Page 11 - State Polling News Today

Some of the state polling was wrong. but we shouldnt propagate this notion that polling was wrong. >> ive been saying that since the election. glad you said that. look at national numbers and popular vote, polling pretty close. >> and just acknowledge too that donald trump is the most transparent candidate in the sense if he doesnt like it, terrible poll. if its good, he like its. glorious point about good numbers out of the polls. cnn poll matches ever other poll weve seen come out. four or fiv...

Thats when he normalized his campaign, and thats actually, ironically, his debacle with the mexican judge which may have staged a chance appears to go that is another name we should bring appeared during the firestorm, and there were several of them actually. one of the guy said that this is my job to support the nominee and did so vociferously and religiously was reince priebus. he sat with him the whole time. now reince priebus is going to be the chief of staff. >> meanwhile im at the media lo...

The things that grover norquist i think said was so great about donald trump. and that did not come up. >> at all. >> in the general election in any meaningful way. >> what did you learn? >> ill agree with almost everything you said right there. we learned that big polling is not -- actually, we learned that state polling is bad and it looks like were going to have less state polling because the field report in california is shutting down. the national polls it turns out were not -- >> pretty cl...

In terms of speaking of running against trump, politics matter. you need to make an argument about politics when youre running for political office. and i dont think that that happened enough with the clinton campaign. >> youre saying because of someones personality. >> it was so much about the personality and it was so targeted. you know, were finding out that one of the worst things about donald trump is that he has a hand that he can sign bills with. and, you know, which was one of the things...

Close. this election, again, was forecasted to be really close. people werent used to that. i think a lot of people who had been following polls, who didnt have a lot of experience in the area had a sort of naive view because the last few elections, the polls happened to be pretty close with the national election but let me give you a quote. my colleagues wrote this in "the new york times" on october 6th. this november, we would not at all be surprised to see mrs. clinton or mr. trump beat the s...

Were predicted by the polls. part of it is that people kind of forgot that the 2012 election was so close that actually obama only got 52% of the vote. we think about president obama, mitt romney as a failure, he lost the election, but it was really close. this election again was forecast to be really close. people werent used to that. i think a lot of people who had been following polls, who didnt have a lot of experience in the area, had sort of naive view because the last few elections the po...

Ahead in either state, in each of those states, and then take that and compound that across all 56 races. there are 56 races that determine the electoral college and thats over 72 quadrillion possibilities and so i have a little script that ive written on my computer that does that. it figures out what the median is or the midpoint of all those possibilities and the median currently is at 312 electoral votes so the general idea is that is our sharpest snapshot of where the race appears to be bas...

What they found which is consistent with what others say about their own polling is that when things are tough for their candidate, their base is not excited about picking up the phone. that accounts for some of the fluctuations. but it makes sense when you look at how little impact the comey letter is really having on the race when you ask people about it directly, doesnt seem to make a difference. so you look at the states, so some of the averages and the forecast like the princeton forecast w...

If you look at the overall averages, they are more stable. theres a great piece by doug rivers at real clear politics that goes into this in lots of nerdy, geeky detail that people should go read which is that what they found which is consistent with what others say about their own polling is that when things are tough for their candidate, their base is not excited about picking up the phone. that accounts for some of the fluctuations. but it makes sense when you look at how little impact the co...

Shows a one point trump lead a statistical tie. in the meantime a poll of polls has hillary clinton up four. and thats far from the only read on what appears to be a tightening race and what that means for the path to 270. john king is back with a quick run down by the numbers. still not a lot of new state polling this week john but there are a couple of signs about the impact of the fbi announcement. >> that washington post national poll does tell you you have a tightening race. it is the first...