Transcripts For CSPAN Key Capitol Hill Hearings 20140808

The other name for the Kurdish Forces, are you bubble are a capable fighting force. Necessary is support from the American Military to enhance their fighting position or to take out key targets that would allow them to have greater success. Again, there are a couple of factors that are important. The residence determination not to send american and to ensure that this is being done in a way that is coordinated with the Security Forces and have an inclusive iraq government. The reason for my question is the Iraqi Government is not currently relevant in the fight. That is all that is relevant right now. As seems to be a potential turning point. The fighters are fighting right might have an opportunity to regain facilities. That. Like what im curious about is the u. S. Says, dont do that. We want help you with that even though it is cushy to iraqi even though it is crucial to iraqi. What is overall direction going to be if they do get back in the fight . They aree seen that prepared to get back into the fight. Your question released iraq Security Forces. That is why they are included in the security centers. Reason according to the assessment, the reason that we decline in that capability of a dark Security Forces is that it was not integrated in a way that reflects the diverse iraq regulation. That is a consequence of failed lyrical leadership. Thatyou have a leadership is not demonstrating a commitment to an inclusive governing agenda, theyll have an impact on their ability to command and control and integrated security force. That is why this all start with is difficult and challenging and occasionally frustrating as it is, it all starts with the iraqs Political Leadership making the decisions that are ofessary to pursue the kind agenda that will inspire the diverse population of iraq and inspire the confidence in their Security Forces. If the people of iraq are invested in the success of the government and make it easier for the Security Forces to also be integrated and better confront the advance that we have seen. Im trying to figure out if peshmerga asked for more help to accomplish military objectives the pushback isis, when they get it . Yes or no . That would be made on a casebycase basis. We are coordinating with the Peshmerga Forces in a variety of settings. We are increasing the flow of arms and assistance to the peshmerga. We are cordoning efforts at Operation Centers cordoning efforts at Operation Centers. These are the kinds of decisions that are made on a casebycase basis by the American Military that knows this area very well and the teams that are on the ground that the president sent there a few weeks ago by mirkin officials who are evaluating these kinds of objectives through the lens of Americas National security ironies. Priorities. [inaudible] at this point i dont have any schedules for the president to announce. [inaudible] the president will be traveling to massachusetts and meet with others to ensure that he has the capacity to make the kinds of decisions that are required of commander in chief. If theres a need for the president to return to the white house, it is not a long life from Marthas Vineyard back to washington, d. C. [inaudible] as he said earlier, the president wanted to return to meet in person with some white house staff for some meetings. Im not in a position to be at those meetings. Thank you. [indiscernible] how do you change attitudes like this . A beacons. Stands as for freedom and respect for basic human rights. That is what distinguishes the u. S. And is so critical to the founding values of this country. We have condemned in clear terms the efforts of extremist groups to target and in some cases massacre minority population solely because of their religious or ethnicity. Use iillingness really miss from this president authorized military force to try to you saw from this last night his willingness doctors military force. Commitment to these kinds of values and the bravery of our servicemen and women to take the kinds of actions that are necessary to prevent those situations from occurring. It is inspiring. It is something that speaks to the core American Values that we hold so dear. [inaudible] i think the way we deal with them is pretty evident based on the president s willingness to take military action. The have been asked about the difference in iraq and syria. Is it an instance where iraq had certain obligations and certain chances on the ground. Could you expand a little bit on wide the situation as necessitating national as to why the situation is necessitating this as to why the situation is necessitating this . Terms in theink in core priorities the president lay them out pretty clearly last night. I think what you are alluding to is the significant sacrifice that has been made in iraq by hundreds of thousands of americans, servicemen and women, who have served that country. They served a very difficult conditions. Many were injured and many died. That is an indication of the u. S. Commitment to iraqs success. That was in support of the iraqi people having access to the opportunity to determine the future of their country. Disappointed that iraqs political leaders have not seize that opportunity in the way we believe is necessary for iraq to remain the kind of secure, stable country that i think the vast majority of iraqs diverse population would like to see. That is the u. S. Continues to urge iraqs political leaders to pursue more inclusive governing agenda. It does speak to the commitment of the American People to send andgside iraq as a pursue make the decisions required to ultimately achieve the future of the country they would like to see. E. That plays a role her there is no doubt that history is obvious. What is harder to assess is what thatnt bypass for has for our ongoing security. I readily acknowledge the history of your highlightings, but in terms of the decision the president has made to authorize some military action in iraq, i would refer you to his remarks in terms of what those priorities were. [indiscernible] do they have a role in any way . Can you speak to that at all . Im not in a position to speak to that report here and i havent seen it. I can give a testament to some of the principles which is the u. S. Remains a beacon of freedom and protection of basic human applies to certainly this country, but applies that principle to populations all around the globe. That means the u. S. Stands squarely with those minority populations that are being targeted because of religious or ethnic identities. The president s commitment to those qandil issues indicate our to those issues indicate our support is clear and goes to the core value what it means to be an american. [no audio] im not aware of any specific actions that was taken by the order. I would say the creation of the board is evident as to how deeply held the presidency views are in that area. You said between june and now, the formation of a more inclusive progress in iraq was encouragement. I want to clarify between june was it communicated as conditional in the progress . At the the president is pretty clear. And him bring his remarks with me here every great night during that. When he spoke on this topic, he delivered a short statement. Commentsntext of those , i think it might have been in response to the question, he toicated that the key solving iraq underlying problems in the security situation was a government of that reflects iraqs diverse population. The president was resolute about his commitment that the u. S. Military would not be used to government iraqi that didnt reflect the views of the iraqi people. For anyonety evident whos trying to divert the president s priorities that a commitment to the military force could not be separated from the political of iraq leaders to form the kind of inclusive government and pursue the kind of unified governing agenda that will be required tonight that country in the face of this accident shall threat from isis. Areust to followup, you saying that the president was responding in large measures to humanitarian and genocidal situation. That he had made clear i am not in a position to hypothetical situation. Fortunately, we have seen slightly more optimistic scenarios than the one you have laid out. At least take some steps in the right direction of forming an inclusive government. There is still a very important step remaining, which is the appointment of the head government. That is not a minor step. Thef any changes in which president will be consulted directly before additional military strikes are taken . Or is he out of the picture in terms of approving the actual knowing the president is authorized military to use force in the situation based on that limited scope that he has articulated. He will not be in the situation where he is signing off on individual strikes. There will be regular consultations on the president s military commanders to their commanderinchief about the situation on the ground. What was going to happen . To be in at going position to authorize individual strikes, but he will be regularly consulted by his military commanders about their strategy and the assessment that they have reached. We will do three mars and then i will go. More andl do three then ill go. [inaudible] what about the airstrikes in the mountains and people who are surrounded there . The president have to sign off on that . The president has authorized military action in the support of the humanitarian efforts underway. Clear aboutbeen forming a new inclusive government. Maliki isime minister reelected . It would be up to the iraqi people to determine who should lead their government. That is not a decision that will be dictated by the u. S. And it is not a decision that should be dictated by any outside afghan. They should be a decision made by the afghan iraq local leaders and people. Not just to the person is, but what is a governing agenda . If a pursue a governing agenda that has the support of iraqs diverse population and clear to every citizen in iraq that they have a government that is representing their interests and is fighting for their future, that is the kind of government that will succeed. Having a unified country is important to nuvasive as essential threat is important when you face in existential threat. [inaudible] we will stay in touch with thatraq leaders to ensure they have started to form a government. We encourage them every step of the way. Theres regular consultation with them. We would like to see them move quickly. If you look at the history of, is not a history of iraq moving quickly to make these decisions, a we have seen significant progress. We hope that momentum will be sustained and therell be an announcement about a Prime Minister soon. Thank you. Openended verses not prolonged [indiscernible] there are some important notification requirements. The u. S. And the administration will abide by them. The administration has been consulting closely with congress. We have consulted with the relevant members of congress from these committees just in the last one for hours about the military action. Consistent with those consultations, the administration will comply with applicable requirements in the war powers resolution. Sometimes these are classified. Sometimes they arent. If lawyers determine it is necessary, i would anticipate it is something we would likely release publicly. It is the notifications and not the request for rational action, right . The 60 days . The only thing i can speak to is that magicians commitment to complying with the war powers act. The only thing i can speak to is this administrations commitment to complying with the war powers act. An this president. That is a hypothetical it is difficult to evaluate. There are lot of variations on that question. A question about the longerterm strategy regarding isis. Well, let me at least take a shot at one thing and say this it is difficult to imagine a scenario where you would have a stable iraq with a security situation that is under control where ice is was really operating in the countryside. That is why we have worked so closely with the Iraqi Government and kurdish Security Forces to counter this the. Threat. Ready and has damaged and willingness to support them. The u. S. Stands ready and is willingness to support them. But ultimately it is up to iraq. The president will begin his petition with this family at martyrs vineyard. Thes looking forward president will begin his vacation with his family at Marthas Vineyard. I believe there will be some press access. The president is currently planning to return to washington next sunday just for a day or two for meetings at the white house and return to Marthas Vineyard to spend a few days with his family on tuesday and then returning the next sunday back to the white house to get back to business. [inaudible] i dont anticipate therell be briefings at the white house. The president is traveling with members of the National Security staff. His press secretary will also be on the trip with him. You will be informed from highly qualified on what the president is up to. [inaudible] im sorry . [inaudible] in terms of the families traveling schedule, we would have to give you Additional Details when the traveling begins. [inaudible] i dont have a schedule to lay out for you in terms of what briefings will look like. Between the president s National Security adviser and deputy National Security adviser and press secretary, we will keep you wellinformed. I will get a chance to take a break while the president is away as well and we will do a briefing here in a couple of weeks. Thanks, everybody. Good luck. Thank you. You will be busy. [laughter] [captions Copyright National cable satellite corp. 2014] [captioning performed by national captioning institute] that briefing was held before u. S. Forces began airstrikes against isis targets in erbil. Thewashington post reports u. S. Expense airstrikes against islamist militants. Drones have been conducting additional strikes outside the curtis capital of erbil, successfully eliminating targets. The u. S. Fighter jets dropped laser gun bombs on a mobile artillery piece that was being used to shelve Kurdish Forces in areas where u. S. Personnel are located. Hours later, drugs used to strike an islamist motor our position drones were used to strike an islamist motar position. That again is from the washington post. Onwould know more tomorrow washington journal. Ion nissenbaum as one of our guests. Vinthal on the irs taxexempt division. All that tomorrow morning starting at 7 a. M. Eastern on washington journal. Presentsonth, cspan the on what makes americas great. Debates. Issue spotlight irs oversight, student loan debt, and cap the sexual assault. New perspectives on voting rights, fighting infectious disease, and food safety. And our history tour. Find our tv schedule one week in advance at cspan. Org. Let us know what you think about the programs you are watching. Call us at the number on your screen or email us. Join the conversation. Like us on facebook, follow us on twitter. Spoket month, ralph reed at the and a western conservative summit in denver. He criticized Obama Administration will come including the ongoing trouble in ukraine and the middle east. The middle east, the bloodiest and most dangerous and most unstable region and the from tripolilames across the horn of africa all the way to the mediterranean. Despot a blood 30 thirsty despot and dictator. The president said there is this redline and told him if he crossed it, he would pay. That dictator has slaughtered 160,000 of his own innocent civilians. In order to keep our wildest administration sat and watched it happen while this administration sat and watched it happen. Effort priests and evangelical beheaded catholic priests and evangelicals have been beheaded. Destabilized and turned it into the wild west. It has been replaced by military regime. In iraq, isis and al qaeda affiliates reside over a radical that stretchesy from the Syrian Border all the way to the outskirts of baghdad. By the way, over 60,000 christians in iraq, the last remaining ones left have literally had to flee for their lives. Thee terrorists are mocking entire free world and essentially spitting on the grave of americans who give their lives to liberate that country and this demonstration couldnt do anything other than sent 300 military advisers. s just some of ralph reed remarks at the western conservative summit in denver. Earlier today, the Atlantic Council i just pakistans efforts and strategy to combat terrorism in the north warziristan region. It has been a safe haven for several military groups. This is an hour and a half. Good morning, everyone. My colleagues at the center, i would like to welcome all of you to this very interesting session on the situation in north warziristan. Welcome the part of our audience that is not in the same room, but in another room. We will be taking questions from them, too. Also welcome to the cspan audience watching us at home or in the office or wherever they are watching from. Thank you all for being here. This is normally supposed to be a quiet evening in washington in august, but that is one of those yths, like a 30 minute commute everyone has. Im delighted we are looking at this topic and delighted to experts. Wo one is a defense analyst and also chairman of a group and pakistan that is related to security. Doctor was teaching at a university and has a book. He is the chair of department of regional studies at the college of interNational Security. More details on them are available on the material that you have. I dont want to take too much time going into those. Iso want to say that this really on the record, but it is also made possible by a generous grant we received on the Carnegie Corporation of new york for the u. S. Pakistan program to focus on key issues that relate to pakistan and to the u. S. Pakistan relationship. We have been grateful to carnegie for this excellent row graham and the support program and their support. Evokes allristan kinds of memories, particularly the last few years. This is the campaign that never came about. Theed to a break region chief of staffs and the then army chief. This was a campaign that people expect it because it was something that the United States and its allies wanted very much for warziristan to undertake even as they operated in other parts in the area. North warziristan was somehow spared a major operation hear it over the years, many deals were made and were broken, but the key ingredient in this was the about and he how who are seeking sanctuary. This was a topic of tension. They became famous among other things for repeated drone attack us and the frequency of the attacks would be something that would be remarked upon regularly. Months, it was quite clear that the pakistan and taliban were not taking the offensive. There were attacks, including the one at the iraqi airport,. Ublic opinion swung so, the Pakistan Military found an opportunity and launched this operation. That is what we will discuss here at not just operation, but inside means for the war of all of anniston and what would it mean for the region, particularly the relationship knowing forward . Request the major, im using his old military rank, for about a greeting 10 minutes on the situation there. Nd take it from then we will open it up to questions and answers and take the discussion forward. Thank you. One of the questions that was asked of me was will the army ever go . I honestly answered, yes, it would. At that point in time, we knew something and pakistan that people did not know otherwise. Arecommanders on the ground strongly urging that the that developed must be maintained. And because ,f the fact that the fighters they decided to delay the operations. Whoever, the pressure was from their own commanders. Ultimately, by the time the chain of command to place, it was more or less decided that the operation would go in. In,ation was meant to go but into major phases. The first was airstrike. Precisely where they that ated in the fact they expected to catch them from position airstrikes. Ae moment they had provocation once airstrikes went in, they killed many in the first. The Major Political parties talked about ceasefire and talks. Unfortunately, the ploy was only to delay. They needed to get out. They knew that they needed time, [indiscernible] intention of the the negotiators were talking something else. Ultimately, it is fair to say the pressure was if you dont go , you dont get a chance to clear the area. See [indiscernible] were not really fighters. They dont consider them fighters. If you look east, you see if it is not shown on the map, but where you see [indiscernible] range. N mountain it gives you an idea of how high it is. Resort. Hill so the army action when in here i wont go into details. They came in from different directions. Then then east and then weston then southwest. And then west and then southwest. There the point was to dominate. Why . It not joking they tell you would pale in comparison. It was a freeforall really. Economies. Out the south when you see the mountain,. His is the area both of them had signed peace treaties with pakistan in 2003. They basically said the same. As soon as they were out of the area, they took large portions of the area. Other things started coming up. There was some fighting thisally for control of area. I want to clear one misperception. Fighters. Bout the the arab fighters. That kind of fighter is the name from pakistan and did not go back. Wrong. Ets go back and the fighters came back each of them were given 14,000 and an ak47 to join in the jihad. To takend it convenient the 14,000 in marrying their daughters off to these militants. Hey were vexed these people are literally homeless. They have no place to go. They cant go back because they do not want their. There backs are to the wall. They had no other place to go. The are the ones of when place. Took but basically most of the people you been killed had ared imagine the children now in their 30s. Zone, and just one case alone just to give you discovered they bombs. 1000. Hadyou imagine that they these underground hospitals . The was the intention of army . What have you achieved . Maybe 500 or 600 all. What they achieved is they now dominate that area. By dominating the area, they. Eny militants based on the ability to strike, but its them they dont give them the opportunity to do so with the freedom they had. Now the a situation fighting is taking place in the mountains. The ground operations are proceeding there. The expected they would dominate , which is a tragedy by itself. Turned out to be 1. 1 million of them who were registered. And other areas of pakistan. Some are in camps. Unfortunately, there are logistics and we have to live with that. Just before i end, i would like to say that they were successful have notnse they abandoned their posts. They help these people. On the other hand, that particular freedom they had is not there anymore. The good news is they should be going back sometime in the middle of september. 80 of them should be that. [indiscernible] this is thating on fail in will not military operations. They will fail in [indiscernible] even though the Army Engineer these roads,ing wideopen roads to make back to medications less difficult. Something rt is you take a person and what him across the road and it cap, you have put him in a can, you have disrupted. He is not bashing put a minute camp, you him in a have disrupted. Have disruption which must be addressed. The rehabilitation is something that must be worked upon. Must give them a means. Give them reason to protect that means. Thank you. Thank you. Lets move on. Forward. Can take this what is the meaning . Where does this put the war on terror . Thank you, first. I appreciate all of the different events and publications produced by the Atlantic Council. Thank you relating that effort. Whose responsibility is that . Operation of what are the implications of a what will itand mean for the ordinary people and the terrorists for the implications . I would look at it skeptically. Generalo add to the view in which i think it is absolutely right. This operation is not only a major step toward defeating terrorist in that region, but it is going on for all the that ite that we have is going in the right direction. It is delayed and it is the right and to do. I was in pakistan about two weeks ago. I was told about that that it was in this operation that the Pakistan Military got hold of Senior Leaders and had permission to come out. Happenededa leader to be a pakistani. He has a masters degree. He is punjabi by ethnic act grant. Background. I earnestly hope that with the interrogations going on that there is an officer who is there. It is necessary in that case. However we have seen consistent failure. Action, the Police Political support base is missing. Go to utter failure. It is important to see the overall of the context and the different stations stages. Focused this time. They realize that the first step to ttp. He was the head of a group of militants. Is to go i am making to north warziristan. The first two steps began in unison in a coordinated fashion. The them full credit for success. I think that there were some successes. An second stage was operation that was quite successful in terms of pushing some of the i think we just cannot ignore that delay. Mention that the a qaeda leaders, when both the for [indiscernible] have the exact answers. I would like to have the answers. At what stage did he get connected with al qaeda . How were they allowed to expand into mainstream pakistan . The operation. There are different ethnic groups that lived there. You can make up the language and the future. Dont have their own are there check post . Was there any courting nation between military intelligence and local Law Enforcement . Indirectly i think it would be unfair to say it was in any way intended. Ready to fly buy, but to say it was one man and not to delay the operation for four years is a reflection. This leads me to my second point. I am making the case for the lessons to be learned and not always to look forward, but look into the history. The recent history, we cant just ignore. Vague. Wers are very it brings me to the next point. It was reluctant with a heavy advice what was the given by the Pakistans People Party . Were they reluctant . Now. They were begging, but making a consistent effort, lease dont. Disconnect. What were the answers given to them . In fact, there was a clear effort to show that there were some bad intentions. Exposed by, he was having some soft feelings of sympathy. Maybe he was making a case to negotiate. There was a different criteria to look at the issues. I can be long and some of these minor details about the military relationships and this transition from military to democratic. The larger point is there is a military disconnect. On other issues, there was an effort to try to shift the areassibility in tribal completely to the military. You. Up to they didnt want to take responsibility in case something went wrong. That disconnect, that lack of communication is most certainly at the core of this issue. Lack of coordination between leadership,litary that leads to lack of cohesion, lack of planning, and such in it problem becomes obvious. If we had millions of dollars to go for specific strikes and go for deployment of military that is no small job, it would take millions of dollars and lots of dedication. Noould say there were civilian private sector organization. They have completely failed to realize this. This brings me to almost the end of my initial plan. On theisconnect longterm impacts. In the short run, there are those of this operation that i think is very good. It mustveen been planned months before. It must have some linkages. In the last two months and weeks, we havent seen any of that. There was a bombing of the girls school last week, but no major attacking of centers. Militants are on the run. That there is a lot of evidence they are really on the run. Whatever structure is being theird infrastructure is being dismantled. One thing that is for sure is no it is not being provided under the sanctions. Whysly, they would dont you move . You can go and be the guests. That is to the best of my knowledge in honest assessment. That is not happening. That is a good sign. Groupr, the high connie has not been delicately Haqqani Group has not been delicately targeted. There is skepticism about some policies. I think the new military leadership that is not working around one person, but around four or five who previously related to the chief of staff. They were the ones who are the architects. I think they are very clearheaded and however, what concerns me the most is there is no comprehensive policy. The Pakistani Police officers have, and i say it with some responsibility, even the leading Police Officer in these provinces have not been given any briefings. They are not part of this overall operation. The consequences of this operation will be seen lets say they are incompetent. He should be on the same table when these things are discussed. I mention this to my political friends and military as well. They say we are very incompetent and corrupt. Are we not having the same food as you are . Are we coming from mars yucca that i am not seeing. The real battle against pakistani terrorists and militants will be fought by the civilian Law Enforcement. It will not take decades for them to transform. They will have to be on board. Links with the political party. This was producing these militants. That news item in the pakistani media. Unless there is that component which means which needs political courage and Political Leadership as well. Somehow it is also missing. The kind of energy that we were expecting to see for support of this whole operation is missing some of the media, is running programs trying to go for these patriotic songs, etc. For the best of my knowledge they are all paid by the pakistani i sbir. This is not happening from among the people. At the end of the day, that will define pakistans larger, broader antiterrorism effort which would take five or 10 years to complete whether we are going in that direction or not. I think both of you raised some very interesting points. The may be some statements i may want to challenge in terms of the assertions that have been made. Let me, if i may, ask both of you a question. What mr. Identified as the center of this operation. It was also the headquarters of Seventh Division of the Pakistan Army all these years. They were one kilometer outside of the city. Havingit that despite something approximating 42,000 thats in North Waziristan these operations could take place from bases with training being provided, with equipment being brought in, and the photographs show some very heavy equipment, how is it possible that this was ignored or that this happened . Was a because the military was confined to barracks . Or was it simply because there was no National Strategy . That is my first question. I think what you ask is relevant. The seventh to division has been in the forefront of this operation. It is the one which is for the last 10 years or so it has been in the field. Its traditional operation kashmir. Shmere the conscious decision. I agree when he says there is criminal neglect. The commanders on the ground who are actually in knowledge of the situation tell you that the time is now to keep the momentum going. I want to disagree with u hassan on the strength of the army chief. The last time, there was collective responsibility, was ruling pakistan. Generalscoterie of that were hawkish. Ultimately, they kept on driving. Im in bad faith under the site, he came to a decision to the famous 25th march thing. I was there as a helicopter pilot in eastern command. I know firsthand what was happening. There was some bad faith involved. The army chief was finally overruled. I was only when all the chips are down. As long as he as you army chief, he is what he is. His word is law. To expect that the collective leadership of the dg, all will convince the army chief, otherwise, i dont think that is possible in the Pakistan Army, at least what i know of them. In northwest pakistan bordering afghanistan. It has been a safe haven for several military groups. This is an hour and a half. This is cementing terrorism within pakistan. That terrorism within pakistan can also come with an insurgency. No army in the world can do counterterrorism. I agree with [indiscernible] i would like to welcome the audience to watching us at home or in the office. Thank you all for being here. There is some changing dynamic. I would like to say, i dont w really who actually whether there was some military involvement. People think like that. They say the next army chief im not really sure whether the president and army chief. This is not the view among some experts in pakistan. Quit to societal times toward see, some radicalization. There is a reflection of those elements within the Pakistani Armed forces as well. It is natural. Does having an impact on commandandcontrol system. Pakistans still armys cohesion can be the most important factor for pakistan survival. Am seeing some changes. Just to complete the point of National Security, also, is that the Political Leadership are still not really clear. I think at the heart of the and also the counterinsurgency, which the army never liked. The larger point is, there is a lack of court nation between different elements of safe power. There are not any clear signs that there is a recognition and realization of this issue. Thank you. We wont go into some of the fine points of exactly how decisions are made, but the reality is that the proximate causes of this particular operation appeared to be the attack in karachi, which change public opinion. When you talk to Commanding Officers in the field, even when they lose one person it is a huge loss. The pressure was mounting from within the military. I think any smart army chief as to listen to the troops. When he meets his formation corpsders and then the commanders. General musharraf who was he army chief and president concurrently never once visited fatah after having sent troops to fight there. Theres no evidence of him having traveled to meet the troops in the field. The civilian leadership does not do that either. That is a mindboggling thing for an observer like me. Let me open it up to the audience. Let me go to the back first or if you would, please come identify yourself. Also want to let everybody know, i will take down the names and keep reminding me of interest. We will put a whole set on a website so it will be available to all of you for information. Please identify yourself and ask your question. Good morning everybody. I am at the embassy of pakistan. I have a short comment and then a question. The short comment, im giving with conviction because i have been a part of it myself. When we think about the four years lost, what went in those four years needs to be identified from the point of view of what was the army is in at those times. May,s starting off from october, meanwhile, in between, almost all of the seven agencies were busy. Strikes that were regularly being taken on the actions. It is important to note that what was going on in addition to the floods and the turn show reigns and the earthquake that took place. All of them, the Pakistan Army was involved. D. In what is going to happen, what is going to be the effect between the relations in the whole region and what are we seeing . Theres not going to be two months or a shorter time in which everything will get settled. It will take some time for the area to get settled in for the army to remain deployed and the it can draw down a little. They can only take those numbers for that much more time. Would like to answer about the future prospects echo i will acknowledge that he is very right. Considered ae valid critique. They were successes because the lack of Infrastructure Development and lack of other institutions capacity. Whenever theres a flood or a crisis. We now know the one of the leading politicians was marching toward islamabad. They asked army to secure islamabad. They had responsibilities and the army was stretched thin. That is a valid point. I concede that. Been 100 ave for that. View will be, my brief on that. There are now three things that are happening. It is no more what is happening in that region it is no more dependent on u. S. pakistan relations. The path of some resolution and there is an improvement in relations. The engagement to train pakistani and u. S. Security officials has really improved. Pakistan isbetween as important. These are three different tracks. They are not directly linked. The next challenge of the next issue or initiative will not only be defined by pakistan u. S. Relations. It will be dependent upon pakistan india relations. Incursions into pakistan. Is not a clear understanding and coordination and cooperation between pakistan and afghanistan. I think is the best thing that iure if did that think that relationship is also or a combination of those three tracks and relationships will define the future of the area. About four months ago, the was being of ttp agents. Ied by the he was caught on the way to kabul by the u. S. Special forces. Itram. Taken to buy fro conspired that iran had been constantly supplying the ttp. What more evidence can there be that the number two man is caught soon after that. He was killed by a drone strike soon afterwards. Other than that, he had been living openly in the province. If he ever shows up in this area, he would not last a day. Kinase the hakkanis, if you were to look at them, they are facially and structurally totally different from all the others. You can make out a hakkani straightaway. Them hiding among them would be very realistic. Lately, theres evidence from what is happening on the ground that these people who went across the border, they are in camps literally close to the border without any interdiction. There is atime that crossborder attack, they dont have the artillery. Where is the artillery coming from . Kinase alsohe high have no place to hide. They are most of them across the border. I dont think the Iran National army is taking them on. They may be helping them, but as far as the ttp is concerned, i am under no illusion that they i want toped by go back to something that was said. Theres another factor. When you have a counterinsurgency, you require a lot of helicopter support. I was a helicopter pilot myself. They are in the last stages of their engine life. It is difficult to continue without refurbishing them. Now that the m i17s have been refurbished and we have room us from the uae and several helicopters of command, also the ammunition depletion was at a critical state about two years ago. , think a number of factors to go back to what you said about the collective decisionmaking, if you had heard what the corps commanders, he wouldve been out for years ago. They wanted him out. Canny who general said no, we must let democracy succeed. I am no great support of general canny. He kept his commanders in line. He did not allow that to happen. The relief part is of course something that we must work on. The real part is the application. If you take a person and put them across the road in a cap. He is disrupted. He is not happy. We take him 500 miles away, he is happy. If you want to bring them back and you have a house totally cut and without electricity, you which must ben addressed. The habitation something must be worked upon. My theory is that the economic we must give them a means of livelihood. Must give them reason to protect that means of livelihood. Thank you. Is, even though five generals were retired, three of them havent had combat experience. After that retirement in october, there will not be a single threestar general in the Pakistan Army who has not had combat experience of some kind. That is very important. Fellowa man has seen his soldiers lying dead, he cannot see the consequences of leaving them into battle. Educated. Sharper he is, the experience, he is better trained. He is committed to democracy. Actually, for the last problem with the plan, we knew it for months before the operation was launched that the military was coming. I look for the news item. When was the first time we heard that people had started moving out of North Waziristan. Thest four months before operation began. Not that it was intended, because the militants had now developed the roots in mainstream areas where they can launch movements. They knew there was some deployment or some movement happening close to the other areas. And they started moving out. Many of the militants moved out. It is comparable to when someone in washington dc says the , then it hadave negative complications and was very difficult to decide on that count. Im pretty sure that as a result, the counterterrorism plan for the whole of pakistan should be linked or related to this operation. That is not visible. That would include karachi, area. And the whole indeed, the capital area. The fact that they called an army, which i have an issue with. So long as civilians will on a military to discipline jobs, the military will keep on thinking that they can someday come up and clean it. Whenever whenever they have tried, they have made a mess of pakistan. Civilians have to start investing and civilian institutions. Military should not of been called into islamabad. I say this with all humility, but something which i will also check, but because it is an important point, about what he mentioned about the future of group. To the best of my knowledge, it comes from graduates of the hakkani group. All the other groups look for a similar. That is 1. I will also check. Not to the best of my knowledge. That is one thing that i will also check. Not to the best of my knowledge. I really appreciate i feel like we have learned a lot about the who and what has been going on. I wanted to get at the underlying why. In your opinion, to the militants have any legitimate reason grievances with the government . And if so what are they . What has made it in their minds that it is their will to fight instead of copper a . Why do they go down this path . Quarks these are backward areas, very underdeveloped. Nobody ever bothers to push Industry Services into this area. Just to give you an idea, and i want to give this as a statistic. I have 15,000 people working for me in my private security company. 600 people from south and North Waziristan. Withnever had a problem them. Some of them have been with the 15 years. Incomee people have an that they can send back to their families, their ok. If you do not have income or a means of livelihood, if youre just going to be a gun for hire, you could be a gun for anybody, whether it is a smuggler or what have you. Youre just a gun for hire. That is what they do. They live off the road. Anybody that stops on the road, the ticket tax from him. You have got to give them a means of livelihood. As a legitimate grievance. Number two is the sense of justice. They have their tribal justice. They have their own sense of justice. A classic case where you have local justice prevailing and they were quite happy about it and then suddenly you had a jurisdiction of the Supreme Court and everybody came in with the constitution. Then there was a high court and a Supreme Court. They had a legitimate grievance. You have to bring it down. The most important point, which i fought for this government, also. The basic state holder has no say in the government. We have a feudal system. The feudal system persists. The less you bring democracy down to the lower levels, youre going to have someone decides that they will have a school rather than have the local board decide. Heres the money and how i am just going to use it. What is the Justice System at the local level . That is a legitimate agreement grievance and i agree with that. Baseer time, the economic of these groups has changed. Many of them are now criminal activities. They are in the drug trade and the smuggling business. They are basically imposing their own taxes in their areas. That is now mixed with the deprivation which fatah as an entity has suffered. Lets move to the front now and then i will go around to the back again. Please. Thank you so much. Im a former world bank official. Failed idps and relief. My question is more on the timing of return. Second, if you could comment on your recent book, the most difficult question you had to handle and if you could comment on that. Since you are from the world bank. One of the problems which is being faced today is to deliver. Oney to the idps as you know, the World Bank Works on the fact that in pakistan only 15 of the people have access to banking. The bankingof system. The whole of pakistan. Idps are 100 of the banking system. They are trying to get money the point is, youre bringing technology in and bringing a lot of effort into this thing. Theeast, i can say this, government is trying. It is not for lack of effort. I think the effort can be more has been, as he saying. Much more effort is required. Basically, you have got to give the Tribal Society is broken up mostly. You have to give them that amount of decisionmaking process. It should be for their own communities. That is very important. The local communities must decide what is good for them, not what someone sitting in islamabad decides. Without knowing anything about the typography or the demography. You can shed light on another conundrum that arises in this process. These figures that are being bandied about, the number of idp is. How is it that the population of 400,000 in 1998, even with the 2. 9 annual increase is now over one million in registered idps . I think it is a pretty important point which tells us the fact that even the 1990 eight cents this is not accurate. It was not done in any professional manner. We kept on saying throughout the last decade, there are 3. 5 Million People who live in fatah. Mentioned 5lso million. When i was to pick this right , i used to use the figure of 7 million. Ask her to buy my own friend who said there should surely be between 10 and 12 million. This person is producing some of fatah by therts on british government. Were doing a lot of work in the field. Maybe 78 for sure. That was one thing. Secondly, even in North Waziristan, the people in these days who are not coming from the north. Theyre coming from other areas as well. Because of the lack of the infrastructure and economic issues, others who think each person will get a check, this is a good opportunity. If there is no economic activity, you would like to go and get that checked. Theres at the show as well. Then there is the wrong assessment. There was this issue of how they came up with these assessments. I link this assessment with no bad intention, but with work capacity to analyze. The hakust talk about kani group. We learned that these groups are to thesing information taliban. They were not only involved on the afghan side. They had links with criminal groups in north pakistan. Who is the beneficiary . Pakistani taliban. Something has to be done about the analytic cold capability of the pakistani government. But the absence of the capture or killing of any of these big leaders still remains a very open question. Nassari. E to dr. No practices a unique learning experience to hear these three it distinguished experts talking about that area which has been affecting us all this time. I am a pakistan american league. The comments about the army and the area of disconnect. Thently, in pakistan, entire higher echelon of the army, i found them converging with total consensus. They were really speaking with one voice. Sometimes, that is because of the politicians statements and other things that irritate them. Other than that, theyre working together in an army unit. They were working closely with this administration. He might be which we dont. Reward to terrorism. The enemy is faceless. Even the superpowers have generally failed in this territory. Given a timeline or a timeframe, our closure of this war is very difficult to get. The real test will come after december. Time, to rehabilitate all these people about the numbers we are disputing. Since the afghani taliban would be under pressure by the afghan forces, there is a high desertion rate. He will be under pressure, the afghani taliban, by the afghan forces. They will be under pressure either Pakistan Army. Ofthere any possibility applying the doctrine of necessity that they might start working together, taking both sides as a common enemy . Back whoose in the couldnt hear the doctor. There are 2. 2 is making. In his own visit to pakistan he saw a great convergence among all the military people that he the aims of this exercise. The question was, is a possibility of the afghan and Pakistani Taliban joining hands. I think early this year the Pakistan Army intercepted several sources. There is a delay. This was a message. At that point, it became a nightmarish possibility. Was after the post2014 drawdown. I have no doubt in my mind that whatever the differences are, at the end of the day, they are one thus far as ideology is concerned. The second part, which is that you said that the Afghan Taliban will be under pressure from the afghan forces. I think it is the other way around. The forces will be under pressure from the taliban. Having eliminated this last stronghold, we have done a tremendous favor to the Afghan National forces by not allowing their logistics to take place from this place. It will have to really recapture this area from the Pakistan Army to do this. Obviously, i have no blueprint. I can only take my guess is from other things. Thecommitment ive seen in Pakistan Army which ive never seen in all my life. It is something which is amazing. Pleasure to get the feedback from them. In my own unit, take it for my was in southch waziristan for two years. Talk with them regularly. People, 9000 rx servicemen. All the mongols, brothers, cousins, what have you, and the armed forces. You have regular feedback on what is happening. My own feeling is, the optimism is there. Whether it is misplaced optimism i do not know. I think the optimism is there. Hassan has a very good point. You have to activate. We do not have a National Security status. We do not have a National Security strategy. The civil government has to spell out a strategy. Once you have set up National Security, theres a Common Minimum Program which all the Political Parties agree on, then you can go ahead and do all the things within that framework. In a framework we disagree, you can sit down and debate. Add briefly like to . I understand your hope. You need very well when you say this, because you want to see pakistani democracy flourished. Hope is that a method. It is not about only convergence. Civilian supremacy. Civilians have to decide and make policy decisions. An armys implementation takes orders fromkings civilian population is important. Military officers are paid government officials. They have to always be subservient to and respectful towards military leadership. Aat is happening in democratic transition. One point about convergence of Afghan Taliban and the Pakistani Taliban. We will see some action. Unit goesis military on the side of the taliban. General since the vietnam war died in action if i am correct. That was recently in National Defense in kabul. These are the signs that the taliban is not going anywhere. On the pakistani side, i was more hopeful. The way they have expanded their in the province in karachi, theres no signs of any effective cord needed action, the rise of the Pakistani Taliban may be under a different name. I think that is not possible, it is highly likely. At some stage, the convergence of interests and coming together some of the militant sides, i hope to be proved wrong about the title of my book. The future of the political crisis will be a major factor in deciding what is going to happen on the side of the Afghan Taliban. We have a question in the second row. If you could stand up and identify yourself and ask your question. Im a recent graduate of the university of texas. Operation wasthe very strategically handled by the Pakistan Army. Also the government is trying to target. My question is that keeping in mind the border between afghanistan and pakistan, do think operations open and do you think operations in northern wires down will put an end to the taliban factories . The freedom that they had. It was possible that they have some hideouts in the mountains. The freedom of movement that they could actually roam around century they that had is not possible. Strategically, the Pakistan Army and air force wanted to go there in the end of february. The time the operation to lace, one hour after the last folding finished in the afghan president ial election. They timed it so that once wastions are over, the hit by the air force mostly. I want to go back to something interesting. You mentioned karachi. I have lived in karachi. It is a far better place than what it was a year back. Force to a quasimilitary called the rangers. The pakistan rangers. As of that, the targeted killings have come down. Large portions of karachi are dominated by the taliban, that is totally untrue. False. Some Political Parties to dominate that area. The np dominate some areas, the people dominate some areas. The taliban may certainly be there. Of karachi are dominated by the taliban. The rangers have done a good job over the last eight months, nine months, to restore law and order. Caughtave been people away days ago one street from one of the leaders house. Hes a confessed killer. He only killed about 72 people. He confessed it. Can you take or is someone who is killed 72 people and say he is politically motivated . That is is a question in the back. After that i would like to come to the front over here. These will be the last two questions. Im so sorry. We are running out of time. Go ahead. Good morning. [indiscernible] my question is really concerned it seems to me the Pakistani Army is stretched too thin. Some in a different provinces within pakistan that are having to come back. The army is stretched. What is that mean for development . I am concerned about the human impact. The question is about the Economic Impact on pakistans economy as a whole. The me take another question and then we will have both of you answer them. Go ahead. For your very informative presentation. Thedoes the panel view appointment of special representative by china for afghanistan recently . A special representative of china for afghanistan and pakistan. This is very late in the game. Let me go back to the young man over there who i was going to ignore because of the time, but i think if you can get a question and we can get an answer. Can you comment on the security articles in light of 2, 4 and five, especially with maybe that might undermine gains in North Waziristan. The question is about the imposition of article 245, which in aid. Ing the military as of today, section 144 has been imposed on islamabad, which means you can have a gathering of more than four people in the public. To the next. If you wouldnt mind trying to wrapnd to these, that will us up. Im not qualified to answer more about idps. I will focus on this. I think the civilian Law Enforcement agencies lack the support 144. It will be a good test to see. This they will be looking for this opportunity to conduct terrorist attacks in islamabad. Again, i think pakistani neither pakistani intelligence nor the police have the capacity to stop suicide bombers. That is why the government is ready nervous about this issue. Will see this kind of absence of capacity there. Lock tobe coincidence, save pakistan from a security threat. China is very insightful. It is coming. Iranian influence, chinese influence is increasing. Theres no doubt about it. Time, had the first police training. He was the, the focuses only on the economic factors. We have seen this change. I think they have choreographed it very statistically from their point of view. In some ways it can be good. More regional and National Interest in afghanistan, so far, is only the night is dates some of its allies which took the main responsibility in afghanistan. If china is taking more responsibility and initiative from other countries, in principle that should be a good sign. My own personal information from the chinese, they have expressed an interest in participating in peacekeeping on a much larger scale than before. Even now, there are 600 peacekeepers for the u. N. I think one more reason which people are aware of, but it dont think it comes out, is that the chinese have strategically decided to have a economicakistani corridor. Theyre investing money inroads and railways. That is attached to the Peoples Liberation army in 1970i was a helicopter pilot. Based wonder where the hell the road was going to and where was it coming from. Now they have 20 billion every year invested in the province. Theyre absolutely determined to get this road through. Makes sense for them to have somebody for this area, there are some who would interact with the government so if theres any this will goause right through the center, through this area where the trouble is taking part. There are Railway Lines and spike lines, you will have problems. They are investing a lot in the power stations. All these power stations are strong north and south along this area. To answer your question about they my own feeling is that the Pakistan Government will not be able to do it without help from outside agencies. They must take help from specialized agencies like unesco and all these different agencies. The World Food Program is artie there helping out. I think that is already there helping out. I believe there is coordination at the government level going on. Factor oristurbing handicap is the fear for the safety and security. That is the only thing. Thatovernment is insisting even if his agencies have to operate in this area, they must have a pakistani element rather than from outside persons coming in. One figure which has been cited that the government of pakistan related to the costs of the Security Operations and the cost to the economy over the last decade, plus, has been upwards of 60 billion to the pakistan economy. Numbers, but those that is a very fitting and to this very rich conversation, which included military tactics and strategy and discussion of the civilian aspects and the economy. I think the critical part that is still missing, and it is still too early to say when ends, tell me how this ends. I think nobody yet knows how this is going to end. It certainly has raised enough questions and i am very grateful to my guests for helping us understand which way this is going and what the government with the pertinent questions are. Unless pakistani society, pakistan civil government and institutions in the military can get together and carve out a National Strategy this is not going to end well. Optimistic note, i want to thank you for coming. [applause] from the western concert of summit, we will hear from tim scott and mike coffman and ralph reed and a panel on the tea partys influence on the republican party. Republican senator tim scott address the western conservative