But squatting in a diner for internetwork is even harder. That is why we are providing lower income students access to affordable internet, so homework it can just be homework. Cox, connect to compete. Announcer cox, along with these other television provirs, giving you a front row seat to democracy. Announcer now to a conversation on how the outcome of todays midterm elections could affect congress and potential president ial candidates in 2024. Hosted by the German Marshall Fund this is about an hour. To remind our viewers the u. S. Goes to the polls on tuesday, november 8. Its always the first tuesday after the first monday in november. You might ask why november and that dayton its because its after the harvest and when most could go to the polls. Only 2 of americans are farmers but tradition is tradition. Every two years, all 435 seats are up for election in the house and about 20 of these house seats are contestable. Maybe half a dozen or more of the senate seats are contestable. The senate currently has 50 republicans and 50 democrats, so a shift of just one seat will change the balance of power in the senate and since the rules of the senate are the Vice President breaks all ties and shes a democrat, the democrats have to at least retain 50 seats to retain control of the senate. In the house, the democratic majority is razor thin. So a lot of even a half dozen or so seats would flip control of the house. With that as a background, lets start on the senate, which is more contestable. Jessica, a week out from the election, how are things looking in the half dozen closest Senate Contests . If you ask this in august, i would have had a very different answer. Thats when we saw a summer of hope for democrats, especially after the Dobbs Decision that brought the roe v. Wade question back to the states. We saw historically the party in power should lose seats, an average of two senate seats, about 20 or so house seats, but when you look at this and democrats had a map with three incumbents, particularly in nevada, georgia and arizona that biden when the states by less than three points, where we have seen his approval rates drop across the country, particularly in the swing states, that was problematic for some of these democrats in this type of cycle where it felt like it was shaping up to be in the spring, what gave democrats an option that kept them in the game were that they were open seats republicans were now having to defend and had not expected to or if the incumbent had run in pennsylvania or ohio, im not sure these would be on the table. Pennsylvania is now their best opportunity to flip a seat and we saw in pennsylvania, John Fetterman opening up a lead i think we lost i think we have lost jessicas audio and her video is frozen. Until we get to that, why dont we turn to bill. Given your past service in republican administrations, what do you expect . Will it be a landslide victory or more modest 12 to 25 seat victory for the republicans and more importantly, what do you expect republicans to do with their majority once they are in control of the house . First of all, its good to be with all of you. Ive been to many gmf conferences and meetings over the years. More exotic places and zoom but im happy to be here with everybody on zoom with my distinguished colleagues. Im a little less i think it is more up in the air than people think. The polling has gone both ways and people are kind of a herd mentality. The democrats did have an impressive surge, which is pretty unusual. The republicans had a predicable comeback. There are a lot of close races. If you look at the most recent polls, there are range of outcomes but i think it is more from zero to 25 or 30 seats 1015 to 40. But when you have a a lot of close races, they can go either way and they often go in one way. Thats to say races within one or 2 tend to topple one direction or another. But if you have conflicting many waves which we are seeing in many reasons, individual candidates matter a lot coming candidate Quality Matters a lot and health, as we have seen in pennsylvania made matter for a key senate seat. I think it is very much up in the air. Which if republicans win the house, which is likely, whats going to happen . Two quick points. People im very worried about Election Night and the next week or month. People say january 6 could never happen again and i hope it could never happen again but we have a lot of people running on the republican side who say these remote these elections are stolen and we have a lot of states that will count the early vote late and will be safe where in some places, big cities come in later and there will be chances for candidates who want to cause trouble to cause trouble. We have a whole infrastructure now dedicated to causing trouble. Its a nontrivial chunk of the Republican Party that approves of what trump did in 2020 and thinks that system is rigged and has a lot of voters revved up to think the system is rigged. I think observers here and abroad and i say this i wish i didnt have to say this, just need to be ready for a certain amount of turmoil, chaos, motivated chaos on november 8. I hope it doesnt happen. I think would be good for the country and good for the world if we had a very neat election where people could, as in the olden days when 99 of the candidates concede gracefully or there is an orderly recount and no one is mobilizing armed voters to go to state capitals and state legislators are not threatening to hold new elections and candidates are not threatening to recognize the results, but im afraid that could happen. Assuming there is a Republican House, i dont think policy changes much. They may not control the senate, president have a lot of authority. Foreign policy and i dont think republicans are united on these big issues to cause huge policy changes. I cant really think of an area where there would be major changes. Foreign policy would stay on the corset is on. Biden has republican support on ukraine. There could be noise that could alarm allies and i think thats unfortunate, but i dont see much of a big thing there. The economy is on whatever course it is on in the fed will do its thing. I just dont see serious legislation eating past. Its not going to get past the senate where most of it needs 60 votes and not signed by President Biden. From a policy point of view, if you think things are on a reasonably good course, which i tend to in the big picture policy areas, i think it will stay mostly on that course. I think the chaos will be on the political side coming not the policy side. The degree of performative screaming and yelling in the house, the impeachment and whether its attorney general garland or President Biden, the investigations of hunter biden, the heightened rhetoric, the unfortunate rhetoric that can lead to violence, we have seen recently. I thing its going to be a very ugly 2023, 24 edits not as if there is no one on the left who will be prompted by extremist rhetoric on the right, i think the idea we are going to have this ability or bipartisanship, i wish we did but i dont see much of that happening on house side. Final point, with nancy pelosi, mccarthy will be a weak leader if he is speaker. You have different parts of the conference that are not entirely wed to him and will pressure him. God knows what trump will say from the outside. If Kevin Mccarthy decides this is the schedule and trump weighs in, what does that look like the next day . That is not a normal situation. To be fair, put more mainstream republicans say im not going to go along with ukraine, thats irresponsible and then what happens . The degree we are used to aid nancy pelosirun house, it is not going to look like that. In the Democratic Party will not have nancy pelosi in charge. The Democratic Party has had nancy pelosi in charge for 18 years. Whatever the math is. What does that look like . There are capable people lined up to replace her. The degree of chaos, not in policy, which i think stays on course, but in politics in 2023 is going to be a little bit jarring. Great and i think your point about pelosis right. She ran day she ran a discipline caucus, which her counterparts in the rebellion party could not do for years. Given your writing on the senate, including your first book, the last great senate and your new mcconnell book and your service to the senate as a young man, how do you think mcconnell and the republicans will act if they win the senate, if it is 50 50 again, or if there is a minority . Thanks, bruce, its great to be with such a wonderful panel and to reach the gmf audience. I appreciate the opportunity. From my standpoint, the thesis of my book is Mitch Mcconnell and the Senate Republicans failed the country at a catastrophic level by not stopping Donald Trumps assault on our democracy on the one hand and using the opportunity instead to pursue their most important objectives, namely stacking the Supreme Court with a right wing majority and it was my hope a month or two ago, as jessica said when the political atmosphere seemed more positive for democrats, it was my hope the democrats would pick up two to four seats and weaken mcconnells hold on the country. To be honest, ive made the argument we have been living in Mitch Mcconnells america for 14 years. Hes been the most decisive political finger figure in terms of what would be done and what would not be done and that was before trump came along. Now, if we have a situation where most likely, the senate it might be 50 50 again, it might be 51 49, one way or the other, mcconnell will have a disproportionate amount of power whether hes in the majority or still the minority leader, but close to 50 50. What does that mean . Let me give you the optimistic scenario. Having achieved his overriding objective of stacking the Supreme Court, mcconnell, age 80, might have some incentive to finish his career on a more positive note, trying to be Something Like the senator and statesman he once thought he might be rather than simply a partisan. Its not totally impossible to me. He has been on Good Behavior this year, joining in some bipartisan legislative efforts on the one hand and strongly supporting President Biden and joining with him on the ukraine war and funding for the efforts to support ukraine. From a european standpoint, i think it is very important mcconnell, unlike trump, favors nato and despises putin. On those things, he may be pretty good. On the other hand, we have a situation where a Republican House and anything like close to a republican majority does mean the end of any biden legislative agenda. Biden had his struggles, but he got a lot of things done and he wont be able to do that with a Republican House. That is a concern. I love to think about mcconnell, who is the ultimate politician and very successful at what he does. I think he enjoys the situation where he will have a great deal of power. He loves the contrast between him and Kevin Mccarthy, who is a craven and weak, likely to be a craven and weak speaker, and mcconnell likes to distinguish himself from trump. He may ultimately conclude this is his moment to be more like the mentors and heroes he pretends to have. Kentuckys henry clay, the great compromise or, john germans cooper, and mike mansfield, the best of all senate leaders. A positive scenario, possible, but i would not count on it. More likely to me is his goal remains, his power and Republican Party power, he will begin immediately to think about what do we have to do to win the presidency in 2024 and despite the fact Mitch Mcconnell and others, but particularly Mitch Mcconnell would like Nothing Better than for donald trump to disappear, he hates donald trump. If the republicans choose to nominate donald trump again, you know Mitch Mcconnell will be for him. I want to add one postscript following up on bills point about Political Climate and violence. In europe, countries are struggling with challenging problems. If you look at what germany is going through in policy terms and how to deal with its Energy Future and manufacture, its a really difficult problem. But in our country, we have the overlay of political madness that is divided and consuming the country at the moment. From a european standpoint, you have to worry about the condition of american democracy. If you had told me in the last 18 months or 20 months that joe biden would become president , we would get through most of the serious part of the covid challenge, we would have an insurrection, and despite all that, we would be more divided than ever, i would not have believed it. So the future of american democracy and its condition is still the central challenge Going Forward. On that note and to follow up, i want to pose a question to jessica. Given your work covering statelevel politics, how do you think it may play out at the state level in terms of how elections are run in the future and what this may mean for american democracy and to add data points to what ira and bill have raised, a cbs news Battleground Tracker poll released this weekend shows three quarters of republicans, registered voters say citizens should be allowed to challenge officials as they count the boat count the vote, and two thirds of republicans say the private citizens should be allowed to patrol polling places and ballot boxes. For those who have not been following this closely, a trump appointed judge in arizona said they can also carry guns as they patrol these ballot spots. So the potential for things getting out of hand is even greater. Jessica, what do you think about these races for secretary of state and american states where the secretary of state is not a Foreign Affairs person, hes the guy or woman who runs elections. The governor races and how that may affect how elections are run in certain states in the future. I want to hop back and finish my thoughts and site cut out. From where we see things now, whereas pennsylvania and arizona, we had at lean democratic about a month ago, we have moved back into the tossup column. Im particularly looking at the until dania race and whether federmans debate performance raised concerns about his fitness for office. We saw that in at least one day of tracking in a poll that came out today. I think at this point, the best outcome democrats can hope for is staying a 50 50 senate. I thought a month ago 5149 could happen. Even a month ago, republicans were saying a month were saying to would be excellent. Im not fencing a major shift. I think republicans could have a slight edge at this point with some of the pulling and things we are seeing coming out. To go to the states, governors get short shrift in midterm elections but we have lost jessica again. I will take this time say to our viewers that we are happy to have you pose questions and ask them. Put your questions in the chat function so we can sort through them and post them to our speakers. Jessica is back. Im not sure whats going on with our internet this morning. People sauntering covid how important governors are and during the 2020 election, how important they are, making decisions whether or not to overturn elections. In georgia, brian kemp stood up to trump and refused to overturn the election, faced trumps kryptonite and one that overwhelmingly and he is on pace for reelection against Stacey Abrams and that one him some crossover support for handling that this way. The same states challenged last time, arizona is going to be a key one there. A strong possibility that kari lake, who has been a conspiracy theorist, election denier and former tv news reporter, i would put a pinky on the scale for her. You could see some of those election deniers down the ballot winning as well. Nevada is another place where we could see that. Nevada, republicans might have a slight edge there. We see republicans voting on election day. Maybe you could say so our viewers in europe understand this better, what could a potential election deniers become secretary of state in whatever state, what might that imply . How could they affect how elections are run two years from now . If trump comes back and says these elections are fraudulent, you can have them try to overturn the results depending on where the state legislature is. There are still different rules in every state, but trump would have allies were the governor stood up to him as well as the secretary of state down ballot was a democrat but even republicans would uphold this line and im not sure we are going to see the same thing if these republican candidates win. Wisconsin is another state, closely spit closely split. The republican nominee there has at times said election was not valid and he has gone back and forth. The bright spot for democrats is pennsylvania. The secretary of state is appointed by the governor but josh shapiro is running away with that race over a complete election deniers who is probably one of the worst candidates running this cycle. So there more of a comfort shapiro will win and appoint someone that would have election integrity. Georgia, with republicans winning, Brad Raffensperger is on path to win easily. Its not just all republicans. You have places in michigan, i think democrats are going to win there. But i would keep an i would keep an eye on arizona, nevada and wisconsin. I agree and jessica will be back in a minute. I think its called the independent legislatures theory which is basically that if you read the constitution literally, it says state legislatures get to determine who are the electors in the electoral college, it does not mention one the majority of the vote. There has been a tradition of 100 years of that being the case. If you go to the u. S. Constitution and read that sentence, its pretty clear state legislatures can do whatever they want to do in terms of appointing electors and that will factor into the makeup of the legislature and mood of that state. I want you to be able to finish your thought. Not sure where it cut out. Arizona, nevada and wisconsin are places where we can see election deniers win. Arizona is the most likely. You should feel good about wisconsin, pennsylvania and georgia at this point. Do you want to make any other comments about the future of american democracy . We had an election yesterday in brazil. There are rumblings of election denial, they had a close election. There were irregularities trying to suppress some votes. Looks to me that they have more acceptance than we did. Im being somewhat rhetorical but i think honestly if we lived in a foreign country who would see people running for governor and secretary of state pledging Going Forward in openness to not going in the normal way of certifying the results, the winner of the popular votes to overturn laws. This from happening in europe or south america, we would say is pretty bad. Sort of in the business of okaying and not accepting Election Results in the peaceful transfer of power. The acceptance of mainstream republicans is what makes this so dangerous. In 20, doug ducey is endorsing kari lake and spending tens of billions of dollars. It doesnt mean he would literally endorse overturning the election but creates a situation where the party will do so, same with Kevin Mccarthy elevating Marjorie Taylor greene shes took with mccarthy when they announce their agenda theyre boys and extremists on both sides. Its unique to have them so close to the center of power the expresident is the leading candidate to be the nominee. That is what is alarming about democracy in the u. S. Most americans dont realize the image of the United States and our soft power that Everyone Wants to emulate no longer exists. A majority of europeans say they dont see the United States as a model for democracy. We pay a price internationally. First i would say the audience, meat loaf, discussing the deterioration of america as an example and an inability and soft power, we are undermining it because we dont look like a democracy. The second point is bill made a Crucial Point in his work the people who know better and stay silent have been a real problem here. The mcconnells and other Senate Republicans who know and new the 2020 election was conducted early. He refused to recognize biden as the president elect for weeks. Go back and look at it, that was when the big lie spread. 70 of the trump vote reached a conclusion that the election was stolen and rigged because nobody was telling them otherwise. Its a lesson that people have not learned the people who have these positions of influence and stay silent her real problem. They have like the extremists run wild. The primaries are producing more extreme nominees, that is your motivation weve seen candidates that have tried to pivot towards the center after winning another that is successful we will see. One of the places im really intrigued as we are seeing some Election Administration changes and how they are decided with rank choice voting. Alaska just implemented top four. They advance its rank choice voting. In that special house election we had that produced a more moderate nominee or winner, the democrat over sarah palin and Lisa Murkowski is the only senator up for reelection will get at least second place and get support from independents and democrats already, not just republicans. A problem also looking at setting this up and execute part for me. Slightly optimistic points, if you had told me after the chaos of 2020 in january 6 that the attacks on biden with a 5050 senate and tiny majority of the house, afghanistan which i think was a mistake hurt him politically and lessened his power, if you told me we could pull off the Ukraine Foreign policy with good u. S. Work, good diplomatic work and solidify the alliance. Ukrainians think we are key to it europeans think we are key to it. Its gone pretty well with little attempts to speak of republicans, democrats who were shut down by pelosi. These institutions remain strong. U. S. Ability to help others around the world remains unmatched, obviously in terms of equipment. That has been heartening. I wonder ukraine could be a moment where people are reminded what is at stake, here and everywhere else. In that respect, its been less hampered that one might have expected. Back in august, september just a year ago. If you hit city year ago after afghanistan biden would be getting authorization to spend tens of billions of dollars to help you rain ukraine, quibble with the speed in which he does things, the Nato Alliance has held together well, countries have come along, nato is expanding by two countries. We remain keep the Logo National order, and even if we mess up, they will make sure we stay to it. If this goes on too long in the u. S. , it really weakens us. The war is terrible and somebody ways. So many ways. In terms of strengthening the liberal world order, i am struck by that. We have a number of questions from the audience. The first question was Foreign Trade related, about whether the impact of this election change of power in the congress will impact trade relations with the arab. Europe. There are number of trade related issues that are beginning to build with europe, but trade is not a major issue in this campaign by a longshot. Any thoughts on that . I am a former u. S. Trade official but i tried to keep up on these issues. Six. More of a consensus in trade now that that has been logged up meigs ends as a trade that exists is, we needed a north american trade agreement notwithstanding people how they disliked nafta, and number two, there is a bipartisan agreement that our trade policy with china and policy towards china generally has to be much tougher. Those are the elements of a consensus on trade in the United States. With respect to u. S. Europe trade, it always appears we should have a deeper relationship with europe than we do, real differences on regulatory issues continue to always remain so whether its food or chemicals, policy, there are genuine differences between the u. S. And eu. It would not expect trade to be a major issue nor would i expect too much change. We are open to answers in a system where the wto is very weak and where real differences between the u. S. And eu on regulatory matters continue. Biden has been timid in my view. The biggest war since 1945. People of not been serious. People have not been serious about this. Leaving every thing else aside. Biden has been timid because there is opposition from both parties to move ahead. The good news is, its the status quo which is a freetrade friendly status quo. I wish people made this point in the u. S. Government, has there ever been a better case for free trade and capital for the u. S. And europe with vaccines . Where were the vaccines made, discovered and invented . Most vaccines used in the u. S. Were physically made in europe. Even when europe was falling behind us and in parts of europe. The idea we would go back to some kind of is ridiculous. I wish people took advantage of the solutions of the pandemic, mitigation, to say do we want not to be able to share the fruits of Scientific Research . The lesson sunken in a way, people are idiots about this. The bad news is, not huge progress in the next two years, the good news is, not much moving in the other direction. Trumps election did not mark the beginning of protectionism as u. S. Policy, we are not in 1930. Thats a good thing. Immigration on the other hand we have been timid, and trump may have marked a change in policy, in my view, a damaging change. We have a question on economic implications on the outcomes of this election and what it may mean for the future. As an observer, one of the interesting things is for the most part, polls tell us the public is worried most about inflation and or the economy, probably one and the same thing. The democrats and Biden Administration seem to get no credit for the strong Economic Performance up until the last few months so job creation, loaning. Concerns about inflation seem to trump it all, no pun intended. Well a republicancontrolled house try to push certain Economic Issues that lead to more controversy inside washington customer washington . The messages we had too much spending that was driving inflation. It comes down to what voters are feeling and seeing. Gas prices, you may not realize what grocery prices are until you checked out. Now that they are going up, there is more uncertainty. It boils down to pocketbook issues, what voters are feeling. There is not a lot of confidence right now. Its not just a u. S. Problem, its the u. K. And europe as well. Voters want to blame someone and theres one party that controls everything. In absence of rick scotts plan, republicans have not had to have an agenda to point to other than we will not be democrats. Republicans believed gas prices would go down republicans won the election. Democrats did not believe that. It has to do with public often just wants politicians and the president to be daddy and solve problems. Inflation is an issue the president has almost no control over, but it does not matter. Energy production is higher in the u. S. Than it was when donald trump left office. Why dont we hear that . You cant go overnight to new forms of energy, and a lot on the left think that all like that. Most of the money he got a year earlier was for new industries, solar and wind. Democrats are so conflicted on some of the stuff, and a normal administration, they wouldve answered by seeing increasing gas and oil, more on an emergency basis. A progrowth economic message. Seems to cut against some of the messaging on climate and other issues. With have a question about 24, how the race may develop post this election, how soon people will throw their hats in the ring, who might be, do we assume biden will win megan . What happens if the former president gets indicted . Any thoughts on that . Republicans are happy trump did not announce before the midterm elections. That was in a more a nightmare scenario. With trump inserting himself into so many races, there was quite a lot voters could make a case this was an indictment on the former president. I would not be shocked to see him soon thereafter, because at this point he needs to distract from a possible indictment, maralago. Particularly not an accident when trump announced he was going for a rally with marco rubio who is also up for reelection. He is saying to santa should win handily. Its a traditional strong democratic area. Some people broke from trump could still run, not sure he has a path in that regard. With biden, you assume the incumbent is running, what i have seen that one either of them to run. They want new people on both sides. It feels inevitable that the most likely scenario is a biden and trump matchup. Any thoughts . I agree about the sentiment. The poland suggests polling suggests each would be the leader in his own party. Trump is the most likely nominee, being indicted will not stop him. He will run and most likely be the nominee. I am more skeptical biden will be the nominee than the trump. He will choose a successful one instead of trying to run again when he could be a successful one term president. Getting legislation passed in 2022. Significant legislation. We would have a wide open democratic primary. I do not agree with people who say Vice President harris is the prohibitive front runner, its a wideopen race. I am personally willing to run the risk. I think biden is too old to do it again. A lot of democrats are with me until the last sentence and say i were going to go through those debates again, biden b trump. If i do that, harris, buttigieg. Being in an actual democratic primary in iowa and new hampshire. Other states in january, february, who knows. This is one point. What if we have the Current Situation mccarthy is the new speaker, 5050 senate. And, uncertainty about the nominees of both parties with not only uncertainty, but real drama about what might happened happen. Its a very unusual moment. Any thoughts about the election and my dad an observation that if biden does not run, how does the Democratic Party deny the nomination to a black woman when blacks and women are the two major Constituency Group . My predictions on american politics were great in the 20th century. Ive not been to britain last 20 years. I have an of the view trump would not run again and that is a minority viewpoint. A key on the republican side is others will not stand by, they will run. Desantis will run, pence may run. Others will not stand by and let trump get the nomination, and it will be interesting to see how they deal with taking him down in a situation where he has great support within his party. Then, republicans are win or take all primaries. A plurality candidate can accumulate kenny cumulate delegates. My view on biden as he will make a decision early on and im hopeful you will make the decision and he will regard himself as transitioning to another generation. Simply because he has been an excellent president but i dont think he can say he can do the job for six more years, two now and for if he is elected. With respect to the question, i think the answer is democratic voters will decide, if biden does not run, they will decide who will be the nominee and if cumulatively they decide it will be Vice President harris, thats fine. If they decide not to go with her and someone else, the party will come together behind that nominee. It is true, we dont have an overwhelmingly strong base, bench, but in fact, it did not look like jimmy carter, bill clinton, barack obama are going to be president s and nominees until they were. The democrats have a habit of turning up new faces every eight or 10 years. Briefly, who do you think could be in the running other than Vice President harris and may be buttigieg. Democrats . Or in that case, republicans. Are there any others . She was a critic before she joined the administration. My dark horse for is roy cooper. The democratic governor of north carolina, he has one has democrats have been vexed. I would look to some of these governors for a longtime. It was the best path to the white house, the senate must recently. Governors have different claims. There will be antitrump people like larry hogan, so i would watch for that one. Chris sununu perhaps. Client, josh shapiro guide. I am a josh shapiro guide. Guy. Newsom would like to run. Is going to win a big reelection. There are others. Under point, identity politics are very strong. Whites vote for black voters, voters are much less into identity politics. We have reached the witching hour. The appropriate term on halloween. I want to thank you all for a fascinating conversation, questions we have received. Lets keep our papers cross. Fingers crossed. As for se key battleground states, close wil polls will close at 70 p. M. In georgia. At 8 00 p. In pennsylvania. At 10 00 p. M. In nevada. Times mentioned are eastern time via the Washington Post and cspan. Starting at eight 00 p. M. Eastern watch cspan slide election day coverage to see which party few results from senate and governor races from around the country. On cspan, the cspan now free mobile app and at cspan. Org. Next former republican governor Christine Whitman talking about the need for a new Political Party and her own reasons for joining the Forward Party founded by former president ial candidate andrew yang. And the political situation in the united kingdom. Senior white house official amid the policy agenda