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We have some treats for everyone and cake as well. Thank you very much. [applause] thank you very much. And now on booktv, Jeffrey Sachs director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University puts forward a Sustainable Development plan to address global poverty, political corruption and environmental decay. [inaudible conversations] good afternoon everybody. And to those of you who have struggled here on a freezing day, congratulations. To those smart ones who are watching on line well done. And Jeffrey Sachs is wellknown to us a very good friend of the multilateral system and of the goals that we all share for development. I want to read you what bill gates said about jeff. Sachs could have had a good life doing nothing more than teaching two classes a semester and pumping out armchair advice in academic journals great but that is not his style. He rolls up his sleeves. He puts his theories into action. He drives himself as hard as anyone i know. Just doesnt always make friends. His goal is clearly not to make friends. Some of you will know of the controversy around the free insecticide treated bed nets. Some of you will have followed the exciting exchanges on line about millennium villages. Jeff doesnt pull his punches and discussion and i hope that today we will continue that fine tradition. So today we are here to talk about his new book the age of Sustainable Development. Jared diamond said if you want to understand the modern world and if you have room on your shelf for only one book this is your book. So before handing it over let me single out two reasons why i think the arguments, the approach of the book matter to us at the world bank group. So first, i quote from chapter 4 which is headed by some countries developed while others stayed poor. There are three points here. First, Economic Growth was a diffusion process starting in one small part of the world, britain and gradually diffusing and evolving all over the planet. Second the patents of diffusion are discernible. They are not just a mystery. Third, many different kinds of factors have been at play during the past 250 years and the relative importance of these factors continues to change especially as technologies evolve. And the second reason i think this matters is because of jeffs insistence throughout the book on improved country specific diagnostic using diagnostic checklist. So for those of you here working on jobs diagnostics his arguments and approach i think are really helpful to us. So jeff is going to present for 30 or 40 minutes and if all goes according to plan we will have room for 30 minutes of questions and answers. Thank you very much. Well when this was scheduled who would have thought there was going to be a snow day but i am grateful for the chance to be with you today and thank you for indeed coming today with all of the difficulties of the last couple of days. I asked my climatologist expert whether this was Climate Change human induced Climate Change that we are seeing. As a good sign to see answered nobody knows. But let me come over here, there is at least a theory that is gaining a lot of debate that what we are observing is a weakening of the jet stream because of a shrinking gradients of temperature between the midlatitudes in the high latitudes and that is leading to more meandering of the polar front through the socalled rouse the ways by which the jet stream meanders from west to east around the planet. When the jet stream dips south of washington d. C. You have this remarkable occurrence as you had in the last two days. I think i will show you a map later on that will also be relevant for this. Whether it is human induced Climate Change are not as cold and rainy and icy and snowy outside and good to be inside together with you. What we do know, whatever is happening in our small part of the world at a global scale there is without doubt a massive human induced climate disruption and massive human induced environmental destruction more generally. Its making all of our work in all of our responsibilities much more complicated. I think it is right to say 30 or 40 years ago the goal was Economic Growth and then it was realized increasingly well thats not good enough because we have to make sure its growth that really makes a difference and clues of late. In a sense we are adding a third very complex additional feature to the challenge of development and that is that it has to be growth of course that is environmentally sustainable. And that is not simply a small matter that is one of the most consequential and complex challenges that the world has ever faced because never before has the world as a whole that means the 193 Member States of the United Nations and all of the International Institutions such as the world bank and the imf and other global institutions have to make a conscious decision to change course on how economies are managed. We are not good at that. This has been a very tumultuous difficult unfinished process but this year is one of the most important years in our generation for getting this right. And that really is the backdrop to the book and the backdrop to my talk. The starting point is our new age as the geologist would call it and the geologist have increasingly sat on a new name for this new ad hoc the enterprise and at andrew christine. This is a term that is them popularized by one of the three Nobel Laureates atmospheric chemists who lucky for humanity happen to discover the mechanisms by which chlorofluorocarbons were degrading and depleting the stratospheric ozone. Crewdson did a Great Service for humanity with his colleagues. He is doing another Great Service by making it more clear for us that not only was it ozone depletion that more generally we have entered a new period on the planet. The weight geologists count they went from the ice age period to anthropocene to say the earth transferred to the holocene which is the period roughly from 12,000 years ago until now that is the whole age of human civilization the retreat of the ice in the beginning of agriculture, the beginning of human settlements, the rise of human civilization to our now urban global scale society and economy. And what crewdson is saying is by all objective standards of the geophysical sciences, we have actually transferred to yet a new era where humanity the answer post is having such a strong impact on fundamental Earth Systems whether its the climate the carbon cycle, the nitrogen cycle, the water cycle that now basic Earth Systems are under human control or human driving. We are not really controlling things in a conscious way. We are determining outcomes so far without much thought designed Institutional Innovation and that is a huge danger. It is that realization that we need now to combine the economic objectives the social objectives especially in view of the widening inequalities in so many societies in the world with the environmental objectives that make this new anthropocene different and really compel us to a new concept, the concept of Sustainable Development as a developing system. Why this anthropocene . Why did we arrive here as i say on the slide, its all about scale. Its about the size of the human venture the population and resource use on average per person in the world. Both have increased to an extent that was simply unimaginable two centuries ago just at the ebook the industrial revolution. So i think that this iconic invention is probably the most consequential invention of modern history. It is of course the steam engine. It is the invention that unleashed the modern world more than any other single step because it made it possible for the first time in civilization to Harness Energy beyond what was captured by our food and our own muscles or our animal traction or wind in sails or wind and water to drive males. Other than that we couldnt move forward. Metallurgy, machinery, heavy motive Power Transport was all limited to what the animals essentially could do or what wind to wind power could do for a sale and then came watts in the 1770s and unleash the modern world. And that was an enormous way to the wonderful breakthrough. It was the breakthrough to longevity. It was the change from 35 years Life Expectancy to today 70 year Life Expectancy. It was the monumental improvements of Living Standards in almost all parts of the world. It is important to appreciate of course that before 1800 90 plus percent of humanity were peasant farmers living off subsistence. Simply by knowledge of population and evidence of yield of crops around the world one can make an estimate like this. There was little else and that modern world and modern economy grew up dramatically with the industrial revolution. The output per person has the same dynamic and the population also has the same dynamic. These are all knew for humanity. This is something new. The whole area is knew 200 years old. All of us who have studied economic models do not use the right titles because our models, whether it is the solar growth model or and Indigenous Growth or whatever model does not start in 1800 and explain what is different before and after and generally it does not include interesting things like energy which was the breakthrough or the technological changes that made this possible. It would be it would be good for us in the future to re base economics not in pure formalism but actually in the grounding of the physical world and the engineered world more specifically so that we can understand why the curve turns out so dramatically and is something that our growth theory does not really tell us much about. Well, all curves look like this now the reconstructed concentration of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere measured as parts per million of co2 going back 2000 years. Of 2000 years. Of course, this has also been reconstructed back millions of years. Even if you even if you do it from 800,000 before the present up until now the curve is just about flat with little oscillations that are times times to oral cycles but suddenly in 1800 the arrow starts churning due do north because it was the unleashing of fossil fuels that made the modern world. When fossil fuels are combusted they produce Carbon Dioxide, and we dioxide, and we have known now for about 150 years that Carbon Dioxide warms the planet. The fact it has not reached the wall street editorial journal page yet, but for the rest of humanity it is no, either experientially or because people went to school again, something that seems to have eluded the wall street journal editorial board. This is an extraordinarily important basic. Which is we have reached a global scale of human business of human activity on the planet where we are consequential indeed the the drivers of fundamental environmental change able to raise the co2 concentrations in the atmosphere by 30 percent. And because of the co2 dissolving in the ocean water creating carbonic acid and acidifying the oceans having a drop of ph in the ocean is now also about 30 percent. So humanity is changing fundamentally. Air chemistry, ocean chemistry, terrestrial chemistry terrestrial vegetative cover species biogeography, you name it. We are driving these fundamental processes. Of course, technology did not stop. It is gone through ways that i think a fairly and rightly called dan drawdy waves after the great russian economic thinker of the early 20th century the noted that there are long technological waves, steam rail, chemistry, electrification, automotive chemistry, electrification automotive breakthrough, aviation, and now our age of information technology. Absolutely fundamental and revolutionary as any of those that came before with the exception, i would say of the steam engine, which was the most fundamental or maybe write to say steam, electrification, and digital revolution are on par in terms of the death of impact of their effects on global society. And in our time the curve also looks the same way, this dramatic digital revolution exemplified by moores law gives us the power and speed of transformation that is also astounding. It was in 1959 that jack helvey 1st put one transistor on a silicon crystal and started what became then called an integrated circuit. And in 1961 robert noyce but to transistors on the crystal. And by 1965 there were about 30 to transistors on the crystal, and gordon moore of intel a Young Company then look back and said we have a doubling rate of everyone year, and this could probably go forward perhaps 18 months or 24 months for the next ten years and there was born moores law of the increasing power of creating integrated circuitry and what became microprocessors soon thereafter. Last year and last year intel put 5 billion transistors on its microprocessor xeon five microprocessor, and so we have had roughly a billion fold rise of the ability to process, store, and transmit data. And that is since the early 1960s. That is our revolution. Of course, what it what it means is, the incredible unprecedented diffusion of technologies and this is one of those technologies that diffuses everywhere mobile phones. Who doesnt love the mobile phone . I certainly love mine because it is one of the most Versatile Technologies imaginable for the things that it can do and benefit us. Apparently 7 billion other people are pretty happy with theirs as well and for all of us working in extremely poor places, we have watched just in the last five years the mobile revolution sweeping to the most remote villages of the world, and we are now seeing broadband come into the most remote places in the world, and this is as transformative for our line of work which is development, as for any other sector of the economy or any other sphere of science for that matter as well leading to a rate of change that is absolutely unprecedented for those of us who have had the good fortune to work a bit in china we have seen something even in a generation that was unimaginable i did not believe it when i was 1st given the forecast of what could happen, but this is change in china which china, which many of you know as lying just north of hong kong in 1980 when theyre were 23000 People Living in this bucolic rural community, and this is shenzhen today. It exemplifies the pace of development. It is now 25 Million People dwarfing the new york metropolitan area. And that change occurred in one generation. It is why it really is true that poverty can be ended by 2030, a goal which i am thrilled the world bank has taken on formally. It is the right call. It is achievable, but it will not happen by itself. It has to be strategized and pursued vigorously but it is within reach, and that has been the dream of this institution rightly and should continue to be the dream, and the institution can help lead that by the year 2030 it is within reach and and we know that the poverty rates are coming down sharp. The world bank, the keeper of the numbers, in 1990 the developing countries is a parked car had a had a poverty rate of 23 percent. By 2010 2009 around 21 percent, already cutting my more than half the rate of extreme poverty the dollar 25 and a day standard of the world bank. In 2011 it went down to 17 percent. Now we are in 2015. I 2015. I wish that the bank could be uptodate with its data, so i we will make a plea. We wait much too long for these data because we should not be four years behind. Google knows the answer every day and we should try to find out faster, faster but my guess is that when we do get the official count it will be Something Like 14 for 2015 or 15 . Poverty is coming. Poverty is coming down dramatically, and that is because of the fundamental drive of technology. But that is the end of the good news for a moment because i want i want to talk about Sustainable Development, why this is not enough. It it is not enough for the reasons i already alluded to there are basically three major problems that remain, and they are core to the purposes of this institution and core to the work of development in the new era ahead. First, there is growing income inequality. In the in the United States it has reached unprecedented dimensions, probably an alltime high income and wealth command i would say power inequality as well. This country is in the hands of the rich. It is politically in the hands of the rich. Our policies our policies do not lean against inequality they amplify it. We have reached an unprecedented state of inequality, but we are not alone and that. Many other countries are facing similar phenomenon. Second, there are poverty traps that are not yet overcome and will require a concerted directed invested effort to overcome them. Do we have the will for that . Can we get organized to do that . Many of those places have very high fertility rates as well, especially in Subsaharan Africa where the fertility rates remain above five. On average atf are of 5. 2 command we cannot end extreme poverty with such high fertility rates and rapid population growths because population will run ahead and because those poor children and poor large families are not going to make it with the kind of health and education and nutrition that they need. 3rd is this massive and growing Environmental Crisis so exemplifying in the rising inequality of the dramatic scale social unrest around the world very real. My own city is in the middle row to the right, but all over the world that people are unemployed, inequalities arising. There is a considerable dissatisfaction with the distribution of income and wealth employment. Persistence of very high fertility rates which, by which, by the way save for the median fertility and africa the population is on track from having gone from 179 million in Subsaharan Africa, all of Subsaharan Africa 179 million in 19,521,000,000,000 people today to 4 billion people in 2100 on the median fertility trajectory. Now,. Now, what is the most important thing to do for this without question . Help girls stay in school. Help girls get a secondary education. This this should be a complete nobrainer for the 21st century. But we are not on track to do it and the countries in question do not have the budget to do it and we are not getting the Development Assistance to make it real. And so that is the kind of challenge that is unmet. And then are the environmental crises the socalled planetary boundaries the idea of planetary boundaries, which i discussed at length in this new book, is the idea propounded by the worlds leading ecologists that we opposed to physical systems to thresholds of grave danger. We know that for climate for example the bank put out a wonderful report last year on the 4 see what would happen if the world actually had a 4 degrees celsius rise in mean temperature. It will be catastrophic all over the world. Food supplies, storms, disease patterns pests, pathogens, rising sea levels and yet that is actually the baseline trajectory for the 21st century at this stage. And and what the planetary boundaries say is it is not only climate. If you go around the circle it is ocean acidification, stratospheric stratospheric ozone deterioration phosphorus from the 20,000,000 pounds or so of fertilizer applied each year to try to grow enough food for the planet freshwater depletion, major droughts all over the world right now including in some of the conflict hotspots of the world not coincidentally landuse change, deforestation, biodiversity loss, massive aerosol loadings massive chemical the pollutant pollutants. These are the planetary boundaries that have been identified and the idea is simple. Scale is pushing the human forcing us to meet to the extent against a a finite planet that is reaching absolutely dangerous thresholds. We we cannot simply go on growing the way that we are growing. So so the idea of Sustainable Development is to overcome what will be growing disasters like our super storms air and cities that we choke on in the major cities of asia pervasive drought. For example, the mega drought of brazil just now. Some some of you may have seen the really frightening but in a way unpredictable predictable story in the New York Times that said in sao paulo now where there is a massive drought that was basically unattended by policymakers for a year as it was unfolding, there is now an dany fever epidemic because water storage tanks were put around the city. Low and behold mosquitoes are breeding in them and the disease is soaring. This is a general proposition. You push them out of their normal state and you wont get just one thing going on. You will get many. It is predictable but the unpredictable we will occur. And that is what is happening in sao paulo. Paulo. And you have drought, forest fires in sumatra, mega floods, one in a thousand year floods in bosnia, bosnia, serbia, the baltic the baltic region last summer. Huge storms in japan. Similarly because of the very heavy loading of water in this warming climate. You get more you get more snowfall or you get more rainfall in the web places. Then the dry places become dryer, whether sao paulo or california now which has a mega drought. My colleagues at the Earth Institute published last week study a study showing that these mega droughts are likely to intensify in the 21st century in the us southwest and in the mid plains states because the climate models say that those will be dry zones. And this is where the droughts are today around the world, world can actually a map from october. I dont like this, frankly. You have got the mideast in drought and in conflict. Those are related as well. A couple of days ago another group of my colleagues published another paper in the proceedings of the National Academy of sciences showing that the syrian conflict which broke out in 2,011 was preceded by five years of unprecedented drought and huge displacement of population. I was with one of the leading humanitarian organizations yesterday in new york and they were saying business is booming. More refugees, more displaced people more horrendous a cases of suffering than ever before and we were both commiserating, there is no way our humanitarian system can keep up with this. It is impossible. If we do not head off a a growing number of crises and get ahead of these environmental disasters, we we will find them running out of control. Now, this is the map i promised to show you. This is the summary for 2014 of the climate anomalies. It was warm everywhere in the world except for one little place which was us. So. [laughter] other than that, or if you happen to live out if you happen to be i guess, a card in the north atlantic you felt warm everywhere except i guess angola namibia and the us northeast. This namibia, and the us northeast. This is this meandering polar front which set over the winter cutting deep to the deep south of the us and is doing it again this year. Whether that is a longterm new normal or whether it is just an odd anomaly is obviously too early to say. What are we going to do about all of this . Well, i do believe that Sustainable Development is the calling card of our time because it is the philosophy that says we need a holistic approach that puts economic, social, and environmental objectives in a holistic framework on par not just chasing gnp, not just chasing the bottom line of income, but an economic social, and environmental framework that holistically combines these societal objectives. As as an analytical framework, it is the study of complex nonlinear interacting, natural and human systems. Systems. So Sustainable Development is both an analytical approach as well as a moral approach in my view both a positive and a normative framework for our time. What is important and i think, maybe very lucky for us is that the 193 Member States of the United Nations decided in 2012 that we must put Sustainable Development as the court organizing principle for Global Development for the coming generation. And so at the and so at the United Nations september 25 to 27 the world will adopt Sustainable Development goals. I am putting a lot of hope in this because in general the world is not agree on very much of anything but when it does agree on some things at least they can get noticed. The fact of the world is going to agree most likely pending the outcome of the ongoing negotiations at the un on knew Sustainable Development goals, i believe that this can be a court organizing principle for the coming generation. In fact as you know well there will be three major summits, one after another in 2015. In september adopting the Sustainable Development goals in december agreeing, we hope, for the 1st time since signing the Un Framework Convention on Climate Change on an actual way to implement the treaty and in advance of those two summits a financing for Sustainable Development summit in midjuly. So the diplomatic season is packed packed for a lot of reasons. It all came together this year. We will we will not have another chance like this in a long time. We will have the possibility to change course globally. And what is amazing for me is that the concept of how to change course good concepts are on the table because there is nothing in this distracted world to say that we even fit on the right concepts, but we are actually right there within grasp with the chance to set the goals to set a knew direction on the world Energy System, and to organize a knew framework for financing Sustainable Development. So the sbgs this is the bread and butter business of the world bank, of course. Number one sbg is end poverty and hunger within reach the 2030. And the bank led the way before the un Member States and adopting the school. What i say is go for it. It. Make a sound serious plan of action in collaboration with other partners and lets get on with it. Lets not cut corners or fake it because we have a chance actually to do it and to follow the words with the action that can make a difference. There will be another goal held for all. We do not have health for all. We have so Little Health systems that we have just gone through the ebola disaster in the three countries in west africa. This is the time to put in place basic Health Systems for all and we are lucky with president jim kim heading this institution that we have one of the worlds leaders in Public Health that could hopefully that, but it is not going to happen by itself and is not going to come from the private sector. It comes from Public Health not private health. That is why we call call it Public Health and should remember that. And we need education for all because one of them will be that all children girls and boys can complete a secondary education. This, we know, would have Huge Positive feedback effects and ramification for development. Well, going down the list expanded infrastructure decarbonization of the Energy System climate safety, protection of marine and terrestrial ecosystems reducing inequalities rounds out the essence of the Sustainable Development goals. They are not finalized yet, but that idea of the economic, social, and environmental pillars is absolutely set. We know every time that you have it all you need a roadmap. I think this is extremely important. The basic concept for goal based development is back casting. Back casting means set your target and they and then work back from that future date and target to the present to say what are the things that need to be done between now and then for then and now in order to get this done . This is not forecasting. This is back casting. How do we make the bridge to where we want to be in 2030 . I really would like to see the bank do this on significant scale across all its objectives. How how do you reach the targets . It is not good enough to dream. It has got to be planned. It is got to be thought through. This is mainly about complex investing because it is complex and that the investments are in human capital, Natural Capital Natural Capital, business capital, infrastructure capital, social capitol. So it is a complex investment problem but we know how to get to the targets if we care to. This is just an example of how does 1 d compromise. Determine eyes. If you look at serious plans for handling the Climate Crisis you basically have to move from a carbon based economy to a zero Carbon Economy by around 2070. That is a mega transformation for a world that for the last 200 years has grown up on fossil fuel, but we have the technological mix to do it but it requires strategy and this graphic which i we will not go into detail says the strategy everywhere is based on three big pillars, Energy Efficiency zero or low carbon electricity and essentially electrification of vehicles. The good news is, we will all be driving tesla soon or the equivalent. They are a lot of fun much better cars, and do and do not emit Greenhouse Gases out of the tailpipe. So this is so this is the kind of change that we are going to need in the future. We are going to need Public Private partnerships to develop and diffuse the technologies for the era of Sustainable Development, whether Energy Systems agricultural systems, smart cities to more ict enabled Health Education command governance. Our governance institutions need radical overhauls. I am looking forward to the day when we all draft legislation together and vote on it and can bypass what is going down the block in congress where they do not represent us and we do not need them to represent us any longer because unlike 1789 we do not have to take our horse and carriage to washington. We can decide as citizens. It is an example, but i think that it is an important idea that we can use our new Information Technologies to overhaul we are doing to make systems that can work in the 21st century. Financing for development is core for this institution has the worlds financially for development. What do we need for success . I think we need new global funds for health, education, smallholder and culture, increased official Development Assistance especially new donors like china and others because the old donors are tired. They have cut their taxes for the rich and then say we dont have any money. We need actually to go after the 1800 billionaires to 1800 billionaires to tell them how they can find meaning in their lives by helping to solve real problems. The forbes list this week show that the 1800 billionaires have a combined net worth of 7 trillion the 1800. If you put that into a Columbia University endowment or a world Bank Endowment that would have a payout of 350 billion per year from those 1800 individuals. So i we will be going door to door soon and would like anyone else who wants to join me to join me because i really do believe that there is an opportunity for those individuals who have been for whatever reasons blessed by great good fortune to give back because there is no way in the world that the physical finite individual can use that money use anymore than the tiniest fraction of that money. And we need to make the private Financial System work better. Why was the private Financial System financing drilling in the arctic for example, for world . What lesser cause could there be in the whole world than finding new high cost arctic hydrocarbons . We already have more than all the hydrocarbons we can safely use. We must strand a lot of them why put new money drilling in the arctic, for heavens sake . Why are we leaving a project as ridiculous as the Keystone Pipeline . We cannot use safely the oil sands. Where we debating that . We dont have a plan and the vested interests are powerful and that is the only reason. So we need a Financial System that directs money to the right causes. If keystone goes forward, i dearly hope but also believe that whoever invests will go bankrupt later on because we cannot use that stuff safely so lets say it measure it and understand why it is not a good investment aside from the fact that it is not wise policy. What are we thinking . Politicians do not want to do, and arithmetic. They dont even want to do arithmetic command that is really a serious problem, and we are going to be a significant boost of sustainable infrastructure around the world and have no doubt that this institution will play a quarter, leading role in helping to mobilize private funds alongside public funds what is development thinking after all in order to fund the trillions of dollars of sustainable infrastructure. One could talk one could talk about all of the specifics, what to do, this slide is a wonderful article from Nature Magazine which estimated where we should be stranding the oil gas, and coal because it is too high cost and to carbon intensive to safely use. What it shows for example is that 74 percent of canadas oil are unusable safely in a 2 degrees celsius limited world. In other words if we keep climate safety you cannot use that stuff which is the basics we ought to be making very clear to ourselves. Africa, the epicenter of extreme poverty has wonderful possibilities for moving forward. Perhaps the best Solar Energy Potential in the entire world. It is a region that is the most impoverished, the bottom of the development he , but it has got a wonderful solar resources, and i am am looking forward to the revenge of the desert when places that have been impoverished up until now suddenly have the highest Quality Energy source for the whole world, not just themselves command we should help to build that out for them for ending poverty and for providing a clean, low carbon Energy System. In general, just like we need targets for health and education i want the world bank to help put on the map the goal for sustainable infrastructure. This is the exercise for africa for energy and transport. Lets have goals and think about how to finance those projects with the blend of public and private financing and. So to conclude, in this new age of Sustainable Development what other critical roles of these institutions like the world bank and others the Major International financials tuitions. First, and the mbg time captures have Poverty Reduction strategy papers they were helpful for directing attention to the needs of the poor and for Poverty Reduction. I believe that as part of the new Sustainable Development goals the un Member States will encourage countries to have Sustainable Development plans. I am looking forward to the United States and one because it is urgent here to address inequality and to address our increasingly dangerous Environmental Crisis. So that it will be one part of the work ahead, support countries in implementing their Sustainable Development plans. Second, of course is Leverage Private sector financing for sustainable infrastructure and Climate Change mitigation and adaptation, one of the great challenges of the coming generation. Third is to support and partner with knew global funds for health, education, ecosystems, smallholder agriculture so that we can make the high quality targeted, scaled investments to achieve the Sustainable Development goals. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much. [applause] okay. We have room for about 30 minutes of questions. If we use all of your time for questions you wont get to sign any books. There are quite a lot of people watching online command i have received some questions. In the in the meantime if you have questions lineup in front of the two mics so that people online will be able to hear. Let me start with some Great Questions here. Lets start with this one from adriano. Do you think Nuclear Power should be pursued as a way to develop the unsustainably . We are in the un Sustainable Development Solution Network calling on each country to make a deep decarbonization pathway. What we mean by that is to look forward 40 years essentially to say how can our economy given our Resource Base reach very low levels of co2 emissions roughly 1 ton per capita or between one and one half tons per capita by the year 2050. Each country will have its own decisions on that based upon its Resource Base, its alternatives available and its vision and views on issues like Nuclear Power. There will be massive Nuclear Power programs around the world in china, india, korea the probably in 20 or 30 countries around the world Nuclear Power we will be a major option. It is a zero carbon emission Energy System if it is. Chosen by many places around the world. Of course it poses risks risks of accidents and proliferation of fissile material. Other countries are saying we dont want that. Germany says no way. But germany has closed a lot of its nuclear. What it what it is doing in the short term is using more call. So emissions are rising. This does not make sense. Either you have a plan to reduce your emissions using nuclear and mx or if you dont want no clear how an alternative, but every country has to be on the path of deep decarbonization so i think that this question will turn out to be a National Question command many countries will choose this option. Of course we need International Standards and transparency. Other countries will mark. One other thing i could say that could say about energy is to achieve near zero carbon we need a Regional Power systems as well as highly distributed power both both ends not just the National Grid the original transmission. The famous project 50 years on the table since 1964 which is enough hydropower in Central Africa to power all of Central Africas needs. It should be done. But then it needs original structure. Lets take a question. [inaudible question] we focus on conflict and violence prevention. Thank you for your wonderful presentation. Advocating. How do you look at violence. You can see conflicts. Most of them are university graduates. How to me how do we integrate them into communities so that they dont cause problems . They are the leaders for tomorrow. They come and take what you are putting in businesses interrupting. How do we make this happen in africa. How do we collaborate . [inaudible question] thank you so much for your presentation. You know, know like every other problem that we are talking about all we are dealing with complex phenomenon we need a differential diagnosis like the doctors would call it to understand why it is happening in the different places it is have. A lot a lot of conflicts are conflicts of poverty or crisis, Environmental Crisis both these to kenya in the border was somalia. It has been a failed state for 25 years, but it is almost unmanageable because it is a drought ridden impoverished country. Right right across the red sea from somalias you can also in chaos right now. When. When i was in yemen ten years ago i came back shaking. I i came to washington and said, yemen is going to collapse. No one cared. One of one of the big problems is almost no one cares about poor people the world bank is an exception but very few people care about poor people which is a big problem. There remain poor and suffering. The 2nd kind of conflict take the conflict in syria and iraq for example. There are many aspects of that conflict. Syria as i mentioned had a massive Environmental Crisis as a prelude to its conflict, but it is not it was tender that set it off and away. Why is there so much killing . It is a geopolitical proxy war going on. The United States says they want to overthrow assault. Bad idea. When when governments say they will overthrow this one and their allies is no and suddenly we are in a proxy war who suffers from . Just the syrians. They die. Everyone no space politics. Then when you do that you open up even more horrific disasters. Disasters. Who could be worse . Asad has to go. I wish they could think a little bit. Really its a problem. Its a different kind of issue. But these questions into the United Nations. The Security Council is the only legitimate basis for International Law and for finding peace and not just great powers doing what they think is so cold in their best interest. I would distinguish the different causes and try especially when the issue the issue is poverty, lack of schooling, like of employment that creates so much local violence that we address that through more active development. Of course, governments need to be partners in this, no question which requires the degree of Good Governance that makes it possible to make these interventions. Another question from the room. Thank you. I work for the Climate Change vp here at the world bank. Thank you for your wonderful presentation. Considering the heaviness of the plethora of changes that we have to achieve Sustainable Development what do you think from an individual perspective is the single most important factor for anyone of us that we can do in our everyday lives to really pursue any part of these important factors. Thank you. After you read my book you will have a really good sense of that question and answers, many answers all through the book but the serious. I do believe is 1st the attention the realization that it is your generation that needs to solve this. The last generation could get by ignoring it and bring us up to the specials. Now we are right up with our backs against the wall which is sad because we signed the climate treaty 22 years ago i did not do anything about it. Now these co2 has increased to a level that if we dont take Decisive Action now we cannot stay below the two did resources for. The 1st thing is understand that this is real we have to call out the phony politics in different places in the world. The senate has been bought by the oil industry pure and simple. The code brothers but and the money. Turns out it is cheap to buy the congress. You have to be a billionaire, but you dont have to spend that much money to buy the congress and then we get miserable results. As citizens, we need to be clear, stop the phoniness that we need to act, we need to demand of government. The most important thing i would say is we have a 2degree celsius upper limit how do you achieve that. We have about 1 billion tons of co2 have to burn. February 36000000000 tons a year and now every the bank encourage every member can have a deep decarbonization strategy. Individuals are cities are nations. We we need to plan how to move out of the Energy System tricky because we live in systems. So in my sense i cant do anything about it to say that con ed in new york on mayor deblasio or are congress will make it so that when we turn on the switch it is not committing co2. Everything we do there is a limit to a limit to what we can do individually because we are part of these complex systems. How people write to me all the time. Time. You are a hypocrite. Im going to stay in airplanes. I believe in the. The. Is airplanes could use advanced biofuels. the. Is airplanes could use advanced biofuels. There is a solution. You on most told me last month airplanes, if we get to the following specs on batteries could be electric powered. Powered. I believe him because he knows what hes doing. The. That i want to make is as individuals our 1st job is as citizens our 2nd is as professionals. To insist on the changes needed on the scale that is needed on the time horizon that is needed to really get the job done. And the problem is our governments do not really want to hear this too much. If you go to your board australia does not want to here anything about this. It is a mining country. Canada does not want to here about it. Wants to sell heavy oil from, oil sands. The United States is not want to here about it. Wants to crack. We have all of this interest in the short term no one doing the arithmetic. As an International Lead agency i think the bank can play a huge role during the arithmetic and insisting on members during the arithmetic also and thats why the study was so crucial, wonderful study very clear, very persuasive very useful, and now we need the 2degree study which says to every country, here is what you can do so that you can find a new Energy System that works. And and then finally to come back to the basic. We need Regional Cooperation so that it is beyond an individual Member States. We need regional infrastructure that works. That means a lot of Regional Cooperation but it also means for the bank knew ways to went because the bank has a hard time doing multicultural and. And and that needs to be a realistic part of the solutions as well. Let me just. Out, jeff came down on the train this morning. I did. Another question from of your online. Jeremy stevens asks we were recently warned about the dangers of the future automation. Pertaining to Development Automation could eliminate laborintensive goods. Good or bad for development. Finding jobs in the future automation. Thanks a lot. I just put out a paper and will put out another which asked the question suppose we wake up one day and the robots are more efficient. What does it mean . Basic economic theory. Of view one can say that in principle they are all better off we can do more for us. In fact, fact, if you just let markets handle this it could actually in his rise a lot of people. That is really the basic message that we should not be Anti Technology but we should understand in general technology does not guarantee Sustainable Development but it is a tool that is used in conjunction with other instruments can be improving of human wellbeing. When when it comes to the robots in this little model that i will publish in the next couple of weeks with a couple of wonderful coauthors when the robots become more productive and saving shifts to the robotics sector, it robotic sector, it ships away from other kinds of capitol goods and the workers that used to work on the Assembly Line all of a sudden find themselves with lower labor demand and falling wages. It is purely sound, basic economics a better robots can lower wages and i think that is probably happening right now. Then lower wages could turn into lower saving. Think of the overlapping generations. Lower savings lower savings means lower wellbeing of the next generation and so forth. Well, you cant show theoretically perfectly soundly that a robotics productivity increase could in his rise all future generations but also you can show and the model that with a little bit of smarts and Income Redistribution the same productivity shot could raise the wellbeing that something were good at. Another almost 300,000 jobs created this month. Good recovery. Wages flat. A big mystery what is happening. My view is structural change in the labor market that is reduce the labor demand curve. Big profit reducing labor demand making it harder for many people to find jobs and especially bill paying jobs. The labor demand is shifting and even if jobs are being created, they are lowwage jobs in the high productivity high profit environment. And that requires some Income Redistribution. Okay. Lets see if we can achieve many things at the same time. A hard stop at 2 00 oclock. Three people want to ask questions. If i could ask you each to ask a question briefly one after the other jeff can answer command if we are really smart he can quickly sign a few books as well. Thank you. I represent an ngo. What do you think about africa that will have a positive effect. I am actually in the education sign. I had a question about everything youre saying is clearly in our longterm collective interest, but you have not also clearly often not in our shortterm individual interest. What are the Broad Strokes of what it would look like for us to show the restraint needed to work toward these goals. I hope these might be easy questions. [laughter] thank you for the excellent thing. Like always it is good to hear you again. As you know my interest is in revenue. You talked about the wonderful things that you do and also that financing. One of the you also mentioned that donors are getting domestic mobilization. Cheating the country or aligning the power elite to create systems that benefit them but impoverished the countries. Natural resources as well as financial resources. Very little capacity for infrastructure and services to keep up and not enough urbanbased job creation. So we are calling for urbanbased Development Strategies really to empower the metropolitan area to make Sustainable Development strategies for the next 15 years because Sustainable Organization will be one of the sbgs. Im cochairing a commission for mayor de blasio in new york city thats doing exactly that. What kind of cross sector planet can be good for new york citys Sustainable Development and i hope other cities will do the same. How did we get the longterm interest . I actually think its also not really outside of our shortterm interest either. There are powerful vested interests that are playing not a helpful role such as the oil interest right now the traditional fossil fuel interest interest, the superrich who just want tax cuts. Thats not all superrich but its a lot of them and we have more billionaires and more private wealth than ever before that really needs to be put to public purpose. So i dont actually think that its really the tradeoff of shortterm and longterm as much as it is power distribution. Right now i think most of the world wants the right things but our politics do not get organized and there is a lot of complexity to doing the right angst so its a mix of the skills and the clarity and the power to do it. I believe that the voice of the world can be heard even over the power of these vested interests. When it comes to financing what we really need of course first is transparency of contracts and resource flows because until recently the oil contracts, the mining contracts were not public. Their world to payments were not known. Step by step there is a little bit more knowledge of these even when the world bank was involved in helping to lead the chad cameroon pipeline. The terms of those contracts were secret and what exons terms were in chad for example i remember asking the bank i want to see those contracts. No, no those are secret and thats where we can go on this way. We need these all to be transparent. The country should look over and say oh my neighbors getting a higher tax rate. Thats interesting. Lets understand why our worldly why our world he rated so low. Now the other kind of transparency is we have to close down the tax havens the way they operate. What is Private Banking . The minister will take your money and put it someplace safe. That is a lot of what Private Banking is. And that is we will help to hide resource folks. So why do the small caribbean islands host trillions of dollars of deposits . Because of their innate great banking sectors . No. Why do some of the Worlds Largest Multinational Companies collect their profits in bermuda bermuda . Did sergei brin and larry page really do their greatest Google Research in bermuda . No, they did it at stanford so why are the taxes or why youre the international profits going to bermuda . Because the irs gave them a free pass. This is what has to stop. Come on. How were we going to get through if

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