Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20240713

The yield down below. 6 last time i checked, it was at 0. 597 dr. Fauci saying the first human trial testing for a covid19 vaccine is now on track calling it the ultimate game changer but that public distribution is still 12 to 18 months away. President trump was asked if the stom pile of personal protective equipment was nearly depleted. We are sending it directly to hospitals. We dont want to take it before it gets there. We asked many states to do this. Many states have people or where they make clothing, we said see if you can get it directly from those manufacturers. The president considering halting flights to hot spots in the country, which would be a shift in this batter and also potentially have an impact on when and if the economy will return to some normal si in the meantime, total death numbers have topped 5,100. Confirmed cases have topped 200,000. In new york, topping 81,000 cases. In italy, the lowest daily death toll the new number of active cases declining. The hate head of the Higher Health insurance tut calling it only a dissent if containment issues continue the other side is making sure the curve doesnt start up again. Trying to balance when we come back to work and normal si and trying to avoid the curve reemerging will be the next new challenge. This is true. It will be interesting when Antibody Testing gets developed. Then youll be free and clear. Do you have a teleprompter . I do. I do. Did you add in there the if when and if we return to normal. This is a live ad libbing show i dont like that if. Get that if out of there when when, baby when i just heard that. I have to look down. Im not shy. I have to look down. We know joe, i have this ipad if you put that right under the camera, you can use that as your prompter there becky told me some stuff that could be done. After about two sentences, i was so lost, i said ill just look down im just grateful to be here today. What happened technical issues. And you know the technical genius i am not. It has been a rough morning but im here when you said that, becomy. I thought about at the top of the show saying. At least im here but i meant it in a different way these are crazy times. To combine the markets are scarey enough. The back drop of that is the health and wellness of your family every day, it is just nonstop. Im talking jobless claims the last report seeing a staggering 3. 3 million firsttime filers. Some of the street estimating as much as 5 million well see. Well bring you full analysis of that number as soon as it hits the tape. Getting now to mike. You are thinking of shiplap technically behind me in my other location was clabber shiplap is a better name did those people throw you out of that house . Where are you now . One step ahead of the law ill be in the office later. Im mobil at this point. I may make a return tomorrow to the studio. I think maybe it is time is 5 many ill million possible today now, the stunning number was the day the stock market put in that final flourish of the rebounding that will be the kind of things reflected in jobless claims right now. In a similar fashion, how long we are on this road that is impaired so much we are in the zone right now at 4. 4 . That doesnt tell you much about what the markets are reacting to this is the kind of market we are in because we have such an opaque outlook it is not because the market figured something out. It is like we went down 35 Straight Line in a month bounced almost 20 and then bounces 6 we are just flailing around trying to figure out if value has surfaced if you want to look at the credit market, it is still around there is leakage it gets the markets attention nobody is buying back stock. The real hot money would have been to try to catch the lows. They are still up a bunch. The sloppy weeks after the initial break and i said we tried for a retracement. What did we do exactly you probably had that number off the lows that barely got off to 38 . 38 of the decline was recaptured then it slipped back from there. On the rally, it slipped back. This is not a timed test necessarily. You can shap around and sort it out. Everyone is kind of clustered in the same Balance Sheet holding up with the necessity retailers, costco and walmart. That makes all the sense in the world, can you go to one of these and have an easy trade keep working and is there too much crowding in those areas do you have to have a little give up in those ways. Im afraid to look. Here is what i thought of this morning when i checked the s p and it was just below. After december 2018, i used to make fun of a lot of these guys that were looking to go back to 2,400. They know who they are it took the scariest thing to get these guys back to what they thought was going to happen normally here we are testing the place they thought we would go based on valuation saying well 2,500 is not the end of the world when we touch 2,200 last week, that was enough for now. I think that is [ applause ] ible and i think everyone is fixed on when, when and if we get back to normal we are running credit in reverse, talking about default yes, was the fiscal package enough the wear and tear of the market struggling with is it going to be a v or a ushaped recovery. Is that your backhanded way of saying those guys were right . No. It took a Global Pandemic to get these guys back. They were so wrong that you needed close to the end of the world to prove you were right. I like santolis jacket. So the people that are letting you stay there, you are impressing them . Yes right. Trying to maintain minimal standards. Joe, can you hear me. We got to talk about the blaze thing. We dont have a drycleaner anymore. I may start wearing a blazer to cover up the wrinkles. We also have to talk about hair cuts and hair color. People dont keep a lot of hair coloring in the house. This is going to prove it. If you start to see the sweater of the month or the blazer, it is more of a covering issue. You dont go to a cleaner ive been ironing you can see im not a good ironer i see it. Oh, my god. Not like you when we come back, well talk about struggling businesses that have been working to cut costs rapidly. It could mean another hit to retirement plans and the challenge to retailers as store traffic tumbled by 97 announcer todays big number, 38 . Thats how much the russell 2000 is down from its extended high dropping 7 . Shouldnt you pay less when you use less data . Now you can. Because Xfinity Mobile gives you more flexible data. You can choose to share data between lines, mix with unlimited, or switch it up at any time. All on the most reliable wireless network. Which means you can save money without compromising on coverage. Get more flexible data, the most reliable network, and more savings. Plus, get 300 off when you buy a new Samsung Galaxy s20 ultra. Thats simple. Easy. Awesome. Go to xfinitymobile. Com today. Government relief checks are beginning to roll off the presses and should soon be on the way. Part of the 2 trillion relief bill second mnuchin announcing that Social Security recipients wont have to file a tax return to receive the stimulus taxpayers can expect anywhere from 1,200 to 2,400. Those who have direct deposit attached to the last filing will receive their money that way so some good news there. Good to hear. Businesses hit hard by the coronavirus are looking for ways to cut expenses fast some are taking aim at the 401 k match. Sharon has more on this this morning. Good morning. Companies are looking at cutting a key benefit. That is the 401 k matching they are expecting more than 200,000 Small Business retirement plans are at risk for termination. Companies like amtrak, havertys, marriott are considering. They have about 2 million participants said last year, the dollar amount for the average krub bu contribution was over 3,500 it is important for workers to put enough money in to get that company match. If you can afford it, it may be time to make sure you do that. You never know when that money your company has been offering may disappear. I guess that is more important than ever. If you put in, say, the average 10,000 last year, if you can afford to, put it in when the markets are this much cheaper. Absolutely. If you can afford to match out the 401 k now is the time to do it you get an extra 6,500 catch up if you are 65 or older many people are looking at how to make get money out of the 4 0 1 k because they are struggling. You never know if this matching contribution for companies will go away. Thank you it is good to see you. You too be well. A lot of bucks floridas governor issuing a stay at home order showing you the spread of traveling spring breakers using actual cell phone data some images of the pandemics impact from yesterday across america. At t has connected us every day for over 100 years. And were here for you especially now, doing Everything Possible to keep you connected. Through the resilience of our network and people. We can keep learning, keep sharing, keep watching, and most of all, keep together. Its the job weve always done. It is the job we will always do. Wont be a new thing. And it wont be their First Experience with social distancing. Overcoming challenges is what defines the military community. Usaa has been standing with them, for nearly a hundred years. And well be here to serve for a hundred more. Welcome back floridas governor faces pressure for not implementing containment measures that changed yesterday when they issued a stayathome order. Weve been working on this. Southeast florida is operating on stricter measures now this is another 30day period. At this point, i think even though there is a lot of places in florida with very low infection rates, it makes sense for this move now. The governor also questions cruise ships seeking to dock one of those ships has sick passengers on it and even a death. Clearly, well be willing to accept any florians on board my understanding is that most of the passengers are foreign nationals. We have worked so hard to make sure we have adequate hospital space in case of a surge, we wouldnt want those beds to be taken. Two ships expected to reach waters near florida will happen this morning itsunclear whether they will allow passengers to disembark. In the meantime, the tweet attracted a lot of attention tracking the travel of spring breakers on a Florida Beach as they made their way home across the country shows you how this virus can spread thank you for being on with us today. First of all, what is tektonics. Sure. We are a visualization and platform meant for handling massive quantities of data we can take millions of points and tell unique stories of what the data shows why dont we show people this video of all the spring breakers on that beach in for tt lauderdale sure. We took a look at one particular beach in florida over spring break. We zoomed out and showed where all those people came from and where they went when spring break was over it is really compelling. I think people realize people travel to spring break and then home it is kpilicompelling of what Community Spread looks like. How did you even get this data we partner with a company that was gracious enough to give us access. They saw we were in a good position to be able to tell the story and underscore what these things look like how do they get access to that data . Does everybody Walking Around with a cell phone give off a signal that can be tracked sure. It is touching on the privacy aspect we understand more than anybody how important privacy is in this age. Er we only work with partners that have the option to opt out of the data collected. What other videos did you see and track there . For the new york video, it was pretty much the same the new york video was what does it look like when people from a huge city like new york start to move around the country. The baltimore video is great to show what social distancing looks like it starts with more of the moving restrictions and closures it stales down to after the governor closed the nonessential businesses you can see the harbor there go dark thank you for joining us today. Fascinating videos we appreciate your time. The challenge as store traffic plummeted 90 . Tune in tonight for a look at the path forward for individual Business Owners here in the United States. That starts at 7 00 p. M. Eastern. We head to a break and look at yesterdays s p 500 winners and loosers. vo quickbooks salutes those who work for themselves. Theyre adapting to support their communities. But many need our help. If youre a Small Business in need, or want to help a local business, go to quickbooks. Com smallbusinesshelp intuit quickbooks. Take a quick look at the futures this morning we lost nearly what is that, quadruple digits yesterday we are getting that back a little bit with the dow up an implied 330 points and some comments from President Trump on russia and crude there. That helps markets at this point. Andrew retail continues to get hit by the coronavirus a new report showing the total u. S. Retail traffic for the weekending march 27 was down a whoping 97 year over year plummeting across the board with macys getting kicked now out of the s p 500. Yesterdays report showing retail as one of the hardest hit sectors by coronavirus the economy is expecting another 3 million plus unemployment filings. A look now at whether the sector can overcome the chairman and ceo of sax. Great to have you on the program this morning e commerce may be holding up in some regard. I wonder if there is a forever step change when it comes to retails in the store this is a threat to retail. Youll have winners and losers it is hard to run a business for long periods of time with no revenue. 85 of volume is still done in a physical store that is my question one, does the liquidity crisis today become an issue tomorrow how long can they really go . It really depends on the condition of the retailer coming into this. Those running higher debt will have a harder time surviving if they are cutting costs, represent, labor they are not paying landlords, vendors are not getting paid those that are weak will have a harder time surviving this who do you put in that category i put Neiman Marcus in that category these had troubled Balance Sheets even before this. What you do have is the governor of ohio for example do an executive order encouraging landlords to forego rent and for troubled retailers to get through this a lot of companies will come out of this fine you cant survive this forever the real question is how do you get through this make sure you get through to the other side then it is, what is the model. When does it turn. Everybody is assuming that you are not going to get retails open until another eight weeks to open up and then it is what is the base of the recovery . A v, a u what is going to happen . Go ahead. There are so many economists that have this view that there will be so much pentup demand that it will get pulled forward or back. Do you think it is true or not given the other side which is unemployment piece we are in unchartered waters. If you look at the chinese experience, youll see stores are open but recovery will be slow brick and mortar will be down. Maybe it will be stronger. Weve never seen this before the question is how quickly people get back to work, stores open companies will have to think hard about how much do they buy for the Holiday Season they dont know the demand if you buy too little, it will be too much and running the risk of a massive am of excessive inventory. There is excess sitting there today that has to be cleared you need the landlords to help the retailers in terms of rent you need lenders to help the landlords. The consumer helped a lot. We need to get the dollar into peoples hands well get the unemployment number this morning. One out of four jobs in america are tied to retail how concerned are you about some of the work stoppages atom zon and else where where you have workers concerned about their own safety there on the front line getti s much of the items to the people. We are hearing real challenges to these companies how concerned should we be here . Im concerned for the people. Health care workers, anybody on the front line needs to be working in as safe an environment as possible. We needthe goods going im holed up in my apartment in miami and not going out much we need delivery of food, and packages we want to make sure everybody is as safe as possible i think it is our responsibility and the companys responsibility to make sure employees are as safe as they possibly could be making sure the ships dont have an issue it is a tough time everybody is facing right now steve, thank you for joining us stay safe and healthy, please. You do. Take care. When we come back, more on the latest market moves. Take a look at the futures declines of 4. 4 almost 1,000 points for the dow. That looks like the dow would open up about 330 points here. Well keep an eye on it. New details on the spread of the coronavirus with dr. Scott gottlieb you can watch us live or watch you can watch us live or watch any timetold hours of careful. On the sapp. Infinite what ifs . And contingency plans. Creating funds that help target gaps in client portfolios. Tap untapped potential. And strengthen confidence in you. Flexshares. Powered by over a century of investment expertise before investing consider the Funds Investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Go to flexshares. Com for a prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully. Welcome back looking at futures after a down day yesterday, it looks like well open about 336 points higher, the nasdaq about 69 points higher. Dr. Fauci has become the face of the virus fight. They are stepping up his security new data on alcohol sales. Sales were up by 55 in the weekending march 21st. Wine sales were up 66 , beer sales up by 42 . Probably not all that surprising as people begin hoarding things. I did think it was interesting in new jersey, Liquor Stores are considered essential businesses. Those are the ones still open now too. Well, duh i think that is to keep people from uprising and make sure they do stay home slowly easing back to a little bit of sarkasim me too. Watching the press conference and there are times it seems to be a little therapeutic. There are times it does that but i have to shut it off. That. I meant the alcohol. I meant the press conference. Always. Coming up, well get an update from dr. Scott gottlieb talking about what it will take to get america back after this crisis announcer dont forget to subscribe to our podcast look for us on Apple Podcast or your favorite podcast app and subscribe to squawk pod today. Worldwide Coronavirus Infections now number more than 941,000 and 216,000 of those are in the United States the u. S. Death toll has topped 5100 joining us now former fda commissioner dr. Scott gottleib. He is also a cnbc contributor and serves on the boards of pfizer and i willumina. I dont know, doctor i just touched my face. I do a lot of hand washing its impossible not to when i say 941,000 and 216,000 in the United States, are those useful at all . What are they . Theyre just people that have tested positive but if were off by a factor of 10, is it really even relevant to talk about it well, look, theyre tragic measures of morbidity and mortality associated with this disease. I think what we should be looking at is the rate of new infections and whether or not the rate is going up or down you see some slowing in the curves with respect to new york and the steepening with respect to louisiana and california in terms of how long it is taking to doubling the numbers. Where is it accelerating where are they decelerating . They seem to be decelerating in new york we dont have a lot of days. There are some positive signals in massachusetts some that were early to take mitigation steps, certainly San Francisco and seattle are indicating theyre moving in the right direction. That all sounds pretty positive and i was going to talk about italy. Im seeing at least that, youre looking at bar charts. There have been three or four, even five days that seem to indicate maybe theres some improvement in italy but then i just harken back to china. What some of the conjecture that has come out recently, how many people left wuhan, how many people total that they talk about that theyre starting to say, yeah, maybe asymptomatic cases were higher. I dont know whether we can count on what happened in china with the numbers, although people are back to work. If things are more positive in italy, thats something to be at least heartened about. Thats right. Italy looks like theyre peaking. You know, the top isnt a Straight Line up and a Straight Line down. Its going to bounce around at the top for a number of days and maybe a week or more italy does seem to be at a plateau. Spain may be decelerating as well the epidemic will run its course here the concern is that its such a big country and were going to have so many hot spots, so many epi centers, they wont be going up and down. You cant look at the national trend. You need to look at it regionally it can be showing a decline. Its coming down its epidemic curve. Other places could be rising steeply. You need to look at the southwest, Pacific Northwest and northeast, the southeast the southeast looks like the most concerning region if i was to pick one. Florida, georgia, parts of alabama, louisiana if you consider that southeast. The south, the sunbelt those states look to be very concerning in terms of the growth in new cases. Doctor, are some of these small trials of these drugs that were seeing, hydroxychloroquine, i dont know whether to put any faith in them, but you see some positive stuff. Once again, its on twitter or the internet so i take it with a big grain of salt but seeing things saying 71 patients, zero intubated after taking the drug. Do you see anything that makes you think that the evidence is starting to look like it helps with a sarstype respiratory virus, high trokydroxychloroquie you still unwilling to say that . We need a drug here we need to figure a vaccine might be two years away. This virus will continue to bounce around the world. It will change our lives until we have a therapeutic. It can take the fear away from the virus spreading in the background a drug can do that we can have a therapeutic by this summer or fall. I think it will require them to take on a different role naid and tony faucis group are partnering with maderna. Theyve made a bet on a vaccine. We really need to do the same thing with therapeutics as well. Were not doing that we need to partner with the companies that have the most promising therapies and try to drive through development and have a sense of urgency. The Oncology Department has had a sense of urgency about trying to bring promising cancer drugs more quickly coming up with different regulatory approaches trying to do that. We need to do the same thing here we need a therapeutic through the fall it will continue to shut down parts of our lives this is going to circulate in the background the consumer is not going to bounce back. People will be afraid to go out and well continue to see people succumb to this virus. Was that a yes, no was that a yes, no, or mayby about hydroxychloroquine that was a long answer but yeah, well, look on hydroxychloroquine specifically, theres small studies right now. They look interesting. They certainly show some promise. Theres a 60patient study you were pointing to out of china. These are early studies. I wouldnt place all of my beds with hydroxychloroquine. Hydroxychloroquine may work, but i will say its being used pretty widely in italy and the u. S. If its positive, its having an effect, its not an effect thats very apparent okay. Thats too bad all right. I know youve talked about the gilead drug as well. Dr. Gottleib, once again, thank you. We like it nice to see the outside. Thats what people say about my shot as well beautiful shot thank you, doctor. Coming up when we return, a lot more on squawk box. Were going to talk to former Small Business administrator Linda Mcmahon about the rollout of treasurys 315 billion Small Business loans program. Plus, garbage collection and recycling in todays shelter in place order. James fish will talk about the changes hes seeing and the precautions his workers are taking more of cnbcs special market coverage right here on squawk box after the short break a rocky start to the Second Quarter for the markets. This morning the futures are pointing higher. That could change as investors brace for more bad news on the jobs front weekly unemployment data just 90 minutes away this could be a doozy. The coronavirus in the u. S the death toll surpassing five,000 as global infections near 1 million dr. Anthony fauci says a vaccine trial is on target and it could be a game changer. That story and your latest corporate headlines straight ahead. Is this me its you, joe take a look at the futures. Good morning, welcome back. Welcome back to squawk box. Were going to take a quick look at the futures again up 300 points or so. They have not really moved at this point there for most of the morning. Weve also had a big move in oil and the 10year is, as you know, at about. 59 on the session this morning becky . Hey, joe, say my name thats the other part of your job right now. Say my name and yours and andrews. Becky no, all of us youre joe kernen, Andrew Ross Sorkin, im becky quick. Andrew ross sorkin is at we dont put at home on yours, andrew we put that you are in connecticut for some reason on all the rundowns. We dont say home thats specifically your home its not it is your home now. Its a rental right its a rental a flooded rental. Its a rental it was a flooded rental. We got a new pump in the basement so were hopefully not going to have that problem again. You have a pump and a teleprompter weve got a teleprompter and a flood at the same time meantime, a brutal start as so many of our viewers know to the quarter amid fears about the coronavirus, whether it will should down the markets for longer Kayla Tausche on the government stimulus plan to keep businesses running and Steve Liesman looking at the upcoming jobs data steve, we will start with you. Good morning, mr. Liesman. Reporter good morning, andrew the jobless claims number coming out at 8 30 has become the leading way were going to be monitoring this economy. Probably the most important economic indicator, both to show the pain inflicted on the economy with the coronavirus and to show hopefully when we start to bounce back it will be the leading indicator on that. Were looking for unbelievable 3. 1 million claims to be filed this morning that would be the second record after last weeks 3. 283 million. I have seen very large estimates. What i did is i modeled in, if you take the last week plus the estimate for this week, what that would mean for unemployment it would mean that we may have an Unemployment Rate that is already 7. 4 the current rate is 3. 4 the estimate for tomorrow for the jobs number from the government is 3. 7 thats because the time period for the jobs report tomorrow is going to miss almost all of what happened because and it was only for the first part of march. If you model in the 6 millioning additional claims there, we could be at 7. 4 unemployment already now. In fact, it might be higher. Take a look at this astonishing chart here which shows the rise in continuing claims from the last crisis and then i overlaid on top of that, this last week and an estimate for this week. We got higher in two weeks than we ever got during the financial crisis so at peak unemployment claims or peak continuing claims where was the Unemployment Rate . The next chart shows you that. It shows you when we were at 7 million or 6. 5 million unemployment claims in the financial crisis, we were north of 10 on the Unemployment Rate. The number could be larger today. Goldman sachs has an estimate of around 6 million for this week the reason is there may be a large backlog. New york was not even among the top 10 states. There has been an increase, as kayla is going to tell you, in the Government Stimulus Program eligibility so more people could be applying. Unfortunately theres very little offsetting hiring that would tend to attenuate the rise in claims. The real story here is the ability for states to process it we wont have a stable level, guys, until we work all of that through. So theres incentive for people to file for unemployment claims and thats why this number is going to keep getting bigger and bigger andrew steve, before you go, i wanted to ask you about one other headline in the news this is about the Federal Reserve and whats called the supplemental capital ratio effectively to keep a certain amount than we had before. Should we be concerned about that i dont think so, andrew. Its only really for very safe assets they dont have to keep capital for. If i would say the fed has been late on anything, i think it was late on this particular move weve been talking about this for a long time. There is an ability for the banks to play a larger role here in helping out the fed and helping out the economy by using their Balance Sheets i think this will do it. By the way, there was talk of relaxing this rule even before this crisis set in i will say that sheila bahre in several tweets yesterday is a big fan of this. She wants to do share buy backs. Theyve stopped voluntarily share buy backs. They continue to pay dividends if you do this, you have to do that thats another debate. I think this is another way for the Federal Reserve to let the Banking System help with this process of cleaning up credit markets. Becky, over to you. Andrew, thank you, the governments Small Business loan program to shore up main street goes public tomorrow kayla tau think is covering that story for us good morning. Reporter good morning, becky. This is an unprecedented package for Small Business relief. Its the unprecedented nature that will pose a challenge trying to disburse a record amount of money in a short period of time here. The Small Business administration for perspective in its last fiscal year lengt ou 30 billion in loans for Small Businesses theyre trying to do three times of that in weeks if not days the whole of the sba is getting help from other parts of the federal government the white house has dispatched three aides in this, they have sent one aid they have a team of a dozen officials working to get this program off the ground Staffing Levels are down significantly from the head count. In 2009 head counted treasury swelled to 1200 fulltime employees. Currently it stands at 743 according to a reuters analysis of publicly available data as of last night banks have to become sba lenders to get this money out to businesses the people who are trying to get it as of last night, they said they were working on that. Certainly there are a lot of ts to cross and is to dot before this can get off the ground, becky. Kayla, i would imagine part of that is how many people the banks themselves have staffed up, particularly in places where you see lockdowns. Obviously banks are still essential services, but my guess would be they are not completely staffed either at this point reporter they are not. They are operating with skeleton crews at the branches. Their hope is this can be done mostly digitally they can download applications and send them in by email or talk to their relationship lender directly. They dont want people coming into branches, not only because they dont have the staff but for Health Reasons they dont want people lining up around the block, being in close quarters they are urging people to do this online or over the phone if possible well see if that works. Kayla tausche, thank you. Joe . Thanks, becky joining us now, Linda Mcmahon, former Small Business Administration Administrator its great to see you. Thank you. Linda, the wed like to make it really easy, obviously, but then again you dont want to make fraud easy. It sounds like a very difficult fine line to try to or a needle to thread can we trust the banks and government to Work Together on doing this, right . Well, i think ka la certainly outlined the situation very well, but i do know that this is an opportunity for the you know, for the private sector and the Public Sector to work very well together. There will be some challenges in this program, theres no doubt about it i think as you were talking about it earlier, seeing the increase in unemployment, its imperative that this money does get into the hands of Small Businesses who actually employ about half the work force in the country. So i think the fact that so many Small Businesses are offline, if you will, right now and their employees are either laid off or being furloughed, the president wants to make sure that we can get these employees rehired or hold on to them. So by giving these loans to Small Businesses and having Small Businesses go directly to their lender and not process it through sba is one of the ways theres going to be an ease in making these loans now you can go on sba. Gov or you can go on treasury. Gov and download the application and send it in to your local lender, but it is a challenge but i think were going to see money get into the hands of many Small Businesses really quickly, and thats certainly the president s directive. Some of the concerns were addressed and people are already laid off do they qualify for forgiveness, you need to rehire people. A lot of these things were dealt with, but the one thing that people still worry about is how quickly we could go through the 349 billion. And does it run out and someone thats late find that the funds are already gone do we raise the cap . Hows that going to work well, i heard secretary mnuchin yesterday say that if this was not adequate, then they would refund it with more money. This does give Small Businesses an opportunity, you know, for eight weeks to borrow the money, to rehire, to keep people on staff, to pay their overhead, their rent, their mortgages for the business and if they do that for these loans for this eightweek period, those loans are forgiven if the loan is for a larger amount than for those eight weeks of payroll on an application, then they can defer the amount thats left on that loan, but the first eight weeks does get forgiven. Its a Great Program for Small Businesses i urge them to go to treasury. Gov or sba. Gov and submit their applications. I urge the banks also who want to get their approval applications in from treasury. Treasury needs to get them online the programs are going to get rolled out tomorrow. Linda, i was on the phone with a Small Business owner yesterday who was dealing with this trying to make sense of whether to take the loan, how to do it, what to do and their worry, theyre in new york city, is that their business is going to slow materially even in two months from now even if theyre able to open up shop their worry is will they get this they thought this was going to run sometime into the fall and were kernt should they take the gamble that the government might try to help them if things dont get better what do you tell that Small Business owner you know, thats so difficult because the Business Owner themselves nose what their business is capable of doing and i think though its much easier to have your business go forward again if youve got Employee Retention if you dont have those employees, if you have to recreate that staff because some of these furloughed or laid off employees, you know, arent going to come back you know, unfortunately sometimes businesses arent going to come back, but i think by and large Small Businesses, entrepreneurs find a way to keep their businesses going and to its that entrepreneurial spirit that probably put them in business in the first place. I think this life line that the government is extending to Small Businesses is going to be very helpful. Thank you do i call you administrator mcmahon . I called you linda former Small Business administrator Linda Mcmahon, thank you. We appreciate it fingers crossed this will work the way its intended. Sounds like it might thank you meantime, not a Small Business, but dow component walgreens out with Quarterly Earnings the Company Reported adjusted property at 1. 52 per share. 6 cents above estimates with revenue beating wall street forecasts as many other companies have done, walgreens said the uncertainty surrounding the covid19 pandemic making it impossible to actually forecast the Financial Impact like so many other companies withdrawing effectively guidance. When we come back, a lot more on squawk box. Well talk about workers making sure your trash and unwanted goods are being taken away even in a pandemic. Theyll discuss the business, preventive measures and a lot more first as we head to that break, check out futures this morning we are in the green. The dow looks like wed open up about 277 points higher. S p 500 but 27 points higher oil has moved higher which may be why this is all happening well talk about that and more when we come back after this its a challenging market. Edward jones is well aware of that. Which is why were ready to listen. And ready to help you find opportunity. So. Lets talk. Edward jones. Its time for investing to feel individual. I am totally blind. And non24 can make me show up too early. Or too late. Or make me feel like im not really there. Talk to your doctor, and call 8442342424. Like rock, reggaeton, alland techno. Get ready for the drop. Wait for it. Wait for it. Come on man hit me wait for it. Just do it already one more time yeah. Shbecause Xfinity Mobilehen ygives you more flexible data. You can choose to share data between lines, mix with unlimited, or switch it up at any time. All on the most reliable wireless network. Which means you can save money without compromising on coverage. Get more flexible data, the most reliable network, and more savings. Plus, get 300 off when you buy a new Samsung Galaxy s20 ultra. Thats simple. Easy. Awesome. Go to xfinitymobile. Com today. Welcome back, everybody. Waste management has 45,000 employees. About half of those people are working from home but the other half remain on the front lines collecting garbage the company says its guaranteeing up to 40 hours of pay per week for the duration of the pandemic joining us is james fish, waste managements president and ceo thanks for being with us. Good morning, becky you know, i was thinking about you the other day when i was sitting at home realizing that wed be in big, big trouble if the garbage wasnt being picked up around here considering were all at home all the time and probably generating a lot more waste at home than we have in the past. Whats it meant for your company at this point . How are you all dealing with this pandemic . Well, just like virtually every company out there, everything changed overnight so weve moved 20,000 people to a work from home environment those folks that are not required to be in the office have moved from work to home and weve been closely following cdc and the w. H. O. Protocols for those front line folks who are those people who are picking up the trash to make sure they are not at a heightened risk of contracting the virus. Weve been putting some super strong protocols in place fo social distancing. Ive been out to some of our sites and observed those regularly cleaning those surfaces, including trucks that are touched freakily, hand cleaning i think weve literally bought, you know, thousands of gallons of hand sanitizer. From a health and safety perspective and its shifting from commercial and industrial over to residential. We are seeing a shift in volumes. Whats that mean overall in terms of the residential stuff going up obviously, but commercial going down pretty extensively. I would guess that overall your volume is down yeah. I mean, were still tbd to see exactly what the impact of this is on us. We do know with Small Businesses and big businesses really kind of shutting down overnight, we are seeing that commercial business, industrial business come down. Residential is not necessarily going up in terms of the number of units there arent anymore homes out there, its just that the wait of each contain they were is going down p one area. The pop who aeople who are pp garbage out there, do you have masks for them do you take their temperatures its moving and changing just in terms of the guidance from the cdc. We have been following very closely what cdc, w. H. O. , osha have been saying on the topic. They have said that waste handling is not a pathway to the disease, so over and above those standard protocols that we have for handling waste or recycling, weve put into place the use of personal protecttive equipment depending where you are, certainly masks are certainly part of that and of course gloves which protect you weve also talked to our folks a lot about even if youre wearing gloves, if you didnt turn around and touch your face with those gloves, then you expose yourself weve put our our own list of procedures i think the biggest risk is less about the handling of the waste and more about those social distancing policies at our sites. Were just social people when all of our drivers come in in the morning, it was one of the things i saw at one of our big sites in houston theyll congregate around where they check in. Weve really had to separate them and thats been difficult for them because of the social nature of our folks. Jim, how many of your markets are still kind of open for business how many are shut down how many are hot spots that we talk about every day theyre all open for business im sorry, i mean how many of the states that youre serving right now have stayathome orders how many markets are still fairly open . Then i guess how many of the markets that youre serving are active hot spots okay. I dont have an exact number for that, but we are predominantly not exclusively. We do have some rural areas, but were predominantly an urban company so to the extent most urban areas are in stayathome orders, i would say most urban areas are in some shutdown ordinance. The small areas are not and we do service a lot of those. A lot of our big operations are in big urban areas like los angeles, chicago, houston, new york area. Jim, want to thank you for your time. I want to thank you for what you and your team are doing. You bet thanks so much, becky. Thank you joe . Thanks, beck. Coming up, its been a tough early spring for real estate across the country amid the outbreak, and for new york city its been even worse robert frank will have details in a bit first as we head to break, heres this mornings preMarket Movers were coming right back. Still to come this morning, markets are bracing for more data on the jobs front were going to be getting those unemployment claims data in just about an hour from now well be watching that very closely. Up next, the bloom is off the rose when it comes to the spring selling season were going to talk about the Real Estate Market and what you should be doing right now. Plus, Oil Prices Moving higher this morning. President trump says he expects saudi arabia and russia to come to an agreement about their price war. This morning oil seems to be helping equities well have more on the move to crude. Stay tuned, well be right back. We cannot do all the good that the world needs. But right now, the world needs all the good that we can do. To everyone working to keep america strong, thank you. Welcome back if youre just waking up this morning, check out the futures we have been up around 300 points on the dow for most of the morning, but i think recently we have dipped just below that the ten year is at about. 59 and oil is up sharply, about 10 but to the low 20s right now becky . Joe, thank you. The coronavirus is slamming the Housing Market Spring Season and new york citys real estate has been hit especially hard robert frank joins us right now. He has more on that front. Hi, robert good to see you. Reporter good morning, becky. The First Quarter numbers are out in manhattan i want to focus on the last two weeks of march thats that you will matters the last week of march we had only 2 contracts signed for over 4 million. That was the worst week since 2009 one of those contracts was for an apartment that went for 40 below its original asking price of 11 million. The biggest shock is inventory new york listings were down 85 from the same time a year ago. The number of listings pulled from the market jumped by 68 . Basically whats happening here is that sellers have pulled everything off the market in new york city knowing that the buyers are just staying away right now. The big drop of course is going to be in april and may those are usually the two strongest months for real estate in new york. Experts say prices could fall between 20 and 25 when apartments finally start trading later this summer. Since we saw price drops of similar amounts during 9 11 and the financial crisis remember, that comes after two years of declines in manhattan where weve already seen prices drop between 20 and 30 and more depending on the segments. The real weak spot here is new development. Just in the First Quarter, so that included some strong months of january, february, early march we saw prices for new development condos fall 50 and, again, remember that was before all this stuff happened with the pandemic we now have a 17month supply. I want to bring you some additional news overnight, guys. Real estate has been deemed as of last night essential to new york so before last night we didnt have showings, we didnt have inspections, we didnt have appraisals as of this morning realtors can now show apartments, not that theyre going to, not that there are many buyers that want to do that right now to show you how important real estate is to new york, the governor saying real estate is essential and can continue doing business guys hey, they may say its essential and they can continue doing business, but good luck trying to get people to show up for an open house right now. No thank you exactly thats why a lot of this has gone virtual even the virtual stuff, people arent going to see an apartment right now. Right robert, thank you very much. Good to see you. Reporter thank you. Were going to continue this conversation right now i want to bring in scott reckler. Chairman and ceo of rxr. Youve been listening to this conversation and, scott, how bad is it going to be . You have to put things into perspective. New york is the epicenter. Weve had 18,000 cases theyre predicting 20,000 deaths to come. Weve had 2 thousand deaths. Were in a sense of crisis april will be a period that will be really, really hard for the new York Community we have friends, 23578ly i had a call at 4 00 in the morning whose parents father is sick with the virus and having a tough time i would expect it to get bad april is going to be a very, very tough month for all of us personally and for the market in general. I feel like may is going to be where we hopefully are going to start coming out of the fog. When we hit june were going to have to start adjusting towhat that new normal is as we start trying to phase out of this extreme social distancing and, you know, essential work orders. Thats going to be a slow process. Even through the balance of the year i think it will be slow. Thats what i was going to ask. What do you think is going to happen to Property Values . Robert was talking about how Property Values after 2008 fell at least 25 more in certain places around new york and of course around the country, you know, even worse whats your expectation . Yeah. I dont think its appropriate to think about the values in this moment in time because this is unprecedented, right . Weve put the economy in a coma and were now trying to keep it alive as we work our way through the kroo isis. When we get to the other side of the crisis, new york is still new york and there will be demand i think we have to get through the crisis, let things normalize and then the market will settle on to what the appropriate pricing is so i would think not until next year will we really be able to see what that pricing is remember 08 we had the banking cries ssis as you know well and there was financial distress around that. I think as we come back and the economy starts to work its way back in 2021, the mashts will recover and well get some price clarity. Okay. Let me ask you a different question then and it relates to price clarity. I know we are in a Health Care Crisis and we are trying to make sense for those out there who have businesses, who own homes, who are trying to figure out what the value of things are or are not going to be. If you can help us with that, wed all appreciate that let me ask you whether you think theres going to be one of the things people talk about is whether theres going to be a trend to actually leave new york city after this as a function of this people who want to live in the suburbs or outside of the city after this crisis given the compactness of the city. Just like after 9 11, theres going to be a recalibration of what the new normal and the social norms are and dense si if i densification is something people have to come to terms with we see it in the Office Business where weve had some of our large tenants call us. The way they focused in the past was to densify the space to get as many people in the small amount of space. Theyre concerned. They cant have traders sitting 6 inches apart from each other theyre looking for more space so when they bring people back they can have more distancing. There will be limitations about the number of people in a conference room. There will be a change of how many people can come into the elevators. After 9 11 there was a tradeoff between conveniences and privacy for public safety. There will be a similar trading do you see a ten year or decade long trend where you have this densificati 00 n progron p which is a euphemism, im doing meetings on zoom im going to come into the office twice a week for meetings but the rest of the time im going to do my work from home . I mean, what kind of real secular trends do you think may come of this i think companies and people are going to change how they work theres no doubt theyre going to be much more sensitive to density and to wellness. Theyre going to think about distancing rather than density so what will they do theyre going to go to work. Theyll have a teams, b teams, some rotation. Maybe there are satellite offices that you have your main office, Regional Satellite Office so youre not necessarily working from home. There will be monitoring of surges of viruses and to people with temperatures and maybe they adjust at that time. So theres going to be a lot of changes but new york is resilient. New york has proven over and over again that its where the best and the brightest want to be there theyll find a way to be there scott, no, i appreciate it. The issues that youre talking about i imagine are things were going to deal with that and hopefully well have an antiviral or vaccine or something within the next 12 to 18 months. I think what im trying to get at is the sort of bigger picture, five years from now do you think whats happened in this experience is going to change the way people buy real estate, where they want to be, whether they want to live in the suburbs, whether they want to live in the city, go to the office the same way they used to when you talk to people, what are you thinking in that regard . Listen, i think its going to change its going to change the way people live. It will change the way people work because even five years from now theyre going to be concerned about another pandemic weve had this experience and see how extreme it impacts our lives. That being said, people are going to find a new way to enjoy new york city. I mean, new york city has become the capital of the world and people from around the world want to be there it will be different maybe they want more space in their apartment. Maybe they want more outdoor space. Air quality. The type of Construction Materials we use so we will adjust. The city will adjust just like it adjusted post 9 11 and make it a place people want to come, live and work. Scott, thank you for joining us this morning. Appreciate it. Thank you. Stay healthy and safe out there. Thanks. Stay healthy, too. You bet joe. Thanks, andrew. Oil prices rising this morning stocks in the sector are up. Exxon, chevron dom chu will run us through the names on the move. Reminder, you can watch us live on the cnbc app. Well be right back. Yes. Its the first word of any new discovery. But when allergies attack, the excitement fades. Allegra helps you say yes with the fastest nondrowsy allergy relief and turning a half hearted yes, into an all in yes. Allegra. Live your life, not your allergies. All right. Dom chu, welcome back. Lets check the futures at this hour well get to dom we are up under 300 at this point. Been up somewhere between 250 and 350 for most of the morning, but we want to look at some individual Market Movers now dom chu joins us from cnbc headquarters look at the oil patch. Hey, dom. Reporter it feels like forever since ive seen you guys, certainly in person. I cant remember the last time i got to hang out with you guys in this new virtual setting weve had. Lets take a look at whats happening with the oil market specifically because if you look at the picture for energy markets, you look at whats happening there well, thats the wrong chart. It should be ice brent crude, we can look at that its down 61 over the course of just the last year and a sharp move lower here just in the yeartodate period. Thats something well keep an eye on with regard to the industry overall, take a look at wti crude in terms of the move just so far in the last couple of months were down about 60 some , 64 in that price from the peak we saw over the last 52week period in crude prices. That is because we are seeing a bid today of around 10 after President Trump says he has spoken to the leaders of saudi arabia and russia looking to find ways to shore up the oil market also, russian president Vladimir Putin saying that he wants to find a way to stabilize the market as well President Trump having a lot of the industry executives in oil and gas to the white house to talk about the industry as well. The Energy Sector is down 38 . The oil and Services Exploration and production side of things is down 46 the Oil Services Companies down 56 . Those are the big etfs that track it this morning, take a look at these particular movers because names on the small, medium and large side of things like noble, like apache, chevron, exxon mobil up big over the course of the premarket period. Well keep looking at that entire industry and space, andrew ba back over to you guys. Thanks, dom other stocks to watch, walgreens higher beating estimates on the top and bottom lines like many other companies, it said its not able to accurately follow this. Auto retailer carmax, the latest Quarter Report featured better than expected top and Bottom Line Results it did say that demand has progressively deteriorated then theres carnival. Carnival is able to raise 6. 25 billion in new debt and Equity Offering the cruise line operator did pay a pretty steep price for it. The 4 billion debt portion was sold with a yield of 11. 5 carnival last raised money back in october, paid only 1 puts a lot of all of this in perspective. Becky . Andrew, im looking at your shirt. You need a steamer. Youre looking at my wrinkles. That will fix it. Its easier. Steamer is im now ironing the shirts myself im going to have to start wearing a blazer. Steamers are easier far more for giving. Steamers are far more for giving they do it and you dont have to worry about making the wrinkles worse. Where am i going to get a steamer from thats the problem. Amazon. Order it on amazon and hope they can bring it to me. Right, okay. Exactly thanks. When we come back, we are now less than an hour away from what many investors say is the most important economic report of the week, thats the news first as we head to a break, it was obviously a very rough start to the year for stocks but check out the numbers. The dow right now, 29 off of its interday high that was set justback on february 12th. Thats only 50 days ago. The index is on pace for the worst year since the 2008 financial crisis stay tuned well be right back. I knew about the tremors. But when i started seeing things, i didnt know what was happening. So i kept it in. He started believing things that werent true. I knew something was wrong. But i didnt say a word. During the course of their disease around 50 of people with parkinsons may experience hallucinations or delusions. But now, doctors are prescribing nuplazid. The only fda approved medicine. Proven to significantly reduce hallucinations and delusions related to parkinsons. Dont take nuplazid if you are allergic to its ingredients. Nuplazid can increase the risk of death in elderly people with dementiarelated psychosis and is not for treating symptoms unrelated to parkinsons disease. Nuplazid can cause changes in heart rhythm and should not be taken if you have certain abnormal heart rhythms or take other drugs that are known to cause changes in heart rhythm. Tell your doctor about any changes in medicines youre taking. The most common side effects are swelling of the arms and legs and confusion. We spoke up and it made all the difference. Ask your parkinsons specialist about nuplazid. Askshbecause Xfinity Mobilehent ygives you more flexible data. You can choose to share data between lines, mix with unlimited, or switch it up at any time. All on the most reliable wireless network. Which means you can save money without compromising on coverage. Get more flexible data, the most reliable network, and more savings. Plus, get 300 off when you buy a new Samsung Galaxy s20 ultra. Thats simple. Easy. Awesome. Go to xfinitymobile. Com today. Welcome back to squawk box this morning the death toll for coronavirus has surpassed 5,000. The number of cases topping 200,000. Globally approaching 1 million mark spainreported its death toll passed 10,000 as it reported the highest number of deaths in a single day since the outbreak began. Becky . Andrew, thank you very much. Weve been watching the futures this morning after a rough day yesterday for the markets with all three of the major averages down by 4. 4 , you are looking at some green arrows this morning. The dow looks like it would open up 320 points heyer if we were to open right now. Before we get to the open weve got to get through the jobless claims number coming up. Joining us is j. J. Kinehan. Also mike santoli whos cnbc senior markets commentator mike, let me start with you. We know that this is going to be a really rough jobless claims number we saw the number from last week its been pretty clearly telegraphed. If youve been paying any attention at all, this will be a difficult number is there any number that would shock or surprise the markets . Reporter i dont think so, becky. I think essentially the range is so wide in the forecast, theres a lot of technical issues behind backlogs and processing, i think enormous is probably the best guess right now. Its really about next week, believe it or not. You want to see if this is just kind of a rush, a surge thats going to play itself out quickly or if this is now going to somehow settle into some kind of a trend. One of the reasons weekly jobless claims are a valuable economic leader, its a sensitive read on the underlying trend of business and the labor market were getting readings on a shock at this point. Its again about how long this all lasts. I do think one way that the number could be relevant in a more shortterm basis is if it really restarts the discussion of, hey, what congress has passed so far might not be enough that in fact phase 4, whatever that might look like, perhaps has to get going before the markets can settle down a little bit and people can have assurance that theyre cushioned in terms of the real economy as well. J. J. , there may not be a number that really shocks us im sure its going to be a number that takes us a while to get our head around and figure out what it all means and just to absorb it how does that impact trading at this point well, i think, you know, that point, many people are talking 5. 5, 6 million which is amazing, double what we saw last week with that i do think that it will be at that high end of the range because, you know, weve never really covered the selfemployed or independent contractors before now with the cares act those people are going to be covered also i would expect this to be a huge surge number, but because there is such an expectation that this is going to be bad, i dont know that its necessarily going to crush the markets today. We saw last week it wasnt quite a crush that we saw from the number overall i think what we want to look at in the market from what weve seen in the last few days is what we want to continue to see, becky. Weve had bik movg moves. The step to recovery is narrowing the ranges day by day, week by week so we can get into something thats more predictable. As this number comes out, yeah, if you look at what the s p 500 what the Options Market is telling us about the s p 500, we should expect a 62 range between now and tomorrow on the close. So just, you know, that alone tells you that this volatility is going to continue, but i dont think this number is necessarily a market crusher. I guess thats a good point all of life is a relativity. There is a Silver Lining were not limit up and limit down j. J. , where is the vix how do you think volatility is going to go from here . Yeah. You know, vix trading about 54 right now, becky, and down a little bit overnight obviously as the market rallied. But theres no reason to think its going to go away right away thats kind of my point overall is that if you look at whats going on right now, again, these are huge ranges. Dont get me wrong you dont get out of these right away for those looking for a bullish pace, i find it hard to believe we have a v recovery if they said tomorrow all is good, coronavirus is done, you can go back to work, i dont think people are necessarily hopping on planes, hopping on cruise ships immediately you had a guest on earlier talking about may limit people in conference rooms, et cetera this is going to take a while to get going. That to me makes it very difficult for us to get a vshaped recovery. Plus the number two sector in the s p 500 financials are taking the one, two punch of businesses slowing down and rates being low without that sector having a chance to get going. It will be hard to be in that vshaped recovery. Thats why i want to look for narrower, narrower ranges. Heres the resistance level. People are not saying that now because its too unpredictable j. J. , where the heck are you . You look like youre at the top of the sears tower or something. Youre above all the clouds . Im actually at home. Its the weirdest cloud pattern youve ever seen were kind of ground level its crazy im up a little higher here. Or youre in the penthouse, one or the other mike, youre a market historian. Lets talk about what the markets going to be facing over the next couple of weeks we know the numbers are going to be bad we know we are going to continue to see both the number of cases pile up and the number of deaths rise in this country how would you kind of look back historically and see how the market might perform in a situation like that . Reporter you know, i wish there was a more kind of creative metaphor than looking back at 2008, but i do think in the sense of the shock of not knowing exactly how the system is going to absorb this pressure is relevant. What that really means is its kind of this interplay between the market throwing a tantrum, policy makers responding, businesses responding, everyone trying to raise cash and sit on a little more liquidity. I do think thats probably where we are j. J. s talking about the vix we peaked in the vix around 80 a week ago monday. Thats very plausibly the peak of the absolute concentrated intense forced selling type moment that we saw where maybe the majority of stocks hit their lows what we saw after that is a couple of weeks of nervous, choppy, overall indexes cant get out of their way carve out a range. You have rallies and get distance from the lows its really about illiguidity. Peoples response happening or not happening. Mike, j. J. , thank you both. Good to see you. Thanks, becky coming up, senator dick durbin on how last weeks 3 trilliontilus ll smubi is going to play out in the economy well be right back. That the world needs. But right now, the world needs all the good that we can do. To all of our employees and everyone working to keep america strong, thank you. Breaking news. Stocks set for a rebound the futures this morning are indicated up youre talking thedow futures up by almost 350 points after yesterdays big losses to kick off the Second Quarter. Also on the rebound this morning, oil crude rising double digits after President Trump expresses optimism that russia and saudi arabia can end their price war. Were just 30 minutes away from one of the big windows, the best window well get this week just in how much the economy is suffering. New jobless number expected in the millions for the second week in a row cnbcs coverage of the pandemic and the market response continues right now. Good mornings. Im joe kernen this time i know im with becky quick and Andrew Ross Sorkin u. S. Equity futures have moved a little bit higher again. We are below 300 below up 300 now were up 350 and change. Been in kind of a range all morning long in the premarket session. Treasury yields most recently saw were at. 58 . Andrew okay. We are going to start this hour with a closer look at how the coronavirus is spreading across the country. In illinois the governor is extending a stayathome order through the end of april while the states hospitals plead for more supplies. Outside of new york, illinois now one of the hardest hit states with roughly 7,000 known infections and more than 100 deaths also joining us right now on the phone to talk about this is illinois senator richard durbin. Hes also the democratic whip. Good morning, senator. Good morning. Let me ask you, senator, where are you located right now . Im in my home in springfield with my wife were doing what were being instructed to do across america, stay at home, and were trying our darndest to stop what is a raging infection in the country and certainly in our state we anticipate the numbers that we had just a day ago are likely to triple in terms of the number of infections by next week so this is a critical moment. We are nearing that time where if we can socall flatten the curve, we mabrey this to an end sooner rather than later. Senator, just so i understand, are you of the view that your hospitals and medical care professionals are prepared and have enough stuff or not let me tell you, first my heart goes out to every single one of them and our First Responders who are risking their lives every single day for us. No, im afraid we are not where we need to be. I have worked with the governor, the department of defense has come in and put in a 3,000 bed hospital facility at mccormick place, convention Gathering Place in chicago we are begging, pleading, scratching around in every way, shape or form to bring in the protective equipment that we need i spoke to the governor a couple of days ago and he said to me, i feel like a shipping clerk im calling the ceos of Major Airlines and begging them for cargo planes from china to bring in this equipment. Our National Stockpile is near depletion at this point. We need to replenish it desperately in large numbers illinois may be next, i hope it isnt, after new york, but it may be next. Were going to do our darndest to bring in everything we need to protect our health care workers. Senator, one of the Big Questions everybody across the country has is how long this goes on for. Not just because of the health crisis, which is clearly a crisis, but to the extent that it becomes a financial crisis . What is the thinking with your peers about the window, about the duration i think investors and everybody else, Small Businesses, theyre all trying to figure that out and some people look at new york but then you start seeing hot spots like chicago or miami or other places which will have their own curve and they start thinking maybe this can go on longer than maybe they had anticipated. Whats your expectation . First let me tell you, i hope the politician class, im part of it, will show a little humility here and defer to the people who are experts, experts in the treatment of those who are infected to be hon snes honest, now that it started in china and china is showing that people are gathering in public in smaller groups the advice ive received or watched and listened to so far suggests that were naive to believe this is going to end in two weeks or four weeks. Its going to take longer. We may find ourselves gradually moving back into normalcy, but it isnt going to be the open day baseball game. Senator, if this does take longer, the question is does the 2 trillion stimulus package thats now in the books, is that going to be enough and if it isnt, are you prepared to vote in favor of more well, let me tell you, im prepared to vote for more, period no ifs, ands, buts about it. When were in a war, were in it to win it. We spend whatever is necessary we dont say were going to budget 2 trillion for this war, lets see how it turns out we stay there to win what were dealing with here, the prospect of 100,000 people losing their lives to this infection in america is more than double the amount that we lost in vietnamin that long, long bloody war. So in terms of fighting this war to victory, we will. This senator is going to be voting for the money thats needed for our health care as well as the working families let me ask you a question about bailouts we are in the midst of bailing out the Airline Industry you have a Major Airline career in your home state there are two views on this. One is its not the airlines fault, the government is doing this everybody should be bailed out, not just the employees, also the shareholders theres another view which is you can keep the airline running, keep the planes in the air, keep the employees up on the payroll but you dont necessarily need to save the shareholders whats your view i can tell you my view is first and foremost, im worried about the workers, pilots, flight attendants, people in charge of maintenance. All of these people have just been devastated by whats happened over the past several weeks. Ive been a passenger in the last couple of weeks people arent coming out to fly. You can understand why its not smart from a health point of view. Its a major part of the industry not just in illinois but across the nation. We tried with this c. A. R. E. S. Bill, with the rescue bill, 2 trillion rescue bill, to be there for airlines and they want to see their way through this and come out on the other side in a positive way with the future no, i wouldnt confine it to airlines but ill tell you whether that shareholder youre referring to is a proprietor whos got a Family Restaurant theyve had in the family for 20 years, iwant to do my darndest to make sure theyre back in business when this comes to an end. I understand that but, senator, there will be recriminations and finger pointing when this is all over the question im asking you is whether shareholders of airlines should be rescued in this case and also whether there should be Strings Attached to these rescue efforts. There was a report just yesterday that showed that the airlines had been asked repeatedly for the past decade to actually have Contact Information for all passengers so that if there was a pandemic like this, that you could do tracing and they not only resisted but lobbied against that over and over again, including in this most recent bill and so my question to you is when the public looks back at this and says, what did you do, senator, to actually change the dynamic, do you believe by rescuing them with no Strings Attached that you have done that can you justify that to your to the taxpayers and to the citizens of this country i think you put four words in there that are significant and not necessarily accurate, with no Strings Attached. Weve attached a lot of strings in terms of how this money is going to be spent and how the airlines are going to conduct their business after we see an end to this. Keep in mind the people in this business believe it will be a matter of 12 months, 18 months, maybe longer before airlines return to where they once were these stock prices have taken a beaten i dont think theres any rescue thats come through for the shareholders yet lets talk about the strength of the american public. If we dont stand up and fight for them large and small that need to be back in business, then well return to an empty battlefield where we can declare victory but hold on senator, the shareholders of the airlines will be rescued meanwhile, the shareholders of Small Businesses, oftentimes the proprietors, are not i disagree with you. Lets be clear about whats happening here lets be clear too. Youve got to understand that the rubio carden approach, a bipartisan agreement that they put together over weeks of hard work has been established to provide forgiven loans to Small Businesses across america. That is the right thing to do so they can maintain payroll, pay the benefits for their employees, pay the utility, rent, be there on the other side to say when so many restaurants go out of business when so many restaurants senator, restaurants, hotel companies, there will be bankruptcies theyre going to its going to be littered with bankruptcies the shareholders are going to be wiped out. The airline shareholders will not. Im trying to understand how you make that distinction . Frankly, we havent made the distinction. Weve said Small Businesses and Large Businesses alike have a fighting chance. You shall right, at the end of the day some will not but dammit were going to do our very best to get the business of america back in business and in terms of Small Businesses and workers and large corporations, some of them might not make it. I know that. Thats a reality but were doing our best on a bipartisan basis to be there senator, in terms of the airlines, just what theyre given and what theyre granted, i believe its up to the discretion of the treasury secretary to decide if theyre handing out additional loans, if the United States government will be a shareholder in companies as a result. If theyll take any sort of position in the company. Wall street journal had an editorial piece, they raised the question about whether or not if the government does take a stake, obviously you want be to protect the workers, you want to make sure that the taxpayer gets a return if there is some sort of loan thats been given out that they get to share in the up side of that as well but the journal raised the question about whether or not that should be a silent stake. If you are suddenly allowing any sort of political weighing in to say what happens next with the airlines after that, that could be a very different situation. How would you come down on that . Again, i think its the discretion of the treasury secretary, but if you got a say in it, what would you think the government should be doing in terms of taking a stake and whether thats a stake that has a voter as a silent vote well, lets take history as a guide here when president obama faced the recession and decided we need a stimulus package, one of the things along the way, i cant remember the exact editorial position of the wall street journal, one of the questions was would we step in and save the Automobile Industry in the United States or let them all go bankrupt the president made a decision and were stepping in. Theres too much at stake in terms of jobs, in terms of the future of our economy. Im not sure what the mechanism is, whether it means the government will take a share in the future to make sure these corporations return. I dont think theres any blame on our companies today that came back in business and have done well for ourselves, their workers, the american economy. From my point of view, lets do what it takes to get the economy back on their feet the people establish the economy that creates jobs. Im not for this kind of pure approach which says government hands off. Lets see what happens lets toss the cards on the table and see who wins i dont buy that when we pass this 2. 2 trillion bill with an overwhelming bipartisan vote, we said were going to step in, democrats and republicans, do what it takes. Okay. Well, senator durbin, we appreciate your time and your perspective this morning always appreciate the conversation and even the debate thank you so very much and thank you for all that youve been doing for the country throughout these past couple weeks. Good luck. Okay. Keep on squawking. Thanks. When we come back this morning, innovation and the fight against the coronavirus. Well be joined by New York Hospital ceo Whose Organization is 3d printing face shields and researching hooking up two patients to a single ventilator. Stay tuned, well be rightac bk. Confirmed coronavirus cases in the u. S. Have topped 216,000 with more than 5,000 deaths. Joining us now, carol gomes. Ceo of Stoneybrook University hospital on new yorks long island thank you for joining us this morning. We appreciate it last time i think the last update was that the hospital had roughly 70 covid19 patients out of i think 624 beds. Can you update us on that, ms. Gomes . Yes sure, were well over that number were much closer to the 200 number with an additional nearly 200 puis or persons under investigation, meaning specifically that they are in the process of being tested. So weve seen a significant surge in the number of positive cases, and in addition, weve also increased our capacity well beyond that 624. As youve probably heard, the governor of new york has requested for all ceos at New York Hospitals to increase Surge Capacity by 100 , which means we would have to double our beds. And weve been actively engaged in the process of expanding our bed capacity over the last three weeks with a continuation of that process over the next several weeks ahead of us. When do you expect the apex, what the governor has indicated . Is that what you are seeing . How would you characterize the state of how everyones handling this, all of your medical professionals, the amount of equipment they have . How chaotic is it at this point . Is it still prior to the apex youre still doing pretty well in most respects well, theres no doubt about it that were being stretched in terms of our labor pool, in terms of our capacity. These are very ill patients that require intubation and ventilation and so it would be very safe to say that we are pushing the limit in terms of our resources, but were steadily focused on our plan to increase capacity. Our goal is to increase to 235 intensive care beds from a much lower number of 65 so its putting stress on the system for sure. And in terms of our staff, they are coming to work stoney brook medicine, individuals, Health Care Members of our team are so laser focused on the mission to provide the best care possible with the resources we have. Yes, it is true that there are difficulties in terms of our supply chain activities, but we are actively engaged in doing everything humanly possible within our control to obtain the necessary resources and supplies to keep not only our patients safe but also our Team Members Safe and if in terms of the increase in covid positive patients, any slowing in that at all in terms of the increase do you foresee yes. Having two patients on a single ventilator . That has not happened yet but its something that you would imagine that will be something youd do at stoney brook yes we are basically preparing for the worst and hoping for the best so weve been a bit ahead of the curve in terms of the preparation of the sharing of vents. Our respiratory therapy team has worked very closely with Biomedical Engineering at Stony Brook University we are really tapping the potential and the level of research innovation, creativity here at Stony Brook University and stoney brook medicine, tapping into every conceivable resource we have to stay ahead of the curve i apologize. I didnt answer your question about the apex so weve heard on numerous occasions at various press conferences and even within our own teams statisticians that the apex may be coming in 7 to 14 days, in 14 to 21 days. I heard a model yesterday where it may be 14 to 45 days. So we are seeing an escalation in cases and we are seeing an increased number of patients being intubated more readily closer to our Emergency Department than we really wish to see so we are seeing this escalation there is just no way to know honestly when this apex will arrive but, again, the stoney brook Medicine Team is laser focused on ensuring that this surge plan is active, ensuring that were focused, ensuring that were hitting the targets and goals on a weekly basis to accommodate the surge. Last question have any doctors at stoney brook administered any of these therapeutics, whether its the recommemdesivir or hydroxychloroquine have you asked for any we do have it were working very closely with our pharmacy department, with our Antimicrobial Stewardship Team and with various Infectious Disease physicians as well as our icu physicians to ensure that we are utilizing evidencebased literature to support treatment and using appropriate medical guidelines for such treatment we also are engaged in various Clinical Trials and protocols to provide whatever treatment or farm soform ma suit particular calls. You had trouble finding words to thank the medical professionals. We keep trying but let everyone know how much its appreciated it goes beyond the pale. Thank you. Thank you thank you so much. Youre welcome. Thank you okay when we come back on squawk box this morning, the latest Real Time Data on how the coronavirus is straining the u. S. Economy analysts expecting 3. 1 million new jobless claims after last weeks 3. 3 million we have Team Coverage of the data and then reaction from reaction from former fed chairman daniel tarullo. Check out the price of crude oil. Its moving up 11 up President Trump expects russia and saudi arabia to reach a deal the oil majors getting a big boost across the board, and all of that putting the dow and s p in the green on the futures this morning. Were right back aft ts. Erhi still to come this morning, initial jobless claims last week as the coronavirus was slamming wall street. Expected between 3. 5 million and 6 million new filings. Well have the itansnt analysis when we come right back. Shouldnt you pay less when you use less data . Now you can. Because Xfinity Mobile gives you more flexible data. You can choose to share data between lines, mix with unlimited, or switch it up at any time. All on the most reliable wireless network. Which means you can save money without compromising on coverage. Get more flexible data, the most reliable network, and more savings. Plus, get 300 off when you buy a new Samsung Galaxy s20 ultra. Thats simple. Easy. Awesome. Go to xfinitymobile. Com today. Welcome back to cnbc special coverage of the pandemic and the markets. We are just a few seconds away from the latest jobless claim numbers. Expecting 3. 1 million initial claims because of layoffs from the coronavirus. Last week remember we saw a record 3. 3 million filings this morning we have Team Coverage of this breaking data were joined by our own Rick Santelli, Steve Liesman and mike santoli. Were looking at the dow opening up at 280 points also been keeping track of the 10year to see where thats standing right now, too. Yield last i looked was sitting at 0. 591 . Lets get over to Rick Santelli. Rick reporter the survey says, nothing at this point. Im still waiting. There it is. 6. 6 million. So 6. 648 to be exact so 6,648,000, by far the biggest ever, of course, and continuing claims moved from 1. 8 million to 3. 029. So 3,029,000 that is on its way up obviously. If we look back towards the credit crisis, continuing claims ended up getting close to 7 million. I believe it was 6. 6 million and there are revisions to our last look. That 3. 283 million initial claims moved up just a smidge to 3,307,000 and ironically continuing claims moved down a bit to 1. 784 million those revisions really dont mean much. How did the bond market react . I think this is the most telling number of all. Its still at 58 so no matter how many initial jobless claims were fearful of or the big drop in jobs that were fearful of or the big rise in unemployment were fearful of, i will go back to my analogy. If you take all of the chicago baseball cubs bats away, their averages will go to zero we shouldnt dwell on that what we should dwell on is how were dealing with this on the Human Element and what it means on the back side and turning the big switch back on for the economy. Joe, back to you thanks, rick. In the old days i might have made a joke about the cubs but, number one, theyre much better and i just dont think its appropriate. Rick, stay right there lets bring Steve Liesman in and mike santoli i see what ricks saying, steve. I remember people had an eyebrow raised when secretary mnuchin said numbers like this arent unexpected but 6 just is a number that 5 was the highest we saw in terms of even estimates, wasnt it, liesman . Reporter yeah. Goldman was one of the closest estimates i saw. I saw another academic paper that suggested it could be as high as this cue becky here, a, some success at the state bureaucracy level of processing these claims this could be a big problem. This is what the jobless claims program is all about it is the first safety net we have and the idea that people are getting claims is a good things we want to be able to help people do that i dont think we get under 4 enough the spread of the disease would inevitably be worse if we didnt do this. Thats one good thing here the other thing im looking for, i dont have it yet, im trying to get the statebystate. Yeah, new york is high there are 366,000 for new york my guess is that theres going to be several million more coming from new york let me just look at california while this is here now california is well ahead they have 878,000. Theyre doing a better job in california my guess is that whats happening at the state jobless claims level here is that theyre also hurt by the idea they have people with the virus trying to stay healthy themselves that could impinge their ability. Michigan is 311,000. Those are the big states right there, and new jersey would be another one, 205 so the bad news the other side of the Silver Lining is the cloud is very large. There is more to come here i would not be surprised to see several million more and were talking about an Unemployment Rate, folks, that could be already in the double digits if not approaching that if i just layer in the continuing claims plus the 6 today plus the additional unemployment claims im sorry, additional unemployed, we could be near 10 already. Hey, steve, im with you on that i think there is a Silver Lining because its not news to us that there are all these people who need to file for unemployment. Reporter right. Its good news that the states are processing that i agree with you 100 . Reporter the question is whether this sba Program Works for keeping close or keeping people employed and clornt they get unemployed and theyre available to come back to work when this returns with the question of when it happens and whether or not that disease or, sorry, the spread of the virus, the percent testing positive, whether that seems to be cresting at any point in time bring in mike santoli and Rick Santelli continues with us. Mike santoli, the futures are off their best levels. It seemed to coincide with that number that was a pretty big number that probably may not have been in the may not have been expected even to that extent, i guess. Reporter no. Obviously theres still sticker shock at these levels. 10 million new jobless claims in two weeks. The market has never dealt with this investors, consumers have never dealt with it. Front loading the impairment recession in a few weeks time it gets right back to how long this period lasts. Essentially has every business already had that working its way through the claims system and then how long before we reupdate again. Whats the policy response is it enough along the way i do think thats where the debate is going to move to in terms of, you know, obviously you have the enhanced Unemployment Benefits and things like that, but just exactly what it means as we have these economists on wall street trying to revise their gdp estimates for the next three quarters. The market goes down 35 in a Straight Line trying to figure out if thats enough i dont know if its going to give you a firm answer on that with these numbers. Reporter hey, mike. Santelli . Reporter yeah. You know, the way i look at this is the Interest Rate side, 58 basis points unchanged, i know markets arent going to give us the insight that they once did, but heres the insight that the 10year is giving me 54 basis points the low alltime close. 31 basis points was the interday low. Both made on march 9th you want to remember those numbers, joe if we start to challenge the new alltime low close on the long end or the interday, this isnt a good thing i know many of us have been conditioned. Lower Interest Rates are a good thing. They change the numbers from the stock market none of that is going to matter. It is not a good sign to see new historic lows, especially on the long end even the complexion in the yield curve, how much have we learned. At a time a year ago, an inversion was considered horrible then we got it really steep, but the way we ended up getting it steep was way worse than the fears of a recession theres so many more moving parts to this. Consider this, europe certainly doesnt have a better handle on this and we hope they do and we hope italy gets all of this taken care of in a better fashion, but if you look at the Interest Rates there with respect to the distance between tens in europe and the tens in the u. S. , theyre the closest theyve been in six years and two months thats important to look at as well all of these will have policy implications and huge implications on the back side of this when all of these economies try to ramp up again. Rick santelli, thank you. Mike santoli, thank you as well. Also, Steve Liesman. Becky, i think youve got a special guest for us coming up right now as well. Thats right, joe joining us now for a closer look at how coronavirus is impacting u. S. Economy, lets welcome Daniel Turullo hes a harvard law professor thank you for being with us. Governor tarullo what do you think of the numbers we just saw . 6. 6 million new additional jobless claims after the 3. 3 we saw last week. Thats an incredible number. Becky, my first reaction was back in early 2009 when we were seeing 600,000 increase in unemployment, jobless claims rather than unemployment, but when you see numbers that are of that order of magnitude, it becomes how clear a steep of a decline we are suffering theres no precedent thinking about this a number of your commentators and guests have said that over the past few minutes i think what it does is to reinforce the senseof a lot of people that the prospect of a vshaped motion here with going down rapidly and then coming up rapidly may unfortunately not turn out to be what we see and instead will face a much tougher road back. Why do you think that is . How do you start to think through the damage that were seeing at this point well, obviously nobody knows and the uncertainty is something that everybody in markets and government is emphasizing, but first as i said a moment ago, there really is no precedent for essentially shutting down sectors of the economy with the attendant damage that may be harder to undo its not like laying off 1 4 of your work force because revenue has dropped by a quarter this is going to zero revenue. Second, i think the possibility if not the probability that were going to have recurring preventive measures, such as some form of social distancing which will mean hitting the brakes, certainly not we hope the way its being done nationwide right now, but hitting the brakes in certain areas, certain regions, certain sectors perhaps for some time to come third, the monetary and fiscal policy instruments that are available to us are going to be stretched. They are already being stretched to the limit and, thus, they may be less successful not unsuccessful, but less successful in effecting a quick bounce back. And finally theres the question as to whether some of our longerterm trends in the economy, such as declining productivity, will be accelerated by this kind of shock. Youll recall after the great financial crisis when people kept referring to headwinds that were stopping the economy from getting back to precrisis trend growth, and after a while people realized maybe they werent headwinds that were going to abate but it was an indefinite decrease in Growth Potential there may be Something Like that here as well so, again, i wouldnt i wouldnt argue strongly that the likely outcome is going to be a long recovery but its something resembling a vshaped recovery. The declining productivity, third derivative stuff, thats a really good point. Productivity is going to be a challenge, i would assume. Yeah, it will be a challenge. Youre quite right to say its a continuing problem and its not something that people can or should be focusing on now. People now should be focusing on the best possible response in human terms and in health terms and in economic terms. I mention that only as a contributing reason why the recovery may be more disappointing than at least initially a lot of analysts seem to think it would be Steve Liesman has a question as well. Steve . Reporter thanks, becky dan, in your last incarnation at the fed you were involved in all of the banking regulations many of the big banks have voluntarily stopped share buybacks should the fed have a blanket order on blanket buybacks and should it end blanket dividends . For the cicar banks, that is to say the larger banks, the ones over 100 billion that are stress tested, i think the answer is yes. I mean, its its a good thing that going into this crisis the banks in the United States are a source of strength rather than a source of vulnerability, but as weve all been emphasizing, theres enormous uncertainty here as to how much deeper and longer this whats going to be a serious recession at best is going to be and its right out of the playbook really at this point that you would have banks husband their capital. You know, about 1 3 of the capital distributed by the larger banks last year was in the form of dividends, and, again, we hope that its not going to be needed, that capital, to absorb losses and to increase Balance Sheets, but it may be and i think its best to do it now while the banks are still in a position of strength, precisely so that it doesnt send a signal about any one bank or the industry being collectively weak. And so i think it is important the fed has the authority to do it and as i say, its right out of the playbook that people try to write after the crisis when some banks were giving dividends in 2008. Dan, without getting too much into the weeds of bank regulation, do you think the fed should also ease up on some of the capital and leverage ratios that would allow the banks to play a bigger role now we know they did the supplementary ratio. Without getting into the weeds here, is it possible for the fed and the Bank Regulators to ease up on those regulations that would allow the banks to play a bigger role in easing the strains on in the credit markets without the fed having to do more it may well be, steve i mean, the feds Balance Sheet obviously is growing enormously, and that means the quantity of reserves in the economy is growing enormously and, thus, bank Balance Sheets would be expected to grow the question though i think is how one does it, and i think to the degree possible one would want to relieve provide relief on things like the leverage ratio or the liquidity coverage ratio in a way that is tied directly to the fed programs, the fed facilities, the kinds of mechanisms that it is using and that will both reemphasize the temporary quality of deviation so that you have debates about longterm policy when things are calmer and will provide the needed relief but at the same time i come back to the point of a moment ago, you need to make sure the banks actually do have enough capital during this period so i would have packaged these things i would is r have said, yes, we he may need some relieve precisely because of this. Theyll provide more assurance rather than external lending, but lets make sure the banks are keeping their capital in the event that this turns out to be closer to the tail than to the model expectations governor tarullo, you do think that the stress test itself should be put off this is enough of a stress test that were seeing. Yeah, becky, there are reasonable arguments on both sides when it comes to the stress test, but that is continuing it now shows that, yes, its regular and we do it, but i think on balance i would defer it i would defer it because the scenario thats being used now is obviously not going to approximate even closely what the banks are actually going to go through its not the same kind of stress probably not the same level of stress i think it would be a good thing for the risk managers at the banks to be thinking very hard about this set of stresses and crises rather than worrying about whether the stress test is going to come out a particular way based on the old on the scenario so, yeah, on balance i would delay it and have both the people at the fed and in the banks who are focused like a laser beam on the problems that may be encountered as a result of what were going through right now. Keep the capital in the banks and then later in the year once hopefully things have calmed a bit return to the stress test. Maybe they want to use the same scenario if things have really calmed down. Maybe a different one. Governor tarullo, want to thank you for your time today. Its been good talking to you. By the way, also want to mention today at 10 30 a. M. Eastern time, dont mess an exclusive interview with the dallas fed president , Andrew Kaplan andrew. When we return, jim cramer is going to join us with his take on the early actions this morning. Futures now, dow up 50 points. S p 500 up 5 points. Nasdaq has turned marginally in the red. Also an Important Note about tackling the unprecedented challenges affecting the work force right now. You can join the cnbc work leadership and management amid crisis live stream taking place at 12 p. M. Eastern time, 9 pacific. Im going to be speaking with thrives arianna huffington. And former ceo of cisco, John Chambers joining us, and so much more to learn about it and sign up you can go to cnbcevents. Com work. You dont want to miss it. Well be right back. Lets get to cnbc headquarters where jim cramer joins us now we had oil up w i guess that helped a little with dow initially, but the claims number was just well above what even the pez mist pessimists were l, and were up 50 points on the dow. Whats on your mind . The overnight people were totally keen that the big meeting with the president , with the oil execs and maybe hes going to try to resolve the situation with the saudis and russians remember, theres a curious bounce between Energy Independence and the notion he does like lower gasoline prices. I have to tell you, joe, its about unemployment, about reverberation. Were in the little gap where youre not able to get the checks yet if youre a Small Business person, but its a Great Program. I think were all kind of confused at the importance of the future, because so Many Companies are spending guidance, its really difficult to try to figure out what we could earn in the coming months. I know thats i dont want to conflate life and death with what theyre going to learn, but everyone is suspending guidance. Maybe we get to a worth where were like berkshire hathaway, no one puts out fwied anguidanc theyll have more time to work maybe thats a good thing. Guidance is, you know, it just doesnt help. Right its a moot point exactly a waste of time right now. I would rather spend much more time trying to figure out how companies are doing so much and we have to Start Talking about this so much to help situate business is different this time its not how many people you can fire quickly, its how many people you can keep on and how you can help people. I think its a great thing we dont talk about enough. Its really good all right, jim, well be watching in about seven minutes. Thank you by my calculations. Thank you. Becky. Joe, thanks when we come back, were going to get you ready for todays trading with market historian sam stoval, and dont mi didssav solomon. Stay tuned well be right back. What i love most about being a scientist at 3m is that im part of a community of problem solvers. We make ideas grow. From an everyday solution. To one that can take on a bigger challenge. We are solving problems that improve lives. Welcome back to squawk box. We have news to bring you. You have to look at this stock chart right here luck and coffee, we have talked about it a lot on this programover the years. Theyre now plunging after the company said an independent special committee had found misconduct by its coo and several employees. Questions about fabricating certain transactions from q2 to q4 of 2019 that may have totaled roughly 310 million, just looking at some of the Currency Conversions there. David faber also tweeting about it this morning. Youre looking at that stock down 84 we had the coo, guys, on our show right around the ipo. In the meantime, in the First Quarter of this year, we should tell you that trillions, thats with a t of dollars were lost in terms of market caps, but our next guest says according to history, whats already a bear market could become a mega meltdown joining us is sam stovall, chief investment strategist add cfra good morning to you, sam that does not sound very optimistic, sam. Morning, andrew well, no, i look to history for guidance, but obviously, its a guide and not gospel so we have to sort of prepare ourselves mentally for that possibility. When you look to the direction of earnings right now, i mean, when you look to the gdp or earnings, were essentially in a fundamentals freefall. We really just dont know where the bottom is. If you look to history as a guide, it basically says earnings 10 to decline by about 10 in recessions. Pe multiples revert to about 12 times. So the implication therefore is from those two metrics we could see the s p below the 1800 level, which would replicate a bear market similar to what we saw in the early 2000s and we also got a confirmation from the first three months of this year being negative and historically, that has pointed to a fullyear decline averagin close to 15 okay, so we have had people like Muhammad Alarian say if you have cash on the sidelines, hold, dont buy anything yet, because he still thinks theres more challenging times ahead it sounds like youre saying the same thing we hardly ever talk about it, when to sell, especially in a market thats down already if youre in the market, would you suggest that typically, thats always been a very dangerous thing to do but if youre expecting something much worse right i have a hard time telling people when to sell. Traditionally, what i find is that, yes, you can look to things like the 17week moving average and the 43week moving average, mark arbiter, the former technician at s p, used to always look to that as a guide to say that we could have harder times ahead, and were in that mode right now. And then looking at when to actually buy back in i find that the market can be a very good indicator. I look at a rolling 15day intraday spread. And we have after we have seen a peak in that volatility, then about a month later, we find that the bottom has been put into place so right now, i would tend to say yes, we probably still have more Downside Potential at this point. But whether i want to really tell somebody to reverse their portfolio, especially if they have lower basis costs and have a big tax bill at the end of the year, i would rather look for buying opportunities than try to catch a falling knife. Okay. Thank you so much for spending time with us this morning. Appreciate it, and hope to talk to you again very soon thanks, andrew. Okay. Andrew, joe, i will see you guys back here tomorrow thank you, everybody, for joining us today cnbcs special coverage continues right now. Good thursday morning welcome to squawk on the street. Im Carl Quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber coming to you live were coming off the worst day in about two weeks futures do trim their gains as jobless claims come in 6. 6 million. A staggering record, beyond precedent. Theres plenty to watch, including boeing, disney, zoom, starbucks, and oil, jim, which was set for its best day in about three weeks on the president s comments about the russians and had saudis. I know you were discussing that a couple moments ago look, i think theres a sense that somehow you get a bunch of Oil Executives with the president , the president then calls saudi arabia and calls the ru