Transcripts For FBC Cavuto Coast To Coast 20240714

For it and so will the country. Look what is happening at the corner of wall and broad. Were up 266 points. Were going a long way to make up for the ground lost yesterday when the perception was that Federal Reserve is one and done. That may be case but no one at the Federal Reserve has dialed things bet but the betting is well see another cut in september. It is running 60 or so, incentive building for additional quarterpoint cut. None of that telegraphed by anybody at the Federal Reserve. You can interpret Jerome Powell at your own risk any way you want but right now that seems to be comforting sort of reversal of yesterdays advance or todays advance versus yesterdays free fall. Lets go to blake burman where things stand with the white house view on all of this. Blake . Reporter it would be comforting for the white house as well as they are calling for more rate cuts and more drastic action out of the Federal Reserve. Normally you wouldnt get any white house reaction to a major fed move. But were operating in a different environment these days. As you know the president has been incredibly critical of both the fed and fed chair leading into yesterdays decision. He was calling for a large rate cut and for quantitative tightening to stop immediately. He didnt necessarily get that. So the Immediate Reaction we got from the president , quote, was powell let us down. Part of the argument that the administration is making is, when you look across the world, look at what is happening with banks all over the world are doing, they are cutting. Over here, they argue, if that is what is happening elsewhere, we should be doing the same. Listen to Peter Navarro one of the top members of the president s Economic Team when he spoke with Maria Bartiromo earlier this morning. We raised 100 basis points when they didnt did. I i got you. There is equalibrium on Interest Rates. You dont raise Interest Rates when you have zero effectively inflation. Reporter jay powell pointed yesterday to many trade uncertainties the u. S. Is involved in, specifically that the deal that the u. S. Is trying to wrap up with china. Im told, neil, that earlier this morning the president was set to be briefed by his trade team on the discussions over in shanghai, steve mnuchin, Robert Lighthizer leading those discussions over there. We do know from statements from both sides that both sides called the talks constructive. China says it will engage in an ag buy that the president wanted. That the next series of talks will take place in september. The president is set to get a fuller briefing exactly what happened over in shanghai. Neil. Neil thank you very much, blake burman at the white house. Does the have anything more to say or update us on the budget matter, of course the Federal Reserve. Lets go to former white house Economic Advisor steve moore on this steve, always food to have you. The president was saying, tweeted out earlier today, the budget deal, the one theyre hammering out in the senate likely to approve is a good deal, that everyone will have plenty of time to cut. I assume saying if he were reelected, do you agree with that . No, not exactly. I think the white house made a political calculation here, neil, to buy some peace and get the budget and the debt ceiling passed the next election, so that we dont have a big fight 30 or 60 days before one of the most important elections of our lifetime but i got to tell you there are a lot of conservatives around the country who are just not happy about the overspending thats happened. This is 300 billion above the caps that conservatives and republicans fought, you know, very valiantly for. By the way, neil, i think you said, i may have misheard you there may be a half dozen republicans that would vote against this in the senate . I would hope it would be a lot more than that. Republicans have to be the part of limited government and balanced budgets. This is far from that. Neil they have to make that up with other democrats to offset if this thing is to pass. Theyre not going to be able to defeat but it is important for conservatives to stand you say, were spending way too much. Neil but theyre not in any numbers. Theyre not in any numbers that are significant. I understand what youre saying about expediency of this, get funding you want for defense, get funding you democrats want for nondefense items. I get that. When the president last year was showing this huge budget he was just apoplectic about it, this is bigger than that one . It is. It is hard to defend. Again i understand why the president wants to get, not have a big fight on the debt ceiling. We dont want to have to deal with, you know, going right up to the edge as weve seen in some previous years but i think a lot of conservatives feel, they wish republicans had a little bit more fight in them on the budget. Im a big defender of this president. I love what he has done on the economy. It is hard to defend the fiscal record. Weve seen big increases in spending. You said it very well, neil, the deal over the last couple years, donald trump gets additional spending that he wants for the military and nancy pelosi gets the additional spending she wants for the social programs. Were looking at trillion dollar deficits for as far as the eye can see. Do i think those are economically crippling . No but i do think theyre too high. I think a lot of voters would like to see trump start to veto and use the veto pen to, to get rid of some of the additional spending that is just unnecessary. Neil steve, as youre talking the majority of the u. S. Senate will increase spending and increasing the debt limit, so essentially passing this we dont have the breakdown of the likely vote, how many republicans, democrats, et cetera, this indicates that the Federal Reserve would cut rates a quarter point an did. But then telegraphed, that might be it. There was confusion in Jerome Powells comments afterwards. Do you think that he is means to leave it one and done . I personally feel vindicated i have been arguing nine months, somewhat controversially that the fed should lower rates. I think the president agrees with me, the rate increases in september, the catastrophically bad decision by the fed by Jerome Powell and Federal Reserve board to raise rates in december which really hurt the economy. You remember what happened in the stock market. It fell by 2,000 points. They need to reverse. Essentially what the fed did yesterday was reverse the december rate increase. That was a good solid start. They have to reverse the there is all this talk about Interest Rates. Neil why do they have to do that . Because there is not enough dollar liquidity in the economy right now to sustain the three to 4 growth, when we put the Economic Program together for trump we believed you could get this economy growing at 3 to 4 . By the way, neil, if you go back to the summer of, last summer would were growing at 3 to 4 , nice wage gains, growing economy, and fed disrupted that beautiful picture by raising rates. We need to get back to the 3 to 4 we are capable of that. Neil steve, steve what is going on sorry. Neil do you think that, the president had any hand in that at all taking on china, taking on mexico, taking on canada, you dont think that was disruptive, the very move the based on addressing oomph from the trade battles . Absolutely. The trade disputes have notched some growth, no question about it. I support what the president is doing on china. We have to fight this fight against china. Theyre a bad actor. They have become a menace to the American Economy and a security threat. So im totally behind trump on this, we shouldnt fool ourselves this is shortterm pain for longterm gain when we get a deal. If you can show me any indication, any indication we have and inflation problem in this economy, then i would be, then i would say stop, stop reducing rates but there is no inflation in the economy, none. In fact last four or five months the fed has come in below its, the inflation rate has become, come in below its target. The fact you have the 10year Treasury Bill at 2 Interest Rates what is that an indication of . There is no fear of inflation. Nobody would buy a 10year bond if they thought inflation would run three or 4 . I think there is excessive monetary tightness. Everyone wants to invest in the United States, to invest in the u. S. You have to have dollars. My big, complaint about the fed is there is too many people over there, and i dont know about Jerome Powell. But i know a lot of senior economists over there, still believe that Economic Growth causes inflation. That is just wrong. You can have an increase in out put in goods and services, prices will fall, not rise. Neil we shall see, steve as you good seeing you, steve, thank you very much. Neil, we need one more rate cut. The president want two or three more rate cuts. I would be happy with one more in september. I think if they do that, trump is well set up for a nice economy in 2020, especially, youre right, if he can get the trade deal done with china. We have smooth sailing ahead. Neil steve, thank you very much. I want to bring Charlie Gasparino into this, what do you think of that . Said there is no inflation. There is inflation. It is called financial assets. It is probably the Dow Jones Industrial average. Neil that is in the eye of the beholder. Some say i ace rich market. Others say it is not. If you carry tremendous amount of leverage on your balance sheet, keep coming back to the market like netflix and a lot more thats called financial asset bubble. It is just classic definition. Always pops. Neil feed that bubble doing what the fed is doing now . Low Interest Rates. The other part, the problem with steves analysis i think, he is saying trying to say that you know the reason why we have this sort of business slowdown, Business Investment slowdown and there is some indicators that gdp is slowing down is mainly because of the small increases in the fed funds rate that the fed has been doing. That is kind of absurd. The bottom line is this. If you look at the dow, if you look at the flatlining, largely of the dow, if you look at other Economic Indicators that have cooled off, a lot of it is related to trumps trade policies. The minute, if you talk to any corporate ceo, you asked them, hey, is the fed raising rates by a quarter point worse than the trade war, which goes beyond china by the way . Neil absolutely. Not just clamping down, china stealing intellectual property. Neil more than a dozen countries have been caught up in this. You ask farmers, you ask anybody, they are not saying, blaming it on Jerome Powell. Listen im not going to defend Jerome Powell. I think what he was doing in decent was crazy. Remember he was not just raising shortterm rates. We were unwinding the balance sheet. That is a massive destimulus in the face of trumps destimulating trade war. So i neil we were doing the reverse of the quantitative easing. Right. Neil now trying to unload those security. Think about it. The markets were saying that the trade war is cost, is going to cost gdp, yet he was tightening. That is bad timing. But im telling you though, this is largely the related to trade t was kind of interesting watching maria interview Peter Navarro. What is peter farrar varroa going to say . Will navarro blame the trade war on a slowdown on gdp . This guy was for the trade war. The question for him, mr. Navarro, with all due respect every corporate ceo we speak to just about is saying it aint the, it es not the fed that is at the heart of this problem. It is your trade war, mr. Navarro started. Neil they will come back and say, this is for good reason. The shortterm pain will be worth the longterm gain . What is longterm gain going after mexico and canada . Neil let me ask you about that. Lets say we score a trade deal with china. Right. The fed does one more rate cut. To hear the administration tell it, we are off to the races, this recovery already going into its 11th year has another couple years going . A great trade deal with china would be great. Where is it . I remember maybe three months ago i heard someone on this network say because trump didnt get charged by mueller he is in a better bargaining position to get a grade trade deal. Guess what . That never happened. It just never happened. As a matter of fact we are back to square one. There is no, the chinese dont think he is in a stronger position. So listen, anything is possible. I like Donald Trumps economic policies for the most part. I dont like the fact that he is engaging in a trade war with mexico and canada. It is very countier productive. Neil right. One other thing, the deficit is ballooning out. When that happens, by the way, at some point, somebody will neil that is like waiting for gadot . What is funny, watching conservatives who used under obama wouldbe moan the deficit, say, it is not such a big deal. Who cares . Neil it matters eventually. At some point it will. Neil Charlie Gasparino, thank you very, very much. Bring you up to date what is happening in the senate, likely approved this measure which is about 2. 7 trillion spending package when all is said and done for the next couple years. It is going to increase the deficit by a trillion plus each year, not in of itself, but that is what youre looking at. It also goes beyond existing caps with nondefense spending running at a clip of 56 1 2 billion dollars a year, defense spending 46 1 2 billion dollars a year. Three out of 20 billiondollar increase next two years. Those were restrictions put in place to make sure there was a builtin backbone. They have overridden their backbone. Well have more after this. What do you look for when you trade . I want free access to research. Yep, td ameritrades got that. Free access to every platform. Yeah, that too. I dont want any trade minimums. Yeah, i totally agree, they dont have any of those. I want to know what im paying upfront. Yes, absolutely. Do you just say yes to everything . Hm. Well i say no to kale. Mm. Yeah, they say if you blanch it its better, but that seems like a lot of work. No hidden fees. No platform fees. No trade minimums. And yes, its all at one low price. Td ameritrade. A cockroach can survive heresubmerged ttle guy. Underwater for 30 minutes. Wow. Yeah. Not getting in today. Terminix. Defenders of home. Neil United States senate has passed the two year budget deal. Sending it along to the president to sign it. He has taken note of some of the controversies around it because it blows through budget caps that were put in place just to avoid this sort of thing. It takes the idea of a Government Shutdown or any of that stuff off the table until well after the election. That is the hope at least. The president praising that deal and the extra money it provides for defense saying there is plenty of time to cut. Might be, that is in the eye of the beholder. More time you have to devote doing just that. Wall street journal reporter eliza collins. Both parties are relieved. This takes the risk of default off the table for the timebeing, man, what a price to pay . We saw earlier rand paul, senator rand paul saying this is the death of the tea party. Conservative republicans certainly are not happy. The far left certainly isnt happy. Both democratic and Republican Leadership are happy they will not have to deal with a shutdown, were getting closer to the president ial election. I think that is part of why President Trump did endorse it, he said in the tweet, this will take us past the election. Theyre breathing a sigh of relief there is not a shutdown. But folks who are really concerned about just the ballooning debt are crying shame about this. Neil the president has also said, eliza, there is plenty of time to cut. That is obviously a signal that assumes he will be reelected. Maybe he will marshall forces to address spending. He went on record when he first ran for president he wouldnt touch items, particularly social security. Those are a big part of this. This is just the Discretionary Spending part. Do you think he means that . Well there havent been cuts so far. The debt has continued to go up under President Trump. Im not exactly sure why that would change if he were reelected but people make Campaign Promises all the time. If there were republican majorities in the house and senate when he first started and they werent able to cut, it is unlikely they will cut with a democratic house, depending on what happens with the 2020 election it, just continues to complicate things. Neil doesnt matter who is in control, democrats or republicans this thing grows and grows, any small percentage increase of numbers that big will produce trillion dollar deficits that used to be the entire u. S. Budget but leaving that aside, i want to get your thoughts on the debates as well, eliza, what seemed to be unusual criticism after party hero of their eyes, i thought was all of their eyes, barack obama. I want you to react to this, the views expressed last night, then afterwards by rahm emanuel defending president obama. If you want to compare records and frankly im shocked that you do, i am happy to do that. Secretary, we sat together and in many meetings. I never heard him talk about any of this when he was secretary. Mr. Vice president , looks like one of us learned the lessons of the past and one of us hasnt. Vice president biden, i didnt hear your response when issue came up of all the deportations. You were Vice President. You invoked president obama during anybody in this campaign. Cant do it when it is convenient and dodge it when it is not. Shots taken against president barack obama the most popular democrat in the country because joe biden was his Vice President. That struck me a little odd. Strike the word little. The guy is 90 among democrats. Most successful progressive, prolific president who had incredible chief of staff, let me say that, since the great society. What are they doing . Every element of progressivity, from literally wilson and Teddy Roosevelt to franklin roosevelt, great society, forward builds on the progress of generations before, for generations to come. This is nuts. Neil former chief of staff rahm emanuel of president barack obama. What do you make of that, eliza. It was interesting theyre taking jack at obama theyre tying themselves in knots to criticize his record and not go after president obama who is very hard with democrats. I think were seeing them go after biden, his record, his most recent record is as Vice President , to president obama for the last eight years. But i think it is more complicated because obama is still very popular. Weve seen, ive seen lots of candidates invoke him on the trail. Biden certainly, about every five minutes if you go to one of his speeches. Julian castro was housing and urban development secretary. He talks about his time in the Obama Administration. He did go hard on that one point on deportations basically he learned his lesson. But he does talk about his time in the Obama Administration. Democrats are trying to figure out how not to go too hard after a very popular former president but also move with the party, which has moved left. It is complicateed. Neil in other words associate barack obama with the good stuff. Associate joe biden with bad stuff. Which cory booker said you cant have it both ways. Neil capital one apparently not alone. 106 million plus americans whose data was compromised isnt enough. Indication this is same woman allegedly behind it might have targets others and succeeded. After this. Key portfolio events. All in one place. Because when its decision time. You need decision tech. Only from fidelity. You need decision tech. You wouldnt accept from any one else. Why accept it from your allergy pills . Flonase relieves your worst symptoms including nasal congestion, which most pills dont. Flonase helps block 6 key inflammatory substances. Most pills only block one. Flonase. Can the past help you write the future . Can you feel calm in the eye of a storm . Can you do more with less . Can you raise the bar while reducing your footprint . For our 100 years weve been answering the questions of today to meet the energy needs of tomorrow. Southern company neil as we told you the senate has gone ahead to pass the two Year Spending deal to suspends the debt ceiling for couple years. What happens now . I guess chad pergram on capitol hill indicates the president will sign this he promise he will get to cutting very soon. That is still going to happen. We have time to do that. What do you think . That was the tweet the president sent out this morning. I should kind of break this vote down a little bit because it might tell as you lot of things here. The overall vote was 6728. That was bipartisan oh well ming vote. We dont know the precise break down between republicans and democrats, but they were barely above the majority of all Senate Republicans on this. What does that mean . There was a lot of wariness on the republican side to pass this bill. They dont like the fact there is no deficit reduction. Senator rand paul, republican of kentucky, had an amendment which failed overwhelmingly to put in new spending caps, this lifts the spending caps that date back to 2011. Thats a problem. Here is the other issue, neil, this bill does not fund the government. That could be a major issue come september as they try to take the spending numbers they have approved now, put it into live ammo, funding defense, funding dhs. Remember we had a big fight in the winter, 35day Government Shutdown. We dont know if we will be there then but with such weakness from republicans in the numbers, from the Senate Republicans, only 65 republicans in the house voted for that, could that spell danger in the fall . We dont know. But the fact that the president got behind this wholeheartedly, didnt have much of a reception on the republican side of the aisle. That could be a problem. It shows a lack of support by republicans for this plan and just generally a lack of attention to deficit reduction. Do the president s words this morning in that tweet saying well get to deficit reduction, does that ring hollow . I will give you a couple Little Things here. It is hard to address the deficit when, 70 of all spending goes to entitlements. Then more than half of all the other spending goes to defense and this increases defense, neil neil yeah, those caps put in place which were loose to begin with, they blew through those. It is what it is. That was a remnant of the budget control act that they passed in 2011 which was a major fight on capitol hill to raise the debt ceiling. The fact that they kept extending those caps, it made it very unrealistic, very tough for them to pass the Appropriations Bills because the numbers just kept getting, it was smaller and smaller. That was a problem. They can spend more on that side of the ledger but the real problem is the other side, entitlements. None of these bills address that whatsoever. That is the biggest driver of the deficit. Neil yeah it. Neil indeed. You wouldnt see the markets worried about it. Bond market is not worried about it. Everyone is saying move on, move on. Always dangerous. Chad, thank you very, very much. Thank you. Neil all of this is happening in an environment where now suddenly there is a reversal from yesterday where they think Jerome Powell didnt mean it. They reassessed what he said. It is not one and done. There is more to come. At least thats what they hope because were up a lot, after this. Fact is, every Insurance Company hopes you drive safely. But allstate actually helps you drive safely. With drivewise. It lets you know when you go too fast. And brake too hard. With feedback to help you drive safer. Giving you the power to actually lower your cost. Unfortunately, it cant do anything about that. Now that you know the truth. Are you in good hands . Neil all right, weve got a stock rebound here post the feds move yesterday to cut Interest Rates a quarter point. First time weve seen that in what, 11 years. The remarks afterwards with Jerome Powell seemingly signaling that was it. That there werent going to be a succession of rate cuts that prompted more selling afterwards. Now every in said that directly. He talked about a pause, adjustment, that was the interpretation. He said nothing new on this. Fed governors, district president s, those involved in the fomc decision have not added to this. The markets are reinterpreting that making bets of their own there is a 60 plus likelihood in their minds that were going to see an additional cut in september. No one on the fed has indicated that. I want to posit that. It is just the betting that these guys have that theyre going to continue to get their cake and eat it too. If you think about it, if the cake is available you might as well eat it, because it is just sitting there. What are you thinking . Deirdre bolton, much healthier than i from the new york stock exchange. Let me have cake. Neil they like it, right . They like it a lot. Neil, if you look at stocks in the trading pattern, were off the highs of the session, but clearly up all the same. Look at the s p 500, 10 out of 11 groups are moving higher. The ones that are the standout stars, tech, consumer staples, communication services. Look at some stocks moving close, all of those hit that category. Facebook, amazon, netflix, apple, microsoft. And on the dow in particular same kind of pattern. Apple, microsoft, visa accounting for at least 40 of the dows rally. So, neil, you mentioned that ism manufacturing miss. Granted numbers still came in above 50. That is worth noting but it was a miss all the same. Came in 51. 2 in july. Lowest levels since august of 2014. Talking about the fed funds futures, expectations traders have, that the fed might cut again. I didnt not personally interpret any of powells comment. 61 chance now of a cut in september, at least that is what fed funds futures re showing us. Interesting to note that before that ism miss, that number was around 53 . So more and more being priced in as we go. One of the floor traders down here, he says he is focused on the fed as everybody else is, he is more than likely focused on the big if, some sort of agreement between the u. S. And china on tariffs. Neil, back to you. Neil great job as always. That is the latest from there. I want you to Pay Attention to not just stocks moving on this but Mortgage Rates in general are sliding down. Ten year under 2 . The market kind of confirming that this is the trend that will be their friend. A 30year mortgage at 3. 75 . Oh, my god, knee neil will tell us the story about he and his wife got their first house, he will joke about what he and his wife paid per day on the first mortgage. Funny you should say that, because 3. 75 was what my wife and i were paying per day im done. So its low, very, very low. Were not seeing quite the bang for the low Interest Rate buck. Zillow director of Economic Research joins us. Skyler, thanks for taking the time. Thanks for inviting me. Neil you know what is kind of interesting about this, that is a ridiculously low rate. Maybe goes lower, and yet, it is not that housing is tanking by my means but i would be thinking it would be getting a lot more boom. What is going on . I think Interest Rates are playing a role. So over the past quarter, we saw home appreciation really pull back, really, really soften. We have one month of negative growth on a National Level since we havent seen going into the crisis with a downturn. That is surprising, the most recent release for the june data last week, home values came back up again. It was one month of negative growth. Now were back to albeit modest, but positive growth. I think the Interest Rates are helping to do that. Theyre bolstering the slowdown and making it much more moderate over time, that is a good thing. That is not to say, that you know, housing markets are still are not pretty expensive that is the rub, right . Interest rates are lower. That helps you on the monthly payment. It does nothing to save for the down payment. That is the biggest barrier for most homebuyers, firsttime home buyers these days. Neil this is tangential to housing but the fha is revising home equity, loan rules, you cant cash out 85 of equity on the home. More like 80 . And other, you know, more tightening up here. Why are they doing that . And are you worried that this is going to put a crimp on home buying activity . Yeah. I think the reason why theyre doing that is because the top of mind everyone has is the example of, you know the housing bust and boom. That really was driven by excess credit. So rolling back credit, making it a little bit tougher is keeping the system healthy because right now, what even drove us to the fact that home values are slowing down now because home values were really overexuberant, right . Growing too fast a pace. A lot had to do with low inventory, strong demand, crazy bidding wars. Everyone knows the struggle of the firsttime homebuyer. Im not that worried. Why am i not worried . If i think about housing over the long term, next five years, every year, for the next seven or eight years, more people will be entering early 30s than the year before. That is prime firsttime home buying age. That will continue to keep pressure on in housing. There will be a lot of interest in buying homes. Sentiment is still very strong, rent is really expensive. So a lot of things will still channel and funnel heat and pressure, interests and demand towards home buying. Even i think with a bit tighter credit standards, that keep the system healthier. Neil i still see a lot of for sale signs across all price point in a lot of communities, wealthy, not so wealthy, where homes are the on the market a little longer than usual. What do you make of that . Yeah. That is a part of the slowdown. So starting about six months ago, longer, if im thinking about really expensive markets like seattle and san jose, the exuberant highflyers of previous years, we started to see inventories swell. That wasnt because there was a sudden increase in the rate of new homes, not just new construction, but new homes coming to the market so new inventory. That wasnt what was increasing. What was slowing down was the sales, right . They werent being harvested quite as quickly so homes spent longer on market. We saw a percentage of lizzings with price cuts shoot up. That is an indicator there were expectations what your home could sell for werent being met. They were not being met. A lot of buyers were looking around at the home value appreciation, the fact that their incomes didnt keep pace and were starting to recognize they really couldnt put their foot in the door. The biggest deal was saving up for the down payment t was exhausting. So you saw a lot of buyers pulling back. So we know from those metrics im talking about. In the future i think it will turn back around. You can almost think of this way as the slowdown was an important reset, right . To keep the down payment a little bit more modest. Neil a slowdown beat as meltdown. Well see what happens. Thank you very, very much. Yeah. Neil Interest Rates under 2 for the 10year. More after this. But this. This is my forte. Obviously, for auto insurance, weve got the wheel route. Obviously. Retirement, were going with a longterm play. Makes sense. Pet insurance, wait, let me guess. Flea flicker. Yes howd you know . Studying my playbook . Yeah, actually. Quadrupled their money by 2012 . And even now many experts predict the next gold rush is just beginning. So dont wait another day. Physical coins are easy to buy and sell and one of the best ways to protect your life savings from the next financial meltdown. [narrator] today, the u. S. Money reserve announces the Immediate Release of u. S. Governmentissued solid gold coins for the incredible price on your screen. These Gold American eagles are official gold coins of the United States and are being sold for the price on your screen. Pick up the phone and call americas gold authority, u. S. Money reserve. With nearly two decades in business, over a billion dollars in transactions, and more than a half a million clients worldwide, u. S. 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Neil is it me or is it easy to hack everybody right now . This is way beyond capital one, now signs everybody was behind that, they have one person in particular might have been behind, continues attack on earth entities. Grady trimble on that. Were worning or than potential hacker. She threatened to shoot up unnamed social Media Company back in may ordering to newlyreleased court documents. On top of that, the capital one breach affecting one had hundred million americans the tip of the iceberg according to an israeli cybersecurity firm. Fbi is looking to see if page thompson is hacking other organizations. The former amazon employee bragged about that breach and they dug up more online posts referencing ford, vodafone and Ohio Department of transportation. I reached out to all the organizations. Ford says theyre investigating. Vodafone was more precise. We take security very seriously. Vodafone is not aware of any information that relates to the cap one security breach. This from the ohio dot, we cannot confirm if there is any access. We do know the file referenced in online forum contains only publicly accessible traffic crash data. It doesnt contain any personal information. Ohio d. O. T. Says they dont even use amazon web services. That Cloud Services where capital one stored the stolen data. Thompson used to work for amazon. Capital ones stock you can see dived quite a bit this week after news about the breach broke of right now we dont have any official word from federal investigators indicating any of those companies which mentioned are victims of the hack but if we find out more, well let you know. Neil incredible. Thank you, great reporting, grady. Even with concerns about a slowdown, Everything Else, youre not seeing in both top line, bottomline growth and that is the wind at this markets back. So far. groans hmph. food grunting menacingly when the food you love doesnt love you back, stay smooth and fight heartburn fast with tums smoothies. Tum tumtum tum tums Jerome Powell just dropped Interest Rates. He admitted why . Because of this socalled trade policy that this president has that has been nothing more than the trump trade that resulted in American Families spending as much as 1. 4 billion a month from everything from shampoo to wash be machines. Neil a rare moment in otherwise keep your mind off Money Matters in a debate where Federal Reserve Jerome Powell was mentioned. Touche for nerds in the reference to this. Greg rayburn, whether Kamala Harris was on to something, saying that the trade situation was what prompted the Interest Rate cut in the first place, what you can get from a rate cut, you lose with all the other higher costs as a result. Anyway, that is i think what she was getting at, greg. Do you buy that . I dont buy the sort of connection that she is trying to make. I would agree that you know, whats going on with china, particular and with the tariffs isnt helping an already strained economy. But you and i have been talking about the fact that i think were more likely heading for recession since early this calendar year. I dont think the economy underneath is really changed. Stock market might be doing well, most americans dont even own stocks that has no bearing on the actual economy. And you know the fed cutting rate, i mean it is a recognition where the economy is, i think, right now, i expect you will see more. Neil well, the impetus behind this cut had nothing to do with that view that the economy is weakening which would normally prompt a cut but it was an insurance move ahead of time, and maybe in a twisted piece of logic, to spur inflation. It sounds a little upside down to me but what do you think . You know inflation is a funny top i can. If you ask average americans, are they spending more for basic goods and services, theyre going to tell you that they are. Theyre probably going to have a different outlook on inflation than the fed might have in terms of their policy and their decision making. Again i think it is probably a safer bet that this will not be the only rate cut in terms of, how the fed is going to look at, you know, where were headed. I think there is also a lot going on. I heard your earlier guest that it is not as rosy as some may paint as well. Neil you have to wonder, a long way from the Elizabeth Warren prediction of another meltdown possibly 10 years after the last one, but that, you would expect, with rates this low, to see a lot more activity. Why dont you think we are . Again, it is i think it is dislocation in the economy as we talked about before. If you look at the market, you have these extraordinarily low rates. So what we have is refinance activity, but we do not have firsttime buyers. You know, if you really think about a longterm view, the early stage baby boomers were the last group that could buy real estate and never lose money. That is a long time ago. That is not where we are now. So she may say, wow, 30 is the prime time for a firsttime buyer to buy a home. It isnt actually. There are a lot of people who questioned whether that is going to be a good investment. Then you have got sort of the highend of the market, what weve seen here in charleston here is second and third generations cannot after to keep these Historic Homes on the peninsula. They cant even pay property taxes for the homes. That is pretty much across the country. Because if you have income divided the way we have, you have the top 1 controlling, you have fewer highend buyers, nobody coming underneath that will be wanting those properties. Neil all right, thank you very, my friend. Good catching up with you. Greg rayburn, former hostess ceo. As greg was speaking, were monitoring, joe biden is speaking to reporters following his debate last night. Was very surprised they singled out the Ball Administration for some failures like at the border and deportations and obamacare itself, the Affordable Care act. Associating him with some of the failures of the administration, but not barack obama directly. As rahm emanuel was saying on our wall street show, it is odd to go after the most Popular Party standardbearer for the timebeing and think youre going to get a positive response from that. From joe biden the message is, are you nuts . Following more after this. Imagine traveling hasslefree with your golf clubs. Now you can, with shipsticks. Com no more lugging your clubs through the airport or risk having your clubs lost or damaged by the airlines. Sending your own clubs ahead with shipsticks. Com makes it fast easy to get to your golf destination. With just a few clicks or a phone call, well pick up and deliver your clubs ontime, guaranteed, for as low as 39. 99. Shipsticks. Com saves you time and money. Make it simple. Make it ship sticks. Neil all right. Housing is not a big beneficiary so far right now of the drop in Interest Rates here, and there are signs that the fha could make things more difficult to refinance the one youre in, take out a home equity loan. Joe biden is talking up his performance last night, where he survived, but expressing some surprise talking to reporters as we speak that barack obama and the Obama Administration, some of its achievements, our border and economic issues, medical issues, health care issues, did not get a free pass last night, that that is a subject that worries him. And we call this the aging mob movie. Its a netflix offer that the company couldnt confuse. We will tell you about it, why im intrigued by it, because there are ways to make someone look younger instantly. Think of that. Neil all right. After the falloff, the comeback or attempted comeback. With the president indicating right now no fan of the Federal Reserve and that they didnt do enough, there are signs at least in the markets here that they think the Federal Reserve will do more, and Jerome Powell will signal more rate cuts, even though he sent a signal interpreted by some it was one and done and this was it. That would be very different from prior rate cutting cycles, where we have seen at least three cuts when we started cutting. Well see. We have Michael Goodwin with us, max burns and anne berry. Anne, first of all, its always risky to interpret a Federal Reserve chairmans statement, but the feeling was that he signaled this is just a oneshot deal. C did you buy that . I think it was probably likely to be a oneshot deal but the word he kept using over and over again if you look at the transcript of his speech was accommodating. He kept saying we are going to be accommodative from here on in. I didnt get the sense it was necessarily one shot. I got more the sense it was a change in outlook that was going to continue to watch more than just the domestic Economic Indicators to inform policy for the rest of the year. That was a slightly different flavor. Neil he also used the word adjustment several times. Im wondering if it was an adjustment, you are looking at this just from a democratic operatives perspective, what does that mean . If you are any of these candidates that want that job, the president s job . I think this gives opponents a lot of ammo to point out the economy is maybe not as good as the president led us to believe. Powell said this was brought in to combat head winds and challenges in the economy brought on by President Trumps trade war in china. We know this. Were not opening up the emergency money to farmers because everything is going well. Its just another indicator that maybe this economy that President Trump is campaigning on is not as strong as he might like. Neil the president said the fed, Jerome Powell, let him down, let us all down. Well, look, i think its for democrats, the issue is will you campaign for higher Interest Rates, are you going to say that china is not a problem, lets make a deal and give them our intellectual property and let them keep stealing our infrastructure jobs and things like that, our manufacturing jobs. So i dont think this is necessarily a good political opening for democrats. As for the president , he has been saying for a long time that the fed was not accommodating enough vis a vis china and the European Union central banks, so when you say that powell used the word accommodating seven times, im thinking neil i dont know about accommodating. Adjustment. But i think that does go to the heart of the president s argument, whether hes caving in to the president , i dont know, but i think it was an argument the president was making for months and months and months. Neil i want to switch, if you dont mind, joe biden is still speaking to reporters right now post his debate performance last night and he said he was surprised that the party was getting to the point of criticizing a lot of achievements of the Obama Administration. Now, i think what they were trying to say is anything bad in the Obama Administration was on biden, anything good was barack obama. Having said that, it does make you wonder, he is their most popular standard bearer and im wondering what the end game is here. Its actually very dangerous path for the Democratic Candidates to start going down, because looking backwards to the Obama Administration, is not going to reach the electorate who understand its going to be different going forward. They now have a president who is running on extremely strong economic platform. So there needs to be a message that talks about whats going to be different and incremental and additive. They arent going to get there if they keep looking backward. Biden should be concerned this will accentuate the divisions across the party. Neil it was and is. This is from the former Vice President a couple minutes ago. Listen to this. I hope the next debate, we can talk about how we fix, our answers that fix the things trump has broken, not how barack obama made all these mistakes. He didnt. He didnt. So i want to make it clear that this going back 10, 20, 30 years is just a game thats a game to make sure that we hand the republicans an election. Neil what do you think of that . If were concerned about going back 20 or 30 years, its because there are things that we dont want people to find and thats the case with joe biden. I disagree that were attacking president obama. The president himself said that single payer was what he would prefer, that thats where we should go. The Affordable Care act was never meant to be the last word in health care. It was fixing a neil going beyond that, right . It went to deportations, went to things he did that they now find anathema to the party. The deportation is just a fact. President obama deported a lot of people. If we want to grapple with this as a party and come away stronger, not every conversation we have is going to be positive and Everybody Holding hands. Its going to be tough but they are conversations we need to have. Neil what do you think of how this debate rages, though . Two days of debates where you did have moderates and progressives at least challenging each other. A little more the first night than the second night. Well, first, i always define whats going on there as not so much moderates versus progressives as the far left versus the far, far left. I dont think theres a moderate on any of these stages. But i do believe that the conflict we saw each night with everybody ganging up on the top tier candidates, i mean, the way the split was, you had two top tier candidates, warren and sanders the first night, biden and harris the second night, and both of them or all four of them got hit. Warren and sanders for being too far out on the left and biden and harris for not being far enough. So i think the party is in a very confused state right now. I mean, you have 20 very ambitious people all wanting the same job, but i think they are a long way from resolving it. Neil i wonder, when you have a good equipment environment, we can quibble over the quality of the jobs, but you have a very good economy so you obviously pivot to other issues, you can talk about unfairness, those who are doing well and those who arent doing nearly as well, you can talk about deportations or go back to health care and the mistakes obama biden made, but you do have to pivot, right . You do, and you also have to do it in a very memorable and specific way. I think thats where we are seeing weakness. Whoever comes out being the nominee is going to be running against a president with a very forceful powerful way with memorable words. And what i think is interesting, as you were speaking, mayor pete said it, no matter when they run on its going to be the left or the far left. They just need to pick their policy, get out there and get a very strong message going. I think thats accentuated with the strength of the economy we have. Theyve got to come up with whatever specific policies they want and be very clear and persuasive in their communication. Neil one thing, i mentioned it to republican guests, democratic guests, and maybe its a statement on our times, no one talks about the debt. No one talks about the debt. They signed on two more years to continue doing this at a trillion dollars a year, more red ink. Thats your generation thats going to be dealing with that which is fine. We appreciate that. Neil do you find that surprising . No, i think republicans have known for years that lawyers dont care about spending. They hold democrats to moderation and austerity and tight spending, but when theyre in power, President Trump is, what, 20 or 30 ahead of where barack obama was at this point. Neil so when he says President Trump, do this budget deal, i like this budget deal, theres plenty of time to cut the answer is the economys great because you spend like democrats. If you want a good economy and spending that helps people, put in democrats. Dont waste time with this stuff. Neil what do you think of that . I think paul ryan was the last person in congress who really believed that you had to tackle entitlements and had the courage to do it. Neil look what happened to him. Exactly. Politicians are many things but they are not stupid when it comes to seeing what works and what doesnt work. I think theres just, theres no appetite in the general public for cutting spending. A lot of wonks say we have to do it, and we do, but theres no public appetite for it. You get killed politically if you try. Neil yeah, you do. We will also monitor what are going to be some of the big issues that come up in the next debate and furthermore, what David Stockman is saying about this. The former reagan budget director was here. Neither party seems to care about this but you should. The threat to capitalism, the threat to prosperity, the threat to Free Enterprise economics, if you want to call it that, is the Federal Reserve. Driverless cars. All ground personnel. Or trips to mars. 4. 95. Delivery drones or the latest phones. 4. 95. No matter what you trade, at fidelity its just 4. 95 per online u. S. Equity trade. No matter what you trade, at fidelity you wouldnt accept from any one else. Why accept it from your allergy pills . Flonase relieves your worst symptoms including nasal congestion, which most pills dont. Flonase helps block 6 key inflammatory substances. Most pills only block one. Flonase. Neil all right. Joe biden has wrapped up his little conversation with reporters here, as he continues campaigning after last nights performance. He survived. Thats probably one good way to put it. He was saying, quoting here, i think my views are where the advanced majority of democrats are. Went on to say i will win pennsylvania, i will win ohio and i can win michigan. If he were to tick all of those states, he would deny unless donald trump could find the same electoral votes elsewhere, reelection to the white house. Back with me, Michael Goodwin, max burns, ann berry. I guess the former Vice President is saying i survived, i did better than i did last time but he didnt win any medals. He just survived. Hes at least acknowledging tacitly with the name recognition and the step ahead hes got, really for him the bar is different than for other candidates. He can be mediocre, competent or adequate. He just cant fail. I think as long as hes ticking those boxes he feels hes in a pretty decent place. Hes acknowledging some element of that in his comments. Neil there were a disproportionate number of questions that went to him. I guess they had 30 seconds to respond, that piled up a lot of 30 seconds responses. How did he do with that crowd . Biden i think held his own. He didnt have any real standout moments but as ann said, he didnt really need them. It was just to hold in place. Thats what really is going to hurt him as the field winnows, you have dynamic people like Kamala Harris, pete buttigieg, Julian Castro who are putting forth ideas and catch phrases people can repeat. Nobody can tell me what joe bidens immigration policy is after last night or what his Health Care Policy is after last night. Neil none of them are very good at dollar figures. There were no questions about spending at all. Neil you know, you left out de blasio which i found very interesting. One of the more memorable comments last night to me was when he said we will tax the hell out of the wealthy. What did you think . He has taken to using profanity in a way to get attention. Hes obviously desperate to get into the next debate in september. It gets harder to do that as they winnow the field. I think he makes a fool of himself when he goes out there like that. Then when the questions came back to him about his performance, particularly with lead in the new york city apartments, he just makes it up. We are going to eradicate but you have been lying about it for four years. All your deputies lied on federal forms. Some of them should have been prosecuted for covering this up. De blasio himself i think has a long string of very questionable activities. He was investigated for corruption, cleared i think really on quite almost technical grounds. He didnt put the money in his own pocket. So i just think hes a fool, hes got really two and a half years left in his term, hes not doing a very good job as mayor, hes not here very often. He tweeted about the rainstorm the other night from michigan, to be careful. Come on, man. The last blackout, he wasnt even here. Neil well, but the one thing i thought he said, what a lot of those other candidates up there were thinking when it came to taxing the rich. Im wondering, well, they might not say we want to tax the hell out of the rich. They want to tax them more than theyre taxed now. To a man or woman, they want to reverse the tax cuts that went into effect at a minimum, others like Elizabeth Warren are advocating a wealth tax, et cetera. Where is this going . I think what de blasio did, to your point, is try to escalate the rhetoric. But what he didnt do which i think Elizabeth Warren has been trying to differentiate herself with, they are talking about specific policies. So i think as we continue to see the candidates try to differentiate themselves, talking about the specifics is important so i think absolutely all of them will run on a platform of increased income taxes and increased corporate taxes. I think its very hard to see any of these policies funded without that. Neil the least onerous of those ideas i think were bidens, right, where he said he didnt want to return it to the old top rate, the corporate rate, from 21 to 28 and that was looked upon with relief. What do you think . You have the spectrum from Bernie Sanders who says hes going to raise taxes on the middle class that will result in a net decrease in how much they are spending on health care, to Elizabeth Warren, who wants to do this through derivatives taxes and taxes on wall street. We are going to end up somewhere on that spectrum towards raising taxes because we have people like here in new york that are buying 234 million penthouse apartments while most people dont even have money to pay for their prescription drugs. Its about time they paid a little bit more to get a more equitable outcome for the country. Neil you know, the International Investor mark mobias was talking, i found this very interesting, that the markets will go heywire if the president loses reelection, that once the markets have a chance to size up reversal of some of those tax cuts, maybe a tight regulation again, i think that was the gist of his remarks, theres all financial hell to pay. Thats exactly what the president said. Well, its hard to conclude that the runup in the markets over the last two and a half years are disconnected from the president s economic and tax policies. So i think the democrats want to pretend that everything is terrible and that we have all these new needs that we must raise taxes on, but history tells us that the money has to come from somewhere, and so something will suffer. So i think theyre living in a fantasyland to think this will not have an impact on the real economy that people experience every day. I mean, there are reasons why the market is that high. It has everything to do with the trump policies. I dont see how you can escape that. Now, you may want to say well, its too high neil Jerome Powell took a bow for a lot of that. He did. One thing that did interest me, i know Elizabeth Warren is on record, we could have another housing crash, she i think pretty much predicted the last one, right . So her concern is that the same froth is there, the same lack of oversight is there. We have these agencies and requirements and everything in place for banks to avoid it, but i was reminded of that with these new fha guidelines for loans that would let you take less equity out of your home. And further stringent requirements, how often you can go to the well of the home to tap it again. Obviously, that in and of itself isnt a housing killer, but it would be a housing slower, wouldnt it . I think its less a housing slower than just making sure we continue to have a steady path. When youve got an environment like this one where you have very cheap credit which is going to stimulate enormous demand potentially for mortgages, for example, credit cards, also loans, its important that the quality of the credit being issued is maintained. Neil we dont get to the junk kind of stage. Is that what shes saying . We have to admit its been ten years since the great recession. We havent solved predatory lending. The large ust subset of borrowe taking money out of their homes are veterans. They are taking out money at exorbitant fees, sometimes 70 in fees for every hundred dollars they get and the number one reason they are doing it is to pay for medical bills. That doesnt sound like an economy thats working for people. The fact that neil subset of this. Thats not okay. Neil im not saying it is. Is that the kind of stuff that in retrospect you say the tightening on home equity loans, taking out additional mortgages, mortgages themselves, will lead to something worrisome . I dont see that in the short term. I think anns point is a good one. This is taking some of the most risky things out without disrupting the real growth. Neil do you see anything frothy in housing . I think many parts hope they can get back to frothy days. Theyre not. Certainly in new york city, we have had a lot of building but as i understand it, prices are falling 25 , 30 in some cases at high end so i dont know neil your point is that feeds on itself, not minimizing what you said about veterans and some of them getting really badly in debt but the same features are there. I just look at Interest Rates. Usually when we drop rates you will see mortgages go up. This is one of the first times where we are starting to see the number of new mortgages declining even as Interest Rates are declining. Neil do you get the sense that if housing doesnt respond to this, and to your point, it is not with this steady drop, we are at 3. 75 on the 30year, lower for other types of instruments, and its not moving the needle. Im not saying were melting at all, but for sale signs and what you were talking about going on in manhattan and elsewhere, they linger. They continue lingering. I think thats the big question around whether there should have been a 50 basis point cut or whether another cut is coming when we look out to september, which is the impact of a fed rate cut may be beginning to decline simply because the impact they can have when we had the runup neil no one is shocked anymore. Wow, thats really low. Its not this huge catalyst, and leaving housing aside for the moment, one of the big target sectors for the rate cut was manufacturing, where we have seen two consecutive quarters of decline. Theres a big question mark whether a rate cut alone can stimulate a pickup given the context of other things like trade going on that also impacts that. Its a complicated network of events. Neil all right. Thank you all. We are getting some final figures on that senate vote here on this measure to keep the government lights on for another couple years and avoid a debt ceiling quagmire in the meantime. It was overwhelmingly approved, by twothirds margin, but, but, but 29 republicans voted against it. That follows on the heels of a majority of republicans in the house who voted against this. Still overwhelming numbers when all is said and done, but these are the republicans who were denying the president s plea, if you will, demand, in the case of some, that this not be a Republican Party fight, that everyone go along because they will get serious about this come next year. 29 saying we dont like it happening this year. 29 republicans voting against this. More after this. When i walked through a snowstorm for a cigarette, thats when i knew i had to quit. For real this time. Thats why im using nicorette. Only nicorette gum has patented dualcoated technology for great taste. Plus intense craving relief. Every great why, needs a great how. Neil the minimum wage is up, up and away but it may be forcing one business to charge 20 bucks for a burger because the cost of keeping the help is getting out of control. Robert gray is in emoryville, california with that story. Reporter we are down the street from pixar studios. This is a very small city, 2. 1 square miles, about 12,000 residents here. We are definitely seeing this play out, the balance between paying workers more in a very high cost of living city with small businesses, 55 or fewer employees, in this case, in keeping their Profit Margins healthy enough to keep sustaining itself. You are looking at an area where we know housing is extremely expensive, utilities are, and so is food as well. In fact, the highest minimum wage after july 1st went up to 16. 30 an hour, more than twice the federal number and two bucks higher than california as well at 15 an hour. The demand has always been the highest minimum wage clearly helps the employees who are making it but it could lead to layoffs and fewer hours. That is the juggling act going on right now as people are adjusting. Its hitting restaurants particularly hard because they have narrow Profit Margins. Tipped employees in california cannot make less than the minimum wage. In most other states, they can. Restaurant owners say they definitely support paying their workers more but are concerned the new law could dig into their profit margin and that may force them to raise prices. We continue to go up and up and up and the cheeseburger that was 13 today is 20 in two years, im not sure all that translates into our revenue on a monthly basis. We have to be careful because people are price sensitive. Reporter as i mentioned, its a very small footprint. In a couple minutes time you could be in oakland or berkeley. Customers can choose to go elsewhere if prices go too high. The city council originally passed a pause in the hike from 15 to 16. 30 for restaurants, then they overturned that. They were going to give them time to adjust. Thats since been overturned. And the minimum wage could go even higher next year. Its indexed to the local cpi, if you will. One owner told me hes too busy running his business to keep up with that. The last thing i will say, they would like a little help from the tax man. They are saying if they are going to pay more, maybe they can get a break on payroll or other taxes. Neil thank you, robert gray. Theres a cost for everything. Theres a cost for this. You might wonder what the heck happened to the dow in just the last couple minutes to cut its gains in half. The president has gone ahead and promised he will impose 10 tariffs on 300 billion of chinese goods starting september 1st. That would mean everything we get from china, essentially every item that comes into this country from china, will be the subject of tariffs, including 10 on those items that have never had tariffs on them in the past. The markets dont know what to make of this, that it could be a way to get the chinese who are coming here in september to deal with this and try to get a deal expedited, or it just could be fact. More after this. Let me ask you something. Can the past help you write the future . Can you feel calm in the eye of a storm . Can you do more with less . Can you raise the bar while reducing your footprint . For our 100 years weve been answering the questions of today to meet the energy needs of tomorrow. Southern company neil you know, im always fascinated by how the markets react to a sudden news item. In the case of trade, is it good for trade, does it mean a deal could happen . The president suddenly announcing hes going to impose an additional 10 tariff on 300 billion worth of chinese imports that hadnt been hit already. This means all chinese products that come to this country will be hit. Some can interpret that as a brilliant negotiating ploy or say are you nuts, this is crazy. Right now its the latter, are you nuts, this is crazy. Because better than 100 point gain has been wiped out for the time being. Lets get the read from Edward Lawrence following all this very very closely. Whats the latest . Reporter hey, neil. The third option that hes very frustrated with whats happening with china and this could be a result of the briefing the president got this afternoon or today from the trade negotiators, u. S. Trade representative Robert Lighthizer talking facetoface with the president about what happened in shanghai. Now, the president tweeting obviously possibly as a result of that briefing that he got, the tweet there saying that on september 1st, he will put basically Everything Else that china imports under a 10 tariff, thats 300 billion worth of goods coming into our country here. Sadly, the president says or goes on in these tweets to say that he believes that the chinese are trying to renegotiate this trade deal when they already had a trade deal. Again, this could be frustration from the president here. The two sides are talking, but they are obviously saying two Different Things publicly. China has said that the u. S. Has agreed to remove huawei from the entity list. The Commerce Department told me today that is not the case. There are still 50 applications, though, from 35 companies to sell products to huawei. The ceo from intel says they are one of the companies hoping to sell a general purpose computer product to huawei. Still, china talking with the Chinese Commerce spokesperson saying the u. S. Needs to follow through with the commitment with huawei. Also saying that the chinese will buy more agriculture from the u. S. According to domestic needs. Right now, china is considering lowering tariffs on agriculture goods from the United States but they also have an agreement with russia to help the russians grow more soybeans as well as add infrastructure to ship it to china. The soybeans exports from the u. S. To china dropped 96 from 2017 to 2018. Exports from russia to china increased 65 during that same time frame. Still, the administration saying tariffs are working and they will get china to the trade deal. Tariffs are good. Tariffs are raising revenues, they are helping defend our steel and aluminum industries, they are helping to get china to the negotiating table. Do you think china would be at the negotiating table . No, i dont. Tariffs in the china case work beautifully. Reporter but there are no signs right now that a trade deal is imminent related with china or even happening this year. Chinese sources say they are not planning on having a trade deal or gearing up for one this year. The president tweeting out earlier that basically china, iran and other Foreign Countries are looking forward to democrats and drooling over the prospect that they could be dealing with them. President trump saying if hes reelected that absolutely will not be the case. Theres a sense the chinese may be waiting for the election to happen. Also a sense the chinese may be waiting for the u. S. Economy to turn south, therefore, they could get better terms in a trade deal. But again, as of right now, it does not appear a trade deal would be likely this year. The president upping the ante now, obviously saying september 1st, morte tariffs at a 10 level. He could go to 25 , but hes staying at that 10 level to start. Neil these are the same ones he had delayed prior so he put them back on to start september 1st, then again, just to let you know, that means everything coming in from china will have some sort of tariff, anywhere from 10 to 25 . The oil markets are not liking. Again, that would happen if you suspect a global slowdown as a result. Demand is impacted, theres a finite supply, prices go down. Nou t you know the drill there. Lets get the read from janney chief strategist. Too early to see how the day ends up but the kneejerk reaction from traders is uhoh. How would you describe this moment . Well, its completely irrational. The fact of the matter is it will impose a tax on another 30 billion, 10 of 300 billion and if it goes beyond that, 40 of this tranche of goods we import from china, 40 of the 300 billion are retail or consumer related goods, unlike so much before thats been tariffed which had more of an industrial application, feed stock to industries. So as a consequence of that, even though the consumer has been very strong as demonstrated by retail sales, personal consumption factors and so on, this is going to impact Consumer Spending on some level, and companies that knew this may be coming like walmart and target have already said they are likely to pass along these tariffs in the way of price increases rather than being able to absorb them. Neil you know, bonds typically telegraph whatever the sentiment is in the economy. If things look strong, bond prices all of a sudden drop and the idea they lose their value and yields rise, its the opposite right now on the fear this is going to slow things down. That and oil are telling you that for the time being. Do you agree with that . Well, partially. Reason why im not wholeheartedly is i think a huge influence on bond prices is the world is awash in negative yields. We have 14 trillion estimated of global debt that offer yields less than nothing. So we look like a high yield market compared to most other sovereigns around the world but i think there is a part of that in oil prices and tenyear treasuries which is signaling what you said. Neil well watch closely. Thank you for the time. Im sorry with this breaking news we dont have more time. Here is how fast things are happening right now. Take a look at the bond again. I think if we can have a print on this, it is now under, under 1. 90 . This is literally happening. Get that off, guys, its wrong. That tells you how quickly this has happened. Its affected people now thinking all right, i need a safe place to park money right now and bonds seem to be it for the time being. This portends a slowdown, the interpretation of one that might be shortlived but very real in the eyes of traders who are thinking we thought this was going well. Signs right now it is not. The read from the white house after this. All right brad, once again i have revolutionized the songwriting process. Oh, here we go. I know i cant play an instrument, but this. This is my forte. Obviously, for auto insurance, weve got the wheel route. Obviously. Retirement, were going with a longterm play. Makes sense. Pet insurance, wait, let me guess. Flea flicker. Yes howd you know . Studying my playbook . Yeah, actually. I was on the fence about changing from a manual to an electric toothbrush. But my hygienist said going electric could lead to way cleaner teeth. She said, get the one inspired by dentists, with a round brush head. Go pro with oralb. Oralbs gentle rounded brush head removes more plaque along the gum line. For cleaner teeth and healthier gums. And unlike sonicare, oralb is the First Electric toothbrush brand accepted by the ada for its effectiveness and safety. What an amazing clean ill only use an oralb oralb. Brush like a pro. Neil by the way, its not just stocks that are taking it on the chin, falling from a 300 point gain to a drop on this news the president has gone ahead and upped the ante with the chinese by promising a 10 tariff on 300 billion worth of chinese imports. Look what its done to oil prices. They are collapsing. Look what its done to the tenyear treasury note. A lot of people looking for flight to quality or safe place to put in a slow Economic Growth world, if growth at all, on the fears this spreads globally now. And this trade tension has now become a trade war. The yield now 1. 88 , lowest in three years. Reaction at the white house, where all this really kind of started. Reporter yeah, we started your show by saying that the president was going to be meeting with his trade team this morning to get a readout of everything that happened in shanghai. I just two minutes ago saw a member of the trade team the we wing, rather, and we just saw the statement from the president in the last seven, i think its safe to say its a pretty realtime reaction from President Trump right now. This tweet which is essentially a statement that he just released. A couple things here, neil. My first glance at it, it actually seems pretty massaged when you read it. It says the president says this is a small additional tariff of 10 for someone who had proclaimed himself a tariff man to talk about tariffs in a small way kind of caught my eye, then it ends by saying we look forward to continuing our positive dialogue with china on a comprehensive trade deal and feel that the future between our two countries will be a very bright one. Very diplomatic statement is kind of what im getting. So thats one thing. The other, of course, this timeline, september 1st is when the president says this next batch of 10 will go on. As we know, both sides, the u. S. And china, said that the trade talks, the next trade talks, presuming they will happen, will be in september so what the president is seemingly doing here is setting himself up again to potentially maybe put a pause on those tariffs or at least enter the talks with new tariffs if they go well, maybe he will decide to pull them back. But neil, that is just kind of a first glance look. I take you back to what me and you had been discussing i believe a couple different times on your show this week. Youve got to take a microscope at this point to try to look at anything positive with the trade discussions. I mean, look at where we started this week. The president openly musing that china might be trying to wait him out until the november 2020 election for a trade deal. I asked the president well, does that mean that were not going to get a trade deal for another 15 months or so, and he said to me on the south lawn two days ago well, china would like to wait me out, they would like to have a deal but the deal is up to me entirely. So its not entirely clear where all of this stands. And then we found out that these talks were going to happen in september, which is a full month gap of the last discussions and now were talking about tariffs. If you can find any sort of positive from this, let me know. I would like to hear your view on it. Neil you know whats interesting, this is in response to getting an update on the talks and how theyre going and the president , were told, was miffed the chinese havent done more on their prior promise to buy more agricultural items but it went beyond that. Reporter it went to fentanyl because this is something the president has been holding up, saying this is deadly, this kills americans every single day all across this country, and it is something that he said that he brought in, i forget at which facetoface discussion, i believe down in argentina at the end of last year, and president xi agreed to it. Something that was really not a part of the trade talks, but a talking point, and a real solution to make sure fentanyl doesnt make its way into our communities. Now youve got the president saying that president xi or at least china isnt really doing anything about it. So youre going beyond a trade matter to really a lifeanddeath matter and remember, the president has always said and president s past, that the first responsibility is to ensure the safety of the american public. Neil all right. Great reporting, as always, blake. Thank you very much. Blake burman. For those of you just tuning in, nearly 300 plus point gain on the dow has reversed itself. We swung the other way on news the president wants to slap tariffs on every remaining chinese good that we get into this country. Thats pretty much what it comes down to, beginning on september 1st, everything we get from china will be the subject to at least a 10 tariff, some as many as 25 . When i came on this show, we had 28 of the dow 30 stocks in the green. Right now, the tradesensitive ones, intel comes to mind, dow comes to mind, boeing, united technologies, apple by extension, Goldman Sachs with exposure there, caterpillar, all, all have gone into the red. In the case of goldman, in the case of caterpillar, by a fairly steep amount. That is disproportionately the dow. Interest rates tumbling as investors park their money in bonds, convinced if this continues, its going to lead to a slowdown. You know how hot and cold this goes. But this is in direct response to the trade thing. It has nothing to do right now with the Federal Reserve. It has nothing to do with earnings or the lack thereof. It has everything to do with the president of the United States just making this move moments ago to say this trade war is on. It most certainly is. More after this. groans hmph. food grunting menacingly when the food you love doesnt love you back, stay smooth and fight heartburn fast with tums smoothies. Tum tumtum tum tums neil all right. Well, that was interesting. We were racing along up over 300 points on the dow for awhile here. In fact, we were maintaining, you know, triple digit advances in the dow and all the other averages are doing just fine, thank you. Then all of a sudden, word out of the white house that the president wants to impose these 10 tariffs on every last item of chinese goods that come into this country, about 300 billion worth. So that would mean come september 1st, everything we get from china, unless something dramatically changes in the next month, anywhere from 10 to 25 . That immediately, immediately hit some of the economically sensitive and trade sensitive issues that dominate the dow. We are going to be cycling through some of these. It also hit the bond market, in a good way, if you want to park your money in something safe because the more money that pours into bonds, obviously the lower the yield goes. We are now at threeyear lows in yields. Then oil markets, of course, a good interpreter of the overall environment. The overall environment is deemed to be slow, then you dont need as much oil. So the demand for that just takes an aboutface. That is the aboutface we are seeing in oil, down right now better than four bucks a barrel. The read from our august panel on this, what to make of it with Michael Goodwin of the New York Post Pulitzer Prize winning columnist, democratic strategist ann berry. You were kind of hinting this might be in the works. Explain. My fear going into the fed announcement yesterday was a rate cut, particularly where it wasnt obvious one would needed, would embolden President Trump to lean in harder both in terms of china and possibly starting to direct tariffs toward other trading partners because i think with signs now even though hes frustrated that the cut wasnt as deep as he wanted, that the fed will accommodate trade policy, this may be a sign of more to come. Neil well, you could argue perversely that the trade war was the reason or the rationale behind having the president s back or the economys back on the part of the Federal Reserve, just in case it was needed, right . Now we do. Well, when the president was arguing that the Federal Reserve was not as accommodative as the chinese and the European Central banks, he was essentially arguing that you know, its hampering my ability to fight with china. Its hampering my ability to get a good trade deal because of the impact on the economy that the higher rates are having. So ann may well be right that the president has seized this opportunity but also, the tweet that he puts out essentially accuses china of breaking its word, of lying about the fentanyl and about reneging on agreements that were already done but not yet settled in writing. So theres an element of anger here and a sense that hes been betrayed, too, if im reading his tweet correctly. Neil this actually came up prior to the debate last night, max, when Kamala Harris was saying this is why the fed did what it did, to kind of echo a point of anns. This is from last night. Jerome powell has just dropped the Interest Rates and he admitted why, because of this socalled trade policy that this president has that has been nothing more than the trump trade tax that has resulted in American Families spending as much as 1. 4 billion more a month on everything from shampoo to washing machines. Neil what do you think of that . In any other white house this would be a teachable moment. The president is telling me dont tell me what too do with trade policy and i will put a small 10 tariff. That will not feel small to farmers. Neil my last guest was raising more direct impact on consumers. This could be a little different, you know . Yeah. People have been saying this for month. Josh rogan in the washington post, point blank, dont trust china on fentanyl. Dont trust china to honor its promises. The problem is the president declares victory prematuritily. And finds out his negotiateth partner had no intention of keeping the promise. Neil gold is beneficiary of this as the dollar index falls south. You get a sense of the crisis of the might not be remotely justified. But that is the interpretation, money runs to gold, runs to bonds. They sort this stuff later. Kneejerk reaction, sell first, ask questions later. Is this an overreaction . I think well have to wait a too few days and see. I think the president is so serious about these trade negotiations. He really want a deal. He said again maybe the other day maybe china is waiting to see if i lose. Neil for some stiff. Thats right. I think there is something to that. I believed all along china would never give up the things that it really cares about easily. And it might take a reelection of President Trump to get it done. Neil this could also harden positions, right . You could go the other way, no one bends, no one blinks . What is interesting about this, spreading tariff impact to the Consumer Sector which has been Consumer Spending has been on fire. Now this nextwave of tariffs means going after apparel, textiles, consumer electronics, which had been insulated so far. It seems a sign that the president is digging in. Different from Kamala Harris. Neil im sorry. One other development here, in case you thought the markets might be rethinking the prospect of rate cuts, we told you they still think there is better than 60 chance we see a secondrate cut. All of a sudden the odds after third one went up to 54 . Dont ask. Charles payne, right now. Charles neil, thank you very, very much appreciate it. Good afternoon, im charles payne, this is making money. Breaking right now, everything is breaking. President trump announcing new tariffs for china. That took the steam completely out of amazing rally. Capitol hill is deserted after the senate pass as spending bill. Andy biggs is warning about the national debt. Buckle up and much more. Making money starts right now. Charles just moments ago President Trump says that he will impose additional 10 tariff on 300 billion of chinese import. Here is the president s tweet. During the talks