Transcripts For CSPAN2 Alexander Keyssar Why Do We Still Have The Electoral College 20240712

Thank you for joining us virtually tonight through Virtual Events like tonight, our bookstore continues to be authors and the work to our community and our new Digital Community during these challenging times. Every week, will be hosting events here. On resume accounts. Just like always hard Event Schedule be at harvard. Com and you can sign up for our email newsletters for more updates. This evenings discussion will conclude with some time for your questions and if you have a question, for our speakers at any time during the talk tonight, click on the q a button at the bottom of the screen and we get through as many questions this time allows. In the chats i will be posting a link to purchase when we still have the Electoral College on harvard. Com as well as a link to donate and support of this series and restore. Your purchases and financial contributions make immense likes tonights possible. And it was to ensure that future of the landmark independent bookstore. We thank you so much for showing up and tuning in and in support of our authors and the incredible depth of booksellers at Harvard Bookstore. We sincerely appreciate your support now and noise. And finally, as you may have experienced in virtual gatherings recently. Technical issues may arise and if they do, we will do our best to resolve them quickly. Thank you for your patience and your understanding. And now pleased to introduce our speakers. Alex is the author of numerous books including the right to vote which was a finalist for both the Pulitzer Prize and the los angeles vote price and when the award for the american historical association. He is matthew w sterling junior professor of history and social policy at the john f. Kennedy school of government at harvard university. Miles is a senior practice fellow in american democracy at Harvard Kennedy School Center for democratic governance and innovations. As a longtime organizer, policy advocate an elected official. Prior to his appointments to the center, he was most recently president of the independent grassroots organization, because. And now im honored to turn things over to our speakers the digital podium is yours. Thank you. Also thank you to the Harvard Bookstore for making this possible tonight. Thanks to all of you who are joining us tonight will be a very good discussion especially to alex writing this Remarkable Book i have been a friend and fan of the professors book for years we both been involved in the democracy reform the right to vote has been the anchor if i can use that term in the field of the understanding of the nations troubled and fried history of the right to vote. Why do we still have the Electoral College . As the anchor explanation with the possibilities of change from the Electoral College. Timing is everything there is more interest in the issue of how we get our democracy and then at the same time there is more interest with a democracy reform that i have seen as well. There are two kinds of challenges. One is the immediate challenge we are facing in this incredibly turbulent moment. For an example the president of the United States wants to postpone the election may be because it will be problematic or states trying to make it more difficult whether by mail or in person, to the conditions of the serious pandemic so longterm structural issues that have been with us for a long time how we vote with voting of civil rights as a civic duty. And for many years against the wealthy and then rapidly approaching the. 70 percent of the people have 30 percent of the senators and 30 percent have 70 percent. [inaudible] and with the votes of other states. With a small number of battleground states and lastly to elections already in the 21st century Electoral College has delivered if they lost the popular vote. That seems like a pretty serious indictment of this Longstanding Institution and why we still have the Electoral College. So what motivated you to get in here to write the book . Before addressing the question thank you for the generous introduction and also thank you to Harvard Bookstore for sponsoring this event. I am very grateful. But to write the book and happened in two stages. The first was the 2000 election when the person who won the most votes did not become president and that set off questions in my mind why do we do it like this . And then the second stage which was at the history of the institution and then with the hundred and 900 constitutional amendments. Now 10 percent of all constitutional amendments of the Electoral College. So also discovered that on six occasions and with that constitutional amendment so that surprised me. Also Public Opinion polls overwhelmingly favored now that took a bit after the 2016 election then to be in favor of the Electoral College. In of that favored reform and then just 19 percent of favorable reform. And then Public Opinion favorite this. We have a history of dysfunction and reform and then to figure this out what is the conventional answer to the question the small states get the extra increment by having the National Popular vote. It turns out thats not true. And then to disguise and so why do we have that . And scholarly inquiry to mirror the question in every few years why do we elect cabinets is way . Take it back. So with that or a sanctity and how that selection of president s be the subject of deep and thorough thinking. So tell us how that came to be at the constitutional conventio convention. And with that question of how to choose a chief executive. And then the default option which most people see that congress would choose the president. And on several occasions they had straw votes in the majority may have said yes congress should choose the president. And then a couple days later say no, thats not a good idea because there is no separation of power and then to go around and around with the National Popular vote and governors choosing the president. They cannot come to a resolution and now they still not have an answer they were tired and under pressure they were on can and then to try to iron out the unfinished parts so to me that was consistent with the group that came up with the Electoral College and those factors that contribute , the best way to understand what they came up with it was built around this default notion Electoral College is a replica the same number of senators and representatives and a replica of congress that performs only one function and then disbands so it cannot be corrupted. Thats what we came up with that. Interesting. Small state versus big state was that the only issue . At the moment in this country we are realizing just how many things can be reviewed or looked at through the lens of racism Structural Racism and slavery. So im guessing with that perspective things come up with the Electoral College. The impact is enormous. Thats not to say i dont disagree but im not one of those who claim those that were created to protect the slaveholders. And it was imported into the Electoral College but not the reason for it. But certainly there is no possible consideration. In the most powerful story of reform comes with the 18 eighties through the 1970s. The core fact that southern politicians were firmly and ferociously opposed to a National Popular vote. They were disenfranchised. And at that point so many whites benefited and in effect those i got representation and electoral votes with the states entire population and white and black only whites were permitted to vote this is disproportionate to southern whites and they feared because if they adopted a National Popular vote they would surrender a great deal. And one was it would diminish their clout because it was stated in a slightly different way so the influence of the state depends on the population. It depends on how many people turn out to vote. The southern whites benefited and they kept it off the table. And then we can talk about this later but they derailed when we came closest and i can talk about this if people are interested later but there are many othe epi key book. Winner take all is not in the constitution and had the power to decide and how to be allocated by the 18 thirties it becomes the rule. But at the end of the 19th century is an extraordinary episode taking place in michigan that was republican dominated majority state like most states. Fiftyfive 45 republican. And in the 1891 of the first things they did was to create a district. So if you want a district then it would basically split. That is an ageold proposal and James Madison in the 18 twenties was in favor, jefferson was in favor, and it had been the preferred option among republicans in congress in the 18 seventies. So what happens the entire republican establishment in michigan turns against this and denounces this after john minor and announce the law as a crime against democracy. The president of the United States harrison, gets involved in starts crusading. Basically they do winner take all then they have the emergency convening of the Supreme Court to fight over this issue. And to say you cant allow district elections. That the question is the republicans who favored in 1877 was treated like the plague. So the south had become solidly democratic. And dennis republicans as well as africanamericans. So those systems were created. No gains for the republicans in the south but they would lose about 45 percent of the electoral votes. In conclusion they would never again when a president ial election. And then in michigan republicans go back into power and then invasion about this attempted reform of the gerrymandering also Voter Suppression lies laws that they remained solidly in power the next 50 years in michigan until the new deal. Second, taking place in the 19 sixties, it had to do with Democratic Values and wallace as a kingmaker and then to that support grows tremendously through 1960. Chamber of commerce, aflcio, to get them to agree on anything is unlikely. They all favorite Electoral College reform. 1969 the house passes a constitutional amendment to abolish the Electoral College and replace with the national vote. One thing i found interesting in that. In my early twenties focusing on the Antiwar Movement i had no idea this was happening in congress. I think very few people know about it. That passes and then goes to the senate and gets a lot of momentum. If you read the newspapers it looks like it will happen. But key southern senators slow it down. It has to go through the Judiciary Committee James Eastland of mississippi he slows it down and creates delay after delay it is a year filled with regional tensions the southerners are nominated to the Supreme Court and they are both rejected by the senate. And then add that are battle with the issues of race and region one dash are paramount but thank you to the machinations of the senator the amendment does reach the senate floor september 70 and greeted by a filibuster by Strom Thurmond and other southerners. But the strategy of using a filibuster it was odd to prove you also need the two thirds vote and then you need to chances to block it. The advocates of reform never reached the two thirds mark in the senate. It was heavenly heavily regional. 70 percent of senators from outside the south with a similar percentages of them voting against so in the 20th century to calm closest. So back to the point where race was critical. Speaking of reform, now there is discussion again of Electoral College reform. We dont know exactly what impact it will have in the 2020 election. But there is a movement for a National Popular vote for the interstate compact. What is your general sense of the possibility of reform and what format that might take if it comes about . Ending up as an optimist but the possibilities of reform are realistic. But in the next few years and within the next decade. And then to make a couple of comments with the interstate compact that is state can join a compact it can attest all of the electoral votes for the candidate who wins the National Popular vote not the state but the National Popular vote. It takes effect if you have a total of 270 electoral votes has signed off. The 15 states and the district of columbia have signed on. Only 75 short of winning. Its important to contextualize where the compact came from. It originated formally in 2006 in response to the 2000 election and the fact Republican Opposition in congress which is been staunch since 1980. The Republican Party movement was bipartisan. That has not been true since the early eighties. And then to get a constitutional amendment through congress and its a way to circumvent that process. The ingenious idea or cluster of ideas to be organized. My own view is that if the compact comes close to succeeding the strategy would be then to convert itself for a constitutional amendment. If i ever go into effect every lawyer in the United States would have work to do with the lawsuits and also it is inherently unstable. But the new constitutional amendments introduced into congress within the last six months, and i think the combination of grassroots with the Democratic Energy with the possibilities for this. I have another question but a quick reminder to the audience if they have a question, go ahead. We will have the questions brokered for us. Thinking of the 2020 election that whatever you think today will be completely different two weeks in. That said in 2016 we had the election where Hillary Clinton beat donald trump by 3 million votes but lost Electoral College significantly. Can you imagine a situation in 2020 the democratic nominee wins by 5 million and loses in the Electoral College. What is your sense of what impact it might play in the 2020 election . Building on your comment the unspoken but important truth is that there is relatively little concern with the National Popular vote. It seems only to be in doubt because of the Electoral College. I dont think anyone thinks trump will win the popular vote against joe biden. We could be wrong. But its only the Electoral College that seems to be making this into a competitive race and then it might not be. It is affecting the strategies on both sides the that is a reforming feature doesnt matter by how much california or new york or texas. Just matters that you win and with the structure of winner take all it provides the incentive for Voter Suppression. If you are in a state that is close you can suppress two or 3 percent that is not a marginal increase of two or 3 percent but could give you all of the electoral votes. So there is the incentive of suppressing votes under the Electoral College. Another scenario circulating whether this election will happen i am weary of those that are chosen in the manner they can decide. Which means they do not have to have a popular election. They can cancel that and override if they have reasons, the results. This almost happened in florida when the legislature was prepared to prove the cases but im worried that could happen in this election in florida and North Carolina or wisconsin where confusions become a rationale for the legislature to choose its own electorates. I hope thats not true but the structure is shaping the election. Hopefully we get more impetus for reform after. Caller hi. We have a good batch of questions. Its my understanding the nebraska popular row are proportioned to the Electoral College vote and why dont more states do this . Good question nebraska does use a district system as does main. But if your state has a dominant Political Party it generally doesnt want to do that because that means that to circumvent that but then to have the dominant party. So when the viewpoint of the winner take all and they might agree they have a more proportional system with gerrymandering, nobody wants to go first. That has been the core problem. In 2007 or 2008 the North Carolina Legislature Democratic at the time and then the National Democratic party said they dont want you to do this. Why . There was a Simultaneous Movement in california by republicans to move to a district system that could have had 22 electoral votes in california so they said we have to be consistent thats a summary. And just to add a quick comment one of the reason the National Popular vote is designed the way it is no state wants to go first so there is some logic in that as well. Why dont we have a National Night Nonpartisan Party to drop the maps by the republican governor and state in the swing states . The answer i would say we dont have such a body because the law has to be passed by congress with the gerrymandered districts who precisely dont want to do that. The problem with gerrymandering is immense and it is a partisan issue and can be solved unless there is a change of the composition of congress. When the act was passed in 2002 after the florida debacle, they created the Election Assistance Commission the states resisted any authority they didnt even call it the Election Agency that the assistance commission. I do feel there has been some interesting progress over the last ten years. And the states will because of the commission or the partisan changes or Ballot Initiatives it will actually be much closer to being nonpartisan in 2021 then it has been until now im an optimist. What caused the tectonic shift within the Republican Party because they were so against reform compared to the sixties . Thats a very good question. A couple of things happened. One was that the republicans in office a significant number was a different breed from the sixties. Eighties is a symbolic year when reagan was elected. And he was for riches the opposed to Electoral College reform in the seventies in contrast forward and dole favored Electoral College reform. So you can see the very conservative wing of the Republican Party and also that conservative wing is increasingly a Southern Party but then what happens by the mid and early nineties there is widespread talk about the republican lock on the Electoral College because your winning president ial elections based on that. The core notion is demographic and the view is the states growing most rapidly in the south and southwest were the states that were also republican they would gain electoral votes while the liberal areas would lose votes in the 2000 election affirms the notion so we came very close to a right on reverse dynamic when john kerry it doesnt phase republican thinkers at all. To what degree is small rural areas do not have the position to influence results . With my research i cannot tell you exactly this minute there are real conservative and progressive states. I spent a lot of time in vermont a small population state. Im quite start on certain the state of Bernie Sanders would be in favor of reform may be the midwest might be different. Even in the slower rural areas even like utah came very close to joining the compact know solidly republican states have joined it looks like utah may be i think the fear with the rule states we will get swamped by the popular votes of the most populous states that somebody said in the seventies its hardly any different than it is now with the Electoral College. The next question is today what is the most effective tactic for political activity for people who want to work that they want to end the Electoral College should adopt . Thank you for buying the book. I hope everybody sitting near you does that. This is not imaginative but to elect into office in your legislature make it an issue with people who share that opinion. And maybe even in november. Electoral college is in the entity that in each state it will meet in december you have much more experience organizing what would you say . I think that if the Electoral College is in the middle of whatever controversy around the election the first step is to give the issue much more visibility. But if there are political changes in a number of states, you could get the interstate compact closer thats an interesting strategy that if he gets really close then it could shift into a constitutional amendment strategy. But its electing people who care about reform. General democratic reform and ending the filibuster its a matter of electing people who supported and then taking whatever energy into the 2021 political debates. Are faceless electors significant what you think of that decision . Historically over time this hasnt been significant they never determine the outcome of the election or will not come close. Going back to the south from the 19 forties on and to be gained prominence there were a lot of southerns who didnt want to vote for the Democratic Party even though they were democrats. I dont think its a big issue. But as a Supreme Court issue i supported larrys position on this. And as a historian i would have to say that i find it difficult to believe that justices that see themselves as an originalist could not recognize the constitution intended electors to have the ability to debate and make their own decisions that they should be defended and the rationale of the court that i thought were pretty weak for overcoming that. They seem to be intent on a strategy that Justice Cavanagh was talking about during oral arguments. But i dont think it will matter much. I want to be cognizant of the time. What word president ial campaigning look like if we switched to a National Popular vote versus the battleground states . The answer is i know nobody else does either. [laughter] it is true. It would look very different. Everything would be concentrated in the large media markets but its also true that a vote is a vote the matter where you pick it up and the strategies to pick it up all sorts of peace on places the 2008 primary season with obama he picked it up from the small voters and they added that so i think it would be new rules and certainly an election in which we are all addressed by the candidates in the messaging is different but those of us in massachusetts the campaign happens someplace else and now you can turn out for your candidate even if you win and they havent received consequences but i think it will be beneficial. Thank you to everybody. Here is the book i have read a good chunk of it and it is fascinating with all kinds of stories. I encourage you again. If there is a story you feel like telling at some point in the history other than what you have already said want to give you a chance and then have you close. What you want that take a way to be about the future . Okay. The story, it is a weird story. Starting in the late forties and fifties there is a movement in congress to require the allocation of electorates proportionately and sponsored by Henry Cabot Lodge of massachusetts with the National Popular vote and wanted to see the Republican Party in the south. The cosponsor was a very right wing sponsor from texas. He wanted to have a proportionate system and doing speeches on the floor of congress to limit the power of jews and blacks and italians in new york state and basically wanted to break up the power and gave extraordinary speeches of the labour party. Remarkably the amendment is passed by the senate in 1950. They were asleep at the switch so the liberals do not know what was going on. Then after it gets passed it only seems superficial but then members of congress coupled with outside africanamerican advisers recognize this is aimed at from the point of view is killing the civil rights movement. By diminishing the power of key northern states to make the south the strongest wing of the Democratic Party. So in a period of six weeks it is a remarkable moment that is passed by a two thirds vote in the senate and six weeks later voted down by two thirds vote by the house of representatives. Thats my last story. Anticommunism and racism is something about the anxiety attached to politics. When my father wanted my mother to leave the party he would say make your concluding remarks because she didnt want to leave. [laughter] make your concluding remarks. [laughter] thank you for staying with us and participating. What i want to say in terms of the question of the book why do we still have the Electoral College . There are multiple factors. Its hard to amend the constitution. Racial tensions play a major role that are not in a very positive or progressive election. But the intricacies of the institution are such to make reform difficult. So the aspect we havent talk about is that election system. So what happens if nobody wins a majority . And that you have to win a majority. Then it goes to the house of representatives for each state gets one vote. So those that have the same influence. This is created the way the framers try to protect small state not Electoral College votes. But by the 20th century its clear to everybody it was profoundly undemocratic and as my bellwether example, Mitch Mcconnell even thought this should be reformed in 1982. But throughout the 19th and 20th century we have failed in general because it is unacceptable for Different Reasons to reform this piece and leave all the other pieces standing. One conservative point was to modify in a more democratic way but only if a large tree on states agreed. So the complexity of the institution has made change difficulty and not always visible from the outside. The last comment i want to make is that one of the lessons of the book to me, is that political circumstances change. In the parties and the individuals have changed over time and over circumstances. Even though its a book about defeat ic and optimism in the long run and energize growth and democracy. And those circumstances permit change. In the history of womens suffrage and that seem to have been knocked out of the box with the early 20th century and then the law of the land. Thank you. That was fabulous. I learned a lot and i already read the book. Hopefully others will have learned something as well and by the book. Thank you to both of you for this fascinating conversation and to all of you out there spending your evening with us. Learn more about this book and purchased why do we still have the Electoral College at harvard. Com. I posted the link and the donation link. On behalf of Harvard Bookstore have a good night. Keep reading and stay safe. Just a second. Thank you for doing such an effective job and even my old friend myles to doing this so splendidly. Absolutely. Have a good evening. Host we are focusing on books written by former first ladies. The first first lady to venture into publishing was known one who recalls her time in the white house 1914 and since then ten other first ladies have published memoirs. We will focus tonight on five women who have served in that position in the last 50 years. First up, Rosalynn Carter who served as first lady from 19771981 and she is the author of five books