Going on right now in the reuss concerned by the attempt to explain to the internal challenges facing bella bruce to interfere in the from of rule. Of the headline 10 are to international ill be back in about an hours time stay with us. Hello and welcome to crossfire all things considered. It appears a new cold war is in play this time which against china what are the terms or. What does it mean to win this conflict and is all out war possible how did the u. S. And its alliance. Find themselves in this situation. To cross up this and more im joined by my guest when he came in london she is a policy analyst and senior lecturer in Chinese International political economy and in washington we cross to you and he is a senior fellow at the independent institute ok im going to go to you 1st in washington i mean if you look at the Mainstream Media as it was russia gate seems to wind down the banks have come out for china and some of the groups some really very very harsh editorials are being written there in the Washington PostNew York Times and they Canadian Press and even in the British Press here is this a new cold war and if it is how is it different on the up with from the one that was against the soviet union go ahead and wash. Well i think its a bit its a bit of a stage and say its a cold war yet i mean i think this is all actually nearing frankly end but you know Foreign Countries sort of been historically have realized and though of president ial Election Years especially candidates you know attack Foreign Countries. And try to stir things up. Especially if theyre in trouble in other ways and i think our current president having difficulty with his response to the virus and also the economy the economic ramifications of course which other countries are also experiencing but in our country. You know of course especially chop his the real action really depends on the economy going well since hes a minority president that has to get a majority the 1st time so i think youre seeing a lot of election here and that things may die down you know as. After the election season either kill him lose the election and somebody else will command by our will be reelected. To get some sort of agreement with chinese perhaps its hard to say what will happen but certainly this there is rising tensions and hes also attacking the w. H. O. As a child as have the trying to use have too much influence and when its an International Organization its certainly theres a lot of questions that could be asked by the way challenge response but. Legitimate questions but i think that was probably not the time to do it and now we saw it. Yesterday where they the countries china russia. The European Countries sided against the u. S. And its tomato into the organizations of the day. Is trying to attack that as well to attack china but its offer electoral purposes really you know when he did in it seems to me that a quite a bit of this is it is deflecting away from globalization because what we have seen for the last 35 years is elites in the west the embracing globalization chinas certainly has benefited from it enormously how many tens hundreds of millions have been people of new people been pulled out of poverty i mean its one of the most extraordinary stories and history here but you know they talked about all the great things of globalization and if you were against that then you were somehow an isolationist or Something Like that and and now they may use the they change the narrative being against china its all chinas well i mean as an american i know how fragile the apparent in medical system is because its driven by profits its not driven by taking care of people so thats one thing is but i mean to kind of reply to what i can said there you see this is basically its origins being in domestic politics because it is its. The victory always pretty strong i mean i havent seen a lot of things like Something Like this for a very long time and we have to keep in mind we went through 3 and a half years would be useless russia gay folks go ahead in law. So a lot of the kind of vitriol that were seeing is i agree that it is new with regards to china has never been this strong but. From what i know of american politics americans love having a bad guy. And so we had the u. S. S. R. In the eightys we had japan we had axis of evil in the middle east in iraq and afghanistan after that china is a perfect example of this right now because if were going around the idea of globalization the whole point of globalization right now is that globalization under American Mission was another deal that was system that was established and led american led institutions multilateral institutions i. M. F. World bank b. T. O. W. H. O. If were talking about the problem we have right now is the globalization were experiencing is that its not an american only dominated american men and anymore its not that the chinese economy has done so it so basseley well over the last few decades the fact that the chinese were imperative in their part whereas the imperative in the part of their participation after the 2000 equal financial crisis and as a means of bailing out not just individual economies but the euro the euro area as well raises a lot of concerns as to this this i known factor and what it means for where we are going and so when it comes to a lot of the things that the chinese are doing because it is not under u. S. Direction or influence and you also have the fact that a lot of traditional American Allies like the big 3 in the year in the euro the euro zone or the british are not following the lead we as americans this creates a lot of problems and a lot of concerns within the american. Electorate as well as in particular the american elite you know its really interesting and really you were very gentle and diplomatic in your language i would i dont know that ill say but i think that yeah american hegemony is being threatened and thats what its really all about and its really quite interesting and now im good at it. From you because i wrote i read your article that was in the american conservative screen you have on the one hand an illustration this telling its a. Treaty allies you know you have to start paying for your own defense you know if you know particularly in a big area where you america now actually elyse should cough up more money and but then at the same time they there seems to be. This huge pivot to go to to asia here i mean it is very contradictory and winning is absolutely right a lot of American Allies are not only in step and so this is great even more frustration for a political eastley United States go ahead in washington. Yeah i think thats true and basically as i just the president we have other senators that are saying well we need more submarines we need more jet fighters in the fight in the east asia sattar and so theyre taking advantage of the code crisis to demonize china and of course. You know there was already pointed out that the u. S. Does like to have a hand in you know i would only agree with that statement i think the iranians dont realize that because theres an article today the New York Times that saying you know your odds are pretty astute theyre trying to you know call things down in the tensions between the u. S. And iran because they know it is an Election Year and i think historically you know social Science Research indicates that countries do this because specially with the United States because they know things get heated up in the election but certainly always saying is that republicans are trying to damage in this particular case of a crisis we had obama in a dumb ass. Crisis well with the Great Recession his chief of staff said never a lot of crisis got away so what they did back then was to take advantage of the economic crisis to get an fairly unrelated saying help that you know obama care bush did it with 911 going after iraq this time if. We have this code 19 and it started in china so therefore the chinese the response of all. Are we blew our response to it and certainly there the chinese are not scot free here but certainly whats happening is there are exaggerating the demonization china to build up militarily spend a lot of money and it is partly i would say the military Industrial Complex and the chinese hawks are you know taking advantage of the crisis oh yeah well you know me you know the military Industrial Complex loves welfare we all know that ok but you know when. You know. It when its correct to do to point out obamas response to the 2008 financial crisis here now were talking about more submarines more jets more aircraft i mean its a very very different here and the thing is here is that one and i am a realist i dont i dont understand why china is the night to be able to pursue its own defined defense interests and this is one of the american elites never do they always define what everyones interests are and they expect them to follow it and countries like russia china iran say no we have a different definition of our sovereignty and we go to their eventually like this and you used the word sovereignty a lot and this is this misalignment and because its about the military and well talk about a couple legal a 2nd half of the program if its supremely important and we have to be very careful of errors go ahead absolutely i think your point saying in terms of the americans feel that they traditionally have been image in. Position to be able to dictate or at least. Lead or convince governments which way that they should be focusing their military targets in their military prowess is quite significant in a key part and that is because for china and actually for most governments the military is more than just power the military is also very symbolic as a lot of it has a lot of deterrence value and. Since the 1990 s. Is not just americans but americans have led the way since the 1990 s. The whole idea of chinese containment which is really expanding now. Has it has been their idea of china ideologically speaking has been a challenge because it continues to be a holdover from the you know the era of the red scare in iraq and and so it becomes a matter of how can you how can you allow the worlds most populous country now the worlds 2nd largest economy to grow on income birds and ultimately focus on its own decision to have a military like almost all governments in the world do unless youre like a government like egypt and where you have historically youre in in a position where you cant ok so for the chinese idea that you want to build your own military is a position of you know what historically we have this history of imperial powers coming in dictating to us what we can and cannot do we want to have a military well have a military weve told our citizens the whole aim is to have a secure and. Strong nation. I think we have to throw in we have to understand you mentioned but i think we need to stress it is that china is experiencing a form of western containment directed by the United States i mean you have a military base the surrounding the country here i mean its the if i. I think its called the South China Sea for a reason because its next to china ok as well it is trying to the chinese is far as i know dont have a leak in the caribbean or of you know california and i think that this is something that a lot of western audiences and coders they dont understand that ok because if you have a huge the largest the most powerful military power in the history of the world right off your coat telling you where you can go where you can go that does seem threatening and i think thats legitimate i want to jump in here were going to go to a short break and after that to a break well continue our discussion of the new cold war its just. The world is driven by shaped by. The day or thinks. We dare to ask. Has changed american lives but pharmaceutical companies have a miraculous solution. Based drugs talk to people who are chronic pain patients and believe that their prescription is working for them in the remedy he said to to the price at the. Close of dependency and addiction to opiates to long term use that really isnt scientifically justified and ill study. It suggests that. The long term effects might not just be absence of benefit but actually that they may because of the long term. Well about across time were all things are considered im trying to were discussing the cold war against china. Lets go back to london when he went to finish up one before we went to the break right and so i think the whole point of the chinese containment that i mentioned earlier and which you also talked about as also was reiterated by obamas 2008 where we then saw the expansion of military bases not just linked to the immediate region around china but also into guam the philippines as well as australia so there is a specific message that the americans are sending to the Chinese Military the military industry and the need to protect themselves so it is not actually not surprising that the chinese are reacting in a way they are. Lets go back to washington i mean given everything weve said in the program here and its focus a little bit more on the military will and probably want to do and i will switch gears and talk about the economy so we have these we have just saudi arabia cyber rattling going on here but you have an enormous amount of codependency here and this move to decouple which you know i mean when it comes to antibiotics and ventilators i think thats right ok yeah i mean i think any large country should be prepared to protect their population because people tend to forget endemic sperm and go its part of our Human History ok and just that in this case we try to. Corral all the healthy at the expense of the of the people that are ill usually was the other way around you quarantined your people now its. The general population 1 so i think its perfectly reasonable for every country to be prepared in a medical sense but it goes far more than that ive been because over the last 30 years they say china still john johnny didnt steal one job it was the american corporate elites that sent their jobs over there and now we have this quandary can the u. S. And china even decouple who they wanted to. Well i think its very difficult and i am not saying that that should happen i mean i think wiki. When stuff probably not going to happen is we have both parties in the United States are fairly protectionist now the republicans used to be a little bit more free trade up in the past but you know people are very i think the 2000 a recession really caused people to to that to clip and now people are concerned about their jobs going overseas and of course its easy just doing what were talking about earlier. Saying that evil is a foreign government. And when it was a free market decision many of those jobs are some of them are going from china to. Some of the poor countries as china develops you know we have a proud noble lifecycle theory where you know china and the United States should probably let some of those jobs go on produce more highly technological things and you know thats the nature in and bring out that would bring out the developing world as well so im not sure that globalization is a bad thing now the problem is some people lose their jobs and some people dump some people profit enormously from it and i think thats where the political problem comes in all these countries not just the u. S. But other countries as well particularly in the u. S. And i think. And even the democratic candidate Hillary Clinton last time she kind of flipped she was a free trader before and she fled to the protectionist position but i think it was the previous recession now of course were having an even bigger recession so i dont end anticipate that who is asia is going to be a more popular probably the last popular but of course globalization has made brought many countries. Good in china and its not just an advantage in china a dent in it damage the United States well now are some of these countries going to have to make sure take some measures to to take the rough edges up that maybe but of course steve that has cost so but ab to your point i think its going to get worse and we do know we are in or china is china and thats a good thing and here is the reason for that. Graham allison wrote a book where he catalogued the 16 they got instances sensed in the 1500 a rising power and dominic our abilities draco went into contact conflict and only for those cases was peace and she there was a hot war and in the other 12 cases were just bad however the last 2 cases the soviet union versus us they hadnt yet Nuclear Weapons and with the british and the us which was a Successful Transition from the rising to the to the dominant power you had a deep trade relationship and you had a big ocean well with china we have all 3 of those they have Nuclear Weapons we have Nuclear Weapons we have a big interconnected economically and we have an even bigger so you know if youre a realist theres some hope that this might be worked out of course the u. S. Behavior as it has been pointed out is not in that direction but as you know as china rises and the u. S. Hopefully will realize that. You know theres room to let china have a sphere in clusters run dont russia have a spirit employes and i think when the u. S. Does that maybe well have you know the big powers each completes the region of the world of course we have been influenced and one technique of the empire u. S. Empire is we say oh well spheres of influence and so yesterday but of course thats still how the world works. Underneath it all all underneath all the you know b. S. Of that and thats just a way of saying well well determine what your severe mental and we dont think it should be that much in europe with russia in east asia and china but it is the real us would take over then we would have we would say well you know this is work in the past when we had these constraints against one power you know when a hot war we have it we do i think we there are several factors that you can be optimistic that maybe you wont have a hot war because if we have a hot war it better stay limited or its going to be a really nasty just like it was in the cold war you know we needed the printing of what was just said this and some absolutely correct because it really at the end of all the fundamentals are there for a coming to terms it seriously but theres one little wrinkle this stopping all of it its called american exceptionalism they can in american exceptionalism can not deem china as a equal here its not part of the of the ideological construct ok that is the biggest problem a lot of people are having because really gemini it is unlimited its everything thats what we used to work ok its all right and you cant have this limited gemini it doesnt work that way and also i would point out and im going to go out of a limb here is also were seeing for the 1st time in 500 years a non youre in european or european extension our come as being the head trauma and this is something that the western world doesnt think that cant comprehend ok i mean its a form of orientalism when it comes from the west ok and i think theres a fear factor there i mean looking at some of the editorials that i read this morning there certainly is a civilizational element to it go ahead. So i would agree with you the fact. Americans cannot agree that china has equal power. And authority who appear and he part behind that is because if you see it as equal it means is equal in clout in dominance in leadership in influence and in prowess as well as in threats ok there is also is a fundamental thing that theres a gap in terms of the american knowledge is a fact that they dont actually know what china wants in order for you to have a hot war china has to want to go to war china doesnt want to go to war. Ok for china if you want to with were focusing on the issues of globalization or the cost that will come if we stop globalization is the key things that will happen is that you will have decline of influence and dominance of multilateral institutions that were let in established by the by the western powers and well you will then see is that the chinese similar to what people are talking about with regard to w. H. O. Is youre saying well you either w. H. Will fall in line with us or you fall in line with china which one do you want right in china is willing to say listen were willing to stay with us globalized globalization light and say lets Work Together and find some way china said its willing to be open to investigation we just dont want to investigate investigation is led by the americans which i can see theres a certain legitimacy to this is a clear ideological part is an element to that i think the key point behind it is that when were talking about whether or not theres a cold war between china and the u. S. The key i think what we need to recognize is that yes there is its just not the same or in the same way that we would see it happening with the u. S. S. R. The u. S. S. R. Was about ideology and it was a hard power over who might be a lesson right from the u. S. From the from the chinese perspective when it comes to we when we saw in the 1980 s. The kind of trade war that was happening between the americans and the japanese as they saw the japanese rise as a potential hedge of mine in the International System the trade war basically was a way to eliminate that what we see additionally happening after the trade war between a waitress came to power is the Movement Towards a tech war. And what we saw immediately after that was went to saying listen always 80 you cannot engage with us what did they do they said thats ok you know why because we already have our operating system yeah i mean knows its coming as not stupid so its a matter of trying to can anticipate because america quite similar to what i was saying is it has a playbook and has never really deviated from it but we dont know what chinas going to do because chinas never been in this position before so its preparing for all eventually so well talk about the idea of a cold war it is there it just is not in the traditional way that we would expect when it came to the u. S. S. R. I mean you know one of the things during it we sense very looking at the comparison to the the what we call the cold war to the 2nd world war one of the things that happened it was a good thing is that you had western policymakers and politicians they had a habit of trying to put themselves in the other guys shoes that seems that process seems to have disappeared is you know asking you know what do they want and how can we how can we come to terms of them keeping our values and our interests at the forefront but still being able to listen to the other our interlocutor that doesnt happen right now at least maybe its because of the the anxiety that this pandemic and the economic turndown has created but you know that doesnt seem to be a lot of cooler heads in trying to understand whats going on here yeah that there are there are differences big differences and there is competition but as you pointed out Graham Allison talked about how you can avoid that last 30 seconds go to you. Yeah i would say that thats true i think in the ninetys with the unit polar moment as it was as it was call the u. S. Got a little too you know high on the horse there are so to speak in its in its version of the world we were now dominant in want to tell people what to do before there was always a constraint on the soviet union being there and then it went away and. This occurred during the british in the 800 s. When the british and the us the british were originally very arrogant and gradually they came to see that these factors take all and i think that harm hoping that will happen to us leadership 2 and a half things like are you going to say when other countries are going out of down there would run out of money when it make my guess in london and in washington i want to make our viewers there watching as the r. C. C. In exile remember. Join me every thursday on the alex salmond show and ill be speaking to guest of the world of politics sports business im showbusiness ill see you then. The world is driven by dream shaped by one person of those. Who dares thinks. We dare to ask. All paul. Says to. Be sure but old just look. At this commercial moment last chance and ask for the last 70 and seeing him down the rest of the dutch promotion commission. Branch in just shoot on disc in the. Command among the. Legion mom was