News contributor and president of a firm. Im pleased to have him back on the program. Thank you so much. Tell me what we have discovered here and what it might tell us and where it might lead us. Steve the good news is that after 16 months, an airplane that disappeared, and the world could not fathom how a huge aircraft could disappear, we finally have what is a part from the airplane that will tell us yes, it crashed and yes, those people are gone. On the other hand, we say it is probably 4000 miles away from where it hit. It had 16 months to drift around in the indian motion the indian ocean, the current move counterclockwise. From the impact point where it hit those currents go north and then they turn to the west and then they go south. It is just a big circle. Everything x. It is not pushed around. Somehow it may have gotten spit out. It does not tell us where the wreckage is on the bottom of the ocean. It does not tell us where the black biox x is. Box is. Charlie it could be we cannot find where the wreckage is. Steve right. What we are seeing is not going to be helpful in finding the airplane. The focus needs to stay back on the track, the australians have been looking at it for months now. They are working through the winter months. This will bring some closure to the families. Beyond that, it is not going to tell us much that is useful to find out what happened. Charlie can they tell if the debris came from the missing 777 . Steve we are 99 there. There is a part number. It does not identify exactly but it does say it came from a 777. We know it is white. There are no missing 777s in the world. Only one has been missing. The powers of induction, we can say this is probably the piece. One thing i noticed today, if you look at it, the barnacles are all over it. That would suggest it was submerged at some depth. So if you say, why didnt we see that with all of these airplanes after the aircraft went missing . Sometimes when aircraft hit the water, they break into pieces or some float on the surface. Some get waterlogged and they will float below. That is what carbon fiber does as we know with airplanes that have crashed. It would suggest this was floating somewhere just below the surface and got spit out and washed up on to the beach. Charlie the investigation had been ongoing. I know youve had conversations with the people involved in that process. Where is the Investigation Pre the discovery of the debris . Steve i have been down to talk to the australian investigators three times. It is a really impressive crew. They have everything you could ask for. They have help from other countries, blowing is helping the french. They have everything they need. They have a professional crew. I set off the record, let me try to stump you. I was unable to. Im confident in what they are doing. The science. If you remember the last time, there was an arc, the pings. There was a last ping they think when the aircraft lost electrical power. If you have a transistor radio and it runs out of batteries that is the sort of last ping they heard. Somewhere along that arc now they knew how much gas the airplane had at the top of its climb and they know the general track. They have a good idea of where it would have come down. Here is the interesting thing. I have met with the australians. When i first met with them, they were no way is this going to escape us. We are going to find this airplane. The last time i met with them, they were nervous. They had looked at 50,000 kilometers and have expanded out to 120,000 because they still have not found it. They have extended the time they are going to be looking for the airplane to october. It is winter, so the weather is difficult. They are nervous they have not found it. That said, i said between you and me, and off the record, we are having a beer, what do you think . 100 were going to find this. Two end of flight scenarios. The first one is a scenario where you are at altitude. Everybody is unconscious. The airplane flies along. It runs out of gas. It runs out of gas one engine at a time. Youre going to get asymmetric thrust. You would think the autopilot is on. Youre going to get this motion where the airplane is rolling around until the other engine flames out. Like a falling leaf into the water. In that scenario, they have a good idea of where the area of the airplane might be. If everybody was asleep. What is disturbing today, what we see is it is fully intact. If the airplane were going to fly into the water at A Steve Engle at a steep angle only if the airplane hit the water at a slow speed. That opens up the idea if it was deployed, you can see the tip of the flap, it looks like it has been shaved off. Like by hitting the water. So if somebody tried to land the airplane after running out of gas that is a chilling idea to think there was somebody alive in the cockpit flying the airplane after it had run out of gas. Charlie it is a chilling idea because steve everybody believes this is a murderersuicide. Nobody thinks it was mechanical. A lot of people believe it flew out to sea. He pointed it at the south pole. He dumped to the cabin pressure. And they fly off into oblivion. Charlie ah. Steve so if they did not and they tried to land the airplane, there may have been people alive when they hit water. Charlie the people you talk to having ap or in the bar, what do they believe having a beer in the bar, what do they believe . Steve nobody knows enough. The one scenario that gives them nightmares is the second scenario where somebody is conscious. As i said you can backtrack from where you know the airplane was when it was leveled off. You have an idea of where it might have run out of gas. You can draw a circle around that. If somebody was at the controls, they could have flown the airplane in any direction. We are trying to narrow the area we want to look. If they were flying it and heading toward the south pole and decided to go off to the right, now you opened up a really good search area big search area. The airplane can glide about 125 miles after running out of gas. Now after you have gone to the trouble to narrow and focus your search area, in this wild, open ocean if somebody did something at the end that was unpredictable, you have made it difficult. If it was murdersuicide somebody would think, im going to make it hard and do something unpredictable. Charlie were talking about one of the passengers one of the pilots murdering the other. Steve yes. Charlie not somebody coming in. Steve it is possible. There are some convoluted ideas about how that would happen. I dont think so. There are too many things. You remember when the airplane was north they were in that gap. You had to be a pilot to know you were in that radar gap. To type waif points into wa vepionts in, they suggest somebody who is trained. Charlie is this approaching a millionaire heart mystery a melia airheart mystery . Steve i think it is worse. It is a murderer. 200 some odd People Killed by somebody who had some sick which to take them to his own end. It is chilling. There was an act of evil. Multiple acts of evil. Everybody flies. Everybody understands how safe it is. And then you get Something Like this. It shows you. Charlie and your best guess . Steve im optimistic. Im going to give it 70 . I think that we have between now and october. The weather will get better. I think they have the technique, the most sophisticated kinds of technology available, and they are doing what everybody thinks they should be doing. Theyve had this peerreviewed. Every scientist in the world has looked at it and so if we dont find it, i will be shocked. Charlie they shipped the debris to paris because it was a French Island . Steve correct. The french are quite good in accident investigations. I would be worried if they shipped it to malaysia or some country that was not as capable or has demonstrated that capability. Charlie the experience and equipment. Thank you so much. It is a pleasure. We will be right back. Charlie we continue with a look at the death of the taliban leader mullah omar, forced from power in 2000 one and has been considered the ghosts leader of the group. The taliban released a Statement Today saying he died of illness. It apologized for any mistakes he made during his rule. The Afghan Government suggests that he died two years ago in pakistan. Reports of his death have cast uncertainty over the fate of peace talks taking place between taliban and afghanistan. Joining me from washington Matthew Rosenberg of the New York Times and also peter bergen an analyst. Peter, let me begin with this question. Why would they keep it quiet that he died . How long do you think he has been dead . Peter answering the second question first that is unclear. We have the Afghan Government saying he died in 2013. Like a lot of things, that may not be completely correct. There is no one else that can replace him. If you think about the claim, he said he was commander of the faithful. This is not just the head of the taliban and. Im the leader of all muslims everywhere. It is a really invoked religious title that the Prophet Muhammad was the first. There is nobody in the second tier who could really claim that title. We will see some sort of succession struggle probably. Some people have mentioned his son might try to take over. A couple of other contenders. None of them have the stature of mullah omar. Charlie does this mean people have been making decisions in his name with the imprimatur of his reputation and spirituality . Peter i think that is true. What we have seen, the taliban is hardly a unified movement. There are three big parts of it and the likely result of mullah omars departure have confirmed these groups may go their separate ways. Others may split off and be more inclined to align with isis. We have seen that with small taliban groups. Who is the only other commander of the faithful . The head of isis. Charlie matthew, what would you add to that . Matthew one person seems to have been giving orders for the taliban the number two. If he died if mullah omar died in 2013, he spent two years deceiving his colleagues saying i have been talking to our leader. Apparently there was a lot of disaffection with him. He apparently wants to take over. That makes it so much harder to make peace. You will have ice is making inroads. Charlie he has been reaching he is one of the contenders. Is the other his son . Matthew his son is one of them. There are a few others that are around. One had been a prisoner in guantanamo bay. The telegram, it is hard to tell what is going on. This is a group of peasant clerics many of whom have known each other for years. There are not a lot of outsiders in the inner circle. It is difficult for western agencies and the afghan agencies to really get inside the leadership and figure out what is going on. Charlie i asked people after Osama Bin Laden was killed, why not mullah omar . You must know where he is. They would always say we think he is here. We dont really know. And then i would say, would you go get him and they would say of course. Matthew peter yeah, it says a lot about our intelligence agencies, like a trillion dollars since 9 11 it has come as a surprise that mullah omar if these reports are true, died two years ago. He had 10 million on his head. One of the most wanted men in the National Security arena. It goes to what matthew was saying. This is an opaque movement. I went back when was the last time we had a definitive proof of life from mullah omar . The last audiotape was 2005. Since then, he has released written communications once a year. There was very little evidence she was alive even when he was alive. The most basic facts have not been clarified. It gets to this question of, negotiating with this opaque movement, their leader dies what happens next . It will be complicated. On the plus side, if the movement splits, you are able to negotiate with the moderate elements. There is no one figure who can bring them together and do a deal. That person was mullah omar. It is unlikely his successor will make peace negotiations. Charlie do we know he wanted a deal, or do we assume so because they would not have done it if not . Peter i would be cures to see what matthew says. I cant believe they did not start negotiating some sort of deal without him. If you think about it, the negotiations between the taliban and the United States and the taliban and Afghan Government, this long preceded the beau bergdel deal. It did not start just in the last six months. This is a process that has been ongoing many years. I cant believe mullah omar would not have sanctioned it. Matthew it seems he did. If you look at it, the chief negotiator had been his secretary. That was 2010 when it started. The process stalled quickly. Which goes to assume mullah omar was dissatisfied. Mullah omar under his leadership was adamant about not negotiating with cap government. Now they are. Now that he is known to the dead, will they support further negotiations with the Afghan Government . We dont know. There were talks that have been postponed. That raises questions. To whom will they talk. Charlie what about their success on the ground in afghanistan today . Matthew they have done so well, perhaps this has been a blessing for them. They really have made impressive gains and have given the Afghan Military an incredible amount of trouble. They have struggled mightily to keep up with them. That is frightening as well. The movement that was leaderless, people were grousing about his absence, will it fall apart or continue to press forward . That should help to keep people on board, which could be problematic. Charlie peter, i found it interesting in the notes of what we have learned, the family said we apologize for whatever mistakes we made to the state of afghanistan and to the taliban. It is an interesting thing to do. Many people think of things like that. They dont really say them. Peter im not an expert on islamic the elegy as it relates but one thing, when you die, youre supposed to pay off all your debts. You are supposed to make amends to people. As part of the act of dying. Maybe this was their way of doing it. It is a puzzling statement. Mullah omar made a lot of mistakes. He drove afghanistan the world bank stopped measuring afghanistans Economic Indicators because there were none. The population of kabul is about 3 million people. They came in a moment of a honeymoon, and they took away almost every aspect of life most people enjoy. The economy dematerialized. Mullah omar had reasons to be sorry. Charlie and what they did for women and culture. Two examples. Peter they provided something of a model for isis. You think about the destruction of the buddha, they destroyed the major tourist attraction. That is similar to what we have seen isis to in museums in mosul and other sites in iraq and syria. And the women, the same playbook. Isis is more brutal. The taliban and is the most recent model we have seen. Charlie what will happen to stand because of his death what will happen in pakistan because of his death . Matthew an american official said he is not sure the pakistanis knew about this. I said, come on. They know where i am. How are they losing mullah omar . If you make a decision early on you dont want to know, it is easy to lose track of them. The response so far has been to say Nothing Official about it. Seems like they want to move on. Charlie they said the same thing about Osama Bin Laden. We did not know. Matthew the raid was an American Force coming into their country, killing him and leaving, which was a huge problem internally. The challenge to their dominance. This does not challenge them at all. This is some old guy who died in a hospital we dont know about. It was easy to move on and say this is not our problem. Charlie one of the things i remember i think it was the saudis went in person or otherwise to talk to mullah omar and say youve got to get Osama Bin Laden out of here. Peter that is right. Prince turkey went after the embassy attacks in kenya and tanzania. Turkey went and said this is it. Youve got to expel this guy. Mullah omar this was an early indicator about bin laden, mullah omar told them to get lost. Prince turkey wished he never attempted to do it. Mullah omar was standing by bin laden long before 9 11. When 9 11 came on, he lost his country on this point of principle about not handing bin laden over. Charlie he said it would be against my religion not to treat a friend the way i am treating Osama Bin Laden. Peter that is right. He gave an interview and said it would be betraying islam to hand over bin laden. Charlie did we come close to finding him . We might have, we could have. We might have been there . Peter in 2010, i spoke to some officials, military officials in afghanistan. They said we think mullah omar is spending some of his time in karachi. That is where the afghans say he died. It is a big city. 20 million people. Now was that their assessment based on real information or a hunch . It was not clear. No one was surprised by the fact he was in pakistan. Charlie we had always believed that is where he was. Peter yeah. The Senior Leadership of the taliban has been living in pakistan. Charlie so what will this mean in terms of the talibans effort to negotiate or take over afghanistan . Matthew. Matthew sorry. It is hard to say. It depends. If they stayed together, they have been doing well militarily. If they fall apart, it undermines the rest of the country. It does not help afghanistan. You have a bunch of insurgent factions in different places. No central authority. It is chaotic as ever and dangerous for ordinary people whomever. On the point of the americans, i spoke to a fair amount of americans and i was told it was not until tuesday he was convinced omar was probably dead. They were not looking very hard. He may have been a wanted man but when the Afghan Intelligence looked into this they quickly found out not many people wanted to put effort into finding him. It was not like bin laden. There was no special cia team hunting him down. Charlie why was that . Matthew the americans had come to see him as a spiritual leader. They were worried about field commanders. One general compared him to el cid whose corpse was put on a horse after he was killed. Why bother looking for this guy, who is not important enough . Experts can debate whethe