We cant simply go on growing the way we are growing. So the idea of Sustainable Development is to overcome what will be growing disasters like our super storms air in cities that we choke on in the major cities of asia, pervasive drought. For example, the megadrought in brazil just now. Some of you may have seen the really frightening but impolite unpredictable predictable story in the New York Times that said and sao paulo now where theres a massive drop that was basically unattended by policymakers for year as it was unfolding. There is now a fever epidemic because water storage tanks were put around the city and lo and behold mosquitoes are breeding in them and disease is soaring and sao paulo. This is a general proposition. You push them out of their normal state. Youre not going to get the one thing going wrong. Ebook it many things going wrong. Its predictable that the unpredictable will occur and thats whats happening in sao paulo. And you have drought, forest fires, mega floods, one in a thousand your floods in bosnia, serbia, the baltics region. Last summer, huge storms in japan. Similarly because of the very heavy loading of water in this warming climate. So you get more snowfall or you get more rainfall in the wet places. And the dry places become drier, whether its sao paulo or california now which has a megadrought. One of my colleagues at the Earth Institute published last week a study showing that these mega droughts are likely to intensify in the 21st century india southwest and enemy planes because the climate model say those will be dry zones. And this is where the droughts or today around the world actually this is a map from october. I dont like this, frankly. Youve got the mideast in drought. And in conflict. And those are related as well. A couple of days ago another group of my colleagues published another paper in the proceedings of the National Academy of sciences showing that the syrian conflict which broke out in 2011 was preceded by five years of unprecedented drought and huge displacement of populations. I was with one of the leading humanitarian organizations yesterday in new york and they were saying mrs. Is booming. Theres more refugees, more displaced people more horrendous cases of suffering than ever before, and we were both commiserating, there is no way that our humanitarian system can keep up with this, its impossible. If we dont head off the growing number of crises and get ahead of these environmental disasters, we will find them running out of control. Now, this is the map i promised to show you. This is the summary for 2014 of the climate anomalies. It was warm everywhere in the world except for one little place which was us so other than that, or if you happen to live out, if you happen to be i guess i caught it in the north atlantic you felt warm everywhere except i guess angola namibia and the u. S. Northeast. Is meandering cold war front which is that over the winter cutting to the deep south of the u. S. And it is doing it again this year, whether thats a longterm new normal or whether its just an odd anomaly is obviously too early to say. Now, what of the quantity about all about all of this . I do believe that Sustainable Development is the calling card of our time, because it is the philosophy that says we need a holistic approach that puts economic, social, and environmental objectives in a holistic framework on par. Not just chasing gnp, not just chasing the bottom line of income, but and economic, social and environmental framework that holistic that combines these societal objectives. As an Analytical Framework is the study of complex nonlinear interacting, natural, and human systems. So Sustainable Development is both an analytical approach as well as a moral approach, in my view, both the positive and they normative framework for our time. What is important and i think maybe very lucky for us is that the 193 Member States of the United Nations decided in 2012 that we must put Sustainable Development as the core organizing principle for Global Development for the coming generation. And so at the United Nations is set to number 2527 the world will adopt Sustainable Development goals. Im putting a lot of hope in his because in general the world doesnt agree on very much of anything, but when it does agree on some things, at least they can get noticed. And the fact that the world is going to agree most likely pending the ongoing negotiations of the u. N. On new sustainable goals, i believe this can be a core organizing principle for the coming generation. In fact, as you know well there will be three major summits one after another in 2015. In september adopting the Sustainable Development goals in december agreeing we hope for the First Time Since signing the u. N. Framework convention on Climate Change on an actual way to the that treaty. And thirdly, in advance of those two summits, the financing for Sustainable Development summit in midjuly. So the diplomatic season is packed. Its packed for a lot of reasons that it all came together this year. We wont have another chance like this in a long time where we have the possibility to change course globally. And whats amazing for me is that the concept of how to change course, good concepts are on the table because theres nothing in this distracted world to say that we even hit on the right concepts, but we are actually right there within grasp with a chance to set good goals, to set a new direction on the world Energy System, and to organize a new framework for financing Sustainable Development. Sobieski geez this is the breadandbutter business of the world bank of course so they asked dg the number one is in world policy and hunger within reach. By 2030. The bank led the way for the u. N. Member states in adopting this goal. Of what they say is go for it make a sound serious plan of action in cooperation with other partners, and lets get on with it. And lets not cut corners or fake it because we have a chance actually to do it and to follow the words with action that can make a difference. There will be another goal health for all your we dont have health for all. We have so Little Health system that weve just gone through the people disaster in the three countries of west africa. This is the time to put in place basic Health Systems for all and we are lucky with president jim kim heavy this institutions that we have one of the worlds leaders and Public Health that could help lead that, but its not going to happen by itself and its not going to come from the private sector. It comes from Public Health, not private health. Thats why we call it Public Health. And we should remember that. And we need education for all because one of the sdg will be that all children, girls and boys incomplete and secondary education. And this we know would have Huge Positive feedback effects and ramification for development. Going down the list expanded infrastructure, decarbonization of the Energy System, climate safety, protection of marine and terrestrial ecosystems, reducing inequalities rounds out the essence of the Sustainable Development goals. They are not finalized yet but that idea to economic social and environmental pillars is absolutely set. We know every time you have a goal, you need a roadmap. And i think this is extremely important. The basic concept for goldbased development is fantastic back casting. Datacasting means such a target enter date and then work back from the future date and target to the present to say what are the things that need to be done between now and then, or then and now in order to get this done . This is not forecasting. This is not casting, saying how to make the bridge to where we want to be in 2030 . I really would like to see the bank do this on significant scale across all its objectives. How do you reach the target . Its not good enough to dream. Its got to be planned. Its got to be thought through. This is mainly about complex investing, because its complex in the that the investments are in human capital, natural capital, business capital, infrastructure capital, social capital. So its a complex investment problem, but we know how to get to the targets if we care to. This is just an example of how does one decarbonize. If you look at the series plans for handling the Energy Climate crisis, you basically have to move from a carbonbased economy to a zero Carbon Economy by around 2070. Thats a mega transformation for a world that for the last 200 years has grown up on fossil fuel. But we have the technological next to do it or are within reach, but it requires a strategy. And this graphic which i wont go into detail, says the strategy ever is based on three big pillars, energy efficiency, zero or low carbon electricity, and essentially electrification of the coast. The good news is we will all be driving test was soon, or the equivalent. They are a lot of fun, they are much better cars and they dont emit Greenhouse Gases out of the tailpipe. And to this is the kind of change that we are going to need in the future. We are going to need publicprivate partnerships to develop and diffuse the technologies for the era of sustainable develop whether its in Energy Systems agriculture systems, smart cities or ict enabled health, education and government. I think our governance institutions also need radical overhauls. Im looking forward to the day when we all draft legislation together and we all vote on it and we can bypass whats going down, up and down the block in congress where they dont represent us and we dont need them to represent us anymore. Against unlike 1789 we dont have to take our horse and carriage to washington. We can actually decide as citizens. Its an example but i think its an important idea that we can use our new Information Technologies to overhaul what we are doing to make systems that can work in the 21st century. Financing for development is core for this institution as the worlds financial leader for development. What do we need for success in the sdgs . I think we need new global fund for health, education smallholder agriculture. We need increased official Development Assistance especially new donors like china and others because they all the donors are tired. They have cut their taxes on the rich and then they say we dont have any money. We did actually to go after the 1800 billionaires by helping to solve world problems. The forbes list this weeks this week showed the 1800 billionaires have a combined network of 7 trillion the 1800. If you put that into a Columbia University endowment or a world bank endowment, that would have a payout of 350 billion a year from those 1800 individuals. Im going to be going doortodoor soon and id like anyone else who wants to join me door to door to join me on that adventure. Because i really do believe that there is an opportunity for those individuals who have been, for whatever reasons, blessed by great good fortune to give back now because theres no way in the world that a physical find that individual can use of that money, can use any more than the tiniest fraction of that money. And we need to make a private Financial System work better. Why was the private Financial System financing drilling in the arctic, for example, for oil . What lesser cause good to be in the whole world and finding new highcost arctic hydrocarbons . We already have more than all the hydrocarbons we can safely use. We have to strand a lot of those. Why are we putting new money drilling in the arctic, for heavens sake . Why are we even debating a project as ridiculous as the Keystone Pipeline . We cant use safely the oil sands. So why are we debating that . Because we dont have a plan and because the vested interests are very powerful. Thats the only reason. So when you a Financial System that directs money to the right causes. If he still goes forward ideal to help but i also believe that whoever interest in it will go bankrupt later on, because we cant use that stuff safely. So lets say it measure it and understand why its not a good investment, aside from the fact that it is not a wise public policy. What are we thinking of . Politicians dont want to do carbon arithmetic. They dont even want to do arithmetic, and that is really a serious problem. And were going to need a significant boost of the sustainable infrastructure around the world. You can have no doubt this institution will play a core leading role in helping to mobilize private funds alongside public funds, what is Development Banking after all, in order to fund the trillions of dollars of new sustainable infrastructure. Want to talk about all of the specifics, what to do. This life actually is from a wonderful article from Nature Magazine last month which estimated where we should be stranding the oil gas and coal because its to highcost, its to carbon intensive to safely use. And what it shows, for example is that 74 of canadas oils thats mainly the oil sands, are unusable safely in a two degrees celsius limit world. In other words, if they keep climate safety you cant use the stuff, and thats the basics we got to be making very clear to ourselves. Africa, still the epicenter of extreme poverty, has wonderful possibilities for moving forward. Just to mention perhaps the best Solar Energy Potential in the entire world. Its a region that is the most impoverished, the bottom of the development, but its got a wonderful solo resources, and im looking forward to the revenge of the desert when places that have been impoverished up until now suddenly have the highest Quality Energy source of the whole world, not just for themselves, and we should help build that out for them for ending poverty and or provide a clean, low Carbon Energy system. In general, just like we need targets for health and education, i really do want the world bank to help put on the map, whats the goal for sustainable infrastructure for the year 2030. This is an exercise for africa for energy and transport. Lets have goals. Beenthen lets think about how to finance those projects with a blend of public and private financing. So just to conclude come in this new age of Sustainable Development, what are the critical roles of late institutions like the world bank and others, the Major InternationalFinancial Institutions . First, countries had Poverty Reduction strategy papers. They were very helpful for directing attention to the needs of the poor and for Poverty Reduction. I do believe that as part of the new Sustainable Development goals, the u. N. Member states will encourage countries to have Sustainable Development plans. Im really looking forward to the United States having one because its urgent here to address inequality and to address our increasingly dangerous Environmental Crisis. So that will be one part of the work ahead, support countries in implementing their Sustainable Development plans. Second, of course, is Leverage Private sector financing for sustainable infrastructure and Climate Change mitigation and adaptation, one of the great challenges of the coming generation. And a third is to support and partner with new global funds for health, education ecosystems smallholder agriculture so that we can make a high quality targeted scaled investments to achieve the Sustainable Development goals. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much. [applause] i said we would leave room for about 30 minutes of questions. But, of course, it we is all of the time for questions you will be able to cite any books and some people may want their books signed, so lets new ones that a little. There are quite a lot of people watching online and ive received some questions. Ill take one of those. In the meantime if you have questions can get lined up in front of the tube mics there so that people in line will be able to hear. So jeff, let me start with some quick questions here. Lets start with this one. Do you think Nuclear Power should still be pursued as a way to develop the earth sustainably . We are in the u. N. Sustainable Development Solutions network calling on each country to make a deep decarbonization pathway and what we mean by that is to look forward 40 years essentially to say how can our economy given our Resource Base reach very low levels of co2 emissions. Roughly one tons per capita, or between one and one that have tons per capita, for example, by the year 2050. Each country will have its own decisions on that based on its Resource Base, its alternatives available, and its vision and views on issues like Nuclear Power. There will be massive Nuclear Power programs around the world in china, and india come in korea, at least ma but probably in 20 or 30 countries around the world Nuclear Power will be a major option. It is a zero carbon Emission Energy system. And 80 has been chosen by many many places around the world. Of course theres risks of accidents and risks of proliferation of fissile material. Other countries are saying no we dont want that. Germany says no way. We are closing down our nuclear. But germany is close to a lot of its nuclear but then what its doing in the short term is using more coal. And so its emissions are rising. This doesnt make sense. Either you have a plan to reduce your emissions with using nuclear in the next or if you dont want nuclear, you have to have an alternative. That every country has to be on a path of deep decarbonization. And so i think that this question will turn out to be a national question, and many country will choose this option. Of course, we need International Standards and transparency. Other countries will not. And one other thing i will say about energy is about to achieve new zero carbon we need Regional Power systems as well as highly distributed power oath, both ends, not just the National Grid but regional transmission, for example, the famous project for now 50 years on the table since 1964, which is enough hydropower in Central Africa to power all of Central Africas needs. It should be done but then it needs a regional structure for it. Lets take a question in the room. Im president of the work session called hope for tomorrow. We focus on conflict and violence prevention. Thank you so much for your wonderful presentation. How do you look at the violence . He talked about development. You can see in like africa more violence, font conflict. Most of them are university graduates, high school graduates. How do we integrate them into actual leadership in the communities so that they dont cause problems but because they are the leaders for tomorrow. If we dont take action now its a problem for the future. With violence conflicts you dont expect any development as much as you want to fight. They come and take what you put in and businesses, the interrupt. So how do we make this happen in africa . So how do we collaborate . The world bank, you and others partners, publicprivate partners with civic society. Thank you so much for your presentation. Thank you. I think like every other problem that were talking about when were dealing with complex phenomena like conflict, we need a differential diagnosis like that doctors would call it, to understand why its happening into different places where its happening. A lot of complex a complex of poverty or crisis, Environmental Crisis. Take northeast kenya and your border with somalia, for example. Somalia has been a failed state for 25 years, but its almost unmanageable because it is a drought ridden impoverished country. Right across the red sea from somalia to yemen also in chaos right now. When i was in yemen 10 years ago i came back shaken. I came to washington. I said yemen is going to collapse, we should do something. No one cared at all. So one of the big problems is almost no one cares about poor people, except maybe the world bank. I wont say maybe the world bank. The world bank is an exception, but very few people care about poor people, and thats a big problem so they remain poor and suffering and no one wants to do much. A second kind of conflict is take the conflict in syria and iraq for example right now. Governing aspects of the conflict. Syria, as i mentioned, had a massive Environmental Crisis as a prelude to its conflict, but it was tender that set it off anyway. But why is there so much killing there . Is that the geopolitical proxy war going on. The United States said we want to overthrow assad. Bad idea. Because when governments they were going to overthrow this one, and their allies is no, youre not coming suddenly we are in a proxy war with russia, saudi, turkey. Who suffers from that . Just a serious. They die. Agoura hills plays politics. So did you get, when you do that, then you open up even more horrific disasters. We said it could be worse aside. Now he has to go. Neither is isis. I wish down the block they could think of it before starting so many wars. So really its a problem. Thats a different kind of issue. Thats geopolitics. And the big powers could stop these wars, and what i played for all the time is put these question into the United Nations. Because the Security Council is the only legitimate basis for international law, and for finding peace, not just great powers doing what they think is socalled in their best interest. So i would distinguish the different causes and try especially when the issue is poverty, lack of schooling, lack of employment, that creates so much local violence, that we address that through more active development. Of course, governments need to be partners in this, theres no question, and that requires a degree of Good Governance and makes it possible to make these interventions. Lets have another question in the room. Thank you. I work for the Climate Change the peter at the world bank. Thank you for your wonderful presentation. Considering the heaviness of the plethora of changes that we have to achieve Sustainable Development, what do you think from an individual perspective is the single most important sector for anyone of us that we can do in our everyday lives to really pursue any part of these important factors . Thank you. Well, after you read my book you will have a really good sense of that question and answers, many answers all through the book. But the serious point i do believe is first, the attention. The realization that by odd fact its your generation that needs to solve this now. The last generation could kind of get by ignoring it and bring us up to these thresholds. Now we are right up with our backs against the wall which is sad because we signed the climate treaty 23 years ago and didnt do anything about it, basically. And now co2 is increased to a level that if we dont take Decisive Action now we cant stay below the two degrees celsius limit. So the first thing is understand that this is real and we have to call out the phony politics in different places in the world. In washington down the block at the capital, the senate has been bought by the oil industry. Pure and simple. The Koch Brothers put in the money, turns out its very cheap to buy congress. You have to be a billionaire but you dont have to spend all that much money to buy by the congress. And then we get miserable results. And so as citizens we need to be very clear stop the phoniness, we need to act we need to demand that governments. You go sign of real agreement. A second thing as professionals we need to do is say, stop improvising plans, think ahead. On climate the most important thing i would say for the bank over anyone is we have a two degrees celsius upper limit. How do you achieve that . Thats a carbon budget. The carbon budget says web about 1 trillion tons of co2 left to burn. We are burning 36 billion tons are emitting 36 to be right now. We have under 30 years left at the current rate which has been increasing. So we need radical transformation of im trying to encourage every country to keep decarbonization strategy. Maybe the bank could encourage every member to have a deep decarbonization strategy. Whats your plan . Without a plan you cant make any progress on this. So whether its individuals or businesses were cities or nations, we need your plan now how to move out of the Energy System. What to do with individuals very tricky because we live in systems. I actually want electricity, for example. I want to turn onto like that i wanted to go on. I do want to give that up. I just want the power plant that produces that to be a sellafield or hydro power. So in my sense i cant do anything about it except to say upon it in new york or to mayor de blasio or to present obama or to our congress, make us when we turn on the switch its not a meeting security. So thats a true when we come everything we do theres a limit to what we can do individually because we are part of the complex systems. How people people write to me all the time youre a hypocrite. You flew exwife nancy. Im going to stay in their place. I believe in them. I believe going to different places but the point is that airplanes could use advanced biofuels. So theres a solution. Elon musk told me last month airplanes, if we get to the following specs on batteries could be electric power. I believe him as he knows what hes doing. So the point i want to that is that as individuals our first job is as citizens. Our second job is as professionals to insist on the changes that are needed on the scale that is needed at the time horizon thats needed to really get the job done. And the problem is our governments dont really want to hear this too much. If you go to your board australia doesnt want to do anything about this. Its a mining country. Canada doesnt want to hear about it. It wants to sell heavy oil from oil sands. The United States doesnt want to hear about it. It wants to frac. So if all of this interest in the short term. Nobody doing the arithmetic. As an International Lead agency, i think the bank complete control doing the arithmetic and insisted on the members doing the arithmetic also. And thats why the four degrees celsius stable so crucial. Its a wonderful study, very clear, very persuasive, very useful. And now we need to two degrees celsius study which says to every country, heres what you can do so that you can find a new Energy System that works. And then finally to come back to a basic point like into the false. We need Regional Cooperation to give me on an individual member state. We need regional infrastructure that works. That means a lot Regional Cooperation, but it also means for the bank new ways to lend because the bank has a hard time doing multicountry lending. And that needs to be unrealistic part of the solutions as well. Spent just point out jeff came down on the train this morning. I did spent another question from a viewer online. Jeremy stevens asks bill gates Stephen Hawkings and elon musk have recently warned us about the dangers of the future of automation and artificial intelligence. Pertaining to development of automation could eliminate sweatshops. Is a good or bad for development but how will the world find jobs in the future of automation . Thanks a lot. I just put out a paper and im about to put out another one that everyday like i hope you have a look at it which asked the question, suppose would wake up one day and the robots are a lot more efficient. What does it mean . And now for my basic economic theory point of view, one can say that in principle we are all better off because we can do more with less. But, in fact, if you just let markets handle this, they could actually and ms. Arise a lot of people and that is really the basic message that we shouldnt be antitechnology, but we should understand in general technology doesnt guarantee Sustainable Development. But its a tool that is used in conjunction with other instruments can be improving a human well being. When it comes to the robots in this little model that i will publish in the next couple of weeks with a couple of wonderful coauthors, when the robots become more productive and saving shifts to the robotics sector, it shifts away from other kind of capital goods, and the workers that used to work on the Assembly Line quoteunquote come all of a sudden find themselves with lower labor demand and falling wages. So you really do have an effect that and its purely sound of basic economics that better robots could lower wages. I think its probably happening right now. Then lower wages could turn into lower savings. Think of the overlapping generations framework. Lower savings means lower welding of the next generation and so forth. Well, you could show theoretically perfectly soundly at a robotics productivity increase could and ms. Arise all future generations. But also you could show them the ball but with low but of smart Income Redistribution from the same productivity shot that could raise the welding of all generations, so you need an active collective distributional policy together with the technology. Not something were very good at by the way. But theres a lot of i was not drunk this. Today, for example another almost 300,000 jobs created this month, good recovery. Wages flat. Big mystery whats happening. My view is whats happening is structural change in the labor market thats actually reducing the labor demand curve. Big profits reducing labor demand, making it harder for many people to find jobs, but especially well paying jobs. So the labor demand is shifting in can even if jobs are being created, they are lowwage jobs in a high productivity high profit environment. That requires some Income Redistribution. Okay. Now lets see if we can achieve many things all at the same time. Jeff has a hard stop at 2 00. Free people ought to ask questions but if i ask you each to ask your question very briefly one after the other jeff can answer and then if we are really smart they can quickly sign a few books as well. Thank you. I represent a local ngo. I started Sustainable Development. The question is, what do you think about urbanization in africa that can specifically increases but doesnt have a positive effect [inaudible] thank you. Im actually in the education side of the bank but i do question about everything you are saying is clearly in our longterm collective interest. But you havent, and also clearly often not in our shortterm individual interest. So what are the Broad Strokes of what it would actually look like for us to show the restraint needed to to work towards these goals . I had hoped this might be easy questions. [laughter] thank you for the excellent thing. Like always it was great to you again. As you know, my interest is in revenue. To talk about all the wonderful things you do and also about financing. You also mentioned that donors are getting aid where he and we need new donors to an important push for the new Sustainable Development goal is domestic mobilization to theres a lot of and offered countries, huge Mining Companies coming in from Oil Companies coming in cheating the country, or a line with the power elite to create systems for them that benefits them but impoverish is the country. Natural resources as well as financial resources. And so so what to do about the domestic resource mobilization as a source for financing those . Thank you very much. Let me quickly respond if i could come and that would be happy to cite a few books i think i really do have a very hard stop at 2 00. On urbanization, theres very rapid urbanization and plan, unfortunately, rapid organic growth from within cities come big migration from the countryside, very little capacity for infrastructure and services to keep up. And not enough urbanbased job creation. So we are calling for urbanbased Development Strategies really to empower the metropolitan areas to make Sustainable Development strategies for the next 15 just because sustainable urbanization will be one of the sdg. I am cochairing a commission for mayor de blasio in new york city that is doing exactly that what kind of cross sector planning can be good for new york citys Sustainable Development, and i hope that other cities will do the same. How do we get the longterm interest . I actually think its also not really outside of our shortterm interest either. To our powerful vested interests there are powerful vested interest that are playing not a helpful role such as the Oil Interests right now. The traditional fossil fuel interest. The superrich who just want tax cuts. Thats not all superrich but its a lot of them and we had more billionaires and more private wealth than ever before the really needs to be put to public purpose. So i dont actually think that it is really the trail of shortterm and longterm as much as it is Power Distribution right now. I think most of the world once the right thing but our politics did not get organized, and theres a lot of complexity to doing the right things. So its a mix of the skills and the clarity and the power to do it. And i believe that the voice of the world can be heard, even over the power of these vested interests. When it comes to financing, what we really need of course first is transparency of contracts and resource flows, because until recently, the oil contracts, a mining contracts were not public. Royalty payments were not known. Step by step theres a little bit more knowledge of these even when the world bank was involved in helping to lead the chad cameroon pipeline. The terms of those contracts were secret and what excellence in terms were in chad, for example. I remember asking today, i want to see those contracts. Now know. Those were secret. And thats what we really cant go on display. This way. We need is all to be transparent. Countries should look over and said my neighbor is getting a higher tax rate thats interesting. Lets understand what our royalty rate is so low. The at the kind of transparency is would have to close down the tax havens the way they operate. What is Private Banking . Right that banking is the minister will take your money and put it someplace safe. Thats a lot of what Private Banking is. And that is, we will help to hide resource flows. Will so why do small caribbean islands host trillions of dollars of deposits . Because of their innate great banking sectors . No. Why do some of the Worlds LargestMultinational Companies collect their profits in bermuda . Did sergei brin and larry page really do the greatest Google Research in bermuda . No. They did at stanford so why are the tax system are what are the international profits going to bermuda . Because the irs gave him a free pass. This is what has to stop. Come on. How are we going to get through it the give away everything to powerful interest . Okay. Im going to conclude by reading you just two sentences from the book. I have explained that historical or geographical burdens are not state. They are not destiny. They are reasons for action. It is our job to understand how the end of poverty can be achieved, and then act to make it happen. Jeff, thank you. 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