Page 15 - Computer Model News Today

Steve: you had to have a drivers license or prove you live there they dont want anybody coming in. they want everybody going out. brian: 17 minutes before the the top of the hour. janice dean tracking the storm. a major update in a couple hours, right? janice: 8:00. i was listening tout hurricane hunter had you on with great information that the storm continues to mover northwestward when is it going to move due north and east? if it continues to move westward we will be dealing more impact for...

Approach land and get closer to landfall which by the way might actually happen in the next 48 to 72 hours. lets take a look at the future radar, this is wednesday, coming very close to coastal georgia, south carolina, and north carolina and this computer model has it very close to brushing, if not making a landfall and then close to the outer banks on friday. still talking about a hurricane, finally moving out to sea on the weekend to the canadian provinces. here is the latest track as of 5:00 ...

Still includes charleston, georgetown, myrtle beach, wilmington, the wrightsville beach area, emerald isle, and then heading offshore as we go throughout the day on friday. and one of the things that well be watching, too, is how close does it get to areas like nova scot scotia, and we still have nantucket close to the storm, but that forecast has actually improved. and one of the things we watch is our computer model, one of the more accurate ones is our european computer model. in the new upda...

Texas, they believe that solving difference east of west palm and east of orlando. that turn is going to be crucial the problem is through having in terms of effects for florida. more guns, and the law that they the hurricane doesnt steer itself, but when it gets this passed, the regulations that strong, it kind of does. they passed were to try to make its going to have that momentum it easier for gun owners to have and want to continue moving west. their guns in a place of worship so this is go...

Although we are beginning to see a northward bump. lets call it that. the one that we expected, the one we hoped for, and the one the bahamas are praying for right now to get it away from the islands. just an impressive eye. here you can see it on the radar. right in the bad side of the eye right now. theres no good side of the eye. even the backside is making wind gusts over 140 miles per hour right now. and the storm has been here now for 24 hours. all weekend long, this computer model was lef...

Florida? the east coast of florida? probably. will it make landfall? right now that is not something thats certain, but the computer model certainly bring it in close along that space close to florida. and then we really start to diverge more. as you can imagine, the further out we go in the forecast time period, the models dont always agree. but the fact that there are all kind of closing in right along where the jetstream is, that river of current is very warm. its the guiding force behind oth...

Change a little bit. thats why theres so much uncertainty. we talk about the actual cone. you look at the last five years, and thats the forecast. we try to communicate these uncertainties, and it does happen, especially when youre measuring thousands of parameters. when you get into the models, you can get these small changes. >> how certain are you it can go north? >> every single computer model we have is pulling it to the north. but the big question we have is where the centers going to go. ...

Difference in the eventual movement of these storms, literally thousands of parameters that were trying to measure and put into computer models to be able to get these tracks. a small change can cause that forecast track to nudge a little bit. thats why theres so much uncertainty. and we spend a lot of time talking about the actual cone because you look at the last five years, and thats the forecast error possible with that track. we try to communicate these uncertainties, and it does happen esp...

The atlantic basin. the forecast in case youre just joining us, 5:00 advisory from the national hurricane center. it will be one of the most powerful hurricanes they ever have seen in the bahamas. the forecast still calls for about 30 hours and 100-plus miles per hour in freeport. can you imagine being in your shelter, your safe room, family, kids, elderly for 30 straight hours? thats what theyre going to go through until monday afternoon when the storm finally starts to pull away. notice uncert...

Had to nudge to the north. now it has an influence. tiny changes can make a big difference in the eventual movement of the storms. thousands of parameters that were trying to measure and put into models to get the tracks. a small wobble or change can cause that forecast track to nudge a little bit. thats why theres so much uncertainty. we spent a lot of time talking about the actual cone. you look at the last five years and thats the forecast error possible with that tract. we try to communicate...