With proposals to unlock bailout money. Llanos varoufakis says the country will not make any more concessions. He says greece remains willing to find a solution, but creditors need to take greeces proposals seriously. Greece is jeb bush is promising to run a campaign in which he stays true to his beliefs, which have been attacked by conservative spirit in south florida, he announced he is joining the crowded field for the republican president ial nomination. Conservatives are skeptical of his views on immigration and education. Bush alluded to the fact that he is the son of one president and the brother of another. Jeb bush campaigns are not easy, and they are not supposed to be. I know there are a lot of good people running for president. Quite a few, in fact. Not one of us deserves the job by right of resume party family, or family narrative. It is nobodys turn, it is everybodys test and it is wide open, exactly as the contest for president should be. Vonnie real estate mogul donald trump is expected to announce today he is entering the race for republican nomination. Brendan im going to be there, are you kidding me . Breathlessly awaiting. Vonnie al qaeda has confirmed that the second in confirmed al qaeda has confirmed that the second in command has been killed by an american airstrike. Many see this as the biggest strike against the Global Terror Network since the killing of osama bin laden. Bloomberg news is reporting and some has explored a takeover office and some anthem has taken over an office of cigna. The Chicago Black hawks have won the stanley cup for the first time that for the third time in six years. The blackhawks have won the stanley cup for the third time in six years. Tom very much deserved. He had a lot of ice time. Typical ice time for a defenseman is 21 or 23 minutes come out of 60 minutes. He was doing 30, and even 32 minutes. That marginal eight minutes is a huge deal. It reminds me of ray bourque of the Boston Bruins years ago. It is truly a dynasty. Lets do a dynastic data check for you. Equities, bonds, currencies commodities setting up our conversation. The euro, one point 1253 the euro, 1. 1253. 30 on the twoyear yield is stunning on the vix. This is the euro. I have never seen this, Brendan Greeley. I am sure it has occurred, but i have never seen it. This is the here and now. Usually it is red in the back one year out. This is massive volatility in the immediate space of the euro both the weak euro, long euro, and even out here we have elevated, weaker euro. This elevated volatility, this bright red in the onemonth and threemonth betting of what the euro will do is extraordinary. Brendan this right here is usually a grin a nice smile here. What we are seeing is here is what i am looking at. I want to jump in here. We have breaking in germany, their New York Times, the european the euro countries have agreed on a plan b an emergency plan for france capital controls. They are going to wait until the European Finance ministers meet in luxembourg thursday. They have a plan for greece. The Greek Parliament has to approve of it. They have broached the c word. Tom we have hans nichols and john farrow with us. Hans nichols, let me go to you first. Is greece simply running out of money . Is that the catalyst here . Hans that will be laid bare tomorrow when the ecb meets and they decide how much to increase their emergency assistance. I do not want to despair the report because they have good reporting there. The idea that you would have capital controls if you do not have an agreement is almost an obvious one. There will have to be something to do to prevent that capital coming from greece. Can capital controls be effective if you do not have an island . We have talked about iceland, cyprus. It works best on a physical island. Tom a great distortion in the interesting liquidity that we have right now, john farrow is this new volatility now different than the volatilities we have seen before because of the central bank great distortion . John you and i spoke about we are talking about spreads now. What youre seeing is spreads blowout. The difference in yield between germany and spain blowing out to 165 basis points. It was as tight as 88 just three months ago. The uncertainty from greece injected into the bond market in europe and the periphery diverging again, from the core. It is a 20112012 story, but not with the volume turned up. Tom brendan, this goes to the idea that will the politicians listen to john farrows markets. Brendan i want to go to hans. You have been keeping every twist of these events in your personal diary. I am looking at page a2 of the Financial Times. Above the full we have Something Interesting mario draghi saying we are not a political organization. Olivia one shard saying the imf is frustrated. Hans privately, you start hearing that was the last time finance ministers got together 2. 5 weeks ago. That was the last time you got the sense that maybe people were positioning themselves for the post blame game. The most important meetings today are happening in athens when mr. Tsipras meets with other parties. The second party in charge, it looks like they will support him if he goes back to parliament with a bailout package. The greek question to me is will tsipras cut with his own party and try to form a broader greek coalition. That has been my only case for optimism. Tom john farrow what will you watch through your london afternoon today . What is the thing the market litmus paper has of interest . John i think it is spreads, tom. It is not just about a bond market reflation trade. We are talking about credit risk. It is a small divergence, but it is worth keeping an eye on. The first flaw of capital controls is that you do not talk about it. The fact that no one has denied from the credit side of this that there is a plan b, that tells you something. These guys want you to think capital controls are coming because they want to force the issue. Tom john farrow, thank you very much. And hans nichols as well. What hans said about the island characteristics is incredible. Brendan we do not get controlled experiments in economics, and everyone argues from the past there it what happens in iceland is not necessarily indicative of what goes on in other countries. Tom lets bring it back to the United States but also look at the global slowdown, the backdrop for a better u. S. And better europe. It is that struggling global economy. Brent crude skip york is at wood mackenzie. Houston and the balkans do not set the price. I am fascinated by how a global slowdown affects the price of oil. Have you observed it . What we are seeing is that it is a bit of a twoedged sword. You get a slowdown from the economy and oil prices come off, but then you get the Lower Oil Price and it affects the economy. Tom michael levy with his wonderful book on u. S. Oil, the price came down to 40. We have come up to 60. We stabilized. One is that distribution of outcomes that you have to live with. You have been at this long enough. There is not a certain point, is there . Skip we take a view on a price curve, but what does the mean look like . What i think i would say right now is that we were thinking earlier this year that the risk was on the upside, that we were asymmetrical on tom 70 becomes 80. Skip probably the spread is about 50 50 now. Brendan i am looking at your june notes and circled this. Consensus can be a poor predictor of outcome. Your macro guys listed all the things that affect oil in no particular oil. Economic growth, shift in opec strategy, so which of these to you is the biggest known unknown . Skip what is the impact of the cost structure going to do to oil activity over the next 18 to 24 months. They are Getting Better and better. Necessity is becoming the mother of invention. Because of the low price environment, they have to get better and fast. Brendan this is what not this is not what opec plan for. Tom a lot of uncertainty as we move forward. We will talk to skip york later in the hour. Continued focus on the markets. U. S. Futures down 12. Now futures 97. Lets look at our twitter question of the day. It goes back to the memories of cyprus and iceland, our capital controls. We are thrilled with your informed answers that we have seen out in twitter. Our capital controls, the next step for greece. Our capital controls are capital controls the next step for greece . Stay with us, folks. Bloomberg surveillance. Good morning. Tom good morning, everyone. News out at greece. Here are top headlines of vonnie quinn. Vonnie a weather warning is up right now along the 300mile stretch of testis texas coastline. The system is coming in from the gulf of mexico. It is expected to bring in eight inches of rain. The state is still recovering from the wettest month on record in may. In europe, car sales moved at the slowest pace in six months. Concern about unemployment and the greek debt crisis may be holding down demand. The first lady lands in london in plenty of time for tea. Michelle obama and her daughters are starting a European Visit. She will meet with ritesh Prime MinisterDavid Cameron and with british Prime MinisterDavid Cameron and take tea with harry. Tom she has got to hug the baby. Brendan you have a problem with the royals. You do. Tom i think the first lady is there for one issue hug the baby. I need therapy. Brendan shares of Major Airlines have been struggling. Investors are worried that the market might be working. They are losing pricing power. The industry is sitting in paris, crashing its head scratching its head. George ferguson is also in paris , watching the head scratching. Here is what i am wondering. Can Airlines Just not make money unless they act like a cartel . George everybody of course makes more money when they act like a cartel. I think the world is generally always overairlined and over airplaned. It is hard to make money because someone always wants to add more capacity and take market share. Brendan what is the best measure of overcapacity among the major u. S. Carriers . What are we looking for for that measure . George we watch sort of the biggest carriers and see what their responses have been. They are adding capacity is more of gdp, and that is concerning. Delta is 3 or 4 . When you see them adding capacity of of gdp growth, that is when we get concerned, and we are starting to see their fares slip. We measure them by yields, the price they pay by customer per mile that they are flown. We have started to see yields come down for the first time in a number of years. Oil prices gave them a big benefit at the end of last year and it persisted into this year. The way we see it right now, they are approaching the point where they have given back almost all of their gains from lower fuel prices. Now we see how much they really want to take market share. As part of the dynamic to close it out, a lot of Smaller Airlines have been adding capacity a lot. You look at Spirit Airlines they added 30 more capacity year over year. If you are southwest, you have managed the risk of those people taking your market share. Brendan particularly if you are delta, the price of oil affect your ability to purchase fuelefficient plans. Fuelefficient planes. George we have not seen delta come in for an order. Delta flies an older fleet. We have seen Asian Airlines come in and the middle east airlines. We have not seen u. S. Airlines by a lot yet. United was in for some smaller. Delta this might be the right time for delta to be buying airplanes. There may be some deals to be had. Tom what i know is that delta is giving away 60,000 miles on one of their the set American Express cards. All i want to know is, a kid has to get over to europe for the junket this summer. The summer is when the money is made. Is the money going to be made always on the transatlantic scam, or is this your different . George well, look transatlantic market is one of the better markets for the carriers, and it is a bit cartellish. There are three big ventures that control capacity across the atlantic. There is star alliance, there is delta, air france, and there is british air an american. They all control the amount of capacity they put across the atlantic. The atlantic is probably the best opportunity of keeping fares and making a bunch of money. We are starting to see emirates flight flights out of laguardia and kennedy. We see turkish flying it. We are seeing fraying on the edges of that capacity inside the transatlantic market. It will be interesting to watch. Tom why do the kids have to go businessclass . George ferguson, thank you so much, out of the paris air show. Coming up in the next hour, we will discuss why children need to fly Business Class per also, Frank Keating will join us, the former gornor of oklahoma. Brendan whose kids fly businessclass . I will put my kids if i get to fly coach they will. Tom the kids just want to borrow the freaking flyer miles. We will be back to frank in our next hour. Tom good morning, everyone. We mentioned at the top of the show, a sunday meeting. Brendan, it is a thursday meeting, right . Brendan in luxembourg. It happens every month. It was these sunday meeting we were paying attention to, the summit meeting by the heads of state. Tom we look at Market Reaction to what we see in greece and how it pulls over to contagion. Eurodollar, onemonth implied volatility is at the highest level since december, 2011. The key is one month the present tense. Greece jitters in the Foreign Exchange market are being reflected more in the volatility space than in spot at this point. That means that market, one month, three months six months out, is to bet on something unraveling here. Vonnie tomorrow things could change as well depending on the language that comes out. Tom i do not disagree with that. Stanley fischers vicechairman, it is going to be discussed. Brendan s eurodollar waiting on any decision or the right decision . Tom i think you and i would believe that deposits are the immutable are the immovable force. Brendan does the value of the euro rest on the right decision with greece, or the passage of any decision whatsoever . Tom the immediate decision rests on that, but the euro is much more than worrying about greece. Vonnie can i point out in this context that we have not mentioned yet that the European Court of justice has decided that oh nt is legal. Tom Michael Mckee z is the only guy on the planet who vonnie it is the most powerful that mario draghi has used. Tom so mario draghi took a victory there . Vonnie yes. Brendan that is a message to german taxpayers deal with it. Tom we need your perspective on our twitter question today. Are capital controls the next step for greece . Get excited for the 1989 world tour with exclusive behind the scenes footage all of taylor swifts music videos interviews, and more. Xfinity is the destination for all things taylor swift. Tom a busy morning, folks. Bloomberg surveillance. Vonnie quinn, help me out. Fitfit bit is raising prices as they tried to get there initial Public Offering price. Vonnie 30 poor 34 point 5 million shares. They have 85 of the connected market at the moment, facing stiff competition trying to overtake apple. Tom since you got fit bit, did you get your 10,000 shares . Vonnie i count my shares in my head, tom. Tom fit bit doing better than good as they try to get their roadshow done, getting to their initial Public Offering. Thats go to top headlines. Vonnie there is talk that european leaders may hold an emergency summit on greece. Eurozone officials are discussing a possible summit next sunday. The greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis says they will not be any new proposals this week. Reese has rejected demands that it make further greece has rejected demands that it make further cuts or make tech or raise taxes. The rules committee has agreed to delay another trade vote until the end of july, at this has to do with a bill that compensates workers who lose their jobs. General electrics ceo jeff ml told charlie rose that trade deals are vital for america. Jeff immelt in two weeks we will not have any trade bills and our we are the only country on earth that would have those two things happen, and they will both happen in the next two weeks. I would say to people watching the show, guys, we can compete. This is a job creator. People think trade bills are for people like ge. I can globalize without it. Vonnie you can watch that interview with ges jeff immelt on charlie rose on bloomberg tv. The New York Times says Goldman Sachs plans to offer online lending for consumers. Americans can borrow as little as a few thousand dollars. Goldman is hoping to make this move next year. About 175 stores in north america gap stores, will close. For the first time in seven years, Charitable Giving in the u. S. Has surpassed the prerecession record. Americans gave 358 billion to charity last year, 47 billion more than in 2007. Those are your top headlines. Tom lets move on to oil. We are following headlines out of greece. No one saw 100 becoming 40 for oil. Now with stability at 60, there is a reading debate about the price of oil, what it means for american production, the mergers and acquisitions prince skip york and acquisitions. Skip york, you took your phd in virginia, and it does not prepare you for dumb decisions in oil. What is the humility right now as they look at a new exxon mobil what is the humility, what is the fear that everybody has as they try to combine right now . Skip what the concern is, am i paying the right price for the underlying assets . If i look at the reserves, what do i think i can produce those reserves for in the future . That will be a function of what happens to oilfield services. Tom when you buy a company, are you buying skip the technology of horizontal fracking has become so widespread. Vonnie are you surprised there h