Worry of this spread and the durability of this group markets. The yield on the ten year hit record lows. With investors seeking the safety of u. S. Government debt. Now the immediate cause of the fear was sudden evidence to the disease taking hold now well outside of china. The number of cases in italy, iran, south korea vote significantly. Trent President Trump sought to calm fears but the u. S. Would also see an epidemic and insisted the country was well prepared to cope. Anointing Vice President pence to take charge of the response. But the head of dissenter for Disease Control said americans will not be immune to the spreading virus. Meanwhile, in politics in the democratic primary, senator Bernie Sanders has his lead ahead of the fields with the strong wind and nevada caucuses ahead of South Carolina primary and super tuesday next week. Now the rapid pace of all these events only underscores the unusual volatile of the challenges facing the country today. The economy continues to perform well, but new technologies are clearly upending the way we work and live. The rapid spread of the coronavirus remind us of the risk and opportunities of america that is tightly connected to the rest of the world. All this at a time of the country seems more divided than ever over its priorities in its direction. And the political stage is increasingly dominated by outsiders first President Trump four years ago and now it seems a democratic socialist who may be rising to lead the opposition. So whats going on . What are these new risks and challenges tells about the evolving state of america . By far the worlds most successful democracy. Earlier, to get a better sense of where this may be headed i talked to one of the countrys most imaginative forecasters. George freedman was founder and chairman of futures and online publication that interprets and analyzes major global trends. He is also the author of a new book, the storm before the calm, americas discord becoming crisis of the 2020s, and the triumph beyond. The new book, its a fascinating account of what you see as a convergence of longterm cycles, longterm trends in the United States since its founding. Can you just give us a little bit of an explanation of that . Of 80 years the United States is a shift in its institutional structure. We are at the point where we are going to do another shift. Gerry so 185060 civil war world war ii,. World war ii we invented the government of experts technology. And weve done very well until we havent. Because experts know Little Things they dont know the whole thing. But weve lost the right to petition the government petitioning the government is fundamental to our constitution and the constitution. When you go to talk to the federal government at this point, there is no one to talk to. In those you talk to have no authority into anyway. You cannot petition a member of congress. Gerry you think that systems broken down . Its broken down in so many ways even the complex system they dont understand. And the individual when they need something that is not anticipated in the regulations there is no common sense. So where American Government after world war ii was operated on common sense and informality it has become rigid and inflexible and unsustainable. On the other side you have the social crisis with happens every 50 years, the reagan era was enormously successful and produced a massive amounts of money. We are now in a period of time where theres few things too invested in the price of money has collapsed so that retirement becomes impossible, savings become meaningless. Gerry to the 80 year institutional cycle in the 50 year social cycle is converging the 2020s. What happens . I think its easier because we cant solve this social problem without changing the way the institutions work. And we cant change the institutions unless we make a transformation in the social cycle. So we are at a time, and i dont want to overstate, we will not be rethinking his americans dont rethink things. What we are doing is under tremendous stress and making significant changes. And during times like this one of the things that happens is our politics go wacky. We have donald trump what more can we say. Gerry that we have Bernie Sanders a socialist. This is a time of the normal process of american politics breaks down and we have a series of incredibly intense and unpleasant elections and behaviors. And that will go on. Gerry what goes on that this goes on for the next two years how do we get beyond that . Is this something that happens organically or do we need to make changes to both our institutions of the way our economy works to get through this and get to the next phase . We are going to have to have political pressure to change the way the government interfaces with the public. And the way in which we create legislation. We dont know that legislation has been created. Gerry Technology Gives us the opportunity for us to do that. Oh talking my things like direct democracy work everyone by hitting a button could make laws every day . Not a doll im speaking of Representative Government where there is representative on the other side who has some authority. The basic fact is an ordinary citizen cannot find anyone who has the right to exercise common sense. That is an amazing revolution really and that will change. Gerry how does that change what is the calm after this storm of 2020 . One thing that has to go is primaries and most people dont pay any attention we wind up in a very strange choices. We used to have party bosses. And they gave us eisenhower, roosevelts, extraordinarily good candidates. Then we have the party system and some were okay and some were not. What we have to go back to is the system the government of the United States had for 30 years which was that the parties were not party of the government. They along to the owners. Gerry this is the left democracy in the party bosses candidates came from smokefilled rooms with largely men who decided who the person was gonna be in your now singer to go back to a less than them democratic approach customer. Its not democratic is a tiny fraction of people cared to choose the job. Like the internet where the idea was we are going to have thoughtful discussion between reasonable people. It turned into chaos. The primaries really did that as well. They turned into a minority of people governing with no recourse. Gerry georgia want to come back and talk about more of the issues you raise your book and more generally the geopolitical trends were facing in the world at the moment. But stay with us, will be back but stay with us, will be back in a can we go get some ice cream . Alright, we gotta stop here first. From smarter atms, to after hours video tellers comcast business is connecting thousands of banks to technology that turns everyday transactions into extraordinary experiences. Hi there. How are you . Do you have any lollipops in there . laughing no, sorry. Were helping all kinds of businesses go beyond customer expectations. How can we help you . Well keep building smarter suvs. To help keep you focused on the road ahead. And. The road beside. Did we mention the road ahead. With an available best in class. Epa estimated combined fuel economy and the technology to practically park itself. This is the reimagined 2020 ford escape. And the technology to practically park itself. Apps except work. Rywhere. Why is that . Is it because people love filling out forms . Maybe they like checking with their supervisor to see how much Vacation Time they have. Or sending corporate their expense reports. Ill let you in on a little secret. They dont. By empowering employees to manage their own tasks, paycom frees you to focus on the business of business. To learn more, visit paycom. Com i appreciate what makes each person unique. Thats why i like liberty mutual. They get that no two people are alike and customize your Car Insurance so you only pay for what you need. Almost done. What do you think . I dont see it. Only pay for what you need. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Gerry i am back with the founder of political futures george friedman. The 21st century has not so far at least worked out particularly well for the United States theres a paradox there because we ended the 20th century, the 1990s with america the single global power. The soviet union had been defeated, people talked about a unipolar world unites it seem to dominate all. Since 2000 weve had terrorism, disappointing wars in iraq and afghanistan, we had a financial crisis weve had withdrawal. It is not been a great 20 years. Whats gone wrong . In 1991 for the first time in five years there was a single european global power theres only one global power, the United States. It was the first country the staged a revolution against imperialism, but there was. It did not have the institution managing and it did not manage it. Had a world war ii model. They attacked us, we are going to hit them with everything we have. So there is no settled a anything. We have learned a great deal. Barack obama and donald trump, although they would not admit it had a similar view and reduce the amounts of action to take increase the amount of action we take. Gerry is that wrong customer. I think its quite right. Its selfevidently expect 18 year losing wars so ending was probably a good idea. Also, the key thing is the United States is a large economic world power, and more important the largest importer. That power that imports really allows us to dictate other countries what is the price of getting access to denied states. And this we have seen in the confrontation with china over trade. Gerry do you think President Trump is a having the approach right customer. I think its right its same approach a bottle is taking, he was moving in that direction. So despite that of the different ideologies, beliefs, personalities, history compels the United States a certain direction. Gerry lets talk about china you just raise it there. That is obviously the emerging great power and many peoples views, secondlargest economy in the world people many people think will overtake the United States the next hit ten, 15, 20 years. Growing military and political power. Going to real crisis right now on multiple levels. Challenges to its own rule, like hong kong, chinas Economic GrowthUnited States, and of course most recently this coronavirus. Give us your sense, your longterm observing of whats going on there. So china elses economy on exports. Since 2008 the world is been an export crisis. The exporters are scrambling for markets. Chinas Financial System resembles it. We can take a look at japan, the way it collapsed in 1980s. You see a model there. The important thing to understand is the key thing she was it elected do is control the country. You dont need a dictator if youre in good shape. And his biggest job was to manage the president of the United States who could not be managed by anyone. On this person understood that the United States we ask for less than half of a percent gdp they have over 4 and would stop that. They were in trouble. The problem with the virus is, we dont know what it does. It was so badly mishandled by president xi jinping let a combination of secrecy and incompetence, now the question is does he survive . The idea theyre going to bypass the United States with their Economic Growth. Their Growth Numbers are collapsing and i dont believe them anyway. The china release their gdp numbers. Gerry with this really question residents shes position . Lets take a look hong kong, the South China Sea made no progress whatsoever. Confrontation with the United States, many things going wrong in the Financial System that is deeply troubled. And now this. I thought before this happened come inside the Central Committee there moves being made, raising the question does president xi jinping really know what hes doing . I think this is going to push it over the edge. Gerry what could follow him could be worse in terms of authoritarianism. You have a sense . Thereto of china one model is the emperors powerful the countries united in the other was in place a hundred years was chinas fragmented. Its interesting to me they brought in the head of the Shanghai Party because shanghai has been fighting with beijing quietly a great deal. So there is a regionalism in china that is frequently ignored. Gerry let me stop you there got to get a quick i work hard and i want my money to work hard too. So i use my freedom unlimited card. Even when im spending, im earning 1. 5 cash back on everything i buy. Earning on my favorite soup. Got it. Earning on that eclair. Dont touch it. Dont touch it yet. Let me get the big one. Nope. This one . Nope. This one . No. Let me get them all. Im gonna get them all. Its just the basics. Can you double bag this right here . Earn 1. 5 cash back on everything you buy with freedom unlimited. Can you also tell me what it is . Chase. Make more of whats yours. Its more than just fast. It keeps all your devices running smoothly. With builtin security that protects your kids. No matter what theyre up to. It protects your info. And gives you 24 7 peace of mind. That if its connected, its protected. Even that that petcamera thingy. [ whines ] can your internet do that . Xfinity xfi can because its. Simple, easy, awesome. [ barking ] thats it. Im calling kohler about their walkin bath. [ sigh ] not gonna happen. My name is ken. How may i help you . Hi, im calling about kohlers walkin bath. Excellent happy to help. Huh . Hold one moment please. [ finger snaps ] hmm. The kohler walkin bath features an extrawide opening and a low stepin at three inches, which is 25 to 60 lower than some leading competitors. The bath fills and drains quickly, while the heated seat soothes your back, neck and shoulders. Kohler is an expert in bathing, so you can count on a deep soaking experience. Are you seeing this . The kohler walkin bath comes with fully adjustable hydrotherapy jets and our exclusive bubblemassag. Everything is installed in as little as a day by a kohlercertified installe. And its made by kohler americas leading plumbing brand. We need this bath. Yes. Yes you do. A kohler walkin bath provides independence with peace of mind. Gerry i am back with george friedman. George is directly United States, that the president ial election coming up in a matter of months. We still dont know who the democratic nominee is going to be. It looks increasingly like or we could have Bernie Sanders. The next president ial election this year it be to political outsiders. Donald trump from four years ago he wasnt given a hope by many people the republican side. A nationalist, and economic nationalist very much against the grain of the Republican Party for the last 20 or 30 years. On the democratic side we could have a selfdeclared socialist very much different than the Democratic Party. What is that tell us about american 2020 . During the crisis, the outsiders come in. So its not as if weve had a highly successful corps of politicians who we can turn to. We have very questionable ones. That part of the public like him precisely because he was an outsider. And then turning sanders i love to win or not, but theyre turning to sanders for the same reason. The Democratic Party is moving away from anything weve seen before. Thats what you expect to see this political cycle. This is the preface. Out of the preface will come the real struggle, who are we, what do we want, and just as Ronald Reagan and Franklin Roosevelt emerged at these times, someone will emerge. In the meantime, we got warren g harding, and richard nixon. [laughter] x the way it works. Gerry there does seem to be a fair amount of pushback by the establishment for both of these on the republican and democratic side. I dont know what we can type do deep state in washington. Are they being a clips now . Are we really into a. Riordan political competition between two people with a radically different views on how the government should be run for those who have run it for so long. Americas ruthless in the establishment has not been succeeding. They havent had that much accountability. There looking at the behavior of the meter of donald trump or they are horrified the extremism of the senators. They dont forget is they didnt succeed. What youre seeing here is a natural process is bloodied and nasty as is, they are dealing with the establishment. There is no establishment. They think there is an establishment, biting for the New York Times there must be an establishment, but the countries not listening. Gerry is it possible to see commonalities between aiken we dont know hes going to get the nominee he can still be beaten. But between Bernie Sanders and donald trump. As different as they are in terms of the way the economy should be run, is it possible to see the forces that are driving them in common terms . They both promised not to be the way it was before. What they have in common is not any real vision of what should come, but a real sense that what came before is over. Until this is the transition points common in this transition point you will see politics that will convince people the republic has collapsed. Gerry and the minute or so we have remitting back to the theme of your book come the storm we are going through in the calm, what do we get to the end of this process . What we get after truck, sanders, or whatever comes after that, what does america look like and tenure time . The problems are dealing is this. The middle class earns 35000 a year. Thats a lower rental class we have house in a car, thats impossible for the vast numbers of the white industrial class are being thrown out. There is a term mendez struggle with the universities everything else. This class, that has to be handled. The place is at the university and you see that battle he be getting. Gerry at the moment its being won by the woefully politically correct crowd you think theyll change question work. And how soon it will. These people know that to get access to the elites, they have to get to the university. The university is financed by 16 trillion in government loans. When those loans stop, the ability to work six hours a week will go away. And when that goes away, university is going to be forced to reconsider itself. That process is going on right now. Gerry the book is the storm before the calm. Up next, my thoughts on american. Civilians in the face of global and domestic fun fact 1 in 4 of us millennials have debt we might die with. And most of that debt is actually from credit cards. Its just not right. But with sofi, you can get your credit cards right by consolidating your Credit Card Debt into one monthly payment. Including your Interest Rate right by locking in a fixed low rate today. And you can get your money right with sofi. Check your rate in two minutes or less. Get a nofee personal loan up to 100k. Get a nofee personal loan tits great actually, ive been listening to audible. Its audiobooks, news, meditations. Gotta go hey you know, i do think its weird youve started commuting when you work from home. Ill be in my office. Download audible and start every day off right. I am totally blind. And non24 can throw my days and nights out of sync, keeping me from the things i love to do. Talk to your doctor, and call 8442142424. Hi susan honey . Yeah . I respect that. But that cough looks pretty bad. Try this robitussin honey. The real honey you love. Plus the powerful cough relief you need. Mind if i root through your trash . Robitussin honey. Because its never just a cough. Gerry these are undoubtedly unsettling times, pandemics, market panics, rising global tensions that propel us to turn inward as a nation. But home, loss of faith in traditional politics and institutions and a makes enemies fellow americans. This all leads us to want to try something new and different. Nationalism perhaps, socialism, anything not associated with conditions that created the certain uncertainty. But america we should not forget is uniquely blessed with robust institutions built to withstand the rising positions. And the creativity to develop solutions and technology, healthcare, finance, education, and yes indeed, governments. That paved the way for a better future. And worrying as things may be, we can take comfort the country has survived much worse. It should also be noted that despite the challenges by most measures, these are still among the best of times in this countries a short history. With that, thats it for this week, for though it is show updates be sure to follow me on twitter, facebook an instagram, i will be back next week with an indepth look at the super tuesday primary results right here on the wall street journal at large. Street journal at large. Thank you so much for. Dr. Youssef there is a way that seems right to man, but in the end it will lead to death. If you want to live, read, believe, and obey gods word. But if you want death, though you might be living, then ignore it. If you want life and life abundant,