Transcripts For WFTS This Week With George Stephanopoulos 20161106

Announcer our country at a crossroads. This is an election about change. The real question is, what kind of change . Announcer the very latest on the final stretch and the fight to the finish. 48 hours, 2 candidates, 1 new president , who will be number 45 . From abc news its this week. Here now chief anchor George Stephanopoulos. Good mo 48 hours to go in a campaign thats been anything but normal. Unpredictable, bitter and ugly, two of the least liked candidates in history slugging out out with so much at stake. Hillary clinton and donald trump in a lastminute scramble now. Hopscotching across the same handful of states as our latest tracking poll shows clinton edging up. Now five points ahead, 48 to 43. Her voters showing new signs of enthusiasm. And record numbers of americans have already turned out to vote. Democrats buoyed by a latino surge in florida and nevada. The gop encouraged in ohio and high anxiety. One sign that trumps rally last night in reno, the secret service rushed the stage. Look at it there after someone in the crowd yelled gun. There was no gun. No threat. But tensions could not be higher in these final hours. Lets get straight to our correspondents out with the candidates from the very start. Tom llamas with donald trump. Cecilia vega with hillary begin with you in philadelphia. Good morning. Reporter george, good morning to you. For the Clinton Campaign it is all about the map. We are seeing her Campaign Stops until now largely centered around these early voting state, but this strategy as election day nears seems to be shifting of her Campaign Stops now focused on states where voting is mostly happening on tuesday. This mad dash to the finish line, take a look. Weve got a map for you. She has touched down in six battleground states in the final four days of this race, most of in pennsylvania. We also see her calling on a whos who, a long list of celebrity friends from beyonce and jay z on friday in ohio to bon jovi overnight in florida and right here in philly, overnight, katy perry and Hillary Clinton together on stage and the goal, of course, is that shes hoping shes big names will push supporters to the poll, george, in this final stretch. Now, cecilia, the clinton team does seem a little bit concerned going back to pennsylvania, going to michigan, as well. What else are t theyre worried about and what gives them the most hope . Reporter theyre hopeful, george, about some scenes like this. Early voting, take a look. Weve got some video for you. This is nevada a long line of voters mostly latinos waiting hours to cast their ballots. That gives them hope. You mentioned it, michigan. They say they are seeing tightening in the polls there and we are seeing some scheduled changes. Hillary clinton heading there tomorrow along with president obama. He will be there too and, george, former president clinton is there today. He is in denver. Some lastminute shifts for the Trump Campaign too. Reporter george, good morning. That is so true. A look at the map right now. Kellyanne conway, Trumps Campaign manager, calls florida, iowa, ohio and North Carolina their core four. They need those states. But theyre also hitting six other states and there was a surprise yesterday, they canceled an event in wisconsin and now going to minnesota today. Some people say this is a desperate move because a republican hasnt won since 1972. That was richard nixon, donald trump is going to stop at an airport hangar there during a vikings game. When asked why hes doing it, donald trump said they saw a promising poll and thats why theyre going there. Now, donald trump is hitting so many states, hes hosting so many events and hes using that grueling schedule that marathon campaigning as an attack on Hillary Clinton. Heres what he had to say. She has no energy. You know, you need energy to help this country. Like, for instance, im going to every day. You need energy here, folks. She goes home and she goes to sleep. s, tom, picking up on what cecilia is talking about, that state of michigan had a big surprise for Hillary Clinton back in the primaries where Bernie Sanders surprised everybody by winning. The Trump Campaign banking on the same thing. He is headed to michigan and will be at that event and invested time and resources in that state but something thats concerning them is the state of nevada. Just last night trump announced a rigged election because one of the polling locations stayed open two hours later. Thats because people were waiting in line for two hours and as cecilia had mentioned, those large groups of latino voters voting early definitely worrying the Trump Campaign. George. Thanks, guys. Tay safe out there. Now lets bring in jon karl. We will take a deeper dive at the electioral map. Your latest ratings. The map is still favoring Hillary Clinton. Although the battleground has the red states are states that we have rated advantage trump. Blue, advantage, Hillary Clinton, gray are the tossups. If you look at it right now, george, Hillary Clinton even just with the states that already advantage her is at 275 electoral vote, enough to become president. Clearest path to victory. But shes got several paths. Yeah, she has several paths. The first is simply to hang on to those blue state, particularly right here, this is her big blue fire wall, wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania, states that they are looki week, states that trump has shown signs of life. If she hangs on to that they wins narrowly but the other one is this, this really does it, the state of florida. If Hillary Clinton can win the state of florida and right now they feel confident down there, it is lights out for donald trump. Check this out. Even if he manages to win pennsylvania and wisconsin, he doesnt get what he needs. Yeah, the latino vote in florida so far that early vote astounding. What is trumps best path . Two. First of all he can win every single one of the tossup state, so all of them. He runs the take on the tossup states. Even there he comes up short. He wins the state of nevada, gets to 269, 269. Then he needs to win the single Congressional District, the second Congressional District up in maine. That is one path that would get him to 270. The other path he has, again, to win every single one of the of those states in the industrial midwest, for instance, if he takes pennsylvania, that would get him to where he needs, but, get, to do that he till needs to win every single tossup state. Jon karl, thanks very much. And we are joined by the chair of the Clinton Campaign, john podesta. John, thanks for joining us this morning. You saw our poll, fivepoint lead. Where do you see the race. Well, look, we feel pretty good, george, but were leaving nothing to chance and will run through the tape. There is a lot of work to do polls close, tuesday night. So, were feeling good, were closing strong, but weve got a tremendous amount of work to do. Weve got a million volunteers across the country who are doing that work for us. It seems like you got a lot of work to do in michigan. The Trump Campaign pushing very hard there going to minnesota as well. They think they can break down your blue fire wall in the upper midwest. Well, look, we feel good about minnesota. You know, he made that lastminute change to abandon wisconsin and go to minnesota. But with respect to michigan, you know, as Jonathan Karl pointed out as we hold on to nevada that looks strong in the early vote. Michigan votes for the most part on election day. You know, we think we have the you know, this race over. Were going to get over our 270 electoral votes and going where the votes are. Were going to finish strong. We feel good about michigan. And the rest of the of those in florida yesterday. We feel like weve got to do work but weve got an edge in North Carolina so there are a lot of paths to our victory. But we want to hold on to the states that we think ought to be in the democratic column and michigan is one of them. You mentioned those, florida and nevada where youve seen that surge in latino voting over the early vote period and you saw donald trump out in nevada last night saying the fact that they kept the polls open in las vegas on friday night till 10 00 rigged. Yeah, you know, thats ridiculous. People were in line and they got the people who were in line got to vote and they as normal kept the votes kept the polling place open so that they could vote but you know with donald trump, if hes losing everything is rigged. When he lost the emmys it was rigged. When he lost the primaries, you know, those occasions when he lost the primaries in the republican runup, it was rigged. So if hes losing its rigged. But i think the American People they know that this is going to be a fair election, republican voting officials across the country have said that. Marco rubio has said it, paul ryan has said it. Well see a surge of voting you noted the latino surge in florida and in nevada. Were feeling very good about that and, you know, i think were going to keep working to make sure that were successful. Surge in latinos but africanamericans have been lagging. Know, if you look at florida, for example, weve now got more early vote amongst the Africanamerican Community that than we had in 2012. As voting sites expanded in North Carolina, the vote numbers went up. And, you know, in 2012 the first africanamerican president was running for reelection but were going to try to match his numbers and were feeling like our organization can keep hillary is going to be out in philadelphia tomorrow. You know, across in with lebron james today in ohio. We are very glad to be with beyonce and jay z, donald trump inexplicably attacked them last night so im not sure thats smart for him but well do what we can to make sure that people are hearing her message that were stronger together, were going to build a country thats united. Were goi well make the right investments to create an economy thats working for everyone, not just those at the top. That message has been somewhat drowned out since the announcement from james comey he was looking at more emails and that email investigation. Other leaks from the fbi and tim kaine, your Vice President ial candidate has now said that some in the fbi are, quote, actively working in support of donald trump. Do you believe that . Well, look, you know, were all disturbed first of all by precedent, was over the advice of the leaders in the Justice Department. You know, im not challenging mr. Comeys motivation. But i do think it was unwarranted. It was a mistake and i think that republican and democratic former Justice Department officials have come out and questioned the move that he made and with respect to the leaks that have gone on throughout the week with Rudy Giuliani saying hes hearing leaks from the fbi, i dont know what to i know Elijah Cummings sent a letter to the Justice Department asking the Inspector General to investigate those leaks but im not going to you know, our job is really just to get those doors knocked, the phone calls made to get our people out to the polls. Well let other people worry about that. The most important number i saw yesterday was 7 million voter contacts we did just on one day about. Let other people worry about the rest. You said you wanted mr. Comey to come out with more information. Do you still want that or better now nothing to come out until after the election. I think that we always said that this would was, you know, would end the same place it ended last june when he said that no further action was warranted. It wasnt even a close case. Theres nothing that we believe that in the fbi, the emails that hes looking at that will change that outcome so if hes got more information, let him put it out. Thats what weve said right from the beginning of this controversy and saga. It did seem to cause Hillary Clinton the chance, her words to go high in these final ten days. You know, well have a bitterly divided country no matter who wins on tuesday. If Hillary Clinton wins, how is she going to be able to begin to heal those divisions . Shes out talking about. Thats what she was saying in florida. That shes going to be a president for everyone, for people who supported her, people who didnt support her. Shes closing with a twominute ad that is optimistic, that talks about what she wants to do for the country. In contrast, donald trump has a twominute ad that looks like its kind of ripped from a batman movie. He kind of lives in a dark place and hes run this campaign on division, bigotry, were going to try t about what we can do to make sure every kid has a chance to succeed, thats what shes done her whole life. Thats what shell do as president and, you know, shes gotten success with that. Working with republicans and democrats to do things like the Childrens Health insurance program, like making sure that First Responders got health care that they needed. The National Guardsmen and women got the health care they needed. She knows how to work across the aisle. Thats what shes going to do as we are joined by the chair of the Republican Party reince priebus. Mr. Priebus, thanks for joining us. You heard john podesta right there. Our poll has it a fivepoint lead for Hillary Clinton. New nbc poll, fourpoint lead for Hillary Clinton. Are you fighting from behind . No, i dont think were fighting from behind. Weve got the momentum, george. I mean thats the difference in this election. You know, you can close and get stronger and stronger to the finish line. You know more than anyone momentum is everything you need and theres no question that over the last week and a amount of momentum. Its helping obviously his chances and its also helping all those senators out there that are running so we feel good. And we think that the American People are typing out in fact Hillary Clinton is crooked and that she has potentially broken the law and i just heard the interview about, you know, how can Hillary Clinton heal . Well, shes going to have a hard time healing the country because number one she wont win but number two even if she does she may have committed serious based on what the only conclusion weve had from the fbi director so far is that no reasonable person would have progression cuted. Thats their conclusion so far but theyre also actively reviewing 650,000 emails and i can assure you that, you know, we already know that many so of them are not duplicative. 650,000 emails on Anthony Weiners laptop suddenly show up about a month ago. The investigation is continuing and, look, i think the American People have serious concerns about it. I would and i think most people do and they think that obviously this is going to be a big liability for her. Going forward in these final 48 hours youre making a big play in michigan and seems like donald trump has turned away from your home state of wisconsin, whats going on in michigan right now and what is the blue state in the upper midwest where you have the best chance of winning . Well, he hasnt turned away from wisconsin, george. Mike pence was there yesterday its even possible he would go back to wisconsin tomorrow. So i mean im just want to put that out there. As far as michigan is concerned we have to look at our data and we went in we go in with 3,000 samples a night that matches public polling. Its an absolute tossup and so when you look at a place like michigan where jobs have gone to mexico and china, people are out of work and people want things to get better, i think donald trump is offering that vision for the state of michigan. And as you know, its all over. If i would have told you a year ago that we have a candidate that can win florida, ohio and michigan, we would say thats a candidate that is going to win so i think its a great opportunity for us. You slipped Something Else in there that i think is significant. Youre right michigan is significant but florida, perhaps even more and youve seen that latino surge down in florida right now. The democrats seem confident about that and they are breaking records with this early vote of yeah, but youre not saying and i know youre not doing it on purpose but theres 75,000 votes behind on Party Registration votes and early vote in florida today than they were four years ago so theyre actually, you know, heres the thing, theyre behind where they were four years ago. We lost florida by 75,000 votes four years ago. Theyre 75,000 votes behind today. And so the same thing in North Carolina. Theyre about 100,000 votes behind in nor where they were four years ago. We went into election day, george, in North Carolina four years ago down by 455,000 votes. We won North Carolina. So everyone out there needs to understand that the early vote issue can only tell you so much. If youve got to look beyond the numbers. Look at iowa. Were behind in iowa today in early vote. No one actually thinks were going to lose iowa. But were way ahead of where we were four years ago. Ohio today. So, you know, when theyre concentrating on cleveland two days before tuesday, theyre not expanding the map in ohio, i can assure you. Their plan their game plan has to be lock down cleveland, then expand through ohio. Thats not what theyre doing, george. Ohio has been a tougher tate for them this time, no question about that, nevada, donald trump says that the signs from the early vote that state is rigged. Do you believe that . Well, look, you know that were bound by so im not much fun on that subject because were under court order from 1983 so its an old, old case and thats donald Trumps Campaign that would be looking into Something Like that, not the rnc but we want to make it easy to vote for everybody. We want to make it something that everyone can participate in. We feel good that were ahead of our pace in nevada as well but, look, you know, look at colorado, george. I dont think people are talking it is a jump ball in colorado so there are lots of pathways to getting the 270. If it doesnt turn out your way were still waiting to see, donald trump says hell take a look at what happens tuesday and decide whether or not to concede if, indeed the votes are going against him. Right now a lot of the questions youve raised are starting to affect Republican Voters as well. About a quarter according to recent polls say that theyre not going to accept the results if donald trump loses on tell republicans that they should accept the results . Well, i think barring some sort of, you know, year 2000 type of an election, sure, i mean, if its clear then obviously that would be the case. But i think what donald trump is talking about is simply not, number one, no one is going to concede everything. Hillary clinton wouldnt concede everything. Donald trump wouldnt concede forgo a legitimate recount opportunity like you had in 2000 days before an election. So i think thats really the issue. So you believe hell accept a clear result . I do. And i think that the big issue, though, for donald trump is not you, but generally there is a huge media pileon and it took obviously a big toll, i think, on the election. This total and complete obsession with every transgression and trump when we have another candidate that has totally using john podesta and his teams words screwed up everything that shes ever touched. And you look at russia. You look at libya. You look at benghazi,ing loo at her macys and the clinton foundation, bill clinton inc. Larry truman said the only way a politician can get rich is by being crooked. I think both sides i think both sides would say media. Can assure you of that. I dont know too many people that 15 bleached computers and taken hatchets to blackberries and deleted 33,000 emails. Youre just throwing out a lot of words there. It doesnt if doesnt counter the conclusion of james comey. No reasonable prosecutor would bring this case but let me ask you about that was in june, george. But that was in june. What did he say last week . He said that the emails that he Anthony Weiners laptop could be pertinent. Everything you were talking about happened before june. I want to shes created shes sold her position as secretary of state to give put money in her pocket and bill clintons pocket. Something is not right. Come on. Its not normal behavior, george. You foe that. Im saying something that average, normal people would listen to and say, it doesnt million a few years after leaving public office. Its bizarre. Final question, if donald trump wins are you going to join him in the white house . No one is talking about that, george. Im running the party and i love the job. Reince priebus, thanks for joining us this morning. Thank you, sir. Youve heard from both parties. Next we turn to the battlegrounds, Martha Raddatz on the trail with voters. The latest forecast from nate silver of fivethirtyeight. And expert analysis from our powerhouse roundtable. Announcer brought to you by pfizer. Icine, it was an idea. A wild whatif. So scientists went to work. They examined 87 different protein structures and worked for 12 long years. There were thousands of patient volunteers and the hope of millions. And so after it became a medicine, someone who couldnt be cured, could be. Those new glasses . They are. Do i look smarter . Yeah, a little. Youre making money now, are you investing . Well, ive been doing some research. Let me introduce you to our broker. How much does he charge . I dont know. Okay. Uh, do you get your fees back if youre not happy . dad laughs wow, youre laughing. Thats not the way the world works. Well, the worlds changing. Are you asking enough questions charles schwab. That was invigorating youre probably wondering why ive just carved a giant wooden tiger. Well, the answer is that a real one would maul me. Ive crafted dr. Whiskers here as a visual aid to show you that should you visit the lot, carmax associates will not pounce like tigers because people dont like that. Come here to buy a car. Dr. Whiskers wont pounce. Nobody will. This october has seen more than its share of surprises. Is one more on the way . We have seen late ones before. Back in 1992 a big irancontra indictment dropped the friday before the election after the race moved away from george bush. You seem to say that you you ought the spend the whole time no, but because i dont. Dui arrest broke the thursday before the vote. Theres a report out tonight that 24 years ago i was apprehended in kennebunkport, maine, for a dui. Thats an accurate story and why now, four days before an election. I got my suspicions. And in 2004, a bin laden tape boosted bush against john kerry. On world news tonight, Osama Bin Laden shows up on a videotape four days before the election. He tries toxp its a reminder that we are engaged in a global war on terror. 48 hours to go. Were get the latest election forecast from nate silver next and ask which x factors hes thinking about and Martha Raddatz is out with voters in ohio and pennsylvania and our roundtable standing by with their final predictions. Stay with us. 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When your kids and your grandkids ask what you did in 2016 when everything was on the line, i hope youll be able to say, i voted for a better, stronger, fairer america. Both candidates in pennsylvania getting all kinds of attention in these final hours. Theyre going to cap off their campaigns with big rallies in that state and as she has all year, our Martha Raddatz is on the trail there to talk to these allimportant voters in the final hours. Reporter on the first of my trips to western pennsylvania last summer, i met monessen, pennsylvania, mayor luma you look at monessen. Jobs. Reporter the mayor is a democrat who today is still undecided between trump and clinton. How big is this town . It used to be 23,000, 24,000. Theres 7500 left. Thats all thats left. Reporter he still cant quite believe that what remains of his town is now trump country. You look at a community that never ever had republican signs because it was nono. You got trump again. You see. Trump, trump, trump, trump. But yard signs aside, for generations the small towns of western pennsylvania have trended increasingly red. Westmotherland county split 50 50 clinton dole in 1996 and hasnt looked back. Bush, bush, mccain, romney. At a diner in nearby bedford a little late. Gary wants trump. And to make us the world leader once again that everybody looks to us as the world power once again. Reporter but while small towns in pennsylvania have gone rust re the suburbs are moving in the opposite direction. In past cycles the collar counties of philadelphia have been true tossups. This year they seem more solidly blue. But you voted republican in the past . I have. I voted i consider im registered democrat but i vote either way. Im not really aligned to either. Im going to vote for hillary today. Reporter its a diverse middle class place trending younger with diverse opinions. Im doing donald trump. Reporter and who are you voting for . Im voting for hillary. So a little disagreement between you. We dont like to talk about it. Reporter a more educated population on average. For clinton. Im a former federal prosecutor, former assistant United States attorney. She happened to be secretary of state when an unfortunate incident happened. The emails, you know, i think she admits that it was a probably a poor lapse of judgment. It was nothing further than that. Reporter delaware countys 30 nonwhite compared to 5 in mayors westmo mayors westmotherland county. When waver wavered. Its going to be hillary because i think shell bring a different type of change regardless of whats going on with the whole email thing. Reporter we started out assuming that the answer to our simple question how will swing state voters behave would have a complicated answer. And for some it really will be. I may write myself in for president of the United States because im probably more qualified. Reporter but, in fact, we have seen going back 30 years getting bluer and more diverse. Small towns getting poorer and more conservative. And if those trends hold true on election day, the maps favor Hillary Clinton because there are just more people around philadelphia. We refer to these states as the rust belt as if theyre one undifferentiated thing but maybe the old two americas, so close you drive between front Martha Raddatz on the ground. Shell be a big part of our coverage tuesday. More on where the race stands right now from the forecasting guru nate silver of fivethirtyeight. Thanks for coming in. You made your bones in 2008, 2012 and nailed the election for barack obama. Like everyone else you missed donald trump in the primaries so where does your forecast have it race right now. We show a threepoint lead nationally for clinton. 21 favorite. Was for obama four years ago where four years ago we had obama ahead in states totaling 320 some electoral votes. Clinton as 270 so one state away from potentially losing the Electoral College. Rather be in her shoes than donald trump but its not a terribly safe position. Give her a 65. 7 chance to win. Win. You say she has a threepoint lead. That was about obama was the sunday before the election four years ago yet i want to put this occupien the board. At that time you showed he had an 85. 1 chance of winning. So, why the contrast right there. So, clinton is a lot weaker in the midwest where four years ago president obama was leading in ohio by four points. Clintons probably a couple of points behind there. Iowa maybe the best poll in the country, the Des Moines Register poll showed her down seven points in iowa. A state shell probably lose. Underperform among white noncollege voters. Thats even though the National Poll something about the same. Even though so but its contesting the Electoral College and her Electoral College polling in the swing states is weaker than obamas so this some sense its a deceptively large or small lead for clinton in some ways where obama had a bigger lead than youd thing, the other thing we see lots of polls that show numbers, clinton, 44 , trump, 40 . If you only have 44 of the vote that most of the undecided break in a certain way whereas it was four years ago obama, 49, romney, 46 so in that sense both candidates still need a good turnout on election day and still have their work cut out for them. We have seen a high early vote of 41 million americans voted. You dont pay that much attention to it. Our model is designed to look at the public polling and if you want to look at anything else that you want, the early vote, then thats fine and i think but democrats also in 2014 told themselves a lot of stories about how they would be saved by the early vote and got wiped out across the board in the midtemperature, overestimate how well democrats would do so would be careful. With the exception of nevada, a hard tate to poll, you know, that should be incorporated in theory in the polling numbers. Another variability weve seen here right now there have been a lot of other forecasts out there, princeton election connoisseur tum, huffington post. Several others and the new york times. Yours is much more bullish donald trump and more cautious on hillary than theirs are. Why . Because we think we have a good process and, look, you have some forecasts that show clinton with a 98 or 99 chance of winning. That doesnt pass a commonsense test which is weve seen lots of elections where theres about a threepoint polling error. In 2012 obama beat his polls in many states by about three points. If clinton were to beat her polls by three points and you see something we call a sudden trump could very easily win the Electoral College. Its all based on history. People have different ways of interpreting history but if you think a threepoint lead will be safe 9 of the time you probably didnt design the model in a good way. 48 hours before the final votes. Want to bring out donald rumsfeld. We cant know what an unknown unknown is but what the known unknowns. What are you paying attention to. Its true democrats have a larger base so if clinton gets her voters to turn africanamericans who turned out this big numbers for president obama four and eight years ago, maybe millennial voters. If they turn out in big numbers and better signs in florida and North Carolina recently, then shes in a pretty safe position. If they dont, though and if there is a big White Working Class vote for trump, if you see some suburban republicans convert back to trump at the last minute because hes been relatively quiet on the campaign trail, thats a case in which he could lose potentially. Probably win, but youve seen tightening in many different states and so theres a scenario or two by which she winds up a little short of enough electoral votes. Nate silver, youll join us tuesday night as well and well be right back were our powerhouse roundtable. Announcer this week with George Stephanopoulos is brought to you by bdo accountants and consultants. If you suffer from a dry mouth, then youll know how uncomfortable it can be. Well, there is biotene, specially formulated with moisturizers and lubricants. Biotene can provide soothing relief and it helps keep your mouth healthy too. 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Breo contains a type of medicine that increases the risk of death from asthma problems and may increase the risk of hospitalization in children and adolescents. Breo is not for people whose asthma is well controlled on a longterm asthma control medicine, like an inhaled corticosteroid. Once your asthma is well controlled, your doctor will decide if you can stop breo and prescribe a different asthma control medicine, ot take breo more than prescribed. See your doctor if your asthma does not improve or gets worse. Ask your doctor if 24hour breo could be a missing piece for you. See if youre eligible for 12 months free at mybreo. Com. I will i will assign a special prosecutor no, no, no. To make sure that she im sorry, kate. I just hate yelling all this stuff at you like this. I know, right . This whole election has been so mean. I mean, i just feel gross all the time. Lets get out of here. What. Where will we go . Youll see. . I i feel so much better. And now its time to get out there and none of this will have mattered if you dont vote . And we cant tell you who to vote for but on tuesday, we all get a chance to choose what kind of country we want to live in. Saturday night live getting earnest in the final hours. Lets talk about it with matthew dowd, republican pollster Kristen Soltis anderson, democratic congressman Keith Ellison from minnesota and republican strategist alex castellanos, democratic strategist stephanie cutter, you heard nate silver say he thinks Hillary Clinton has about a twothirds chance of winning. Where do you put things right now. Overall number or i think shes got about a 95 chance in this election and i think shes going to have a higher margin than barack obama did in 2012. Higher margin than shes going to win by more than 5 million votes. By a higher percentage and interestingly, shes going to have a more Diverse Coalition of voters than barack obama even had when you look at the final numbers this this race. Every piece of data points in that direction you take the facts into account and thats what the data. You say every piece of data but, alex castellanos, there are some signs of some movement in places like michigan. You heard nate silver talk about colorado tightening up a bit as well even though he believes Hillary Clinton will win there. It seems like the Trump Campaign is counting on this surge of white voters particularly in the midwest. In the midwest weve just seen a Des Moines Register poll where trump has expanded his lead there. He is moving in states like wisconsin, tightening the gap so could there be a little trump bump here at the end . Theres some data that says there is. Keith ellison, hes going to your home state of minnesota. I hope he stays there for a long time but, look, at the end of the day, shes offering hope and investment and hes saying just heres who you should hate and blame for all your problems. I think voters care about, you know, what that is. People want to have a better country, not just find somebody to pin it all on when it doesnt go right so i feel like things are looking good for got a really strong feeling that after we win this election, we have to have a National Dialogue on class because clearly one thing this election has shown is theres a lot of people feeling left out and we have got to do something about it. Weve seen so many different kinds of division by class, by education, by gender, by race and kristen, i want to bring that to you an i think nate had an appropriate caution on looking at the early vote but these numbers, weve seen in far greater already than they came out in 2012 could point towards one of the major stories of this election. Even if the top line numbers wind up looking similar to what they looked like four years ago i think the undercurrents in this election are telling a story about where america is headed. That we for a long time talked about democratic potential struggles with the White Working Class, republican struggles with latino voters, this election has sort of kicked awe of that into overdrive and were really testing whether or not republicans problems with thee emerging voter groups was it long term or shorter term that they needed to fix this year in order to win the white house. One other thing were testing is the organization of each campaign and seen that in force, the clinton camp in the last week. Absolutely, with the strong early vote in places like florida and nevada. And we know that a Good Campaign operation, a good operation can lead to a point or two difference and i think clinton, you know, were talking about the polls tightening. Tightening. However, shes still ahead and if you match that where more diverse than ever as a country and she has a sophisticated stateoftheart gotv operation, i agree with math. Shes got about a 95 of winning. My concern i think like kristen and matt have expressed is that florida, that hispanic vote is intense and you know when voters figure out that they dont like a candidate thats bad, but when voters figure out that a candidate doesnt like them and i think intensity there in the hispanic vote that suspects that donald trump is just not on their team. Suspects . Yeah, im being generous. Im being yen rouse here, but these two candidates have really been out of that conflicted spotlight since the last debate. Quite a few weeks ago and since then, the big forces underneath have reasserted themselves not just democrats and republicans coming home but an election that wants change and Hillary Clinton has never expressed a vision of george, to me this election has been incredibly unprecedented but incredibly predictable actually from the primary breaking down into two camps. Election night 2012, i said the problem the republicans have theyre a mad men party in a modern family world so they wrote an autopsy of the party and they basically said underlying factors we have to figure out a better way to appeal to minority voters and figure out a better way that appeal voters. On Election Night Hillary Clintons margins among nonwhite voters and College Educated will be the highest weve ever seen. Question raised by peggy noonan. She said donald trump didnt break the Republican Party. It was already broken and he exploited it. Is that true or did he break it . I think theres a little bit of truth to that. He exploited sort of fault line tass are existed within the party where when you had the party come out and say we need there were a lot of folks in the party that said, well, wait, what about me. What about the White Working Class. What about folks in these small towns like where martha was meeting voters earlier on in the show and lots of folks trump realized werent being talked to by republican establishment folks who saw the longterm political challenges. They wanted to assert their voice now. Trump or the republicans long term have a problem by working class voters because theyre not offering them anything even now. But theyre not listening to Hillary Clinton right now. Be listening but this a longerterm project because at the end of the day you got to solve these peoples problems, which is jobs, wages, affordable, infrastructure, and theyre not offering them anything to solve the two pears have a problem. The two Major Political parties today, donald trump is likely to lose and lose badly. But that is not a huge victory for Hillary Clinton in the course of this race because of while shes perceived by the American Public except for the fact that i think we could safely say that latino voters and nearly lotz single women and i dont think you could say that hillary has lost White Working Class families yet. I think if itll be pretty evident on Election Night. I think we have not as a party. We have an opportunity to address their needs as the congressman is saying. To that look at our agenda compared to Donald Trumps agenda or even to that point separating the candidate from the party is going to be important for republicans as well. Still a chance donald trump wins the wh likely event that he doesnt, to what extent do voters hold the Republican Party at large responsible for donald trump long term or do they say, you know what, he was sort of an unusual onetime thing and i think thats going to get 44 of the vote at least. 44 but hes the solution to the problem Republican Voters see, he is nothing more than an expression of the outrage of a lot of Republican Voters at the republican establishment. I agree. Our party is broken and engine way past the red line and try to get 178 of the old white guy vote and win anything so we have got to become the party of change and the party of the future. If you look at the data when we hook at the top line numbers and then we hook at the races underneath that there is a high likelihood i believe Hillary Clinton will win ohio and its going to be close. Rob portman is going to win ohio by 0 points. I think Hillary Clinton will win marco rubio will win by a decent margin and see that over and over and over again. There is not a satisfaction with either Political Party but theyre voting for Hillary Clinton you raise an important thing. If youre right about those senate races and i want to bring this to Keith Ellison even if Hillary Clinton wins on tuesday night, either she has a very close Senate Majority or maybe not a Senate Majority at all, probably not going to turn the house either. Youve already got House Republicans talking about impeachment and a series of investigations. I asked to john podesta, how coming out of this pain is Hillary Clinton if she wins going to be able to bring the country together . I think Hillary Clinton after she wins this election she go to all communities including White Working Class communities and a same here to build bridges and i need your help and tell those people who claim to represent you they need to support me in helping you get some jobs. Well, and you can see that in her closing message in this election. I also think if republicans want to fix themselves, years of investigations has never worked for them. They ought to republicans make a huge mistake. If i were Hillary Clinton two days after the election day i would meet with speaker ryan and mitch mcconnell, go to capitol hill. Have a meeting with them and the first signals youre going to see from the Hillary Clinton is not what she says, but what she does. And the staff she brings into the white house does she bring in the old palace guard thats always done the things same as usual or find new people . That will be the nall. Most president s get a honeymoon. The electorate is so polarized. If she has the challenge for her with all these legal troubles that she has, shes going to need antibody. Shes going to need to rally her party to protect her for four years and sometimes that leads a candidate to we underunderestimate the historical nature and lets assume Hillary Clinton wind, the historical nature of this election. For the largest, tallest, hardest ceiling that anybodys had to overcome electing a woman, simultaneously with the anybodys ever assembled. That is going to be a huge moment. Will good will follow from that is the question . Well, the answer is going to the people. You got to go to the working people who didnt vote for her and tell them im here for you. Youve got to do that. Its a question i mean, alex, i heard you say with all of her legal problem, what legal problems . The fbi that there is no justification for prosecution and they are looking at a series of emails that they themselves admitted have no idea what was in them. Serious issues. Takes this point of view, the country is in for a real problem. If we do reach out our hands and try to do something for this country, republicans have a chance of correcting themselves and we have a chance to actually govern. Just about out of time got to put everybody on the spot. Your predictions up on the board. I cant do it because im anchoring. That makes it easier but, matt dowd, you begin. Shes going to win 5045. Shell get very close to that 50 number which i think would be going to win 341 electoral votes which means she takes ohio. Only two states that flip are iowa and North Carolina. More than barack obama in 2012. Exactly. Kristen. I wind up going starting with that romney map and i add to trumps column ohio and i add iowa but then i take away North Carolina. I think thats a state that potentially republicans could lose this time around and then theres that Congressional District in maine. Winds up giving me a prediction of 32 for clinton. I say 341. Break 50. Yeah, ill put it there and i think that then we got a lot of healing to do which i think shes well able to do. Three clintons. 286 electoral votes for donald trump wins North Carolina and ohio and goes up through the rust belt. He barely hangs on in florida and i think if he does lose the rational brain says it would be because of the hispanic vote in florida. But i think he edges that out and the exit polls points i love your face. I love your faith. There is a secret trump vote. Let stephanie get in. That would be great. 323 electoral votes, she takes the obama map, minus iowa and ohio but takes North Carolina plus nebraska district. And n and now we honor our fellow americans who serve and sacrifice. In the month of october 3 Service Members from killed in iraq and afghanistan. That is all that is all for us today. Join us Election Night. Ill be con choring our coverage with our whole political team. Plus live coverage all day long on our abc news and facebook page. 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