Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20150204

170plus billion dollar company. Thats a huge move. It is and its incredible those earnings still could blow it out. A lot to do with frozen. We talked about it yesterday but the reaction initially was not as strong as what weve seen throughout the session. Its held up well throughout a volatile session. Speaking of volatility, look no further than oil. Remember the big rally weve been talking about and the price of oil, it has reversed itself. Its now given back all of the gains that we saw the last two days. The price of oil settling down more than 8 today. For a period of time it was down 10 just off the lows. Well talk more about that coming up. More market moving earnings also due out in an hour. We have 21st century fox today, Keurig Green Mountain under armour yum brands. Dont miss a moment of it. Were waiting for the big unemployment number on friday. Right now it stands at 5. 6 and the Unemployment Rate is a big lie. Thats not me saying that. That would be the ceo of gallup of all people and he will be here to back that controversial claim up a little later on the show. Here is where we stand in markets. Its not really about the dow today. Its about the s p. That index actually negative as you can see there by about a quarter of 1 . A lot has to do with the really shocking move in oil just as everyone was talking about the 10 bounce over the last couple sessions. Today we are giving that back and a lot of questions for investors here as to what to do next. Lets talk about it. A lot to get to in our closing bell exchange. We have tom essay from sevens report, jack bouroudjian, a cnbc contributor, Kimberly Foss is back from imperian Wealth Management management. Tom, are we putting in a bout tom at this point in the price of oil . No i dont think so. I think what were seeing is your prototypical Short Covering rally. What got us to turn around was a big drop in the rig count and that carried over monday when we got some earnings that said there were all these slashing of cap ex budgets. Neither one of those things are going to materially reduce production in the u. S. In shale in the near term. Until that happens, i dont think were at a bottom in oil. I still think well see it trade with a three handle in the 30 range. What does that mean for the market, jack . You know i think whenever youre talking about Lower Oil Prices Lower Energy Prices, youve got to be a bull. The bottom line is that whenever you see that happen the market reacts favorably. Dont take my word for it. Look at history, and history has taught us that. If that is the right analysis and i do think that at least at the very minimum well test the bottoms one more time. If that is the case chances are well be there for quite a while. Even if we see 5 and 10 snapbacks, this era of low energy will be so beneficial for stocks for the next six to eight months, i think we are going to be surprised. Kim, weve got the volatility we have to deal with. If oil is going to keep doing this, the stock market is going to keep showing this kind of volatility, what are you to do then for your clients as you invest their money . You know i think volatility is here to stay. With the geopolitical uncertainties, oil issues volatility is here. So what im covinge coaching my clients to do is control things we can control which is really the allocation of your portfolio. How much do you have to stocks how much to bonds. Diversification obviously. Globally diversified portfolios and microrebalance your portfolios back to ips levels. You need to rebalance back to that allocation. You need to be in these markets in the long term and that volatility pretty much is going to say here probably for the short term and probably for the long term but thats where the 1 percenters make the money in the market. They stay in through the peaks and valleys. Against this backdrop do you see Interest Rates starting speaking of bottoms, to form one and maybe the next move is higher or what . Well i think the last six trading days are going to answer that question. Today we moved right up to that 1. 85 level in 10s, 1. 86 is hugely significant. It was the intraday low from that crazy october 15th where we settled 28 basis points higher. At this point it looks like were snubbing up against yield resistance but all bets are off should we settle above 1. 86 . It looks to me as though were going through a digestive process whether its in the Foreign Exchange market think the euro. Digestion in the yen pretty much all year after its crazy weakness in 2014 and i think when it comes to oil, yesterday i talked about 51. 27. You need to pick something to gps. That would have been a momentum play if it closed above it. Of course, it didnt. Thats why we pick out areas to put your sell stop losses in. I agree with pretty much every guest, we are definitely bottoming in crude. It is just going to be a rounding process that takes time. Rick, if we get a strong jobs report on friday could that be an impetus to see those yields rise back above those october lows do you think . Oh absolutely. While the market is in this process, anything that pushes yields up, even if its some kind of shock like a strong number just like oil, it becomes a logistics game not necessarily fundamentals, but who needs to get in who needs to get out, and how big is the port hole for everybody to fit through. Jack the other thing happening today are some headlines going back and forth about about germany and greece and can you tell us how that might move the market for the next month or so . I think the geopolitical issues are affecting the market. You see them every day but the reality is that europe is not as big a factor as people really think it is. You know unless it free falls or we see a complete breakup of the eurozone. What we find here is that the u. S. Economy is the engine that is leading the way. The rest of the world seems to be following that path. And would you rule that out, jack, a breakup of the eurozone . You know what . I would, and you just mentioned germany. Germany knows that failure is not an option. That they are stronger much stronger, with a unionfied europe. If greece were to leave, i dont think its the end of the euro zone. If germany starts to talk about leaving, then we have some serious issues. Rick is assuming were putting in a bottom here a rounding bottom in the price of oil. I want to come back to you again on this. Plenty of guys are coming through saying maybe theyre going to start nibbling on some of the oil stocks. Maybe its time to start thinking about these guys. Are you at this point even though you still could see us go down another 10 on oil . See, i think thats a smart play. Tom . This is for tom essaye. Im sorry, rick. No, im not. Im being cautious. I think that the xle, which is the broad based energy etf, is trading better but until i think we have a bottom in crude, and, again, i think we could trade in that 30 range before this is all said and done, im staying away. Again, ill have people refer back to natural gas, whats happened over the past several years in natural gas. Rig count declined 60 , production went up 20 over the same period. I dont think the bottom is in. Kimberly are you guys buying in the energy space . Thats in our large value portfolio. Energy sector were buying in that as well as the Financial Sector as well. But here is the point, with respect to jacks comment, you know the economy of the United States, we are the engine of the world, and here is the thing. Were c plus in the World Economy but everybody else is a d and an f and guess whats happening . All that geopolitical issue, all that oil is all coming to the United States. Its going to push our markets higher whether we like it or not. I think this market is going to go higher and investors need to be prepared so that they can be in that market take profits, and then also make sure that when Interest Rates do rise they are prepared for that in their portfolios and stay in the markets in the long term. Rick what were you going to say on oil . I disagree with one aspect. I think a lot of whats going on with oil the last 10 or 15 below 55 was logistics. How the trade pans out with respect to margin and leverage. I think that process is left to be worked out. I would go with the true side of the business as being a buy and look for the commodities to play catchup. Could you discount the idea that we could go into the 30 area . I personally would, yes. What about toms point as well, rick that its more likely we still see production continuing to increase here keeping downward pressure on prices . I do think we have a supply demand mismatch no doubt about it but i think that was many dollars above us. I really think whats going on here is after trading commodities for a good chunk of my life they get beyond fum fundamental rationality, somewhat like stocks have the last couple years. I wonder if theres an oil vix. That sounds like something to buy as weve seen things move around. Something to ask jackie a little later. Yes. Thanks, everybody. Good to see you this hour. We have 50 minutes to go into the close and the dow is up 60 but as mentioned, a couple big names contributing to that. Disney visa, the s p two points lower, the nasdaq trying to stay positive. Coming up make or break time for 21st century fox, yum brands Keurig Green Mountain under armour they are all posting earnings. I dont know how youre going to get to all of those guys all tame. With i aa lot of help. The market responds the analysis, its all coming from our team of pros. Also Jeremy Siegel speaking with us exclusively. He accurately called dow 18,000. And airlines have been surging again today, no surprise to our next guest. She just upgraded delta and United Continental and shell tell us why coming up after this break. Stay tuned. Analysis, its all coming from break. Modest gain for the dow today with a gain of 52 points and much of that as we pointed out, is disney because of the blowout earns last night. That stock has been up about 7 or 8 . S p lower today. If we look at the ten sectors that make up the s p 500 index, you see discretionary Consumer Discretionary is the leader followed by technology. The laggard, one day they love energy and the next day they hate it. The price of oil fell by more than 8 in todays trade. That sector off 1. 6 . Theres an oil vix. Its ovx. Dominic chu is keeping an eye on all of todays movers for us. Lets start off here with whats happening with apple shares which did hit an alltime high in trading today. The stock is up about 65 over the course of the past 12 months. You can see up by 1. 25 today. So a nice green day for them. A tough day for ralph lauren. They reported weaker than expected Third Quarter results and trimmed its full year 2015 revenue forecast but it did raise quarterly dividend. On balance shares are down by 18 . Bad day there. Cable stocks moved higher after fcc commissioner tom wheeler detailed his Net Neutrality plans that will not include rate regulations, any of that type of stuff. Those cable stocks comcast is the Parent Company of cnbc. Energy stocks falling as oil prices plummeted during the price of the day. Whats bad for one industry could be good for another. Airlines, of course, that inverse relationship holding true. Theyre soaring on Falling Crude prices. United delta, southwest very much in the green. Back over to you guys. Dom, thanks very much. By the way, speaking of that oil vix, the volatility index for crude oil, you know the cboe index, when it gets to about 20 that gets our attention. Its yellow flag territory. Look at the oil vix right now. Its in the 60 range. We got a oneyear chart. Its up 5 today at 62. 5. Everyone talking about buying volatility last year. Buying Oil Volatility would have worked even better. Speaking of which, united and delta have been upgraded to strong buys this week by our next guest. She says the u. S. Airline sector is well positioned to show strong earnings and cash flow even if fuel prices do not stay this low. Savvy joins us from raymond james. Shes behind that call and also with us is jack moore from the street. Com who is less optimistic about the airlines. Welcome to you both. Do you feel any differently now that oil has behaved today the way it has. No and that was really our call. We saw oil moving back up and we expect it to move back up. Our estimates for 2015 preflekt a reflect a 70 brand price. This is a group thats profitable at 100, 110 brent. Even if brent is at 70 or 80, it will be a group thats profitable. The fact were down 8 in crude, now that were back below 50, does that change your call at all . It just makes it stronger. You know what youre going to probably have into 2015 is possibly a onetime cash windfall for the group. As long as the economy stays strong, we expect fares to hold steady and a lot of cash to be generated and that cash is powerful because it can improve Balance Sheets and as well as create a lot of cash to be returned to shareholders. A great example is in 2008 when delta in the recession lost 1 billion. Most of all of that was related to interest expense. By doing nothing they have just halved the loss. Maybe we can get free peanuts at some point. Why arent you as optimistic about airlines . The one thing they said thats true is these stocks work if the economy is working. One thing for united and for delta, 45 of their business is tied to the international markets, and, you know, the u. S. Is doing well. Id love to own southwest, 99 of their business in the u. S. Theres concern once you go abroad and both of those companies spoke yesterday about the weak yen and weak euro and how that was impacting their business and thats just the fx side. Theres also just economically visa was saying how spending was coming down on the travel side in international markets. I think that opens up a big risk. But you have to admit, jack these guys have Pricing Power right now. As the price of oil was coming down, people were saying why dont they bring the price of the tickets down because theyre making so much money and at least one Airline Executive told us here that pricing is based on demand for those seats, not on the price of oil right now. Not on expenses. Right, and i think that the pricing the pricing is relatively strong, but that doesnt necessarily mean that its going to continue that way, and i completely disagree that a Higher Oil Price certainly in material level up to 100 is good for these companies. You see oil coming down today and these stocks going up but when oil was going up three days before that these stocks were down 10 to 15 . You talked about the Oil Volatility index being at 60. These stocks are essentially oil derivatives. Its very risky to own these unless youre going to try to make a fundamental call which i dont think has much strength. Savi, is part of your point its less of a call on oil than some of the unhedged ones like american or alee gent. Investors will probably sell these stocks in a gut reaction but oil cannot go back to 80 or 100 without the Global Economy improving is our conjecture. In that sense it Oil Moves Higher demand is probably improving as well. So i think what you will see as they report quarters is that earnings holds up even if Oil Prices Move up. I didnt see savi do you have price targets on these guys that you put the strong buys on . What are you waiting to happen . We do. We have 30 upside from current levels on these stocks and, again, its really that as fuel prices move up some of their losses on the hedges youre right, will be less but their earnings are still going to be very strong and if you look at our 2016 earnings theyre based on 80 brent and middling Global Economic growth and we still have some very attractive valuations. So she sees 30 upside. Jack what about you . I dont see the same. I think you have a lot of risk. When stock was working when analysts didnt believe in it but one by one thief been converted and now you have 16 buys and no sells. Thats a precarious position to be in. You know Current Events you cant extrapolate that into perpetuity and i dont believe they have many levers to pull. I think theyve done an incredible job of restructuring, but i think that any kind of spike in oil and any kind of weakening in the Global Economy which were already seeing you could see 10 to 20 lower from here. Two smart people two different points of view. I love that. Savi, jack thanks for joining us today. Thank you. Heading to the close. The dow is up 70 points but thats not really telling the whole story. We should probably just put up a chart of disney to tell that story. Nasdaq is a little higher and the s p a little lower. And Jeremy Siegel coming up. Also up next our weekly beat the street segment. 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To avoid longterm injury, get medical help right away for an erection lasting more than four hours. If you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision or any symptoms of an allergic reaction stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. Why pause the moment . Ask your doctor about cialis for daily use. For a free 30tablet trial go to cialis. Com welcome back. Take a look at markets here. The dow helped by disney as we mentioned, but not helped by oil, and that impact playing out across the s p today, but clearly the laggard, energy is the weakest space. The index has turned positive. Its holding at 2050. The nasdaq putting in a decent performance. There is disney theres the story of the day if youre wondering why the dow is up 80 points. It has a lot to do with this name. Strong earnings. Frozen not just describing the weather but certainly a lot of the merchandise. The frozen juggernaut is still strong and they still have star wars to come down the road. In december. Thats right. That series of movies that you would think would do very well. Were back with our weekly beat the street segment. Today real estate is the focus. Pimcos real return Real Return Strategy Fund is. Joining us is chief Investment Officer scott mathers. Good to see you. Thank you for joining us today. Good afternoon, bill and kelly. Is the reit market right now something you could just throw darts at or do you have to be selective . Where is it that youre finding the best return for your money right now . Well i should mention this particular fund the pimco real estate Real Return Fund shares some features in common with a broad suite of products we have targeting different sectors of the equity market. And whats unique about it is that were using different return drivers, so yes, our specialist expertise in the equity market in different sectors, but also the expertise we have in corporate bonds, in this case inflation linked bonds and other sectors, mortgages, securitized universe, et cetera and what were doing is using all of those specialists expertise areas weve doved over eddeveloped over the years to build portfolio with better return characteristics characteristics. I have no idea what you just said. Yeah. I know youre getting there somewhere. What i do think im hear something a lot of the performance of this index will depend on Inflation Expectations which our viewers should know have continued to drop precipitously. Why are you so confident they will turn around . This particular strategy its using reits, and so its using an index tied to the reit universe, and what were doing there is mainly focused on that but also using real return or inflation index bonds in the portfolio as well. So its a strategy that typically does well when inflation is rising. Both those sectors do well when inflation is rising but in this case both those sectors have done very well because of our call for low real rates. And so i should make a notation that the daytoday managers of those funds have done an excellent job. Earlier in the year she spotted this misvaluation of reits and our forecast for low real rates, which would continue to hold throughout a long period of time, socalled new neutral weve been talking about, meant that that asset class would be rerated. So thats why the fund has Something Like a 45 return over the last year. We would be remiss in not asking the chief Investment Officer at pimco about the total return fund. The outflows continue. It continued again last month. How frustrated are you to see that happen even as your new team beginning in october when you were managing this fund youre outperforming 83 of your competitors and yet the outflows continue. Is that a distraction for you or what are you doing . No, its not a distraction. Were 100 focused on returns and performance. We found that by doing that not only can we continue to deliver the excellent performance that by the way, weve had in the total return fund and across our other offerings, but ultima thely if you focus on returns, thats what investors care about. I want to ask broadly about rates here as well and the manufacture emphasis you place on real rates staying low. There are other people saying with the number of bonds around the world with negative yields how much lower really can we go here and what happens if the fed does start to move . I mean just give us a sense. Are you guys basically betting that the kind of Interest Rate environment were looking at is here to stay for a period of several years . Well we think were in a low rate environment for the period of several years for sure. We think its pretty unlikely that real rates can fall much further, and we do expect that the Federal Reserve will begin inching those real rates up to what we call our new neutral destination but its going to take years. Were in for a low rate environment for a good period of time. Part of the reason i ask, too, is that real estate has done so well lately here as people have desperately looked for yields. If rates do move higher at all, and i understand thats not your view, but would that be what snuffs out the real rally weve seen in some of the real estate and related funds lately . Well it could be if it wasnt matched with superior economic performance. You would think the two would go hand in hand. Its our forecast it will continue to have a Pretty Healthy growth rebound in the u. S. That should deliver some ability to raise rents across the real estate sector. Largely because theres been an episode of underbuilding. Its going to take many years for that to catch up. Even while real rates can gently rise you can still do pretty good by investing in an income producing asset class like the real estate Real Return Fund. All right. Scott, good to see you. Thanks for joining us. Appreciate it. Youre welcome. Thank you. Scott mather the chief Investment Officer at pimco out in california. And prrsx is the ticker for that name as well. Our thanks to scott. Weve got 30 minutes to go into the bell. The dow is up almost 100 appointments. Dont look now. Weve been stuck between 17,000 and 18,000 since early december. Our bob pisani will take a closer look at why thats been happening. Plus whartons Jeremy Siegel is back with us to tell us when he thinks it will break out of that range and which way it goes when it does. Well talk fed policy the affect of global central fed easing on wall street and a whole lot more. Were back in two. Theres confidence. Then theres trusting your vehicle maintenance to ford service confidence. Our expertise, technology, and high quality parts mean your peace of mind. Now you can get the works, a multipoint inspection with a Synthetic Blend Oil change tire rotation, Brake Inspection and more. 29. 95 or less. Welcome back. The volatility continues. That is for sure. Oil is trading in the electronic session and its coming off its lows and now suddenly weve had a pop in the industrial average. The dow is up more than 100 points. Now to 17,773. The nasdaq is up 15 and thats put the s p back in positive territory. Were showing the dow heat map. All 30 components a little more than half are positive and, of course disney is pinned at the top of the category right now. A lot of interest in visa today, too. The dow has been making huge moves for the last two months but it hasnt really gone anywhere. Bob pisani you get the lucky job of explaining it to us. I want to show you how wild the ride has been because its been a thousandpoint churn and it began in the beginning of december. We hit historic highs just shy of 18,000 in the beginning of december, then we plunged 1,000 points in a little over a week here to about 17,000. The third week of december. The dow rallied another 1,000 points. Then were back to over 18,000 a little over that. We move sideways for a week, closed around 18,000 december 31st and it started all over again. The dow swung in a 200point range daily in january and then february 2nd we were down essentially at 17,000. And now look i want to show you the chart. Were moving back towards 18,000 again. The dow has rallied more than 700 points in just three days. Now, you know whats the motivation here. Its oil and its europe. Take a look at the chart of oil. Oil is dropping already going into december but it took a big leg down that first week and then kept dropping like a rock. Went from 60 to 55 and then it stabilized and the market stabilized a little and its been up and down since then and even today thats the story. Same with europe. Here is the vgx, the european stock market. Fell out of bed in early disease. Fears greece might exit the euro. Every turn of the greek saga europe has been moving up and down and thats moving our markets as well. If you would have stayed in the lower band bought on the close bought close to the 17,000 level, youd be doing already right now, but its a tough call because its happening again today. Were moving in exact line with the oil markets. Down and then up again. Guys, back to you. Bob thank you. You know this rally now reminds me of late yesterday when we learned then that there was a huge imbalance to the buy side. We dont know the numbers yet at this point. Art cashin just came by and said he didnt have anything yet for us, but this pop were see something very reminiscent of what we saw late yesterday. Given the absence of headline that is would otherwise perhaps be moving it. Our thanks to bob. What is the catalyst that will break stocks out of this range here . Well, with us now exclusively is Wharton School professor of finance Jeremy Siegel. Welcome back professor. Happy to be here. I just want to begin by asking is your dow 20k call still on for this year . I think its very very possible. You know we know that Lower Oil Prices is good for the United States. A stronger dollar is actually also good but there can be too much too fast and i think the plummeting oil the soaring dollar caused so much chaos in earnings projections i mean the real source of the decline in earnings estimates are those two factors, oil going down and the dollar going up. And i think what the market is seeing, maybe there is a little stability here. Weve seen oil rally, weve seen the euro come back a little bit, and i think those two factors are able to anchor the market and if we can get some stability in those factors, i think the market can move ahead from this position. Jeremy, as you well know the last, what four or five years a lot of people have said where else are you going to put your money but the u. S. Equity market . You know you have difficulties in europe and china is slowing down and our Interest Rates are bad. So put your money in u. S. Equities but now were starting to hear from people who are looking to europe as sort of a value play and i wonder if that takes some of the momentum away from the u. S. Equity market. What do you think . Well european stocks are selling a lit cheaper, maybe 10 , 15 on a price earnings basis from the United States. I think a big question is do you have some more risk of euro depreciation . Actually i think there is some more risk there. I think a lot of risk has been taken out. Certainly from 135 down to 115, but, you know, draghi hasnt even begun the qe. I think a lot of people are looking for a dollar there. So you got to be careful. If you could hedge obviously the euro decline, i think there are some attractive stocks there, and certainly among the exporteders. They export out of the eurozone. They could be looking at pretty good demands in earnings increases. There are opportunities there but take a look. The Interest Rates there are even lower than here and theyre basically zero everywhere. So stocks are still i think really the dominant game for anyone who either wants yield or protection or return. Professor, would you distinguish between good and bad stock rallies . Weve heard a lot of guests say as everybody looks to the u. S. As being the most attractive place in the world, do those inflows start to push us for example, to a higher valuation, one that isnt justified. Does it trigger a response at the fed at some point . Are you worried we could get to see that kind of stock market rally instead of one built on Earnings Growth . Well were looking at, what about 17. 5 sometimes this years earnings, 18 maybe, and thats greatly reduced earnings as they have come down quite dramatically in the last couple weeks. In a very low Interest Rate climate, thats not excessive. Remember back in 2000 we had 30 price earnings ratio in a much higher Interest Rate climate, and, yes, you should be scared in that situation. Actually referring to the fed i would love to see a tenth of a point increase in the Unemployment Rate, an increase in participation rate. I like the job growth but i want more people to enter the labor force. I think if the fed sees that happening, they will put off any increase because thats their primary worry, is a tightening labor supply we need more people coming into the labor force with the good job opportunities. Thats something that im going to be looking at on friday in the jobs report. All right. Jeremy, always good to see you. Thank you for joining us. Thank you much. Jeremy siegel of wharton in pennsylvania joining us. Volume taltatility continues. We were up 110 points now up 50 points. 20 minutes to go. Really could be anything at this point. The s p now lower again by 3 points. The vix a bit lower on the session while the nasdaq up by about 2, and brace yourselves for another blitz of after the bell earnings. Yum brands among the big names reporting tonight. We have 21st century fox, Keurig Green Mountain, underarmour on the list. The numbers you need to watch out for are coming up next and well bring you those results the second they hit the tape along with the instant analysis. So dont go anywhere. You show up. You stay up. You listen. You laugh. You worry. You do whatever it takes to take care of your family. And when its time to plan for your familys future were here for you. Were legalzoom, and for over 10 years weve helped families just like yours with wills and living trusts. So when youre ready start with us. Doing the right thing has never been easier. Legalzoom. Legal help is here. Know that chasing performance can mean lower returns and fewer choices in retirement. Know that proper allocation could help increase returns so you can enjoy that second home sooner. Know the right Financial Planning can help you save for college and retirement. Know where you stand with pnc total insight. A new investing and Banking Experience with personalized guidance and online tools. Visit a branch, call or go online today. You just got a big bump in miles. So this is a great opportunity for an upgrade. Sound good . Great. Because youre not you youre a whole airline. And its not a ticket youre upgrading its your entire operations, from domestic to international. Which means you need help from a whole team of advisors. From workforce strategies to Tech Solutions and a thousand other things. So you call pwc. The right people to get the extraordinary done. Okay. Things are starting to make a little more sense. We saw a rally a little bit ago, a gain of about 110 points. Now it suddenly has vanished and here is why. The ecb is just out now saying that it cannot assume a successful conclusion to the greek bailout review. Theres been high hopes this week after the finance minister of greece was making positive comments on monday and tuesday, now the ecb is out saying lets not get ahead of ourselves. It seems the meetings with uk and with france went better than germany and germany is obviously the key player in all of this. So these remarks both from Germany First earlier today now from the European Central bank on the wires are certainly going to put markets into a more skittish mode here. And thats exactly whats going on right now. So that 110point gain in just a matter of minutes is now up just 24 points. So well see how we do in the last 15 minutes here. Meantime, another day, another full plate of earnings after the bell tonight. Our dominic chu is here with a preview. The names and the numbers to watch. Kelly, bill from the macro picture you were talking about to the micro Company Specific stories, here is the calendar for this afternoon and theres a whole bunch of them but these are the four well focus on some of the headlines, if you will. Well start with yum brands. Analysts are looking for earnings of 66 cents on sales of 3. 97 billion. Ill be on those headline numbers. Yum brands is about that china samestore sales number. Then you move to 21st century fox. The Media Company is expected to earn 41 cents a share on sales of 7. 1 billion. Now, lets move over here to underarmour. A very big focus for investors. Analysts looking for earnings of 39 cents a share on sales of 849 million. A lot of focus will be about the shoes. Not all about the shoes but a good chunk of it for under armour. And finally a volatile trade could come via Keurig Green Mountain. This is themaker of the single serve coffee pots. Its expected to earn 89 cents a share and right now according to think or swim the Options Market is already pricing in what could be a 9 move up or down in thoseg gmcr shares. Thank you very much. Breathtaking volatility right now. 14 minutes left. The dow moments ago was up 110. Now its down 4 points. Nasdaq down 16. S p down 10. And for anybody who says europe doesnt matter it certainly matters right now. So does greece. The ecb potentially suspending acceptance of greek bonds as greece indicates it wont necessarily be cooperating. As we talk about u. S. Earnings, we have another head spinning round coming up and also how disney reacted to earnings gives you a sense of why you wont want to miss these stocks moving after hours. Stay with us. Were back in two. Welcome back. So after greece elected a new government, it took a tougher stance with regard to its austerity programs imposed upon the country. Now were seeing the effect first from other Member Nation now from the European Central bank itself. Potentially suspending greek bonds as collateral again and talking about whether there will be an ability to come to a successful conclusion of the Program Review bill. And that took the wind out of the sails of the rally. The dow moments ago was up 110 points. Now you see down 3 points. On the news line we have our chief international correspondent, michelle carusocabrera. Can you flesh this out a little more for us . Sure. So this is a decision by the ecb thats going to put a lot more pressure on the new greek government to come to a deal sooner rather than later. The ecb is saying that greek banks can no longer bring greek government bonds to the ecb for collateral. This is oldfashioned banking. This is how central banking works in all the world. Banks in a certain country can bring collateral to the central bank and thats how they get funding. Now the ecb is saying the greek banks cant do this anymore and the reason theyre saying this is because greek Government Debt is not Investment Grade rated at this point. They had a special waiver because greece was in a program and they were doing reforms, et cetera. The new greek government says we dont want to do that program anymore. So the ecb says if youre not going to stick with the program, then we cant give you that waiver anymore. Theyve given greece a little bit of breathing room the greek banks can still go to the National Bank of greece a division of the central bank of the European Central bank but thats much more expensive for them to do. And so its going to be more costly for the banks, and at any time the ecb can say you cant do that anymore either. Once the banks cant fund themselves, then you get capital control, people cant get money out of the banks, et cetera. This is going to raise the pressure on the greek government. Thats exactly it. Raise the pressure on the greek government using the Financial System as the tool basically of doing that. What do you expect next year . Is the new finance minister a little bit of a meet and greet tour with these other eurozone nations. What happens now . So they have backed down. The new government had all these demands they insisted they were going to do when they got into office. They were going to face down the European Union and convince them to cut the debt in half. They were going to convince the ecb to give them more lenient terms. They have backed down on all of those things so far. The next thing is if they back down does this move force them to back down on all the reforms that they were trying to roll back . Right. Because the ecb wants them to be in the program. The program forces them to do all the reforms. If they dont do it the reforms, theyre not in the program, they cant get the funding. This sounds like horse trading. Theyve taken the waiver away but they could still put a back couldnt they . Oh yeah. They could absolutely put it back. They could revoke what theyve allowed already, which is going to the local bank of greece right . That would be the next step that would be incredibly painful that would really bring the country to a screeching halt. Were watching the sausage being made and its not pretty and its taken the rally down. Michelle, thank you, as always. Thanks. Thanks so much. Well come back with a closing countdown. Weve got seven minutes left. Anything is possible here. And we should mention this on a big order to buy on the close. I forgot about that. The news really overwhelming even that positioning today. Well see if earnings can make a difference. After the bell we get results from 21st century fox, yum, under armour to name a few and get this multimillion dollar amusement tower under development. It offers foreigners u. S. Citizenship if they invest. Really . Is it legal though . Diana olick joins us with a special report you have to hear. Youre watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. I take prilosec otc each morning for my frequent heartburn. Because it gives me. Zero heartburn prilosec otc. The number 1 doctorrecommended frequent heartburn medicine for 9 straight years. One pill each morning. 24 hours. Zero heartburn. Opinions. Theres no shortage in this world. Who do you trust . Whose analysis is accurate . How do you make sense of it all . A simple unbiased stock score consolidated from the opinions of independent analysts. Is that too much to ask . Nope. Equity summary score powered by starmine, will help you execute your ideas with speed and conviction. And its only on fidelity. Com. Open an account and find more of the expertise you need to be a better investor. Welcome back. 3 30. What a chart today. The gains for the dow much of the session attributable to disney with their big earnings last night. Disney was up 7 8 much of this day. Thats disney until the close. We had this rally heading into the close here. We were up 110 on the dow until the moment the European Central bank comes out and says they lets not everybody assume that theres going to be a positive resolution to the greek debt negotiations because they took away the ability of the greek government to use greek bonds as collateral in these negotiations. There went the rally into negative territory even with 600 million of stock to buy on the close and in balances. That has not helped this market come back here. The other big story of the day was oil. The rally wed had since last thursday is gone as of today. For a time oil was down 10 briefly. Its down almost 8 now, back below 50. Big, big day for oil. Now we have earnings, more of them coming out tonight. Well see if any of these can be Market Movers for tomorrow. They include 20th century fox, yum brands Keurig Green Mountain and under armour all reporting in the next hour. Ben willis oliver what a day. You love the volatility here. Love the val tiltolt tilt volatility. Get used to it. We have to look to the Central Banks for some direction. 15 Central Banks have cut their rates since january. The United States is still has to try to manage those expectations because we know our rates have to go higher and thats why you have this volatility and its not going away. How are you navigating this now . You buy and hold. You stick with it. You stick with fort what are you buying . You buy right now some of the Oil Companies. Theyre good value. You can start stepping in. Theres some stability in the market developing. You might be a little early but if youre a longterm investor thats fine and i think if you stick with the big names like an exxonmobil exxonmobil, like a chevron, like a total that have strong history, youre in good shape. Look at some of the secondary financials and by that we mean the American Expresses or visas. Theyre terrific buys here. Were going to differ slightly you and i. I dont think the fed is going to raise rates this year. I think theyll be hamstrung and not be able to. They want to but wont be able to. But rates are rising here. The 10year is almost back to the levels we saw at that october low of 1. 86 . Youre having markets act naturally taking the reins that have been put on it with the Central Banks, particularly the fed. Youre seeing the natural flow of rates the way theyre supposed to be headed which is why theres a huge short position in anticipation of that happening. I have to also be looking at the russell 2000. I dont disagree is the oil place to be and hospital stocks. Hospitals took it on the chin last week but thats a place id be looking at. What impact is oil having on equities right now . For a time they work in tandem then they are in opposite directions. Now what are they doing . Theres confusion, volatility. It should be looked at as a stimulus package being created by the Oil Producers because thats going to give buying power and the customer demand which is why i like the russell 2000. All right. Good to see you both. Appreciate your thoughts. Oliver and ben willis. What a day, and after all that volatility, were going to finish virtually unchanged on the Dow Jones Industrial average. But dont think thats going to happen again tomorrow because we have a slew of earnings coming out right now. You will find them on the second hour of the closing bell with kelly evans. See you tomorrow, kel. Thank you, bill. Welcome to the closing bell, everybody. Im kelly evans. What a ride its been. A storm of earnings about to cross the tape. Here is how were finishing the session on wall street. We saw stocks turn negative in the final minutes on this news that the European Central bank will suspend greek bonds. Greece can still go to its National Banks. This is yet another step in a series of negotiations that will continue to play out in the weeks ahead. The sn p closing lower, giving up 8 points. The nasdaq gig up 11 points. The dow managing to just stay positive and we basically have disney to thank for that. Lets bring in todays panel. Stephanie link nathan baccarat and Sharon Epperson and also with us is fast money trader brian kelly. Whats going on here . Is the ecb intending for this to be a quite serious step to keep greece on the back foot and force them to come to the table with negotiation sms. Its no doubt a negotiating tactic. Most likely from the german side of the table. They are the ones that are ultimately on the hook here. And, you know, the market sold off here but two, three days ago when we had that announcement that greece had put together some gdp debt bonds, the market ripped 10 20 handles in 20 minutes. That was just as unjustified as this is in my view. Thats a great point. As mentioned, we have a bunch of earnings hitting the tape here. Youre going to start to see the numbers come through. Well get more on results in just a second. Stephanie, do you buy the weakness here because of the europe news if you think its not going to derail the u. S. Rally. I think the volatility will continue. I was most disappointed with oil prices today. Instability is out of control. You cannot really get a handle on when you really want to be buying a big part of the s p, right . Thats about 9 of the s p 500. What i was encouraged about was the consumer. Macys costco kohls whirlpool, General Motors ford last week. So we are seeing starting to see the benefits of the Lower Oil Prices and it was interesting, starbucks a couple weeks ago said oil prices have not impacted their business just yet. The Lower Oil Prices that he expected that to come in the coming quarter so were starting to see that and i think thats going to be a continued theme as we go through this year, so thats a place where i think you can still buy and i still think the financials because the consumer gets stronger they lend more. Even with rates doing what they have . I think the Net Interest Margin is pretty well known. Theyre closing below tangible book value. I think thats a close. The loan growth will be the highlight Going Forward. Here is a company that looks like its a miss on the consumer side but a story all of its own. Keurig Green Mountain out with quarterly results. Sara eisen with the numbers. 1. 39 billion in revenues. The street was looking for 1. 5 billion. When it comes to earnings per share it was pretty much in line, 88 cents. The estimates were coming in at 89 cents. A big part of the story was the miss on sales of the brewers, of course, the very important product, and that came in very light. 308 million. That was about 18 lower than last year. You will recall that there were recalls over the quarter of more than 6. 5 million of these keurig machines, and they were spewing hot water. That certainly had an impact during this quarter. When it comes to the outlook and the guidance keurig is taking it down to the bottom end of their previous range for the year. Theyre expecting now mid to single digit eps growth for the year and theyre taking it down to low excuse me high single digit growth for revenues on the year. Some of the reasons why, keurig international. They operate in canada about 10 of the business. The Canadian Dollar has been absolutely whacked, so thats going to Impact Business over the year. And they had to deal with this issue in the First Quarter of the recall of the brewers. But keurig does still say its optimistic about the sale of 2. 0 which is the latest home brewing machine and theyre still on track to launch keurig cold. I know a lot of investors are enthused about that later in the fall. Theyll be holding an event for that in may to show it off a little bit to the press. Its been a really big mystery although they have been signing up partners including cocacola and dr. Pepper snapple. Thank you. Nathan, were just chuckleing here because this is not necessarily the same kind of story like a disney if you want to talk about consumer strength. Theyve had some operational issues. Im going to do something very dangerous. I will compare hewlettpackard and keurig. They will all be about the cartridges and thats about it. My wife still angry that the old cartridges dont work in the old machine. 20th century fox is out with numbers. 21st century fox reporting both earnings and revenue that are higher than expected. Reporting 53 cents in earnings per share versus expectations of 41 cents and up from the year ago of 33 cents. So up 20 cents from the year ago period. Now, revenue coming in stronger than expected as well. 8. 06 billion. Now, thats still down a hair from the 8. 16 billion from last year, but it is stronger than the 7. 4 billion that was expected. The company also announcing that its increasing its dividend by 20 . Now, as to what really drove the results this quarter, it was increases at Cable Network programming segment from both higher affiliate and advertising revenues. Back over to you. Julia, thank you. Sharon . I think this is a good thing for investors to Pay Attention to in all these Earnings Releases is listen to what the companies have to say about what theyre doing with their dividends. Increasing that dividend is significant for those who are not going to go inside the numbers and try to decipher what is happening with the studio business, with the tv business. Just Pay Attention to what companies have to say about the dividend. In a way thats exactly what the market has been doing. Its been trading not necessarily even risk day in and day out but almost yield. One day its all the dividend and yield plays that are working and the next day its not depend depending on the 10year. Earning season we always break it down so well but it can be so confusing. They want to know what i should be looking for inside the numbers. If you stick with that looking at that number can give you a lot of guidance. Is that risky though stephanie, to not be looking so much at the fundamentals . I think you have to look at both right, and you have to listen to what the companies say. But i think its really important to get perspective. The stock is down 10 to date. Everybody is nervous about Cable Network ratings. Meeting and exceeding on the programming side is encouraging. This is a quality company, and they have a lot more room on their Balance Sheet to raise that dividend Going Forward and i think thats very encouraging. Even as we are getting word that allstate is raising its dividend by 7 . Lazard playing out a special dividend. It doesnt take too much work to see the theme here. But its important to so many of our investors who are approaching that age where they need the yield, the income. A lot of investors who need that yield now and those who may just need it for part of their portfolio who maybe much younger. Its still a very important part of many portfolios. I think with the rockiness of overseas, the unevenness in terms of the economies, i think some of the big Global Players are trying to figure out how they can create value if they dont see the top line overseas. Sure, the u. S. Is doing better but if they have that cash why not return it to shareholders. Nothing lasts for however and by the end of the year janet yellen will have a little to say about yields. I dont think she will miss up the party but she will give everybody a chance for a pause. You dont think shes going to raise Interest Rates this year . She will but not enough to really spoil the Dividend Party. I think the Dividend Party has another year to go. You will look back just like 2014 and youll go you know what . Im an investment genius it will continue to work for a while. And we will have more on this topic later. Coming back to just a couple of these names, stephanie, does it affect markets tomorrow . We know that gmcr is a specific story to some extent but its a momentum name. It is a momentum name but theyre heavily investing in their cold business and they have currency issues for sure. So not a very cheap stock at 32 times forward estimates, not extremely expensive but for what youre getting if youre just going to get the low end of that range, youre not getting the growth for that multiple. So this is a Company Specific issue. Theres a lot of other good things happening in the consumer. I think you want to gravitate towards those. What do you make of the results as well as the results from fox and what are you buying . What do you like here . Im not buying much. Im not sure these two particular names are going to have a broad market appeal as we saw with the ecb announcement and oil. Thats really what the market is focused on now. So in these particular two names, the only thing i would say about the folks out there trying to look for dividends is that, you know, this hollows out a company. The signal from them is that, hey, we have nothing else to invest in. We dont know where our Revenue Growth is going to come from so were just going to do some financial engineering. Thats so true but dividend payouts as i understand it are actually a rather historical low which is interesting because companies have had so much cash on hand. Were actually not even back towards something thats more historically normal for whatever thats worth. Look at it because companies have so much cash theres nothing out there to invest in. Theyve had very low dividend yields. Theyre starting to pay it out. The point is its just not a fantastic sign. I dont think its positive at all. In the short term people will buy these stocks absolutely. But be careful because they are stocks. Theyre not bonds, and they have a lot more volatility than bonds and that dividend can go away like that. All right. Brian, thank you. We got to leave it right there. Catch brian kelly coming up with the rest of the fast money crew at 5 00. They will have all the after hours action on the Conference Calls from under armour and much more. Dont miss a moment of that. We have a verdict in a major online Drug Trafficking trial. Mary thompson has the details. This concerns the silk road trial after a threeweek trial, a jury of six men and six women took less than an afternoon to find william ross guilty on all seven counts. Those counts include Drug Trafficking and conspiracy to commit money laundering. What you might recall is that he was arrested in october of 2013 and charged with operating the online drug bizarre called silk road made famous in large part because the only payments that were accepted on silk road were payments made with Virtual Currency bitcoin. The government alleges can you agree the two years he ran silk road ulbricht profiting generating sales of over 200 million. The defense said while he did start silk road he actually left and then came back to run it right before the feds nabbed him in San Francisco in october of 2013. The prosecution alleges that he was ruthless in protecting his criminal enterprise going so far as to pay over 650,000 in a murder for hire scheme to put down a client who had threatened to reveal the names of silk road customers. In a statement u. S. Attorney Preet Bharara saying he bit built this bazaar to exploit Virtual Currency. His conviction should send a clear message to anyone else attempting to operate an online criminal enterprise. First four charges carry a maximum penalty of life in prison. Evidently or reportedly, he was stoic when the verdict was read. His parents, who were in the courtroom, broke down. Back to you. Mary thompson thank you so much. With the latest on that. Earnings continue. We have yum brands hitting the tape and jane wells is keeping an eye on this one. The top line beat slightly for the quarter at 4 billion, but the adjusted eps disappointed slightly. Coming in at 61 cents. The street was looking for 66 cents. The real story with yum is the china story. It has been having to recover from a supplier issue there. Samestore sales in china were apparently down 5 but thats much better than the street expected which was close to down 18 . Were going to get more. The new ceo has just started and hes on this. Saying were committed to restoring our track record of delivering at least 10 annual eps growth year after year. Oshg okay. That is confirming that. He says im confident we will do this in 2015 as our China Business recovers and we sustain positive momentum across. Thats the latest right now. A little beat on the top, kind of a miss on the bottom but china not as bad as expected. Back to you. Thank you, jane. Thats enough to 1e7ndsend shares higher by 1 after hours for yum brands. Much more ahead. The Unemployment Rate standing at 5. 6 or does it . The chairman and ceo of gallup says its one big lie. Hell back that up coming up on the closing bell. Youre watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. Welcome back. Weve got more on this Keurig Green Mountain results with sara eisen. Stock is getting hit pretty hard. Want to highlight some of the negatives investors are focusing on. Stock down 7 in the afterhours. The sales missing expectations. As mentioned, 1. 39 billion. Street was looking for 1. 5 billion and that was largely due to the hit in brewer sales, down 18 from last year. A lot had to do with the recall that they experienced over the quarter. The other negative, guidance. The outlook for 2015 Keurig Green Mountain took it down to the bottom end of the range that it had initially forecast both on earnings and on sales thanks in part to the weakening of the Canadian Dollar and that hit on the bottom and top line and because of what it experienced during the fourth quarter. This is a stock that was one of the bess performers on the s p. It was up 55 over 12 months. High expectations of growth. Its been hit pretty hard down 18 in the last three months and getting punished in the afterhours as well. All right. Sara, thank you so much. As mentioned, that stock down 7 after hours. And the earnings continue. Its been wild, by the way, here. Well continue the bar brage andrage and get the thoughts of dennis gartman, jeff cox, and herb greenberg. Dennis, let me begin against the backdrop of some troubling 2k0e6789s in developments in europe. A mixed bag after hours. What is drawing your attention at the moment . What really captured my attention was this the ploy i think you should call it by the ecb denying the greeks the right to use their own debt as collateral. I think everybody expected that was going to be allowed. Now its not going to be allowed. This is a debate going on. These are people at the poker table and these are very high stakes games. In the end grease is going to be allowed to do who knows, something. Theyre going to be allowed to come out with some sort of bond issue. Theyre going to extend their debt. Theres going to be some debt forgiveness. This we know. This is just the kabuki dance that goes on but you have to be very careful. When youre trading Foreign Exchange markets, when youre trading stock markets, this sort of news can come out of nowhere, and here you are in the afternoon trading the u. S. Stock market and you get news out of germany, news out of greece takes, what 2 or 3 out of the stock market in a short span of time. Be careful. Use puts use positions to defend yourself. Be careful. Thats all i can tell you. The volatility of the past week and a half sun like anything i have seen in my career and i have been at this 40 years. Well come back to this. First lets hit results from under armour with courtney reagan. Thats right. So under armour reporting earnings of 40 cents per share. Analysts were looking for 39. Revenues stronger at 895 million. Footwear revenue up 55 and i highlight that because thats a big growth driver for the company Going Forward. Under armour announcing the acquisitions of some fitness companies. One is my fitness pal for 475 million in addition to another Company Called edmondo. Its a large Global Fitness community. Courtney thank you. Under armour shares are up 2. 5 . Lets get more reaction. Weve got our jeff cox and herb greenberg. Is this you chuckling, herb . No, thats me chuckling. Herb im going to go though. Lets talk a little gmcr. Im looking at finished goods up 131 on brewers and accessories. You have to understand they say right up front, they say this was not the Holiday Season they expected, and youre talking about brewers not selling this new 2. 0 brewer which does create, as you guys said earlier, confusion in the marketplace. Obviously there was pushback by consumers. And the story here outside of the brewers, of course that theyll keep trying to keep people hooked to is going to be the cold machine with coke. Thats really what the story is going to amount to. I was on stephanie link and i, when i was at the street with her, we would talk about this. I said they come out with that cold machine, all bets are off until we see how that goes. Youre seeing the base business does appear to have some issues. Herb they have already got you hooked on caffeine. What else do they need . Now we have hackers going after them because people are building up resentment about the pods and using them more than once. I think you could look back a year from now and say thats a kind of resentment in the consumer that is not good for you. Well thats the misread of the consumer. Many of us when we were thinking about this other people i talked to short sellers and others when 2. 0 came out, the question was how would the why would the consumer go to another machine . What was it . And so they tried to hook all the retailers in by with a patent and say, you know, you can only use these pods and that gets to be the issue, especially for consumer thats looking for a low price, especially if theyre drinking certain types of coffee. They dont care as much about taste, they care about price and therein lies the problem. You now have caused some less than goodwill among your customer base. Thats what i want to jeff cox as well. Is a company like under armour striking the right chord with consumers . Kelly, id like to take a little more macro view of what were seeing from earnings. Looking in the Rearview Mirror is an easy came to play. The biggest message were getting from companies is looking forward. I think go to keurig and some of the other companies. You look at the negative the positive revision history is staggering. More than five to one negative outlooks outweighing positive outlooks for the future. Were expecting the economy to hit escape velocity this year. Goldman sachs just lowered their projection for cap ex this year from plus 6 to minus 3 . Now, were also hoping for the consumer to come through. The consumer the sentiment level is really high but the actual Consumer Behavior is not that great. The consumer is not spending. So i just think were seeing the crystal ball for the future is not real great from what were getting from earnings overall. One of the things i want to say about under armour, a lot of consumers consumers, including my 12yearold son who is totally into basketball, as a parent buying for a son, they dont like to discount and theyre getting into what a lot of consumers of fitness gear are into which is Technology Based fitness like my fitness pal. Consumers are using it. Sports apparel is growing at 9 on average versus regular apparel thats growing at 2 on average. Im surprised its even positive for regular apparel. Thats right, i know. You wear fitness clothes on the weekend pretending theyre going to go to the gym. Under armour catches adidas within the year. I dont think it matters. I dont think it matters. The trend is the trend. And its not going to change anytime soon. And the products are only Getting Better. The technology is only Getting Better and thats companies are fabulously well run. Dennis s that you . Yeah thats me. Last word. I guess im too old guard. Its not cotton thats all i can tell you and it doesnt feel good. Dennis theyre not making this stuff for you or for me. Dennis you are a commodity guy. Youre talking your book we think. Uhhuh. Some cotton positions here to disclose. Thank you for being here. Dennis, appreciate it. Herb greenberg and our jeff cox back at headquarters on the full session of earnings. Weve got low gasoline prices helping consumers save plenty of money at the pump. Is it threatening to hurt retailers . Hurt retailers . Were going to explain that next. Also look out disney. Bungee jumping and free fall rides just two of the highlights at nearly half billion entertainment tower being built in miami and its financing is helping rich foreigners gain residency to live here. This is for real and its coming up. Oices in retirement. Know that proper allocation could help increase returns so you can enjoy that second home sooner. Know the right Financial Planning can help you save for college and retirement. Know where you stand with pnc total insight. A new investing and Banking Experience with personalized guidance and online tools. Visit a branch, call or go online today. Well begin with our dominic chu and another earnings alert. Shocking, i know on this kind of busy day. Two more companies reporting. Were going to start with tableau software. Its soaring after posting better than expected quarterly earnings. Those shares up by 20 in the afterhours. Then theres glu mobile. Here is the big headline. It also announced it will partner with katy perry on the development of a new mobile game. You could say that katy perry is yes, bonding with glu. Glu mobile up on the heels of katy perrys blistering halftime show. I want to know if the sharks get a deal too. A monster gain yesterday for oil. Today its monster losses. Jackie deangelis joins us with the details. As they were saying in the oil pits today, easy come, easy go. We saw three Straight Days of Massive Gains in crude oil but a big loss almost 5 bucks. A 9 drop on the day. Wti infinishing at 48. 45. We got a big build in inventories from the department of energy. Record stocks weve seen since 1982 since they started keeping records. So some of the reality started to come back into the market. But you also had gains in the dollar and weak data out of china reminding people that maybe cap ex cuts and rig count declines will start to impact the production situation, but thats going to be in the back half of the year. For right now theres a lot of oil out there. Back to you. There is. Jackie thank you very much. Youd think Lower Energy Prices would be a boon to retailers, but it may end up hurting some of them. Courtney reagan is here to explain why. Hi courtney. So listen to this. While Lower Oil Prices do help consumers by lowering the price at the pump there are regions of the country that could be disprofortion gnatportionately hurt. If Oil Companies are laying off employees or wages decline, pockets of consumers in oilproducing regions will lose Discretionary Spending. Why is that a problem . Wells fargo looked at the top Oil Producing states in the u. S. And which retail verselilers have a higher concentration of stores in those areas. More than half of all stage Stores Locations are in oilproducing states. Similarly, boot barn has 38 of stores in these regions. The companys ceo says the worries are overdone. A quarter of walmarts u. S. Stores are located in these nine oil reliant regions as well as a quarter of ross stores. Jcpenney is only slightly less concentrated with 22 of its store base in those regions. A fifth of target stores are located in areas dependent on the oil economy. Kohls, tjx, macys and nordstrom follow with 16 and 15 respectively. But its not just the u. S. Regions that analysts are watching because 21 of Lululemon Stores are located in canadian oil reliant economies followed by carters tjx again, l brands american eagle, and kors. Joining me with his take is joe feldman. Great to have you with us. And so what do you short these names in the oil affected regions . No i dont think so. I think, you know, yes, theres exposure in some of the regions to all those stores but it doesnt mean that sales are going to just fall off a cliff as a result of this. And the lower gas prices actually can help the consumer and coincidentally most of those states are the most populous states the country. Theres a reason for that. I think we shouldnt overdo it either way. Its not a big boom or a big bust. Joe isnt the real issue this is Sharon Epperson wages and wage growth and regardless of whether oil prices and gas prices continue to decline, if wages do not increase consumers will not have the Discretionary Spending they need to go to some of these stores or to even purchase some of the necessary items that they may need at a rapid pace. Yeah. I think thats absolutely right. All the analysis weve done through the years shows that employment levels and wage growth are really the key determinants of whats going to happen with retail spending. Yes, theres inflections like the lower gas prices and impacts like that but it really does come down to do people have jobs and are they of course yeah. Why are you shaking your head . I dont think to take issue with anybody. Be the curmudgeon for the afternoon. If you look how Credit Card Companies report, they will tell you simple half of everything that americans now have from the gas pump is going into savings. 25 is going to pay down debt and 25 of it is going to small items. When you save 10 bucks at the pump, im talking about a sixback of beer all right . This has nothing you dont start investing or spending more when youre getting it at the pump and you dont know whether its going to be consistent. You dont think it would be good for retailers. Just look at visas report look at mastercards report look at American Express report. They all posted very good gross domestic volume growth of 8 to 10 . Clearly the Lower Oil Prices for the Credit Card Companies will impact the volumes because of the lower dollar amount but apparently the consumers are still spending. I would say that Consumer Sentiment plays a very important part in addition to the wage numbers and the job growth would you say so . Last word joe . Yeah i think thats correct. Were seeing more going to savings. The savings rate went up in december. But people will slowly unwind that savings. Theyll realize it takes some time. Its more like a tax rebate check from the government. People bank it for a little bit and then it gets spent. We can hope. Joe feldman, thanks for being here. Appreciate it. It sounds like something out of the x files, a Big Government lie. Gallup chairman and Joe Jim Clifton says the Unemployment Rate the government reports each month is simply a lie. Hell tell us why next. And twitter measuring your tweets to know when youre happy so retailers know when to try to sell you stuff. Well discuss whether thats a Smart Business move or a creepy invasion of privacy. At ally bank no branches equals great rates. Its a fact. Kind of like mute buttons equal danger. That sound good . Not being on this phone call sounds good. Its not muted. Was that you jason . It was geoffrey it was jason. It couldve been brenda. I love my meta health bars. Because when nutritious tastes this delicious i dont miss the other stuff. Meta health bars help promote heart health. Experience the meta effect with our multihealth wellness line. The real question that needs to be asked is what is it that we can do that is impactful . What the cloud enables is computing to empower cancer researchers. It used to take two weeks to sequence and analyze a genome; with the microsoft cloud we can analyze 100 per day. Whatever i can do to help compute a cure for cancer, thats what id like to do. The u. S. Unemployment rate is sitting at 5. 6 or is it . My next guest says that number is just one big lie. Joining us now is jim clifton, ceo of the gallup organization, and also with us is diane swank from mesereau financial. You certainly have everybodys attention. There are plenty of people who agree with you by the way, but i want to be clear on what exactly youre saying that you dont believe this number or that you do believe that the Unemployment Rate is broader and that number is includeded in the report . Thank you for that question kelly, because its real important to me. I dont think that the government is misleading us at all. I think that the number that comes out of bls and the department of labor is very very accurate. I need to make that very very clear so i dont suddenly disappear. I need to make it home tonight. So you dont disappear . Geez, all right. We hope that wouldnt be a followup. Anyway carry on. But i think its the way the number is being used. So gallup analytic teams they were trying to figure out where the middle class was. Looked into the gdp and, of course gdp, your audience is very astute. It hasnt moved in five years. Blended rate of five years is about 2. 2 . We went to jobs. We said i keep reading in good papers the wall street journal, the financial times, and the president tells us that unemployment is the best its been in ten years. Okay. Theres one side of it. Our concern with our analysts is that its very very misleading because what america really wants are fulltime jobs. Okay. 30plus hours but here is the point, the misleading point. The percent of fulltime jobs in this country to the population is the worst its been in 30 years, and although you have an astute audience when youre at dinner ask people about this, nobody knows that number. Thats why the middle class is hollowed out. So, diane, first of all, what does that mean in terms of the true job picture and what do you think the true measure of this labor market is . Well i think its really important to get to the broader issue of the Household Survey and i think theres an important point that 3 5. 6 is not a decade ago. 5. 6 rate. Clearly its not. Weve gotten there for some of the wrong reasons, because people have literally stopped looking for jobs who are able and would like to work. And thats not something we want to discount those people. In fact, the Household Survey does look at them and thats why the Federal Reserve has said you know what . We dont want to focus on the summary statistic that the Unemployment Rate is because it is misleading right now in terms of how good the labor market is. Its better than it was. Gallups own poll show that is people are feeling better about the labor market and their ability to get a better job. Thats good news but its not as good as it could be and weve not regained the ground loss. If you look at u6 i think its important that it really is an 11. 2 Unemployment Rate down from 17 plus but well above what it was before that. What were seeing is that slack in the labor market and the underutilization out there and the situation with the middle class has been going on since the 1980s and its been a steady decline. When we hit 3. 9 Unemployment Rates in the 1990s, had a lot more people participating, all you needed was a pulse to get a job. I think its important that we saw all boats rise with the tide, not just the yachts. And people are not as discontent. I got to ask you a question. You talk about u6 and underemployment being at 11. 2 . My sense is and my calculations are its getting somewhere in the mid 9s before we start to see wage gain and do we see wage gain when that happens . Its a moving target on wage gain. I think its actually lower than that and i think the Unemployment Rate has to fall well below 5 given im talking about u6. What do i have to see u6 i think you have to see back below 9 . Below 9 . And i think were not going to get there we could get there in the next couple years but i think were going to see you need to see sustained wage when do you think we will get there . I dont think staend inustained inflation of 2 . The accurate number of bls reported is 48 , and thats the lowest its been in 30 years. Where its supposed to be is 52 . As soon as we go up 4 theres 250 million American Adults that gets you 10 million. As soon as we have 10 million real jobs and we need 20 million, but then i think wage gains i think everything will change. We can do that, too. But the way we portray the current economy and job situation, the gallup poll i think it bothers me because the people shouldnt be as positive on our poll as they are about jobs because its not that positive. But everything you read from the left to the right thats a good point because youre talking about quickly, sharon. Youre talking about i dont think what it says in the gallup poll is really critical in terms of how people feel about their job security. So are they feeling better . Youre poll seems to show they are more positive. Last word jim . Well, i think that theyre more positive but, remember none of them understand about unemployment. Next time at your dinner just ask people how is unemployment calculated . And theyll tell you that they think its off of actually filings for unemployment. I know the viewers of this show know this but almost nobody knows where that number comes from. But generally people are pretty positive but when you hear the president talk hell say that the jobs are the best theyve been in ten years, financial times, the economy, everybody says america is back and unemployment is the best its been. And i think that carries over and i think its wrong, too, because it leads voters it leads leaders they have wrong assumptions. The worse they make things because they dont have the right root cause. We do know that some of the sentiment about finding a job has turned up but, jim, to your point we would love it if you and your website would sart to put that total number. You said we need 20 million fulltime jobs. I would love to see a running tally on your website. Its on there now. I want to adjust that for retirement. Now i know what im doing during the next break. Thank you both for being here. Really appreciate it. Coming up investors are all atwitter. Tomorrow the social media trendmaker reports earnings amid investors kerns over slowing use or growth. Well have a review of results coming up. But first, well look behind millions of tweets to see what makes for a happy tweet and a happy tweeter. And why retailers are using that data to know when it try to sell you stuff for real. Thats next. Welcome back. If you take to social media to air out our feelings youre probably getting some extra attention from marketers. Companies are looking for happy tweets and happy people to know when to pitch you to buy something. Its all explained in an article heating up cnbc. Com. The author eric chemi, joins us along with our panel for more. Welcome. Thank you. What makes for happying tweets tweets and how are Companies Finding these people. A company analyzed a million tweets going back a calendar year. You look at how people use language to describe their day, their job, their friends, their family so they can factor out men versus women, factor out what countries are the happiest what states are the happiest what cities are the happiest. Not surprisingly, denver colorado, the happiest city the happiest state. Probably marijuana is helping these people be happy. But if you look at some of the worst, unhappy places like louisville, kentucky and boston massachusetts, and ft. Worth, texas, places people arent generally that happy. But why it hatters is that even true . America is the 41st ranked country out of 52 so generally not that happy of a place. This is why it matters. Because companies will change the language of their tweets and how they sell products to people. So, for example, if you wanted to buy ugg boots maybe in a happy place they talk about why you might like ugg boots but in a sad place they might talk about why you hate the weather. So the language would change depending on the type of customer is it working . Is it leading to better returns for these companies . It is leading to better returns. Thats why youre seeing caps like brand watch spending their time analyzing it because they give it to their clients to figure out how to change what theyre saying and when to say it. So for example, weekdays versus weekends, you sell things like food, basic things on week days, but on the weekend people think about changing their life you sell them insurance, education, new jobs. I thought it was interesting in your article, theyre looking at what the tweets are on an individual day vorersus over time. That scared me theyre looking at what i tweet over a period of time. How does that change where you market . Theyre looking at how people describe their day. We might say i had a great day today versus how you think about your life. So you might think i had a bad debut miy life is great. Thats the type of difference that theyre looking at to figure out. So, folk men and women talk about their life equally, but men are much more likely to talk positively about an individual day. When we have katy perry, Justin Bieber taylor swift, and president obama as the top four tweeters, tell me how this translates into business. Last word. It translates into business because these are the people who are buying stuff. Think about all the people buying katy perry albums and itunes downloads and we just saw that partnership that dom was talking about a few minutes ago. Thats a real customer base. Puck improve your revenues by 1 , think about what that does for earnings. Eric thank you. Thank you. Eric chemi being here this afternoon. Disney world may be getting new attention in florida. Foreign investors are buying shares of half a billion amusement property in miami in exchange for u. S. Visas. Diana olick will take us on the wild ride 450i7ndbehind it all next. Startupny. Its working for new york state. Already 55 companies are investing over 98 Million Dollars and creating over 2100 jobs. From long island to all across upstate new york, more businesses are coming to new york. They are paying no property taxes no corporate taxes no sales taxes. And with over 300 locations, and 3. 7 million square feet available, theres a place thats right for your business. See if startupny can work for you. Go to startup. Ny. Gov. Amusement parks are not known for their subtlety and a new one for miami is a sky scraper in the middle of downtown miami and foreigners can buy into it in return for visas. Diana olick has more on this plan. Reporter the 430 million tower plan is under way on this site by the biscayne bay. They are laying some of the ground work but really the focus is now on fundraising, not here in miami but overseas in china and dubai where investors are hoping to get in on the ev 5 immigration program. That is if they have 500,000 to spend. Half a million to get there. Now sky rise miami is the brain child of miami investor jeff berkowitz. It is stunning in virtual form. It will have a sky drop ride where you can plunge at 95 miles an hour with 11 of your best friends. Its a bungee jump like thing and a viewing platform that dangles you over the city. Venture capitalists are seeing huge demand. The program is a jobs program and this project has been approved for it. Miamidade has put 900 million into the project. Jeff berkowitz is going to put 30 million of his own into it. Critics dont think there will be enough tourists coming to this site to make a profit for any of the investors. Critics say it could end up costing taxpayers in the end but berkowitz says he expects to see millions of tourists 3. 2 million coming here and this will be a profitable site in the end. He gave me a model of what the tower will look like. I think it looks like a hair pin. Someone thinks it looks like an l and the ceo of related things it looks like an r. And berkowitz things it looks like a money clip. Thank you diana. Diana olick this afternoon or that incredible project. Its been a busy week for earnings and the momentum pushes into tomorrow. Well hear from twitter, go pro and linked in. The panel with what they are expecting and what theyre watching tomorrow when we come back. Closer look. It works how you want to work. With a Fidelity Investment professional. Or managing your investments on your own. Helping you find new ways to plan for retirement. And save on taxes where you can. So you can invest in the life that you want today. Tap into the full power of your fidelity greenline. Call or come in today for a free oneonone review. Welcome back. An earnings update for you, 21th century fox is trending lower after posting their results. On the Earnings Call the Company Announced it is lowering its guidance for 2015 to the lower end of the mid single digit range before the guidance was to grow in the high single digit percentages. Chase carry saying there are two issues foreign currency and broadcast advertising, a short fall that was too big to offset. Thanks very much. Just a Quick Response here fx thats a macro issue. Broadcast advertising is what i think i heard her say. That is a big problem for the industry, given the ratings are poor and the alternatives. The stock was down enough in the print they only needed a good number. But guidance is overwhelming. Is that going to hurt the whole space . Cbs is the one i would take a look at. They took on espn. Good luck. Its going to take them a while. What do you mean . Fox is investing in their networks. But that is not broadcast. If they are talking about broadcast advertising that is the core fox. But they are putting money into their sports networks. That will be great no one dvrs a sports program. To stephanies point about looking at fundamentals and dividends its important to look at both. Its exciting to see the increase in the dividends. But the earnings are going to be less robust, that is something to pay close attention to too. But dividend paying stocks is something that investors are continuing to hold on to them in the volatility but the fundamentals are going to play a role. What is the biggest thing tomorrow for the market . It will be twitter after the close basically because the stock is up 13 on the year and they have to crush it on maus and i dont think they will. You can watch closing bell tomorrow. Appreciate it. Fast fast coming up in a few seconds with melissa lee and the gang. All the after hours action and everybodys focused on underarmor right now. But we have the ceo of a small cap Sports Equipment company that is up 62 in the past 12 months. Got to hear this. Over to you guys. Fast fastmoney starts right now. A lot of breaking earnings news in the last hour. The yum stock is up after taco bell performed well for the Fast Food Company well bring you the latest on yum, green mown an and underarmor. And well debate it and show you the extreme lifestyle. We start off with the top story, crude has moved more than 7 three of the last four sessions. Oil