Announcer washington journal continues. Host we continue our focus on wisconsin as part of washington journals midterm battleground series. Our rest is university of wisconsin madison lytic vassar Political ScienceProfessor Larry burton. What is it about wisconsin that makes it a battleground state . And not just this cycle but at least since the year 2000 and maybe even before that. Guest i think that is what is stunning about wisconsin, it remains competitive even as the demographic in the state shifts. Like many states, there is in flux and out flux, populations in different parts of the state but there is sort of a magical balance that, as democrats, they gain democrats makings in one place, republicans gain elsewhere and they seem to offset perfectly. An example in madison, there is a large democratic vote thing to growing, booming part of the state, delivering a lot of votes to democrats but seems to be offset almost perfectly by the rise of republican votes in rural parts of the state and greater success republicans have had in growing suburbs around milwaukee area did it is sort of a tit for tat over the last 20 years and kept both parties competitive statewide in the elections. Host where is the battleground in the battleground state of wisconsin . Guest there are not a lot of places left where there are true battlegrounds with voters up for grabs and a lot of sway double voters that both parties are courting, especially with only a week until the election. Parties have turned their attention to get out the vote efforts. There are communities where maybe split ticket voting or swing voting is a little more likely. There are two or three i would say bellwether counties, some of them in the middle of the stay, north ofon in southunty, an hour central wisconsin. Midlevel population, mixture of small towns, Rural Communities, just the right hodgepodge of different identities and places that i think voters there are open to listening to listening to republican and democrat voters but a lot of counties are predicable in their voting and increasingly on one side or the other. That leaves fewer voters and that swing category. Host i will just read outnumbers from elections dating back to 2000, and i will let you fill in the details. The 2000 president ial election, democrats with 47. 8 of the vote, republicans 47. 6 . 2004, democrats 49. 7 percent, republicans 49 3 . 2016, democrats with 46. 5 of the vote, republicans 47. 2 . We are talking about really close races here. Guest thats right. You could add to the mix the governors election four years ago with tony devers by just a point. The last president ial election when joe biden was victorious by about a point. What stands out in that history are the two obama elections in 20082012 where he wind by large margins, he won by double digits 2008. It seems hard to imagine any candidate doing that in wisconsin now, both sides have really dug in in ways that prevent either party from running up the score far. Host how did they do that . What has been the strategy in wisconsin . Guest i think during the 2000, particularly during the governorship of scott walker, there was increasing partisanship on both sides. Republicans developed a very good get out the vote machine that relies on call centers, volunteers who go to republican offices and make phone calls to feller voters around the state. They claimed during some of the walker and ron johnson elections during the 2000s to have made millions of calls in individual election cycles. Democrats have relied more on facetoface got to vote like canvassing doortodoor and they have a team of volunteers, they had tremendous success raising money over the last couple years under the executive director of the democratic already, ben winkler, and they have used that money for advertising and mailing and other things in addition to their doortodoor campaign. It is different strategies for each party but both have a sophisticated operation at this point. Theres a lot of National Money coming in, especially for the senate race, attracting a lot of national attention. Both parties are going out to vote. Host what should viewers know about the demographics of wisconsin and whose votes in wisconsin . Guest it seems everyone votes. Wisconsin has one of the highest voter turnout rates in the country, typically in the top five, top three in the ranking of states in terms of voter turnout rates. The demographics are it is largely a white state. There are small, lack and hispanic relations each accounting for 6 or 7 of the population. Hispanic votes noticeably lower rates but they end up making a bless of the voting pool. There are two larger cities, milwaukee being the largest, that is majority minority city in the southeastward of the state. That is where a lot of the populationenr is in kenos racine, and suburbs around milwau madison state capital, it is a growing very democratic city and a youngy, so democrats tend to draw a lot of votes there, increasingly so, but moving north and west of those communities, the population becomes sparser and sparser and some of the counties in the northern and west part of the state are only 10 to 20 to help people in the entire county but there are lots of those places so republicans in particular racked up large statewide totals by stitching together a lot of small towns and villages in northern and western wisconsin. It is a mix of things, a purple statement there are not a lot of purple people or places, it is a precarious balance of different communities that together lead to an overall competitive state. Host if you want to talk wisconsin voting history, political patterns in wisconsin, that would be a great time to call. It is 202 7488000 free democrats, 202 7488001 for republicans, independent, 202 7488002. Larry byrnes Political Science professor at the university of wisconsin madison and it is Elections Research center he runs there, taking your calls this morning. We start in class fill wisconsin an independent independent, donald, you are on with the professor. Caller hello . Host go ahead. Caller im 85 years old and i have been in business for most of my life, im in Residential Rental property right now and i need that to supplement Social Security but im not worried about Social Security for myself. I think what ron is trying to do, ron johnson looking at him, he is trying to protect it for future generations here and i do not think he will take anything with him at the moment, that is the way i understand it. I understand Social Security [indiscernible] i think it will be insolvent by that time. Im worried about future people but not myself. Im leaning toward ron johnson at this point. Host professor burden, the Social Security is an issue in wisconsin and in past elections. Guest it is a bigger issue in this election than previous ones because ron johnsons statements on Social Security are being used by Mandela Barnes against him. Johnson got into politics because of his concern about fiscal issues back in 2010 as the chief party wave, he dumped jumped into electoral politics, someone that has never been on the scene in Republican Party or stay wide politics, concerned about the expense of obamacare, the size of the deficit and debt, and entitlements like Social Security any set over the years, including this year, he believes it ought to be a discretionary program, part of the annual budget process rather than something guaranteed or automatic. It is a little less clear what that means for current beneficiaries versus future ones which is johns question but i think were Mandela Barnes, it does not much matter really what the details are, he is focusing on the fact johnson is willing to put security on the chopping block or consider a different model. In midterm election, older voters turn out at high rates than younger voters, even in wisconsin where overall turnout is high. It skews toward older voters Social Security is particularly relevant for those of retirement age or will be reaching it soon. I think barnes in particular will keep it up in these remaining days. Host in orlando, line for democrats, good morning. Caller good morning. Hello . Host go ahead, orlando. What is your question or, for the professor. Professor . Caller is it true that a lot of republicans are election deniers and some running for office now are also election deniers and a lot of republicans were in the insurrection and it came close to a coup area why should i vote for any republicans who still believe election was illegal . Why should i vote for them if they also support supported this coup that happened at the capitol . Why should we vote for these people now . Host orlando in d. C. Professor burden, january 6, 2021 as an issue in november 2022. Guest it is an issue in the Wisconsin Senate race because of ron johnsons connection to the january 6 insurrection. As i think was mentioned during this cob our segment earlier, johnson was asked to deliver two slates affect pay collectors from wisconsin and michigan to Vice President pence, he did not do that but it did become a subject of one of the january 6 committee hearings. It is part of barnes criticism of johnson. Johnson also said he does not believe the january 6 events were true insurrection because he did not view them as violent. He said he was not concerned that day in the capitol, didnt really know was happening outside but that he would have been concerned had they been black lives matter protesters rather than insurrectionists or elections cap this skeptics or deniers be a that rhetoric has been used as well against him. Republicans running statewide in wisconsin are not of the same election dinar quality saying the republicans in arizona or some other states are. Both michaels and johnson have expressed concern about 2020, they both said no biden is the victor, but they do not believe election procedures were followed property. They both want changes made to the state Elections Commission and other aspects of state election law. So it is sort of an ambiguous area between accepting the results of 20 20 and really challenging them. I dont think we know exactly what they will do, particularly michaels if he is elected. Host back to the badger states in plainfield, wisconsin. This is deborah, thank you for waiting. Caller hi. I have a question, what do think about the the vote toward the gop . Guest i was a white evangelicals have been a very durable part of the Republican Coalition nationally and in wisconsin. Its a good question as to how that plays out this year in wisconsin in particular because of the Dobbs Decision from the Supreme Court in early summer that overturned roe v. Wade. That has come up in this years campaign. Mandela barnes in particular has been criticizing johnson because he said he believes dobbs was rightly decided and he would not necessarily stand by roe v. Wade. Wisconsin has a lawn the books from 1849, the second year they existed, that essentially bans all abortion in the state and once dobbs was decided, the abortion providers in the state stopped providing services. So that has made abortion an issue much more relevant here maybe than other states where the practice is still allowed or the law is not quite as stringent. A come up it has come up and the governors and senate race. Evangelicals i wonder whether they are motivated because they are excited by that decision, believe it was decided rightly, and now having accomplished the 50your mission since roe are motivated to take parts. It might be democrats feeling more than threatened by the Supreme Court and might want to take action to undo that. Host 20 minutes left with very burden, a Political Science professor at the university of wisconsin madison. Director of the Elections Research center. Tell us more about the election Research Center, what you do there. Guest we are a nonpartisan institute at the University Wisconsin madison devoted to us studying elections in the u. S. And other countries and improving them. It is serving as a hub for all of the activity on campus that we researchers, students, and others. We put on acer owes him open to the public both in person and virtually if you are not located in madison that happens one month after election day and information can be found about that on our website. Host also on twitter at elections at center. For viewers that want to be savvy consumers on Election Night of the information coming in about wisconsin races, how should they be reading results and maps . Where are the results going to come in first . When will you get a good sense of which way wisconsin is going in six days . Guest there are a few things to watch on Election Night. One thing for viewers to know is there is not a state agency that collect election resulted on Election Night. Without a secretary of state or statewide office, there is not one place that is a government source the viewers can go to find all of the election returns. So they tend to be collected by media outlets, places like the milwaukee journal sentinel, Wisconsin Public radio, other state sources. I think they are really useful and do updates throughout the night. Polls will close at 8 00 p. M. , assuming there are no problems with the polls. That is when the close statewide by about 10 00 central time, we will have a good sense for how the candidates are doing. One exception is milwaukee. The states largest city, the largest number ballots cast there. In milwaukee, all of the absentee ballots are counted centrally at one location. That does not happen until after polls close at 8 00 p. M. So milwaukee totals 10 to come in late, absentee ballots often added to the statewide totals after midnight. That was true in 2020 and also true in 2018. That is a city that bows predominately democratic, at least 70 of votes will be for democratic candidates. Viewers should not be surprised if lane the evening republican candidates appear to be doing better than expected and once milwaukee as those ballots to the total is ships things back to where things will finally end up. Places to watch i think one thing to watch is voter turnout. The marquette lawful, the Gold Standard survey in the state suggests republicans have the upper hand when turnout is lower. Barnes may be trailing by five to six points in the lower turnout scenario but turnout is higher approaching the total number of registered voters then it is probably a tossup. Democrats are counting on a late start of turnout. There is sameday Voter Registration in wisconsin so voters unregistered can show up on the polls on election day, register and vote angered wines. Both parties have a use of that, republicans more likely to vote at the polls in recent years, democrats are also looking for a surge. I think turnout is one of the factors to be watching. Host a couple badger state residents waiting to chat with you. Still in medicine fill in medicine. Good morning. Caller good morning. I heard last night that theyre going to have you going to have to show proof of id. This is clearly targeting and allows targeting. My concern is within a week of the election, when you never had to have show proof of id now suddenly you do. Is there anyway we can get some injunction . Guest this has been a controversial issue in wisconsin. There is a fairly strict voter id requirement in the state, one of the stricter around the country, does require a voter to show Something Like a state drivers license or passport or military id. It was passed believe it or not way back in 2011 signed into law by scott walker what was subject to lawsuits and controversy and did not go into effect for the first time really until the 2016 president ial election, but there are number of voters still unsure about the law, may be unaware of it. I see that just watching some of my students for the first time. It is a process of educating and reeducating the public in each election cycle. A large number of wisconsin voters carry the proper kind of id with them already but there are these pockets in the population, young people, people of color, people of big cities, who are less likely to have a drivers license or passport. It is a political issue and also a logistical matter for parties and voters to make sure voters have what they need to get a ballot. Host apple 10, wisconsin, john, good morning. Caller good morning. Host what is your question or comment for the professor . Caller when michaels running for governor, but was a comment made by him that if he gets elected he would change our election status where he would fire the whole board that runs that and set up an election board of his own . Wouldnt that just what is the sense of voting of Something Like that happened . Our freedoms are over. Guest yeah, it is sort of striking in wisconsin, the election system itself is a perennial system in elections and more so this year. The Elections Commission is only about five years old. As scott bauer mentions, created by republicans in 2015. It was preceded by a Different Agency called the Government Accountability board only created in the early 2000. The state has undergone turn in what our statewide agency looks like. To michaels initially when he got into the race said he wanted to make changes to the Elections Commission, certainly the weight operated and structure, but i think reflecting additional pressure from President Trump and others in his party, he decided at some point he wanted to scrap the Election Commission altogether. He said has not said what the replacing agency would look like. We dont know whether the secretary of state would be brought into that process the way they are in some any other states, whether a bipartisan structure, a partisan structure, i think he mentioned having local election clerks involved in some way, so i think what voters now is he is unhappy with the Election Commission and wants to replace it but it is unclear what he would do instead. Host with about 50 minutes left in the program, we go to james in connecticut, republican. Good morning. Caller good morning. Professor, i would like to ask you a question related to the last election specifically for this election as well about dark when he. A lot of people do not know this because it was underreported but the owner of facebook, mark zuckerberg, and his wife, secretly set up thatll llcs to quote out the vote and gave 400 to 430 million to Democratic Party organizations that were run by former obama election people called Community Get out to vote in the key states. At the same time, i think we all agree digital townsquare of sharing information today for most people is basically facebook, google, twitter, and here we had him blocking anyone from sharing information about things like the hunter biden laptop. My curiosity is to ask you, in your own research, what actually happened with all of that money . When republicans say election was rigged, what we mean is we cannot share information about Hunter Bidens laptop and the biden relationship with china and when you look at the key for states that won the election, it was only 46,000 votes. 27,000 people had switched in key states, donald trump would be president today. When we mean a rigged election, we mean we cannot use free speech because facebook was blocking us while he was secretly putting 420 Million Dollars into Democratic Community action groups on the ground, which might actually be what i call bribery. Because i know what walking money is. I have been in politics for years. In the old days, you would walk in and give the minister 50,000 in a briefcase and say i dont care about receipts, i just want as many votes as your congregation is possible. I would like to hear your information on what you researched about this. Host professor. Guest dark money is a big role as does super pac money which is not dark money, it is public really reported just like camp in and impact contributions are regularly but those two tend to get blended together. Mark zuckerberg and his wife have been involved in the public and the election in some ways. Most viewers will know about the funding zuckerbergs nonprofit provided or Election Administration in 2020. That was several hundred Million Dollars. I do not know if that is what the caller is referring to but those were grants given to election officials, including wisconsin, hundreds of communities in wisconsin receive funding to help all workers higher salaries or to buy protective equipment to protect against the covid virus being spread at polling places and that kind of thing area apparently it is not secret because the caller knows about the funding but i do not know about the details. He is right that joe biden won by a fair margin in the National Popular vote, but it was closer in a lot of key plane states that would have taken a lot to change the outcome but that was also true in 2016 when donald trump lost the popular vote but one the Electoral College with narrow wins in wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania. There are lots of groups whether wealthy individuals like george soros, others getting involved in politics, both of them spent money into campaigns in wisconsin this year, or in other ways. I know that on facebook the top 10 most shared topics tend to skew conservative and toward supporters of trump and his allies. I do not think the platform is preventing that kind of activity. I understand the viewers concern about individuals affecting what happens to the public sphere. Host brooklyn, allen, line for democrats, good morning. Caller good morning. Going back to talk about ron johnson and Social Security proposals, one of the reasons we have a longterm Budget Priority given to Social Security benefits is that there was a reciprocal burden on average taxpayers of having having automatically withdrawn but not only regularly over years but at a regressive rate because effectively they were paying a higher share of their income toward fica, wealthy people, because of their fica taxable income was cap. So somebody made 1 million per year was paying a small percentage effective fica rate. The idea we will take money that has been raised for decades in this regressive fashion and put it into the ordinary annual discretionary budget process makes for a giant regressive tax subsidy for the entire federal budget. And it is not being discussed adequately that way. The idea of turning this into that kind of ordinary annual approval, when they already have the benefit of these reserves that will raise or aggressively is an outrage. It should be discussed that way. Host professor, any thoughts . Guest the caller makes a good point, Social Security is funded any different way, as is medicare from other items of the federal budget because it has this dedicated source of funds from the payroll tax, the fica box, on the people at paychecks. I think johnson and barnes understand that but just have different views about what they would do in the senate, johnson has been a fiscal hawk since he arrived in 2011 and has gone after entitlement programs rate i think he has been frustrated with his time in washington and frustrated aching big changes because they were defenders of the existence existing system. Johnson said when he first ran in 2010 that he would only serve to to two terms. Those terms are coming to an end but he changed his mind this year because of his concerns about spending on entitlement programs in particular from the biden administration. Barnes, for his part would be more sympathetic to the callers view and would probably want to lift that cap on Social Security taxes on the fica tax so that it is not fully progressive, less progressive, so you would pay that on your full income rather than on the first 150,000 or whatever the amount is today. That is likely to continue to be an issue in the final days of the campaign i guess because older voters tend to be more involved because it is more salient for them but johnsons comments on Social Security let it become an issue in a way it might not have been otherwise. Host staying on the senate for a second, i believe at this point, it is only six states in the country that has a split senate delegation, a senator one senator from one party and one senator from another party. I wonder what you think that says about the badger state. Guest it says a lot. Wisconsin is one of the few states with a split delegation. It might be the state were the two senators have the most different voting records. Tammy baldwin is an unapologetic progressive, a liberal voting record, she supported the biden administration. Ron johnson clearly a conservative, closely tied to trump and the trump administration. So these are pretty different kind of politicians who represent the same voters, interesting to watch alden on the campaign trail. She has been campaigning in madison, milwaukee, and other places with surrogates that have come in free verse and barnes. She is essentially campaigning get campaigning against her colleague, her fellow senator from wisconsin. It seems hard for a lot of voters to understand how a state could produce two types of candidates, two types of elected officials from the same constituency. I think part of it has to do with the cycle of senate elections. Its never the case the two of them are up in the same cycle. Ron johnson has benefited in both earlier elections from a republican wave that helped assist him in his elections over 2010 and 2016. This year, there is another boost to his party, baldwin for her part ran in 2018 was a good year for her party in 2012, again great year for the democrats. A little luck of the cycle with these candidates having to be up and i do not see a change to that anytime soon. Host how much do baldwin and johnson or have they tried to appeal to moderates . To the middle . Or is it a matter of pushing out your base when it comes to their victories in the same state . Guest they were probably both appealing to moderate voters but i think baldwin made more of a concerted effort there. In 2018 when she reelection, tony evers was at the top of the ticket and one i one percentage point. Her race was probably of next most interest and she won reelection by 11 Percentage Points. That is a big margin in state like ours where elections tend to be decided closely and she did it by making inroads in suburban and Rural Communities where democrats have not done well. It has been a dedicated strategy of hers in office should she first ran for senate to try to find areas of Common Ground with Rural Communities, whether on issues of health care, sponsoring bills in the senate to encourage by american policies by government agencies, something donald trump push for, so i think her image of a progressive from medicine has softened by her outreach on those issues. It has not been ron johnsons approach, though he certainly made a pitch for modern voters. I think he has such a strong backing from the Republican Party he is really the most popular central figure in the gop in wisconsin today. And he has a successful voter turnout machine. He runs campaigns, even when he has been the underdog, even when the National Party pulled out in the fat in the final days of the campaign answer not supported him, he has pulled it off in two consecutive elections and i think he has done that by appealing to his supporters more so than reaching out to the middle. Host st. Louis, missouri, a line for republicans, tim. Good morning. Caller good morning. Earlier mr. Burda noted that wisconsin voting rules suppressed voting to some degree and said it had any effect on people of color. He made it sound like saying based on the pigmentation in your skin, it would have an impact on your ability to get paid and identification. To me that sounds racist. I wonder how mr. Burton would defend that statement. Guest thats not quite what i said. The evidence is voters of color were less likely to have the kinds of id permitted by the states voter id laws that are white voters, that was true and the lows past and came up in litigation as this was under dispute in both federal court and state court for a number of years before it finally went into effect. That is still the case that black and hispanic voters are less likely to have a drivers license or veterans id or military id required to vote to get a ballot, whether by absentee or inperson. And those voters tend to have lower incomes. It has been i would say more of a challenge for nonwhite voters and for white voters. And because there is a partisan difference in how white and nonwhite voters vote, that meant a challenge for the democrats, trying to make sure their supporters know about the law, are educated about it, they dont have id, that they take action early enough for election day to get the id so when they arrive during the early Voting Period or on election day they can receive a ballot. It is an ongoing effort. To make sure electorate is educated and making sure they can get the ideas to cast ballots. Host back to the badger stay in wisconsin, dells. This is anita, good morning. Caller good morning. I am a product of a family, norwegian, outside of the famous wisconsin dell. We are not kids anymore. But we follow politics. We have from the time the captive times was at our table. It was a time to discuss politics of the day and it concerns me today that there is so much money in politics and you either have to be rich or you have to kiss up to somebody who is rich. I do not think that is good for our democracy and i am wondering , years ago, people stayed in their own locale but today, they are all over the United States and the world. Would it be better to have a system that is uniform, throughout the United States, in voting, voting is a treasure to keep our democracy. Couldnt that be better then what we do now . Host professor burden. Guest the caller raises a few different issues. The amount of money being spent on campaigns this year in wisconsin is undeniable. The governors race at one point in the fall was the most expensive in the country. There has been about 55 million spent at that point. We are well above that now. The senate race is not at this very top, not up there with george and some of the other states, but it is in the top five i think for spending rate a lot of that money majority of the money is not from the candidates, not from barnes and janssen but from outside organizations whether they are super pac or 501 c dark when he groups, just millions of dollars. I think to the callers point about her frustration, voting only happens in your jurisdiction. You can vote for the candidates on the ballot where you live but money flows across state lines and much of the money going into the hot senate races this year including wisconsin is coming from out of state, it is interested people who are in other places who want to influence what is happening here. I would not say the outcomes of elections are decided by money but the ads have a surprisingly small effect. Political Science Research would say it is in a couple Percentage Points but in a close, competitive state like ours, that is enough to to the balance. Analysts welcome, they look back at previous elections and can point to an ad or two that seem to be effective in moving the needle just enough, at least for some groups in the population, to to the outcome. Unfortunately i do not think we will see changes in Campaign Finance laws in the state where the federal level. There was a bill in congress, the democrats were pushing, that would change Campaign Finance laws, provide public funding for congressional candidates. That has gone nowhere, particularly in the senate. This is the system we have. Unfortunately it is voters in the end who make the decisions so if you are able to see through the ads or ignore them him in the end it will be the days on Election Night and after who decide to wins. Host she mentioned the famous wisconsin dells. What are they famous for . Caller initially guest initially they were famous for the Wisconsin River that runs through the area and there were rocky bluffs who people 10 years ago would tour by boat and piping and they are still a beautiful place to visit but now it is also the Worlds Largest waterpark. There are water parks and casinos and lots of other tourist activities that have built up around that area so it is a destination for a lot of people in wisconsin and beyond. Host less than a minute left and i wanted to ask, professor, what the election Research Center will be doing on Election Night. What is your plan for election day and election evening . Guest i have been working in my colleagues have been working over the last couple weeks to assist the voting process on campus. Our campus has three early voting locations and students who are just turning 18 are learning about the voting process, getting the ideas ids they need to vote, doing a number of debate watches and Voter Education efforts on Election Night, at least my attention will ship to what is happening statewide and nationally. I will probably sit in front of the screen like this, keeping up with all of the results, talking to journalists and hoping it is an early night with clear results without some without s we think could emerge after election day. Wisconsin does have a history of recounts. We did a recount of the two largest counties after the latest president ial election and a recount of the entire state after 2016. Maybe a late Election Night is not enough. Host if you want to follow professor burton on Election Night. Thank you