To carnegie connects. Issues of americans in the world. The last discussion was the afternoon with a simple question, what foreign factor, our lee panelists, and myself included new the answer to that question before with we began. Not so today. The request he we pose, will american democracy survive november 3rd and beyond, is unanswerable. It may be overly dramatically rendered, but there are simply tomorrow unknowns and too many uncertainties and fears about the consequences of this election. However, there are also hopes. Rachel had written reflecting the fact for many its hard to imagine that the u. S. Wont find a way to muddle. Through. Ross argued in the New York Times on sunday that well definitely muddle through and then some. Let me quote what he said. Meanwhile, the scenarios that have been spun out in reputable publications where trump induces republican state legislators to overrule the clear outcome or militia violent intimidates the Supreme Court into vacating a Biden Victory bear no relationship to the trump experience that weve experienced. Our chief executive is not plotting a coup. Terms plotting 0 requires a conspicuous thing that he lacks. Maybe. But the american story would inexorably triumph and everything is going to be okay, cannot, and should never be taken for granted. They didnt take it for granted and neither did some of our president s and leaders. The rarely has this republic been more at sea and elections taking place of the sense of greater criessy and unfortunately, not to many the problem of mailin ballots which would constitute a huge percentage of votes counted. I would count at least five crises interlocked. The pandemic and threat to global hit since the influenza of 1918. An economic recession which has many economists scratching their heads as to structural problems and challenges in the economy. Poll lahrization and he biffle unrest. A loss of confidence in our institutions from the office to the census the and a president , the first in american history, who has already said repeatedly and publicly that he will not abide by the results of the election. As bart gellman has noted, trump may win or lose, but he will never concede and concession is more than just a ritualist ritualistic formulaic speech. Its a symbol that legitimizes the peaceful transfer of power in our electoral system. So how bad could it get . Are any of the nightmare scenarios associated with that likely. What are the Court Challenges to the election . And do we have the institutional guardrails, congress, the court, the constitution to keep us on track . As rachel has pointed out. How do we begin with with the political contract. And quoting Martin Luther king, quote, our lives begin to end the day we become silent about the things that matter. So, what can we do about all of this, this challenge before this threat before it materializes if and when it does . We have three extraordinary presenters to lead us out and create some reality based answers. Ill skip their resumes, Michael Steele is a Senior Advisor to the lincoln project. Mark, a writer in the atlantic. And youve seen his article and author as well as best selling angler, changing vicepresidency and Rachel Kleinfeld senior fellow where she focuses and i might add excels in an extraordinary fashion in writing and speaking on issues from the rule of law to security to governance and in fragile state. And its simple. Well open and round of q a from the audience. As far as the q a, ill read the instruction, well have a live q a section, use the live chat feature in youtube. Email Us Press Office at ceip. Org or tweet at us at carnegie and dow, using the carnegie connects. The droned on for too long. Michael, over to you. No problem, thanks and i appreciate it. Its great to be here and its particularly fun to be on a panel with rachel whom ive gotten to know and work with over the past year or so and i agree with everything youve said. Its incredible insightful talent. Ap its great to be with you and appreciate the work youre doing over at the atlantic. And so lets get right into the question because i think its an important one, will democracy survive november 3rd . And the short answer is, yeah, yeah, it will. It may look a little different, but it will. You know, its kind of ironic that ive got some of my republican friends, like senator mike lee saying were not a democrat say and thats the most important thing now. And that the fact of the matter is it goes to the heart of the answer to the point, it survives if you want it to. It survives if we, the people, want it to and that quote from dr. King, which for me is so salient and important right now, that you know, we really become our own end when we sort of turned our blind eye to things that matter. We in this democracy. We end this grand american experiment when we decide no longer to care about the things that matter. So, folks, what matters to you . This election matters to a lot of americans. The outcome of this election matters to a lot of americans, but even more important than that is the various institutions that have safeguarded our rights and liberties from our courts to our executive branches, to president to county executive. Theyve all played a role in securing the promise that laid out in our finding documents. You know, while the execution of those ideas and eideals have been flawed and problematic over the years, the underlying words matter. We the people in order to form a more Perfect Union. It didnt say to form a Perfect Union or to say that we were. Were constantly striving in this republic to create a voice and to give power to people. So when i looked at this election, thats paramount for me. Its why i stand in opposition to my own party because i feel theyve walked away from those ideas and those values for the musings and the rantings of one man. George washington proved that this country was not just about one person, it was not about one individual. Donald trump, unfortunately, is trying to prove him wrong and i have faith in reliance in the American People when they look at this and they see where we are and what this means to them and their families, who more importantly to the future of this country, that they will step into the power that is granted the granted to them in those founding words, we the people. The Court Challenges that we face right now, and to having a legitimate election is how we shore up those institutions, so the writings of individuals like bart and the work of individuals like rachel and a lot of smart people across this country matters now more than ever before. Their ability to coalesce and condense ideas and facts and information to inform the citizenry not just about what is at stake, but the undertrying truths that support whats at stake. That supports an open, free, Fair Election where we see litigation now in places like texas where the goorn said we only want one dropoff box in a county of five Million People. Let that sink in. No, thats not voting suppression, they say, at all. Five Million People going to one location to drop off their ballot, yeah, thats voter suppression. So being informed and engaged and understanding what the thing is youre seeing and hearing matters at these times, theyre why conversation like this with people way smarter than me. Im just a political guy, a guy that happened to be elected in politics, but i rely on my secretaries of state, you know, and people who have studied this, the political scientists. The lawyers and you know, the folks who kind of deal with the machinations of these things and we all understand exactly whats at stake. The process what happens over the next few weeks leading up to the election certainly is a number between the election and the inauguration itself does matter. To help me understand exactly what to expect on the back in. Yes, we have a president who is saying he wants his supporters to go people watchers. Lets be clear about that. They just cant show up and be poll watchers. Being a poll watcher is a specific regulated position in every county in this country. You have the county parties and the state parties have to identify ahead of time who those poll watchers are. I just get you in my neighborhood poll and start, you know, injecting myself into that process. So understanding what can be done, what cant be done, the consequences of violations that may occur does matter and thats why conversations like this are so important and at so glad to be part of this. Ill turn over now so smart people can lay down some your reputation has preceded you. You have given us all i think me for sure most enthusiasm. I wouldnt rule out by the way the root of politicians. The problem you describe, its necessary. Its critically important, necessary to the repair of what ails us. Through not sufficient. Committed individuals like you involved in the public conversation and political process, thats also going to be extremely important. Thanks again. Barton gellman, over to you. Well, i find michael reassuring, because it sort of voice of experience plus someone paying very, very close attention to whats happening now and can look at things with a bit of perspective. I am nonetheless somewhat more concerned i think about the prospects for a normal election or fourth digging through it intact at the far end or for getting this will not be a normal election. Well already passed that. Theres no chance of it. We have a president who has worked hard to the legitimate the vote count come to tell people and advanced that they cannot trust that the vote count will be accurate. There is almost nothing that could undermine the electoral process more than that. Then to have an Authority Figure telling you that the one mechanism we have for deciding who rules us, who we the people are delegating our political power to is broken, is filled with fraud, is rigged. Trump has said explicitly, and not offthecuff but in his prepared remarks as he accepted the republican nomination for president on august 24, he said the only way that we can lose this election is if the vote is rigged. So he has already ruled out the possibility that we the people, democratically, by our own accurate volition are going to remove him from power. I mean, in any of the if the ruler said that, we would be very concerned. He also is given several versions as weve all heard of a refusal to guarantee that he would honor the results of the election and enable a peaceful transfer of power. The one that was most alarming to me is the one, you always have to be careful about in too much coherence on the sort of what comes out of his mouth but i thought the message was fairly clear. He said in answer to the question about peaceful transfer of power, well, as you know we have a very big problem with the ballots and ballot fraud and he think he meant the mail in ballots picky set if you fix that then it would be a peaceful, and he switched directions in this sentence, and he said there wont be a transfer, frankly. It would be a continuation. He is saying that if the counting goes, the only way he thinks its acceptable then he is reelected. I think we can safely say based on his record and based on his actual words that under no circumstances literally will trump concede defeat in this election. And that turns out to be a very big deal because concession is the way weve ended elections in this country for well over 100 years. Its the moment of conception that tells you the fight is over, and as a political scientist would say is constituted of the authority of incoming president. It is that more than any other single fact about the election. Because we have no umpire. This is a game in which we dont have someone who keeps track of the score, keeps track of the time, blows the whistle and says okay, well, you won and you lost your edit doesnt matter how much the players or the coaches bellyache about it. Thats the result. Its over and everyone understands the decisive result has been achieved. People sometimes talk about the risk with trump are the concern even though it sounds fantastical, is he might lose election and refused to leave. Add in fact, our system does know very well how to respond to that. He would be escorted out and he would have some help with his luggage and the oval office would be ready for the next occupant. Thats not the concern. The concern is that trump could use the power in his office and the power of his control over his followers to prevent a decisive result from being obtained come to prevent a decisive result against him. We have never had a president who has said amidst the count that there is fraud happening, the vote is being rigged before our eyes. It is unclear how we will respond to that especially if he uses the power of his office, if an alternative official point of view. Not just his twitter account, not just the words that come up when he faces a microphone but actions of the government itself. Suppose that the Justice Department announces a a fraudn progress and an immediate investigation and the vote is being counted. Still votes are counted as evidence. Postal inspectors find irregularities with the male vote and suspend delivery of mail ballots. Or decide to reprocess everything to make sure that they valid postmark is been applied. Its action at the case that the Postal Service requires by regulation postmark be stamped on every letter, but election laws in some states require a postmark for mail in ballots. So suppose the postal inspectors say lets make sure we reprocess all these and theres a ballot and legible postmark to comply with electoral law, and by doing so takes things past the deadline. Trump as actual government power under law that could be abused and might even be found to be unlawful eventually after the fact that we dont get do overs in the election. And after the fact isnt good enough. Theres also what happens on election day itself. This is the first election in 40 years that is taking place without the oversight of a federal court over republican quoteunquote ballot security measures, which is another word for voter suppression. There is a pretext of guarding against voter fraud. Voter fraud is almost entirely a fictional concept. It is vanishingly rare. There was a good study done of 1 billion votes cast between 200024, of which 31 were identified as fraudulent. 31 out of 1 billion, which is the scale of the problem if you can call a problem. It certainly has the prospect whatsoever of affecting the results of an election but on grounds of voter fraud my crowns of this pretext republicans used to do things like they would have offduty police and sheriffs, and former military folks and large, scary people carrying guns, wearing armbands confronting voters, demanding to review their credentials to vote, warning its a felony to vote if youre if you are not r if youre in the wrong precinct, putting up big signs general intimidating people of color in minority neighborhoods, and trump has, for example, called up philadelphia which happens to be a large democratic stronghold and an essential swing state that he must win to be president , and he may be behind in the polls in pennsylvania but he taken shave a couple of points off by intimidating voters on the date of and by calling for mailin votes not to be counted, then who knows where that goes . Then there is what michael mentioned which is all interim between election date and the swearingin of the new president. There are milestones in the process that actually decide who the president is going to be. Ordinarily they are mere formalities and even a wellinformed voter would be forgiven for not knowing that december 14 is a very big day. Thats when the Electoral College meets and actually casts its ballots for the january 6 is a very big day which is when Congress Formally counts the votes that have been cast by the Electoral College. And there are many opportunities as i described in my piece for the atlantic for a candidate who has influence over fellow members and his party to interfere with the normal function of the Electoral College or the normal functioning of the count. And i think if you take trump seriously as a man who will not concede and it was prepared to breach all norms and boundaries, as long as he can get away with it, then the question is going to be how far the American Public will allow him to go, how far fellow members of his party will allow him to go. If you ask the average republican senator or member of the house or governor, state legislator, whether they would allow the president to steal the election, whether they would allow the president to use his power to keep control of his office, notwithstanding the votes of the people, they would all say no. And they would probably mean it. But if they are committed already, as they are, to a narrative of voter fraud, and if trump says its not that ive been outvoted, its that the count has been poisoned, im not as confident that i know how they will respond. And thats the concern that we have to guard against, and thats why every citizen needs to think about what his or her relationship is to this election, whether its as a voter, as a poll watcher, whether their job has anything to do with securing the election. Not Everyone Needs to be thinking about what they will do if extraconstitutional means are used to try to interfere with the actual results of the election. Well, i got michael, lighten the load attached. Barth, thats as great a presentation as you may become reflected in your piece. So that leads Rachel Kleinfeld, the task of navigating, and she is superbly equipped and able to do. So rachel, let me turn it over to you. Thank you. This is quite the group to follow and of going to play goldilocks here. Im going to fall in between Michael Steele incredible optimism and parts pessimism. Its nice to play goldilocks when you work on democracy and decline of failing from corruption and of violent insu. Usual im in arts shoes of this is good for me. First lets take election is happening. The elections having right now. Theres been 69 votes cast and probably more at this point. Its been open in new mexico for voting for over a week. There are long lines in georgia. Theyre been opening day challenges in many places but so far were mostly muddling through. However, that doesnt mean we will continue to muddle through, and the numbers are not looking great in terms of what americans are worried about. Some more in common which is a group that works against polarization around the world, they found 71 of americans are worried about Political Violence in this election. Thats an enormous number. A group of our best political scientists, larry diamond, lee drummond, the people doing the polar who have been doing polling unamerican attitude for years were so concerned about the findings on violence that they hold all the numbers together, all there pulls together and came out with a piece about two weeks ago that i think for various reasons the numbers may be an highside, the numbers discounter a pretty alarming. One in three democrats and republicans, the numbers are quite similar on both sides, feel violence is of a somewhat justified to advance their political goals. About one in five say that violence is a lot more great deal justified if their side loses. How did we get to this . We are extremely, we are all on a tightrope right now. We are all worried because of the pandemic. People are highly stress. People are at home. You see this reflected in violent figures pick and places that have local lockdowns in april, march and april, use searches for whats a premises content rise by 21 . People dont do well when they are socially cut off, when they are isolated from the normal life, when they are seeking normal life online and thats part of whats going on together part of course is our enemies political polarization, across every area of our identity. The last part is what bart has been talking about. We have an extraordinary president , and i dont mean that integrate way. We have a president a president such as weve never had before who was priming people for fraud. Close to three in four americans feel the longer we have to wait for results, the more likely it is that this is a fraudulent election. Only four in ten feel the government is committed to keeping the election secure. The federal government, if thats the really point because there are things to build on and up going to get to have the part of this at the end. The things to build on our own l and state governments with us much more trust. And where people believe they can do much more to affect the process come to affect their democracy. Aaron wanted us to answer up at this can get that a lot of my time is spent living in the nightmare scenario that bart sketched in his piece. He can get very bad. America has had a civil war. America has that instances of severe Political Violence in the late 60s. Weve had president ial assassinations. I would rather not spending my time walking everyone through those nightmares. I think we all know those nightmares. My greatest concern as was and what i believe is this time during the process of counting to step elections are closed. Thats because theres some intense evidence that people are not going to accept that both what i cited already but also just looking at the swing states. Pennsylvania and wisconsin, two major swing states katie mr. Counted absentee ballots until after polls closed. Were expecting unprecedented numbers of absentee ballots, more than the majority of ballots and more than half the ballots might be absentee ballots. You cant even start counting. Its a slow process to count. The people who are counting often dependent on state law have to sit on those folding metal chairs. They are older, these are often 60 and 70yearold ladies were working the polls the way they have been for many, many years, working 18 hour days, starting to count at the evening after polls closed. In michigan there not allowed to work in shifts. They have to use the same people. This is just a set up for people making mistakes and getting tired and so on, with no political fault. Just because they are human beings. Michigan gave them one extra day. That was that big change was suddenly they get one extra day to start counting these absentee votes. So we can expect it is going to be problems. One of the problems with those problems is absentee voting is going to be extremely lopsided. It shouldnt have been. I wrote a whole series of articles early in the summer with republican who happens to be my brother about the importance of recognizing that republicans can win in absentee voting, and they have in florida but theres a reason to think of this as a partisan issue. Nevertheless, the president s proclamation throughout the summer means republicans are voting in person at far higher rates were as democrats request absentee bows at much higher rates especially in these swing states. What youre likely to see is whats called a blueshift or a red mirage where numbers that look very red on Election Night slowly turn blue overtime. A lot of people are going to see that and theyre going to be primed for fraud, they will say this as evidence things are going wrong. Meanwhile, theres over 200 lawsuits on to you count the votes come to count the votes if theyre not postmarked . All sorts of lawsuits about the minutia which might be determinative in key states, and the democrats are going to see some of those lawsuits and say this election is being stolen. Thats the kind of thing that is going to lead to people on the streets, people turn to violence when they feel they dont have legitimate political voice, when normal politics is exposed. Uss model to a long time. We have a very old democracy mostly built on dorms of forbearance of these ideas that we dont just steal elections. But we have history stealing elections in this country going back to the reconstruction period, and countries that have history of Political Violence are more at risk of future Political Violence. We fall into that category. Our creaky system is mostly rely a lost the written right after, written in the reconstruction. Back after the civil and their great compromise and the writ has great compromise of anyone who tries to read those laws can find a lot of loopholes and if it comes to reading those laws to determining this election theres going to to be a lot of room for different sidestep different interpretations and theres room for both of those things. I have been saying many times where an old democracy but were also a young democracy. America only really started to integrate the africanamerican vote in the mid1960s, and it was a hell of a fight. That was our last big moment of major Political Violence. Then we turn all sorts of techniques to try to keep that vote down again, and now as bart was st. Marys loss of been released and that vote can be suppressed or openly. It might be. We have to recognize that we have muddled through in a way thats not the best from a democracy that should be represented all of its people, and we are at a point right now where the stakes are quite high for many people who feel that they are losing their legacy of privilege. So i will just end up with the upbeat part of this, which is if you have a vote that is very, very decisive, we should not get to some of these nightmare scenarios. The best way to make the vote very for decisive is to vote early where you can, by absentee or in person if you can do that. Most of the problems with the vote of when the vote gets down to the lincoln when youre voting right new the end when youre going to lake that kind of thing. We should also keep some perspective. Violence is incredibly no right now. We are at the early 1960s violence and Political Violence tracks criminal violence. They are very tightly related both of them to trust in government and in our fellow people. We are at very low levels of violence and even with all of the protests this summer, all of the mayhem this summer in many, many cities, the National Guard come in, dhs trips and so on, we had very little violence this summer and thats worth keeping in mind. Its nothing like i was going up in 80s and early 90s. We can speak to our own size, this is bob is a problem both sides normalizing violence and both sides are much more credible in speaking to his own size about the gigantic body of research that says it just doesnt work. It might make you feel good. It doesnt work for anything anyone is trying to achieve. And while both side to justify it and it is extremely lopsided in which leaders are justifying it. And he republicans need to speak to their own site. Theres no way around. The Republican Leaders need to say that violence is not an acceptable way to run an election if they dont theyre going to be a nondemocratic party and weve seen what happens in other countries when a nondemocratic party exists in a democratic quality. Its not good. The last thing is we all had to take a deep breath. I like michaels favorite adult beverage, i will be drinking straight whiskey. We just need to wait. Just not can be an election they pick is going election week, maybe two weeks, it will take a long time to count. Dont forget al franken took months before he was steeped in his senate race. This is not incredibly unusual. And taking a breath at that point and understanding the count is is going to take time and it does mean anyone is dealing anything. Its actually how our process is supposed to work. We will go quite a long way to forestalling violence afterwards. Rachel, you succeed in navigating between michael and martin on the other. My first question, how to avoid an election season, i mean, gore v. Bush when two days before the Electoral College convened to vote december 12 to the Supreme Court ruled out of want to get to the institutional guidelines. If youre looking back over the last several years quickly, how well do you think the executive branch under this president has been constrained . How well has been media, congress, the courts, Public Opinion done in constraining . Why is there no adjudicators . Theres really no one or no thing that we can rely on in this interregnum. Thats going to help save us. But either institutional guidelines i could actually function during this period, congress, the courts, guides from the constitution, and beatty, Public Opinion . Have nothing to fall back on in the event of barts all too real and very grim scenarios play out . Rachel, let me begin with you since you have looked at institutional guardrails a lot. Sure. This is a glass half empty halffull kind of question and he must say it depends on how i wake up that morning, which i am at on any day. I would say that america has done a remarkable job actually so far constraining a leader with a fairly imperial presidency. The presidency go in power over the years. Our congress has been giving up its power for 25 years. Its really been on the back foot. Our Political Parties have been weakening over the years, particularly the Republican Party i would say has outsourced its get out the vote operation to churches. Outsources communications to talk radio fox. It outsources funding mechanism to the major donor groups so the very weak party, excessive rising a populist authoritarian was able to take it over. You see that in other countries with weak parties. Given how weak or institutions have been without a pretty good job of constraining some of the worst of what could have been. We are not doing things were done in the past. We have an major groups of citizens within a country. We havent removed Voting Rights altogether for major groups of citizens and our country has a history of doing these things. We havent done those things under this president. So thats good. We also have some institutions that are still quite strong. I do a lot of work with the military. Our military is really a bastion of a political nonpartisan bastion. They do not want to be political. Did you know what to be politicized. Theyre concerned about how this president might use them especially given what happened this summer in lafayette square. Quite concerned and i think they will do everything they can to make sure they are not politicized so i think theres a lot that we can be proud of and glad of thats happened so far. On the other hand, are institutions are weaker than they used to be and i think the weakest right now and what im most concerned about is the courts whenever you populist authoritarian you seen the going after tonight institutions first. When is the doj or dojs, the prostitute agencies, the second is the courts. They want to weaken those things because with entities are strong its the most constraining on what they can do. What weve seen is a Republican Party thats been so desirous of power through the courts that theyve been okay with it going along with that weakening, and thats really concerning because we need both parties to uphold the nature of a political corporate thats hard and america. Our courts are typically political in court honored and its unusual for other countries threat that, and right now the level of politicization of the topic at the Supreme Court level particularly could destroy our courts, to destroy our ability to trust them and then we are really up the creek. Thanks. Im watching my phone. Says New York Times is reporting that virginias online voter poll went down today. The final day to election to register for election when a fiber optics cable assemblies are interesting. Michael, pick up on rachels point people watching confirmation hearings of a Supreme Court justice there is precedent for adjudication, to use barts term to the course in an american election. Do you want to share with us in views you have on the Supreme Courts role on this or potential . The Supreme Courts role is, i think the justices would tell you this, is a limited role. They are the last, the last stop that you get to. Not just because its the Supreme Court but because the way the electoral process is set up, it is designed actually to try to avoid adjudication to the Supreme Court. And folks look back at the 2000 bush v. Gore election, and what they missed in that process was a miscalculation of the democrats, which triggered the Supreme Court access. The thing to keep in mind that a lot of people dont know about how we elect the president is in that interregnum there is a constitutional process, there is a clock that automatically kicks on. The president , the challenger to the president , the congress, they cant stop the clock unless there is affirmative congressional action to do so, and thats just not likely to happen whereby at a certain date electors have to meet, at a certain date the congress has to confirm the decision of the electors. So theres a process. The when you go back and look at that election, what you realize is that the fundamental question that the gore team had before them, they took door number two instead of door number one. The question was door number one, do we do a statewide recount . Four door number two, do we do a local recount of those counties we havent question . The choice they made was such that it automatically triggered the clock. So understand how the process works and the Supreme Court had to step in it that point, they had to make a decision. The Supreme Court, you know, weighed in favor of bush. No, they waived in favor of the votes have been counted based on the process chosen by the democrats at that time. And so the court can only go by the votes that were counted up to that point. A statewide recount would have started a different, probably had a different outcome and the courts decision probably would have been a different one. But because of the choices that the political establishment made in a new context, the court cant be concerned about it. The court can only go by what the constitution requires it does in this particular moment. I think that will be the case here as well. So if you are looking at this nomination process, the political argument that somehow Coney Barrett will be there to be a hammer to put trump over the finish line, thats actually a rather bogus argument when you consider the way this process is constitutionally mandated to unfold, and so that, i have less concerns about that and more faith to the point that rachel made about the process doing what it is supposed to do the way it is supposed to do it. Right. Let me draw down for a minute on the issue of the interregnum. Its one thing not to could see them play with the media. Its another thing to actually have in place a fullfledged strategy to undermine the legitimacy of the Election Results through a series of actions, direct actions, including summoning your followers into the streets. Bart, you interviewed in your article i never of republican officials, and michael, you are a republican, albeit you obviously created a certain measure of distance from those who are republicans today. Entirely different brand. We will get to that in men. First to bart. Is there a strategy based on your interviews, is there an actual strategy in place . I think theres a point that russ is that how you say spain . I googled it. Yes, its [inaudible] he has a point and its hard to interview plot and strategy at this present because he so impulsive and sixth in the moment but he has people for that, and there are what i know for my reporting there are discussions of contingency plans in which the Trump Campaign would seek to bypass the results of popular elections statebystate in key swing states. They could call upon republican legislators to take back their power under article ii of the constitution to decide how electors are assigned in their states. That is to say we are accustomed to electors corresponding to the votes but, in fact, the constitution set state legislators can assign electors any way they like. And if he convinces his political allies that the vote has been hopelessly compromised, that no one even knows what the result is because theres been so much fraud and so much chaos, that he himself helped to create, and if the delays and the counter significant enough base on litigation and these ongoing battles, then there comes a time of the site is december 8, when the deadline is approaching for the Electoral College and he asks the legislators to appoint electors who are committed to trump, and they would say we are overwriting the popular vote but the popular vote cant be desperate way to get our best understanding of who one in our state. Now, michael mentioned bush v. Gore in 2000. One of the things hardly anyone remembers about that is that on the same day that the Supreme Court handed down its decision, which was december 12, the florida legislature, the Florida House had already voted and the senate was about to vote to appoint republican electors, even though the litigant was underway. They were going to send to the Electoral College a slate of electors committed to bush using the legislative power under the constitution to make sure that bush got those votes. And its not the Supreme Court decision that ended that election. It is what happened the day after, which is on december 13 when gore came out and conceded. Because gore could have continued to fight the electrical and if it done sent pencil, it wouldve been overseen by the present scene it was al gore. And if that happens this year, the president , it will be mike pence and thats one of the reasons for concern. I understand and i agree. But michael, is it to too untethered a thought from reality believe that republicans as they currently exist that come republican elite, its a fancy a half, forgive me, that a delegation of republicans would go to the white house at some point during this time, if it was clear the president had i determined willful strength to steal an election to basically say that it, we will no longer support you. Its not your party anymore for any number of reasons, but is that thought simply based on the behavior of republicans over the last four years, is there no guardrail that exists among the republican elite . Bob woodward said last week that there only two constraints. Now, trumpet he started the white house staff which was an intriguing comment, and the second was republicans. Yeah, i think there still some validity to that despite what we have seen in behavior from Republican Leaders over the last three years. Certainly there are some numbers in the senate, for example, your hypocritically and cant get help, theres no truth that at this point. Nor should we try to chew them because thats who they are. But i think by and large what you are looking at particularly given the impact that the president is having on down ballot elections. In ginger root of issue the senate was not in play for democrats. Three weeks after the election, right now there are at least four seats and possibly six seats that are not just on the bubble butt are problematic for republicans. And if you look at, if you just one indication of this come how bad it is, Lindsey Graham is tied for his reelection seat in south carolina. Let me repeat, south carolina. No bastion of blue stateism come south carolina. South carolina is that if you dont believe me about south carolina, and look at what senator cornyn is going through in the state of texas, yes, i said taxes, with the president himself is barely three points had depending on the polls in texas. So what youve seen over the last few weeks, and certainly in the last three or four days, is Mitch Mcconnell taking a much more hands off approach to the president ial outcome of this election. And is more than aware of the senatorial in fact, this election could have on his leadership of the senate and what it may mean for republicans who want to be competitive in a biden administration. And so i think that yeah, it would be some degree of a voice inside the ear of the president from Republican Leaders who would be saying let it go. This is disruptive to the country. We cant afford this because there is a political upside at that point, going back to barts points about the violence. If that occurs, the Largest Group blamed for that will not be democrats but republicans. You can talk about antifa all day long but all you have to do is put the president own words, i want my voters to go to the polls. I want them to be disruptive. The president giving his blessing to qanon and giving his blessing to white nationalism. Thats a narrative that the people themselves have seen and heard from the president own lips, and republicans would be low to sort of and preset noted on the other side of this election for fear that those feeds that they can try to hold onto, they will be able to so thats where you see the distancing now, and the president a large i think to some degree be on his own if he tries to stoke that kind of, you know, militant response to the election on Election Night. Ill tell you one thing if i could add to that, aaron. Theres an important guardrail believe it or not in fox news, and theres going to be a big question on Election Night and afterward. Fox news has a very professional decision desk of pulses, political scientists and they will know the real truth. The scenario that is most concerning, as rachel said, is a red maras in which because trumps vote is concentrated in the in person votes, people who say they plan to vote in person by one poll break almost to do one for trump, nationally. So if we have what appears to be a Trump Victory on Election Night, and we might not, if biden wins florida, florida counts early, it will not be any blueshift in florida. We will know by late Election Night who is very likely to win florida. If biden wins florida and most ask for trump are close at that point a victory, then youre going to see the decision desks at nbc and abc and cbs and the Associated Press are going to be say this election is looking very strong for biden. It appears hes on the verge of victory. Will fox go a long with trumps claims of victory, nonetheless, or will listen to his decision desk . Its a critical question. Okay, the future. Its funny how many of our questions, not funny, very instructive back to michaels point about aspirations and hope rachel, you are the prognosticator and id like to turn this question to you. We had to make questions for future, one asks big picture, what are the three key reforms that are needed to improve american democracy Going Forward . A similar question on youtube, what gives you hope with respect to the future of american democracy . I know its a big question. We had about six minutes left take a minute or two if you might is a critically important one. A lot gives me hope actually. First of all people are engaged. A lot of people took democracy for granted for many, many years. We have 40 of our public who doesnt vote at all. The amount of Political Engagement in the number of people who no longer take democracy for granted who care about these abstract parts of election law, thats good. Thats really good and that means we can build on that. I think there are changes that can be made that a start to be made that would really be helpful. Rankedchoice voting is one of the things i talk about bob. Sounds very wonky but it just means you rank your favorites, people to elect as if you would rank your favorite flavors at an ice cream shop, and maine has voted for, new city photoperiod we in santa fe. What needs is different flavors of Political Party can exist. As mica was saying he has a different flavor of republican from the men in the white house and thats good. We need different flavors but we need a Progressive Left and workingclass left. We need a conservative business right and we need a socially conservative right. The people exist in america and they deserve representation. Rankedchoice voting allows them to have that representation and its a reform that would enable the party they think to represent better while keeping some of the worst of the worst that we are seeing from rising to the top of the party solely so everyone can pull together and win. I also see real the number of good people running. Particularly in the last election cycle but also in this election cycle you unit unprecedented numbers of women coming out to run. Really good candidates. We denigrate republicans in our democracy. We like to say they are all corrupt, they are all bad, they are all in for themselves. Who else is going to run your democracy . We are republican where not a direct democracy. We need to elect someone and its a really rotten job. My father used to say that anyone tells you usually a senator, they are not your friend. You have to raise a lot of money, spend a huge amount of time and a little telephone booth shaped thing calling people and asking for dollars, fly back and forth constantly crossed the country back to home state. It is a tough job. Then on top of that people say you are corrupt and rotten. Maybe some people are but the number of good people who are running is really important and starting to respect been more and recognize them for the patriots that they often can be and are is important. A lot gives me hope and theres a lot of things we can start doing now that we care also gives me hope. I agree with the Electoral College but it would require at least three more sessions at least. I think it is critically, a critically important reform. I think weve almost reached the end of our session. I want to say something, call it a Public Service announcement, describe it anyway you want. For most of my career i focus on Foreign Policy, ignoring the domestic realities and the political culture here at home. I think leaving government, its been 17 years now, come more to focus on the boards of the republic and buckles on here. I just want to close with a quote from lincoln who was 28 at the time. He addressed the young mens in 1830 and heres what lincoln had to say. The Foreign Policy reference is important. Heres a link and says at age of 28. At what point shall we expect the approach of danger . By what means shall we fortify against it. So we expect some transatlantic military giant to step the ocean and crushed us at a below . Never. All the armies of europe, asia and africa combined with all ale treasures of the earth, in the military chest with a bonaparte for a commander could not by force take a drink from the ohio, or make a track on the blue ridge, and the trial of a thousand years. At what point this is the approach of danger to be expected . I answer, if it ever reach us, it must spring up amongst us. It cannot come from abroad. If distraction be our lot, lincoln argued at the age of 28, we must ourselves be its author and its finisher. As a nation of free men, writing in the 19th century of course, we must live through all time, or die by suicide. I want to thank bart, michael and rachel. Its a complicated subject youve unpacked it, you and why did it, and youre done so with real care, real diligence. And the future of our republic depends on people like you. Vote two things, vote and please tune into the next session of carnegie connects. That you so the Senate Finance subcommittee on fiscal responsibility on Economic Growth is a virtual hearing on the fiscal outlook and i thank you all for participating. I thank you all for participating and i