season because it is going to be shorter than usual. 26 days between thanksgiving and christmas. What are we expecting this time around . I think we will see a lot of things we have expected in the past. Right after halloween we started to see retail sales pick up, and the christmas decor at Shopping Centers and people really started to shop early this year. Amanda the actual brickandmortar experience is alive and well. Is there an expectation that we will see a healthy instore presence . Thaterybody is expecting because the approach that a lot of retailers have started to embrace is giving them a lot of choices. They can shop online and pick up in store. As you look forward to the retail sales, brickandmortar is still the preferred. Only 3. 9 of those sales are through online retailers. They will continue to grow. We have seen the pressure on brickandmortar. Is the rate of adoption changing . We have seen a lot of pressure on it because we have to provideot able the consumer what they want. Retailerse obsolete need to pick up their game. Like themers experience, convenience and value. The ones that cant will continue to die and fall off as they have in the past. One of the things that has hasen Consumer Spending been a credit link this to go into debt to make purchases. Do we have a lens on whether the American Consumer is in that mood . We track a few key indicators. One of them is consumer confidence. People feel good about themselves, they have a tendency to spend more. Int year we say big uptick self gifting. That 50 rch we did is of the people who shop are going to selfgift. Thats the sign of a strong economy. Seeing as the fundamentals making a difference in this space . As really been changing. People want to live, work and one location. We are seeing more multifamily and food options and residentials added to the shopping experience. When you look at some of the things that have been successful in the past we will continue to see them grow in the future. We just opened that is all working in oned location. The whole seeing destination of investments clients building into the brickandmortar investments . Sure. If you look at some of the Department Store spaces that have been closed from bankruptcy, we see all different kinds of views. Retail, office buildings. Co. Working is very big. The developers who have the space are looking for opportunities to fill that space. Thank you very much. Self gifting a new trend. A new type of loan transforming into a booming quarter of private credit. That may not be a good thing. This is bloomberg. Is time for the bloomberg quick take. London has put a roadblock in the service. Transport for london says uber is not fit and proper to operate in the city and are concerned about invulnerability that allows unauthorized users to upload their picture to drivers accounts which lets them pick up passengers while posing as a licensed driver. Its operating normally and will work with authorities. It could appeal to the Supreme Court. No matter what the Supreme Court ruling is, it will only have an impact on uber in london. Amanda private equity firms are increasingly taking business from the broader syndicated loan market. It can be found in an obscure loan that has been found more that has become more common. Are we talking about . What part of the market is it and describe how these loans work. These are sometimes called one stops. What happens is that these blend First Priority into one debt structure. It used to be that it would be rare to see one larger than a billion dollars and this year alone we have seen several. This is clearly showing how redhot the demand is for private credit. Tell us why they are so popular. For one, private equity firms are driving the push. Options have become more competitive, its important for them to have their options tied up and ready to go. One of the things that raises an eyebrow is when you hear about these bundled together it sounds like different classes of mortgages bundled together. Who is at risk here . The end investors are at risk. One, different types of financing are sometimes bundled and sold. They arent risk tested in a crisis time situation. If there is any problem with these deals, given that they remain unproven, and you have a destress scenario, who takes over . The bankruptcy courts would be the ones deciding the final decision on this. Not all of the unit launches we are talking about have these signed agreements. Some of the smaller ones do. The smaller players tend to avoid these kinds of risks. In terms of whats happening here, we know they are in favor because they are faster than a fully syndicated loan. Are they rated in any way . Haveme credit deals you private ratings but of course they are not public to the rest of the market. Its an interesting piece of the puzzle because there are some big investors in the credit that like insurers, require Credit Ratings to put money into the space. It is having an effect where ratings agencies are getting more business. Tell us about the numbers in the money we are talking about and how big the deals are getting. Hit a record 10. 7 billion in the Third Quarter. It used to be pretty rare. This year alone we have seen 21 larger than 500 million. Thank you for being with us. Wither today, i sat down the scotia bank ceo brian porter. He doesnt see the north American Economy plunging into recession any time soon even amid warnings the expansionary cycle may be long in the tooth. I dont think we will see a recession in the u. S. And canada will not go without the u. S. First. We have heard a lot about the u. S. Consumer in good shape, labor markets are tight, wages are growing. We are seeing the same in canada. We dont see a recession in the near term. We are a bank and we get paid to worry. Risk happens quickly. We govern ourselves accordingly. This is bloomberg markets. Shery ahn deer disappoints. The machinery maker falling as much as five points, dropping the most in six weeks on Third Quarter or an earnings. Amanda the ceo spooked the markets they cautious outlook for next year. For more insight we are joined ellino who isr c with us from princeton. Lets talk about the outlook. Is this just the case of a new ceo being overly conservative and setting a low bar or does it reflect the fundamentals . Its a combination of both. Recorder wasnt that bad. Its the outlook weighing on deer. They have a new ceo in that seat less than a month. It could be the case of him setting a low bar and taking a cautious approach to next year. Here is a lot of uncertainty you have had challenging growing and harvest conditions. There is a lot of conservatism built into the forecast. Shery ahn one of the things that was interesting was loan losses on equipment finance. Anything that could suggest weakness for others . Certainly one of the disappointments during the quarter. They seem to be taking a proactive approach in managing this to the best of their ability. It is something that we will closely watch moving forward. Something that they can definitely keep an eye on. There was billions of dollars being paying paid out to farmers because of the trade wars. Why isnt it having an impact . If you look, farmers have not new government aid to buy pieces of equipment that cost hundreds of thousands of dollars. Typically what they do is pay down debt, put away money for a rainy day. I dont really see government to being a big catalyst accelerate equipment spending. Hurt, you may get some replacement buying, but as far as being a big driver of demand, we will have more of a cautious view. Between is a big gap the guidance and what we were looking or on the forward numbers. Aterpillar is trading down little bit today. Is that a fair transference to make . A little bit. We have seen the construction markets slow and deteriorate. There is an inventory issue that needs to be managed closely. You will see production come down across the production stage. Tends to be a little bit more conservative, but if you look at their north american outlook, they have it down 5 and most regions flat across the globe. We will leave it there. Great to have your thoughts. Christopher chile note of bloomberg intelligence. On can see all of our news tv go. Mark lets get the first word. China is cracking down on cryptocurrencies. At least five local exchanges have halted operations or announced they will no longer serve domestic users this month. China is stepping up scrutiny of his of its currency weeks after president xi jinping ignited a market frenzy by declaring beijing support for blockchain technology. S Jeremy Corbyn accused them of risking the National Health service in secret talks with the usp the accusation comes as corbyn seeks to divert the focus away from allegations of antifeminism antisemitism. Johnson denies the health because the Health Care System is up to sale after redacted documents about negotiations were revealed. Aheadn is leading corbyn of the december 12 general election. Former white House Counsel donald mcganns subpoena is temporarily on hold the federal judge who ordered him to appear before Congress Wants time to consider the legal issues raised by the Justice Department in seeking a longer delay
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