Flow and that is a macro positive. Week, itked about last suggests there is some optimism on the part of traders that may be some sort of scenario around airlines could some serve stimulus could get done but theres so much uncertainty. Airlines have been outperforming more recently. Getd are we starting to something on the 10 year yield . Abigail we are still in that range. The 10 year yield is trying to move to the top of the range in the range is about 5080 basis points with the fed as a buyer keeping bonds in that range. Its hard to know whether it will be broken. Another market is amazon. The s p and the nasdaq are down in amazon in amazons down for its for the day in a row after the prime day event, suggesting some folks may not be to my optimistic about those results. Maybe americans of had Online Shopping fatigue. David one of the risks of the is the continued possibility of more stimulus and the election which is now 15 days away. Is with us, always a delight to have you with us. Lets start with the election. You say dont count this over yet. There has been a stubborn advantage that former Vice President joe biden has had but that seems to be eroding a little . Maybe a little bit, great to be with you. The polls show that in several key battleground states, pennsylvania in particular, bidens lead is not insurmountable. Only fiveead but its points and many of the states. If you look at where Hillary Clinton was four years ago in some of those key states, she had a bigger lead over mr. Trump then what mr. Biden does today . Bidenh, everyone assumed will hang on and when wisconsin, michigan and pennsylvania but as you say, for years ago, Hillary Clinton was doing better and lost all three. David do we think we are better at the state forecasting . It was tough on the pollsters for years ago but National Polls were pretty close. In some of the states we had problem but are we doing a better job . I think the poll takers doing do a good job in getting it just right. They have that down but what they dont have down his turnout. Its hard to measure. Enormous might have turnout with mailin ballots so its hard to get our arms around that. Over turn to this drama stimulus. We are told we have a deadline of tomorrow. The speaker of the house said tomorrow but what is going on with this . Does Mitch Mcconnell have the votes even if he wants to get them . No, he doesnt and this makes this whole thing kind of a waste of time. They keep saying that pelosi might get a deal with steven mnuchin. There is an outside chance they could do that tomorrow but the chances that republicans in congress would approve a 2 trillion deal, those chances are close to zero. David it doesnt matter if President Trump wants it. Ups this set up set it that the republicans are at fault . Thats a narrative that pelosi would like to reinforce. I think she is in no rush to do a favor for President Trump. She might cut a deal but then she will say the republicans never would approve it in congress. Either way you slice it, i dont think we will get a stimulus deal probably until after the inauguration. David many people say is it a matter of when and not if. Maybe after we get a new congress in january . Its a big deal for the markets. The markets want a deal and its a big deal for individuals who worry about foreclosures and bankruptcies and small businesses. There will be one at some point but i fear that it could be early february before its signed into law. David david there are also Senate Elections. The balance of the senate could be determined on november 3. Does the stimulus play into some of the Senate Elections . It sure does and i think tomorrow or the next day when mcconnell holds a showboat, someone like Susan Collins of maine who is in trouble would love to say yes, i supported this bill. It could help some of them. I think the toughest call of all the still the senate. I think biden will win but the senate is a tough call. It might wind up a time of that happens, the winning party, theoretically the democrats would break that tie. David which senate races will you look at to determine whether it is a tie . Instead of the usual suspects, i might look for a surprise like south carolina, lindsey graham, montana, alaska, iowa where a republican incumbent is now trailing. Twoe could be a surprise or but otherwise, i think its likely republicans will lose for an democrats will lose one. That is a tie but i think that will be there will be a surprise or two. David what about republicans picking up one or two for example in michigan . That race seems harder to determine. You are right even though biden is doing well in michigan and the democrat is not doing very well. Either way you slice it, there will be a majority in the senate of one or two. Elizabeth warren would love to be treasury secretary but they may not be able to spare her senate seat in massachusetts. The governor of massachusetts is a republican and if she left, she would be replaced by a republican. That may preclude her from any hopes of eating treasury secretary. That would be quite a scenario. Thank you so much. David chief u. S. Policy strategy at agf investments. We will speak with nancy pelosi tomorrow at 12 00 eastern time. How up, we will talk about the securities industry has adjusted to covid19 and what issues lie ahead in washington regulation. This is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. David wait turn to Mark Crumpton for first word news. Matt mark Supreme Court has agreed to hear President Trumps appeal involving the border wall and mexico. Two rulings were aimed at blocking the president from using pentagon funds to build more than 100 miles of fencing. The 2. 5 billion was originally appropriated for other purposes. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has set a deadline for a preelection stimulus plan. She says there has been more progress on a deal by tomorrow and the president says hes willing to go higher than 1. 8 trillion. Senate republicans may not go along with something that large. The number of virus cases around the world is now at 40 million. Theook six months to reach first 10 million cases, the last 10 million were added in just 32 days. United states, india and brazil account for more than half the cases. We are one step closer to what could be the Worlds Largest as one atmas group key approval from chinese regulators. Shares in hongst kong and shanghai at the same time. The company could raise about 35 billion dollars from the dual listing. Global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. I am Mark Crumpton, this is bloomberg. David thank you so much. The securities industry and Financial Markets association is holding its annual meeting right now virtually as it comes to terms with a different world from the one it faced a year ago. Can benson will take us through us through take what the industry has had to react to with the pandemic. Thank you for having me. We have been talking about it this morning and i think we will talk about it through the rest of this conference. Covid is really the thing that is front and center. Going back to march 13 when people started testing and going remote in the u. S. The industry has had to adopt this and i would mention a couple of things that are going on. We consistently survey our on their working remote plans and returning to office plans and what we found from the spring to the summers there is optimism of getting more and more people back in after being 95 remote and you get to post labor day and then optimism was tempered with firms reporting 530 Percent People in the office but still a significant number working remote and that thing goingthe same till the end of the year. Firms are waiting to see when they met when they make the next change and that could go well into next year. Releasing an initial Lessons Learned report with their colleagues. Firms are focusing on health and wellness of their people. Number two is that firms will need to undertake after action reports after this effort. Thatr three is to ensure their operational resiliency in regard to Global Operations is sufficient. Number four is to invest and embrace in automation and digitization which the industry has largely done and it has proven to be beneficial. Number four is to collaborate with regulators. There has been a term of this amount of collaboration going back to march and april. Now there is a lot of looking at what we do the post pandemic time where we will see the need to move toward securities and things like delivery, building the processes where you would have some form of Permanent Working remote operations. Out theion, Building Technology platform. This industry is technologically built out and is capable as any but that will need to be even more particular with the continued emphasis on cyber. These are the bigs these are the big things that firms are talking about. At the same time, the industry is right has been quite resilient day to day. Things work better than i think people thought. Request ofudy at the the government in 2007 on creating a playbook for pandemics and this has worked better than people thought it would. David as you say, its worked. Atkets have continued but the same time, as you talk about extending where people work from home to a large degree, what do you think you give up . Is there a discussion about that . This is something at this conference and executives i talk to daily have talked about. Its the cultural aspect of teams working together, the collaborative effort. One of my executives talked about cultural indoctrination of that firms particular culture. On boarding as well. This is something that comes up with many is onboarding new talent and how you bring them up and train them. Those things suffer in this environment. It has worked and its not optimal and in the future i think there will be more Remote Working but there is still a desire to get back to the collaborative framework. David you mentioned working closely with regulators. Looking forward, what are the issues your industry faces . Under a be different President Biden then under President Trump . President trump prides himself on deregulation, is that good for the industry . We have to look at this rule set that was put in place after doddfrank. Any regulator who is involved with that could acknowledge that you have to go back and do a review. To a large extent, that is what has been done and there has been adjustments and calibrations around the edges of it that makes sense. In the most recent environment with market dislocation, we saw in some cases the capital liquidity rules got in the way of other banks being able to provide sufficient marketmaking. Regulators with a number of the various policy levers in place realize they had to make accommodations so they would work as intended. Its always worthwhile to go back and look at that. The second thing we will see is operational rules, supervisory rules around people working remotely, moving away from physical securities even more so than we have, things like wet signatures and looking at each delivery that i think regulators will have to deal with. I dont think it necessarily its a trumper administration or a biden administration. These are things the policymakers at the fcc and the cftc recognize we have to trans and the Regulatory Framework with the technological advances and what opposed pandemic world will look like. David you are looking at a different potential regulatory system, looking at dean materializing securities. Differentok at a world for a lot of your members. To some extent, this is an evolving thing. Back to to go Superstorm Sandy. Even from that point forward, we have been moving in that transition. You go back from when i was a banker a million years ago. The world changed a lot from paper to where we got Superstorm Sandy on that evolution will continue. Challengesof the that Many Companies have had is preserving privacy and security as we go online. What issues have been raised for your industry in particular . Industry has put tremendous effort and resources into privacy and Data Protection even before the pandemic. We had a Good Platform going into this situation were everything was going remote, everybody was on zoom or whatever platform they are using. There is no question that heavy lien on communications createsgy, being remote potentially more risk. Its something the sender see his whelp afford well prepared for but we have to continue to be prepared for. One of the things that came out of this was the effort of the to put Business Continuity planning and training and Cyber Resilience but that will be increasingly more important going forward. David what is it due to the Business Model for your members . Does it mean more money as far as investing in technology . It sounds like you have increased costs. I think firms feel like there is a good payoff on that cost. We are in an increasingly technological world. I think the firms have shown where they made the investment in technology, that has paid off whether its resiliency or data and Privacy Protection or customer engagement. I think that will continue. David good luck with your conference. Great to talk with you. Tomorrow, we will play part of ceoonversation with tiaa Roger Ferguson tomorrow morning. This is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. David this is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. S time for our march trick our market metrics. The election is only 15 days away. Few investors expect the government stimulus to pass before the election but with joe biden leading the polls come investors are increasingly pricing in a blue wave and significant Government Spending in 2021. You can see how that is showing up on bullish bets on green energy and infrastructure over the past month. A boost in these old economy sectors would provide a lift to valuable to value stocks overall and analyst anticipate a itsarning growth because easier comparison for the value stocks. Index, itook at the attempts to stage a breakout and failing in the end. Since the start of the pandemic, it hit the 1165 level four different times. Four years ago, it bumps up against that level so we have seen a couple of attempts in many failures. David what about beyond equities . Scarlet a democratic sweep and the spending it would entail or could spur inflation and that would probably send treasury yields higher. Goldman sachs says that could pull forward a Federal Reserve rate increase. What youre looking at is fed fund futures which indicate that rates will stay on hold until at least late 2021. In september, the central bank made clear that it will keep rates lower longer and would tolerate inflation above 2 to ensure more robust employment. Goldman sachs says if you look further out, overnight index spread swaps, should show that there is pricing in of a fed lift off in late 2024. The strategists at goldman says if fed rate hikes were to happen before then, it wouldnt affect the front end of the yield curve but you could see volatility ran the five year mark. That part of the curve captures a big part of the hiking cycle. As a result, goldman recommends investors use longer dated options onswaptions. As for the u. S. Dollar, that depends on where the Federal Reserve goes. There isnt much impetus for the dollar to rise in the near term. Over the last couple of days and weeks, the dollar hasnt gone anywhere, not giving much of an indication of who was going to win the election. David that was terrific, thank you. Up next, our swing state series turns the pivotal state of pennsylvania where we talk with little science professor Terry Madonna of franklin and Marshall College to get us started. This is balance on Bloomberg Television and radio. David this is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. Im david westin. Bloomberg first word news, we go to Mark Crumpton. Mark in china, economic recovery from the pandemic continued in the third quarter. Gdp rose 4. 9 from a year ago. That is less than expected but higher than the secondquarter numbers. Salesme, chinas retail rose 3. 3 in september and Industrial Production was up almost 7 . British officials are prepared to water down Prime MinisterBoris Johnsons controversial lawbreaking brexit legislation, a move that could revive failing talks with the european union. The bill rewrites part of the brexit deal struck with the eu last year. News breaking now. The u. K. Government says that it believes this is no basis to resume eu trade talks. It is the largest deal in the shale industry since the collapse and Energy Demand earlier this year. Buycophillips has agreed to concho resources. The takeover will create a heavyweight driller in americas in westlific oilfields texas and new mexico. Global news 24 hours a day, onair, and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Im Mark Crumpton. This is bloomberg. The center for politics and public affairs. Thank you for being with us. Tell us what we need to know about pennsylvania as we look at it election night. Terry lets start with this. As you accurately point out, pennsylvania gave donald trump a victory by 44,000 votes. Less than one percentage point. The fact of the matter is, President Trump. Pennsylvania because his campaign developed what they call and we routinely now called the rust belt strategy. White workingclass voters in portions of our state, and the same is true for other midwestern battleground states, where mining and milling were once dominant, and the ancestors of these workingclass voters or, and nowal, iron natural gas has become a huge part of the pennsylvania economy. , in six counties that he won, every single one of them had at the time a democratic voter registration. By 19,on those counties 20, and two of them by 30 points. In the northeast where anthracite coal was dominant. Trump carry two counties there. I bring up Lackawanna County because scranton is the biggest in pennsylvania. Joe biden lived there until he was 10, talks about it all the time when he is in the state. Only lost line, trump lackawanna to Hillary Clinton by 3500 votes. Erie county by less. Back, from my home state of michigan, there is a lot of dissatisfaction about what came before. Now that President Trump has been president for four years, your poll shows that people in pennsylvania are not happy with where things are heading. Terry you are absolutely right. The real clear politics right now has bided up by four percentage points. Yes,undamental problem is, when we ask about the country moving in a right direction, no way. In thisbiggest problem state and many other states is obviously the coronavirus. At one point, months ago, he was about 50 positive in our state. Onis about 40 positive handling covid19. That has been his most serious problem. Here is the key takeaway. The problem the republicans are having in pennsylvania and a number of the battleground states is with suburban voters. The suburbs in our country were a whollyowned subsidiary of the republican party. In pennsylvania, the midterm election, the republicans the democrats picked up three of the four congressional seats in the philadelphia suburbs. That was part of the democratic wave that but the democrats in control of the house. Abusively, nancy pelosi is now speaker. Particularly, republicans are having a problem with white, collegeeducated women, and millennials. Collegeeducated women have moved sharply away from the republicans and away from President Trump as well. The other group are millennials. 2016, 80 million of them, 23 now, they gave a bigger percentage of their boat to Hillary Clinton than any other age cohort. So make no mistake about it, the big reason right now that President Trump is trailing in pennsylvania is the suburbs that have shifted heavily toward the democrats. And he is not doing as well as he did four years ago with workingclass voters. David that is my question. Should we be mainly focused on the suburbs, particularly philadelphia, versus the southwest in coal country . Is that the battle that will be fought . Terry i think you are exactly right about that. Biden has spent a good about of time in this state. A month ago, he was in allegheny county. That is still solidly blue. He said, by the way, i am for fracking. That is a huge part of the economy, drilling goes on to remove natural gas from the soil. That is a big issue in the southwestern part of our state. Biden wanted to make sure to appeal to the workingclass voters, saying that president has not improved your livelihood, the jobs are not there. Far the most visited state in the union. You talk about battleground state. I joke and i say the candidates and their surrogates are taking so much time in florida, we will give them residence. Its aas you know well, question of momentum, where you are moving toward on election day. Is the momentum shifting in pennsylvania at least somewhat toward President Trump . He still hasbut the problems that i pointed out. Mailin ballots are dominating the election. Far more democrats are getting mailin ballots than republicans. More republicans will vote in person. Exactly how many, and in what states, particularly , we areound states going to have to wait and see. But there is not any doubt, nationally, the momentum is still with Vice President biden. But the lead in many of these battleground states have narrowed a bit. Im not suggesting that biden will not win them, but he leads in that right now, but not at the percentages as two weeks ago. David certainly far from over. Thanks to Terry Madonna. Coming up, we continue our tour of pennsylvania with its current former governor, ed rendell. This is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. Radio. David this is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. Im david westin. Not may be maybe none who know pennsylvania and the politics of pennsylvania better than ed rendell. After serving as mayor, he went on to serve as the governor. Great to have you here. Mental pennsylvania mr. Pennsylvania. Tell us what we need to know going into the election . Rendell biden is a beneficiary of the trump polls. Lying to theare pollsters, even embarrassed that they are voting for trump. I think he runs three points better than he polls. When hillary was only ahead three points before election day, i said on tv i thought we could run into trouble in pennsylvania. Unfortunately, i was right. Bidens lead is closer to seven or eight. Or morean hold five going into election day, he will be in good shape. David biden is ahead by seven in the state of pennsylvania . I have seen some that have been narrower than that. Governor rendell i have seen some that are more. So that is the net average. David are you reasonably confident . Governor rendell [laughter] you never know. This debate is probably less impactful than any last debate in president ial history since we have been having debates. Most have made up their mind. Plus, a ton of people have already voted by mail in pennsylvania. It will be hard to affected as much as the old days. Den is winning in two ways. Margin almost double the that Hillary Clinton got in the philadelphia suburbs. She carried four suburban counties by a margin of 180. I think biden will carry by 300. Secondly, biden is not losing the Rural Counties by nearly as much as hillary did. 7525 for donald trump. 131 for joe biden. These are relatively small counties. Upeach one, biden is picking five, 6 , points better than hillary did. You combine those, and he should win. A fairly significant but it is politics, there is still a couple weeks ago, one debate to go, still a november surprise possible although not likely. You cannot say it is over. The one thing that we are in some here, polls cases are almost too good. We are reminding people what happened to hillary, so we are trying to keep the enthusiasm level up. The early votes are unbelievable. Offs for people to drop their envelopes, unbelievable. David what is the strategy for a president ial candidate . You have to build up a surplus in the east, particularly the suburbs to overcome what you might lose in the west . Governor rendell no question. Election against a very good candidate. I carried 15 out of the 67 counties, but i came out of philadelphia and the four suburban counties 800,000 votes up. It was impossible to catch me after that. David what is the perception of how the president has handled covid19 . As i understand it, there is some resistance among citizens with respect to the shutdowns. Governor rendell there is some, but it is pretty much the same as nationally. 72, 70 3 think we ought to make masks mandatory. But you have a vocal minority on the other side. No question about it. Cuts dramatically in bidens favor. Trump was much closer at the beginning of the year. Has been a real blow to him, no question about it. Jobs will economy, loom large in everyones minds, which is why President Trump has gone after biden on the question of fracking in pennsylvania. Is it true that people overall gave an edge to donald trump in handling the economy over joe biden . Governor rendell yes, but much less than two months ago. Joe biden is for fracking. The only thing he said is he would not let it happen on publicly owned lands. But he is definitely for fracking. I was the governor who opened up fracking in pennsylvania, so it was a good issue for democrats. The current governor, a democrat, is very much profracking. So is joe biden. Natural gas is an important bridge. Burning natural gas produces one half of the carbon that burning coal produces. It is an environmentally better bridge to the future. Someday, we may get all of our electricity from renewables. But at best, that day is 20 years away. David are we going to get a clear answer out of pennsylvania . It looks like a Record Number of absentee ballots across the country, already disputes have arisen. York, 100,000 ballots went out that were defective, which is a legitimacy about the process. What are the concerns about the process of voting . Governor rendell we have never had problems in the past. This is the first time we have had absentee ballots on demand. They were not mailed out en masse. You had to request for a mailin ballot. Then you filled it out and send it in. Of democratsy, 70 voted by absentee. Only 25 of republicans. When midnighty arrives on election night, donald trump will still be ahead in the voting because it will be mostly people who voted at the polls, and that will be significantly tilted toward republicans. As the mailin ballots are counted the next day in the day after that, joe biden, if the polls are correct, should pass trump. Alone will give trump the opportunity to say the election was stolen from us. If they go to court, they have to do something that they do not have to do on tv, which is evidence. There is no evidence of widespread votings broad voting fraud. He talks about those ballots that were thrown in a creek. It was done by a temporary worker, in an election where the republicans can afford to throw away the ballots. David that is former governor ed rendell of pennsylvania. Coming out, we take a look at the National Race with jeanne zaino. This is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. Radio. David this is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. Im david westin. Speaker of the house nancy pelosi says she is still hopeful about a fourth round of stimulus, but if it has to happen, it has to happen by tomorrow. We welcome professor of Political Science at iona college, jeanne zaino. Will it happen by tomorrow . Jeannie i am not confident. We may see something between pelosi and mnuchin. That could happen. But it also has to go through the senate. As much as Mitch Mcconnell wants to get something through, im not sure republicans in the senate will go along with it. It is still an uphill battle. David if it doesnt happen, who does it hurt, who does it help . Jeannie if it doesnt happen, that hurts the president. That is why we have seen him do an aboutface on this. It also hurts some Senate Candidates. Thelook at maine, race for senate. Susan collins would like nothing more to be able to tell the voters she had her name on the deal. I think you have what remains a split senate in terms of republicans. They are not certain the president will win and they are not sure they will put their name on a bill that is this large, going forward, given the fact that they are supposed to be cautious about spending. David we have been talking about pennsylvania today. Sense that to be a joe biden continues to have a lead. Was,uite as stubborn as it particularly in the swing states like michigan, wisconsin. What is your sense of where the race is right now . Jeannie i think republicans are nervous, the president s team are nervous. We have seen that in some Senate Candidates like ben sasse holler out the president. I see some concern there, but it is also too early given the number of unknowns in the race. Way too early to call this for joe biden. I think they are cognizant of that. Still feels there is a pathway forward in the pennsylvania. They still feel they can take that state. I think there is a reason to be very cautious about these polls showing these huge leads. I think biden wins nationally, but again, it comes down to the swing states. Trump can still pull this through when you have braces at five, 6 in some of these states. Last as you get into the stages of the race, momentum can count. Things can move more than you might expect. As we compare it to four years ago and what happened with Hillary Clinton, people leave out a little thing called comey. Jeannie [laughter] absolutely, there is so much that can still happen. Democrats are cognizant of that. Theaw an attempt to sway race with the release of the hunter biden materials. Doesnt seem to have resonated. But we still have time to go. A debate potentially on thursday. There is still time for an early november surprise that shakes this thing up. I think you have to be cognizant. ,iden has a lot going for him including his fundraising, which has been tremendous for the democrats. It is far outweighing the president. I am looking this weekend at the president crisscrossing the country. They are getting crowds as big as 2016. I think they feel if they can turn out a vote as big, they can make a race of it. David one big october surprise is if President Trump comes out on thursday night and is a different President Trump, which some of his aides are advising him to do. Jeannie if he focuses on the economy there was that gallup poll that came out that said over 50 of americans think they are better off economically today than four years ago despite the pandemic. If the president can focus on that and make the case that he could do even better getting us out of that, he has an argument to make to those still undecided moderate voters. David it is the economy, stupid. Thank you so much to jeanne zaino. She will be with us for coverage of that final debate thursday at 8 00 eastern time. Tomorrow, we speak with house Speaker Nancy Pelosi in an exclusive interview at 12 30 p. M. Eastern time. On radio, we will be talking about china. This is bloomberg. Mark im Mark Crumpton with bloomberg first word news. Saudi arabia have found today that opec and its partners will do whats necessary to balance the oil market. The countrys oil minister says nip negativel trends in the bud. Bloomberg saw a statement from the online meeting. The draft warned the oil market is in a precarious position with prevailing uncertainties and risks to the downside. President trump says people are tired of listening to Infectious Disease chief anthony bounty. He told his Campaign Staff today that there is a bomb every time faucher goes on tv, adding that if he fired dr. Fauci, it would be a bigger bomb. The president said that if he had listened to him, there would be as many as 800,000 deaths in the United States right now. Fromina, economic recovery the pandemic continued in the third quarter. Gdp rose 4. 9 from a year ago. That is less than expected but higher than secondquarter numbers