As King Abdullah ofjordan put it even more starkly, the whole region is on the brink of falling into the abyss, how worried should we be . If there are shocking scenes, heartbreaking even more heartbreaking than now coming out of gaza, they will feel honour bound to do something. To what extent is iran pulling the strings in gaza and lebanon . Hezbollah is a militant group. They have their own weapon, they have their own armies and they have their sole decision that is basically coming from iran, and theyre acting upon that. And china. Ten years after the belt and Road Initiative, is the worlds most impressive economy in danger of hitting the buffers . I think chinas got a big struggle to come, and the big struggle is going to come with its shrinking population. The appalling destruction at the Al Ahli Al Arabi Baptist Hospital in gaza, whoever may have been responsible for it, has overshadowed the hastily arranged visit to israel by President Biden. Yes, he was there to offer americas total, wholehearted sympathy and support to israel in the wake of the october 7th raids, but he was also there to urge israel in the strongest way to use discretion and moderation if and when it invades gaza, and very likely also to attempt to persuade israel of the need for a humanitarian corridor to allow water, food and medicines into a waterless, poor and hugely overcrowded enclave. But what about the wider picture . Lyse doucet, the bbc� s chief international correspondent, is in Southern Israel and we caught up with her in between showers of rain. In previous Military Operations and i was there in gaza for the one in 2014 the Israeli Military described its objectives and, indeed, the political leadership, described their objectives as hitting hamas hard, destroying its network of tunnels, ending its capacity to fire rockets into israel. This time is different. The fact that hamas was able to outmanoeuvre and outsmart the most powerful military in this region has now led israel to say, we are going to destroy hamas. Prime minister netanyahu says that hamas has to be treated like Islamic State it has to be obliterated. You and i both know gaza well. Do you think its possible to eliminate hamas . I think it can be taken as a certainty that that same sophistication that they did to carry out these atrocities will also have been spent on preparing for what they knew would be a ferocious israeli response. But as you know, john, the other matter is that, unlike Islamic State, hamas is also a political and social organisation. Its embedded in palestinian society. And even if, privately, some palestinians may not agree with hamas tactics and, certainly, what happened in those horrific first hours of saturday morning, they still share their anger against israeli control over their lives, their resolve to achieve a palestinian state. And from the embers of the destruction that israel is certain to cause will rise another generation with an even more steely resolve to inflict harm on israel next door. And there are many voices now saying that while israel has the right to defend itself, now is the time to think of a long term response. Israel is not of a mind now to think that far, and thats perhaps not surprising. What The Americans and others now are trying to spend their time doing is to try as much as possible and, as importantly, to be seen to do Everything Possible to minimise civilian casualties and civilian suffering. We both saw what happened in iraq in 2003 when The Americans invaded. It is actually extraordinarily difficult not to kill civilians when youre going down narrow streets with Tall Buildings on either side, any one of which could contain perhaps a dozen or more people that want to kill you. Whats not clear is whether or not civilians mayjoin in the fight, those who refuse to be displaced. And as you, john, you know that there is another parallel in mosul when the iraqis, helped by The Americans and others at least in terms of advice and intelligence went into mosul to try to destroy Islamic State. It was Fighting Street To street, house to house, room to room and there, there were a high level of civilian casualties and there was vast destruction. Its hard to see how it can be otherwise in urban warfare, hence the insistence of The Americans to and the United Nations and so many other voices who are standing by israel as to say you must get people to safety. Except in gaza, theres nowhere thats safe and the gazans cant get out. Lyse, several writers in the british and american newspapers and, actually, in the french as well, whom i respect, are talking about the possibility that this could really spread, could start to take in iran and irans Got Friends In China and russia. Whats your feeling as you stand there . Is that a possibility . Lebanon on israels northern border, syria in the north as well, they have other scores to settle with israel and also, they are standard bearers for the palestinian cause. If there are shocking scenes, heartbreaking even more heartbreaking than now coming out of gaza, they will feel honour bound to do something. Now, so much theres so much diplomacy now, so much back channel talking. Even the de facto ruler of saudi arabia, mohammed bin salman, the crown prince, has been talking to the iranian president raisi. Thats the measure of the new rapprochement before this all erupted again. Everyone is talking to everyone else. But the iranians have said, look, if this gets worse, this will be something that we simply Cannot Control and hence, the shuttling of the american envoy, of the europeans, of so many the phone lines are burning to stop this possible contagion. Theres a constant fear that the fighting could spread, that iran, which calls the shots with hamas in gaza, might decide to urge its other client, hezbollah in lebanon, to join in the attack on israel. Lina sinjab is the bbc� s middle east correspondent, speaking from beirut. You know, john, this is a region of the unpredictable. Anything could happen at any minute and its hard to predict what could ignite the moment where things could go out of control. In lebanon, the mood although the street is very angry with whats happening against the Palestinian Civilians in gaza, lots of hezbollah supporters roving the streets, celebrating any attacks over the border but still, there are lots of voices rising and saying, we dont want to be dragged into this. This is a country that is struggling economically. Its failing its own people. Theres still no president. Its in real crisis for the past three, four years. And people still have a close memory to what happened in 2006 with the one month long war because of hezbollah� s sole decision to attack israel. So, no one has interest into this but at the end, its hezbollah� s decision, not the lebanese government or the lebanese peoples decision. A lot of people outside the region, certainly, think that hezbollah is actually gets its instructions from iran. Is that the case . Well, since the start of hezbollah in the � 80s as the shia militant group, its announced that its affiliation and power derived from the Wilayat Al Faqih in iran, which is the religious authority the Shia Religious Authority in iran. And since then, their training, their money, their power, their weapons have all come from iran. Theyve liaised all their strategic and War Launch Decision with the iranians. Theyve been involved in the war in syria because of the iranian decision. And thats whats the worry today, is that even though hezbollah is not acting swiftly and irrationally at the moment, but statements coming from the iranians is are basically saying that another front could open if the situation continues as such in gaza. And what fronts are there for the iranians with the israelis . There is syria and there is lebanon. So, have i got it right . Iran tells hezbollah what to do and hezbollah has the only real political power in lebanon. Is that correct . Practically speaking, the power the political power is divided between different parties in lebanon and different sectarian groups in lebanon. But pragmatically speaking, hezbollah has the upper hand. Hezbollah is a militant group. They have their own weapon, they have their own army, separate from the lebanese army, separate from the lebanese forces, and they have the sole decision that is basically coming from iran, and theyre acting upon that. Now, over the years, ive had quite a bit to do with both hezbollah and hamas and theyre really quite different organisations, arent they, in many ways . I mean, my impression is that hezbollah in particular is much more kind of a nationalist movement, a kind of lebanese nationalist movement, compared with hamas, which is much more islamist and less nationalistic. Would you agree with that . I would argue against that, to be honest, because even with the start of both movements, they started in the � 80s, both allied themselves with islamist ideology hezbollah with the shia in iran and hamas with the Muslim Brotherhood in the region but if you look over the course of the decades, unfortunately, hezbollah did not act in the interest and in favour of lebanon as a nationalist group it served the interest of iran in the region. While hamas, despite many disagreement with any islamist militant movement, but they kept their target as fighting for palestinian rights and for the palestinians in gaza, not serving other countries or regional powers interest in the region, like hezbollah is doing. Tell me a bit about ordinary people in lebanon. How do they react to all of this . They must be very nervous, arent they . Its a both mixture of nervousness, worry about whats going to happen next but also deep anger not only here in lebanon but across the arab world. They look at the international community, at the superpower and how they see them as biased towards the israel the Israeli Attack on gaza. They feel that there is injustice and, you know, double standards in the way the world is treating the palestinian cause, and thats what is fuelling anger in the arab street and, certainly, here in lebanon, where theres a big majority who would support Resistance Movement like the hezbollah and hamas. However, there is a vast majority also in lebanon who has great sympathy with the palestinians. Civilians are very worried about theirfuture here in a country that is already struggling, it has an economic collapse, a government thats failed them and they dont want to be dragged into another war. And what about iran itself . Given that its got problems at home, does it really want to provoke a war with israel . And how has it been presenting the hamas attack to its own people . I asked baran abbasi of bbc persian. The government, since the hamas attack on the first day, its been portraying it as a victory for the palestinians and a huge failure for israelis. But at the same time, the Iranian Foreign minister has been trying to use his influence over regional powers to rally support for hamas and the palestinians, and it shows how much of an influence iran has over these regional powers in syria, in lebanon, in iraq. Iran has these forces that it calls Axis Of Resistance against israel shia militia in syria and iraq, hezbollah in lebanon, and hamas and islamichhad in the palestinian territories. And its been warning that if israel carries on with its attacks and air strikes against gaza and also goes ahead with a planned invasion of gaza strip, then a response from the so called Axis Of Resistance cannot be stopped. Its very, very powerfully influential on hamas. Surely, hamas must have planned this with iran, dont you think . When the iranian supreme leader, a few days before the hamas attack, he made a public speech and he said that any efforts to normalise relations between saudi arabia and israel are doomed to failure and this would never happen. The hamas attack came just a few days after the iranian leader made that speech, and we can see one of the gains that iran has made after the hamas attack has been that they seems that the normalisation of ties between israel and saudi arabia is off the table at least for now. And iran also seems to be able to have stirred up these anti israeli sentiment in the region. Arab powers who have been warming up to israelis now are under pressure from their own people to condemn Israeli Attacks and to distance themselves from the israelis. But they have come out and said that we didnt have any direct role and that the so called Resistance Forces can do that on their own. They dont need our permission, they dont need our help. And the United States has also said that we dont have any evidence, but nobody knows. If we look at the past few years, iran and israel have been involved in a proxy war in the region but iran seems to have been reluctant to respond whenever there has been some attack that has been blamed on the israelis for example, some acts of sabotage against Iranian Nuclear installations inside of iran, Israeli Attacks against iranian positions in syria, the assassination of mohsen fakhrizadeh, who was known as the father of irans so called Nuclear Weapons programme, and they were all blamed on israel. But iran did not respond in kind, at least, so it seems to have been reluctant. And if it gets involved through its proxies or directly, it could trigger a response from america as well and it could prove disastrous for iran. But at the same time, it might come under pressure through its proxies and through other islamic nations to be seen as a power that supports the palestinians, rather than just standing aside and just watching what unfolds in the region. So, i mean, what youre saying is that iran probably would prefer not to get too deeply involved, partly for strategic reasons but also partly because it knows its got problems in its own back yard inside iran itself. Absolutely. I mean, iran has been facing protests against the regime itself for years now. Every now and then, new protests, new rounds of protests erupt. And one of the slogans that iranian protesters have been chanting has been, neither gaza nor lebanon. I will give my life for iran. Clearly saying that they dont want their government to get involved in regional conflicts. They want the government to deal with the issues of the iranian people and it will be very unpopular inside of iran if iran acts. It is dealing with a population that is suffering from huge economic problems, mismanagement and also economic corruption among the iranian officials themselves. It is in huge trouble and it needs the money that the us would provide in terms of the unfreezing of the assets and to have some kind of normal relations with the rest of the world. There are other things going on in the world, though. President putin has gone to beijing to greet his good friend president xi jinping on the tenth anniversary of chinas belt and Road Initiative the massive Investment Project in asia, africa and latin america, which western countries think is chinas way of spreading both its soft and its hard power. Kerry allen is the china media analyst for bbc monitoring. China definitely wants to send a message to the world this week that the belt and road has brought the world closer. Initially, when president xi made this his pet project, he really wanted to stress that it was a way of bringing europe and asia closer together. Now, its encompassing areas like peru in latin america. And especially at a time now when theres war and conflict going on in the world, its a real message that this is countries being brought closer together. And has it done what china wanted in terms of extending chinese power and influence . Absolutely, it has. But there have been editorials this week in independent media saying is it starting to dry up . Because you factor in that countries internationally have been struggling off the back of the pandemic economically and theres the potentialfor them to be in chinas debt by getting involved at this time. It doesnt necessarily seem to make china very popular in the countries where its operating, does it . I mean, a lot of criticisms i remember in peru that ordinary people dont get any work opportunities. Its all done by all the work is done by chinese people, brought in for the specific operation. Yeah, absolutely that, and there have been concerns that some of these Infrastructure Projects have simply stopped. There have been some in africa that theyve been going on for years and the end is not in sight because china does have a situation at home at the moment where, since 2020, theres been a real halt on lending for Infrastructure Projects. What is the situation with the chinese economy, do you think . Is this a blip or is it really the future for china and the way it operates economically . I think chinas got a big struggle to come, and the big struggle is going to come with its shrinking population. And this is really a hangover from the one child policy because, for many decades, china only allowed couples to have one child. And what that means now is that the younger demographic are much smaller and the older demographic are much larger and also retiring, so that means that the Labour Market is shrinking. Chinese unemployment for young people between the ages of 16 and 2a is around 20 . Young people are just frustrated. They dont know what to do. Theyre thinking, well, shall we go overseas . But then, they get this State Media Message that if they go overseas, theyre being seen as traitors at the time where china should be developing, you know, at the rate it was before, but it simply isnt. Do you think there will be more criticism of the government and more opposition to it . One of the major groups, actually, that are voicing their frustrations against the Communist Party are women. And theres a lot of pressure on young women to have more children, to start to reboost chinas population. And, yes, also, youve got this this massive Housing Sector with nobody to move into these houses. There are more women who want to move up the career ladder, going to further education. They feel that theyre getting a strong message that they should be getting married much sooner, they should be having children. They also should be playing a role in looking after their parents and their grandparents. And theyre like, where do we have the time to do this . Theres so much frustration. You get this catchphrase online of � tang ping,� which is � lying flat� it literally means lying flat and it� s the idea that people are getting so much messaging that they� re just exhausted. You do get the feeling that in the west, people are rather rubbing their hands at the thought that the chinese economic miracle is coming to an end. Is it unfair to say that that� s the case, do you think . I don� t think it� s unfair at all, no. There have been a lot of articles in china, saying, look what� s happening at the moment with china� s economy, especially in the Housing Sector. They� re saying this isn� t going to be a lehman style 2008 crash in china� s Housing Sector. They� re saying that china has generally been stable, it� s been developing at a stable rate and, yes, it has had this momentum for a long time. And more than anything, you get this message that the Communist Party will save the day. There� s been a very strong message with the ukraine invasion and also with events in israel that the us is fuelling the fire of overseas events, whereas china, with initiatives like the belt and Road Initiative, is bringing countries closer together. Kerry allen, china media analyst for bbc monitoring. No israeli Prime Minister could have ignored the worst attack on israeli civilians in its history. The most peacefully inclined Israeli Government would have felt obliged to strike back at hamas that� s the logic of the post 1967 situation when israel captured the West Bank And Gaza though, of course, it withdrew from gaza in 2005. Now, though, mr netanyahu has committed israel to destroying hamas root and Branch Something a lot of military observers think will be extraordinarily difficult to do, given the tight knit, overcrowded nature of gaza. A big majority of israelis, according to a new opinion poll organised by the Dialog Center there, think that mr netanyahu is responsible for the intelligence failures which led up to the october 7th attack. Many israelis also blame the Prime Minister for allowing hamas to grow in strength because he wanted to weaken the palestinian authority, the pa, in the west bank, in order to ensure it could never bring about a palestinian state. Thank you forjoining me and the unspun team. Until we meet again, goodbye. Hello. It� s obviously been a lot drier, sunnier across most of the uk after that deluge. Unfortunately, the flooding continues in some parts of the country and these are the rainfall amounts after storm babet. Eastern parts of scotland over 200 millimetres of rain, in excess of 100 across so many other parts of the uk. And in parts of east anglia, even record breaking rainfall for the month of october. Now, tonight, the skies are going to be generally clear across the country and it� s going to turn quite chilly. The winds will fall light. We are in a window of much calmer weather at the moment. You can see Weather Systems and cloud around the uk. But across the country, it� s a case of clear skies. So, calm this evening, with light winds. A bit of mist and murk forming through the early hours. We� ve had a lot of moisture after that rainy weather. And the temperatures early in the morning around freezing, orjust above, in the glens of scotland. For most of us, 5, 6, 7 degrees. The south coast there, in plymouth, around 12 or 13. Rain is forecast in the tip of cornwall, perhaps nudging into parts of pembrokeshire, onlyjust, and into northern ireland. But i think the bulk of the uk, both in the morning and the afternoon, generally bright and sunny. And look at the picture across scotland in the north and east, generally sunny skies on monday. Monday night into tuesday, Weather Fronts approaching the uk once again. We are expecting thicker cloud and outbreaks of rain almost anywhere in the uk. There will be some sunshine too, so it� s not raining all through the day, but these eastern coasts will be fairly cloudy and damp at times, only around 11 degrees. A little bit of sunshine in the south, and one or two showers are possible in the south west. And then i think from wednesday onwards, it really turns very unsettled. Atlantic Weather Systems sweeping in on a strengthening south westerly wind, up to gale force. So here� s the morning, then. Some rain across eastern scotland, but here is that main Weather Front that spreads across ireland, reaches wales, south Western Parts of england and moves northwards through the course of the day. So the last place you will see the rain on wednesday is the north sea coast. Here� s the outlook for the week ahead it is a distinctly unsettled one. Remember, it won� t be raining all the time, but i think a fair amount of rain again is on the way towards the end of the week, but nothing of the level we� ve had in the last few days. Live from london. This is bbc news tonight dialling up the diplomacy President Biden holds numerous calls with western leaders over the israeli gaza crisis. Meanwhile israel� s Prime Minister, benjamin netanyahu, tells soldiers the war against hamas was � do or die� for israel. We are now having a double battle, one here at the lebanon Israel Border to make sure hezbollah back off and another Battle There In The South to ensure that decisive victory that will crush hamas. Israel intensifies its air strikes on gaza and again warns palestinians still in the north of the territory to flee south. The push to find a diplomatic solution to the israel gaza war continues. In the last hour the white house has confirmed that joe biden has again spoken to israeli Prime Minister benjamin netanyahu. The us president has also held calls with western leaders including Prime Minister rishi sunak. Meanwhile france� s president , emmanuel macron, and the dutch Prime Minister, mark rutte are due to visit Israel On Monday and tuesday. Also in the last hour several trucks from a convoy carrying humanitarian aid from egypt have crossed into the gaza strip. The convoy had earlier been detained at the Rafah Crossing for several house so that they could be searched to ensure they were carrying only humanitarian aid. Twenty vehicles loaded with medicines and food passed through on saturday, the first since israel tightened its blockade of the territory more than two weeks ago. The Rafa Crossing is on the egyptian border, and is the only route not bordering israel, which means it� s currently the only potential way to deliver humanitarian aid into gaza. Elsewhere, israel has been continuing to carry out out
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