Crisis in syria and how western nations can respond from the center for strategic and International Studies this is one hour. Good afternoon. Welcome to the center for strategic and International Studies. Welcome as well to our viewers online print my name is jacob, acting director of economic humanitarian agenda. The humanitarian agenda is a project that cis speaks to leverage the expertise of our scholars and programs to shine a light on the most pressing humanitarian issues in the world today and offer policy solutions. Before we begin i like to direct everyones attention to our emergency exit and safety and security plan and encourage you all to take this opportunity to turn your phones to mute. I want to acknowledge before we begin the partnership that our partner has with the agency for International Disaster systems whose support allows us to put on events that works with this discussion. We have a short time today so i will be brief. All of us here are keenly aware of the immense human suffering stabilize in the cross area right now and families and individuals have been forced into multiple with targeted attacks going on civilians all of which challenges our notions of shared humanity. The event and escalations of violence this past weekend only increased the urgency of finding solutions for this we humanitarian challenges faced by the civilian population of syria. I have to say that while we are grateful through our speaker today we are joining us and for hosting and having this event today i find it deeply distressing and disappointing that after so many years we continue to be hosting events on the same topic highlighting the same challenges and we continue to find ourselves asking what we do and what can be done. Without any further ado i like to pass it over to one of our regular partners in the humanitarian agenda for doctor altman is the Senior Vice President of the specific chair and goble security in u. S. Strategy and is the director here at csis and will introduce our speaker today. [applause] thank you, and thank you to the humanitarian agenda and the usaid for supporting these programs. The horrors of are playing for those who wish to know them could almost one william people, many children, our standard along the borders and trap between armies. In the province has long been a different place doubling its population since war broke out in syrians sought refuge from the fighting. Now 3 million syrians are huddled there suffering from cold and lack of water, sanitation and medical care. This has been occurring outside the public layer not because its unknowable but because the public is uninterested. Seized by coronavirus and president ial Campaign Insight shaky economy and rising tensions in europe United States and elsewhere the crisis gets little attention. That is what brings us here and we are here to speak to a forceful humanitarian whose organizations have been doing terminus work to try to relieve some of the suffering. David is president and ceo of the International Rescue committee where he oversees the agencys humanitarian in more than 40 or affected countries and its refugee and Resettlement Assistance Program and over 20 u. S. Cities. Under the leadership the irc has extended its ability to rapidly respond to the humanitarian crises and to meet the needs of an unprecedented number of people uprooted by conflict, war and disaster. The organization isnt lamenting and a vicious global strategy to bring clear outcomes, strong evidence and Systematic Research to the humanitarian programs through Collaborative Partnerships with the public and private sectors. Before he began this important work he did other important work from 20072010 and was the foreign actor terry of the United Kingdom and graduated from oxford in 1987 were the first class honors degree and got a masters in Political Science in 1989 from mit which they intended as a kennedy scholar. This compliments have earned him a reputation and former president bill clinton words, is one of the ablest most corrective Public Servants of our time and as an effective and impassioned advocate for poor people i am pleased to reduce to you mr. David [applause] thank you very much, john. Thank you, jake. Good afternoon. Ambassadors, excellencies. Also thank you to usaid who you are partner and you are our partner. The office of foreign disaster systems gives foreign aid a good name and its a flexible entrepreneurial committed partner of ours and its a nice link that they are also partners of yours and im afraid that the timing of this event is very, very good for all of the wrong reasons but the situation today in northwest syria is beyond desperate and does i know from my own staff on the ground life, nevermind livelihood is daily in doubt and as jake referred to the Turkey Russia syria clashes should underline to all of us that the wider diplomatic vacu vacuum, notable for the absence of coordinated european engagement, notable im sorry to say also for the absence of the United States is a real and present danger, not just to humanitarian needs but also to wider regional stability. My purpose in making this speech today is, in part, to bring the humanitarian reality to washington to speak up for our staff and for the people who they serve in the hope that there is still room for humanity and principal in the corridors of there are a few countries with the capacity to shift that dynamic in syria in the u. S. Is one of them. I hope there is residents and what i described today and as well as brainstorming amongst all of us here in the conversation after my speech about what to do about it. Also bringing in lib to washington today the situation i want to make a wider argument in this is that the wider argument that im trying to make that its the war in syria is not just a disaster but an argument that the war in syria will dangerously become a byword, a precedent for a new normal of brutal, divisive, contagious conflict. Impunity on the battlefield, stalling of diplomacy, the un pulled from pillar to post, a system inadequate, enabling states, creaking under the strain of refugees, western policy befuddled by a mixture of dysfunction, division and deni denial. That is the reality of the syrian story that jake referred to and the danger is that it becomes copied elsewhere. Here is what i will do today. First, summarize the Current Situation across syria starting idlib. Second, how we see syria as a warning for the training gene nature of conflict around the world today. Third, set out shortterm imperatives for how to save lives today and forth, draw wider lessons for humanitarians and diplomats. I think we all know that the assault on idlib is intended by the Syrian Government to represent the grim imax of the nineyear long civil war in syria. I know to civilians have fled since december with not a 400,000 still at risk of joining them. The largest civilian displacements is the war started nine years ago so yes, there have been conversations about syria and debates about syria over nine years but this is the largest displacement reflecting some almost borland fighting and every single day another 11000 civilians who joined the hundreds of thousands on the run and among those forced to flee are about 20 of our local staff who attempt to preserve their own work as well as their own families as they do so. Over 80 of those on the run are women and children, many are out in the cold braving freezing temperatures about 20000 with no shelter at all, freezing rain and snow which has led to the deaths of about seven children in the last month. Deaths from freezing itself. A tax on Health Facilities who represent some of the most egregious war crimes and are taking place despite specific calls from you and secure to Council Resolutions to be stopped. In the past three weeks alone the irc and other organizations we work to suspend operations at a number of Health Facilities and relocate an entire fleet of ambulances because they were being attacked. In total more than 80 health in Idlib Province are now being closed. It is also the case that the situation has deteriorated so far that all the usbased ngos have come together in the Global Emergency Response Coalition which is a humanitarian to launch the only secretary in joint appeal in our history to raise funds for to plummet inside idlib. The fact that the exodus and idlib is the greater since the world began his testimony to the marilyns and i dont think it should obscure that there are risks in other parts of the country too. In the northeast of the country 70000 are still displaced in the region is still recovering from the consequences of the turkish offenses against the predominantly Kurdish Democratic forces by month ago. Just last month a u. S. Convoy exchanged fire with the progovernment militia while driving to a checkpoint. Meanwhile, the Islamic State has been diminished but not vanquished. The group is not as deadly in the past but it is a persistent threat counting out regular ied accounts in places like rocca, east of the euphrates and temporarily capturing villages and bombing oil and gas facilities west of the river. In areas previously for opposition control which has since been retaken by the Syrian Military we know from our own staff that the end of formal fighting has not led to an end of violence or an improvement in the civilian populations humanitarian situation. Charles of the middle institute counts more than 350 attacks in the past 12 months in the southwest of the country where the civil war began, including an attack last month they killed two workers. The situation resembled the present conflict rather than an emergent piece. Meanwhile, outside syria the situation of nearly 6 million syrians who fled across the border should not be forgotten. 78 of syrians in jordan live below the poverty line. Half of the 500,000 syrian refugee children in lebanon still out of school nine years into the war. It is worth noting and im sorry to say this as someone who is a foreigner in america and i live and work here and i have huge admiration and respect for the country but to the following is almost the most stunning statistic of all those i will give you. It relates to the continued shame for the u. S. That this country has made it so difficult for syrian families to find refuge here could remember the statistics, 3. 5 million tgs in turkey, 915,000 in lebanon, 655,000 in jordan, 567,000 in germany and just 5623 were let into the United States last fiscal year. And only 320, not 320,000, 320 are on track to enter this fiscal year. That is what the reduction in the Refugee Resettlement program has meant for syrians hoping to find safety here. Meanwhile, the Syrian Government has made no secret of the fact that the syrians who fled to neighboring countries as refugees are not welcomed back. The government has levied a wide range of criminal charges against returning refugees today many of them risking improvement in torture if they try to return but they also use the implement law ten to appropriate land that once belonged displaced families, preventing refugees from having a place to come home to. Finally, the conduct of the war will make reconstruction and attempts to make some cord type of normality all impossible for the decades to come pick 9 of the syrian publishing are currently served by functional Wastewater Treatment plants in only 46 of Health Facilities are not fully functional. More than one in three schools damaged or destroyed. This is a decay that will affect future generations as well as the current one. The broader point, i think, is really important in the catastrophe in idlib and then this is the third thing i want to talk about that how we should understand the situation in syria today as symptomatic of a wider, what i call, age and immunity paid the catastrophe are symptoms of the utter failure of diplomacy and the abandonment by the International Community of syrian civilians but it also foreshadows an even darker trend towards impunity and characterized by disregards for the rule of International Law and equally great dessa facet of international diplomacy. It allows the suffering of civilians to continue on a basic brutal siege tactic, airstrikes on open senses, of junction of childs over, use chemical weapons, public beheadings, in town squares. These crimes are bad enough but accountability has so far been all but nonexistent. The majority of the blame lies with the allied syrian russian and Iranian Forces of the un high commissioner for human rights pointed out of the roughly 300 civilian deaths in northwest syria this year 93 were caused by the Syrian Government and its foreign allies. In the process of so blatantly violating vote rules of war those countries have spurred a race to the bottom and gives me pleasure to point out that in the effort to take back rocca from the Islamic State the u. S. Lead operation destroyed or damaged more than 11000 buildings in the city and has taken no response ability for reconstruction. This can only undermine calls for quote unquote, restrained from Russian Forces in idlib. I believe fear will receive in syria is not unique in that it foreshadows a dangerous trend where the laws of war so carefully built up after the Second World War become option optional. I think it is important to understand what the drive of this age of impunity. I would put to you there are four. First, war is now increasingly urban so the distinction between civilian soldiers is eroded. This is a major reason or the war in syria has displaced more than 11 Million People. Here is an interesting thing. According to it carnegie since 19 provide an average of five people were displaced for every one person killed in conflict. In syria that five one ratio is 25 to one. The battlefields in syria is increasingly crowded filled by nonstate actors with the constellation of free syrian groups, local Partner Forces by the u. S. Backed syrian Democratic Forces and foreign militaries for the u. S. , russia and iran. The involvement of so many groups, more than 100 record the conflict and invent data has fractured the battlefield geographically but also hierarchically given the often unclear chain of command within each of these groups. Furthermore, here is the point, it is not just well, ill go to the point. Third point, the large presence of foreign militaries has made the war far deadlier to civilians due to the increased firepower they bring to an otherwise quote unquote civil war. As devastated by the widespread russian airstrikes on cities like idlib with the issue is not just the imbalance of Foreign Forces in syria but that the mere presence of in total, 70 countries now contribute to complex and other countries according to the Peace Research institute of oslo. The syria phenomenon does not stand alone. Its increasingly common elsewhere or just think about somalia, iraq, elsewhere. The fourth driver of this age of impunity needs to be talked about. Its an obvious point dramatized in the title of this years Munich Security Conference but the title was quote unquote west les ness. It takes a german speaker to find a way of encapsulating the trauma or the dysfunction of western policy. The absence of the west and the syria endgame is not only a military question outside the northwest of the country but syria is low, very low on the western diplomatic priority list and Foreign Policy is very low on the political priority list. In fact, fear of entanglements largely outweighs commitments to the suffering and the roots of this abstinence are obviously the failures in iraq and afghanistan the lingering effect of the financial crisis but when liberal democratic countries committed to human rights are absent than those who regard those rights as an inconvenience are given free reign and that is what we are seen. Because although syria is the poster child for the age of impunity if you look at civilian debt and look at killing of aid workers and if you look at a range of indicators of children caught up in conflict syria is not an outlier but part of a trend and so that leads to the concluding or the prescriptive parts of my remarks. I want to talk about shortterm relief in a idlib and calm onto the wider lessons. The immediate need in syria is a ceasefire, obviously, and increased unimpeded access for civilians in need but there is no chance of this happening in little point in people calling for it without a strategic decision in washington and Washington Capitals the syrian matters enough to require all the costs that come with engagement of any kind. Since im running a humanitarian ngo i have to steer away from the military side of these questions other than saying all military decisions should be taken with a view to their humanitarian consequences. Even short of the military questions once the decision is taken that engagement is right there are ways to increase the cost on those who are perpetrating crimes on the battlefield. For example, instead of un states and officials expecting others to address the crisis both need to step up. I suggested general spearhead and shuttle diplomacy between italy, damascus, moscow and new york at the Security Council. The secreting council itself should be meeting at the ministerial level, the presidency should convene a ministerial session which the Un Human Rights Councils commission its members and requires them to account for the human rights abuses and war crimes taking place in syria. There needs to be engagement by western powers with the seriousness of the situation. A meeting seems to be off now between President Trump and merkel and macron and seems to be a bilateral, president putin, air to one meeting. Wider meeting make sense but where is the u. S. In that story . Also the widening of flows and the renewal of crossborder aid and the reopening of the crossing in the east are essential to crossing points for aid were closed in january. Without the action and other two will be closed in july. Make no mistake, the humanitarian situation could deteriorate much further. Further, we need accountability for crimes committed following up on each of them reports that contains such chilling footage. Its surprising to see that there are no eu sanctions on russia for their actions in syria. Accountability needs to start with the report of these board of inquiry to attacks on civilian infrastructure in syria do to report next week. The inquiry is a litmus test for meaningful account ability and we should all judge the report accordingly. The inquiry, in my view, should be perpetrators in finding must be made public. Finally, the multilateral framework for political talks that have been elbowed aside by the countries of the process, russia, turkey, iran and syria itself is essential. This participants have proven unwilling or unable to improve civilian protection, reduce attacks on aid workers or improve the humanitarian situation in the country. The fact that there is something called a human process should not fill everyone into thinking that it currently exercises real leverage over the actions of the parties and there will be a solution until that changes. In the addition for shortterm measures which are daytoday concern we think its incumbent on me as leader of the humanitarian organization to discuss a far more thoroughgoing set of issues that are raised by the conflict in syria. As well as the dangers it pretends to the global system. I want to say that its important to have he military in this task. Hindsight is 2020 and theres never been a clear or obvious path to resolving the war and preventing civilian suffering. But some things are obvious in retrospect and were pointed out by many people at a time. For example, quote unquote, assad was go is not a strategy. Neither is, quote unquote, keep the oil for redlines are not read unless they are enforced. Counterterrorism, the bandaid, not a solution. Other things and other lessons are more complicated and therefore more difficult and for the benefit of discussion i want to highlight four lessons that i think are serious because syria does not represent an outlier but represents a trend in the first is that International Law will become optional unless it receives a surge of support. And i want to quote from from russia on this. At the Un General Assembly last year he rightly said quote, international i beg your partner, international attacks on law are looming large but many will the irony and in this giving the situation in syria. He called out what he sees as an american philosophy of quote, i do as i please. I do as i please is precisely the problem but to state the obvious not confined to the u. S. I want to remind you the International Humanitarian law was based on the lessons of history after the Second World War with a view, especially of end of war. These laws do not judge the military mission but demand that it be pursued with necessity, proportionality and distinction. When appropriate the laws of war limit harm to civilians in conflict and offer soldiers a roadmap to pursuing their mission with honor and valor intact. But now, International Humanitarian law is under siege. I want to suggest its defense needs a threepronged effort from Civil Society from us in the absence of government leadership. First, we need to strengthen the ability of people on the ground safely record and document abuses, Technology Companies have a vital role to play in this. Second, on the basis of that documentation we need to use the laws that exist to push back against the perpetrators. That does not just mean international Committal Court to which syria is not a signatory but also examples like the german ngo, European Center for constitutional and human rights which has filed a criminal suit against syrian generals on the printable of universal jurisdiction. Third, countries who support International Humanitarian law should use the economic tools at their disposal such as the minutes of the act and the newly passed in the u. S. , caesar act, to target those responsible for violations. The second lesson of syria is that we need the independent principal and loud voice of the United Nations more than ever to report on breaches of the un charter and exposing abuses of human rights and working fiercely to overcome the obstacles put in the way of the fulfillment of basic un principles. The work of un staffers on the ground around the world is, as ive seen for myself, committed and brave but the gridlock at the Security Council and the need to gain support over National Governments in countries where the human works threatens the freedom of the un, its agencies and its officials to speak out. This needs to be of widespread concern. The ability to speak truth to power is one of the uns great strengths and when high commissioner of the human rightt happened in myanmar in 2017 as quote, a textbook example of ethnic cleansing his words rightly reverberated around the world. Yet, the powers to whom truth needs to be spoken are precisely the people whose funds pay the bills, nominate officials and control agendas. It is said that the uns only as strong and principled as its member states, especially the powerful, permanent members of the Security Council. The un chancellor gives independent backing to the work of officials and on issues like climate change, independent work of un bodies has been vital in building the body of evidence necessary to urge the world to act. I would argue that an masses of peace and security we cannot afford the power of the human to bear witness to what is happening on the ground to be compromised. The third lesson concerns the danger that military power renders diplomacy irrelevant. In syria, russia and iran have shown how hard power Still Matters and however many times the bull not say there is no military solution it remains the case the military power can subjugate populations and win wars even where it cannot win the peace. The situation where government is willing to kill its own people challenges diplomacy as well as law. Here i think for the american audience is important to draw the contrast with the northeast syria and northwest syria. It is striking and instructive and in the former northeast there is a tenuous balance of power sustained by American Military decisions and some scope of the powersharing in the latter in the northwest as we are seen there is no similar balance, no constraints on the use of syrian, russian and iranian power and as prospect of powersharing as turkey has proven both unable to deter syrian aggression and unwilling to emphasize civilian protection in its military efforts. I think all of us have a far more serious thinking to do by what is meant by quote unquote, a political solution but the truth of the last nine years is that its been far clearer what people want to see at transition from, not what they want to see a transition to. We have to think much harder about what conditions are possible to bring about political solution and the consequences for diplomacy when those conditions are not present. While the presence of troops insufficient on its own to resolve the underlying challenges of powersharing and government there are absence can make political reconciliation impossible and represent an agency that works in all the words zones we see that more and more. The fourth and final lesson of syria is that the regime of refugee support has never been more needed and never been more inadequate. This certainly needs another lecture but here are three obvious points. First, countries like lebanon, turkey and jordan have been sheltering millions of refugees that the main burden has been borne by their host populations. That is not sustainable. Hosting refugees is a Global Public good and needs to be supported by the International System and while the word bankers make good steps in this direction we need to go far further. Second, refugees for a long time have been assumed to be in greater need than those who are internally displaced. One lesson of syria is that this is an assumption is not always holding troop in the idp, internally displaced, shuffled into idlib are more at risk than the relatives who made it out of the country. Third, the loss of the u. S. As a champion of Refugee Rights is echoing loudly around the world. Though u. S. Resettlement numbers will never match those in refugee hosting states like lebanon or jordan the symbolic value of a robust Refugee Resettlement program is high. It is absence has made a significant harder for refugee hosting governments to step back into step up to their legal obligations. The west can make no claim to help Syrian Refugees when they refused to take them in and then expect host governments to pick up the tab. The absence of this effective regime leads the situation that is in the News Headlines today. Turkey using refugees as desperate leverage against europe and europe, not really knowing how to react. The boomerang effects of neglecting refugees support for the nine years of the war now comes home to roost. Europe needs to be more than on the alert and needs to be galvanized into action before it is too late to prevent another refugee crisis in europe. Let me finish on the following note. There is no doubt that about the scale of the syria fatigue that is felt outside the country. You referred, john, to the difficulty of getting attention for this crisis. My point would be what right do we have two be fatigued compared to the people who are inside syria and those of Million People displaced from idlib over the last three months have, in many cases, and displaced two, three, four times before. The population of the province has been doubled by the influx of those displaced from elsewhere in syria. If we know anything it is this what starts in syria, does not end in syria. That should worry us all. That is why this issue belongs at the top of the agenda of policymakers as well as humanitarians. Syrias trauma represents many of the sins of commission but also sins of omission. This is what we must seek to put right less this new decade becomes one of impunity. Thank you very much indeed. [applause] david, thank you very much for that very powerful talk. It gave us a lot to think about. I was struck by that phrase that you used, the age of impunity. There are arguments that so make that we need to recognize that the office said regina has one and that it is conquering the last remaining corners of the country and we have to deal from that reality, especially because there is no diplomacy that will change that reality. How as a humanitarian, who in many ways has had to work with repressive governments all the time, how should we think about their rehabilitation of the assad regime . The Assad Government and what messages that sends about impunity for actions Going Forward . Is that a reward to assad . Look, the first thing to say that is if you representing a humanitarian aid worker you dont take sides. You are on the side of the people in need and its important to our ability to work to do that. As it happens we work in syria before 2011 but we were there in 2008, 2010 and the reasons we were asked to leave have never been made clear and we hold very firmly to the possible that we do not judge the merits of the side that we are [inaudible] but secondly, we do speak to reality. The reality at the moment is that 6. 5, 7 million of syrias remaining 60 million population are living in areas outside government control. They are living in the northeast of the country, 3. 5 million. They are living in idlib 3 million or so. Here is the thing about the bombardment that is happening of the military action taking place in idlib at the moment. No one can show that it is advancing the military goal that has been set. Russia set the military goal. President assad has come to it and its to remove those in government of that territory and those are [inaudible] and various others. The bombing thats happening at the moment is killing civilians but it is not removing terrorist groups or other nonstate actors. We have to speak to that reality ended bearing bearing witness to that reality every day. Third and finally, we have referred to the ability of i would argue that any government has in its own hands to rehabilitate itself to its action and it is not the role of outsiders but by your actions shall you know them. The accountability for war crimes is that it is already essential that if the message does not go out that times will be people will be held accountable for their crimes and your encouraging more of them. Civil societies plays a role that i very briefly alluded to in my talk. Its not about denying the reality on the ground and not about taking sides in the dispute but about recognizing that if the law is not upheld the law becomes and its dangerous for everyone. How would you make the case to an American Public that is fatigued by almost 20 years of war in the middle east and that they should care about those issues and they should care about International Humanitarian law and that it affects things here in addition there. There are two parts. One is i dont think we should and i think its important not not to be so afraid of seeming bighearted that you run away but im happy to make the argument to any american audience that the freezing to death of children upon the trees in idlib is a moral outrage that they should be concerned about as human beings and as human beings of a powerful country and they been bombarded from their homes by their own government and and i dont believe once to run away from that but however, anyone who tries to only sit on the moral high ground is doomed to failure and so i would also say that it is essential and i think something that humanitarians arent always good at is that we should make the strategic geopolitical interest based argument as well as the humanitarian argument for the geopolitical argument is that American Interest and they are engaged in the following base bid one, we have interest in the middle east and whats happening in syria will not end and syria will destabilize and second, the russian entry or reentry into the middle east is a very significant geopolitical change and if america wants to be playing a role in the middle east it will have to show how it will be conducted and thirdly, i would argue that americas role in the global system in American Interest arent just those that are devastated by but demonstrate by taking as well. America has been able to benefit from the rule of International Law around the world and it loses when those laws are undermined. Fourth and final points which i hope does not sound selfinterested coming from the european and im happy to be a brit that still refers to being european is i still believe that america has a strong interest in its democratic allies in europe been sustained in their strength and in their stability. There is no question that already with the dangers that pose from migration flows from libya which is very much under european policymakers mind they also have to be concerned about further unplanned, unregulated, disorganized flow of people from the middle east as well. And so, for that reason i would say that the American Interest is denied and where 113 countries have suffered in losing some democratic freedoms in the last years that its even a point that europe and america stand together. That would be the fourth part of my argument. You dont have to tell me you have to tell me whether that will win followers in across the u. S. But that is the best i can do. Let me ask you a british question. Not a european question. Its notable that britain doesnt really have or is not at the forefront of diplomacy on this issue and as a brit, do field thefts eight mistake for british interests . Is that a way for bret might demonstrate the role of upholding a moral structure that the United States is not i would hope so. It grieves me that i can make a speech about how theres a key meeting being, off again on again meeting with micron, merkel, erdogan meeting but no one ive heard no clamor over the last weeks since where people have said no, no, theres no chance that meeting will succeed unless you invite Boris Johnson as well. There is a real absence there. It is striking to me that a country which still a member of the Security Council whose double max make strong statements at this current counsel has not gone to Political Leadership wanted to engage in this geopolitical question. I dont want to move or claim for what the uk can do but i am deeply concerned that the era of drugs that will be an era of reddish isolation and that is, i think, not good for britain and modestly i would suggest is not good for the violent world either. Let me ask one more question before we go to the audience. The u. S. And its allies have been pretty adamant that there will not be assistance to syria until there is a political settlement that brings in the opposition. Is that sustainable . Is that a mistake . Does there come a point where the world should relax that for the good of the people who you rightly described have been suffering . I hold a very strong view that if you are a civilian in a government controlled area of syria then you have rights to aid if they are not being met by your own government in the same way that if you are a civilian in a rebel held area of syria you have that right. I would argue strongly against that aid. One of the leaders that does exist, its taught by european makers, they cant just be given away. It would be wise to give that away. If youre living in a government controlled area into your government is not meeting thought, you should be saying thank you to the u. S. Or European Countries and the program. The reconstruction of the country is a broader political construct where you would expect the allies of that country to be engaged not just those who are raised with that action. A few questions right there. Wait for the microphone, if you what. Thank you for an exemplary talk. One that hit beautifully all the high points. Im aware, at this time, of another train wreck. Thats the strike of coronavirus on populations like refugees and africa and other places where there is no Health System or the house system is deeply undermined. This morning, i heard experts with the view perhaps 40 and 70 of the World Population in one way or another, when we experience this. Is it something that we, refugees are likely to escape. This is clearly something that involves people all around the refugee areas. Has there been any thinking about this and any way to prepare for it . Second, is there any longshot here where the devastation, perhaps 10 mortality in this kind of a situation could lead to some kind of ceasefire . We seen this and other humanitarian tragedies in the past, shortterm sometimes, sometimes longterm, sometimes leading to peace conversations. Its just an idea at this time but no tragedy, i think in one way or another, should be allowed to happen without thinking through the full range and would love to hear your comments. Look, if you really want to know, you should probably be giving the lecture given your extraordinary ideas. Just on coronavirus, first of all, with a stroke of luck, the places where we do most of our work in the middle east, some in south asia as well, theyve been spared so far relatively speaking. Second, things could easily go very, very bad indeed, very quickly. If you think about the spread where there are Health Systems and advanced Public Health information, where there are extensive, easy to access hygiene efforts, just think of the speed of spread among populations where those things that exist, where there is Public Health, where the idea of when you put 14, the idea of quarantine is absurd in any kind of Mass Movement of people in here, one every 105 people on te planet have been displaced by war and conflict. Maybe 60 in urban areas. Your fear for refugees, youre absolutely right to draw attention to it. Scrambling to figure out the impact on these programs, if you think about the Health Programs will be weakened, the danger of an outbreak amongst our clients. So if you want to get more depressed, you have to think about the spread of coronavirus amongst those populations that we help and that is certainly a real clear danger. If not in this episode, and perhaps the second part of the year. In many countries in the middle east, a Public Health service. Iran, which has been devastated is not among the most graphic. Remind me the number of cases in iran. I think 3000. I saw a hand over here. Good to see you again. Id like to go back to your claim, francis cook. I like to go back to your point on technology. Being creative with technology and im wondering if you could challenges are gone valley to do more and in more creative ways, have they come up with good ways to deliver systems, im very impressed by the amount of ways of getting out of syria. They developed anything to help you in your work in delivering these . Yes and no. You commute more in a shorter period of time, but weve also done work with partners elsewhere, but we have been able to do, information platform for refugees in europe, is called refugees. Info. Software engineers in the leading companies and 1 million refugees used it on arrival. With now extended to el salvador and its taken on divorce seven human ways to ask questions, you could say im on the run, i need to know where i can find a safe house. This is where i am and we are able to answer. Thats impressive. We would like to expand back to mexico and the u. S. As well. Would be happy to hear from them. On the side of safe reporting, i remain very, very concerned. I think those who are caught in the midst are in great danger but also great danger if they get stopped at checkpoints or elsewhere. There remains a lot of work to do to make it safe to upload information in a secure way. I wanted to focus on one of your last points from your presentation, which is communitarian aid is not. The reason im asking, i worked with syria in 2017, the implementing partners of the state department. Our program, which is called building budget ways building the legitimacy of counsel but supporting the opposition counsel to make sure, at the time, and 2017, the prevention was how it would be done from a third be a telephonic him and dont leave a lack of governance for isis and other entities to fill. Who wants to make sure the local councils has the ability once it was gone. That hasnt happened. Im concerned because ive been out of the picture for over a year now, do you think there should be a push to continue reconstruction played along the lines of supporting local councils . It sounds like right now, if thats being withheld, we are allowing there to be a vacuum in certain areas. I cant speak the details of the program you were involved in and i know in the northeast, there have been four efforts to develop the kind of system that you are speaking to, certainly delivering aid organized and its partnering with international players. Its a very healthy metal. I cant speak to the details of what youre i certainly think the middle east, the needs to help organize in civilian terms as well as the literary terms is evident. It would stand to reason that it would make sense to do that. Time for one more question. Right here in the front. Thank you. Im a syrian american, you talked earlier about making the case for engagement in syria, americans making that case the last nine years, morley and from your lip political standpoint and looking around this room, but i noted you are following the democratic debates when there was mention of that, you can imagine the difficulty and trying to get in the points about engagement in syria within a limited amount of time. My question is, perhaps theres a parallel between the trends within the labor party and democratic parties here in the u. S. The growing space and stability excuse me, the growing space barr disinformation within the leftwing movements and particularly how progressive actors in the space want to find the words for engagement in places like syria but making sure some of the responsible voices will have the flattest platforms arent getting more airtime. Thats a great question. That basically means i dont know the answer. That is a great question. [laughter] did i didnt think it was good e debate last week, at least asking the question in the previous debate, there were two, 32nd questions answered and one was about what not to do and we were then told we didnt have any more time to discuss for each candidate. I think theres no question that the failings and failure in iraq has caused a lot of debate, you could say the same people are paying the price. I do think that the contrast, if i had 30 seconds, i would have talked about the northeast and northwest. It is a teachable moment and it doesnt say throw american troops into northwest but it shows you that american presence make a difference and mitigates against the temptation that tries to make this a very binary divide. Equally, i suppose theres two other things i should have said, one is that weve got a lesson to learn in the humanitarian movement, the real voices that are persuasive are those on the receiving end. The more the beneficiaries can beat the spokespeople, the stronger the case made, for ab able, one is to appeal to people and military. The second thing, is that the danger, you are asking for the whole u. S. Government and everything threat. My reflection on six years working is how much difference you can make. Youre not asking for the whole government to be turned over to a policy program. We are able to make more different and maybe thats an argument that may needs to be make. The out side contribution that america would have, i think your reflection is sobering. Different spokespeople into different arguments to make the case, i do think america, went to work like that in syria takes the turn that it has. Thats a sobering observation. Thinking through the future and the idea of impunity is a idea that we should be turning over as we think about how we get into the next phase, not only in the conflict but resolving the conflict and dealing with the extraordinarily real and pressing humanitarian need since you accurately describe, join me in thanking david. [applause] [inaudible conversations] john fremont brought the Pacific Coast into the United States. At the beginning of this month the United States didnt have a Pacific Coast. There was a territory in oregon disputing in california, which belonged to a mexico. Fremont encouraged the american settlement of oregon and took part in the american conquest of california just in time for the gold rush. He did play a real role in changing the map of the United States. Morning addition on his book imperfect union. Jesse and john fremont mapped the rest. Invented celebrity and helped cause the civil war. Sunday night 8 00 p. M. Eastern on cspans q a. Cspan, unfiltered
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