For investors. We begin with the first trading day of february. Heres where we stand. The dow has made a triple digit move for the ninth straight day. Volatility continues way off the lows of the day. Down by more than 100 early on. But thats where we sit. Dow is down 50, 16,416. And go far right of your screen there, the look at crude oil, which is getting crushed today. It is down 5 , just shy of 32 a barrel. Tom barrett, good to see you again. Hi. The backdrop doesnt look good. Its bumpy, everything you have been talking about the last couple weeks, very little transparency, tremendous nervousness, a rush to liquid y liquidity. China, qe, japan, europe, all things that we knew and were priced in all of a sudden cause even a more sudden return to liquidity. And that heads the hedge funds. So redemptions are increasing at an exponential pace, and that has an effect on everything. Its a great time for us. Its a moment to look at really illiquid alternatives in a meaningful way. You think were overdoing it . A way you answered that question, we knew about this stuff, it was priced in, but now were having more of a fit about some things that we should have already known about. Well, look, its a gigantic macro question im not equipped to answer. So the way we look at t its impossible to make long term decisions in building businesses on short term cycles. So is it overdone . We fixed the banking problem. So there is no there is no liquidity issue in the banks. The banks have at least not u. S. Banks. Yeah. And european banks on a different level. So the opportunity for distress in europe is something else. But at home, the capital has increased by 50 over the last six years. The problem is controlling growth. So the illiquidity isnt in the banks, but moves someplace. So the question is, where is it . Right . Where does that vault of illiquidity lie, and as investors are running to a flood of liquidity, what happens . What instruments are within the system that could cause havoc . And in our industry, if you took the global credit industry, credit is probably the best risk adjusted investment at the moment. Because when they threw the baby out, they threw all the babies out. And within that bath water, tremendous opportunity. Youre looking at blackstone trading at 10 returns. You have ex term vdcs at 13 or 14 . Mortgage reits trading at midte midterm, long term assets, theyre not subject to those cycles. Real estate has always been subject to supply demand. In the lowgrowth environment, its fine. A 2 growth was nirvana in a way, because it stopped overbuilding. In 2008, we had overbuilding and these Nuclear Disaster derivative instruments. It doesnt exist any more. Everything is filled up. Europe, on the other hand, has the other opportunity, right . So farming debt in europe when you buy something at 60 cents down and its half full, and you underwrite it to a 16 yield and then you fill up that building and get to a 25 yield with a little bit of leverage, then you get rental growth three or four years later and get to 35 returns. Thats a pretty interesting business. But you cant do it on a prompter or meter. Lets bring in our first guest and continue the conversation. Adam parker, equity strategist, a 2175 target on the s p this year. Adam, welcome back. How are you . Good. So we put a lousy month in the books. Here we go with a new month, starting with data for the u. S. Economy. Is the worst over for the stock market or not . Well, i think its hard to call, but i do think that a higher probability of a recession in the u. S. Is in the prices than i think is realistic. I think the market is down too much. And the reason is, i dont think earnings have been impaired that much. And youve got a lot of stocks that are down, you know, 20, 30 . So im definitely more optimistic than i was two or three months ago about u. S. Equities. Guys, lets kick this around. Should investors be more optimistic, pete, than the price averages of the market would tell you they are . Probably. I mean, i think ann would agree, the biggest thing people are trying to grapple with are the lack of growth and are we going to see the growth. We see it in the earnings, adam, but what were not seeing is revenue. So is that something concerning to somebody like you as you look ahead and try to figure out where the s p is headed . Obviously, you need Revenue Growth. Im a little bit confused about, you know, the whole consumer versus manufacturing sector. I dont think youre going to see Revenue Growth in the manufacturing side, so im not as worried about that. I think you do need on the consumer side. But you guys know this well. What matters even more for stocks than revenue is margin expansion. And to the extent you have another quarter here where youre seeing about inline revenue with expectations but 4, 5 earnings expectations, it means margins are still in a lot of areas of the market hanging in better than people thought. I thought the earnings season was decent enough to assuage some of the fears. And i do think of the some of the more acute part of the down turn is behind us. You guys dropped a note essentially saying go big or go home when it comes to stockpicking, right . What we do is look at all the stocks that are 100 billion market cap or larger. A lot of times, people arent really focused on those. The biggest 42 stocks theres 42 stocks in the u. S. , 8. 6 trillion market cap. Thats half the s p. And a lot of managers i talk to dont think they can generate alpha or think i cant gather assets saying i own ticker abc, a big company. We did some work showing you can generate alpha there, and systemic ways to do it so thats the advice were giving clients this morning. Heavily financial led dock. Bank of america, jpmorgan, citi are the ones that adam says his team at Morgan Stanley says you should be betting on. Well, you look at them in the first few weeks of the year, these stocks are down 20 . And adam, what we got last week, of course, was that gdp as anemic as anybody could have unfortunately expected. So are they wrong . I think we were worried, judge, they were going to overshoot. That the fed thats the they im talking about. Are adams and the picks here ones you agree with or disagree with . I agree with, but i dont think that were going to see the rapid acceleration, the four, for instance the dot plots saying we were going to see four rate hikes. Its a matter of time, adam before the fed gets a dose of reality. Thats hard to say about people, obviously so deeply versed in reality. On the other hand, there is nobody thats betting in this trilliondollar debt market, virtually nobody. That thinks theyre going to see four rate hikes this year. But the fed was still saying that. So after friday, i think theyre going to have to come back, walk that back and say that, you know, whether its that theyre sending fisher out or bullard or whomever they are, theyre going to have to get the message out there that were not going to see four rate hikes, because thats one of the markets were so concerned about. How about the fed backing off . You know, not as much as you think. I think whats priced in is Something Like 1 to 1. 5 hikes this year. I agree with you, the fed is not representing the reality of what people are participating in markets think is realistic. This club is a threeyear outlook. So were not really focused so much on the next month or two in the fed action. I do think your broader question, though we think earnings are going 4 this year, on top of that a 2. 2 net buyback. And about a 2 dividend yield. That would be 8 total return for the s p. After that, you guess at what happens to the multiple. I think with sentiment so low, with expectations so low, people may look around and say 8 total return is pretty good. And i think u. S. Could turn out to be a better place to invest and all the reasons of the world as the year unfolds. I think thats the view we heard from lee cooperman, 7 total return. Adam, i appreciate you coming on. Well talk soon. Take care, scott. Adam parker at Morgan Stanley. Is the worst in the market . You think things get materially better or we go back and have some damage done . I still dont know what its going to do on a daytoday basis. Frankly, there is also risk. The market seems to be technically driven. I dont believe that much technicals. I look at fundamentals. I look at some of the fundamentals like whats happening in health care. I like them. So if you look at the ibb, that thing has gotten crushed, draded down 400. Right now 263. Some people still suggest you fade any pop you get. Well, if you trade in the ibb, thats true. If you trade underlying securities, like mature biotech, yielding less, or im sorry. Trading at a pe much less than big cap phrma and exponentially more growth, with product lines already there, you want to own them. So as tom said, the baby is being thrown out with the bath water all of the time. There are some values there. However, you just cant buy the market. Youve got to pick your spots. And when china comes out like they did, and they report yet another purchasing manager index declining to by the market numbers, i would say the market held up fairly well. So the banks to me, i like them. I own citi, i think theyre incredibly cheap. But until we get the energy book straightened out and what the Energy Exposure is, which i think is diminishous, i dont think they lift. Tom, you made a statement that the baby was being thrown out with the bath water. But in were talking about a lot of different areas. High yield, for example. You see opportunity in a space thats gotten a lot of conversation for the damage thats been done there relative to energy and a lot of other places . Sure, its probably high yield in general. Commodities in oil and gas is probably the single largest opportunity that we have seen for pricing arbitrage since 2008. Is that right . Yeah. But its got to be curated. So if you look for me as a contrarian, if i look and say, okay, ive got to be in an efficient market. How can i compete with monster options, right . Its not going to happen. Its just not going to happen. Too much information, transparency, homogeneous exchanges, everybody is trading on the same information. Curated pioneering into these highyield instruments, if you have the resolution strategy and the guts to loan to own, is the greatest distortive opportunity there is today. Ive heard from mark laz re sat in the very seat youre sitting and saying it was the opportunity of a lifetime if you have the guts to do it and the time horizon to wait. And hes been one of the kings at the industry. Worked for bob bass. Hes the best at being able to have the fortitude to drive through. You would agree with that kind of 100 . And look, mining in oil in gas, if you looked at the contrarian its difficult to find the contrarian theme. Everybody is running to liquidity, everybody has the same information and everything is core rated. So oil, which was supposed to be low correlation ends up week onetoone. Reits. We talk about credits or mlp ands ask you look at reits and its supposed to be co variance. What happened . Right . Everything is related. Its one of the few areas thats not. So you look at the mining stocks, the big ones, are unbelievable. Fall and equity mark cap and debt trading at 50 cents. Diamonds, gold, copper going nowhere. All of us are in these nano seconds of baby step monitoring. We have to be aware of some of the leverage in terms of debt. You mentioned all those names and when you look at those names, were talking about massive debt to equity, correct . Huge. Glen core. Right. And the problem is whats inside the box and is it repo debt. If you have short term is your asset liability mismatched . Thats whats freaking the market out. But for great guys like lazer, you can see the Balance Sheet and match asset. Lets take a quick break and come back. Much more with tom bar rec. Coming up, twitter is on a tear today. Is there a white knight in the wings . Get ready to should you buy the social Media Company . Plus, our call of the day is a downgrade for highend retail. How slow growth and trouble in china are lathers the luxury markets. And dejavu all over again. Youve got to come back with me where . Back to the future lots of stocks are back at levels we havent seen since 2014. Are they better the Second Time Around . Youre watching cnbc. First in business worldwide. Theres a lot of places you never want to see 7. 95. [ beep ] but youll be glad to see it here. Fidelity where smarter investors will always be. If only the signs were as obvious when you trade. Fidelitys active trader pro can help you find smarter entry and exit points and can help protect your potential profits. Fidelity where smarter investors will always be. Welcome back to the halftime report. Breaking news. Its officially over. The cdc closing its investigation to the e. Coli outbreaks linked to chipotle. Closing both ecoli outbreaks. The investigation was unable to identify the contaminated food or ingredient that caused this outbreak that affected more than 50 people in multiple states. And that the most recent illness reported to the cdc started december 1st of 2015 so two months ago today. If you look at shares of chipotle, theyre up more than 4 . And chipotle also offering a statement, saying theyre closed the cdc has concluded its investigation and that in light of this investigation over the last couple months, they have taken these measures to increase their food safety. So we get this news, the cdc closing its investigation into the ecoli outbreak tied to chipotle. A little more than 24 hours before the Company Comes out with its earnings Quarterly Earnings tomorrow after the bell. Scott, over to you. Morgan, thanks. We see the stock moving green light to buy the stock now . I think this is something we have been waiting for. We have talked for a long time, how long before we stop getting news stories causing the negatives. Youve got it now. And that would be one reason to be excited about this stock. That does not mean, despite this w big fall, though, this becomes an incredible play. When you look at valuation, it still is rich it got cheaper. Still cheaper than six months ago, steve. Well, when it loses momentum, momentum cuts both ways. Then you get close to, okay, whats reality . My guess is it consolidates i dont think anybody is running in. Cdc made the claim, but you still dont know. And what you worry about, of course, when cdc is looking at it, judge, was there a coverup by the company . Is there criminal liability and so forth . And the fact that this is as morgan just detailed, not being not moving ahead with that investigation, that theyre satisfied, thats a positive for the company. So you should see more lift, because of that. Lets mover on to twitter. That stock jumping at this hour on speculation that a deal could be in the works. News website, the information reporting today that private equity group silver lake and Mark Andreessen have looked at buying the company. The stock up more than 8 now. But pete, it was up by better than 10. Right. Early on today. Although it did take a dip and now we see it swoop back up over 1. This is a very, very strong move. Everybody has been speculating for a long time, who would be potentially a suitor . Would it be google, facebook . Theres all kinds of different names that come out all of the time. Pretty interesting to see the names coming up now, private equity and Mark Andreessen with some interest. There is ways they could see you can understand, when you look at what that quarter was this most recent quarter from facebook and you see the ad spend, scott, theyve got to be drooling thinking theyve been stuck and have to find growth. But ecommerce is something they havent even really attempted, quite frankly at twitter, and thats a direction they could go as well. And maybe these smart folks push them. And a new segment were calling new at noon. Suntrust told me a twitter deal is getting more likely, but with a bigger player like a google or a facebook, as has been long speculated, there was this notion in the story that a socalled pipe deal may be considered where private investors buy a piece of public equity through new shares being issued. He told me that was, quote, odd. Quote, unquote, odd. That a larger strategic they dont need the capital. Right. Martin certify rely was on squawk box and he went through his numbers and said he pace google in advertising 3 to 4 billion a year. Facebook a billion. And these guys went from 150 to 2 and a quarter. He doesnt view them as branding. He views it more as pr. So that could get a much lower multiple. To me, translates to the value. Do you buy this stock simply for the takeout possibility . There are a lot of people doing that, judge. The last time they did it, of course, was wednesday coming up on two weeks ago when news corp. Was rumored to be the buyer. The stock jumped on 70 million share turnover and then news corp. , of course, denied it. And the stock came right back down. Today we have only seen turnover of about 24 or 25 million. Thats about average turnover. So despite the fact the stock has hopped up over 18 like pete said and held in there, it doesnt have the same kind of oomph of it did back on the 20th. So a deal would need to be announced fairly soon or its just going to continue to filter back down. Any time you buy a stock only because you wait for a takeout offer, if youve done that every time with every rumor, youre going to be sweeping floors at one of toms properties. Thats a sure way to go broke. Sure maybe youre hopeful that a barrack comes in as part of a private equity group and looks at Something Like twitter. When you look at this situation, does it seem like the kind of private equity play that would make sense or has been suggested by the analysts and others that its a bigger player . Sure. I mean, silver lake is in that space. Nobody better at doing that. For traditional private equity, its a very difficult play. Its better taking long, dated, contractual flash cash flows that need to be in a private setting, breed them back to normalcy and then take them public which is not a twitter or a chipotle. I would rather be the triple net lease owner of the real estate than the burritos. Uhhuh. All right. Coming up, a downgrade for two highend retailers. Is there trouble brewing in the luxury markets . Our call of the day is next. And take a look at the s p sectors at this hour led by utilities, telecom, discretiona discretionary. One half of 1 percent. More after this. We were born 100 years ago into a new american century. Born with a hunger to fly and a passion to build something better. And what an amazing time its been, decade after decade of innovation, inspiration and wonder. So, we say thank you america for a century of trust, for the privilege of flying higher and higher, together. Welcome back. Our call of the day is a downgrade for tiffany and Restoration Hardware on rising headwind concerns. Were joined live now from new york city. Oliver, welcome. Thanks, scott. Look at your headline today or subtext. 2016 could be a year of reverse wealth effect on the highincome consumer. Youre making a stock market call in a sense, arent you . Yeah, we are more cautious on the highend consumer at large. Shes not having breakfast at tiffanys, might be getting hot dogs at costco. I would say the middle to lower income consumer is stronger here. And what we have seen across the space is a real sputter. Neiman marcus, saks, nordstrom. Comps have sputtered, as we run the numbers. We look at the correlation. Theyre about. 85 correlatesed to the s p 500. So you combine that with a stronger dollar, as well as a potential pause in chinese spending. Those are internal and external factors that are out of these companies control. We prefer costco and like tjx, as well. Purported strength, not enough to offset for the lack of touri tourism . That is true. And there are some great initiatives going on at tiffany. Tiffany has 500 million or more Free Cash Flow so youre looking at above a 6 yield. Good crm and management team. They have a new product called the tiffany t. Its a great product, however a lot of initiatives arent enough to offset the domestic caution as well as the external variables with purchasing power parity declining for tourism. Oliver, you mentioned some of the discounters, the tjx, roth stores. Im curious. Youve got a buy on coach and a 42 target. What is it about coach . Have they already gone past and are now starting to move to the upswing . Why is that a buy while youve downgraded the other two or three . Were excited about coach and sally beauty. We like selective recovery stories. We think the coach brand is back on track. It is anniversary easy compares. This is a brand that had problems. We think the new designers had more time to anniversary himself. And also the bottoms up analysis, makes sense to us. We were with the ceo last week and previewed product and we think theyre bucking the trend with certain initiatives such as snoopy which appeals to asian consumers as well as the coach demographic. That will work in outlet. We appreciate it very much. Thanks for coming on and talking about what we have made our call of the day. Oliver chen. Thank you. The highend consumer, whether its retail, real estate, which is your wheel house, how does it look . How do they look . I mean, location by location different. As asset class by asset class different. Would i rather own tiffanys or the hot dog stand, i would rather own tiffanys. Tiffanys has the best piece of real estate in the marketplace. And that contractual cash flow goes on for 20 years, whether the investor goes up and down. Condominium market in new york, we all have been saying is overheated. How many 15, 20, 25 million condos are available in a city like this when the work force has to live twoandahalf miles away to serve them. I think i just saw a story today in either one of the publications online or on twitter or wherever that this new, you know, grand Apartment Building in the city, 157, its a little difficult to sell 30 million apartments. Now youve got to give some away that are movein ready. Especially in the middle of the building. Poor developers the Development Cycle doesnt lend itself to any analysis because it takes three years to find a piece of land and two years to get it and three years to build it and two years to the time you get there, the cycle has changed six times. Which is what happened here. We caught the top of the russian, arab, chinese tech market. And then it went away. So i think l. A. A little bit of the same thing. The top end, San Francisco is the hottest Housing Market in the nation. But at the middle level, no delinquencies, no defaults. We own a Single Family rental business of 40,000 homes. Which is the average working mom and dad who have, you know, two kids, maybe their mom and dad living with them, 1300 a month in rent. 167,000 average house. Those people are struggling to increase their income level. So the barbell effect in the u. S. , when you have 30 million condos on one side and you have 110 Million People with 160,000 house buy or rent or multifamily multifamily has been off the map. So when you say whats happening with the highend, i think its a barbell like Everything Else in our society. Is there if you think there could be a correction in new york and l. A. And other markets, what kind of correction do you think we could be looking at . I dont think significant. I mean, its supply and demand. And these developers from new york are wellcapitalized, wellequitized. They can hold on and pay off their debt because they had early sales. Its a rebalancing. So the Condominium Market or condo market in brooklyn. Four years ago there were no apartments in brooklyn, so everybody builds, which always happens in real estate, because the lenders will lend the developers everything. The developers confuse cash flow with profit. So as long as they get the money, theyll spend it. And youll have 6,000 Apartment Units all coming to market at the same time. So it will take a while to absorb that. I dont think its critical at that time all. I really think its one of the better times ive seen in my career for the balance of supply demand almost everywhere in the u. S. Europe, a different question. But nobody is built. Since 2008, very little has been built. So you see hospitality being thrashed. Right . You could buy hospitality stocks at 70 of nav. At a 10 cap. Why would you buy a hotel at a for cap when you could buy hosted at 10 . Well make this the last point and take a break. From the residential stand point, as zelman would point out, how could you be at peak housing at a time where you have a housing shortage, because to your point, people havent built enough homes. You have 1. 5 million new households and houses being built. And the refinancing market for Single Family peaked in the last 30 or 60 days. But youve got a tremendous housing shortage, which is why multifamily is still a buy. All right. Coming up, facebook at an alltime high today as investors continue to cheer the companys blowout earnings . Is we get the read through after the bell tonight. And Warren Buffett keeps buying a big refiner. Does that mean you should . The topranked Energy Analyst weighs in and big oil ahead of exxons numbers. Plus caucus kickoff. John harwood is in iowa for the first votes for the 2016 president ial election will be cast tonight. John. After the break, were going two of the two kinds of numbers that matter most before the iowa caucuses. Thats the polls and campaign cash. Coming up next on fast money halftime report. Im sue herrera. Here is your cnbc news update for this hour. A suicide bombing near a Police Facility has killed ten people in kabul, afghanistan. At least 20 more were hurt. Witnesses say it happened near the gate to the National Civil order police. They say that the bomber walked up to the people, waiting to go through security, and detonated the explosives. The taliban has claimed responsibility. Cuban president raul castro is visiting france, the first trip by a cuban leader in two decades. Castro received a formal welcome and attended a state dinner with the french president. Today environmental officials in michigan will present federal officials with a new testing plan for the water supply in flint. The goal is to come up with a Reliable Health assessment for much of the leadcontaminated system by april 14th. That is when the current state of emergency ends. And finally, can you say mush . Well, the biggest dog sled race in the lower 48 states is under way in minnesota. The warmer than normal weather is making things harder for the dogs, unfortunately. More than 400 dogs and their mushers will be racing 38 3 miles and expected to finish wednesday. Thats the news update at this hour. Back to you guys. Sue, thank you very much. Sue herrera for us. We are hours away from the very first votes of the 2016 president ial election and cnbc chief washington correspondent john harwood is live in des moines, iowa. John, size it up for us. Well, scott, we have reached the point of the caucus campaigns where the big rallies are over. That was a sprint over the weekend. Candidates were running across the state. Today its time where candidates like Hillary Clinton in this video here visit their offices, get their picture taken, hand out doughnuts, encourage their organization, their volunteers. And there is a reason for that. Because this is the time where those organizations have to deliver the votes that they have accumulated over the course of their campaigning. You look here at the last des moines register, bloomberg poll of iowa. The iowa poll. You see Hillary Clinton has got a 3 percentage point lead over Bernie Sanders. But she has got to make sure that her supporters are turned out. Bernie sanders has aroused more enthusiasm, but the question is, whether he can do the same. Whether he can deliver his votes. On the republican side, donald trump with a fivepoint lead over ted cruz. Thats promising for him. Dont know if trumps organization is going to be as good as ted cruzs. Everyone is also looking beyond iowa, because weve got New Hampshire in eight days on february 9th and then a whole bunch of states in the south. South carolina and others beyond. So one question is who has got the cash to fight on. If you look on the republican side, ted cruz has got a Pretty Healthy 18 million. Thats more than marco rubio. Cant really talk about donald trump, because hes funding out of his own pocket. His cash on hand is in his own bank account. On the democratic side, thats where you get the really big numbers. 38 million for Hillary Clinton cash on hand reflecting her status. The odds on favorite. The establishment candidate. But Bernie Sanders with a very robust 27 million in cash. That reflects the wide enthusiasm hes aroused from small donors, saying i dont get my money from wall street, the millionaires and billionaires. Hes got a lot of young people, enthusiastic, small donors. But hes got to convert that into votes. John harwood, thank you so much with the latest for us from des moines, iowa. Okay. Mr. Barrack. You sold trump the plaza at one point. Are you buying what he is selling you now . Thats wellsaid. Its like reverse look, ive known donald for almost 30 years. And my summary of it is, hes one of the kindest and actually most humble friends that ive had. Hes one of the smartest and astute businessmen ive ever known. And he has a proven track record of having all of the attributes that most candidates running for any political position aspire for. He already has celebritiship. He already has power. He already has proven he can build constituencies of every kind. And new york city being the most difficult unions. City officials, state officials. Tenants. Lenders. All the attributes of those things. And i have so much respect for him, because at this point in his career, wandering into that millure was not easy and he has changed dialogue of the debate. Regardless of what happens, its the greatest thing for america thats happened in 30 years. And coming from california, i remember as a young man, i was a Ronald Reagan aficionado. People said, are you kidding me . Ronald reagan, an actor from california, from a nonivy league school, its never going to happen. He and Maggi Thatcher probably changed the free world as we knew it, because he could read a script. He had great people. So donald, as far as i can see, has made a payroll, has been on the recipient of a payroll, built constituencies. He knows how to get things done. This flack with the muslims, he has arab partners. And im a lebanese catholic, so i grew up with sunnis and shias and drews and mexicans. You have 1. 6 billion muslims, and in the midst of this, what he has done is not as harsh as people interpreted. Hes creating a dialogue to have a discussion. And my view is, if lightning struck, if it actually happened, he would be the first to build constituencies with all of the arabs and all of the muslim communities, in a constructive way. Not in a destructive way and the same with mexico. He just comes from a different place. So im enthusiastic about his opportunity. I think as a human being ive known his kids since you just look at those kids. And you look at the kids spouses. Its unbelievable. So youre clearly supporting him. Do you think he can win . I actually do. Because i think america is at the point where were tired of seeing normal working class people have to use an emergency room for their health care. Or the inability of normal people to go to public school. Or the confused Foreign Policy we have all over the world, which leaves us all wringing our hands as to what were doing. And i think america is ready to say, why dont we approach running america like you would approaching running a business and give somebody an opportunity who is not just feeding them bs every minute. So whether you like it or dont like it, what youre getting is unfiltered and raw from a guy writing his own checks. I think thats novel. All right. Coming up, the inside scoop on how amazon and netflix are disrupting the traditional media companies. Tom barrack gives his view there. Plus the abc of alphabets earnings. The key numbers our own experts will be watching for. You are watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. The halftime report, with scott wapner, is the place for marketmoving interviews. Twitter surging now, but down 50 . Should twitter go private . And alphabet, the last of the socalled fang stocks. Shares are higher. Should you be buying ahead of the numbers . And a 10 drop in the s p, a rise from these levels. Power lunch at the top of the hour. More halftime after this break. Im here at the Td Ameritrade trader offices. Steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on . Let me show you. Okay. Our thinkorswim Trading Platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place and lets you visualize that information for any options series. Okay, cool. Hang on a second. You can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. Impressive. Whats up, tim. Td ameritrade. All right. Big earnings on deck from bp, exxon and conocophillips. Joining us on the phone is the number one rated Energy Analyst, Doug Terreson of evercore isi. Good to speak with you. I appreciate you calling in. After chevron, i dont know how optimistic i should be about exxon. Whats the answer to that question . Well, you shouldnt be overly optimistic in first half, but therein lies the opportunity as well. And i think investors are focused on three things right now. And, you know, one is that the major retrenchment phase that everyone is undergoing, theyre slashing their operating and capital costs because Big Oil Wants to cover dividends and smaller ones want to survive. Secondly, in pass down terms, we had major consolidation with the big oil creating value by purchasing smaller entities and thats important because thats often a marker for bottoms and Commodity Industries like this one. And finally, scott, it starts and ends with oil prices. Last week we had enthusiasm created on rumors of cooperation between saudi arabia and russia. But there are a lot of obstacles to that outcome. Were optimistic than others might be, that a breakthrough is nearing on coordinated reduction and output. Still focused on the big oil. Sounds like youre telling me oil will go lower. The other day after chevron, fidel gate, well known analyst, said of chevron, its deaf deivis at risk. Do you see it that way . Is exxons dividend at risk and if oil goes lower and stays there now for even longer at one point would they be at risk . We dont think the dividends are at risk. And besides bp and chevron and other dividends are not at risk. We think theyll follow the same script that chevron followed and basically what that means is theyre going to cut operating costs and cut capital costs and if it means production declining by 5 to 10 , thats whats going to happen. The dividend is important to these companies because it is the majority of their proposition. We think they survive. We think were nearing a major consolidation phase which will allow them to transform themselves during this downturn. Who is most likely to do a big deal . We think they all will do a big deal. There are great opportunities for these companies and we think winners and losers will be determined by the activity for years to come. And this is the first half year 2016 phase. Appreciate it very much. Youre welcome. Fire up the delorean. Were going back in time with many stocks back to early 2014 levels, does this signal a great buying opportunity . Cnbcs Senior Market commentator Michael Santoli joins us. If you can get s p 500 today at a level it first reached 21 months ago, where were at right now, at the january lows, we were at levels first reached in december of 2013. So the numbers are 44 previous instances when you could buy the s p at exactly that circumstance. And you are up all but five of those times. 89 of the time on one and three year basis after that the market was up. It was up more than typical when the market does actually rise in subsequent year. It looks like it has been a decent buying opportunity. Obviously, this is not the sole reason to trade the market now. It creates the backdrop. The big take away is this market is flattening out for a long period of time. By the time the market was down, 10 , 12 , you were not going that back far in time when you were also at those levels. I have, steve, had, you know, big investors tell me for the first time in a long time, the market looks cheap for them. I would say it is reasonable now. Slightly above what the historical average is. For the first time there is value. Some stocks in bear market territory for years. Were looking at certain areas, we like the mlp sector but it is fraught with risk. Got to be very, very careful. But if you take some quality names, starbucks, i bought when that fell down, after the earnings, i think thats a quality you can find branded names out there, and then some of the retailers, thats a little dicier. Under armour, so message is that the defensive market right now and you want to buy brands. What do you think of san tollys report and what you see yourself . It is curious. You look at the dow stocks and thats his focus, and look at basically ten of the stocks, youre talking about somewhere in material, somewhere in energy, you can understand why theyre down as much as they r i think a few names, you bring up starbucks, as some of the names get sold off with the rest of it and everybody says babe ruth to bath water, whatever the expression, there are names of value. Lululemon, when it got under 50, now 62, you brought up under armour, big move there, there are names where if they continue to have quality earnings reports, those are names you want to have. Were back after a quick break. We get your game plan ready for googles earnings after the bell. Opportunities arent always obvious. Sometimes they just drop in. Cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. We enable you to reach Global Markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. Cme group how the world advances. All right, talk some google. Reports after the bell, pete, stocks up 44 over one year. Cra cramer this morning on tv said it is inexpensive. I think this is one of the many companies, youll see the revenue number be strong as well. You put that combination together, i think the only other element we want to look now is margins. How are they doing marginwise. I think this thing actually does have plenty of room to the upside. I agree with jim. Doc, quick. What. What you got going on with youtube and facebooks focus on video helps google, doesnt hurt them. Also, judge, i think youll see this hyperloop that elan musk talked about, now google is doing the same thing with this project sky bender. I think thats another big thing to focus on. I dont have a lot of time left. Given youre chairman of mare max, i want to askou about the oscars controversy. What is your opinion of the controversy itself, only white actors and actresses in the top four categories. You have a problem with that . I think everybody has a problem, right, when you look at what is happening in media and entertainment, it is a revolution. Intellectual property is like real estate was in the 20s or 30s. Over the top is changing. Everything, netflix versus traditional distributors changed the fabric. And underneath it all, some really talented people have to tell the story. And as a group, that people represents all of us. So the bottom line is, what should be representative and hasnt been of independent film producers, which are now having a new gauge is a broader view of that Creative Community and that should be more diverse than it is. Tom, appreciate you being here. Power lunch begins now. Thank you very much. And welcome, everybody, to power lunch with melissa lee, michelle carusocabrera, brian sullivan, im tyler mathisen. We begin with how about that . How about that . We begin with breaking news from the fed, Steve Liesman is here with the headlines. Steve . Thank you, melissa. Fed vice chair stan fisher speaking on market volatility, inflation and interest rates. He says further Oil Price Declines and