Of factors involved in that. These are all projections. Generally because of the demographics and the changes in the way we are an aging population in the fact we pay a lot in terms ofs medicare and Social Security benefits will continue to grow. As a consequence along with paying the interest on accumulated debt itself means that we would be looking at the possibility of the debt to what we call debt to level of the government growing from where it is today which is at a historic high around 78 percent of gdp well up into the 100 a 150 percent over the next 30 t 40 years. 144 percent by 2049 or so. Right. Thats historically very high of course. We like to think that will not happen but if it should happen it certainly is something unprecedented in terms of the countrys history. If you had to make a list of the drivers of this debt what would you put on top of the list . I would say in the near term if the entitlement, the spending we have created for particularly dealing with the aging population. Social security benefits, medicare benefits, those are the major drivers of our spending going out into the future. The other factor that is involved is always the flipside is the revenue. That is being met if you are trying to control the debt and deficits you have to balance it with the amount of resources you are taking in. Revenues are important too. They are not going as fast of spending you will have abits a combination of spending and major entitlement programs and also the rate of growth and rorevenues and growth of the economy. Is there a way to factor in the tax cuts passed by republicans into these final numbers . Or the projected numbers. These are projected numbers. In fact, quite frankly, the projections that the Congressional Budget Office and others make assume current law for the taxes in fact, to 2025 the tax bill that republicans passed back in 2017 drops back down. Its a situation in which those are carried onto the future. Jeff is here to have a conversation taking look at debt in the United States. If you want to ask questions you can call him at 2027488000 for democrats ab 2027488000 one for republicans and ab 2027488000 the difficulty we face as deficit being completely honest is that i sort of feel like the guy standing on the corner with a sign saying the end is nigh. Sooner or later im going to be right. But im not sure if its now. Iwe been saying the deficits been a problem since the 1980s. And never forget i was first year i was in the house one of the old bowls, walked up and we were walking to work one day and he laughs and says its always fun to see the cycle repeated itself when the budget talks come back. He said welcome back. You are here a little bit in the 80s, little bit in the 90s, i want you to know you will be gone in a little bit and i will still be here. I dont spend that money. You get that. And im not sure how fashionable fiscal conservative is him is fiscal conservatives him is right now and believe that the president believes it and wishes that we have more control over the spending but it takes two to tango and its not a dance party. What you think about those comments . I think hes absolutely correct its not a top priority the American Public or Congress Today both republicans and democrats in terms of debt or deficits. It is something that you say applies on both houses. The t difficulty is as millenni has pointed out that you dont know when the last drop into the test tube will turn blue and you will have a fiscal crisis stop we used to refer to it as debt and deficits being Something Like the termites under the front porch. They are there, they are eating away and long term someday you will step out on the porch and fall through. The difficulty with it from my perspective is one that has worked at this for a long time its a simple fact that it is a tax on future generations. Its reducing the level of what i would say Living Standard for our children and grandchildren as we accumulate more debt and deficits Going Forward. It may not have an immediate effect but at some point in the future, its not popular right now to talk about debt and deficits but it is something i think in the long term future of this country something we have to deal with. A quick reminder for folks at home the difference between debt and deficit. Good question. Deficits are the annual, differences between spending and our revenues the accumulation of those debt deficits over the history of the country from the beginning of the republic is the accumulated debt. D,today we have accumulated fro the beginning of the republic today any debt deficit or debt of nearly 22 trillion annual deficit is closer to about 1 trillion this year. Democrats starting us off this is michael from grand rapids for guest hoagland. Go ahead, your first thought. The debt, you mentioned the social programs, Social Security, cutting social programs. We spent several times more than any of the country in the world and our military buildup beware of the military Industrial Complex what effect would it have if we would think about what we are doing with our military . Not enough soldiers to really serve in the military. Etc. , etc. First of all, in terms of our federal spending for national security, which is part of the constitution and protection of our country probably about 15 percent, 12 to 15 percent of total spending whereas the total number of entitlement and talked about if you add in paying the interest which is a real entitlement. It has to be paid. Talking about 70 . There is a difference here and you could reduce defense spending. Its not something thats popular right tnow. The president has asked for an increase in defense spending. As well as there seems to be consensus in the congress that there should be an increase in defense spending relative to where we are today. Im not disagreeing with you. Im not suggesting we shouldnt look for finding where there is a waste abuse or whatever. Unnecessary spending both in defense and spnondefense programs but after having said that, there is still a major rs drivers to spending will be on the entitlement side. From vents in florida. Independent line. How are you doing today . Good morning. Thank you. I just wanted to say i keep hearing medicare, medicare and Social Security but those are things people paid into. You never hear anything in about these Pension Plans that will put in the 80s when people were getting a certain percentage but now the salaries have gone up so high and these people get free medical, free dental, free this, free that, for them and their family while they are serving. Nobody ever talks about what thats doing to the debt. Its basically ruined the bond industry, the Municipal Bond industry. City pensions, state pensions have destroyed these states bond market. You never hear anything either about the total welfare bill. Which is about 800 billion plus every year. That these politicians just get away and that doesnt include the empowerment zones they put in the city that they tried to do over and over again and its always turned out to be a failure. Will stop you there only because you little put a lock for the guest author. In terms of the pensions you are talking about these are private pensions are state and local pensions, they are not part of the federal government bookkeeping if youd like in that sense, when i talk about Public Pensions im referring in the federal budget to those associated with Social Security. Yes it will Service Military retirement pensions but i think the type of pensions you are referring to is that the state and local level specifically. Im back in to get into erthe weeds too far but in terms of 800 billion in spending for welfare programs at the little bit of an overstatement unless we add in what is done at the state and local level. Much less of that is being spent here at the federal level for welfare programs. I think the federal Food Stamp Program as an example or snap program is probably less than 80 billion annually. A viewer of twitter says mr. Hoagland can you name any Insurance Program that has never raised their premium. Social security has a i cant identify any Insurance Company that has not raised premiums over the last weather many years. But i want to come back to this, this is always very dicey and i understand the sensitivities to it. The Social Security trust fund is a trust fund where we are paying in and those who are working and paying in the payroll taxes and there are benefits going out. As of today that balance between whats in the trust fund and whats being paid out will exhaust in the year 2035 i believe it is. From that perspective in 2035 we will only be able to pay that which is coming in we will be able they will be in a trust fund to pay those benefits at what they thought they were going to get. It would probably mean as an average about 20 reduction in what people thought they were going to get in Social Security. I think the argument Social Security has never not paid its benefits but in order to make it functional for the future as part of our debt and deficit problem we have to make some changes in the Social Security program. Whats the most efficient change you can make to lengthen the amount of time we have those accesses . I would point to two unfortunately one of them is probably increasing the payroll tax as part of that would have to be part of it. But at the same time i would say the other aspect of this is the fact that we probably want to focus on the demographics in terms of the aging and may be modified the point of time that we receive full benefits and retirement. That might be moving it weve moved that out slightly to full retirement age 67 moving it up but we can move that forward the good news is we are all living longer, we are healthier. Generally, and as a consequence make sure that we are adjusting our pension programs to reflect the fact that we are a much longer living population. Is there a magic number when it comes to the age to make Social Security most beneficial . I cant think of one off the top of my head but i would say probably want to start closer to 70, 71, somewhere in that neighborhood for full retirement benefits. Washington state from jordan on the republican line, next up, good morning. Hello, good morning. I wanted to discuss foreign aid as an example when investing in Different Countries like chad or the congo. Its been proven many times that if we involved other r countries into the World Economy actually helps balance the deficit. First of all, the amount of federal spending that goes to foreign aid is always overstated significantly. Less than two percent of the total federal spending goes into what we would define as foreign aid. I agree with you chad. I think as an example the issues that we are facing on the border today and as it relates to the difficulties of the people having to leave Central America to get out of the difficult situations they i live in i think investments in those countries from the federal government would improve the Living Standards may be controlled some of the poverty in the country. It would avoid some of the problems we see with the immigrations going on today. Im one whos always believed that this is a Global Economy but lets be clear the first and foremost aspect of this is that we dont spend that much in foreign aid and its increasing foreign aid would immediately at least in the near term would increase the debt and deficits further . From North Carolina democrats line this is carol. Good morning. Good morning carol. I have a question. For years and years all the district protestant dog presence and money has been taken out of sosa key security and medicare like its up event. If anything we need some kind of law put on there that money cant be taken out of the funds to fund wars, to fund other government expenditures. We dont know whats being taken out of those funds and how much. Every now and then we hear about it on the news like some taken out for obamacare, 100 billion taken out for obamacare and medicare. These funds are rob dalton. Then you hear about all the big expenditures that the governments wants to spend money on. Where is the money coming from if we are so short of money of Social Security and medicare where is all the money coming from the government spends on all the Different Things its been things on im just curious thank you. It comes from you the taxpayer of the United States paying your taxes. It also comes from a very important aspect of this something we are dealing with right now is that we borrow the money. Right now as i explained to pedro we have a debt of this country of nearly 22 trillion. We borrowed 22 trillion we have to pay interest on that. That is where when we have running deficits we have to assign revenues that come in bbut the revenues are ovnot covering the expenditures we have to borrow. I disagree with you, im sorry, swe are not stealing from soci security or medicare. Those programs have their phones, they have their trust funds, they are spending the money that comes in to them. I think when you talk about obamacare having reduced spending and medicare it was more the fact that the expansion of particular benefits reduce the amount that was needed to expand on medicare whether expansion and Medicaid Program to reduce reduction in spending for medicare. The first and foremost to answer your question is wheres the money coming from . Taxpayers and borrowers and by the way about 50 today of the money we borrow thank you very much is from investors overseas. I have a friend who likes to say we are the best looking horse in the glue factory. Thank you very much that we are still looked at as a good investment and people are willing to buy our tbills and invest in this country. Of your from twitter this is Patrick Court says one will interest on the debt exceed medicaid or defense spending on the basis. Very good question is about 10 years you will see that expand the Fastest Growing, this is all projections of course it depends upon Interest Rates. We know today Interest Rate will Interest Rates are very low level. I believe today. If those Interest Rates start to go back to what we call normalized Interest Rates backup into the 3. 5 percent Fastest Growing component of the federal budget will not be Social Security, it will not be medicare, it will not be defense, it will simply be paying the interest on that accumulated 22 trillion in debt. About 14 to 15 percent in fact, figures in just yesterday that looked at the first nine months of 2019 show Interest Payments grew 16 percent last year. This the Bipartisan Policy Center the good staff and the work that i work with yesterday we track to this we call it the x state and what time does the federal government actually run out of Borrowing Authority. We reach that date back on march 1 of this year. Since march we had the secretary of the treasury has been initiating what we call extraordinary measures that he can legally use to make sure that we are able usto borrow th money to funnel them. By our own estimates of the Bipartisan Policy Center we believe that there is a risk that we could run out of our Borrowing Authority by sometime early september. Its a risk. It depends on what happens from now until end of september. Particularly as it relates to income coming in on taxes weve seen not the growth in the corporate taxes that people thought, theyve been flat last year. Personal income taxes relative to the same nine months last year have also been flat. We are thinking that the federal government is facing a very significant cliff which is that we could default the federal government and 230 some year history has never defaulted. Think of it as bankruptcy. I dont think this congress, i dont think this president , wants to be on a watch that says the federal government went to bankruptcy. Thats what a default means. It never happened before but to deal with this congress has to raise its authority to borrow or issuspend it so they can pay its bills. Which thats the political w discussions weve seen in past congresses even shut down because of this. This is a confluence of two events unfortunately. We have a fiscal year that begins in october 1 where we have to Fund Government we also have to have the money to Fund Government and yes it can create a shutdown but the difference i want to make very clear here is a default is something that is never happened which is the federal government is bankrupt and cannot borrow and does not have the money to pay the bills. This is keeley from massachusetts independent line with the gas bill hold one of the Bipartisan Policy Center. Good morning. My question is, instead of spending so much money on defense, why isnt the United States using federal budget to fund foreign aid specifically to prevent global udconflict through peace building. Theres a bill in the senate that would use the International Affairs budget to eliminate recognizance global a a its taking a lot for senators to sign on even though its bipartisan bill and would reduce defense spending. I think the previous caller also raised the issue of increasing spending on foreign affairs. I think its something thats a serious proposal. I would say i was a staffer appear for 33 some years. Foreign aid is something that people look at from a humanitarian perspective and it does have a peacekeeping focus to it but at the same time when it gets down to it there is still we are needing to maintain the benefits and security to our own public thats the form we talk about whether Social Security benefits or pension benefits or Healthcare Benefits so this is a balancing act how much do youa invest in Foreign Investors or Foreign Countries versus investing right here in the United States. Another thing to talk to about budget caps for the 2020 fiscal year of the article tells us budget the pentagon cut by 71 billion domestic io programs cut by 55 billion fill in the blanks for those. Here we go. In 2011 he passed an act called the budget control act of 2011, which set caps on spending for 10 years. Those caps set a level for defense and nondefense. We are at this point about two reach the year 2020 in terms of the fiscal year that begins and the caps that were adjusted back almost a year and and a half ago now would be dropped down because of this act going through 2021. Those caps in order to adjust those Caps Congress has to pass a law or they leave them where they are. If they leave them where they e are paid or just issued an outline that would be a 10 cut in defense and in fairness some people would i guess like to see that kind of cut in defense, i dont think this congress nor the president will support anywhere near that kind of a reduction in defense spending but at the same time it also would result in a 10 cut in nondefense spending at the same eftime. Such things as education, science, technology, infrastructure, nthings that people say we need to invest more money in. The negotiations that are ongoing right now separate and apart from the debt limit that we talked about earlier is what to do, how to adjust those caps for 2020 so we dont have those kind of cuts or more importantly like you just raised, government shuts nmando we cant pay anything at that point. The republican line, helen. Hello. Good morning helen. And just wondering what on earth all these people, these illegals, they get everything for nothing and we that have lived here and worked, i worked for 50 years and now Social Security is getting cut off. But everybody else gets everything for nothing. Food stamps and a lot of People Network cant hardly afford the food. What about the democrats that are trying to arrest everybody just to find out something that dont even mean anything. Okay helen, we will leave it esthere, thanks. Im not sure how to respond helen. Your Social Security benefits are not going to be cut off. What we are talking about is a reduction in 2035 a potential reduction if we dont adjust any changes in the Program Going forward relative to what people expected they would get. Heres pat from pennsylvania democrats line. I have three things, first thing is if you lift the cap on how much people pay into Social Security that would help and a lot of things are people say that would increase their benefits but rich people die young too. Second is how come every that works in a chair all their lives wants to increase the age limit on Social Security for the workers that actually do work out here. The third thing, how much is corporate welfare costing us every year . First of all, i do agree that one of the adjustments and i didnt mention that pedro asked about what we would do is to adjust that cap on payments going into the Social Security fund. To raise that up like 118,000 i think it is. On the issue that you also raise as a second issue you raised im not im blinking on what it was specifically you raised but i do think Social Security trust fund has to be addressed and corporate waste is out there. Ive always found in my career here that one one persons waste is another person something of that nature careful about all that Going Forward. If you look at the analysis about changes that could be done even to start to tackle the debt what would you advise . At first but advise you have to approach this in a no surprise coming from the Bipartisan Policy Center in a bipartisan center. Its true. You have to focus both on spending and revenues. I think we are not abi want to be clear, were not talking about coming, talking about slowing the rate of growth in some of these benefit programs. Ogi do think we have to focus o the pension programs, retirement programs. I do believe we can make adjustments in those programs Going Forward to lower the rate of growth. Also think we have to unfortunately if we want to have money to spend on foreign aid on money to spend on defense if we want money to spend on rebuilding our infrastructure out there i think we have to belly up the bar and simply say we have to have additional revenues. I think the carbon taxes another approach we might want to think about Going Forward that would have the beneficiary of improving our environment. Jerry in kentucky, go ahead. Is a bump up bump down rule in spending. When the government has a contract thats a bump to the economy. If after the job is finished and product starts going to use if he gets back to the economy thats a two bump. If it costs more its a bump up bump down. None of these politicians ever want to talk about this. I like to have your comments on that. Thank you. If i understood the question or the issue is a bump up there was a bump up. We did have a bump up associated with the tax cuts in th2017 i think part of the grow in the economy as the president talks about we are experiencing right now with the Unemployment Rate is associated with a bump up as you call it. Longterm the bump ups go away and you have to stabilize Going Forward. Longterm not in the near term but in longterm we are going to have to find some way to reduce the level of debt thats going to be a tax and a bump down on future generations. Bill hogan with the Bipartisan Policy Center if you go to the website you will see analysis from the new cbo numbers particularly when it comes to issues of debt and deficit. Thanks for your time. Thank you pedro. Cspan washington journal live every day with news own policy issues that impact you. Coming up wednesday morning Board Members of the one country project including former north dakota democratic senator Heidi Heitkamp and j. D. Scholten talk about the Groups Campaign to reinvigorate democratic parties relationship with rural issues and borders. Then Ohio Republican congressman johnson serves on the House Budget Committee would discuss the debate over federal spending and efforts to avoid another government shutdown. Emily martin of the National Womens law center will join us to talk about efforts to close the gender pay gap. Be sure to watch cspan washington journal live at 7 00 eastern wednesday morning, join the discussion. There has been discussion about an appearance before congress any testimony from this office would not go beyond our report. It contains our findings and analysis and the reasons for the decisions we made. We chose those words carefully and the word speaks for itself. The report is my testimony. I would not provide information beyond that which is already public in any appearance before congress. Former special Counsel Robert Mueller is set to appear before two committees of congress on wednesday, july 17 at 9 00 a. M. Eastern he gives testimony to the House Judiciary Committee and later in the day he will take questions from the house intelligence committee. Both open sessions. Our coverage of Robert Muellers congressional testimony will be live on cspan3 online at cspan. Org or listen with the free cspan radio app. By the end of this month britain is expected to have a new Prime Minister and a contest that will be decided among conservative party members. Former london mayor Boris Johnson at British Foreign secretary jeremy hunt are the two leading candidates to replace theresa may. They faced one another in a debate focused on brexit and future relations with the u. S. After a british diplomat was caught making disparaging remarks about President Trump that were leaked to the media. That prompted a response from the president on twitter where he was critical of the ambassador and theresa may handling of brexit. I think that leadership is also about your values. [applause] with the chinese last night in hong kong. And for six years i had very difficult decisions very tough times but by the end of my type read about 3 million or more patient and outstanding hospitals. I think leadership is about people who get things done and those of the qualities i offer. Thank you very much. [applause] straight to the point on President Trumps, about the Prime Minister in the uk about start to the u. S. I have a very Good Relationship with the white house, im not very proud of during my time, but i think its very important that we should have a close friendship or partnership with United States. There are most important all al. He was dragged into a potable debate which it dont necessarily think is the right thing to do as jeremy said our relationship with the u. S. Is a fantastic important on kim derek and british civil. I would just say this, i think its absolutely vital that the advice that Civil Servants give to ministers should not be leaked by ministers. It should not be commented on by ministers of Civil Servants will feel free. Just to get facts on this particular point, will he still be in his job and the end of the tenure if you become Prime Minister . I will say this about the relationship i believe the relationship of the United States in the relationship between the uk in the usa is the most important in history. On the agreed President Trump. But who chooses our ambassadors is for the United Kingdom government in the United KingdomPrime Minister. [applause] if i am Prime Minister, the ambassador in Washington State because its our decision listen very carefully to what jeremy just said, i repeat my point, it is vital that the Civil Service is not politicized by leaking what they say whoever leaked those needs to be in a serrated. Hold on [inaudible] he is due to retire until christmas and i will certainly keep him due to retire. Thank you you wouldnt keep him or extend his term . I will keep him until he is due to retire. Im not going to be presumptuous thank you what i will say, i and i alone will decide who takes important jobs such as the uk ambassador to the u. S. Thank you. [applause] over cspan3 president ial leadership survey, taken between 202,017, Andrew Jackson dropped from 13th to 18th place. Dwight eisenhower rises from the ninth to the sexpot. Where is your favorite president rank learned that and more about the lives and leadership skills of 44 chief executives in cspan the president. It is great vacation reading. Available wherever books are sold court cspan. Org president. New york senator and democratic as initial candidate Kirsten Gillibrand has been on the campaign trail in new hampshire. One of her stops was at the college in manchester for politics and eggs breakfast where she talks about healthcare, campaignfinance and Climate Change among other topics. [applause] thank you very much. Neil is acknowledging people in this very important people here. And you know who you are. [laughter] there are two people that i would like to acknowledge. Craig coker is he is a genius. A people often ask how it began, and he began with