A lowerures point to open on lockdown news. Fears rise of a prolonged economic slowdown. And u. S. Equity futures trade higher. 24 hours to go. The president ial campaign enters a final stretch as donald trump and joe biden focused on the key swing states of pennsylvania. Biden leads his rival in a series of weekend holes. It is 6 00 a. M. In london and dublin. Ryanair. Good morning. We have an expectation for more losses. First half losses, record losses in the second half relative to the first half. Theres a couple of lines that are critically important. 1. 18 billion. There is no fullyear guidance going into 2021. As Michael Oleary and the rest are facing new lockdowns and the u. K. In terms of no leisure travel, it must be essential travel. This is the message from Boris Johnson. It could be extended. Ryanair expects record losses in the second half but theres one line here and we will put it to Michael Oleary himself. He joins us very shortly. Putting measures in place to owned. Ain majority e. U. Welcome back. Annmarie i missed you, manus. We had such a busy week last week. This monday morning, we are setting up to be one of the biggest events. We are going to see this risk event facing 2020. S p 500 futures, euro stoxx 50 futures to the upside. Worst week since march for s p stoxx 50. Ne for the with the 100, that has gone lower. As the u. K. Enters another lockdown. Across assets, the real action is in the oil price. What is going on in europe is going to weigh on demand significantly. Wti trading below 35 a barrel. These are numbers that are really going to start to be painful for the major oil producers. Eurodollar, 1. 16. We are seeing Euro Weakness against the u. S. Dollar. We are seeing a little bit of Dollar Strength across all of the major peers today and the 10year treasury yield holding onto 85 basis points on the yield. Stillsis points but holding onto that yield. Bears steepen. E this potential move heading to the election. The massive story in europe is yet again another country going into lockdown. Boris johnson announcing a onemonth lockdown for england, the latest leader to walk back from a no lockdown pledge but still needs to get the measures approved by lawmakers. Rosalind mathieson joins us now. He went for the nuclear option. He said this would be the nuclear deterrent. Will he get this new lockdown through parliament this week . We are expecting a vote on wednesday and in all likelihood, he will get it through because labor supports a lockdown although they will make the point that he could have done it earlier and therefore made it shorter. Criticalion is, what capital has he expended to get this done . Many tories oppose another lockdown. They say it will crucify the economy thats already on these and they were not really consulted enough about it. You might see some tories voting for this measure with gritted teeth but others abstaining entirely and that will be something that is key to watch when this vote happens. Overall, we are expecting it to get through. Manus great to have you with us. They are ratcheting restrictions across europe. Sometime, you are seeing pretty Strong Social pushback, arent we . We are seeing leaders really struggle in a number of ways. Three similar ways. One is they have to work with the regional authority. Leaders of cities are saying we are taking a different approach and we disagree with you. You are seeing strongly this Angela Merkel in germany really having to negotiate and navigate their way through so that is one thing. You are also seeing people just being fatigued. Italy was the first country in europe to go into lockdown in the early part of the year and they are in extended lockdown. People are saying we went through all that and yet the virus did not go away and in some cases, it is back worse than ever and even though you are trying to keep schools open so we can keep working, we are just sick of it. You are seeing a lot of social pressure, antilockdown protests grow in a number of parts of europe. Some Political Parties trying to seize on that. Generally, people will go along with it but there are potential political ramifications for certain leaders. So much. Ank you rosalind mathieson, our International Government executive editor on the lockdown in the u. K. The head of asset allocation, research at a company, good day to you. Go further. It could be extended. What does this do to the bank of england on thursday . Good morning, manus. Washink the bank of england pretty highly likely to engage in more stimulus, even before this new lockdown measure. So we may see more quantitative easing, some more targeted longterm financing for the commercial banks. The interest linked lending activity. I dont think we will see negative Interest Rates, which a lot of people are looking for. The question governor bailey and his colleagues at roundtables and conferences. The bank is still not confident they are feasible. Ruling them out. For sure. They have asked Financial Firms to report on their operational ability to accommodate them. That report and concludes in a week or two. We expect the bank to expand its Quantitative Easing Program first. Annmarie good morning, edward. Michael said if the data is not good, the lockdown could be extended. How are you preparing for that, more pain post december 2 . Edward that could be pretty nasty, so you know, we think, if we are working on the assumption its four weeks, we are already thinking the economy will contract a 10 to 12. 5 during that time so thats already hugely significant. If it was just four weeks, we would not be looking at the u. K. Economy heading back above the precovid high watermark for 2023. Six weeks, eight weeks, matt gets materially worse. Thats likely to be permanent scarring. All that said, as investors, we dont think that alters the outlook for u. K. Assets relative to the rest of the world because we were already working on the assumption that the u. K. Would have one of the worst economic outcomes of the 42 economies that we keep tabs on. It is quite a shocking moniker to have. News that theres progress. We understand there is some brexits in regards to and im not being facetious. Any light in the brexit negotiation is to be welcomed. But from a currency perspective, i have to say maybe the more important thing is they need a trade deal with the United States of america as well. Cappedg is fundamentally in terms of any explosion to the upside on a brexit deal or is that being too negative . Edward i think its reasonably fair. We think there is some upside. The pound, since shortly after the referendum, has been position for really worst case scenario. Now, if we do get a deal, a ,reetrade agreement in goods thats still going to be a pretty hard brexit. Only option is a hard brexit. Nontariff barriers to trade, which will account for the most amount of economic pay, going up either way. No ordeal. If we do have a deal, we will start to see a little bit of upside because the pound, many of our longterm fundamental powerorks, purchasing parity, or favorite Behavioral Exchange rate, relative prices, relative savings, we could start to see on a three year to five onr beat maybe 10 upside the event of a deal. Annmarie edward smith stays with us. We will speak to the ceo of siemens, and that exclusive interview comes after the medical Technology Company reported earnings that fell short of estimates. This is bloomberg. G. Annmarie good morning from the city. This is daybreak europe. I am Annmarie Hordern with manus cranny. Siemens reported earnings for the Fourth Quarter that missed average estimates. The company sees comparable sales growth in 2021. Joining us now for exclusive interview is the ceo of siemens healthineers. My first question to you is how big are the caveats for this new Earnings Report given the fact that we have germany, france, and the u. K. Going in reverse with fresh lockdown restrictions . Bernd we have shown in the last year where we were able to keep revenue flat, that we have things under control when it comes to servicing our customers and keeping our supply chain intact. We also saw customers do a very good job and have learned how to deal with the pandemic so we are confident that Health Care Activity will remain intact. There a good morning to you. It is manus in dubai. You have launched a new covid test to get results in minutes. This is the key to the reopening of the world. Where are you on supply . Are you going to sign one government, multiple governments . How quickly can you deliver them . All, i just of underwent the test myself. Went through the experience. 15 minutes. Its we are merely its really amazing. A negative result in my case. We will start shipping. We started shipping. We will start shipping from this november on, starting with 30 million. We will rapidly ramp up. We have contacted multiple we are confident that we will be able to meet the demand. Who are you sending these tests to . Bernd this is a mix between private customers for federal , so its wide. Ny annmarie what about the United States, the United Kingdom . Outside of germany . Are you shipping to other countries . As manus said, this could be key to opening up economies. Bernd thats why we deliver to countries outside germany. We will be starting soon. We have the emergency use approval from the fda. Ok, well, we certainly look forward to that. Lets get to the deal situation. The guidance he gave to the market today is youre going to see 2021 sales up by 5 . This is not taking into consideration the acquisition of thats a 16 billion deal, no mean deal. What is the status of the Regulatory Approval process on the deal, and your confidence level. Is that we already approvalsimportant done by some of the authorities with the highlight being the approval in the United States. We have seen shareholder approval from the shareholders with an impressive board of confidence. Track and ig is on am very confident that we will have a transaction in the first half of next year. Annmarie what Financing Options are you considering . Bernd we are in a very good position because we have very announcementr the of the combination, we did a Capital Increase and thats giving us all options to look at that moving forward. We have excluded further measures for six months. We are in a very good position. Off with theround forwardlooking perspective on demand. Asia is recovering. China, good data from them this morning. Relative to the rest of the world. Are you seeing that come through in terms of demand for x way tubes . Xray well, a lot of our business is recurring revenue. Its more than half of our business, from Service Contracts and major businesses. But of course, we see asia getting more more important. Europe is very resilient. We will see the u. S. Coming back. We will get the logic of our customers more than in other countries. As a sustainable driver of growth and stabilization. Thank you so much. That is the ceo of siemens healthineers. Thank you for joining us. Laura wright is at london hq with your first word news. Laura brexit negotiations are close to breaking the impasse over the biggest obstacles to a deal. Thegreement may be ready by november deadline. Sources tell bloomberg the two sides are nearing a compromise on what access boats will have two waters. An official gauge of activity in the Manufacturing Industry fell slightly in october. It was still in expansionary territory. Consumer spending during the golden week holiday helped lift services, indicating study momentum in chinas economic recovery. The worlds strongest storm this year has killed at least 10 people in the philippines. Searchandrescue operations are underway after the typhoon hit the nation yesterday. The province where it first made landfall is unreachable and teams are working to establish communications. As many as 390,000 have been forced to leave their homes. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Manus. Annmarie laura wright in london. Thank you for that roundup. Coming up, we are in the home stretch. One day to go until the u. S. Election. A number of polls put joe biden ahead of President Trump. The latest from the campaign trail, next. This is bloomberg. Pres. Trump and i think its terrible where we cannot know the results of an election the night of the election in a modernday age of computers. I think its a terrible thing and i happen to think it was a terrible decision for our country made by the supreme court. It was a terrible decision for our country and i think its a very dangerous decision. The president s allies have been talking quite a bit about may be declaring victory on tuesday night even if the votes are not final. Seems to be up ahead. What is your response . My response is that the president is not going to steal this election. Annmarie President Trump and joe biden on Election Night results. According to a series of poles, biden is ahead of president from nationally and in some key states as well. Had the moment, more than 93 Million People have already voted even though election day is technically tomorrow. Edward smith is joining us. I was looking at your research, 14 pages on the policies and the outcome. Walk us through what your base case is for when we get a decision, whether or not its november 4, if it takes a few days to count some of those ballots . Edward sure. I think whenever you are thinking about the general election, you have got to establish a baseline. To one way to do this is study decades of Financial Data and analyze the signals. It tends to be just noise. Another way to do that this year is to think about what has been driving markets over the last six months. To our mind, its been hopes of the time well of affected stimulus, and the monetary policy. Does the outcome of the election alter those three factors . We dont think so. Five decades of data means we cannot repeat the possibility that it is different this time, and biden has a very redistribution agenda. The corporate share of gdp may go down and that will have important impacts on certain actors. But our baseline is that it may not matter as much as people think. We think biden is likely to win are always happy with the mantra, prepare dont predict. Manus prepare dont predict. You say that biden taking the white house would affect congress it would actually be the best outcome. Briefly, how . Those three to drivers, they are not altered. Thatf the drivers has been reduction in the u. S. China trade tensions. Death. S no china he will china dove. He will remain hawkish. He will penalize china using the rulebased way. So its about the reduction in trade policy uncertainty, and that will take you lately good for nonus assets. Ok, lets see how that plays out. Trade relations with china and the rest of the world all in play. Bernd montag, head of asset edward smith, head of asset allocations. We will spend time with the ceo of ryanair, Michael Oleary. Fromis a real warning shot michael as we go into this lockdown. Not we, you. You are going into that lockdown at home of the u. K. , and all nonessential travel has been banned. Than looking to go longer december 2. Annmarie nuts the worry. Our guest is saying how much work the u. K. Contraction could be. Michael oleary talking about the winter. Its going to look very grim considering the lockdowns we are seeing across europe, manus. Inus we will have michael just a few moments. The projection on the numbers, a record loss for the second half versus the first half so we want to know a little bit more. Revenues plummeted. Those questions with the ceo, Michael Oleary, on daybreak europe. This is bloomberg. You can go your own way go your own way your wireless. Your rules. Only Xfinity Mobile lets you choose shared data, unlimited or a mix of each. And switch anytime so you only pay for the data you need. Switch and save hundreds on your wireless bill. Plus, get 300 off when you buy the Samsung Galaxy note20 ultra 5g. Learn more at your local xfinity store today. More voluminous hair instantly. All it takes is just one session at hairclub. Introducing xtrands. Xtrands adds hundreds or even thousands of hair strands to your existing hair at the root. Theyre personalized to match your own natural hair color and texture, so theyll blend right in for a natural, effortless look. Call in the next five minutes and when you buy 500 strands, you get 500 strands free. Call right now. upbeat music annmarie good morning. I am Annmarie Hordern with and cranny in dubai. This is bloomberg daybreak europe. England will enter a monthlong lockdown weekends germanys partial shutdown begins today. Futures and sterling decline. Ryanair expects higher losses in the second half. We last Michael Oleary about the impact of the pandemic. One day to go until the u. S. President ial election. Both candidates will campaign in pennsylvania as joe biden leads trump in a series of fresh poles. You. , very good morning to 6 30 in the city of london and we are on the brink of a law down 2. 0 in england. Lockdown 2. 0 in england. That could last longer. Boris johnson, a uturn. What we saw in germany as well as in france. Yes, the economic outlooks for those countries, france, you will see an Economic Contraction of more than 15 . Lets take the qnt of countries. France, germany, the u. K. , and belgium. Fear and loathing. It is demonstrable in the oil market. This is policy uncertainty around the world. We are nowhere near the peak we were in covid. We are nowhere near the peak we were of a brexit style event but is that the calm before the policy storm . Ground zero for risk is oil. We are seeing the oil market come down. We are seeing a fivemonth trade in the oil market. Its the witches brew. Libya is nearing one Million Barrels a day of production. Oil implosionthe takes you to the commodity currencies. Yes, its not just an event filled week but are pretty impressive week in terms of the central bank. Points . Y go to 10 basis lets have a look at the rest of the currencies on the board that we have for you. Australian dollar. There we go. You have it down by. 3 . There you go. Rinse and refresh. Good to have you back. Pity the technology does not complement us both. Annmarie its fantastic to be back with you. Any other day, our top story would be 24 hours before americans go to the polls. But its not. Given the state of covid taking center stage in europe, Boris Johnson announcing a onemonth lockdown. The latest european leader to walk back from a no lockdown pledge. For more, chad thomas joins us. Is there a chance that even with this lockdown, that more will be needed . Boris johnson said this was the nuclear option. Morning. I think you are spot on with leaders at this point announcing fourweek lockdowns. Everyone is knocking down for the month of november. The u. K. , france, germany, belgium, austria. And if you listen very closely to what these leaders are saying, they are saying we are going to do this for a month, but they are also saying, in france and germany, for example, we are going to assess where we are at from now so if the numbers do not come down, i think we can expect that this is going to be extended or we may even see a more severe lockdown put in place. Remember when we look to what happened in the spring, everybody started by saying we are going to lockdown for two weeks, for a month, and those measures were extended in most countries to upwards of two months because they needed to get the numbers down. You need a number of weeks in order to do that. Manus chad, good to have you with us. We are seeing further restrictions across europe. How are leaders the human with those . We are seeing a much more physical pushback on the streets. I think what we are seeing andis lockdown fatigue thats why a lot of the measures are being announced. Example, schools are still open today, even though the lockdown has started here, and a lot of stores are still open so they are trying to thread the needle between closing down those places, restaurants, bars, and cultural venues where lots of people gather, trying to close those places down in order to bring down the numbers while leaving open what they can. There is certainly a fatigue among the populace. When you look at Public Opinion polls, there is still a majority who do support these measures because people are concerned about the disease has well but its not like the first time thats universally supported so leaders need to thread the needle here. Ok. S western europe editor chad thomas, thank you for joining us this morning. Ryanair is bracing for deepening losses this winter as a new coronavirus lockdowns the attempts to bring back flights. Joining us whos the ceo of ryanair. Rate to have you with us this morning. Nonessential travel is banned in the u. K. For month and it might extend longer. A body blow for everybody. What is it going to mean for capacity and margins at ryanair in the next quarter, nearterm . What are the impacts . We have reduced our schedule to just 40 . We are guiding for 38 million passengers for the full year to the end of march. We think they have to work that number back slightly. Schedule forg the the next month or two. It was already terrible. We will have that much effect on it. The risk is to the downside. Continuation for the last 12 months. The who said lockdowns are a failure and should be avoided whenever possible and they are only useful if use the time in the lockdown to get your system in place, your testing system in place. The u. K. Government and irish government, locking us down again. The month of november would be the best month. Annmarie good morning. How much of your fleet you see being active in the winter . You will have to retire some of your plans given the fact that capacity is going to be so low . Michael good morning. Moment,happening at the we are keeping most of the aircraft flying, but they are doing one or two flights a day each. Loss at 200 a small million, considerably better than our competitors. Nevertheless, its painful. I think what we are waiting for three or hoping for a vaccine during christmas. A are hoping there will be vaccine available by q1, q2 of 2021. There will be a strong snapback or pickup in demand for intrae. U. Air travel. On the very first day, our bookings went to 28,000. There is enormous pentup demand. We intend to fill that by responding very quickly. Or a vaccine becomes available. Time withspent some siemens healthineers, 15 minute rapid test. Is that not where we should be seeing our government spend more of their time and money so that we can move around . Is not not ground zero to get us off the ground . Is that not ground zero to get us off the ground . Michael im not sure how reliable those tests will be, but absolutely. The government should have used the first knocked down to acidly boost their trade capacity. Like all of johnsons promises, they have been shambled. The u. K. Should be testing 5 Million People per week. Ireland, we should be testing millions of people week. You chased down the virus. Thats the way you get on top of it. Not yoyoing in and out of lockdown. This is Political Risk management on a grand scale and the widescaleg is testing where you test typically 10 to 20 of the population each week. Thats the way to get rid of these lockdowns. Optimistic onare a vaccine the side of christmas. In terms of the science, that is ful. Optimistic and hope this latest lockdown could be extended if we do not see better data. What does that do for you if this bleeds into december . I would not believe anything he says. His record has shown he is not to be trusted. I would much more likely take my lead from Anthony Fauci in the United States. It does seem there is a reasonable consensus. Possibly two or three vaccines will be licensed by christmas. Much howe is how many doses can you have commercially available next year . You see lots of people preproducing vaccines so i would be reasonably hopeful that by the end of the Second Quarter next year, you have sufficient quantities of an effective vaccine that will take care of the highrisk groups. Yearve already seen this that there was a falling case numbers that it will become increasingly difficult for goldman to lockdown their economy. The first lockdown did not work. We are into the second lockdown. Vesting to do is much greater testing, on a scale no european government is taking. It would be cheaper to spend a couple of billions testing 10 billion people a week in the u. K. Than it is to keep yoyoing in and out of lockdown. Can we go back to the numbers and the guidance again . Theres a couple things i want to get a feel from you on. First of all, liquidity. First have losses, 197 million. How much worse is that going to be . Whats a reasonable guide to the market . In the nonliquidity, are you going to do anything smart i dont run an airline talk to us about the Balance Sheet of ryanair at the moment. Liquidity is essentially strong. We raised 400 million from shareholders, led by management putting in their own cash. About 4. 5 billion in cash at the end of the year. Debtve 1. 5 billion of repayment next year. They were repaid in march the a 2014 bond. We are very strongly cash liquid at the moment and we intend to continue to be that way. Its impossible to give any figures for the remainder of this year internet youre so into next year. The strongest task low is that january to april. And how much of that we will see in the first coat of next year, we dont know. If there is a vaccine available by christmas, i think the cash flow will be very strong and we will be in good shape. If it looks like there could be a third lockdown, the position will become more difficult. What we have tried to avoid is of pricing at a time with higher Interest Rates is not the way forward. Means is they will have much higher costs going forward. Rising, base is particularly with delivery of these new and much cheaper boeing aircraft. Manus michael, theres a reason why you have been there a long time. You take a bit of a risk. Took a huge risk. He doubled down. The same i could say about myself, michael. She is just getting started. Shes looking forward to another couple of years with you, but on a more serious note, you strike me this morning with slightly more positive rhetoric. What is the double down oleary in 2021 . For oleary in 2021 . Michael i think the opportunity here is to reprice the aircraft order for the next five or six years. We are in advanced discussions with boeing on orders, order pricing, compensation. And theres been an enormous opportunity. I think we worked in the last kospi. Onths refined the going forward, we will have lower productive airport costs. Bigger growth going forward. We will be able to pass on the savings to our customers in the form of lower airfare area i have no doubt in my mind not customers all over europe, the first thing they want to do is go travel again across europe. It will rebound very strongly. They are sharing gains in that recovery. Annmarie Michael Oleary, thank you so much for joining manus and i this morning. Bullish that we are going to see people flock back to airlines once the lockdowns are lifted. Coming up, the home stretch the United States. One day to go until the u. S. Election. We dont want to miss our discussion of the polls, next. This is bloomberg. Pres. Trump anything is terrible where we cannot know the results of an election the night of the election in a modernday age of computers. I think its a terrible thing and i happen to think it was a terrible decision for our country made by the supreme court. It was a terrible decision for our country and i think its a very dangerous incision. The president s allies have been talking quite a bit about declaring victory on tuesday night. Even if the votes are not signed. What is your response . Mr. Biden our response is that the president s are going to steal this election. President trump and joe biden on Election Night results, being asked about the axios article. Ofen is in the league, head President Trump nationally and in battleground states although some races remain itching the close. 93 Million People have already voted, 65. Derek wallbank joining us now. Lets start with the polls. Early voting. What are they telling us and is there still a chance that donald trump could catch up . Biden is still in the lead. All ofve looked through the polls and i see a. There is a way he could sort of run the rapids here and get through. Its a tight pass. Theres not much room for error. It requires donald trump to win every state as well as at least one state that leaning towards joe biden. What that means is if you look over the map, the big ten states in the midwest are going to be the place where a lot of this is decided. Pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin, ohio, and acetic, iowa. The sunbelt could get there first and those are states that report a lot quicker, that close a little earlier in the night. The biggest one is florida but you are also looking at georgia and North Carolina so thats how to look at this as this is coming in the night. Trump needs to do really well in that process in order to be able to go into that sort of next tier of states and try and pick off one of the big wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania. To have uss. The risk is that the president going back to the arsenal, the president told them he will declare victory on tuesday night if it looks like he is ahead so this is trying to win, i versus, win the race those ballots which will be counted afterward. What does this axios article say to you, that he would declare victory on tuesday night if it looks like he is ahead, according to three sources with his private comments . Derek the axios article is interesting because the white house is trying to distance from it and say that is not right for a couple of reasons but i think the key that trump is going to try and do here, if they are right, its to project confidence if the results on Election Night or to look good. What does that mean in practice . That means theres a lot of places in key swing states, where the inperson vote will be counted before the absentee and early votes. So since we expect the absentee and early votes to sort of skew a little toward biden and the inperson vote to skew toward trump, that means that in some of those states, it might look a little better for trump on the night then it will the next morning. The next evening or the day after that. So what the president is going to try and do is he is within range of something according to axios, to basically try and project that confidence and keep the narrative he has allies. Manus indeed. Come out early with a swinging victory speech and what impact that will have on markets. , stoic until the end, our editor in singapore attracting the u. S. Election tracking the u. S. Election. Investors are gearing up for more. We discuss a noisy week for markets. This is bloomberg. Manus its a break europe. Annmarie hordern in london hq. These markets could be volatile. Dani burger has the numbers. A day away story . From the u. S. Election and sources i have been speaking to willing toey are not put money into their machines. They are finding a more comfortable and less expense of to just cut and run and sit and wait and see what happens this week. You can tell hedges are really expensive so we have not seen gold and bonds offer the protection that perhaps you would heading into a big risk event. Sold off. Ctually the yen has moved a little bit but investors say thats more like a flow coming out of japan and not really reflective of positioning ahead of the election so the overall read is its going to be noisy today and tomorrow. Annmarie dani burger, thank you. Last week was certainly noisy. I know we were not together but the markets, what a bloodbath it was. Sincerst from the s p 500 march. The worst from the stoxx 600 since june. Investors are waiting. Is not just the election. Its the fed, boes, and then payrolls on friday. , we have fearloom and loathing in the market. 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Now its your turn to lose weight, look great, and be healthy. Get off the floor and get on the aerotrainer. Go to aerotrainer. Com, thats aerotrainer. Com. Good morning. Welcome to Bloomberg Markets european open. I am anna edwards in london. The cash trading is less than an hour away. England prepares for a monthlong lockdown to combat coronavirus as a partial shutdown begins in germany today. Italy might be next to reimpose tougher restrictions. Equity futures are in the green after last weeks decline. Oil slides for a five month low