Special elections on september 10 so coming up soon. We expect one of the most in republican hands that we expect the other would be very competitive, the ninth district. The penny onn the result of that special, republicans could either need to pick up 19 or 20 seats to retake the majority in 2020. Host when it comes to the house map, we saw the house flip in 2018. Whats the likelihood or how oftenha has that happened in history, that house has slipped in one election and then looked fall of election . Guest theio last time was 1952 and 1954. The House Majority hasnt flipped twice in in a row since then. It hasnt flipped in a president ial cycle since 1952. There are some historical precedence that are working in democrats favor. In five of the past six president ial election cycles democrats have picked up house seats. S. In seven of the past eight president ial election cycles than net shift in how states has been in the Single Digits. Even my republicans need 19 or 20 to take the majority back. Those are working in democrats favor. In the republicans favor is the geography of the house. We are working under a set of lines, boundaries that republicans largely true l in 2011. We are still looking at a map where there are 31 democrats representing seats that President Trump carried in 2016 and only three republicans sitting in districts Hillary Clinton carried in 2016. There are enough winnable seats for republicans to possibly take back the majority butac i do see democrat still as a modest favorites for now. Host one of the many nice things about the cook lytic report is a map of competitive races and the listing of those races rated by what you think they are right now, whether a tossup, whether that lean one way or another areey likely one way or the other. In these tossup races, especially in a president ial election year, how many of these are simply depend m on president ial coattails as goes the president ial race, so goes the most competitive races . Guest the two biggest unknowns are what does the president ial race look like . What do President Trumps coattails do for republicans . A could be a drag on the ticket. Its possible a democratic nominee could be a drag for democrats to be on whom democrats nominate. We dont know a lot about the electability of the field quite yet. But theres also the unknown of republican retirements and how many republicans will head for the exit. We are at 11 republican open seats right now. Night ofca those are retirement. To macaroni for other office and only three open. Seats on the democratic side the more republicans that retire, and keep in mind this is something that tends to happen after party loses its majority, you see a bit of an exodus, the more opportunities democrats could have to score some insurance pickups against their losses. Host we talking with David Wasserman. House editor. Ool if you have questions about your member of congress 2020 race any member of Congress Come hes a great present ask those questions to. David wasserman will be with us until the end o of our program today at 10 a. M. Happy to answer questions about any of the house races this cycle. I want to stay on the retirements for second as folks are calling in. You mentioned an exodus. Youve also use the term texodus. Explain the term. Guest weve had a lot of turnover in texas recently. In the last several election cycles weve seen a number of of republicans and democrats retiring. Right now we are seeing quite a phenomenon in terms of Texas Republicans leaving out of the seven retirees in the past month, four have been in texas. The big problem all republicans. Host republicans including Mike Connolly who used to chair the ag committee. He comes from a safe seat in west texas but the big problem for republicans is these three retirees from districts that are actually majorityminority. They have become more diverse over the past ten years. They are peter olson in in the 22nd district outside houston. Will hurd in in the 23rd distrt outside sanitary. That district encompasses a lot of the border and goes all the way to el paso. And then the 24th district which was Kenny Marchant and that is in the dallasfort worth suburbs. All of those districts are big problems for republicans. Will hurd is the only africanamerican republican remaining in the house. He only won reelection by 93026 votes in 2018. The democrat who lost by that margin was already getting up to run again. She is now probably the favorite to take control of that seat. Host if anyone retirements can hurt a party with another one, retirement to you think a certain the most republicans . Guest will hurd in texas. Thats the one that hurts the most because he is one of those three republicans in the house that comes from a clinton district. But another seat i would watch very carefully is seventh district district in georgia, rob woodall in gwinnett county, atlanta suburb. Were noticing a lot of the districts republicans do at the beginning of the decade a safe republican seats are no longer safe republicans because of demographic changes and what trump has is done to alienate a number of suburban republicans in the past several years. Trump is that some positive things for republicans in more rural areas of the country, but in these seven melting pot suburbs thats what democrats have the opportunity to gain some ground. Host before we leave taxes, is texas a purple state . Is ath still a red state . Guest it is a red state thats trending purple. Heres the funny thing about texas. Its really republican policies that have made texas a more purple shade of red in the last 20 years. If you think about the legacy of governors like rick perry and george w. Bushge and greg abbot, its been to lower the Corporate Tax rate to the point where you have all these corporate relocations from blue states like california and new york and illinois. We see millions off professionas from coastal states, from blue states move to suburbs of san antonio and austin and houston and dallas and their brought their political values within your now those suburbs are behaving differently than it used to. We saw beto orourke when Williamson County which is north of austin. Democrats have that one is places in years. Weha are seeing the house races start to become too close for republicans comforter in 2018 even the democrats only picked up to backseats of the 26 that republicans held, there were six more republicans in the delegation who won by five points or less. Three of them are already retiring. We are watching the other three closely. They will have competitive races and so its no wonder why the Democratic CongressionalCampaign Committee has made texas ground zero. Host let you chat with a few more called a focus on some of the other races. Carol out of new york, a democrat, you are up first. Good morning. Caller good morning. Id like to ask guest about cd 22 in new york and Anthony Brindisi who is a freshman and beat Tea Party MemberClaudia Tenney. I would like him to give us any insights he may have about the upcoming congressional race. Thank you. Guest thats a fascinating district. There was no district in the country that democratst ticked p that gave trump more than feet 5 of the the vote in 2016, but this one came close. Trump won one this district by5 points in 2016 when he democrat did manage to win the seat. One of the reasons Anthony Brindisi was success was Claudia Tenney was really unpopular as an incumbent. She made a lot of controversial comments. She kind of got out of the way to alienate some republicans in the district. Their long been a divide between more moderate republicans like Richard Hanna who would represent the seat for a few years and more conservative republicans who fellre into the handicap. Now theres likely to be a very in the Claudia Tenney camp. This ought to be a seat republicans can win back. This is one of the most vulnerable seats for democrats in the country. The question is do republicans nominate Claudia Tenney . Or do they nominate someone whos more conventional republican like perhaps steve cornwell, the da. If republicans can get a mainstream candidate as the nominee, i think the odds of winning this seat back a pretty good. Host you break new yorks 22nd district as a top up. Theres 17 Democratic Candidates are democratic incumbents that you put in that category of being in a in a tossup race. Of the 17, are they mostly freshmen members of congress . Guest they are mostly freshmen. The democrats who arees the most vulnerable are indices of the democrats margin in 2018 was smaller than trumps margin in the district in 2016. The same categories i like Joe Cunningham in south carolina, kendra or in Oklahoma City, ben mcadams in salt lake city, utah. One of the things we noticed in 2018 was democrats broke through and a lot of southern suburbs. Which are starting to vote more Like Northern suburbs. They picked up seats in place of her democrats never would have expected to ten years, charleston, south carolina, Oklahoma City and even dallas and houston. We willal see if democrats can hold some of the seats or if they were a fluke. Host if you havent joined us before, youre in for a treat. We canny target any of the congressional races coming up and pick his brain about it. Let us know what races you interested in. We will head to massachusetts. Matt is a democrat good morning. Caller good morning. Thank you for taking my call. David, im a fan of the ratings. Ice fall you on twitter. Sometimes i bug you but particular ratings but always keep it polite. I wanted to get your thoughts about to make particular states that i find very interesting. One is minnesotas First District where freshman republican jim hagedorn is running for his first reelection bid after winning last year, one of the only two blue to red flips in the house. And i find it interesting because if former congressman jason lewis runs for senate as is being considered in minnesota, the republican sweep in that district would be hagedorn for house, lewis for senate, trump for president and all three men have a history of very controversial remarks. Some rightly considered sexist, some rightly considered racist, certainly inflammatory. If there is an airy way that might play as an issue in and of itself, its the land of minnesota nice. So im interested in your thoughts on the dynamics in minnesota first, particularly if democrat dancing makes a second try for a rematch with host e4 but lose you, whats the other race . Caller the other races californias First District where doug lemieux file might be one of those republicans heading for the exits. He is used to winning by 1823 points. Last two that was cut the Single Digits by Audrey Denney was running again and is out fundraising him this year. Some issues including rural broadband, rural healthcare that were real issues are more Republican Issues are kind of leading with the tradable and its impact on the agriculture sector, moving in democrats direction. Host appreciate that. He seems to know them well try to i love the college this morning. In minnesota one, the call raise the possibility that three republicans with a history of inflammatory comments could be on the ballot if thats true but guess what. Trump won minnesotas First District in 2016 but over ten points. Ct that nearly cost the incumbent democrat tim walz reelection that year. He later went on to become governor in 2018 and a republican jim hagedorn one betsy. Look, i dont think democrats odds are the retaking this district are veryry good. There are only a handful of democrats leftdf from rural whie districts such as this one. One of them is Collin Peterson in the district to the northwest of the First District. He is chair of the house agriculture community, and even though he is a very powerful longterm member of congress, high popularity back home, he saw his margin cut to just about five points in 2018. And to spot an original member of the Blue Dog Coalition still at house is like trying to spot a leopard in a thick forest summer. There just are not too many of them left to see. Hes got a race on his hands as well. I think democrats in rural minnesota are kind of in a, kind of an endangered species. In california first, doug lamalfa, who is a rancher, the incumbent sauce margin cut to the icing of digits in 2018. Look, i think i was probably a High Water Mark for democrats in a wave year. Its a very, very republican seat and even though republicans just Seven Members out of 53 in california, this democratssnt one the are going to get at least in the next few years even though audrey was an exceptional candidate for this site in 20 can and probably will be again. Host who might be more vulnerable on the republican side . Guest so of the seven republicans left in california, all but one of them, kevin mccarthy, saw their margins cut to Single Digits. It has to scare the heck out of republicans in that state. In 2019 wes. Saw for the first time republicans became essentially the third third pan california. They fell behind decline to state voters in terms of registration. Republicans are going to try to get the four seats the loss in Orange County back but i dont know if the odds are very good. Democrats are going to be going after duncan hunters seek in san diego county. Hes facing a a trial. Hes under indictment. Democrats are going to be trying to protect a lot of the gains they made, but one of the reasons why democrats did so well in 2010 was that there were still a lot of republicans from blue states left. Thats not so much the case anymore. Host to the wolverine state. Dolores, republican, good morning. Caller good morning. Im a little nervous so i hope i state my question. My concern, and you feel why theres no penalty for what the politicians say . Especially in this president ial race. Want. An say whatever they every unnamed source in the paper and news media. They can choose, i guess an example of, theres just, doesnt seem to be any well like, for instance, they can just im getting a little nervous here. Host thats okay. Do you think a penalty is not being elected or being voted out of office . Caller something, some penalty. They can just do whatever they want. Even i watched the debates afterwards they were saying this wasnt true, that was true, this wasnt true. They should be able to tell the truth, and if you dont and you cant prove it, there has to be some sort of penalty. Not out of office but i guess i dont know if a financial fine, i dont know. It just seems really hard for me just an average voter to know what to believe when they can just do whatever they want and then like two days later they print that they made the mistake and it wasnt true. Host lets take up thatt topic with David Wasserman who has watched a heck of a lot of campaigns over the years. Guest clear, if a candidate says something patently false in an ad, oftentimes tv stations take those accident. I do think its the medias job to hold candidates accountable when they say things that are not true, no matter the context or the setting in which they say it. But i think a big problem lately has been kind of closed information looks in the country. The decline of local media that once provided voters the opportunity to size up candidates based on their backgrounds and qualifications on who they were as people a little bit more than just simply look at their party. We seen a rise in straight ticket voting we seem i decline in split ticket voting. If i had to give advice to local news outlets, outlets that interact with quite a lot, it would be that its probably past time to stop endorsing candidates for office. Because it do think that when voters perceive that and be the outlet has a horse in the game, and this is what cspan is a trusted, it kind of colors the credibility of the hard news and the outlet. I think that explains a little bit of thes decline in trust weve seen in newss media when t comes to holding candidates accountable. Host your twitter handle is redistrict, go to source for redistricting analysis. Can you explain the june Supreme Court decision on gerrymandering and what its actual impacts will be on the ground looking ahead to 2020 . Guest so the suprememe Court Decision in june essentially said that you cant sue to overturn maps in federal court that, on the basis that they are partisan gerrymandered there is this ended a decades long fight essentially over whether the to impose aing standard by which the judge maps is going too far. And although this was regarded as as a setback for reformers, it basically reserved the status quo. We havent seen a map overturned on partisan basis in federal court. And going into the next round of redistricting, there was already hope that we would less aggressive gerrymandering. There are a number of developments at the state level that are going to change the game without Supreme Court intervention. For example, a new commission in place in states such as michigan, colorado, utah, ohi. Whether those commissions actually work to stop aggressive gerrymanderingor in the states s to be determined. Some reformers believe that those reforms are more cosmetic than anything else. Its an open question how they will turn out. But democrats also one additional governorships in 2018 that allow them to have a seat at the table that they didnt have in some places back in 2011. We are also likely to see in states where republicans still do control the process in 2021, some reexamination of their1 strategy. The cows barely get the maps be drew in 2011 and in member of states we subdistricts that were intended be safe seats that fell by the wayside in 2018, because a change in voting patterns in suburbs. The republicans may need to be a little more careful in terms of maps that the drop especially in places like texas and georgia. Host take it down to texas. Judydy is a democrat. Good morning. Go ahead, judy. I can hear you breathing there. Caller hello. I want to discuss abortion because it seems to be a big deal in a lot of these races, and i have personal knowledge of it. And id like to know whos going to take those babies, track and babies, alcoholic babies crackhead babies, babies with a lot of problems if these women dont have abortions . Guest it could come up as a as a big issue in the 2020 president ial campaign. One of the reasons why trump was able to break through as a republican candidate where others have not been able to break through in the past was because he emphasized issues where he had some common nouns with workingclass democrats, particularly on trade and immigration. Andy deemphasized some of the hasocial wage issues that plague republicans for some time, especially the marriage and abortion. He did not really embrace socially conservative positions. He tried to bring social and religious conservatives into his coalition by nominating mike pence for vice president. But to the extent there is a big debate next fall over the future of roe v. Wade at the Supreme Court, that could split trumps coalition somewhat because it does include a number of workingclass voters, particularly women who are prochoice but recent coastal politics. For years democrats were able to do well by portraying republicans as a part off the wealthy and the party of bible thumpers who were to post the religious vows on anyone else. Trump of course is opposite of a bible thumper. But if democrats can make the oncethat republicans are again pushingat tax cuts for the wealthy and trying to impose religious values on voters, they stand to gain back some of the ground they had lost. Back in michigan. And independent. Good morning. Good morning. They beautiful morning here. Its in the 60. Sounds wonderful. Its a little hotter here in d. C. Go ahead with your question. I was raised a democrat who in this last election changed my whole mind. Seeing as a democrat has completely reversed. I was election judge in chicago on Republican Party because i could nott get to be one as a democrat. Gods country. I dont understand why the congresswoman from minnesota, from new york. Why are people putting up with that group . I just dont understand it. I dont know. They act like they are above the president of the United States. As far as im concerned, a disgrace tora this country. Their impact outside even their own reason. Republicans try to run against nancy pelosi. Did not work. Their message, House Republican message going into 2020 is that the squad, certainly the forefront of the party kind of leading off the socialist left. That is simultaneously dangerous , but it also provides any opportunity for a lot of those that dont fall into the progressive caucus. Dont fall into their political viewpoints to separate from themselvespa. Abigail who was in our tossup column one a very close race in 2018, ran a very impressive campaign, she is running more of a pragmatic democrat. 4. 6 billion in emergency funding for the border. Differentiating herself fromg te squad. Had not called for impeaching the president. 235 have called fivee have cald for impeaching the president. There are someti opportunities r democrats to show independence from their party as to the squad notoriety. What is amazing to me is 62 democratic pressures in the house. A question of cortez winningb the primary, a bit of a surprise surprise to years ago or less than two years ago at this point. Are any of those members of the squad facing a tough primary challenge or are they likely to cruise to the nomination and the general election. The to to watch are to leave in detroit, several political players in detroit who are mulling a challenge against her. She actually did fairly well in the suburbs. Then in minneapolis. There are some democrats who wish there was a more congressional democrat in that seat. This is one of the most liberal districts in the country. Four out of the five most democratic districts, 62 democratic freshmen in the house i do not think that there is much room to run. Kyla new york. Michael. Republican. How are you doing . Go ahead. I am here from new york. Pretty much our leadership here is atrocious. I think thats why we drink so much. Look. I do not think that republicans are all that competitive at the statewide level. Probably be wiser for his fortune to keep his house seat and become more influential in the Republican Party in the house. I do think his chances of staying there are pretty good after surviving 2018. To new orleans. Democrat. Good morning. Good morning. My question is, what influence does the political right Organization Call the family . What influence will w they haven the upcoming election . I recently saw a documentary about this group and how they are behind the scenes really running the country. It was so enlightening. As it went on, light bulbs just went off in my head to explain what is really going on in our country. I believe thatna documentary running on netflix these days. Ive been watching myself. The Republican Party leading image problem at the moment is a lack of diversity. Out of 13 women remaining in the republican conference in house, there are two not running for reelection in 2020. From alabama and indiana. The recruitment chair for the nrc c. That was a bit of a blow that she decided not to run for reelection. On the positive sidee for republicanss, there are a numbr of impressive women who launch candidacies against incumbent democratic freshmen. People like lisa sparks and Michelle Park Steel and Orange County california. Lindholm rich who is a home depot executive running for a home seat in georgia. Ashley henson who was running against a democratic freshmen and iowa. Republicans really are trying to expand. Right now, 90 of House Republicans are white men and they know that that is an image problem. What was the reaction when susan brooks announced she was not running . Republicans are the favorite to hold onto her seat. Retirement on the part of a nontrump republican house. People who were there before trumps brand really took. Have a lot of mainstream republicans. Their rains were decimated in 2018. The Republican Party in congress has become more trump century. Terry. Democrat. Goodod morning. Good morning. How are you guys doing this morning . I have a question here for david. Ten district. Scott perry is running. Scott running against him. The lastt time. The democrats lost by 1000. Now we have have tom brier and eugene going to take them on. What does he think about that . The other question is, will there be a primary between these two democrats . Thank you. Thank you. There will be a primary. Look, favored at the outset. He was at the top of democrats wish list of any district in the country as the incumbent eight auditor. He ran statewide in 2016. Carried this district. This is an interesting district. Four years the incumbent pennsylvania. In 2018, the state Supreme Court which had democratic majority decided to overturn that the republicans had gerrymandered in 2011. They imposed a a map that creatd a seat into a suburban seat. It is a swing district now. This is in our tossup column. One of the most competitive races of 2020. August recess. Town halls. Home with their constituents. What are the key themes that you hear you merging in town halls this august recess . And a lot of conversation right now about a lot of the issues that are being discussed at the president ial level. Certainly emigration isha at the forefront as well to healthcare. Democrats have too be careful remember why2022 they won their majority in 2018. I interviewed dozens and dozens of democrats who ran in the most competitive districts in the country. They were not talking about trump very much. They werent r talking about russia or the prospect of impeachment. Republican votes in 2017 to repeal and replace the aca. They were talking about the republican tax bill. Particularly, the changes. Voters are still paying attention to pocketbook issues and what affects their daily lives. At the extent democrats get caught up in some of the issues that have moved the parties to the left in the president ial race. Youve heard president ial candidate talk about decriminalizing border crossings. Er rebalancing private sharons. Put a lot of these in a bind really close to the election race. What about the issuee of gun control . Democrats are going to be talking a lot of background checks. An issue where republicans have a problem because expanding background checks is still not a winning message in a republican primary and yet it is something that enjoyss strong public support and marginal and competitive districts. A lot of the freshmen democrats are campaigning on expanded background checks. If they can keep it to that rather than talking about an assault weapons ban, michigan very much wants to speak with you today. Good morning. Good morning. My question has to do with justin. I lived in the district located west of them. Coming out of grand rapids. He has to clear that he is running as an independent. There are quite a few, i guess, from what the local news says, quite a few running the republican primary. And then of course, a a democrat will run. What would be the impact of a threeway race like that in an area that is traditionally republican. A justin seems to be pretty popular. Im wondering if a democrat may slide in under those circumstances. I will take my answer off the air so i can unmute my tv. Thank you very much. One of the districts democrats did not really compete in, now has challenges from his left and right. As an independent, very difficult to win a house race unless you have the share of one side votes. The danger, not only that he has about 120,000 in his bank account, which is not much, also , there is just not a big market forro a prolife, pro impeachment member ofco congres. There is a crowded field of republicans running against him including peter mayer who is the heir to a Major Grocery chain. Jim was a state representative in that area. On the democratic side. Immigration attorney and former Obama White House staffer. It is really early. We dont have must precedent for this kind of race. Threeway house race. It will be interesting to see if they take away or democratic or republican votes. We dont have much polling to go by. Republican. Good morning. Good morning, john. Good good morning,re david. An interesting race turn up in a couple of weeks. Dan bishop and dan mccready. A trump backer who will answer any question about anything. And then you have mccready who wont answer anything. They keepg. Asking him, are you far from borders. I going to from senate. It just looks like it is coming down to the wire. I would just ask david what his take on this race was. A very competitiveti do over election. Keep in mind that this race came down to a couple hundred votes in 2018. It was found that absentee ballot fraud was prevalent enough that it warranted another election. Which is why the seat has been vacant for nine months. We had it in our tossup column. I doo think republicans may have a slight edge here. The reason is dan bishop, the republican state senator represents the portion of the ninth Congressional District where democrats typically have done well. If bishop can neutralize the election in his own backyard, then it is hard to see the democrat making up that margin in a more conservative area in this districtmc county. He will be using that money to attack bishop for giving a donation to a social media platform that was later, later became a hotbed for white nationalists. Bishop is denying that he knew that platform was headed in that direction. He says he regrets that. I do think that this race will be highly polarized. Probably not ascr high turnout s a race last november. I would give dan bishop the republican a tiny edge. If democrats do when that seat, what does it do for hopes of republicans taking back the house in 2020. After gaining 40 seats in 2018. I do think that there is a bit less urgency here for democrats now that they have party taken back thehe house. Perhaps there wont be the same rocket fuel dynamic in the Democratic Base to turn out and vote. Late summeral special election which we have seen in previous cycles. The massive amounts of money that went into the special elections. This feels a little sleepier than we had at this time two years ago. It would be nice for democrats. It would be more double demoralizing. Right now, i think the republicans ought look really decent. It is cook political. Com let meme internet. On twitterer it is at reed district. Fort lauderdale, florida. An independent. This is a little bit of a complicated question. I am a no Party Affiliate voter. Have been since immediately after i voted starting back in 88. I am noticing, especially over the last four years, things change. Not saying my support, but im noticing something very odd. As ive been contacted by independent polls. Seeing where eileen as an independent. Certain names, specifically Bernie Sanders has been left out or dissuaded as im feeling they are not addressing him in the democratic field because he was not a democrat up until the election. I am wondering whether or not you feel that the polls are being manipulated based on other ideologies. I dont care what it is. We are not getting a true snapshot of how the American People feel. If they are not adding him and or theirs waiting against mentioning his name because he is my true democrat or he was an independent, do you feel that the polls and the American People are being guided or misguided in some way shape or form. We have a question. A lot of questions about the reliability of polling. Actually, the polls got 2016 right, forpo the most part. They showed at the end of the election, Hillary Clinton with the lead. She won the popular vote nationally by 2. 1. A smaller error then the one we had in 2012. A lot of skepticism on the part of Bernie Sanders supporters. The primary elections in 2016 were rigged and in Hillary Clintons favor. She did not need superdelegates to go over the top. She won a clear majority. She won more votes and Bernie Sanders. We are seeing in the 2020 race this it trusting dynamic of Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders splitting the left. They are taking from different segments of the democratic electric. I think a lot of Bernie Sanders appeal is that he is an independent. He has this insurgent whereas Elizabeth Warren, even though at one time she was a republican, now a democrat, there are also Many Democrats who believe that their best bet against trump would be, there best way of sending a message is to send a woman. We saw that dynamic in 2018 when in the primaries, democratic primaries when you had at least one man, one woman and no incumbent onot the ballot, a won prevailed 70 of the time. One of the reasons i was skeptical of the early pulling in the primary races share that showed for white men, including Bernie Sanders and joe biden combining for about 60 of the vote. Americans inundated by polling numbers. What shouldd they look for in a pool to trust that poll . We are looking for a couple of things when we evaluate polls. First, who took it . T . Was it was it an immediate organization was that for one side or the other . Often times, candidates take a lot of polls. Release the one that puts them in the best light. In the president ial race, you know, we prefer to take an aggregate of the Gold Standard polls. Are conducted by major news organizations. Abc, nbc fox. Cnn. A combination of live telephone interviews. Increasingly, we are seeing more polls with online samples. We are comparing those, we are still in the early phase of online polling, but, clearly, we are, we are headed there. We are looking to see how wellknown the candidates are in these races. Often times we will see a poll in a house race where one candidate has a lead in the mid 40s. Most of that is attributable to the fact that they are better known and if the district cleans thee other way fundamentally, te other candidate could actually have an advantage. There are a lot of data points above the top line that you have to take into account if you really want to know what a pole is saying. Less than 10 minutes left today. We will get to as many calls as we can. Good morning. Looking for an opinion. Republican socalled exodus in the house. Limiting the amount of time they can serve as chair. A Ranking Member on committees. It is the six year limit. That is when senate leave the house. In contrast, the democrats can stay on as long as they are reelected. One reason why think you have as the democratic house. I wasas wondering that you sense the effects may be that the democrats have sixyear limits. I wills take my answer off the air. Excellent question. One reasonca is that there ia six year limit on the republican side. The ag chair. He is retiring. We are looking at historical data. I was looking at 2008. The last time they were fresh out of the majority. Wewe saw we saw six democratic retirements. Democrats ended up capturing her teen of those 27 open seats. Right now we are at reed democrats leaving at 11 republicans leaving. We were on pace for something similar to 2008 except i dont i dont expect democrats to win as many of those open seats because we have a more polarized landscape. Truly competitive. Another side effect of this is a lot of those old goals were talking about, they are getting primary challenges from their left. Looking at a number of committee chairs. Foreign affairs. Richard neal from massachusetts on ways and means. Jerry nadler. One of the most liberal in the house. A primary says he has not been aggressive enough. A lot of these older more senior democrats have to watch. Any awkward endorsements that are happening . Primary candidate against older members of their party. See that happening at all . There areaw a few cases of awkward alliances where some younger members of the squad have gotten behind primary challenges. There is a young woman in texas, 28 district. Running against against one of the more conservative emma kratz in house. That is an overwhelmingly hispanic seat in texas. We will see if it resonates with voters there. These races are notorious hard to forecast. Every situation is unique. Eric is a democrat. Good morning. My question is, i believe all democrats hold allth districts. Thinking democrats are most at risk of losing. The three republicans, will heard from texas who is retiring. I think democrats are slight favorite to take his seat. Brian fitzpatrick from pennsylvania. Fitzpatrick one in 2018. Able to survive the wave in part because democrats nominated a wealthy philanthropist. Was really easy to portray. Out of touch with bluecollar voters. Making up a lot of the vote in bucks county. One of his advantages in syracuse is that the very small market. You are an incumbent in the news a lot. Emphasizing where you differ from the party nationally. His reputation as a prosecutor has allowed him to perform a lot better. Probably the toughest one. You mention this number before. On the flipside of that coin, 31 democrats represent districts caring in 2016. You have 17 democrats in the tossup. Your race ratings right now, do all of those fall under the 31 districts . That is correct. Clayton, iowa. A republican. Good morning. Good morning. I just love your program. I would like to ask mr. Wasserman from the cook report about the Fourth District in iowa. It doesnt look good for him in the primary. Im wondering if the democrats could possibly take that area . I will hang up and listen to his response. Thank you again. Steve king has done just about everything he can to lose this district and he hasnt been able to. In a pretty large district that voted for trump by 25 points, i believe, in, in 2016. Everything going right for democrats in 2018 in this race. Former baseball pitcher. Outspent king massively. Wasnt even on the air. Still managed to win. Highly partisan straight ticket nature of voting. If he could not lose in 2018, i dont know if democrats will be able to beat him in 2020. A primary challenge probably the most formidable running against him. If there are multiple primary challengers, getting renominated i think that there was a path for reelection. Time for maybe one or two calls. Independence. That morning. Good morning. How are you, sir . Interestingng situation. My good friend is an independent Susan Collins who was often portrayed as by Many Democrats as the Second Coming of Margaret Chase smith. Losing a lot of her support among democrats and independents for what is perceived to be a bit trial her independent instincts. I think it has been compromised. She will be running in the primary against the woman who is the speaker of the main house and is a democrat. I wondered how mr. Wasserman felt about that. Thank you for bringing it up. I will give him the last minute of the program today. In maine, its an interesting situation. She managed to alienate former democratic fans of hers by failing to vote brett kavanaugh. She usually wins with 70 tiered that will not happen this time. It will be a lot more competitive. That will have an impact on the second Congressional District in icmaine. Jared golden one that seats, in part because of voting which was newly imposed in maine last year. Actually a former Susan Collins stafford. Before we close, i just wanted to note on a personal note, one of the reasons i became so interested in data was actually my grandfather who was a weatherman for many years and a climatologist up in massachusetts. I just wanted to say hi to my grandfather who is in hospice care. I brought a letter, actually, that he gave me, it was correspondence between him and his brother talking about the 1936 president ial election. The first election he ever voted in. He has 103. Talking about the Reader Digest pulled that had been released weeks earlier. Family history. I just wanted to say thank you to him for passing on a passion. David wasserman cook. Cook political. Com. We will see you further along in the election cycle. Thank you so much. Other Live Programming today. Join us later this afternoon when journalists and former white house officials examined the relationship. Discussed by the american political association. You can see that live at 2 00 p. M. Eastern on cspan. Congressional observers talk about the 116th congress and the effectiveness of the lawmaking body. Another discussion hosted by the science association. Watch that live at 4 00 p. M. Eastern also on cspan. Listen live with the free cspan radio app. The u. S. Senate comes back into session on monday september 9 with 2 important issues on their agenda. Passing spending bills and antigun violence legislation. Before senators return to washington, get a behindthescenes look. The senate conflict and compromise. Here is a preview. Created in the spirit of compromise and mutual conception Thomas Jefferson questioned the need for a senate. Lets follow the constitution establishing the senate to protect people from their rulers the state of this country and maybe even the world. Congress and the United States senate. Conflict and compromise. Using original interviews. Video archives. Unique access to the chamber. We will look at the history, tradition and roles of the u. S. Senate. Please raise your right hand. Cspan. For 40 years, cspan is providing unfiltered coverage. The white house, the Supreme Court and Public Policy events from washington, d. C. And around the country. You can make up your mind. Cspan is brought to you by your local cable or satellite provider. Cspan. Your unfiltered view of government. Alexoi holderman joins us frm ann arbor michigan where he teaches Computer Science at the university of michigan. One of your Research Specialties i wonder, professor, what you thought of this headline last week. Hackers can easily break into voting