November is the number which remains high in historical comparisons. The consumer is not falling off a cliff and that is important because as we look into 2020, it is the consumer which will be doing the legwork and driving prices. David you are our chief economist. It seems like different data in different directions. The university of Michigan Consumer was high. It seems like it is up and down. Can you get a clear picture of where the u. S. Economy is right now. Tom our view is we are looking at a slow down, but not a meltdown. The key way to look at this is through the lens of the job data. A year ago, even at the beginning of 2019, we were looking at a u. S. Economy creating a solid 200,000 new jobs a month. 2019,e are at the end of the run rate has come down considerably, we are closer to 100,000 than 200,000 now, but that is still enough job creation to keep unemployment at a 50 year low, to keep wage growth at a solid 3 or even higher. With that Unemployment Rate in that pace of wage growth, we are looking at robust consumption quarter2020, the fourth of 2019 and into 2020, we are looking at a slowdown in growth, but recession fears remember those recession fears everyone was talking about a few months ago on the back of the inverted yield curve, those recession fears are looking increasingly overdone. And so manyu economists tell us, it is all about the u. S. Consumer keeping the economy going as strongly as it is put that together with the u. S. China trade development spirit we heard talking on the telephone. Lighthizer was on the telephone. How dependent is the u. S. Consumer on what goes on those telephone conversations . Tom there is clearly a relationship. We areh china and u. S. , talking about continental economies, we are talking about economies where the bulk of the action is domestic, and that is especially true for the United States. Yes, if we had more tariffs and exports weakening, that would certainly be bad news for the u. S. Manufacturing sector. There would be passed through to the jobs data, there would be passed through to consumption. Trade is not the dominant factor moving u. S. Labor markets. I think the more direct relationship right now and the more immediate passthrough is going to be confidence and markets. We have had markets returning to record highs, touching fresh highs as the u. S. Administration from donald trump down stokes hopes of a trade deal. If we get that deal, the markets will stay highend confidence will stay buoyant. If for some reason something breaks down, and that has happened multiple times in the past, that is going to be bad news for markets. We expect the passthrough the confidence and then to the economy. David thank you very much to tom orlik reporting from washington, chief economist of bloomberg economics. Now we go to great farrell in new york for lost stuff. All of these lawsuits going. Don mcgann, the former white House Counsel, and the District Court says you think you can keep them from appearing . You do not have that authority. Unequivocal from the district judge but now that will be appealed. It does not mean don mcgann has to be testify right now. It is another in a series of losses of this kind for the Trump Administration. By following the process, he is able to kick the can down the road and weeks or months will go by. David another proceeding you and guys have been following is the District Attorney in new york pursuing tax records held by the account of President Trump. It is now up in the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court took action. We want you to get your briefs in right away. Greg accelerated briefing on the local case. I think the briefings are scheduled over the next few weeks good it should be much more timely than the normal process with the Supreme Court. David in the meantime we have Rudy Giuliani who wrote a piece yesterday about what was going on in ukraine. It turns out he had a lot going on in ukraine. Greg for a guy who said he has only one client, he does seem to have a lot of irons in the fire. We reported yesterday that he almost got involved in a case against a ukrainian billion aire who is not wellknown except he is believed to have close ties to the new president , the guy who was the subject of a Pressure Campaign about political investigation. Rudy seems to have a busy travel schedule and a lot of people he talks to around the world. Mightveme reports he been representing another wealthy ukrainian, maybe he could help with the problems they were having in the departments of justice. Greg certainly in one case, yes. He had a direct relationship with giuliani that seem to be an attempt to make his case go away. The other, i think giuliani seem to be having talks about the side that was against him. He is playing several different sides of the ukrainian oligarch game. Thank goodness you are keeping this straight. Now it is time to find out how the markets are reacting. Joining us is abigail doolittle. It looks green to me right now. Abigail says it looks green but a snooze fest. We have record highs. It is interesting what tom orlik said in terms of it being a slow down but not a meltdown. It reminds me of the earnings season we are coming out of. Better than feared. People thinking it will get better. That is good for investors to keep the slow melt up going. As long as nothing bad happens, it seems as though we are in a Cruise Control with stocks going higher. I will point out we once again have bonds rallying. Bonds up nine of those 11 days. Some investors are concerned. David that is a question ive had for this entire year. How can the stock market keep going up. Normally we expect an inverse relationship. Not so much. Abigial what were looking at for the first six to nine months of the year is the expectation the fed will lower rates. That happened. Now that we have the fed on pause but yield going lower, it is a conundrum and suggests some investors think there will be more of a slow down where the fed may have to start lowering more and bring an accommodation. Maybe that repo window stays open but it suggests the liquidity you were talking about could gain even more. It is something to keep an ion when you have two Asset Classes diverging. They will come back together at some point. David one has to give. The bond market is right or stock market is right. Abigial most will say the Bond Investors are smarter than the stock investors. It will be interesting to see how that plays out. David thanks a much to abigail doolittle. Now we turn to mark here for first word news. Are sayingsenators they will work fast to punish turkey over testing a Russian Air Defense system. Lawmakers are considering proposals that would sanction the nato ally for the Missile System and for the offensive in northern syria. The sanctions could include an asset freeze, limits on credit, and other restrictions. Thousands of Palestinian Protesters took part in a day of rage across the west bank today. Groups clashed with Israeli Forces to protest the u. S. Announcement it no longer believes israeli settlements violate international law. They burned is really and u. S. Flags as well as posters of President Trump. Demonstrators also held signs saying Benjamin Netanyahu should be sent to prison. He was indicted on corruption charges last week. Former julian president n president says she has put together a United Nations team to examine allegations of police abuse in the country. It looks like there has been certain difficulties if we look waite damages i will until my team will come back and give a full report so we can do what we need to do. Do the reports, but mainly do recommendations. Government has come under criticism for its police tactics. Carrie lam did not make any new concessions in her first comment since prodemocracy forces one in elections in a landslide. Carrie lam did acknowledge the vote reflected unhappiness with the current government and called for peaceful discussions. Priority for us is to properly follow up on actions proposed, including community dialogue. After these five or six months, the hong kong people have realized hong kong could no longer tolerate this chaotic situation. Everybody wants to go back to their normal lives and this requires the concerted efforts of every one of them. Read carrie lams comments rate the plan she outlined more than two months ago, one protesters have already rejected. She also said she has not been for accountable by beijing the outcome of the elections. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. I am mark crumpton. This is bloomberg. David . Tale ofoming up, a president s and kings. A federal District Court draws the distinction and schools former and rules former white House Counsel don mcgann must testify. Our panel takes us through the ramifications. This is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. David this is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. The federal District Court in washington ruled late yesterday that former white House Counsel doug began cannot be excused from testifying simply because the president does not want him to. In the words of the judge, president s are not kings so they do not have subject down by loyalty or blood whose testimony they are bound control. And frome joel payne vermont, e. Obrien murray, a republican strategist and president of accountable new york. , i will start with you. Isnt the judge right . President trump thinks he is a king. I think Bernie Sanders would say what the judge that is correct. I will not agree with Bernie Sanders. The reality is people need to testify, but in the rest of that decision by the judge, he said they do not have to answer all of the questions. Yes, they have to appear, but once there they can invoke various privileges. That is fine. That is what the democracy is about. We go from the legislature down to the Judicial Branch and we go from there and we keep the process moving. That was not even with the current hearings. That was not with the investigations going on for impeachment. That was a ruling made from the Robert Mueller investigation going back. Bolton has his own case going. David exactly. This didlawyer said not necessarily apply to mr. Bolton. Joel, lets turn to you. What is the president s goal . It seems the courts will enforce subpoenas. They always have. Is this a stall tactic . For the goal is to delay as long as you cannot cooperate. I think the president strategy and the white house strategy is to try to invalidate the investigation by starting it of resources good part of that is making sure people like don mcgann and john bolton do not testify. I think the politics get tricky when it comes to what is he trying to hide. If republicans point is this is a witchhunt and there is nothing there, what is the argument for continuing to up you could skate and not allowing people who have evidence like don mcgann from participating in above board investigation . I think the white house and republicans will start to run out of options for how to explain that away. Aboveboard, reasonable investigations would make sense. Right now youre talking about executive privilege. You are also talking about a partisan investigation. A partisan attack on democracy and the presidency. That is flat out true. It is a partisan attack. This is not bipartisan. David almost nothing in washington doesnt feel partisan. Thats talk about what effect this might have on the election in 2020. Lets put aside impeachment. Lets talk about the election. Is this inevitably having the effect that focusing on the 2020 election more on Foreign Policy than otherwise would be the case . Itobrien i do not see coming back to Foreign Policy longterm. Shortterm, that is part of it. At the end of the day, with the economy where it is, we are talking about a pocket collection. When you look at the last election, the unfavorables of both candidates was so much more intense than before that what you will have this time around is the same thing, potentially. Many of the candidates have high unfavorables on the democratic side. As that continues they will come back to pocketbook issues. David joel, do you agree this is not enough to focus more than is typically done on Foreign Policy, and does joe biden agree . He is running ads in iowa that go to the Foreign Policy. Listen to what he says. To be commanderinchief is a sacred duty. The next president will face normas challenges. We will need a leader who can stand with our allies and have them know theres no question about the word of the next president of the United States. David that does not sound like a pocketbook appeal. As the Vice President onto something . Joel that is joe bidens approach and his path to victory. A position of commanderinchief. If he can get the election focused on that, joe biden will have a lot of success in the democratic primary. There have been a lot of other extraneous issues. Medicare for all versus obamacare expansion. Other pocketbook issues we talked about that have control the primary so far. Impeachment has started to impact the primary process, but that does not fully support joe biden. That harms joe biden because a lot of nervous democrats think President Trump will use the ukraine issue and the issues related to hunter biden as a wedge to potentially take votes away from joe biden and to characterize him the same way he did Hillary Clinton three years ago. David if we stop the election right this moment, at this moment who among all of the candidates is benefiting from the impeachment . E. Obrien right now donald trump is unifying his base and taking coverage away from the democrats. If you watch any of the new shows, what have you heard about . Youve only heard about impeachment. Youve heard about what is going on on the back of the district. Youve heard about Michael Bloomberg getting into the race. The oxygen is being sucked out of the race from all of the democrats by bloomberg getting in. With joe biden spending 3 million, you have Michael Bloomberg spending 30 million over the country. Joe biden had 9 million cash on hand. That number will be no way eaten away will be at great joel i would respectfully disagree. Impeachment has been eating away even goodts numbers for republicans show it is a plus 5 or plus 6 issue for democrats. The president has his back up against the wall. I think joe biden is compromised a bit, but overall democrats feel good about how they have administered the hearings and what the public fallout will be. E. Obrien the democrats blew this when jerry nadler was first covering the impeachment hearings and they put on adam schiff. Now you have a democratic congresswoman coming out and saying she may not bode for impeachment. She thinks they have to figure out what to do to let the voters decide. For boat originally passed impeachment with democrats minus two. The question is how many can you bring to the party to get the boat going. The voters are tired of impeachment. Democratic primary voters, i can see the moving beyond that. I think voters are tired of the president doing impeachable things. David lets get the two you together. That would be fun. Thanks to joel payne and e. Obrien murray. A disclaimer, Michael Bloomberg is the founder and majority owner of bloomberg lp, the Parent Company of bloomberg news. Still ahead, Dicks Sporting Goods took a stand on guns and was expected to pay a price, but it looks like the price has been paid and now it is surging back. Does our stock of the hour, next power one of Bloomberg Television and radio. David this is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. Time for the stock of the hour. Dicks Sporting Goods heading for its best day since may of 2014. Showing little negative impact from its retreat on gun sales. Kailey leinz is here with the story. It looks pretty good now. Kailey this is a beat and raise quarter. It is the third time theyve raised their Earnings Guidance for the year. They have now raised . 15. Earningspershare will go as high as three dollars. Earnings came in at . 52 and handily beat analyst expectations, about. 30 eight cents about . 38 on average. The Second Quarter we have seen growth. Dixie is coming up what has been six consecutive quarters of comp sales declines. Youre seeing that rebound continue. Interesting it was driven by higher traffic and more transactions, higher ticket prices. People are not only coming to the stores, they are spending more and seeing growth across major categories. Hardline golf clubs, kayaks, and apparel footwear. David the big turnaround from where they were. We talk to the ceo after last quarter and they took an aggressive stance on guns and expected to get hit they thought they were turnaround. This is what he said. We thought it would cost us about a quarter of a billion in sales, just about what it cost us. We have made changes in our stores an