Advance warning and so i am joined here by olivia who is now at the Peterson Institute and loretta who is the president of the Federal Reserve bank in cleveland and grenade the former fed chairman and paul crewmen the economist and Senior University of new york and columnist for the New York Times and he is the guy who make all journalists nervous because he seems to be more productive than the rest of us and that is kind of frightening given that he does all these other things at the side but we can discuss that later so i wanted to start by asking each of the panelists a little bit about what they took away from the conversation we had this morning. I want to start with olivier who made the observation, him inside the you see behind us about how they behave, perhaps one in this expected but prices arent rising so the question is, what the hell is going on . So i had prepared a slide in anticipation and i think it has survived the previous three hours fairly well and coincides with the general message and tells us what we need to look and, this one it is familiar but it basically has an Unemployment Rate and employment cost index and i think it is, there you could plotted in this get a diagram and it is consistent with everything we heard, now what people have put on the righthand side typically is the price, what i have done instead is plot the Wage Inflation using an employment cost index which is the blue line and the gdp price inflate or, for the purpose of thinking of markups is more valuable, this is what we produced and basically its visually striking, which although we saw from the previous graph the inflation was okay, and that doesnt seem to be much of it between the gdp price in flatter and the employment cost index, its where they disconnect, people have talked about this but there is more than, that there is other variation that, in the price index which is not coming from the cost index so there are two dimensions, so starting with, this my reactions today, so i think the first puzzle is the slope of a relation between Wage Inflation, and unemployment and i think we are not clear about where the stop has declined or not, my sense from my own regressions is that it has but someone argued if you do it why is it remains more or less the same, i think it has decreased, and the explanation i think is very plausible subject that i suggested and it seems to work, the other is that maybe there has been a change in the bargaining structure, take the case and if you think about the ranch from the match and the workers are already at the bottom and in their zoning that they can be done to decrease their wage, so if everyone is paid the minimum wage then we would find no effect of unemployment from wages, so i think there is Something Like this happening i dont think we saw this one and we need to do it, on the markup and the second graft, what is, it whats going, on i suspect measurement is a big part of, it the more you know about gdp inflation the more youre worried, the, we have heard explanations about pricing, i think some of them say well some sectors really have to take the International Prices given and therefore you will not see this pass through, thats not true for all sectors so i think we need to do this in the same way was done and try to understand it but again it there is still work should be, done and on the theme of the panel this, this stability of the curve and the price flips curve has a big implication and that hasnt been examined and should probably have been in the context of thinking what they should do, to have a Wage Inflation target, and its clearly much more related than, so from an empirical point of view it seems like a better measure to look like but from a normative point of view, if you take this and the markups reflect distortions then actually its a good idea to take a measure that doesnt have a markup in it, mainly the wages and focus on these, but the cpi moves around so we had talked over dinner and said that we would write something together, they have been busy but i think its still worth exploring, politically telling people that they care about wages, because ways inflation is part of it. Its tightening because wages are rising . Wage in inflation is something, and productivity is part of it and thats consistent with the price level correctly measured of about two, im more of the hawkish side these days. So ive noticed that in a number of presentations over the recent months you have a lot of things, if its the case that non monetary factors are holding back than inflation and it is a different implication for policy than if its an aggregate demand, so im curious about all the evidence weve heard this morning, about whats driving inflation in the work that youve done and youre people have done, what explanations do you have for what we have seen. So there is a sign that said for every problem there is a simple elegant solution thats wrong so there is no simple one word answer to this so yes our Inflation Research center is doing on a work in trying to understand inflation dynamics, so we have resolved that if you look at the structural part it is related to the cyclical part or a cyclical part, so there are prices that move with it and the a cyclical, health care which is the big part of it, other parts of arent really related, the cyclical part is only 40 of inflation now. So part of whats going on is that you have idiosyncratic factors that affect the labor market, and fact the inflation rates, but if you do just look at the cyclical part it certainly correlated with tightness in the labor market if it there are these a cyclical factors affecting inflation, so i think you want to be careful about sort of trying to explain everything with whats going on in the labor market, so that means that if you see a shock it may take longer to get back to youre inflation target that it would otherwise from policy and explaining Communications Point of view, you may want to think about a range as opposed to a point target because you have the shock that are going to move inflation off your target even if youre trend inflation rate is moving up, so there are implications about how you think about, how you communicate your target and i think the results that we saw today are very provocative in the sense that it makes you think about a different way of communicating and perhaps a different way of thinking about the interplay of expectations and your target. So from my point of view you might have shocked stamp inflation off your trend but the trend underlying inflation rates so i agree with the remark that janet made earlier that the stability of Inflation Expectations is key, allowing you to run your policy, i think the Amazon Effect and the fact that pricing models are changing our very interesting because if its true that prices are becoming more flexible, if you think about the model, why is Monetary Policy able to cushion against, these shocks on the real side its because of prices, if they become less sticky and there is more frequent price changes that means Monetary Policy is less effective more said differently you have to move it more to have a similar effect, so again in changes, these underlying structural changes that are more important than just how you measure inflation and they may actually change the transmission mechanism. Then are you convinced that something has changed in the structural side of unemployment or is it just that for some of this weve had wise Monetary Policy makers and everything is all the same the only thing that has changed is the quality of the policy. Everybody is laughing, thats actually my opinion, i think the most important factor over the long haul has been changing, not wiser policy but the one about inflation and they had a nice paper where they study the dynamics of inflation using ana observed model and the basic message was 30 or 40 years ago if there was a shock to inflation, a significant part of it was permanent, it would stay away for a period and since the nineties its transitory and its consistent with the world in which Inflation Expectations have been well anchored and the tense we are transitory is long as the policy is consistent with, that and their way to think about it the in dodging idea policy, i think its very complimentary, on the one hand Inflation Expectations or well anchored that policy can succeed in keeping it a target and vice first out if policies committed then it tends to be well anchored so i think that explains the broad changes in the appalachian paul takes, so in recent behavior, part of the reason it didnt fall so much is because of Inflation Expectations, they did fall some extent, we have seen some extent which is probably why inflation has been slow to come up, having said that i think there are interesting points me today, for example clearly part of the reason inflation has been slow to come up is the fed underestimated how far the labor market can be pushed, you have unemployment and they give some scope for further expansion in the labor market, some of the points that christian made about the factors that kept inflation from falling quite so much after the panic are relevant so there is a bunch of in any short period there is gonna be a part of idiosyncratic factors that are relevant, i think over a lot are true period the change in Monetary Policy, is the most important thing but these are relevant to the which has a huge bearing on policy and i wanted to Say Something about oliviers proposal because i have thought something along the same lines and then kind of backed off it even though the economics seems to be right and here is the point. Targeting wages is what we are talking. About there is one thing and nobody really talked about it here, and here Success Story for a conventional Monetary Analysis over these past ten years have been the current headline inflation, and im sure ben remembers is more than i, do we remember 20, ten 2011 when inflation was going mostly because of oil prices and the fed was saying, calm down, core inflation that we should be looking at and was totally vindicated in that but we now see there is stuff going on even with coordination measure but if we think about conceptually what we mean about core we mean stop this thing out there, it is Wage Inflation so it makes a lot of sense to target wages except im trying to imagine a situation of the chair of the feds saying we are raising Interest Rates because wages are rising too fast, i think its good economics but the political economics is going to be disastrous, and i think saying we are committed to make sure that wages increase no matter what 3 . I think, i think its not just 40 but a large proportion as a whole that doesnt get messages. Then youre body language suggested that you had this rule. I wouldnt want to see it in front of congress and say that we are very concerned that wages are rising too quickly, thats a concern, i think its a complicated question, theres elements of the price process is independent of the market and i think you have to factor in the Monetary Policy as well. It seems that at the same time we have had a long period of low target inflation in many countries around the world, we have also seen this decline in our star, the socalled natural rate of interest, the one that will come out when all is calm, we dont know what it is but there is certainly right spread contest in that it has fallen on, and it seems that this is, the two questions, are these things related, secondly this is kind of, challenging how should Monetary Policy think about a world where inflation for now seems to be low and the natural way of interest is also potentially low. So i have, as you might guess a facetious answer to the first part, it looks like you star and our, star these things exist and were not even sure about that unless both of them have fallen but why has this gotten that and the answer is, we dont know, and why has our story gone down, so both of them are caused by we really dont know, the, i thought the answers, it always has nothing to do with demography, that was the next, thing if i had to make up a story out a demography but you could make a story along those lines and the fact that it is holding up better makes it harder to tell, its just a more experienced bolder workforce that should be showing up, it is the last dramatic part of the story but i buy the demography on this, i think thats right but what i would take from in his luck, it seems quite possible that there is still quite a lot of slack in the advance world as a whole, and it looks like there is little monetary space which should give us a lot of anxiety, we should be worrying a lot because if we are in this situation now where nothing has in happened lately then we are in big trouble if sooner or later something will happen so the two factors together meaning that we should be worried a lot about what we can do to get more space for a policy response that will get us to some of the questions that you got towards targeting and fiscal policy. I think it is a big worse than we dont know. I think it is a weak bargaining fundamentally and that seems to be good news for the other side, the profit side and so in that light i think the decrease is even more of a puzzle. So loretta fortunately you have to make decisions with the information. I guess im going to push back a little bit on the fact that we have all the slack still out there, if you talk to firms, in fact we had a panel yesterday they routinely tell us, this is been going on for several years about the difficulty of finding or people that they can hire, you go back and say, okay are you raising ranges, they say yes but then thats changing now now theyre basically saying that its not really worth trying to hire, of the pool that still out there because when they do bring them and they dont stay on staff more than a month, so i said dont you know where they are going and they had no idea, so what is the response, now it is they are going to start arguing more and you see that more and so i think i would say we have done a lot in terms of running policy much more accommodating than we did in the past, partly thats because we brought down our estimates, so if someone were to say relative to the old to use we are running the economy very high, the policy is much more accommodating than it would be an alternative role so i think we have taken on board some of the things you talk about in terms of we have to rethink when we dont see wages going up, we have to rethink our policy and i think we have done that but at some point there are consequences of a policy like that so you may be ending up with a long Term Employment growth because if youre making more than we want to have a demand for so very sympathetic for wanting to be a maximum implemented, thats really our goal, its not going to affect the overall labor market in the way that you want to, i think in terms of the things that we talked about in the district, job programs getting people the skills that they need to run those rowboats in getting to these plans, all of them were gonna have a much bigger impact on Public Welfare in terms of getting people to, work there is a whole other set of issues on how to get people to work which is another issue, transportation is an issue, so there are a lot of structural things that nothing to do with Monetary Policy that can improve. I dont understand the problems, around the economy high, workers that we, volleyball lots of labors, way dirty, rise from start to automated which increases productivity growth and youre worried that were added jobs. Im worried that there is gonna be a whole segment of the population, right now they dont have the skills that are in demand so what happens to those, people unless you are training them then you are in trouble, we have had a shift in our Interest Rate from manufacturing to other types of jobs, there is a mismatch between the skills that people have and the skills on demand and unless were doing something about that its going to be very hard to improve so i think thats one of the things that they have been doing around the district, we have heard time and time again, they are not concerned they are much more concerned about in my gonna be able to provide food on the table for my family, so we have to think about what tools we use for which one we are trying to effect. Can i stir back to the charging combination of low neutral rates and inflation, what is the right response and does it matter where youre starting points are, inflation is getting close to 2 , japan is, their Inflation Expectation is still below, 1 whats the radiance or. Let me start by saying that it is mostly understandable, i think investment patterns, technology, all those things that a lot of people have talked about, i think they can explain most of what has gone on, so i think i understand that its something outside of Monetary Policy but it is also constrains the policy, and do i do it and she hatful response, there is this points that historically the fed is cut, five and a half Percentage Points and now we only have supposedly three Percentage Points of room, so work im doing it thinking about this is the appropriate use for guidance, using some of these tools plus thinking about different frameworks, i think they add about three Percentage Points of space, so my sense is as long as the rates are two and a half to three, Something Like that that they will be able to do most of what i could be able to do at any point in history in terms of using traditional policy rules, so i think say that we are now basically at a space, the United States thats wrong, it is also the true that ones neutral rates get much lower than two and a half then you are running into much more difficult situation and then more talk about alternative, fiscal policy in the like, but i think that asking for five and six Percentage Points is not needed, i think these other tools are affective and if appropriately use could compensate for some of this. So it has been used already, it can be used better and more aggressively, but im just talking now about the recession and what they will be able to do starting from where it is, if there is a medium size recession. So they had a conventional Monetary Policy on eu, i hate to who knows more about this than anyone but ive just been skeptical and the fact that we are still arguing about this after all these years i think is Persuasive Evidence and it seems dubious, and we should have too much of a parochial perspective here, the other large advanced economy, the eurozone, how much room did they have for that and so i think a large part of the worlds already and pretty dire straits and we have no idea about the size, and the historic cut but that was way inadequate in the last recession we have, we dont think we will have another shock coming but we didnt think that what was coming either so i think we still have a very fundamental problem, we just dont know that we dont have enough policy rules but there seems to be a substantial probability that we dont have enough policy room. What about europe and japan . They dont have a luxury we have on. I was saying that theyre in a much more difficult situation, particularly to paired, this goes back to my initial comments, one of the reasons to be aggressive, if they get anchored at the low level then you are so its quite different because of the way Inflation Expectations, europe inflation are too low but not nearly as low as japan so there is probability that they will eventually emerge and achievement more normal stance but i dont disagree with paul that european chopin are in more difficult states, but honestly having thinking about the evidence that the comments about its effective or not, thats kind of a medium narrative if you actually look at the research, the evidence is strong and it is effective. I thought you were going to propose a higher inflation target any threw me off my gate by talking about wages, have you surrendered on the idea that 2 inflation is too low . Now, just checking, theres a timing issue, i think its still a completely reasonable proposal that should be discussed, announcing today 4 is basically, has zero credibility so there is probably another time can i comment on that because we have some research that is prone into this. So the argument that you raise to get more space seems to be very salient but it firms are going to be more flexible in their pricing and if this means that they change their prices more often it goes back to my original point which means Monetary Policy would have to act even more aggressively to have an impact, so you dont get as much space as you might think. I think you have a wrong places that adjusted very fast, principal things to be better and there would be less need. Once you got into a downturn you would have less space in order to be able to get two Percentage Points, rate you would have to be harder on air policy, action so it is a transmission mechanism that is effective, according to the morals we have prices would adjust faster, so it is ambiguous i think, we can compromise. Can i just say that im gonna disagree with the libya and say, i agree the boot strapping the announcement that i probably said this thing back by decades saying, there is absolutely zero evidence that works but i think if were thinking about laying the intellectual groundwork for what happens the next time things go wrong and might be a good idea to keep alive the fact that the 2 inflation target that has a peculiar history and based partly on happenstance, partly on assumptions a turn out to be entirely raw was not a good idea, and comes the next global slum and we certainly have profitability is in germany and Bernie Sanders and all this stuff and we have the chance to have a combined expansion that stopping at 2 inflation is not a good idea, would be a good thing to have out there, let me ask you about another thing that people talk about, some people basically say, yeah we dont have much inflation but, and its terrific to enjoy the fruits of a hot labor market, but we are sowing the seeds of one another disaster by not taking into consideration as stability risks by running low Interest Rates such a long time, is that something to worry about but is that something people worry about that have nothing to worry about about something else. I think what we have learned over the past several years is that we do have to take Financial Stability concerns into account and thinking about Monetary Policy, thats not to say at it as a third mandate or whatever but it is something we have to take into account, you have to recognize that if youre running very low Interest Rates that we may be creating some financial imbalances that may come back to haunt two in the future, so i think you have to understand that those kinds of affects can occur and now shes at the board and develop the structure for allowing the policy to examine those kinds of on and monitor that. There are some issues in terms of not financial debt levels being high, commercial real estate pricing of being high but i think moderate levels that we can handle but i think its something you have to think about, partly because in theory we would like to use credential tools to worry about financial policies but in reality thats a hard thing to do because we dont really have on that and the feds did a table top exercise where we went through scenarios and we have a paper out that talks about the results of those, that table top and it really is clear that when you get into a situation where a financial instability issues come to play, we dont have many tools out we can actually used to address them, there was not a discussion earlier about the importance of communications in setting Inflation Expectations michael, whoever made the case they really do have to worry about household and firm Inflation Expectations and just influencing investors is inadequate and he pointed out, something we all know, its hard to communicate this stuff to ordinary people even the ones in the top half of the distribution, do you think its important, to Central Banks have to worry about their ability to adjust this or could you get there by influencing the markets, so let me first say that i am very happy about the desire of the feds and other banks for more outrage, they listen, these are very important institutions, they need to be accountable and transparent and they need to understand what theyre doing there are limitations to that obviously but i think its important trying to communicate, from a technical perspective i think there is a significant way, as long as the market understand your goals and maybe some of the pricing executives, the people who are in charge of it and they can get you a long way and they have this model it has to settings, a setting called model expectations where everyone is assumed to know what the feds target isnt behaves accordantly and not a consistent pricing is the second setting really the bottom market understands what youre doing and interns at the you get two thirds or three quarters there in the second scenario. So im sure its a case that a very large fraction of the population doesnt know what the Federal Reserve is, much less red it is targeting and i think the fed, and other Central Banks will be well served and trying to increase literacy about these things, but i dont think that even some of these policies, we will be talking about price of oil targeting, some of these types of policies that rely to some extent and foreign looking behavior, i think that some relations and other analysis suggest that you get a bit of a benefit if only a minority of the population understand exactly what you are trying to do. On demands, Monetary Policy works basically through housing and Exchange Rate so if you can get to the minds of the people that set Mortgage Rates and Exchange Rates that is what matters. Were not quite that far but with inflation what matters is the expectation, the Inflation Expectation and its criminal that we dont have a firm. Its absolutely need it because when i look at households the expectations play out minor role in the determination of wages, and the determination of wages it is farm so we should have a survey of Hr DepartmentInflation Expectations, this is a really important thing to know and as far as i can tell there is not in the u. S. And in new zealand for example which i think was referred to this morning is not very convincing, im sure that people in the Hr Department are more careful. I wonder before we turn to the audience if they could give loretta some advice, not about what to do with Interest Rates but, thats always welcome sure that loretta needs more opinions on what to do with Interest Rates, but they are involved in this rethink, this was her food but is talking about inflation targets but what is it to you think, given all the things that we have talked about today, what is happening with inflation, while we, understand what we dont understand, what is the right thing to do with the framework to put us in a better place than we are today, if you want to start paul . No i have to admit that im a little bit baffled, it feels to me as if the various things are understanding of how it is seems to be kind of impossible and some combination of politics and could straight, through the iterations arguments are persuasive but off the table. Wage targeting is extremely persuasive but i would say that it is off the table, so im not at all sure, i dont know what the answer is, im supposed to be saying something hopeful but i feel like sometimes we talk to developing countries and try to go through a policy options and they say that would be impossible when you look at the constricts. So we could be there, so they are talking about the socalled makeup policy and the idea that if you fall short of inflationary target for a period of time, recently there would be some compensation for that and the debate about that is turned on technicalities and what to be credible, etc, i think there is simple variance of that and they could be explained qualitatively and you get a lot of the benefit, so for example the technical variant as to pry several targeting, and you fall short of the target you compensate for that to some extent, the version of that which seems to work pretty well is called temporary price level targeting and you only raised two zero until youve established over a year that you can hit the target and you can exclude a quote terribly, who had leaving from zero lower bound that we have established, like the European Central bank robustly converging to the target, we dont want to start our process of normalizing rates so we have clearly established that over a year and that would be a very simple explanation, it would be one that would have most of the benefit because they would appreciate it would be very slow and doesnt involve complex calculations and things of that sort, of so i think thats just an example, i think the makeup policy approach can be done within the context of the current inflation target but simply defining what it means to hit the target, in particular that hitting the target momentarily is not enough, we have to establish that we are sustainably at the target in simply doing that would have some of the makeup qualities that these theoretical approaches have edward not involved in a greater change, any confusion, that would be my suggestion. So i think that we have been flirting with this four different degrees, in europe we have married it and so in that world the parties get to be they can straighten we see it in japan in europe and i totally support what bennett is pushing but as you suspect it is Second Quarter and so maybe youre going to be able to predict what im going to say, what about fiscal policy, it seems to be that fiscal policy in the same context is a media, its cheap because rates are so low, the cost of that is very low already can be used freely better, in the u. S. There is no doubt that our president and congress will use it, but in europe you can convince governments to do it but it seems to me the solution is not to do more twist, i think we have to this elusive is to have a more expensive fiscal policy. Do you want to weigh in on this . Just the way you think about Inflation Expectations need to be well anchored and allow Monetary Policy to counteract narrative shocks, i think for the fiscal policy, if we had fiscal policy on a sustainable pass then you would be able to use it in a way that we would like to be able to use it, with just like we need to make sure we are running Monetary Policy and anchored so that we can use Monetary Policy more effectively i think the same thing with the fiscal side so we are all have time for some questions, again raise your hand, standup, tell us who you are and be as brief as possible, there is one here, and then you take three and then well see. So this is for the whole panel, do you see a future of coordinated monetary fiscal policy, what will be policy like in that region . Instead of targeting, sorry instead of targeting wage growth, how about targeting labor share because theres time when he won a labor costs to be rising in order to rebalance factor shares that whacked in a downturn as we have seen. Thanks very much i teach political economy across the street, my guess is for the current and former central bankers mainly, i cant think of a decade where central bankers have been so attacked by politicians, brexiteers, Current Central Bank or by the president , german politicians, is this something you actively worry about is going to get worse, is it something thats gonna go away if we go back to more normal types of Monetary Policy, is it affecting the way people think about the credibility and the need for central bank independence, thank you. So lets start with the coronation of fiscal monetary, policy is unlikely, what is a look like . I learned everything from crewman about, this he tommy that it only works if Inflation Expectations go up so as long as the inflation target is credible than you might as well do the fiscal policy and have Monetary Policy agreed to be supportive in some way. Yeah so there is this idealized, by the 4 inflation target, but we have a coordinated fiscal expansion to get to that point which is ratified by monetary, that doesnt seem to be on the table, anywhere that if we talk about actual coordination that might happen, i actually worry about whos coordinating with whom so i would be perfectly happy with them setting german fiscal policy, are not happy with the German Government and their policy. I think that two dimensions of coronation, i think it can be done, very simple coronation and you do something, you tell Fiscal Authority youre doing something and as a central bank react to it and make sure that i undo the effect and how do the negative, i dont think it implies more than just that, and the green span is an example of that, coordination across fiscal policies and countries that is a much more difficult issue and again if the eurozone calls for a recession, the uncoordinated fiscal response will be too weak because when belgium expands it doesnt get much so i think there is a need for coronation, whether it happens or not it should, and probably will not, that will be my answer. Loretta when the question was asked about central bankers being attacked, i had this image that paul would storm into the room and say oh you guys dont know what it is, but i think there is an attack on Central Banks around the world and other institutions as well, i think he was wondering how do you cope with that as a central banker who doesnt seem like an evil person, at least for my conversation. Thanks all take that. I mean i feel like i am privilege to work, its very honorable institution, i have met and worked with people and i can just tell you everyone is focused on making sure that the policy is the best and there are going to be challenges around in your face, one of them may that criticisms we are getting in this environment but its part of the job and you have to stick to the inning and make sure that youre doing your policy the best you can and there is no simple policy, that is why you see the discussions we are having in terms of what is the way to go about doing it and once the rain policy, so you have to you no deal with, that i do have concerns that we get this question all the time, if you get into meetings you know that these considerations never enter the room but the fact that we are getting asked these questions to make you take into account that there are people who may not know that, raid these considerations are not affecting our policy so i do have concerns about that, so. So the question about targeting labor share. I think its a very different animal, i was targeting domino wage growth, labor share is much more viable so i will not touch it. Im reminded, there is a great line in the transcripts, where the bureau of Economic Analysis revives gdp growth and he says well if they can revive gdp can we do the same thing with Interest Rates, i will take two more and then well have to call it a day. So the it was a reference to fiscal policy and coronation with Monetary Policy, how realistic it is said that in the United States today, given the very substantial deficits that we are running and are rapidly rising gdp, another way to a point it, is fiscal policy response to down turn, off the table given how significant the federal deficit is during the full employment economy. You mentioned inflation ban, so how wide would that have to be, standard deviation is four tenths a, year katya showdown her charles that over the last 20 years it is been over one seven, and we are currently running one eight, is Monetary Policy precise enough to push up inflation and a quarter of a percentage point. Why dont you take that one. I just think as a communication device we know that it is there for various reasons, i think as a communication device it makes, sense it also allows you to have some scope to iran during good times and then when you go lower, go into getting closer to zero bound and it gives you more. Its not a bad target, just thinking about how you want to run higher and normal times and less high and more downturns. This element of coordination, i forgot to mention one place where you had this policy is japan, and in some respects the outcome has been disappointing but one thing has really not been a problem, people losing confidence in the ability of the japanese government to repay its debts, japan is far deeper in debt and has far worse demographics in the United States, so the notion that the United States is anywhere close, they have documented this a, lot the idea that when you are closer to the limits of physical policy is in odds with all the evidence. Do you agree with that . Well its no justification for doing something crazy this could go on for a long time, i want to thank all the presenter s and we had a pretty good group of people, i want to thank my colleagues to organize this, thank all of you for the questions, if you could do one more favor, but youre paper and coffee cups at the back of the, room wed appreciate that, these dry and me and thinking everybody. applause now historian dan albert talked about his book, he chronicles the history of u. S. Autos and argues against tribalist cars, this is about an hour and 45 minutes. Tonight we are joined by historian and automotive journalist, he spent a career writing in teaching about the history and culture of technology, his articles can be