You say to yourself, come on, come on, come on. This monday is the come on where new york city reopens. With that, a better jobs report, and accident of course, the president talking it up. I thought the research over the weekend from Goldman Sachs, j. P. Morgan and the others was just outstanding, putting shade and putting nuance on that jobs report of friday. Jonathan lets be clear. For this market, for the Global Financial community, friday never really ended. It went through the weekend into monday. The equity market continues to rally. We continue to look ahead this week to a Federal Reserve i just wanted to have the payrolls report change the feds approach to the News Conference this week, tom. Tom maybe a little bit of nuance to it, but i really dont think it plays in all that much. You ught it was great, come down, and the amount off they calculate it roughly of 15 recovery in the labor economy. I dont think thats enough to have vice chairman turn to chairman sandowl say change the plan. I dont see that, john. Jonathan i totally agree with you. Thats one thing to look out for this week. We got to start with new york city reopening, the long process of reopening. I think for many people, looking at the process play out here in the United States, on the economic side, i want to emphasize that, on the economic side specifically, the data has looked ok as we slowly got the reopening process underway. Lisa thats what wall street is laser focused on, and i think you wisely raise the point, the long road to reopening. Yes, today marks the beginning of phase one of the reopening, which will last at least two weeks before phase two starts. This is Curbside Pickup and things of that nature. Thats the main thing that im watching today. Also, on the docket to keep in mind, President Trump is meeting with some Law Enforcement at 3 00 p. M. At the white house. Interesting to see whether he makes any comments over the past weeks developments. Plus later in the day, the World Bank Releases its economics prospect report. To toms point earlier, the question about the jobs data, the question about economists ability to predict what is going to happen with this economy globally is in laser focus. How much credence do we give some of these projectionsst right now . Jonathan just to wrap things up, lisa mentioning the president of the United States, several reports that we might get an address this week on race and unity. A lot of people wanting to see whether that will actually happen or not. Tom an extraordinary weekend. And folks, we will go to our Kevin Cirilli here in about eight, nine, maybe 10 minutes, and that will be an important conversation. I love what greg said in his morning note on the president. He said this is a critical week for the president , particularly how he frames the competition, Vice President biden, a democrat, neutralist as a democrat tilted over to the liberals. That will be a topic for mr. Cirilli here in a bit. Jonathan well head down to washington in about 15 minutes time. What a rally weve seen off the bottom over the last couple of months. Mike swell from Goldman Sachs joins us. Friday, what did friday change for you as you look ahead to the weeks and months ahead through 2020 . Mike i think that friday was just an example of a continuation of the impact of government policy. So big impact on fiscal, big impact of Monetary Policy that the rally can continue, because the level of support from the government has been so significant, crating enormous amount of cash, that is really looking for a reason to get investd. When you look at the employment rocket the discussion you had earlier today about the questions and the number, were a long ways away from getting American Workers back to work in a very meaningful way. So the jobs situation is going to be one that is going to continue to be an issue for the next six months to a year. So i wouldnt necessarily call victory are w regard to the job picture. I think we have a long, long way to go. What i think youre seeing right now in markets is the more the impact of significant, significant policy, liquidity, more so than confidence in reopening. Jonathan the policy effort has clearly worked. They wanted to divorce financial conditions from the economy. I think weve done that. I think a lot of people are trying to work out whether the Economic Conditions catches up with where financial conditions have taken us. Is that a challenge for the next couple of months or the turn of the year . Mike that is the number one, two, and three question with regard to how you think about Financial Markets here. At Goldman Sachs, what we did last week, we have a daily forum where we get together all different investors. We brought in our multiasset people, our fundamental equity investors, as well as fixed income, and had kind of a cage match around this topic. And the conclusion that we came to is that, number one, the financial conditions that have been supported by the fed and by governments through fiscal policy will dominate in the near term. But in the long term, its going to be earnings and jobs that are going to matter. And i think that its too early to call victory with regard to where earnings are going to end up. I think a lot of investors are saying that, you know, were going to jump back in 2021 to the earnings that we saw in 2019. We have a long, long way to go, and i think that theres a lot more repair that has to happen in the economy. We really dont know how companies are going to react to a different state of Global Economy when we have an issue, a medical issue thats going to be so significant and change the way that we do business. So our view right now is that for the near term, policy wins, stay long risk assets. But over the longer term its going to be about earnings and jobs. Tom i want to go to your work with Goldman Sachs, and before that with friedman. With your expertise in mortgagebacked securities, lot of rents arent being paid. A lot of commercial real estate of every grade isnt going to work out. And theres all the loans and fancy derivative instruments off the back of that. Are you troubled at all by a pending real estate crisis in the nation because rents are not being paid . Mike i would say that the residential picture is going to be 100 correlated to the job picture. So if we expect to continue to get america back to work and we can drive the true Unemployment Rate below 10 , were likely not to have a Housing Market issue, whether on the price issue or whether on the rent issue. And so i think in terms of housing, we dont have oversupply like we had oversupply in 2007, and we dont have too much leverage in the system. Wee kind of fixed the very, very high loan situation, the interestonly loan situation. We dont have borrowers that are leverages. Were really going to be dependent upon jobs. I think if we continue to see jobs improve, we dont have a Housing Marketish. I do think in the commercial Real Estate Market, theres a lot of adjustment that has to occur. Theres going to be a decent amount of restructuring of loans. Theres going to be some dwaults obviously on the retail side. But if you look at the commercial Real Estate Market, theres a big debate there if we think that were going to see a lot of Companies Move out of major hubs, major cities and diversify their exposure, having a negative impact on commercial real estate. The other side of that is in a socially distant world, youre finding that companies are actually looking for more Square Footage to be able to bring workers back in a safe way. So we actually think that the commercial Real Estate Market is one that has still a lot of opportunity f. We see reopening of the economy, like the equity market is telling you, you ought to see stabilization in the commercial Real Estate Market. If you look in the world we live in, not in the direct market, but in the commercial Real Estate Securities market, we have not seen a significant recovery in pricing there. If we see the economy get back like the equity market is telling you, we think theres going to be a lot of opportunity in some of the mezzanine commercial securities to be able to earn equitylike returns. Lisa im just wondering, you were saying its time to stay risk on. Certainly a lot of people have been risk on. If you look at highyield bonds in the u. S. , theyve gained 22 since late march. Weve seen 3. 5 billion flow into the biggest highyield bond in the past week alone. Dont fight the fed, but you can front run it. Has the fed already been front run fully or are there further opportunities sneer mike i dont think fully. I still think theres going to be a lot of demand for u. S. Creditrelated assets. Keep in mind, its not just front running the fed, but were in a global Interest Rate environment where there are no Interest Rates. Were basically zero around the globe. And the u. S. Credit market still is a market that offers investors yield. Demand for yield is very, very significant. I think people will continue to view not only the u. S. Treasury market, but also the u. S. Corporate credit market as, in general, a safe haven. So i do think theres more troom run. However, more broadly around the question around risk as and its where we go from here, in the short term, we do think that policy zero rates are going to drive risk as ritz higher from here, but thats not going to last forever. In the end, its going to be about earnings. So in our discussion last week, our cage match around where we go from and here have risk assets gone too far, we definitely came to the conclusion that this is going to be a winners and lawsers market, both on the equity side and the credit side, and its time to think a little bit about moving away from just kind of being long beta and really focusing on the types of companies that will be the survivors and will gain market share. So we do think active management will be a very important part of future returns versus just the beta. We want to know who wins the cage fight at Goldman Sachs. How does that work out over the weekend, when that plays out . Mike well, im 65, 220 pounds, so im the biggest person, so i always win. Who wins the cage match . The answer is shortterm, risk on. Longterm, its going to really rely upon earnings. With the data we have so far, its irrelevant to the longer term macro picture. Stay tuned. Follow whats going on in china. Follow whats going on in south korea in terms of reopening and whats going on with the consumer, whats going on with corporate earnings in those countries. Because those will be leading indicators for what goes on here. Jonathan mike swell, fantastic work, as always. Always appreciate your time. Mike swell there of Goldman Sachs. Alongside tom teen, im jonathan ferro. The long road ahead, as we take the first step and reopen new york city. Much more still to come. From new york city this morning, good morning for our audience worldwide. This is bloomberg. Rickity ajrkts u. S. City hit hardest by the coronavirus starts to reopen today in this initial phase. New york city will allow construction and manufacturing and wholesale trade to start offering again. Retail stores can offer curbside and instore pickup. If all goesing with, new york could expand the renoping two weeks. More than 17,000 people in the city died from the coronavirus. An aggressive proposal from the minneapolis city stuns coil. A majority of its members say they support disbanding the citys Police Department. That comes just as the state launches civil rights investigation following the death of george floyd. One city councilmember says she wants to end policing as we know it. Lawmakers say disbanding the police force and starting a new one would be a long, complex process. Saudi arabia raised oil prices, the most in at least two decades. That came a day after the opec coalition extend its historic output cuts, the biggest saudi price hike will hit july exports to asia. Overall the increases for saudi crude raised almost all of the discounts the ding come made during its onemonth price war with russia. Brent crude has more than doubled since late april, still down 35 this year. In japan, the economy shrank less than expected in the first quarter. G. D. P. Fell an annualized rate of 2. 2 , but theres a catch. The result was based on a survey that probably overstated the strength of Japanese Business investment during the pandemic. First quarter figures may be revised downward later. Global news 24 hours a day on air by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analyst. The numbers are great. This leads us on to a long period of growth. Well have the greatest well go back to having the greatest economy anywhere in the world, nothing close. I think were going to have a very good upcoming few months. Jonathan the president of the United States following the jobs report this past friday. Good morning to you all awere live on bloomberg tv and radio. Tom, the risk for the single data point do you extrapolate that improvement out too far, far too quickly. A topic of debate for us through this morning. Tom its really interesting, john, to that point, how you correlate any kind of improvement in the job economy over to g. D. P. J. P. Morgan made very clear over the weekend, maybe they were wrong, maybe were going see a more rapid improvement. But they hedged it about one, two, three, four, five ways to sunday to get us to september. Jonathan remarkable rally the last couple of months. The s p 500, threeweek winning streak coming into this week. Lets get you price action worldwide. Equity futures higher, up. 6 . We push out by 18 points, about two hours and change away from the opening bell in new york city. In the bond market, treasury yields, just a little bit higher again. Its been really interesting to see this. 10year yields now. 91 , up a basis point. The curve steeper at a 30year advancing three basis points as well. Another theme in the mix over the last couple of weeks has been that weaker dollar story, and that continues with a weaker dollar against the aussie. Just a little bit stronger against the euro. Tom want to point out, oil. Ed morris with a blistering note from citi group about two hours ago making clear he doesnt buy the inventory story, but oil, 42 on brent gets your attention. Right now we must consider washington, and we have been really thrilled with our Kevin Cirilli, our chief washington correspondent, who is not only looking at the many sides of the National Debate on protests, but also the many parties involved and the different shades of gray in this great National Debate. Kevin cirilli joins us this morning. Kevin, the lead story is about refunding, defunding, abandonment of police forces. Gregory says this is a gift on a silver platter to the president , who this week can go after the Vice President and say what kind of president would you be . How will the president take this debate and push it towards Vice President biden . Kevin were expecting to hear from President Trump this week in some type of address, whether it be national or at a press conference, where the president addresses race issues in this country. But hes also likely going to discuss the issue of Defunding Police departments. It comes following over the weekend when Minneapolis City Council voted to defund their Police Department and break ties with their Police Department. But what that would look like is really just a dramatic reshifting, im told, about how the city of minneapolis reallocates funds. Greg is absolutely correct. When i talked to a republican strategist on downballot races, its not just a gift to President Trump, but also to Senate Majority leader mitch mcconnell, whos trying to keep control of the republicancontrolled senate. Republicans want to have the debate of Defunding Police departments. Now, in contrast to that, former Vice President joe bidens campaign wants to have the open discussion of making sure that africanamericans are also heard. But beyond that, he needs that africanamerican coalition that obama had to turn out for him if he wants to beat President Trump. Tom how alone is the president on this monday . Kevin i think in terms of putting together republicans, he has not seen a wide spread flocking away from republicans who are currently in office. Former secretary of state colin powell over the weekend, the president tweeting out that he takes issue with colin powell going to vote for joe biden. But in terms of folks who are still in office, the president enjoys popularity in red states. Lisa im wondering, shifting gears from the defunding of the police and the political debate around that, the reopening of the United States and the economy, im wondering about the dilemma for republicans after the jobs report on friday showed much better than expected scenario. How much pressure that reduces on their expectation for further fiscal stimulus. Kevin you know, thats a great point. And in terms of more economic stimulus, i think based upon the conversations that ive had at the end of last week with republican members, theyre still anticipating sometime in between, right when they return from rise at the end of july, right before the august recess, so july 23 through the first week of august, that would be the window for there to be another economic round of stimulus passed. But also some type of legislation likely, maybe on king some Police Jonathan were going to leave it right there because of the connection. Thank you very much, sir. Lets talk about this reopening, tom keene. Lets get over to harold square. 34th street here in manhattan, absolutely unbelievable contrast as we begin the slow process of reopening this commep in new york city, yet still some of the major retail organizations arent just unable to open their businesses, some of them are still boarded up, tom. Tom well, theyre boarded up. You really nail it, john, as two different thrust going on here. One of them is the public wants open now. Theres no question about that. You can feel it on the streets of new york. You can see it with people. Again, heavily masked, but the other two themes, john, are the boarding up because of the protests and looting, which seems days ago now, the looting definitely. And then other is just how do you get these stores open fast . Im going to be fascinated, john, to see where we are thursday and friday with this socalled opening of new york. Jonathan lisa, this is phase one. Whats phase two, phase three, and how quickly do we get there . Lisa it really depends on the data. Its not going to be less than two weeks in each phase as the officials try to gauge the data. And honestly, john, im looking at the data coming out of arizona, where the i. C. U. Beds are getting filled up and the cases are increasing, california, florida. The case counts are going up as some of these regions reopen. We are expecting the same thing in new york. Theres a question about the protests and how much the surge theres going to be there. All of these will be factors in the second phase of reopening. The initial one is Curbside Pickup and construction and basic functioning. Its not going to be all doors open. I am curious to see how many people show up, though. Joint bias in this market and the shift weve seen over the last couple of weeks has been absolutely remarkable. We all saw pictures of packed beaches several weeks ago. I said at the time, its probably close al lined to your view of this market. It triggered encouragement or fears. It reminds me that have blue increase, gold dress. Some people saw blue, other people saw gold. I think everyone at the moment is seeing gold. Weve seen a massive shift in the last couple of weeks. Tom a huge shift, and stung move on friday, but kevin, whats so interesting here is away from all this debate, theres been some of the pandemic data of the last number of days, particularly in texas, a bit distressing. I dont want to oversell that, but its an issue to me. Jonathan yeah. Well try pick occupy that theme later in the program. Kevin will be back with us a little bit later this morning. From new york city this morning, good morning to all. This is bloomberg. Zpwroip new york city, this is bloomberg surveillance. Were live on bloomberg tv and radio. Alongside tom keane, im jonathan farro. Two hours away from the opening bell. Heres your price action. From new york city, with equities futures up 16 points on the s p 500, we advance by another half of one percent, adding weight to the gains of last week and the last three weeks for that matter. In the bond market, big theme going into the fed this wednesday. Yields higher. Curve steeper. 9 . Other basis point to the dollar weakness, we get some Dollar Strength against the euro. Euro coming back. 2 , but weakness elsewhere. I want to round things out with a look at crude for you. Slightly negative, 39 a barrel. Brent at 42. Even as opec plus agreed to extend cuts. Tom, its the industry that i want to talk about for a brief moment as this headline crosses from the bloomberg. The b. P. Plans to cut up to 15 of jobs by the end of 2020. Last time i checked, b. P. Had about 70,000 employees. Do quick math, thats a little over 10k in terms of job losses if they go there. This speaks to the theme i think of the next six to 12 months. How do these companies right size, get away from the equity market . How do they right size for the world we have to adjust to in the coming months . Tom and whats interesting, john, usually the cuts are 3 or 4 , maybe 5 is a big cut. To see one slide there is a big deal. I think one of the things here is the nationalization or government intrusion into oil. How United Kingdom intrusive is British Petroleum . Ive got a concept of total. Ive got a concept of exxon. Is b. P. , is it incestuous with the British Government or truly separate . Jonathan ill be diplomatic and say its far less intrusive than russia or saudi arabia. Hows that for a response, tom . Tom well, i guess that works, but i mean, b. P. Is i think port of ephemeral out there. Its had an interesting 10 years as well. John, i think that it will be interesting to see, as you say, if theres follow on to this. John, why dont you bring in our six esteemed guest who can esteem for us on the bond market . Jonathan lets bring in localy, fantastic to catch up with you. In the energy space sthrks a cyclical rotation or a dash for trash . What have you seen in the market over the last several weeks, and how would you characterize it . The energy universe, along with any of the deep cyclicals, both in the equity and credit markets, are showing the same trends, which is it was beaten down so badly that if you believe in the recovery, these are the next sectors to recover. So theres a little bit of a catchup that the market is trying to do, and part of it, these are the sectors that people dumped very evil early on and now just seeing are seeing a strong rally from. A performance perspective, i suspect people are also feeling the pinch. For us, we talked about it before, energy is a nogo on the credit side. Limited upside, all down side. Its a continuous cyclical sector that keeps disappointing on the down side. Jonathan when does reality submit what drives it . We talked to mike swell, a former colleague of years from Goldman Sachs, and he said this real push and pull, the momentum of the moment is the big, big push going forward. Then theres this big head wind on the horizon, which is what do the fundamentals look like . I dont think were thinking about the latter at the moment. Were just focused on the former. How do you think that plays out . I think both the equity and the credit markets have basically written off 2020. I think whats challenging is what i dont buy is i dont think you can fully divorce fundamentals from the economic reality. The way, if you went back and read, since 2007, 2008, you will see a similar trend. Everybody gets really excited about liquidity. In fact, in march, from 2008 when jpjp, lehmans c. E. O. Was on the record in an interview saying fed action has taken solvency off the table. We saw that didnt really happen. What happens is, when the economy starts catching up and, you know, we were down, if we recover back and stay down 50 , hats not a full recovery. Thats going to form your 2021 and 2022 estimates. Lisa you did say increasingly i believe that Central Banks are theyre manage asset prices. If they truly are committed to reducing market voluntarily at this time, which has translated into managing asset prices higher, why not go all in risk, because thats whats worked, and the fed has shown no illingness to back away. Excellent question. It can certainly be the case. But that was also the assumption people went all in on lehman and that it didnt work out. Thats really russian roulette. I did listen to your interview with dudley, and i think the challenge is if you believe in that, that really creates a because hazard, these are going to form Systematic Risk to the economy and the market, and youre going get a fed bailout, and that eventually question the feds independence. Im not sure were there yet. I have to have more faith in the institution than that. Tom are bonds fixed income right now . Do you perceive it as a coupon and danger zone, or can you actually find total return . I dont understand how you get total return with fields, whether theyre creeping or higher higher, whatever. I believe that means price down. Can you actually make a total return in the next 12 months in this game . Its more about carry on the safer side, thats for sure. To reach a total return, you have to take a leap of faith and get into some of these beaten down sectors. Thats the only other way. The rest of it is just carry and, you know, we have been on the Investment Grade side, and what we have done is, well look at crossover companies that are getting capital structure is split. Part of the part tv is high yield, but the i. G. Company will continue to get access to funding, which should pull the spreads for the sub order nature part of the capital structure as well. But its far its very few opportunities like that. Tom what do mere mortals could . Were on a simulcast here nationwide. People are listening and watching that cant do a sophisticated spread of i. G. And h. Y. Thats bond var began, folks, like what you flare lisa and john. So if i cant do the i. G. H. Y. Game, what do i do if i just want to make a coupon . If you just want to make a coupon, you just stay with the Higher Quality and do what everybody else has been doing, which is follow the fed. But again, thats not going to give us substantial term. We call it the 25 club. We basically go between cash, credit, defensive equities, and some cyclical equities. To johns earlier question, if the recovery rises to the upside, youre going to make a lot more money on the cyclicals. If the economy disappoints, then we have the perception through our cash holdings. Jonathan i want to wrap things up with a final question. Thank you very much. You mentioned lehman earlier. Someone said this a couple of months ago to me, lets park the vshaped recovery that weve seen in the market. Put that to one side. Are you saying that what weve seen wasnt lehman, it was bear, and theres more shocks to come, perhaps an even bigger one . What im seeing is, when the economy slows down, it exposes overleveraged balance sheets. It exposes fraud. It exposes bad management teams. Those sort of things that people havent really focused on that. Central bank is here, and heres the gush of liquidity. One thing i will leave you guys with is when they publish a note and say this company is fine because they got a credit amendment, do me a favor, read the details and work backwards from the leverage ratios. What you will see is pretty drastic numbers. Nowhere are people focused on that. She han lale topcuoglu, is one of the people that actually reads the prospectus. That was a little bit of snark, i know many of you do. Before everyone starts writing in to me. Tom, lets get back to the story on job cuts, because its absolutely critical and to build on that conversation we just had with lale as well. We dont know what this economy really looks like in six to nine months. We have no idea what capacity, many of these multinationals will be operating for a sustained period of time. What we do know in the short terge as we see the data come through, were focused on the rate of change, just how quickly we improve. To lales point, its going to be in the months to come where we get our hands around the plateau, what does that look like in several months time, tom. Tom right. Its also going to be the distribution of what those jobs are. Jobs at British Petroleum are not the same as restaurant and bar jobs in new york city or in washington. So the distribution of incomes, what quality of salary jobs were going to lose is going to be something. Jonathan i would make it a little bit more nuanced, but what we learned on friday was just how temporary some of the layoffs were that have taken place over the last several months, what we learn over the next several months is the permanency of some of the job losses, and i might add the job losses still to come as well. Lisa theres a lot of focus on the adjustments within this data, the idea that the jobs report that we got on friday included furloughed workers as still being employed or coming back online, and this adjusted things to a three percentage point lower Unemployment Rate than otherwise would have had. The question that i have, though, is not the exact number. Its exactly to the point that youre making, john. As this goes on, companies that have avoided making layoffs, like on wall street, lot of the white collar jobs are thinking of making job cuts, and were hearing this across the board. The economy is not going to make a vshaped recovery according to the vast majority of economists. As a result, john, there will be job cuts that will be permanent and not very many people can game this out. Jonathan yeah, these companies wanted to remain really, really nimble, and only then would they start to right size. It wasnt in the shutdown that these companies would right size the business. Its in the next several months that they have to think about what demand will look like outside of the shutdown. From new york city, as we slowly begin the process to rethough economy, right here in new york city, alongside tom keene, im jonathan farro, live on bloomberg tv and radio, getting you set up for another trading week after another really decent week of gains on the s p 500. The banks, what a rally the s p 500 banks had last week, up more than 16 over one week alone and still down and down hard on the year so far through 2020. Futures this morning advancing 18 points on the s p 500. We are up. 6 from new york this morning, good morning, this is bloomberg. Ritika the mayor says if he sees indicators in the wrong direction, hell be vocal about it. Retail stores can often Curbside Pickup. President trump is trying to link joe biden to activists duels defund the police. The president s goal appears to be to portray the democratic president ial candidate as weak on crime. Bide protests over the death of a black man have the president on the defensive. President trumps order to pull 9,500 american troops out of germany has rocked order. The move would cut u. S. Troop strength in germany by onefourth. Its another sign of the disconnect between washington and berlin. President trump has criticized chancellor Angela Merkels government for not meeting defense spending targets. And the worlds auto market is rebounding, and the trade war up the u. S. , sales were 1. . The government added stimulus measures such as tax rebates to attract customers back to show rooms. Air and had bnb is seeing a surge in summer demand. Its one of the first signs of life for the travel industry, which ground to a halt in march. Airbnb has more nights booked for stays between may 17 and june 3 than it did a year ago. Meanwhile, the c. E. O. Has rolled out an i. P. O. This year. We have the chance of even sending agreement to the end of 2022. Until death do us part. Jonathan the Energy Minister on the Unusual Alliance between opec and plus. Opec plus extending out cuts. Crude slightly negative, 39. 30. Brent crude, 42. 30. Alongside tom keene, im jonathan farro, together with lisa abramowicz. His is bloomberg surveillance. The fed on deck a little bit later this week. Equity futures are positive. By round about. 6 . Were you will 18 points on the s p 500. There is no doubt, tom keene, we have made some progress on a series of issues and liquidity crisis a couple of months ago, the fed has done a lot of work there. It wasnt so long ago that crude was deeply negative, and here we are back up near 40. Tom just extraordinary to see and really, folks, the path from 30 brnt to global price, floating price, up to 40, has just been a surprise for all. Joining us now, amrita sen. Shes outstanding at the dynamics of supply and demand. Amrita, i want to dove tail your wonderful narrow work with those that have taken more geopolitical strategic work, because it folds in. If opec plus members, and lets go with opec, if they cheat, how does that affect your world of the minutia of supply and demand . Amrita i think in terms of the question you asked about compliance, by the way, we are resuming, we just cannot see how iraq, nigeria, kazakhstan, given their broader fiscal issues, theyre just so cashstrapped, will comply t. Just means that the rebalancing takes longer. It is simply that. Supplies are now falling faster than demand. Weve been saying this right from the stock, that they would start from early june, and they have begun. But the more these guys cheat, it just means that the overall supply number, the production will be less than what the headline numbers suggest. Lisa im struggling to understand the supply demand dynamic right now. A lot of people saying the promised cuts of opec plus and the potential enforcement of them, which has been a challenge for years, that that has been the main driver of some of the recent price gains, and other people rails the concern that the shale patch is slowly starting to bring rigs back on. How much is this the story and how much is demand still the main driver here . How quickly the Global Economy can get back up to speed. Amrita i think youre exactly right. I think the global demand, at least in our view, is still very much the key driver. We did fall to record low levels in terms of demand, now we are recovering. And that just means that you do need higher supplies. Now, i still stand by the problem we have in the market in oil, the data is opaque. The data is very lagged. We still dont know how much we fell by. If we dont know how much we fell by, but the market assumed we would hit tank. I remember talking to you guys about that. But we never did, because maybe demanded demand didnt fall by much, and because of negative prices, supplies fell tremendously, and thats what caused us to overshoot to the downside. In some respect, we have overshot. But we need some of the supply back, because now refineries are bringing back production and demand is rising. I still think weve gone too far, because the demand is fragile. Supplies from the u. S. Are going to start to come back. Its not like a slam dunk that, of course, prices should be rising from here. Jonathan do you find the supply in the United States is more elastic when prices roll over aggressively than when they rally . Amrita yes, i think the rate of change is absolutely the critical thing. The main thing i will say for right now, especially balls you asked about the u. S. In relation to gasoline demand, is unemployment, on our economic models, thats the biggest driver, even more so than rices. Jonathan new york city reopening. I think were all trying to get our heads around how quickly demand recovers. This is a slow, slow process for new york city. But going global, beyond china, where we have a longer data set, whats the recovery and demand look like for these economies reopening . Amrita if you believe demand fell about 20 Million Barrels per day, we have easily recovered about 10 million to 12 Million Barrels per day, and right now we believe Global Oil Demand is about 90 Million Barrels per day, give or take. Again, parts of china are actually above last years levels, because the government has its basically driving a big stimulus package. Its going take a long time, particularly in the aviation sector. But yes, economies are opening up around the world, because lockdown simply isnt sustainable for growth in the medium term. Jonathan am ri ta, fantastic to catch up with you, to get your thoughts. Lets build on this. We all have trade data over in china over the weekend, and i think a lot of people looking at various industries to see what imports and exports look like. When it comes to imports of commodities, i think its always important to look at volume and not nominal value, given where commodities were 12 months ago compared to now and the volume commodity imports into china is actually recovered really, really quite well as the economy has reopened. I think what were looking to see is how quickly the same thing, just in terms of consumption, happens here in the United States. Lisa so far, early indications are people are driving around much more, but theyre still not flying all that much, and that is a major aspect of oil consumption, lot of questions in the data, especially as we look at a new york city reopening. I have to say that if you look at the projections, 400,000 people may be going back to work, may. How many of them will . How many of them will actually start commuting . These are some of the Big Questions that really factor into the demand side, which is still at this point the main driver of oil prices, more than even supply. Jonathan lets talk about Curbside Pickup as well. How many retailers can take advantage of Curbside Pickup in new york city . How many small retailers, small shops can actually take advantage of that . Tom i just dont see t. Im glad you bring it up, because i think some of the ideas tossed around are pretty desperate. People just got to get out and do it and figure it out. Weve got family members in china, and they made very clear in shanghai, you know, you do a policy, and it takes two weeks for people to sort through it. Again, i wonder where we are 9 end of this week, and i really wonder, john, where we are the middle of august, trying to get the kids back to school in september. Jonathan it is phase one, and only phase one, the very early stages of reopening this economy new york city. From notice city, good morning to you all. Alongside tom keene, im jonathan farro together with lisa abramowicz. We couldnt you down to the opening bell. One hour and 35 minutes away with equity futures up. 6 on the s p 500. We advance 19 points. In the bond market, heres the situation for you. 10year treasury, on a 10year, up a single basis point. A 30year up by three. Higher yields and a steeper curve, that has been your story over the last month or so. And foreign exchange, the euro, after a big rally, euro dollar coming back in a little morn a tenth of one percent. From new york city, this is Bloomberg Live on bloomberg tv. I think were going to have a very sharp rebound, and youll see in the second half of the year, probably with about 20 economic growth. The latest Economic Indicators and survey results confirm a Sharp Construction of the euro era economy and rapidly deteriorating labor market conditions. This is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan farro, and lisa abramowicz. Tom good morning, everyone. Jonathan farro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene, our simulcast of bloomberg surveillance. Welcome on Bloomberg Radio across this nation, all of you digitally at home, still at home, even though new york city