Transcripts For CSPAN CIA 20240704

Public servant, along with these other television providers, giving you a front receipt to democracy seat to democracy. The cia director discusses Global Security challenges at 2023 Aspen Security Forum in relation to russias invasion of ukraine. He believes ukraine will make advances. Director burns was interviewed by mary louise kelly. Ms. Kelly bill burns. Good to see you. Welcome back to aspen. Dir. Burns it is nice to be with you and nice to be back at aspen. Ms. Kelly are you ready . Russia. Just happened. When you were watching events saturday, june 24, what was your understanding of what was unfolding . Dir. Burns i have seen, over the last three decades, since the end of the cold war, a lot of fascinating episodes in russia, but nothing more than fascinating as for goshens mutiny which was the most direct assault in putins 23 years in power. I think in many ways it exposed some of the significant weaknesses in the system that putin has built. Weaknesses that had been laid bare by the deeply destructive war that putin launched in ukraine what was remarkable which is almost a month ago today after the mutiny was launched was the way in which putin felt compelled to do a deal with his former what was equally remarkable, if you look back at the 36 hours that proceeded the deal proceeded the deal, it began a month ago today and the morning of russian time, with a 30 minute video that prizoghin put on telegram, which is a channel that more than a third of the russian population is active on. In that video, it was the most scathing indictment of putins rationale for war, the conduct of the war, of the corruption at the core of putins regime that i have heard from a russian or nonrussian. It was bitterly critical of the conduct of the war by the Russian Military leadership, by the defense minister and the general, the chief of military staff. It took head on putins rationale for war, it was built on lies that there was no imminent threat to the russian homeland or people, from ukraine, or nato. It was scathing in its description of the corruption with which animates the russian elite today, which is ironic given the fact that prizoghin himself had profited as much as anyone from the corruption. It was remarkable to see. What was equally remarkable was what transpired in those 36 hours after the video. Ms. Kelly you called it a mutiny, was it an attempted coup . Do we know what prizoghin was trying to do . Dir. Burns we President Biden put it distinctly, when he said we new things ahead of time. I will not go into more detail. Prizoghin was making some of this up as he went along. Clearly, his main targets, a lot of this had been hiding in plain sight, he had been scathing in his public criticism of both of them. It came as no surprise when he decided to take action. Ms. Kelly how wounded is putin . Dir. Burns i think, if you think about the comment i made before about exposing the weaknesses in putin systems, what i meant is that putin in many ways has constructed his image, which has been carefully cultivated and his grip on power around the notion an image that he is the arbiter of order in russia. What has that meant with the wider russian public is a social contract in which his message is you stay out of politics, it is my business. What i will offer in return is rising standards of living and i will not get into your personal lives. With russia it has been a social contract, you follow my lead in politics. What i will ensure and return is protection from external threats, from one another, and also that everyone gets a feed at the trough, everyone gets to share in the spoils in a deeply corrupt system. What i have seen in those 36 hours as the mutiny was unfolding, you have the spectacle of the wagner forces, prizoghins mercenaries, is they have seemed unopposed in a city in russia, also the military quarters, the russian command in the ukraine, seized control of that significant city. Over the following day, get two thirds of the way up the road to moscow as well. As you think of those two social contract, what was going to the minds of a lot of russians and what we saw was the Russian Security services, russias decisionmakers which were adrift for those 36 hours. For a lot of russians watching this, get used to the image of putin is the arbiter of order, the question is, does the emperor have no clothes, or at least why does it take so long for him to get dressed . For the elite, what it resurrected was some deeper questions which, again, you have seen circulate within the Russian Elites since the war in the ukraine began, asking questions about putins judgment, about his relative detachment from events, and about his indecisiveness. Ms. Kelly are you saying ph fishers . Were sink deep cracks. Dir. Burns you are seeing signs of weaknesses in the system. I think those weaknesses have been exposed by prizoghins mutiny. Even more deeply, they have been exposed by putins misjudgment since he launched the invasion. Theres a relationship between the battleground in ukraine and what is going on inside of russia, in the sense that if and when the ukrainians make further advances on the battlefield, what that will do is cause more russians in the elite and outside of the elite to Pay Attention to prizoghins critique of the war. Thats where putin is trying to buy time. As he considers what to do with wagner and prizoghin himself. Putin, in my experience, he keeps the image that he is overreacting to things. He is trying to settle things. He will try to separate prizoghin from what is of value to putin in wagner. They have borne the brunt of the fighting in bakhmut, suffered the casualties there. 87 of the wagner forces were residents of russian penal colonies. They are useful to putin in africa, libya and syria. What he will try to do a separate prizoghin and undercut him, but preserve what is of value to him. Ms. Kelly President Biden recently said of prizoghin, if i were he, i would be careful what i ate. He also said we are not sure where he is. Do you know where he is . You saw the video that emerged that showed him in belarus, is that real . Dir. Burns he has moved around a bit. He has been in minsk. Im not sure he plans to retire in the suburbs in minsk. But he spent time in russia as well. What we are seeing is a complicated dance between prizoghin putin and putin. Putin is someone who thinks that revenge is a dish best served cold. He will try to settle the situation as best he can. In my experience, putin is the apostle of payback. Ill be surprised if prizoghin escapes for the retribution for this. In that sense, the president s right, if i was prizoghin, i would hire a food taster. Ms. Kelly how much freedom of movement does the general have . Dir. Burns i dont think a lot right now. [laughter] i dont think he enjoys a lot of freedom right now. Ms. Kelly the cia has taken the opportunity to make your first video post telegram to let brave russians know how to contact us safely on the dark web. Have they . Dir. Burns we had 2. 5 million views of that telegram video in the first week it was on. The truth is, there is a lot of defection in russia in the elite and outside of russia. Were not wasting any opportunity to try to take advantage of it. Ms. Kelly theyre also trying to recruit, is there a fair friendly rivalry . Dir. Burns yeah. The same objective right now. Ms. Kelly is part of the objective whether that leads to useful intelligence streams for you to make putin look over his shoulder, uneasy about who he can trust . Dir. Burns i think putin is a bit uneasy, as he looks over his shoulder, that is true. The debate that goes on within the russian elite right now. It would be crazy for us not to take advantage of what is a once in a generation opportunity, for the human Intelligence Service to take advantage of that. Ms. Kelly you are just in ukraine, how is the big counter offensive going . Dir. Burns it was a regular travel to ukraine, over the course of the last 18 months. It was a reflection of the significance that the president , everyone, the u. S. Government, attaches to hours or for what has been a courageous and tenacious ukrainian effort to fight back against putin and russia. Putin was fond of saying ukraine is not a real country. Real countries fight back. That is just what president zelenskyy and my intelligence counterparts have done. I dont think it should come as a surprise to anyone that the counteroffensive is a hard slog. Offenses harder than defense. The russians have had months to prepare not only fixed defenses in separation, zachary asia. I am an optimist that we are able to acquire and develop. That the ukrainians will be able to make advances. It is easy to forget that behind those considerable fixed defenses that the russians have built in southern ukraine in zaporizhzhia. There are structural weaknesses on the russian side and the disarray we were talking about and the political and end. It will be a tough slog. We will do everything we can as an Intelligence Agency to provide the intelligence support, ensuring it will help the ukrainians make progress. Ms. Kelly one thing that feels important to ask about. We seem to be talking about it less, less in the news, the possibility of a Nuclear Weapon being introduced in the war zone. Last year, you met with your russian counterpart. You have described that your orders were from President Biden to make very clear what the consequences would be if russia went down that path. President biden about the possibility was real enough that he dispatched cia agency to make sure did not happen. Are you less worried about that . Dir. Burns first, the nuclear say ford idling that putin has engaged in is a responsible. It is not something we can take lightly. We do not see any concrete preparations for the potential use of Nuclear Weapons. We have made clear in that conversation with sergey naryshkin, and through other channels that the depth the depth of our concern. It is important that president xi has spoken out about it as well, his voice is one that is difficult for the kremlin to avoid. We monitor it carefully. We do not see signs of preparations for nuclear use. Ms. Kelly how much more instability has been introduced to have russia pull out of the grain deal and increasingly expanding its attacks on the black sea . Dir. Burns it is deeply troubling first for ukrainians, what putin is trying to do is wreck the ukrainian economy and read havoc on wreak havoc on ukrainian citizens. It does damage on the most vulnerable societies, africa and the middle east, who depend on the green shipments. Over the last several days, putin has made an effort, its about three nights in a row of intensive attacks in other port cities against grain storage facilities. As the white house made clear earlier today, we see some very concerning signs of russia considering the full slide operations, that we highlighted in the runup to the war. Looking at ways to which they may make it to shipping in the black sea and blame it on ukrainians. Ms. Kelly why is iran arming russia . Dir. Burns i think the Defense Partnership between russia and iran is a useful two way street. Ms. Kelly what is iran getting . Dir. Burns we have seen signs of the russians russian technicians working on the Space Launch Program in iran. Weve seen discussion of the possibility of the russians providing combat aircraft to iran, which expands the threat from the innocent ukrainian civilians. I have seen this on my own visit to kyiv, 136 is and iranian trolls have been used against weapons have been used against ukrainians. It increases threats to our friends in the region as well. Its a twoway street. Thats what is most troubling about the Defense Partnership. Ms. Kelly speaking of cracks, speaking of fissures, your counterpart at mi six gave an interview in which he suggested that the drones are causing in turner internal turmoil in iraq. I rocks irans decision to supply russia has caused problems in tehran. Dir. Burns i will not add to what richard said in terms of the intelligence we collected of the iranian leadership. We have seen signs, where iranian leadership has hesitated about supplying Ballistic Missiles to russians, which was also on their wish list as well, partly because they are concerned, not just about our reaction but European Reaction as well. Dir. Burns ms. Kelly china, president xi has instructed his countrys military to be ready to invade taiwan by 2027. Whats your assessment of whether he will . Dir. Burns i think its been discussed publicly a lot, the instruction to be ready by 2027 means just that. It means to be ready. It does not mean conflict is inevitable. Ms. Kelly has he made up his mind . Dir. Burns i am not sure that he has. What it means that president xi and the Peoples Liberation Army Leadership have doubts about whether they could pull off a successful fullscale invasion of taiwan at acceptable cost to them. No foreign leader has paid more attention to putins experience in ukraine then xi has. That has reinforced some of the doubts too. Not only in the way, an objectively smaller military has had incredible success in fighting back with a great deal of motivation against a bigger military, but also some of the flaws in russian weapon systems. The fact that i think president putin and president xi underestimated the speed with which President Biden would put together a Strong Coalition and some of ukraine, the solidarity in ukraine, the solidarity of the west, all of that, gives pause to the chinese leadership. I dont think any of us underestimate president xis commitment to try to eventually control taiwan. Ms. Kelly do you have a sense of what would trigger it . What would the redlines be . Dir. Burns there is a lot of things, given the state of relations that could trigger that kind of movement. Today, i think, our effort is a government, this is a policy issue not an intelligence one is to do everything we can under the taiwan relations act to help taiwan defend itself, but also to make clear in policy channels at the same time that we are not interested in changing the status quo. We are across the taiwan state. We oppose any unilateral efforts to change that. We dont support chinese independence. We made it clear that we would oppose any use of force by the peoples republic of china to try to alter that status quo. Ms. Kelly if china were to make a decision to invade, would you have the same heads up from intelligence sources you did when putin made up his mind to invade ukraine . Dir. Burns that is something we work hard at. Im proud of the record of cia, and the Intelligence Community in providing credible and accurate warning on putins plans to invade ukraine. That is why the president sent me to moscow in november of 21, months before the war to layout what was an unusual step what we knew about his plans and what the consequences would be. We worked very hard as an agency, with all our partners in the Intelligence Community to put ourselves in a stronger position to advise the president and policymakers, if the day ever comes, of what we see being planned. Ms. Kelly i will push you on this. A decade ago, the cia rolled up china rolled off a lot of cia operations in china, a dozen or more cia sources were arrested or worse, executed. Have you rebuilt . Dir. Burns we have made progress. We are working very hard, to ensure that we have a strong human intelligence capability to complement what we can acquire through other methods. Ms. Kelly on the cyber front, the recent chinese hack of u. S. Government accounts, email accounts, microsoft says it went undetected for months. Was this chinese intelligence . Dir. Burns i would say several things. First day was the u. S. Government, not the white house that made clear that first detected those hacks, informed microsoft, which acted very efficiently in response to that. Microsoft has attributed this to china. We dont have any reason to doubt that. Ms. Kelly officially sanctioned, was this chinese intelligence . Dir. Burns i cant go beyond what i just said. Ms. Kelly within the realm of what is normal, the chinese will try to spy on the u. S. , or did you see it as an escalation . Dir. Burns i think the effort is not just the peoples republic of china, russia, iran, north korea anothers, to hack u. S. Symptoms systems has been going on for years, it is not new, but it is something we take seriously. The cias role is to collect all the intelligence we can and support the department of homeland security, the fbi and who are properly focused on protecting the United States domestic issues. Why do u. S. Government accounts keep getting hacked . All i can do is speak for the cia. We work very hard to protect accounts there and we work very hard with other agencies, plus domestic and other intelligence agencies, to ensure that we are not only sharp and focused on the issues, but sharing the intelligence we can acquire to help us not only better protect the u. S. Government unclassified accounts, in the case of the most recent hack, but also trying to do all we can to strengthen our cybersecurity. Ms. Kelly how are you feeling about Election Security in 2024 . Dir. Burns it is something we take seriously. Dir. Burns i dont doubt the determination of our adversaries to create problems in our election processes. The interagency coordination on those issues is a lot stronger than it was in 2016, even 2020. Ms. Kelly are you seeing red warning lights like we should have . Dir. Burns we are trying to anticipate those concerns right now so that we dont get to the point of red warning lights. We have organized ourselves with a new Mission Center which is one of the organizational building blocks, a dozen or so of them at cia, focused on a range of issues. I think helps us be a better partner for other u. S. Government agencies. Ms. Kelly i know you dont do politics. I know the cias mission is foreign focused, foreign threats. I wonder if the line feels blurry some days. What is the cias role if the greatest threat to our security is domestic politics . Dir. Burns we are a far we are a foreign agency, not domestic. We have tried to organize ourselves in a way where we can contribute to the better interagency coordination. The truth is, and who was here today expressed it well, given the challenges we face, sometimes the lines between domestic and foreign get blurred. The lines in terms of our responsibility are not blurred. We are a foreign Intelligence Service, but that means we have to work even harder and more effectively to ensure that what intelligence we collected in our role gets shared quickly and effectively with our domestic Law Enforcement partners. I think we are doing better at that and we have in years past. Ms. Kelly do you agree with that premise . I think richard haas, now president emeritus on the council of Foreign Relations has expressed this, the greatest threat to our National Security is us. Dir. Burns i travel a lot and i get the question from lots of foreign counterparts with political leaders or intelligence partners. They ask questions and they wonder sometimes about what appears to them to be our domestic dysfunction. As a matter of intelligence assessment, i would be crazy if i said that does not enter into the equation with some of our foreign partners. Ms. Kelly what do you tell them . Dir. Burns the great advantage a demo advantage of democratic systems as my experience as a citizen is that we are pretty good at addressing and fixing flaws. I think better than authoritarian systems. The proof is obviously in the actions we take. Not every action we take reassure his people. But i think that is the best and most honest answer to those challenges. In our role as an Intelligence Service, we try to demonstrate that we are an aPolitical Institution and we are committed to serving the best interests of the American People and building intelligence partnerships they can rely on and trust. Ms. Kelly you spent 32 years in the diplomatic service. You took over cia in 2021 . You inherited an agency whose officers had been maligned by their commanderinchief. Who suggested he believed Vladimir Putin over his own spy chief spirit has the dam spy chiefs. Has the damage been repaired . Dir. Burns my predecessor deserves a great deal of credit for shielding the a Political Institution that the men and women of the cia are proud to be a part of from a lot of the criticisms and challenges that came in the last administration. He would have to ask my colleagues, but i am deeply proud of the work our officers do. As we sit here this evening, doing very hard jobs around the world, the risks they take and sacrifices they make are not widely understood, nor should they be publicly but i am deeply proud of that end i think our officers take right take great pride in that as well. Ms. Kelly when you talk about the cia as an aPolitical Institution, you testified on the hill, traditional thinking has been intelligence is too important to be politicized. Through no fault of the many fine men and women serving in the cia, intelligence has been politicized. How do you think about that . Particularly leading up to another election cycle. Dir. Burns my obligation, and President Biden reminds me of this frequently, is to offer the best intelligence we can collect and analyze straight up. Even when it is inconvenient to policymakers. Ive spent enough time on the others to the table to know when it is inconvenient, when somebody tells you your big new idea is not big, new or effective. Our job is to be straight about that. Whether it is welcomed downtown at the white house for other parts of the executive branch were not. It is not an easy role to play, but it is an important one. It is one i take seriously and i know director haynes does and others across the Intelligence Community. That is what our officers do their best to provide. I want to draw everyones attention to a recent New York Times headline, for those who missed it, may 9, william burtons cia spymaster with unusual powers. Dir. Burns my daughters got a kick out of that. [laughter] ms. Kelly the most memorable line to my reading was the description of view as, a tall, discreet figure with wary eyes, ashen hair and a trimmed mustache. A sort you could easily imagine in a john the carry novel whispering into a dignitarys ear at a party that the city is falling to the rubble and a boat will be waiting in the harbor at midnight. [laughter] dir. Burns i am told. [laughter] ms. Kelly have you ever had occasion to whisper in a dignitarys clear that a boat will be waiting in the harbor . Dir. Burns i aspire to. Ms. Kelly were you tickled when you read that . Did they get it right . Dir. Burns tickled may not be the right word. [laughter] ms. Kelly is there any aspect of your job that is fun . [laughter] dir. Burns phone is a strong term. [laughter] dir. Burns i generally do enjoy it. I generally enjoy the women and men i work with. I am very proud of them. I learn something new every day. I am a curious person and in the world of intelligence theres lots of new things to learn everyday. I am concerned about my colleagues. I worry about those people doing hard jobs in hard places. Taking incredible risks. I feel like we are performing an important surface for service for our government and we work really hard at it. Not every day is fun. Some days are a little fun. I genuinely enjoy what i am doing and i am proud of the work colleagues are doing. Ms. Kelly i mentioned you spent three decades in the foreign service. You knew every world leader, you had dealt with them, you had if you were trying to design a crash course for the incoming cia director to understand the world, you have taken the course, you would be teaching it. I believe he once said moammar qaddafi is the creepiest. Dir. Burns it is a tight competition, but yes. [laughter] dir. Burns he was in a club by himself. Ms. Kelly knowing the issues and the people and the geography so well, does it look different from langley than it does from foggy bottom . The mission is fundamentally different, is it . Dir. Burns it is fundamentally different. Our role at cia is to support policymakers, not to be policymakers. That is something my colleagues and i understand clearly. Part of my job is to understand and navigate some very difficult landscapes. Using foreign languages, an understanding of history and culture. In that sense, there is overlap in the skill sets required. The professions themselves are complementary in some ways but fundamentally different too. As i said, that is one of the things i have enjoyed most, learning something new about a profession that i thought in all those years, almost three and a half decades, i thought i understood it well because i worked very closely with cia colleagues serving overseas. I know the intelligence they collected in the analysis they provided may be a better negotiator made me a better diplomat. I would like to think that my experience on the policy side of the tableland as a diplomat makes me wellequipped to understand what matters most to policymakers, and therefore, to make sure we are providing, at the pace it is required, the kind of intelligence that is going to make the biggest difference. Ms. Kelly many people in this room have stressful, intense, relentless jobs. Very few of us who have been dispatched by the president of the United States to tell russia , you may not use a Nuclear Weapon. This cannot happen. The consequences if you dont do a good job in being persuasive are unimaginable. How do you carry that responsibility . Dir. Burns i dont dwell too much on what you just mentioned. I try to focus on the challenge at hand. That is one place where having a lot of experience over the years does pay off. I trust the people i work with to help put me in the strongest position to deliver messages like that. I try to be as professional as i can be in delivering what the president asks me to deliver. Ms. Kelly do you get scared . Dir. Burns not scared. There were times in my career where i would be lying to you if i said i wasnt anxious. But i have been at it long enough where i just try to focus on the challenge over the mission at hand. Ms. Kelly i want to use the last couple minutes to try to figure out what we should be focused on that we are not. I just ran through the laundry list of the top i got to start with russia, ive got to ask about china, ukraine, cyber. Is there a country, person, place or issue that journalists never ask you about that we should . Dir. Burns i think as a government, and sometimes as an agency, we dont pay enough attention to the continent of africa. This is a part of the world that is only going to become more significant for american interests as the years flow by. The population of the continent is likely to double before the middle of this century. Add to that all the unresolved problems of food, water, health, security, climate change, regional conflicts, governance, corruption, the way in which predatory players like the Wagoner Group tries to take advantage of that, it is a challenge we cannot afford to neglect. I traveled to africa as my role as director of cia and worked hard to try to provide the support and resources that our officers operating in africa need and can make best use of. A member late late last april, a political crisis accelerated rapidly in sudan. The challenges that matter enormously to the people of sudan, who has suffered more than his share of humanitarian catastrophes over the years, it can spill over into deep and regional insecurity. That is an area where i try to stay sharply focused. That is one example. Broader than that, broader than the geopolitical part of the question is the revolution of technology. Ms. Kelly we need another hour for that. Dir. Burns but i think, how well or how poorly we take advantage of emerging technologies as an agency, not just helping policymakers to understand vulnerabilities and supply chains and other issues, but transforming our own tradecraft to take advantage of those changes and stay ahead of our adversaries, is going to make or break us as an Intelligence Service. That is something we are very sharply focused on, which may not have been the case several decades ago. Ms. Kelly we have a great Young Leaders program at the security forum. People in their 20s who are considering or have already launched careers in Public Service and academia. What would you tell 25yearold bill burns . Dir. Burns i remember what my dad wrote to me when i was 25 years old and i was trying to figure out what i wanted to do with my professional life. One possibility was the foreign service. My dad wrote me a letter, which is kind of quaint, but thats what people did in those days. One line has always stuck with me, he said nothing can make you prouder than to serve your country with honor. He was a career on career army officer of whom i am deeply proud. It frightened me a little at the time, i never expected to still be in Public Service four decades later, but throughout those 40 years, every year, every job i have had i have learned the truth. In those words of advice. What i say to and teach it any 25yearold is, Public Service is always going to have challenges. Foreign service, cia, you are back and forth overseas and it poses challenges to families. You can ask my two daughters who are in their early 30s now, changing high schools when you are 16 is not fun. There are a lot of risks people have to take but i would not have traded it for anything. I think the opportunity to serve your country and to try to do it with honor as best you can is something i would urge all of the 25yearolds out there to consider. We had a banner year in recruitment at the cia this past year. The biggest number of applicants since 9 11. I would encourage all of you to consider that as well, or any other form of Public Service. Ms. Kelly and also, a boat is waiting in the harbor at midnight. [laughter] ms. Kelly thank you. [applause] announcer sunday on q a, axios chief financial correspondent felix salmon taught about the longterm social and Economic Impact of the covid19 pandemic. Some of it surprisingly positive. The pandemic gave us this yo lo theme that is throughout the economy. People are embracing their dreams. Creativity creates not just art, but commerce, companies, wealth. That is one of the big reasons why i am so optimistic. I see opportunities of creativity more broadly distributed than it is if you been. 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