Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20240711

Thrilled you are with us on Bloomberg Radio and bloomberg television. It was not the surprise of moderna on the ratios. It was the surprise of how well they are able to get the vaccine out. That lifts markets up. Is a correlated left pop it is a correlated lift. Jonathan maybe the message is dont bet against human ingenuity. Keep the faith and the science. Last week it was pfizer. This morning, moderna. The efficacy rate, 94. 5 . It is where the rally is that gets peoples attention. It is not the big cap tech. The story that rolls up his smallcap america, and the International Value story as well. That is the great debate of this very moment, the shortterm problems, the issues across america, and the longterm hope that we get that texting. Tom lisa, what do we see we get in the vaccine. Tom lisa, what do we see in fixed income . We are not at the full faith and credit of november 9, but what do we see in ig and highyield, as we see yield up, price down . Lisa yield up with full facing credit Government Bond yields, yield down when you look at credit default swaps. You look at the implied measures based on derivatives this morning, basically credit risk is on. People are flooding into highyield that. You saw yields reached record lows despite the fact we are in a pandemic. The idea that Smaller Companies that need a bridge, that need a lifeline will have that much easier of a time getting one getting this faith in the vaccine. Tom we will talk through the morning on bloomberg rrosillance and mr. Fe other properties of this juxtaposition, and any number of headlines. I was going to have you over for thanksgiving, jon. You cant come, as we are going 25 down to 10. Jonathan hang on, who are the 10 . Why arent tiein the 10 . That billrs. Keene, mrs. Keene,een coming, has three afterthought has a few. Mates arevet bills ahead of me . [laughter] we are not even going to put into like each other for the rest of the program. Tom by that time, we will be down to five seats at the table. Drew, it is amazing the juxtaposition right now. What is your timeline for vaccine to the rescue . This, thetimeline on good news this morning aside, which is really good news, is this is still going to be a little while. They have talked about having a couple of tens of millions of doses available in 2020, and much more than that in 2021, but the reality is early on, assuming that these are allowed for use by the fda under emergency authorization, they are going to go primarily to Frontline Health care workers, ultravulnerable people, and other folks and frontline positions. For the general public, i am a relatively healthy soontobe 40yearold, probably waiting until sometime next year for access to these. Emphasize whatot an important step, and optimistic step, this does appear to be. Lisa lets talk about the timeline for emergency authorization and how we will start to see change as Emergency Responders and other officials start to get inoculated. Authorizations, there is just a rewind there is, just to rewind a little bit here, a normal authorization would typically look at things like having six months of safety data and the review would likely take a little bit longer, probably at least a couple of months. Under emergency situations, which i dont think anybody would argue that this pandemic isnt, they can lower their threshold slightly in terms of the data they want to see and in terms of something being safe and effective, which is how we see a lot of therapies test, and soon vaccines come out onto the market. In this case, what they have been looking for is a degree of two havewhich these easily passed, and than they want to see two months of safety data. We expect that the companies are going to apply for those emergency authorizations sometime in the next couple of weeks, and then they will also keep sending fda safety and efficacy data as they get it, so we could see a vaccine being used may be some time in december. I think for most of us, it is not going to change things that much. If you are a doctor or Frontline Health care worker, or someone in a nursing home or otherwise super vulnerable, it may change things a lot. Lets talknathan about adherence to social distancing and things. Where are we on therapeutics . That is what we need to lean heavily on. Drew i think it is worth stating that a vaccine does no one any good if it is in a lab or a freezer somewhere. Just because there is vaccine data out there doesnt help anyone except for the folks in the trial who got it. It does not change the situation on the ground. It does not make the disease any less dangerous. People think they can all of a sudden go into all the things they used to do and that the world has changed. It has not. That is why therapeutics are particularly important. We have seen two things happening. One, we have gotten a number of therapeutics, some of these antibody drugs from regeneron, remdesivir, and the other thing worth noting is that medical care for this disease has gotten better. When this thing hit new york in march and april, people had not treated this disease before. We did not know what we were dealing with. We were learning on the fly how to treat people with this disease. People from around the country flew into help new york, to their great credit. They gained a lot of experience with how to treat this disease, and the medical staff dispersed those things all over the world your odds of surviving this disease as an individual are much better. I will counter that by saying this disease is also spreading far more rapidly in parts of the country that have not seen it, and that may not have the kind of Health Care Resources of the places that got hit earlier, so it remains a very dangerous, and still has the ability to swamp health care systems. We are seeing new york situations in place like texas, with freezer trucks being used as morgues outside hospitals. That is some very scary stuff. Tom we will see how the east coast does here with deaths and hospitalizations rising, up a little bit. Right now, as we talk to lisa amowicz of the dynamic of w of two bond markets, noelle corum joins us of invesco. You wonder if we get jostled within fixed income, what happens to the price action of these two worlds. What happens to credit if we get a hiccup . Noelle right. And high yield, we are looking at all in record lows for yields, so there is not a lot of space right now for those hiccups you are talking about. We do think that it makes sense to diversify credit risk going into year end. It is aboutaying selling here, but it does make sense to diversify risk given the potential for some of those hiccups. Jonathan we can talk about how you would diversify and just a moment. Its talk about what a hiccup would actually be. Can you tell me what i hiccup would be that would lead to material spread widening in u. S. Markets . Noelle we are kind of looking at this in two major risks. We have the risks of covid cases rising, hospitalizations rising. We dont see it peeking out. Yes, the vaccine news is good today, but at the end of the day, we are still facing a pandemic, and it is not over. And then also, we have the fiscal stimulus that we were two weeks ago talking about 4 trillion, and now it is going to be much smaller. So if we dont actually get that money when the American People need it, that could also potentially weigh on growth, and ultimately on the credit market. Jonathan what youre saying is different to what many are saying. Youre saying theres limits to what we are tolerating. That is not what we have heard over the last week or so from market participants. We have been told that we would just focus on the back half of 21 he won and a vaccine of 2021 and the hope of a vaccine. If one million covid infections and reaching Hospital Capacity in many areas across america right now isnt enough to lead to material spread widening, what on earth is . Really, ifthink that we dont see the fiscal stimulus package comes through in a meaningful way, and a timely manner, that would be enough to create some volatility. Also, volatility around the back and forth of negative covid headlines versus positive ones, and while the vaccine headline one, is a positive tomorrow, when we get the negative covid news, it could not be. Totally are not unloading our risk, we do think it does make sense here to be a little bit cautious because this war is not over, and we still have a fiscal stimulus package that states need, consumers need, Small Businesses need, and ultimately that has to get delivered. Lisa there is an important distinction here between volatility in headlines and volatility in beta sentiment, the concern about Companies Going bankrupt, being unable to finance themselves going forward. Which is the risk you are concerned about with your caution . Thinkingor us, we are more of a big picture. While there is a concern that companies are going bankrupt and are likely to be some defaults, we are not looking at the numbers that we were in march, default was about 20 for 2020. But that is largely dependent on the fiscal stimulus package getting delivered. Jonathan great to catch up. I appreciate your insight on this market. A rare interview about when someone a rare interview where someone is concerned about what happens in the near term. I joke a little bit. The hope this morning fueled by the headline out of moderna that we have 94. 5 efficacy on the vaccine into filament. The russell advances. The small caps are the winning trade over the last week. The nasdaq is the losing trade over the last week. Zoom down by about 5 in early trading. United airlines, which you mentioned earlier, up by a little more than 10 in early trading. It gives you an idea of the shut down versus reopening story that is bleeding through this market. Tom it all comes down to the aggregate demand, and it has rolled over. I believe lisa mentioned fiveyear fiveyear forwards below. In the united kingdom, there is a deflationary tendency. Europe is maybe flat as well, and then in the u. S. , it is indeterminate. Right now, disinflation is in order. Jonathan can we unlock some of that reflationary cyclical tilt with the hope of vaccine as we work our way through some difficult months in the United States of america . That is the trade being put on increasingly over the last week. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Stanleyp next, stephen of amherst pierpont, their chief economist. From london and new york this morning, good morning to you all. This is bloomberg. Ritika with the first word news, im ritika gupta. There is word that another vaccine has been found to be highly effective at preventing the coronavirus. This time it is moderna out with details of a late stage trial. The drugmaker says its drug has 95 per the drugmaker says its drug has 94. 5 accuracy. The report comes a week after a similar vaccine developed by pfizer and biontech was found to be more than 90 effective. The chairman of the securities and exchange down. Jay clayton will leave at the end of the year. He is a former corporate deal law your who has led the sec since 2017. His term is set to expire in june. President elect joe bidens top coronavirus advisor says National Lockdown is not on the agenda. One of them says the preferred that we is a dial turn up and turn down depending on severity. U. S. Case records have hit records of the past two weeks. President trump could potentially tie the hands of joe biden it comes to china. The president plans several new hardline moves against beijing in the remaining weeks of his term. The National Security council says future president s will find it politically suicidal to reverse what it calls president trumps historic actions. In sports, Dustin Johnson made history winning his first masters tournament. The worlds topranked golfer shot a record 20 under par to win by five shots. It was the largest margin of victory at the masters in 23 years. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Pres. Trump according to some estimates, and National Lockdown cost 50 billion a day and hundreds of thousands of jobs every single day. Ideally we wont go to a lockdown. I will not go. This administration will not be going to a lockdown. Hopefully whatever happens in the future, who knows, i guess time will tell, but i can tell you this administration will not go to a lockdown. Hopefully they whatever that administer ration my d, that was about as close as we got to recognizing the future Biden Administration. There was a tweet, then there was a retreat, then there was the war of words shortly thereafter. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. This morning, it is a repeat of last week. Nasdaq negative, russell small caps to the moon. S p 500 futures up 37. We add 1 to the record highs of the close from last friday. In the bond market, the selloff fades. Yields are up to 0. 9160 . Last wednesday, highend of the range, 97 basis points. Right now, we are five or six basis points south of that. We are not getting that big move treasury yields. 94. 5pointed out that percent efficacy rate for moderna gives equities a boost, treasuries, no big moves this morning. Tom it is after pfizer, and we saw a huge move at pfizer. I am going to make clear that what this is about is deeply discounted sectors, deeply discounted categories, and they have bounced off that discount, but nowhere near their means of february 14 and before. Look at energy, banks and the others. Continue to monitor that. Look at what matters in the midmorning, and that is the open with jon ferro at 9 00 a. M. Right now, emily wilkins, bloomberg government. We heard the president talk about the transition or the nontransition. Really simply, what will you listen for today in your washington . Things is of the big that biden and harris are set to address the nation on their economic plan. It will be a little interesting to hear what he decides to speak about because he doesnt yet know whether democrats will have control of the senate, and that is going to impact exactly how much biden can actually get done of his economic plan. Well, theyve got to get something done. Comment overals incredible. Were what is your resolution through the week so this week doesnt become the second week of january . The things we will be looking for is we have definitely seen what happens with the Trump Campaign. We saw him admit the Biden Campaign won, then say the election was raked tom but is he all alone by himself . Emily there are a number of people still within the president s inner circle. It is a lot of the same people, jared kushner, rudy giuliani. A lot of it is going to come down to seeing not just what the president says, but also what the lawsuits say. We saw the lawsuits change in pennsylvania to cut out a major allocation that Trump Campaign people were not able to watch the count. That is a sign of how the campaign is thanking about things and how they see their legal challenges. Jonathan we have been playing this silly game of trying to interpret the president s comments over the past four years, and we do it again looking for a concession that isnt there. Can you tell me when these states will start to certify the results . Emily the official date is december 14. That is when states say this is at, these are our electors, and like everything in. Another thing is december 8, when anyone who wants to contest the results for a particular state has to get everything in by. Those are the key dates to watch. Obviously we will be seeing what happens in the next few weeks if the Trump Campaign does admit that the Biden Administration is coming up next. We are also going to keep a look at the Government Entity that has to officially push the button and give the green light, and say yes, this transition is happening, and that will make things a little bit easier for the biden team to get settled and get adjusted. Scarlet lisa the market has voted, and the boat is that ayden will be the next president , despite the fact that some could say there is still somewhat of a contested election, or that it has not been called. Now the focus is very much on the vaccines that will be coming out as early as later this year potentially. Then there is the question of fiscal support. Is that basically dead in the water based on your conversations with Current Congress members in washington . Think anyone on capitol hill would necessarily classify fiscal support as being dead in the water. On friday, we heard democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi say that it was a top agenda item, that it is all hands on deck. We have seen similar things from Republican Senate majority leader mitch mcconnell. The question is, can actually come to an agreement . We might see that this week because the house is back in session, the senate is back in session, and they are ready to legislate again. Tom what are they going to legislate . I am fascinated by that statement. They are going to legislate what . The answer is we dont know until georgia, right . Emily well, the government does need to be funded past the december deadline. We are headed towards a Government Shutdown right now. Theyre going to have to have something on that. I think there is a moment, neither side to potential he get something done with coronavirus. Does a question as to whether or not that will be done, but it is fair to say that that is something that lawmakers are at least going to be trying to work on in the next few months. Jonathan do you since there is a concern in washington about governors now introducing more restrictive policies . In the conversations you are having on capitol hill, do you sense that concern . Emily to a certain extent, throughout this pandemic, the federal government as sort of looked to the states and state governors to be the ones that mandate for their own citizens what they will do. I dont think this is a big change in terms of what we will seen. I think this is a bit of a repeat from what we saw in the spring, when governors started talking about a lockdown. I dont thing this necessarily changes anyones prerogative on capitol hill of whether or not stimulus does need to get done. I thing it is definitely something people are watching to see how governors respond, and to what degree they view the threat. Jonathan great to catch up, as always. That is the story, isnt it . If the governors start to introduce more restrictive look evenlicies, if we remotely likely looks like through march, april and may, shortly that forces the issue in washington, whereby theyve got no choice whatsoever but to push through a bill. Tom the only thing that forces the issue to me is a jobs number, Unemployment Rate turnaround, and the sheer hardship of income substitution going away. What is interesting to me, it is radically different than what we are experiencing in the united kingdom. To me, it is the polarity right now across the atlantic. Jonathan the stayathome restrictions this time our advisories, not orders, and that is the shift. How on earth do you self do you tell someone that got to stay at home and not work if you dont replace their income . I dont see how you can do that, and i dont see how anyone else will follow that. The mass valliere has this morning. We are going from trillions of oneish,of aid down to and most say that really doesnt move the needle. Jonathan the news this morning moves the needle. Moderna stock up by 12. 4 in premarket trading. Lisa, not sure why a call you laura. [laughter] market, we advance on moderna by about 12 point 4 . The story of this rotation, can you get that durable move if the bond market doesnt participate . As you said, right now this morning, the bond market is not playing ball in a big way. Lisa how much is this a bet that there will be reduced fiscal support as a result of the optimas and around vaccines, and how much is this simply an unwind of other positions, and the bond market has already been through that . Jonathan laura, lisa. What am i doing . With what happened laura over the weekend . Tom lisa is doing chinese takeout for thanksgiving. Lisa yes i am. Tom but you and i, a new thing, thanks giving zoom. We can do it. Jonathan i would love to. I think this would be the fourth or fifth thanksgiving we have done together, but this one would be over zoom. A couple of years back, it was laura, you and me. Lisa i hear laura is nice. Great. [laughter] businesses today are looking to tomorrow. Adapting. Innovating. Setting the course. But new ways of working demand a new type of network. One thats more than just fast. You need flexibility to work from anywhere. And manage from everywhere. Advanced technology. With serious security. And reliable coverage, nationwide. Forwardthinking enterprises, deserve forwardthinking solutions. And thats what we deliver. So bounce forward, with comcast business. Adapting. Innovating. Lsetting the course. But new ways of working demand a new type of network. One thats more than just fast. You need flexibility to work from anywhere. And manage from everywhere. Advanced technology. With serious security. And reliable coverage, nationwide. Forwardthinking enterprises, deserve forwardthinking solutions. And thats what we deliver. So bounce forward, with comcast business. Jonathan from london and new york, this is bloomberg surveillance. Good news on the vaccine front, last week pfizer, good news for moderna. The nasdaq up 2. 21 , down one third percent. That rotation is back on. In the bond market, you want to see the supported move into financials. You need the bond market to play ball. Right now it is not. Curve steepening, yields are higher, up two basis points. Last wednesday we topped out at 97. Another thing that is not playing ball, foreign exchange. This has been the story. If you have the improve encyclical appetite, you have that move into international equities, what is going on with euro . 1 . I keep coming back to it. I keep beating this drum. This is the trait that does not fit neatly with the story we have been told. Tom pacific rim Currency Pairs out to new highs about those two hours ago and they have ebbed away. Dow futures up 500. 1. 7 move. This is important. Lets recalibrate the american economy. He is awardwinning Stephen Stanley with amherst pierpont. Does wonderful work with the conventional function what matters right now within that equation . Stephen consumption has been the star of the show, and that is what we are looking at. The consumer has set up much better than most people expected through the pandemic and now with renewed restrictions and cuts in mobility, there is obviously some concern about whether the consumer then continue to get back toward normal over the next couple of months. Tom give us the calendar of the need for income substitution. 1231 disappear for many. How urgent for you is income replacement . Stephen we are in a different place than we were in the spring. In the spring we put more than 600 a month Unemployment Benefits as well as a round of rebate checks for everyone, and at this point whatever income replacement we do probably needs to be more targeted. I think the idea of continuing the Unemployment Benefits, continuing them beyond midyear, or the end of the year, but also may be putting forward another bonus, it does not necessarily have to be 600, but perhaps 300 or 400, makes a lot of sense because theyre still plenty of people who cannot work because of the pandemic. I am not sure we need acrosstheboard help the way we got in the spring. To me that is the key distinction. Lisa this is an important nuance because right now we are looking at American Consumer finances and the best shape in decades. People took the checks and pay down the debt and do not have anywhere to go to spend money but that is an aggregate. What is the longterm economic consequences of the lower tier of workers who are seeing their jobs get cut at a faster pace and who do not have the same kind of cushion even after the stimulus . Stephen those are the sorts of people that have to live paychecktopaycheck. The loss of a paycheck means a lot more for someone in that financial situation than it would for someone that has a nest big. A nestegg. There is an urgency to make sure we are providing ample support to that group of people who are unable to work and need the money right away. For the restency of the population is not as great. Theertainly made up over half of the jobs that were lost during the lockdown. There are a lot of folks out of work in the spring that were back, but there are still plenty who are not. Those are the folks we want to try to take care of, especially now we have a sense that perhaps it is only a few more months. Maybe the vaccines are broadly distributed by the spring and things can get back to something much closer to normal at that point. If i am a lawmaker at this point, it makes it easier to say we can support people for three or four more months, but it is not an indefinite thing anymore. Jonathan lets talk about the economic data. Tom mentioned the asian currencies doing well. The data out of china decent again this morning. I do not think it is ever too early to talk about payrolls. When it comes out in early december, what are you comfortable forecasting at this point given the direction of travel restrictions given the direction of travel with economic restrictions coming up in america . Stephen i would say most likely we will see another deceleration and this could be more significant than we have seen over the last couple of months. The pace of growth is steady over the last two to three months, certainly in the private numbers. You will probably see a slow down, obviously with the virus having picked up. We have seen a flurry of new restrictions put in place over the last week or so, and so my guess is, last week was the payroll surveys week. Whatever slow down you will see in the pace of job growth over the next several months is more likely to be clear in december than in november. I think we will get some slow and then avember, more significant one on the back of some of these virus restrictions. Jonathan lets add to this and think about the fact that the economy has had a severe stress test in the spring. Can you model what it might look like when you get the same stress test again . You had it wants and if you get a second time you had it once and how corporations might respond if you get a second time . Stephen one thing is people have gotten used to the new reality. Manufacturers close their plans for almost two months, and when they came back they had to retool their operations to provide for a more socially distant workplace. Having done that, it makes it far easier now, because they have already adjusted. The bulk of the adjustment that needs to be made now is dialing up and back the degree to which people are getting out and about, the mobility and the level of Contact People are having. That does affect restaurants and high Contact Industries like that. Hasrest of the economy already made the necessary adjustments and will not be disrupted too badly in the current situation. Tom is the stock market linked to your world . I would look at it as a gauge of sentiment. Clearly, at this point, it seems to me the stock market is looking through, investors are looking through the current bad news and into the prospect of an effective vaccine at some point next year and then getting back to something closer to normal over the course of 2021. That does not do anything for us today in terms of the number of cases and hospitalizations and deaths, but it suggests people are hopeful things will get back to something closer normal into 2021. Jonathan there is hope in this market for sure. Stephen stanley of amherst pierpont. Lets talk about the hope in the fuel that goes into the hope. Moderna, 94. 5 efficacy in their trials, follows pfizer at 90 . Up 13 for moderna. Small caps get a bid. Big tech does not. Tom if you look at the Morgan Stanley note where they lift up their targets, people are beginning to recalibrate. I want to go back to the way we are seeing people lift up, up 7 , up 6 . I questioned if that is framed into peoples minds. They are buying but they are not buying to be on board, buying to be a reachable target. 3900han Morgan Stanley year end 2021. In a call on the bond market for a higher 10 year yield. As you said at the top of the lisa Lisa Bramlett abramowicz, we are not getting the move in the bond market. Lisa is actually rolling over. Barely any move at all on the 10 year yield. 1. 45 and here yield. Longerterm growth does not escalate that much. Perhaps we return to a new normal but still Slower Growth with a lot of debt and an overhang from the pandemic. Jonathan in just a moment we will turn to a panel at the new Economy Forum, and on that panel will be blackstones Steve Schwarzman. In the news in the Financial Times because of the call of business leaders, the Financial Times reported that sportsmen defended that Steve Schwarzman defended the president s rights to challenge the results and question the results out of pennsylvania and the process through which lookout went through over there several days after the vote. It was an interesting defense of the president at the time when lisa asks the question who has the presidency or, this is a person who has the president s ear. Tom all of the principles in this important article, we speak to. Lower in the article was the uproar at this meeting of tim snyder, who is not inflammatory but is an academic to speak his mind. Professor snyder was talking schwarzman steve pushed back against that and said we have a democratic process and then blackstone put very clearly,t, this is steves opinion. I think the wait was spun over the weekend was unfair to Steve Schwarzman. Pointsn there are two according to the Financial Times. The two points made in the story. 1 is the president has a right to challenge the results and go through the Legal Process. Of course he has the right to do that. The second point is when he question participants on the call according to the Financial Times and asked if they did not find it so surprising that early voting had favored mr. Trump only for later counts to tip the vote in joe bidens favor. We know the process of account started with votes made on the date and then the mailin ballots were counted, which skewed heavily to joe biden and it is the second point that seems to be more controversial. The president absolutely has a right to go through the Legal Process and challenge these results if he so wishes. It is the second point about the count which implies some kind of fraud that is questionable. Tom that is fair. I want to make clear this is one line in an article versus reading the article. Brian roberts of the Roberts Family in philadelphia and comcast defended and explained within the call how they do things in pennsylvania. Steve said something with his support of mr. Trump and Congressional Republicans down the ticket, he said something that was controversial, but i thought the article was much more balanced than what the uproar was on social media against Steve Schwarzman and against blackstone. Jonathan i cannot agree, but that comes down to how people behave on social media. Tom when you go after me on social media, people do not know the whole story. We are actually on speaking terms. . Isa really questio jonathan just about. For two hours. With lisa mediating. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. We can now cross over the Bloomberg New Economy Forum. It is little bit different. The third event is going virtual. Panel on howo that low income essential workers have suffered disproportionately in a covid19 lockdown. On that panel, Blackstone Stephen schwarzman. Lets take a listen. Actually affects a broad majority in most advanced societies. A long period of relative stagnation of incomes, diminishing jobs in the middle, which we are all familiar with the polarization of the job market, and for large countries, particularly outside the metropolitan areas, gradual loss. F hope then you have a problem much lower down. Most of the job creation in a range of advanced economies some have avoided this like singapore and sweden, but most inthe job creation has been relatively Insecure Service sector jobs. Low skill, low productivity, and more insecure jobs. That is the major new problem we did not have 20 or 30 years ago. Coupled with that is the loss of a sense you can move up in the old way, in other words if you start from the bottom you have a chance of a middleclass life. There was a pathway. I think that hope and that set of aspirations is now diminished. With those does things of the same time, they are slow burn problems. The the middle class, and second, those who are lower down no longer have hope they can make it and there is a Clear Pathway to make into a middleclass life. We address the problems of covid , we can do it in a way that addresses these longer, slower burn problems. , whenjor interventions you think of government and when you think of the private sector first aroundlve intersection of learning getting a spiral back in the system. Learning, skills accumulation, job progression. There are all sorts of issues im happy to talk about later that, with the new way to think about learning that goes back to educational institutions, that goes to industry norms and certification competency, the set of issues to deal with public funding. How do you find lifelong . Earning and make it convenient for bluecollar workers, how do you accumulate Human Capital for the ordinary worker . How do we think about ordinary workers . Lot harder about public goods. Investment in public goods. Not just Traditional Solutions to any quality, which involve one form or another of redistribution. You will need redistribution. That will not change the game. We need a new era of investment in public goods. You get everything from basic science to trading torastructures, even investments and infrastructure. That will create jobs and opportunities. Refocusing budgets, refocusing fiscal policy on investment in public goods to broaden opportunities, to broaden job growth come into create that sense of optimism that unites people. That is the second major priority. You have just done my job and set up the entire rest of the panel. Thank you for that. It was interesting speaking with each of you leading up to this. Education is clearly a focal point for each of you. I want to start there. Jenny, tell us about new collar workers. This is something youve spent a lot of time on. How do we think about them differently and how do we educate them differently . Commend theike to minister as he set this up, because this is something we got involved in about a decade ago and it is for the reason you could begin to see the Digital Economy will not be inclusive. There would be far too many havenots versus habs in this evolves around having the right skills to work in a new job. Thesee with covid and all issues around racism and systemic racism, this just escalated this issue that was on the slow burn. What we set out employing the term new collar so we have a positive connotation so we have a new pathway for people into our company, not just a traditional four year degree. Collar, was not bluecollar. It would be about new collar jobs you could start without a four year degree. There are many jobs with take this intersection with technology, cloud computing, and you have to believe as an employer in three different paradigms. I think in some ways this would be my definition of the new social contract. One would be i would have to i would hire you because you had skills you had built in some ways. The second paradigm is i would offer a new pathway. Perhaps you come from a sixyear high school. We got very involved around the world in this. The third paradigm would be as an employer, i am offering you employability, though i may not guarantee employment, i can offer employability. We need the ability to constant build skills and you can have a good job. The issue will become quality jobs, not just any type of job. That let us us down a path of a Public Private partnership with high schools and Community Colleges around the world to build and say how fast can we go to underserved communities and hold people into the middle class for the first time. We now have a pipeline of almost 200,000 students coming through. It is so interesting to think about that from the perspective of a company like ibm and then to shift immediately to a company like mcdonalds. Hundreds of thousands of workers around the world. You and i were talking before we came on, we all know mcdonalds, we know the travis scott collaboration, we know the new pastry line. About what not think a massive employer you are and also the types of employees, which i think is important. I wonder what you have thought about over this past year and what this Inflection Point means for you, especially in terms of looking at the types of people who ultimately were kicked your franchise . Will ultimately worked at your franchise. Mcdonalds is the second largest private employer in the world. We employ about 2 million people. We are in the heart of the Service Sector and the Service Industry is critical overall globally. About half of jobs are in the Service Sector. 80 of jobs in the u. S. Are in the Service Sector. It is an area for us that is missioncritical. Our the premise of our company was built on how we figure out pathways for people within the system to become the restaurant managers, franchisees, company employees, and so we have a number of people who will progress through their career that way. Most people that come in through mcdonalds, and i would say that 25, andy start underage then they go on to do something else, and then we have about 500,000 former crew that are now teachers. We have 125,000 that are nurses. We have 2. 5 million that started their own business, and we have found it is not one solution we need to offer. We need to offer a range of different things, everything from english under the arches, life training, life skills. We have a significant number of cruise that are on bank number of crews that are unbanked, so how do we revive people with financial understanding and capabilities . Those are things weve been working on for a while. With the pandemic, we have had to spend a lot of time thinking about the Public Safety element of it and how do we keep our crew safe through all of this. That has been an evolving area of consciousness. There is now much higher level of appreciation and understanding on the safety component. Everybody, learned through this, because we were initially not set up to think about running our businesses from a Public Safety standpoint. And transmission rates we are now having to deal with those, which is why we have done a partnership with the mayo clinic because we view that will be something we will have to be dealing with and thinking about for the foreseeable future. Steve, i want to turn to you because you see the landscape from a number of different perspectives. Obviously as the chairman of a Global Investment firm, someone who is canceling World Leaders all of the time. From an economic and market perspective, one of the ways we are seeing inequality for whatrs and others is in people are increasingly calling the kshaped recovery. We are seeing the markets do well in a troubled world. What we need to do to solve for that . I think there are a number of things on the table. Two or three things i would like to address. Education,erms of which is the key, i was in china does years ago talking with a senior person who said they would be delivering Computer Science education to 100 of their population. Digital more and more in the United States, we probably in our large public systems, probably have around 5 of the people learning Computer Science. Not everybody in china will be a consumer scientist, but you will be exposed. We have to upgrade our Education System to be competitive on a global basis. On a broader basis, some of the mentioning ginny was. Ive sent you before we need a Marshall Plan through the middle class i have said to you before we need a Marshall Plan through the middle class, we have to make sure there is enough income. A 15 minimum wage adjusted for different parts of the country, implemented over different time something that gives more of a living wage and also pushes up compensation, not just for those people but for the people above them that are probably hit, 30 of the workforce. Education is the key. Education is the passport for a better life. We need to have Great Teachers and look back to different ways of educating, but in terms of teaching, we have all had Great Teachers and they make a difference in our lives and i think what we ought to do is have teachers be the only group of workers in the United States who do not have to pay tax. The reason i suggest that is it will mark them apart from all other types of employment as a valued class. Theirl also increase aftertax compensation significantly so we can attract more of the best and brightest to help us move in that direction. We also need to help our population around the world. Need the Business Community deeply engaged in the School System to provide apprenticeships and other types of ways where as ginny mentioned, not everybody has to have advanced degrees, but if they are linked into the Business Community, they will have a place to go to work. They will not be lost. They will be taught increasing levels of skills. If you start putting these things together, youre going to start to be able to make a dent in some of the pessimism that was described that regular people sometimes feel in the changing workforce we are all living in. I am fascinated by this , that is i read it essentially says from a high school, from a secondary school perspective, we are doing it wrong. Somewhat radical approach that if widely implemented could change the way we think about education, not just from a college level, but going even earlier than that. Tell us about why this could work or why it does work. It does work. The very first school we started was in brookland was in brooklyn and when Mike Bloomberg was there. Tom is set up executives in a very changed world from the Service Sector of mcdonalds to the technical cloud challenges of International Business machines and over to the efforts in finance. The challenges of the pandemic. That is our new Economy Forum and we thank you for staying through that. We have much more coming up through the morning. Part of it is the lift in the market off the vaccine news from moderna. , now up onlyints 430. Still 1. 5 move. Much more coming up. Jonathan ferro drives for the conversation on tv. Paul sweeney drives forward the conversation on radio. I do not know who i am joining. My joining jon ferro or paul sweeney . Lisa both. Tom a gloomy day in london. This is bloomberg. Jonathan from new york and london for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. The countdown to the opening bell starts right now. Equity futures advancing. The rotation is back and that is where we begin with the big issue. Vaccine optimism paving the way for record highs. Vaccine news. The vaccine. The market is close to a high. Infections are rising globally. The virus continues to surge. Markets look through them. Markets are still going higher. Arearket participants anticipating the likelihood of a vaccine. The vaccine is the game changer. That is the perspective you should have. Jonathan lets bring in kailey leinz and Sarah Ponczek for more. We want to start with the vaccine news. Pfizer last week, moderna this morning