Transcripts For BBCNEWS World 20240704 : vimarsana.com

BBCNEWS World July 4, 2024

China is experiencing a rare episode of sliding prices. Japans economy experienced this back in the 1990s and early 2000s. Now, this comes hot the heels of disappointing china trade data on tuesday, which showed that exports sank at their fastest rate since the pandemic, dropping by more 14 in the year tojuly, with imports also falling by more than 12 in the same period. Joining me now is duncan wrigley, Chief China Economist at pantheon macroeconomics. Thank you very much for being with us today. The Rest Of The World looking on in amazement. Considering the inflationary pressures the rest of us are dealing with. What do you read Between The Lines in this latest data . Between the lines in this latest data . Latest data . Ok, i mean, there are some latest data . Ok, i mean, there are some shortterm latest data . Ok, i mean, there are some shortterm factors i are some short term factors that push down the data for this month, there has been a surge of seasonal vegetables, the big picture, you are absolutely right, chinas recovery is a lot softer than was expected in the earlier part of this year when things start opening up, and chinas government is choosing this time to refrain from a big stimulus, which has been a typical response, lets say, after the Global Financial crisis. ~ ,. , ~ , crisis. Why are they keeping their feet crisis. Why are they keeping their feet on crisis. Why are they keeping their feet on the crisis. Why are they keeping their feet on the brakes crisis. Why are they keeping l their feet on the brakes when it comes to stimulating the economy . It comes to stimulating the econom . ,. , economy . Last time, ten years auo, economy . Last time, ten years aao, if economy . Last time, ten years ago. If we economy . Last time, ten years ago. If we go economy . Last time, ten years ago, if we go back economy . Last time, ten years ago, if we go back there, economy . Last time, ten years ago, if we go back there, theyl ago, if we go back there, they did this big stimulus through property, massive infrastructure, construction, there was a huge hangover, and they spent much of the last ten years up to the pandemic trying to sort out some of those problems with overinvestment in huge debt. This time they are being much more restrained, they want a healthier recovery led by consumption, led by Business Investment so they are kind of sitting back. But the consequence of that is because sentiment is quite weak, that the business and consumers, they are worried about the future, they are rising quite slowly. And as a consequence, we get a fairly slow prolonged recovery. We get a fairly slow prolonged recove. ~. ,. ,. ,. , recovery. What does it mean for the rest of recovery. What does it mean for the rest of us, recovery. What does it mean for the rest of us, that recovery. What does it mean for the rest of us, that china recovery. What does it mean for the rest of us, that china has i the rest of us, that china has always been or has been for a long time powerhouse, the juggernaut whose monumental growth drove the Rest Of The Worlds economy. Are we at a loss for china struggling or perhaps is any way in which the prices falling their could help drive down prices in the Rest Of The World . Drive down prices in the Rest Of The World . Yes, i think you have a good of the world . Yes, i think you have a good point of the world . Yes, i think you have a good point there. Of the world . Yes, i think you l have a good point there. There are two effects. 0n the good side, china will not be pulling along the Global Economy in the same way they have in the past. This year at least. Perhaps next year there is more hope. Here the west of the world faces high inflation problem, china will be exporting this inflation, through things like falling prices of cars and other commodities to the Rest Of The World this year. Are of the world this year. Are there risks of the world this year. Are there risks in of the world this year. Are there risks in the of the world this year. Are there risks in the chinese governments approach here, the new consider Youth Unemployment is so high, it was public pressure which brought an end to it zero covid policy. Could xijinping be risking political discontent over the economy . I think in terms of Youth Unemployment, most of the worst areas of unemployment. Inaudible people who are well educated, the elite, the best prospects for the future. You might get some small scale projects but they are unlikely to really engage because they have the best prospects of future. But another area of the economy which is still really suffering is the property sector, and that is a different kind of problem because there are massive debts along developers and some of those debt issues have been beginning to reappear in the last few weeks with country garden, a massive developer, on the brink of default. That is an area that poses a potential risk if it is not stabilised. It is not stabilised. 0k, duncan. It is not stabilised. 0k, duncan, thank it is not stabilised. 0k, duncan, thank you it is not stabilised. 0k, duncan, thank you for. It is not stabilised. 0k, duncan, thank you forjoining us with your thoughts today. Staying with china now, and the growing Trade Tensions between it and the us. Its being reported in the New York Times that the Biden Administration is set to issue new restrictions on American Investments in certain high tech industries. Nick marsh is in our Asia Business hub in singapore for us. What more can you tell us . That re ort what more can you tell us . That report described what more can you tell us . That report described as what more can you tell us . That report described as a what more can you tell us . Twat report described as a new front in this economic war tween the us and china. I think that is a pretty good way of describing it, really. Should we stress that the white house hasnt confirmed anything yet, the chinese havent said anything on the matter either. But if these restrictions do materialise, they will be a kind of new turning of the screw in terms of how far the us is prepared to go in its competition with china if you are going to use the language of the Biden Administration. In terms of what these new restrictions are, basically they ban private equity, Venture Capital firms, Financial Firms from investing in high tech sectors like quantum computing, ai, semiconductors of course. It requires american firms who are making investments in other Chinese Industries to disclose to the us government. It is about keeping a handle on the flow of american dollars into china and really trying to curb that and expect china to react to this. Clearly, this plays into their accusations that the United States is trying to contain china unfairly, to use beijings language this time. China also has weapons up its sleeve. Last week they put in Expert Export Controls in two key metals needed for semiconductors, but ultimately, this is that Tit For Tat Escalation between the worlds two largest economies, it shows no signs of abating, and at the end, really, it is businesses caught in the who will be losing out the most, and it does no good for confidence, especially when it comes to investing in china, even that economic picture that we just heard about earlier. Economic picture that we ust heard about earlier. � economic picture that we ust heard about earlier. Thank you very much to the uk now, and some gloomy warnings over the state of the economy. The think tank the National Institute for economic and social research has said that the uk is set for five years of lost Economic Growth with the poorest hit hardest, citing the triple impact of brexit, covid and the war in ukraine badly affecting finances. Its predicting that uk gdp thats the total value of economic value produced in any economy will remain below pre pandemic levels until the second half of next year. It also expects that it will taken until 2028 for the uk to reduce its Inflation Rate to the 2 target. Im joined now by shanti kelemen, chief Investment Officer at m g wealth investments. Thank you very much for being with us today. No doubt this is bad news, but there are a lot of struggling economies out there right now of course. As there right now of course. As the uk as well as you can see doing any better or worse than them . I doing any better or worse than them . ~. ,. , them . I think we are a little worse in them . I think we are a little worse in the them . I think we are a little worse in the inflation them . I think we are a little worse in the inflation has i them . I think we are a little i worse in the inflation has been slower to come down than in other places, in the us and europe it is coming down faster. See the experience the us experiencing more growth. There were worries about recessions. Then have to remember with these reports, they are just forecast, and six months a year ago everyone was saying we would have a potentially very steep recession. We are not talking about that right now, it is slow growth, in many ways it is a much Betterfor Carson it was. A much better for carson it was. ,. ,. ,. ,. Was. There is a lot of concern about something was. There is a lot of concern about something called about something called stagflation which is very low growth and inflation that is high. It is composed of that . Is there a risk of that here . I think we had a narrative for a while that uk inflation was just higher and sticky, but we started to see recently that it can fall, and that is driven by goods prices falling significantly. We are still seeing a lot of wage increases, and that is keeping up the core levels of inflation. This report and the Bank Of England and myself, i expect inflation will continue to fall, but it will continue to fall, but it will probably not go back to 2 for some time, so i agree with the report in that respect, and it means we probably end up with the Interest Rates, people are paying mortgages being a bit higherfor the are paying mortgages being a bit higher for the foreseeable future. ~ ,. , bit higher for the foreseeable future. ~ ,. ,. , bit higher for the foreseeable future. ~. ,. , future. Unlike so many of the factors, covid future. Unlike so many of the factors, covid and future. Unlike so many of the factors, covid and ukraine. Future. Unlike so many of the j factors, covid and ukraine for example, which are affecting the entire worlds economies, brexit was a choice for the uk, i wonder what do you think could be achieved as some of the final details of those brexit choices were revisited on things like immigration, for example . On things like immigration, for examle . ,. , example . Immigration is probably example . Immigration is probably the example . Immigration is probably the biggest example . Immigration is probably the biggest one | probably the biggest one because a big part of gdp growth being lower as we have fewer people working in the uk. Some of that is demographics and people retiring, and you have to talking have to take into account, how the demographics are changing. If you have more immigration, you can have more people working and ultimately end up with more things being done and produced. The government has done some things on specific industries where there are shortages, so maybe that is something we will see more in the future, but thatis see more in the future, but that is a challenge, countries like italy have the same demographic and working age population challenges that we have in the uk. Population challenges that we have in the uk. Thank you very much for have in the uk. Thank you very much forjoining have in the uk. Thank you very much forjoining us. To the us now after a dismal day on wall street saw all three of the major Stock Indices closing lower on tuesday, the sell off was sparked by the downgrading of several us banks by Credit Ratings agency moodys, reigniting fears over the us banking sector. Michelle fleury has the details from new york. Wall street was seeing red on tuesday, bank stocks leading the way, shares in Goldman Sachs fell 2 . The catalyst was moodys, downgrading the Credit Rating on several small and medium sized us banks, including mmt bank and pinnacle financial. The red flag is raised by the Ratings Agency included a potential recession as well as problems tied to the commercial real estate sector. 0ne analyst said any doubts about regional banking is bad for market sentiment. That wasnt held by data from new York Federal Reserve which showed that for the first time americans owed more than 1 trillion on their credit cards. Traders have also been focused on corporate results, which so far have been better than expected. That was true for coming lift that water result after the us market closed. They are forecasting higher revenue in the Third Quarter based in part on a Post Pandemic rebound in ride sharing. Meanwhile, Electric Fields Maker posted a narrower loss than expected and raised its Production Guidance for the full year. In its Production Guidance for the full ear. , , full year. In other Business Today the uks Top Financial Watchdog will write to banks today, asking for details on how and when they choose to dump their customers. The government has ordered a review in to so called � debanking with evidence that its frequently done because customers have close ties to politics. The Financial Conduct Authority will be asking banks to disclose the number of accounts they have terminated or suspended and the reasons behind those decisions. Hundreds of Amazon Sellers have complained that the online marketplace is withholding their money. Amazon said it emailed sellers about a delivery date based reserve, which holds some money in case of refunds. But some sellers have written to their mps saying they cannot get the cash needed to run their businesses. Shares of wework, the once globally hyped office space sharing company, have plunged after it raised Substa Ntial Doubt about its future. The companys shares fell by close to 24 in extended trading in new york. Wework was hit hard by the pandemic as social distancing rules drove people to work from home. And is facebook good or bad for your well being . We speak to one of the researchers behind a new Global Survey finding out just that, with some surprising results. Thats just after the break. Around the world and across the uk, this is bbc news. Vmcsovsk bbc news, bringing you different stories from across the uk. When i take my sugar to tea all the boys are jealous of me. The blayze family are absolutely potty about teapots. Theyve spent of £250,000 on the biggest collection in the uk everything from politicians to pop culture and some wild and wacky creations. Ive got a favourite, which is a Harley Davidson teapot. It was made and i saw the man make it and i see how hard it was for him to make it. And your one is. . Diana. Because diana was my favourite person. People say. Why collect teapots . And i always say, j well, why not . Theres so many different. Weird and wonderful things and once people get into the museum. And they can actually see the Different Things that we do. We got ones that are size of this sort of size and weve gotj have a 12 foot teapot in the garden. You never can believe the things that people can make. For more stories from across the uk, head to the bbc news website. Youre live with bbc news. To the world of social media now, and the biggest platform of them all facebook. It boasts nearly 3 billion monthly users across the globe, and at its best, its been cheered for bringing us together, but also criticised for tearing us apart. But is facebook good or bad for your well being . Thats the question that two researchers from oxford have been asking in the Biggest International study of its kind. With surprising results, they found no evidence that facebook is bad for you. Well, one of the people behind that study andrew przybylski, professor of Human Behaviour and technology at the Oxford Internet institute, joins me now. How did you approach this study and are you surprised by what you found . We were surprised. You hear stories about big positives and big negatives of using facebook and messenger, what we wanted to do was get the data to find out it was true or there was evidence for that. We approached meta and worked with them for two years to find out if they had the data needed, the adoption of facebook in 72 countries across 12 years and we marry that with data on Mental Health and well being, built statistical models and the results did expect surprise us with expected something bigger negative or positive but we found convincing evidence on a global scale that the role of facebook may not have had a influence

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