analytics at abc news, senior journalist for the economist, and the author of "strength in numbers: how polls work and why we need them" and we'll get to the data in a moment. the intangible, the weather is going to be cold. to me that says whoever has the most passionate base is going to come out and provide victory for their candidate. your thought? >> yeah, look, it's going to be minus 20, minus 30 wind chill in iowa. i do expect that that will have some impact on the race. we can expect, in other words, some level of polling error, i would suspect, just because you've brought up the historical data, michael, i'll just cite there's usually a five percentage point difference between now a candidate is polling and the actual share of the vote that they get. so there's some precedent for surprise. you add on top of that this nasty weather. i expect, as you say, that the