Cities like san francisco. Finally was murdered kate steinle was murdered by illegal immigrants. Americans would be alive today if not for the open border policies of obama and clinton. Likeincludes americans josh wilkerson, whose mother i have gotten to know. A student in a high school who 17. Murdered at the age of he was tortured, strangled, beaten to death by an illegal immigrant and then his body was set on fire. Everybody wanted this guy out, wanted him incarcerated. In july, right here in pennsylvania, an illegal immigrant with a previous deportation record, raped a young child. He was set free. Said,ody that knew him please, please do not set him free. Andas set free by weak ineffective leadership. A Trump Administration will end this nightmare of violence. Livesl protect american we will cancel all federal funding to sanctuary cities. We will stop illegal immigration. We will dismantle every last criminal cartel in this country. Police, they know every one of these people. They have to put up with them every day. When we win, you will finally have a government on your side fighting for your community and protecting your family. [cheers and applause] reveal we will rebuild our badly depleted military. For thens new resources nearby Army War College that will train the next generation of army leaders. Mosul because i cannot believe it. We had mosul. We should not have been in iraq, but we had mosul. Clinton and obama did that crazy get out they got out the wrong way. Four months ago, i start hearing, we will take mosul. Whatever happened to the element of surprise . We had most all but we gave it sul but we gave it up. Over iraq. Ing when handed that to them with one of the dumbest deals i have ever seen. The 1. 7 billion in cash that we gave these people. Nation. Er one terrorist now they feel emboldened. They harass our ships and humiliate our sailors. Me, il never happen with promise you that. Ul, we want to get isis leaders. If you want to get them, you do not talk about it. You go get them and have the News Conference later. Wouldnt that be nice . I always say, whatever happened to the element of surprise . Meantime, they are using human shields. We have no choice but to take isis out. They are chopping off heads, doing things not since Medieval Times has anything like this happened. Now hillary is saying, we will get isis. What the hell did she let it start for . Isis is in 32 countries around the world. We have people in leadership that are grossly incompetent and we will change it. Ok . I am honored to have the endorsement of more than 200 top admirals and generals and 22 medal of honor recipients. We saw that last night near fort bragg. We had more people last night than i have tonight, although if you include the people outside, we may have more. [cheers and applause] i am not sure. Hillary clinton brought death and disaster to iraq, syria, libya, and she empowered iran and she unleashed isis all across the world. Hillary and our failed establishment have spent 6 trillion on wars in the middle now that we do not win and the middle east is in far worse shape and far more dangerous than it ever was before. They dragged us into foreign wars, shipped our jobs and wealth to other countries, and left our borders wide open. At home, we have no borders. We send our troops to Foreign Countries to defend their borders but our politicians refuse to defend our borders. That will change on november 8. That will be a big day. A Trump Administration will never, ever put the interest of a foreign country before the interest of our country, ever. People of pennsylvania, to all of the people in the United States, i say, from now one, it is going to be america first. To all americans, i say, it is time for change and time for new leadership. Cannot have four more years of obama because that is what we are having. It is four more years, isis running rampant, no borders, bad jobs the jobs reports are horrible. The jobs report is a disaster. They are all bad jobs. Our good jobs are disappearing. Four more years, we cannot have it. I saw these great admirals last night, great generals. I saw these unbelievably brave recipients of the medal of honor and i said to them, how would you feel to have Hillary Clinton as your leader . And they are wonderful americans. I refuse to tell you what they said, but it was not good, believe me. These great people taking orders from her . Bad judgment, remember. Think about what we can accomplish in the first 100 days of a Trump Administration. We are going to have the biggest tax cut since ronald reagan, and may be bigger. Hillary is going to raise taxes. We are going to eliminate every unnecessary job killing t legislation. We will counsel every obama illegalcancel every obama executive order. Rebuild our military and take care of our great veterans. Takenave been horribly care of. Provide School Choice and then end to common core and put an end to common core. Support the incredible men and women of law enforcement. City, twoew york policeman were horribly shot. It goes on and on and on. Save our second amendment, which is totally under siege. To the uniteds appoint justices to the United StatesSupreme Court that will defend our constitution. Hillary clinton is the candidate of yesterday. Blueprint of the future. This is a great moment, this is a movement that has never happened before ever in the history of our country. There has never been anything like it. I understand how the system works. I understand the system as well as anybody. I was on the other side and i was enjoying it very much. Way. N no longer work that we will not have a country. I went from being an insider did i ever become an outsider . I became a serious outsider. We are all outsiders and that is the way we like it. We are all outsiders. A movement that has never seen before. Them,ndits say, some of say it is the single greatest political phenomenon they have ever seen in this country. [cheers and applause] and it is. Cannot doy we. Nything that is going to stop pennsylvania, you are so important. We are doing great all over the state. I really believe we are going to do well in philadelphia. Do not disappoint us, philadelphia. Much about pennsylvania that is so important. Get out november 8 and vote. We are fighting for every parent who lost their child to gangs and drugs and violence. We are fighting for every community whose jobs have been ripped out and shipped to other countries. We are fighting for every american who believes the government should serve the people. Big asking you to dream because with your vote, and can you believe this, we are just the days away, you will get change you have been waiting for for your entire lifetime. In fourg to happen years. This is it, folks. In four years, it will be a whole different situation. It will never, ever happen again. Make americawill wealthy again. We will make america strong again. We will make america safe again. We will make America Great again. God bless you, everybody. Go out and vote. Thank you. A look at some of the 2016 campaign advertising. We begin with the donald trump campaign. After that, the Hillary Clinton campaign. Our movement is about replacing a failed uncorrupt political establishment failed and corrupt political establishment. The establishment has trillions election. In this ,or the global specialinterest they do not have your good in mind. A political establishment trying to stop us is the same Group Responsible for disastrous trade deals, illegal immigration, and policies that have led our led our country dry. The political establishment has brought about the distraction of our factories and jobs as they flee to mexico, china, and other. Ountries all around the world it is a global power structure responsible for the economic decisions that have robbed are working class, stripped our country of its wealth, and put that money into the pockets of a handful of large corporations and political entities. The only thing that can stop this corruption machine is you. The only force Strong Enough to save our country is us. The only people brave enough to vote out this corrupt establishment is you the american people. I am doing this for the people and for the movement and we will take back this country for you and we will make America Great again. I am donald trump and i approve this message. President trumps to ban muslims from entering the u. S. Has touched off a firestorm. Saudi arabia, nuclear weapon. Trump saying he would allow russia to run roughshod. He is the apparent victor by less than 1 . I am honored to have the greatest temperament that anybody has. Krapp out of them knock the crap out of him. Issue is the temperament of donald trump. She is a vicious, horrible person. Such a nasty woman. After a gold star family. More reason for people to doubt whether he has the basic temperament. I could stand in the middle of fifth avenue and shoot somebody. Bull who charges without thinking of the consequences. Democratic president ial nominee Hillary Clinton speaking at an Outdoor Campaign rally in detroit. This is just under an hour. . Rise up . Ms. Clinton hello, detroit [cheers and applause] thank you. Ill tell you. I am so glad to be back in michigan. [cheers and applause] and that introduction, i am still vibrating from it. I think my longtime friend, reverend wendell anthony, for giving us some of the best lines we have had in the whole campaign. Thank you. There is Something Special about this place and some of you may recognize the song that was playing when i came in, and amazing anthem called rise up. And that is what detroit is doing. You are rising up. And that is exactly what we are going to do in america, we are going to rise up and make sure the American Dream is enough for everyone. I am looking forward to working with the great team you have here in detroit, and in michigan. I want to thank your senators, your members of congress, congressman john conyers, sandy levin, Brenda Lawrence and debbie dingo, and i want to thank your great mayor, mayor mike duggan. Thank you. Wayne county executive lauren evans. Sheriff benny napoleon. The president of the uaw, dennis williams. Longtime friends and former colleagues of mine, senator carl levin and his wife, barbara, are here. And to all who are present today , i was delighted my friend and supporter mark cuban could be here, because he is not only a real billionaire [laughter] he has actually shared his profits with his employees. Now, are you ready to vote on tuesday . [applause] are you ready to volunteer to get everybody out to vote . Are you ready to choose our next president and commander in chief . Did any of you see the three debates that we had . Well, i spent four and a half hours standing next to donald trump, proving once and for all i have the stamina to be the next president. He kept saying a lot of unusual things, didnt he . And, you know, there is a certain preparation you do to be ready for those debates. I did it, because i think you should prepare to be the president of the United States. And i did practice my composure. People said to me, how did you do that . The things he was saying, and in the second debate when he was following you around and lurching over you, i said well, i did practice, and i had my friends and my family spent hours saying terrible things to me, so i was ready. But he would say what of you done for 30 years . And, you know, i dont want to brag. [cheers and applause] but i do think it matters what you have done, and especially what you have done that may be improved somebody elses life. One of the great joys of this campaign has been traveling around our country meeting people who have been affected by what we have been doing. For example, as first lady, i helped create the Childrens Health insurance program, which covers 8 million kids. These are families that are not poor. They are working people. They dont make enough money. They dont work for somebody who provides insurance. Very often, their kids are being affected by not getting the health care they shouldve had. I met a woman whose baby daughter when she was born was diagnosed as totally deaf, and the doctor said we are sorry, there is nothing we can do for her. But this mother, like many mothers i know, did not take that for an answer, right . She got on the internet. She began to research. She found there were treatments she could maybe provide to her little daughter, but they were expensive. She and her husband didnt have the kind of money and they didnt have insurance. She went to the Doctors Office and she was distraught. Her doctor said there is a new thing called the Childrens Health insurance program. Maybe you should look into it. It turned out she was eligible. She signed up. She started giving her daughter the best Health Insurance in this Health Insurance, that everybody in this country should be able to have, by the way. When i was in north carolina, i heard about her, and i got to meet her, and i met her daughter who talked to me and just graduated from college because she got the health care and the treatment that she deserved to have. I tell you what. That is how i judge the last 30 years. Have i done something to help somebody out . I am well aware of the blessings i have had. I want to be sure all of us figure out a way to pay it forward and make it possible for more families, more kids to have the chance to live up to their own godgiven potential. I was a senator in new york on 9 11, so i know what can happen, the evil and the hatred of terrorism. I saw it, and i spent my time helping to rebuild new york city and get health care for the brave First Responders who ran toward danger, not away from it. Our police, our firefighters, our emts. And i tell you who else we have covered. We have construction workers who ran with their supplies and their tools. I see one right out there who knows exactly what im talking about. All across the city, people were leaving their job sites and rushing toward danger. That was america at its best, and dont ever forget what we are capable of being, who we are. We are not afraid. We are brave, courageous people who will do our best if given the chance. Answer secretary of state, i went to 112 countries as your secretary of stay, i went to one hundred 12 countries, negotiated ceasefires, reduced nuclear weapons, stood up for womens rights, human rights, and lgbt rights. I am telling you this because i want you to know that i will do everything i can if i am honored to be your president , i will get up every day in that white house and i will go to work for you and your family to make it possible for you to get the chances and the opportunities you deserve to have. I want you to have a candidate you can vote for, not just someone to vote against. Tim kaine and i have run a Campaign Based on issues and ideas, not on insults. If you really take a look at what is at stake in this election, it is a choice between two very different visions for america. When i hear my opponent talk about america, i dont recognize the country he is talking about. It is so dark, so divisive, so hateful. That is not the america that i believe in. I believe that we should have a confident, optimistic, inclusive vision of where we are going and how we are going to get there. I love our country, and i believe in the american people, and i think there is nothing we cant achieve if we Work Together, set some goals, go after them. We believe in an america that is bighearted, not small minded. We believe in an america that is already great, but can be greater if we do our part. And we believe america is great because america is good. Never forget that. If we lift each other up and not tear each other down, we can go even further. I believe with all my heart that we are stronger together. So, come next january 20, america is going to have a new president. [applause] i know that a lot of people say they want change. Let me tell you this. Change is inevitable. There will be change. The question is what kind of change are we going to have . Are we going to build a stronger, fairer, debtor country . Better country . Or are we going to fear the future and each other . I sure hope not. That is not the america i believe we are, so here is what i want to ask you to do. I want you to talk to your friends, your family, your neighbors. Michigan is one of the states that does not have early voting. I have been all over the country going to states that already have early voting. 32 Million People have already voted in those states. But michigan votes on tuesday. I imagine some of you know people who say they are going to vote for donald trump, right . I know. I know. I understand that. I mean, i would hope you would try to stage an intervention before its too late. But maybe you could ask them with you to imagine january 20, 2017. Imagine that my opponent is taking the oath of office in front of the capital. Ol. Capita imagine having a president who demeans women, mocks the disabled, who insults africanamericans and latinos and muslims, who personally engages in busting unions and preventing people from having the rights to bargain collectively. Now, we really dont have to imagine what that would be like, because everything he has said and done both in his career and in this campaign tells you what could happen. Michelle obama, who says so many wise and wonderful things, she said the presidency doesnt change her you are, it reveals who you are. And i think we have seen who donald trump is. Maya angelou, another great american, said when someone shows you who he is, believe him the first time. If my opponent were to win, we would have a president who has only ever been in it for himself. Just last year he said again it would not have mattered if we rescued the Auto Industry or let it go bankrupt. What is he talking about . I proud to president saved the Auto Industry. I am proud of that president obama saved the Auto Industry. And i am even prouder that because of the hard work of people in detroit, across michigan in the u. S. , the u. S. Auto industry just had its best year ever. If donald wins the election, we would have a president who wants to ban every muslim in the world from coming to visit the United States. We are a country founded on religious freedom. That runs contrary to our constitution. We would have a president who has said repeatedly that he thinks the lives of black people are all about crime and poverty and despair. He has no idea about the strength of the black church and the vibrancy of blackowned businesses, the excellence of historically black colleges and universities. He seems to know nothing about the rise of a new generation of black activists and the success of black leaders in every field. I think he needs a visit from reverend wendell anthony, dont you . Yesterday in north carolina, i was honored to stand with a woman named mae brown wiggins. Decades ago, she was a hardworking nurse in new york city. She was looking for an apartment she could afford to rent, but donald trump and his fathers father turned her away. Whenever she and her africanamerican friends try to rent an apartment, their application was marked with a c, c for colored. She went to the department of justice and eventually they sued the trumps for housing discrimination. And although they settled, they wouldnt change, so the government had to take them back to court. Thats a pattern. This is what happens time and time again with my opponent. If he were to win, he would be in charge of the federal housing department. If he does not respect all americans now, how can we trust him to serve all americans in the future . He has such a casual disregard of our constitution. He does not seem to understand the rule of law, we really are a nation of laws, not men. Here is the latest example. A terrible crime back in 1990 in new york city. It was called the central park five. There were five black and latino kids, some as young as 14. They were wrongfully convicted and they were in prison, where they spent years. Donald trump took out fullpage ads calling for the death penalty. Even after they were exonerated, and someone else confessed, trump said they should still be in prison. It does not matter if you are innocent. If he decides you should be in prison, or you should be locked up [laughter] [cheers and applause] no wonder he admires vladimir putin. That is exactly what he does to his people. We cannot trust him with our constitution. We cannot trust him to obey the rule of law. He has shown us who he is. We have to decide who we are. Let me paint you a different picture. Here is what we are going to do together. If we win this election on tuesday night [applause] we have three big challenges. We have to get the economy working for everyone, not just those at the top. We have to keep our country safe and we have to work with our allies to leave the world with strength and intelligence for lead the world with strength and intelligence for peace and prosperity. We have got to bring our country together. We have got to overcome these divides. We have to heal our nation. I hope that you will help me meet all three of those challenges. [cheers and applause] i have said repeatedly that we will take on discrimination and bigotry because any time we hold somebody back, it can lead to holding other people back. We cannot accept as normal as we are seeing across our country because of his campaign. A church in mississippi was burned this week. Onone painted vote trump the side and then set it on fire. We cannot let that happen. What happened in flint, michigan, should not be normal or acceptable. Our kids should be guaranteed clean air and clean water. Those are basic. We have got to do everything we can to make sure we take care of our children. It is important for us to recognize that when i talk about getting the economy to work for everybody, that means i want the biggest jobs Program Since world war ii. Infrastructure, advanced manufacturing, Green Renewable Energy technology. Some people say we cannot do that. I am telling you they are wrong. We have the best workers, the most productive workers. We will give them more to work on, more products to produce. [cheers and applause] and we will do more for small business. Small business is the backbone of so many communities. I want everybody to have the chance to succeed in america. We will dismantle the socalled school to prison pipeline and replace it with the cradle to college pipeline. I want to start with our youngest kids. Prekindergarten programs and then i want to be a good partner with our teachers. We have to have High Expectations and get results in helping our children. I want to be sure that we put Technical Education back into high school because there are good jobs out there waiting for young people with the skills to do them. [cheers and applause] it will be important that we create an environment which our police and communities can Work Together and trust each other. I believe we are safer when everyone has respect for the law and everybody is respected by the law. That is what we are going to work for. We are going to take steps to reduce gun violence and save lives. [cheers and applause] this has nothing to do with scare tactics coming from my opponent. He is wearing a camo hat now. [laughter] really . We are going to work with responsible gun owners, who understand that weve got to keep guns out of the hands of people who should not have them in the first place. [cheers and applause] while we create more safe communities we want to invest in those communities. I want to continue the good work our past two democratic president s have done, one named clinton, one named obama. [cheers] and i want to be a Strong Partner. I will compete a little with them. I want to be a Strong Partner with detroit and other cities who are on the way back up, the housing and the jobs that you need. To make sure you get the investment and support for the housing and the jobs that you need. But we also have to make sure our economy is more fair. We should raise the National Minimum wage. People who work fulltime should not be left in poverty. Isnt it time to guarantee equal pay for women . [cheers and applause] this is not a womans issue. If you have a wife, a mother, a daughter, a sister, it is your issue. It is a family issue. Every time i talk about wanting to have affordable childcare, paid family leave, equal pay for women the other side accuses me of playing the woman card. I will tell you what, if standing up for equal pay is playing the woman card then deal me in. [cheers and applause] one of the other big challenges we are going to take on, i am so excited about this. Im proud of the Campaign Bernie Sanders and i ran. It was a campaign about issues. And what we decided after it was over is how we could Work Together to make sure everybody who wants to go to college can afford not just to start but actually to graduate. [cheers and applause] so we came up with a plan that if you go to a Public College or university, you will go tuition free if your family makes less than 125,000 a year. And it will be debt free for everybody above that. So you dont go into debt. For people who already have student that, we are going to help you pay it down and pay it off to get out from under it. I want especially to support historically black colleges and universities who have done so much to bring forth leadership in our country. This is just some of what we are offering in this campaign. We believe you need to look at what will happen after the election. A friend said to me, people are just frustrated and angry. I get that. I understand that. We had the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression in 2008 and 2009. Millions of people lost their jobs. Millions lost their homes. Family wealth was wiped out. That is a trauma. People are still suffering and still climbing back from that. I get it. But i learned a long time ago from my late mother anger is not a plan. Right . Be angry. Then roll up your sleeves and get to work. That is what i will do. That is why we put this on our website. Hillaryclinton. Com. Not only do i want you to know what i will try to do as your president , i want you to hold me accountable. I want you, when i come back to detroit, which i will do, when i travel around michigan, which i will do, i want you to say how is it going getting those new job started . How much progress are we making making sure colleges affordable . College is affordable . I believe in making lists. Maybe it is a woman thing. [cheers and applause] my husband once said to me, you have lists of your lists. Well, i do. I want to know what we are going to get done and how we can make progress together, and ultimately this election is about the kind of country we want for our kids, and in my case, now my grandkids. Are we a nation that believes in freedom and justice for all . Are we really a nation that recognizes our best years can be ahead of us if we make of our minds to have that . Make up our minds to have that be our goal . I believe we can do it together. My up and said, i alone can fix it. Nobody alone does anything. When our founders met in philadelphia, it wasnt one person creating our country. It was many people working together and fighting a revolution to get that democracy, and to fight for civil rights, and voting rights, and womens rights, and lgbt rights. None of them were won by one person alone. The American Labor party didnt happen because one person said i can make it happen. Barack obama wasnt put into the white house by one person alone. It took everybody working and organizing and voting. That is how progress happens in america. So really, it comes down to you, my friends. You have to vote. Our progress is on the line. Everything that has happened until this point is on the line. Im ready to defend and build on the progress that we have made. I am proud i was a member of president obamas cabinet. Im proud he and i are friends. But he knows and i know american leadership, american president s, it is like running a relay. You do your very best and then you pass on the baton and hope the person you pass it off to doesnt drop to the ground or doesnt run back the way we came from, which is what my opponent is promising to do. Now, i have told the president , when he hands off the baton, he is going to have to bend over because he is a lot taller than i am but i am excited about what we can do. There has been a tough campaign. People are saying they have migraines they never had before. They had stomachaches they dont know what they are going to do with. I get it. It has been a really tough campaign. But i will tell you what, michigan, you could make the difference. All i am asking you is to talk to your friends, talk to your family, talk to your coworkers, talk to everybody. If you have time to volunteer, go to Hillary Clinton. Com to volunteer. Or text join to 47246. When your children there are beautiful children in this crowd today when your children or grandchildren ask what you did in 2016 when everything was on the line, i want you to be able to say, i voted for a better, stronger, fairer america. [cheers and applause] an america where we build bridges, not walls. [cheers and applause] and where we prove once and for all that love trumps hate. Lets get to work. Thank you. Thank you, detroit. Thank you, michigan. God bless you. Just a small town girl living in a lonely world she took the Midnight Train going anywhere just a city boy born and raised in south detroit he took the Midnight Train going anywhere a singer in a smokey room the smell of wine and cheap perfume for a smile they can share the night it goes on and on, and on, and on strangers waiting up and down the boulevard their shadows searching in the night streetlight people livin just to find emotion hidin somewhere in the night workin hard to get my fill everybody wants a thrill payin anything to roll the dice just one more time some will win some will lose some were born to sing the blues oh, the movie never ends it goes on and on, and on, and on strangers waiting up and down the boulevard their shadows searching in the night streetlight people livin just to find emotion hidin somewhere in the night dont stop believin hold on to that feelin streetlight people dont stop believin hold on streetlight people dont stop believin hold on to that feelin streetlight People White House coverage continues at 10 a. M. Eastern with donald trump speaking at a Campaign Rally in tampa, florida. At 4 00, a rally in fort myers, florida with senator tim kaine of virginia. Live at 8 p. M. Eastern in philadelphia, Hillary Clinton speaking at a rally. Expected todayy on cspan. In the latest edition of Time Magazine and available online, how the media got smarter about calling elections. Haley sweetland is following the story and joins us on the phone. Thank you for being with us. Let me begin with the question. How so . 2000s, therly media messed up a lot. Foralling the 2000 election al gore and then for bush and then for neither. They formed the National Election poll. Hiredired a new pollster, Edison Research, very well respected. They pledged before congress that they would not call an election based on exit poll results before they had the final before the polls closed. That was a major difference beginning in 1980. Networks would call elections before the polls closed. The last thing they did was really interesting wishes instead of allowing exit poll to newsrooms to become available to reporters, available to bankers sitting at the desk, the pressure to report is huge they chose to put it into quarantine. Five big news outlets abc, nbc, cbs, cnn and fox news data analysts to a room with no phone, no computer, no tablets. They look at the election data all day long and analyze it, question it, poke it, make sure it is robust before reporting that to their individual outlets. In your piece, this all begins at 6 00 in the morning east coast time on election day and continues route the day. How does Edison Research the turn where they send canvassers and one of the asking . Great question. It is an Incredible Army of people. Edison research sends out about a little more than 1000 surveyors and ap has their own army of stringers and members that have about 4000 more people reporting back from county seats. Between the two of those outlets, there is an absolute a norm is a number of people. By the big Media Outlets as part of the National Election pool. The National Election pool comes up with the questions on this questionnaire, this exit poll questionnaire and it is a twopage one page questionnaire with two sides. 20 questions, 15 to 20 questions. We dont know what the questions are now but they were again arrived at by committee with abc, nbc, cbs, everyone else. They will go out to randomly selected rethinks. That is interesting. They dont choose precincts in key swing areas. There randomly selected. That will be whatever data they get and they will talk to about 100,000 people leaving the polls. That information will be combined with telephone calls that Edison Research has been conducting over the last week with people who have voted early and absentee voters. Is this not only who voted on election day so the elections and call the early, but also why the voted the way they did . Exactly. We dont know exactly what is on their but we know generally, we know every voter who is called ahead of time and absentee or early voter, or asked at the bowl when they are leaving, they will be asked who they voted for and they will be in a gubernatorial basis. There will be asked why, the general feelings about the major candidates, and there will be asked about which issues are important to them. On this particular questionnaire, there are questions about pension, euthanasia, marijuana big topline issues like that. Long way frome a 1948 when the Chicago Tribune called a winner. That is right. That is the Chicago Tribune headline which says Dewey Defeats Truman and that was the factor that hangs over the media on Election Night. You dont want to screw it up that badly again. There is a very robust understanding i talked to a lot of people in that quarantine room. A very profound feeling that this time they have absolutely got to get it right. If there is a question, if it comes down to very close calls, most of the vote has been counted but it is a tight race and the loser can still pull it out, they will not call it. We will look for your reporting online. Haley sweetland, thank you for being with us. Thank you for having me. Election night on cspan, watch the results and be part of a National Conversation about the outcome. The on location at the Hillary Clinton and donald trump Election Night headquarters and watch victory and concession speeches in key races starting line at 8 p. M. Eastern and throughout the following 24 hours. On cspan, sees been at work or listen to our live coverage with the free cspan radio at. Pp. Next, discussion about the impact of the 2016 election. And the Usled Coalition fighting and sizes. Speaking, the former iraqi ambassador to the united nations. This is one hour and a half. Good afternoon, welcome to the Hudson Institute. My name is mike karen, im a senior fellow. We welcome you today to talk we will talk about the u. S. Election and the future of iraq. Very honored to have with us a very distinguished panel. To my immediate left is dr. Nuseva unis, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and director of the councils future of iraq program. Council s future of iraq program. A former iraqi ambassador to the united nations. He is task force on the future of iraq. To her left is dr. Faisal ist istrabadi istrabadi. Hes a former iraqi ambassador to the united nations. He is the founding director of the Indiana University center for the study of the middle east. And hes a fellow of the American Academy of arts and sciences. And to his left is michael pregent, hes a senior fellow here at hudson and hes recently returned from iraq from the front lines. He was mike was a mike was an Intelligence Officer in iraq and hes recently come back from the front lines and without further ado i think ill just turn it over to mike to give us a sense of what he found from his trip in iraq. Mike . Thanks for being on the panel with us today. I recently returned from the front lines where i asked my former peshmerga general i used to work with when i was in uniform in 2005 and 2006 to show me the front lines. He wasnt able to do it initially because hes in be she a, but another kurdish commander was able to take me to the front lines to see what was going on. This panel is about how iraq is looking at the u. S. Election. And what i want to emphasize is its not what theyre looking at next week on tuesday, its what theyre looking at the day after inauguration day. Theyre looking at january 21 and theyre concerned about what the next 80 days look like. E. The mosul operation supposed to wrap up ahead of inauguration day. It is a political timeline set by a president obama and the Prime Minister of baghdad. That rush has me concerned, has the peshmerga concerned, has a lot of iraqis concerned in that ramadi was not a Successful Operation to defeat isis. Fallujah was not a Successful Operation. To create was not tikrit was not a Successful Operation. Y et each is touted on how to do it right. Ramadi i you look at ramadi today, it lies in ruins, its not secured, and the minimal force that iraq has left behind to secure the population from isis is dealing with a resurgence, is dealing with isis attacks so you look at mosul and a Population Center of 1. 2 million with an approaching force of 30,000 coming at it, part of that 30,000 is an unsanctioned force thats been told not to participate by Prime Minister abadi and by the United States. Its not listening to us and Prime Minister abadi. And those are the militias that are controlled by the irgc. And people say thats not true but if you look at the two commanders, the first one is the badr core commander, the second is a designated terrorist who leads a tab hezbollah, a terrorist organization. Then you have another leader of a designated terrorist Organization Called asaab al hall hack, or league of the righteous. They said the mosul isnt about liberating the sunni population from isis or daesh, its an operation to revenge or avenge what happened 1400 years ago. So the biggest problem i have is the comparison that im able to make between 2007 surge and this isis strategy today i was on the ground during the surge and i just recently came back. At no time will we have allowed or been a part of meaning supporting a military force that flies sectarian flags towards a sunni town and thats whats happening today. And as you look at the next 80 days, what can happen in iraq, we should all be concerned that iran, the militias, the parties that dont have the mission of securing the population or defeating isis believe they have 80 days to do as much as they want. This isnt only in iraq, also this in syria. They believe they literally have 80 days to get as much as they can and wait and see to see what happens with the u. S. Election. I wont go into the specifics but we talked about that this morning. Theres some interesting polling numbers coming out of iraq and its not so much as who they prefer, they just want somebody to do something about it. 66 prefer Hillary Clinton, 19 trump. But both believe each will do Something Different than the Obama Administration. And thats whats important here. This current strategy isnt working. The players on the battlefield have priorities. The First Priority should be defeat isis, second priority should be protect the population, third priority should be reconcile with your iraqi sects, meaning the sunni, the christians, the kurds, different groups to make sure baghdad is trusted. Thats not the priority list. Right now you have competing entities in mosul. You have to turks concerned that the shia militia will go after sunni turkmen. Theyre poised for that. You have to turks also concerned about kurdish expansion into mosul. You have the shia militias worried about kurdish expansion, you have to Iraqi Government concerned about kurdish expansion and the only thing we dont have to worry about in the mosul operation is kurdish expansion because the peshmerga are not going into mosul, they are taking blocking positions, they have a limit of advance, they wont be going into mosul because theyre more concerned about whats happening in kirkuk. Theyre concerned about president ha shad al shabby. You have the shia militias, the pmus and the pmfs, off force of 100,000 iraqis, there are christians in there, 1 , sunnis, maybe 3 of the force. The people joining the movement believe they are doing the right thing. They want to go after isis. The leadership has other intentions. The leadership is focused on winning in 2018, getting more leverage over baghdad more than they have and the upcoming 2018 elections but their leaders are rejecting abadis call to not participate and theyve also threatened to not only participate in the mosul offensive but to attack american advisors. Thats concerning. While i was on the front lines we all talk about the shia militias, i saw militia flags flying and sectarian flags flying and i asked an iraqi officer who was there from baghdad, he was the commander or the Operations Officer for an Artillery Battalion and i asked him is that ha shem al shabby and he says no, thats the iraqi army. So its not just the militias carrying these flags, the iraqi army are carrying these flags and every organization from cnn to bbc to al jazeera, anybody whos covering this war, every time they say the Iraqi SpecialOperations Forces are entering mosul and having success ignore the flags in the video theyre showing and they should Pay Attention to it because baghdadi is paying attention to it. He just put out a call to everybody in mosul that the militias are coming. The sunni population is paying attention to it because they saw what happened in ramadi, in fallujah, they saw what happened. If you poll a person from ramadi, youll find they are waiting for the reconstruction money to come in, theyre waiting for their city to at least the semblance of a beginning to rebuild the city, they distrust baghdad more than ever. They distrust United States more than ever and we are simply resetting the conditions that led to isis to begin with in this operation in that these towns arent being liberated. Theyre being laid to ruins. Theyre being the population is being expelled and the strategy, theres such a low benchmark for success in this campaign that the strategy, to me, feels like as long as you can replace an isis flag with an iraqi flag youre finished. As long as you can do that in the city center youre done and thats not how you defeat an organization. The United States military never went into a town one time and claimed success. We learned in fallujah 04, 05, that you cannot destroy a city and expect to kill al qaeda, we just angered it, pushed it somewhere else and it came back with a vengeance. It was only when we tried to build temporary trust between the sunni population and baghdad with the u. S. Being a guarantor that we were able to defeat al point number one, everybody on the ground is trying to improve their position before the new administration comes in under the expectation that the new administration is going to do Something Different and they want to position themselves to influence an administration as best as possible, number two, we have we, the United States, have no vision for the political for the postconflict order that will follow the expulsion of isis. Number three, we are unwittingly handing mosul and more broadly iraq to the iranians and number four we are alienating the sunnis in such a way that we have laid conditions for a return of isis as the defender of the sunnis. Do you disagree with anything i just said . No. Im glad you summarized it that way, it makes more sense than what i just said. What you said made great sense. The thing is, im taking a warning position based on what ive seen in the past, indicators and trends and i respectfully hope you can moderate my comments if they were too alarmist. Im concerned this is a political timeline, not a timeline to defeat isis but a political timeline to claim success and then move to syria. Look over your Left Shoulder and youll see you havent done anything in iraq to defeat isis you simply tell isis that its not wise to put up an isis flag a city and claim it as yours unless you can shoot down american aircraft and thats the biggest Lesson Learned so far in this campaign. Thank you, and with that lets pass it over to the ambassador, thank you for being here, we appreciate it. Well, thank you very much for moderating and i want to thank the Hudson Institute for the invitation to speak here again. I particularly want to thank Michael Prejean for organizing the imagine and as well as to thank all my colleagues on the panel. Let me look at it, if i may, from the perspective of what i think are in iraqs interests. Weve been asked to speak for a relatively brief period of time. Im a former trial lawyer and i usually cant clear my throat in ten minutes but ill see what i can do. I think one of the biggest mistakes that the United States made in circa 2011 was its complete disengagement from iraq. I dont mean necessarily the withdrawal of troops, thats a more subtle question dealing with the i mean, i do wish the United States had maintained troops there but i also understand it from the perspective of the Iraqi Government refusing to give immunity to american troops and all that. Thats a discussion i dont want to have at this moment, ill get into it in questions and answers but i mean the intellectual disengagement and the sort of disengagement at the ground level so that you could treat iraq as a sort of the same way you might have diplomatic relations, say, with switzerland and that really is has been the strategy that if thats the word, that has been the policy in in case for too many years since. That is to say that while iraq is an inspect state and there are certain issues you dont interfere in with respect to independent states so if the then Prime Minister of iraq comes to the oval office and tells the president of the United States that i intend to proffer charges of terrorism against the highest ranking sunni in iraq the proper response two two states dealing with one another sbiptally is well, thats an internal issue and we have no opinion on that which is, of course, precisely what happened. It was easily predictable and many predicted that we were going to head down the road over the spectacular success of isil i dont think anybody predicted but that we were going to head down a road that would result in at least circumstances that are akin to the 2005 and 2006 and that unfortunately is where we ended up in the summer of forty with the fall of the city of mosul in half a business day, iraqs secondlargest city, the population of 1. 8 million. As mr. Prejean said, the u. S. Has not policy for the political dispensation in iraq after isil. Im not talking about the narrower important but narrower issue of who governs in mosul and nineveh, governed after the fall of isil, that was an important question but im talking about the broader strategic question of what does iraq look like. The United States has been focused like a laider beam on the narrow issue of defeating isil militarily in iraq. But not for the political future of the country and i think thats largely been through throughout the Obama Administration. Perhaps even before the Obama Administration. So iraqis i think, have a fairly good sense, an excellent sense of what it is we are fighting against. I think we dont actually know what were fighting for. And i hope that as the obviously obviously within the next few days we will know who the next president of the United States will be, i hope that comes up to a very high level of importance in terms of middle east policy, iraq policy. Iraqis have some decisions to make. Do we, in fact, want to live in a United Country . And if we do, what does that mean. Do we want regionalism . Do we want the Kurdistan Regional model multiplied throughout the country . Do we want, in fact, a true federation. Inherent in all of this is the kurdish question which has been raised although not lately by the president of the krg we have multiple opportunities over the past two and a half years, the president of the krg has talked about a referendum on independence. Fair enough, i think most iraqis would concede if they have a right to independence if they want it. That would be their right. The problem is not that the problem has been that the kurds have neither quite been in nor quite out of the country and this is untenable. If they want their independence, fine, if not, i think that we need to be in a position where all factions actually begin to come together build a cohesive state, which we do not have now and i think that is something that the United States ought to press. I have one more point to make before i give up the floor. Theres something that is unspoken than i know that i havent articulated yet and let me do so so expressly. Former u. S. Ambassador to iraq ryan croccer once said that the americans are hard wired into the iraqi political system. And i agree with him. Many positive things have occurred when the United States has engaged with the iraqi political system and too many negative things have occurred when it has not done so. There are many reasons for this that i dont have time to get into in my main remarks but would be happy to talk about later if it comes up. So its in that spirit that im making all of my remarks. One of the things i think that the new u. S. Administration ought to make an issue that i think is vitally in iraqs interests and that is the management of iraqs relations with its neighbors. Irans influence and physical present in iraq must be reduced. I know thats very easy to say, much harder to do given the histories of the governing Political Parties in the country. The physical presence of turkey in iraq, a nato ally, after all, hopefully the United States still has some influence there, that simply is not acceptable. It is simply not acceptable to have a foreign head of state insisting he has a right to intervene in iraq as a protector of a group in iraq, that simply isnt tolerable, no Iraqi Government can tolerate that sort of interference and its extremely destructive of its an interference which is extremely destructive of the ability of the iraqi Political Class to come to a meeting of the minds as they used to say in the law of contracts. Im a strong believer in a line from the poem by robert frost that strong fences make Good Neighbors and at least since 2003 weve ripped down all of the fences. This is actually one of the consequences of the disillusion of the iraqi army and Security Forces that we have paul bremer to thank for. That particular gift continues to pay dividends more than 12 years after ambassador brehmer left iraq. To pay dividends more than 12 and we have to balance our relationship with saudi arabia. A policy should be it amuses me to put in the these terms because turkey is clearly abandoned the motto but it has to be the motto of peace at home, peace abroad. We will have an iraq knowno piece if we dont strike a balance. We have tilted too far in the direction of bahrain in my view, we need to values between riyadh and ankara and if we dont then the our regional neighbors will continue to find ways of balancing against irans outsized role in iraq. If the iraqi Political Class has not learned that lesson there will be very little room for hope or optimism, it seems to me. Irans role in iraq will always be destructive. Iran will always want a weak iraq. It doesnt matter who governs in iraq. If hamanahis son became the Prime Minister of iraq it will be in irans interest for iraq to be weak. Im not saying we want the chaos they had in 2014. The last point ill make and i have gone over my time, i apologize is that the pmus and militias have to be disbanded after the military operation is over and that is much, much easier said than done. I am told well see if this happens, that after mosul is liberated from isil to expect a fatwa from the grand ayatollah al sistani thanking the rank and file of the pmus and telling them they need to go home. As mr. Prejean said, the leadership of the pmus have entirely different ideas but i have to say, to the extent that we maintain sectarian and nonconstitutionally based militias and allow them to roam freely, i couldnt agree more with mr. Prejean than what he says about were setting up the conditions for isil 2. 0, 3. 0 and 4. 0, we have to look to rebuilding a state of iraq and that is probably harder to do now in 2016 than it might have been in first of all, there was no excuse for disbanding the state of iraq in 2003 in the first place, but i dont get to turn 2 00 back. Its probably harder to do now than in 2003 because there was no trust among the political elites in 2003, there is less trust now than there was then, but its fatal if we are not to continue in this cycle, this sort of vortex increasingly descending at greater and greater speeds into a mortar rat from which it will be impossible to return and if we break apart under these circumstances were far more likely to break apart into than we are into three kurdistan, shia stan and sunni stan. And that should focus the minds of the planners of the next administration wonderfully. Thank you and im sorry i went over my time. Thank you, and at the risk of doing injustice to all that you said if i could turn it into one piece of advice for the next, president , whoever that might be. It would be that they should see the role of the United States as fending off the external players, especially iran, but iran, turkey and saudi arabia to create a space in which the a space in which the iraqis can work out their problems with each other without foreign intervention. That would be the number one priority or have a got that wrong . No, that is the number one priority but second and very closely to it is that the United States must actually also engage the political players inside iraq to help to facilitate, not dictate the term bus to help facilitate a process which leads to a mutually a modus vie venn di. Weve never had a Modus Vivendi since 2003. And certainly obviously the constitution which i think has been a failure did not provide such a Modus Vivendi. So we need to rethink a working, functioning state in a very, very tough neighborhood. Theres the exterm component but there has to be an external component. Thank you. Thank you for coming. The floor is yours and these gentlemen have put some perot vocativ theses on the table for you to address. Thank you very much, one of the things thats been interesting about looking at the iraqi Media Coverage of the u. S. President ial elections has been that the coverage has been very, very sparse. And actually theres been a lot less interest and engagement in iraq as compared with other countries in the middle east in this election. And the reason is that iraqis dont know what to expect from either a trump or clinton presidency. They dont understand how the two possible administrations will differ from the Obama Administration and how they will differ from each other. So thats kind of the first obstacle when iraqis are really looking at this election and trying to figure out what they think and what their opinion is. Actually, the Foreign Policy platforms of these two candidates have been very, very unclear and where they have been pushed theyve been pushed on the syria issue and very rarely asked about what they would do differently in iraq. This has partly been played by the Obama Administration with president obama trying to wrap up the liberation of mosul in a neat little bow to end his presidency with a bang which is not really how counterinsurgency works but he keeps giving the impression hes dealing with iraq and iraq will be done by the time he leaves office and thats not its not at all the case but its rather let the other the candidates often the hook when it comes to explaining what their plan is for stabilization and for continued counterinsurgency operation. Because the liberation of mosul is not the end of this and we really havent heard a strategy from either candidate as to what they are going to do once they reach office. And of course the iraqis are super conflicted about this because they also dont know what they want the u. S. To do. A lot of disagreement in iraq. On the one hand, theres a lot of appreciation for the u. S. Assistance in driving out isil and theres a pretty wide consensus that iraqis do want continued u. S. Assistance to drive isis out of iraq and certainly once isis is driven out of these territories, as has been our focus, you know, i think u. S. Assistance will continue to be appreciated in tajjing the inveftable circumstancesy thats likely to come nate iraqi cities after the the formal liberation takes place but beyond that the problem in iraq is that there is an incredible iran iranian capture of the iraqi media and its less insidious than it sounds its just you know its just kind of you know people seeking to exercise soft influence over tv presenters, donations to tv channels, you know, theres a lot of Relationship Building thats happened and theres a lot of persuasion that takes place and it means that the kind of iranian narrative on what u. S. Intentions are in iraq is very pervasive and the United States does an absolutely terrible job of public diplomacy, of talking to the iraqi public about what its intentions are, what its goals are, what the game plan is, what its trying to achieve, right . And the fact that its not trying to steal iraqi oil or be a conquerer or stay in iraq forever or use this as an excuse for some other nefarious geopolitical reason and we have to be able to effectively counter the kind of iranian driven narratives that come out of the iraqi media because the iranians are engaged and were not and engaging with iraqi media is not that difficult. Thats something we could be doing that were not doing and as a result theres such a murkiness in the iraqi public consciousness about what level of u. S. Engagement they want and how comfortable they are with it and what kind of time scale they want to see that continued engagement and i think u. S. Policy could really benefit from a clear, sustained articulation of what our longterm strategy is in iraq and i think theres very clear things that we could be doing beyond the liberation of mosul and the next administration when it comes into office should really look at these key points. So number one we will not defeat isis when we Liberate Mosul so we need to have a strategy for continuing to partner with iraqi Security Forces and especially with iraqi intelligence to help to train them and build their capacity to conduct longterm penetration of extremist networks not just to show up in a sunni village and chuck everyone in prison, thats not defeating a counterinsurgency in the long term. You want to be building up real capacity to disrupt the financing networks, to disrupt the ied Assembly Networks and sourcing of those materials that are needed to assemble car bombs. They need to be effectively and systematically tracing the remaining networks that will go underground and that will keep isis alive in iraq to potentially for many years to come unless we offer the kind of support to the Iraqi Intelligence Services that will be needed to effectively defeat this group once its disappeared back into iraqi towns and cities. Thats something we can offer, those are skills that the iraqi intelligence sources know that they need, know that theyre lacking and that they respect from the american side, that they want those skills to be coming from the americans and thats something we can concretely offer and say that our goal is to help support the iraqi state to eradicate thats something we can do and thats not something thats on a president ial election timeline. As long as it takes, as long as the iraqis need that support. The other thing thats going to be needed is the United States will need to act as a buffer and it doesnt want to play this role, but between the iraqi kurds and baghdad. During the war against isis, Iraqi Kurdistan has extended its territory by about a third, has seized almost all of the territories that were previously disputed between the krg and baghdad, and theres a real risk that the iraqi shiite militias will, once mosul is liberated, will turn their guns against the