Of those involved in made several arrests. The largescale protest is also planned for new years day. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. I Mark Crumpton. This is bloomberg. Scarlet i am scarlet fu. Taylor this is Bloomberg Markets the close. Arlet forget call and think oil. President trump set up polymeric trade deal is done, sending crude lower. Cofounder Travis Kalanick steps down. We have all of that and more coming up. Taylor first i want to get a look at the markets. The tech sector, i know i am in San Francisco and you think it is all i can talk about but i continue to be astounded by the tech market. It is a big out performer. Today not a ton of movement but on the year it is the winner. Tesla about 420 a share. In my world, another day, another record for shares of tesla. I know you are also taking a look at the 10 year. We were talking about this global bonds selloff, the risk on action that looks at the 10 year hitting the 2 level, and then the vix, i want to do a look back at where we were a year ago when the vix spiked up to 836 handle. 813 atively muted, low handle, to the 36 now relatively muted, a 13 handle. Scarlet in the meantime, lets check in with our reporters to look into what is going along what is going on across asset classes. Abigial i will pick up where taylor left off. Not a lot happening in technology. Year, year, a banner especially for the chips. Take a look at the Philadelphia Semiconductor index, up about 61 , heading to its best year since 2009. The best performer for the s p up 151 . Md also incredible is the fact that is only its best year since 2016, when it was up 300 . The stock a couple of years ago had been below three dollars. Now it is above 46. We also have macron, lots of chip bottoming and memory pricing. 5g driving all of the shares higher. Can the gains continue. Take a look at this chart. It suggests what we are looking at on the bottom are the shares of amd over the last several decades. We see breaking out of range. On the top, take a look at amd relative to the s p 500. Over the last several years up until 2016 on underperforming the s p 500. Now strong outperformance on the s p 500. All of this suggests a little bit of consolidation in 2020. The gains for amd may continue. Kailey from stocks i want to take it over to gold. Now futures rallying 1 , sitting above 1500 an ounce. Gold getting a nice bid along with bonds after the strong command in the option earlier this morning. It is now at its best day in three weeks and is also lifting precious metal minors. If we look at the philadelphia stock index, the silver and gold extendingis up 3 and a recent rally. The index is now at its highest since august of 2016. You can see both short and longterm Technical Support levels. It is another good day for silver and gold. It is not entirely a coincidence i chose to talk about silver and gold, because it also happens to be one of my favorite christmas songs. Wti facing technical resistance. That is a level we are waiting to see for the past few days. Rallying a little bit today. A low bit of holiday spirit but also ahead of fridays energy report, where he expecting a drop in the storage data. Take a step back and if you look at where we on the production front, you can see we are still looking at record highs for at least 10 years going back. What is interesting is wti is facing resistance because the record production could be capping the effects of the demand for the commodity. Interesting to see what it will be doing for the new year. And thethank you kriti rest of the market team. Joining us for new analysis ahead of the early close in just under an hour is andy cinko from princeton. I want to start with sentiment. If we look back a year ago, equity markets were falling, the vix was spiking, where are we one year later in terms of sentiment . Andy we are at the polar opposite. We are looking at what is perhaps a proxy market. It has just occurred in the last couple of weeks. One of the things we can look at is the aaii bull bear index, that is retail investors. That has gone from zero to 20 in the space of a week. The other is the active manager index. It tracks active investment managers. They run money on behalf of individuals and philanthropies. That has gone from 80 last week to 100 this week. What 100 means it is these investors are now fully invested in stocks. They can get longer and borrow money, they can leverage up and try to go along on stocks. At about 100 , you will see the index often peaks. We think that if the rally continues, you will have trouble in the new year because a lot of money that was sitting on the sidelines has now been put into stocks. It begs the question where is the marginal buyer going to come from . Often times the marginal buyer does not go up so we see stock prices pullback. Especially the beginning of the new year, that often happens. We started from a low level on december 26 and now we have moved all the way up. It would not be surprising to see the stock market shift it into neutral and hang out for a few weeks to see what pans out in terms of earnings. That will be coming up in the middle of january, starting off with the jp morgan, bank of america, etc. We will see how well the Fourth Quarter was. Scarlet that is interesting, the shift from being underinvested to fully investigate. It is something not a lot of people are paying attention to. I know you are also looking at technicals. We talked about the 200 Day Moving Average it. You have some numbers that highlight some interesting moves for the s p 500 when it is so far above its moving average. Andy right, and that is an Interesting Development this week where the s p 500 is trading at 9 premium to its 200 Day Moving Average. This can certainly get more expensive. 10 , 12 , 15 . Those numbers often do not last long and the returns tend not to be very good. On a two weekend a four week basis, the market is flat. See the wind late the win rate is low. The gains are so tiny it is not worth putting on risk rewards. Youre better off sitting on the sidelines and taking chips off the table. One Technical Analyst was looking at the 200 Day Moving Average and saying it is worth it to sell. Scarlet andy cinko, thank you so much. He is bloombergs market live blog editor joining us from princeton. Coming up, shrinking stockpiles. 60e oil is holding above despite a declining forecast. And the boeing shakeup. Why saving the 737 max is the first hurdle the new ceo has to face. Ceo is stepping down from the board of the company he founded. That is coming up. This is bloomberg. Scarlet it has been a good month for oil. Wti is on track for its best month a year after the u. S. And china made a breakthrough on additional trade deal on an initial trade deal. Worries of a global surplus are dampening. Stockpiles likely to be on the decline. Bloombergss managing editor for energy and commodities. Would you call it euphoria . Euphoria feels like a slightly strong word. We have been trading at about . 60 this morning. We are up. We are looking at an 11 increase for december. That is the best month since january. I have to remind you that this time last year, this was a sad story talking about the oil market. You talk about the last quarter of 2018, oil markets fell 38 . We are up 35 for the year, so weve almost made up that bad Fourth Quarter of last year. Remind us again, in the last six months when i spoke to you last we were worried about not only supplied concerns but demand concerns. Is it safe to assume some of the demand concerns have tapered off . Where do we stand in the supply and demand imbalance. Tina opec has responded to that demand quite forcefully, going beyond what most analysts were expecting them to do. That is because they are focused on drawing down stockpiles for the first half of 2020. If you talk to analysts, they are talking about maybe all of 2020 in terms of oil prices being flat. They are looking for some response when you see this drawdown. We had a survey out of that talked about 1. 7 million barrel drop. Apire waiting for figures, and then we get the government figures on friday. The picturel help of how well opec and its allies have doing. Scarlet when it comes to opec, so much depends on saudi arabia. For a while it seems like saudi arabia was doing the heavy lifting on its own. The news this week that the kingdom and kuwait have agreed to resume Oil Production in their neutral zone, what is the significance of that . Can we expect that to last or is it a temporary agreement . Tina they have been talking about this for a while. This was halted in 2014. There have been more and more hints that something is coming. Neitherent government is giving any specifics on when the oil could return to market. We are talking about 500,000 barrels a day. We did hear from chevron, the main international. They think they can get this back up and running within 12 months. If that cuts into the opec supply quotas, then we might have an issue. Right now the agreement only runs through march. It might not have an effect. What it could do is play a role later on. Scarlet thank you so much. Tina davis manages our oil coverage at bloomberg news. Have a great holiday. Tina thanks. Scarlet lets take a close look at keep geopolitical Developments Oil and energy. Thats bring in Georgetown University professor Brenda Schaefer in washington. You say a key theme for 2020 will be challenges to u. S. Utilities, the likes of pg e. Oilda we talk a lot about and natural gas, we do not talk about electricity. We have piled on electricity. A lot of policy goals, climate goals, environmental goals, electricity reasoning everyone in small villages. We are seeing all around the world places where utilities cannot make the demand. The pg e story is a systemic lack of ability to provide electricity to major areas of the population. We saw this two years ago in australia. That will be repeated in more places around the world. Taylor if anyone talks about pg e, it is those of us out here in San Francisco. I wonder if the market is correctly pricing in some of these risks. We take a look at implied oil volatility, it is half of what it was a year ago. It is the market doing a good enough job of looking at the risk ahead for 2020 . Brenda that is a great question. We are ending with oil on the upward trajectory. If you look at the surveys, people are very mixed, the market itself is saying most likely 2020 being down 8 for delivery and the end of the year. I think there are major risk factors. I think oil will take a lot of twists and turns in 2020. On the downward pressure on oil, we have an election year, saudi arabia will do Everything Possible to keep oil low and keep the white house happy. We have a potential recession kicking in. On the supply side, we have major sources of potential instability. Iraq situation is getting hotter and hotter. That could knock off iraqi production. Increasedee this week return of instability in iran itself. December 26 marks the end of the 40 day mourning period for the thousand People Killed in iran during the last round of demonstrations. People inside our planning for massive demonstrations. You are already seeing the police on the streets. This could bring instability into iran and projected around the globe. As a specialist on energy and foreign policy, i am supplies weve not seen any kind of followup to the attack on Saudi Oil Infrastructure in september. That initial attack caused everyone to say we have to price and the geopolitical risk premium once again. There was no followup. It has been quiet. What has saudi arabia done in terms of safeguarding its Oil Infrastructure did not prevent Something Like this, but reducing the odds of Something Like this happening . Brenda they have taken many safeguards and learned many lessons. On the other hand, the attack did reveal how precarious and Vulnerable Energy Infrastructure is around the world. I rans goal in the attack was not only to attack saudi arabia, but get the oil price higher, to show if i ran, if theyre going to be sanctions, if our oil cannot get to market, no ones oil can get to market. The goal is to disrupt oil supplies and get a higher price. The next attack does not have to be on saudi arabia. It can be anywhere where oil is produced. All are still vulnerable. A lot of why iran has not struck again with the policy has to do with what is happening at home. There are battles around the middle east. There allies in lebanon, the allies in iraq and iran itself. ,ver demonstrations last month they took place in 100 cities throughout iran. Taylor have Oil Producers figured out to be profitable at 60 or 65 a barrel . Brenda we are having a new type of oil, a new category of oil, which is nonshale and nonopec. It will be interesting. Some of them have more challenging geology, like in brazil, challenging politics like kiana, norway not having any of those factors. We are seeing a new generation of Oil Production. Thank you to Brenda Schaefer, Georgetown University professor. Coming up, boeings relationship with the faa could be getting worse. The plane maker has failed to disclose internal messages for a second time. Where the company stands. That is next. This is bloomberg. Taylor lets get more insight on boeing and where the Aerospace Giant goes from here following the ouster of ceo dennis muilenburg. Joining us from dallas is bloombergs brendan cave. I took a look at a story of hiding a second set of internal messages relating to the grounding of the 737 max. How much more trouble does this pose to the company . definitely a big risk and a big mystery about what the communication say. This is a batch of messages boeing has just disclosed to the faa. We do not know why they did not disclose them before and we do not know what they say. We may prove they may prove to be troubling and when the messages in october were revealed, the shares sank like a stone. We do not know what reaction could happen this time. Right now it is a big . Mark as thequestion new ceo prepares to take over. Whether he caner wipe the slate clean because David Calhoun has been a boeing director since 2009 so it is not like he was not involved in the decisions related to the 737 max. Brendan he has been intimately involved in the crisis response. He was the director at the time of both crashes and became the chairman in october. He is definitely not coming into this as an outsider. At the same time, resetting that relationship with the faa is one of his most important tasks. Companysbased on the own communications yesterday and other reporting that relationship has become fractured, and this is the regulator that needs to decide if and when the 737 max can fly again. Taylor why not bring in someone from the outside to bring in fresh blood and fresh trust for the company . Brendan it may be the board wanted a figure who is already familiar with the problems and challenges the company is dealing with right now, a person who would not need a lot of time to get up to speed since every grounded37 max stays is another financial problem for boeing. 62,n calhouns age, he is and traditionally boeing executives retire around 65, it with the comes in assignment of getting the max to fly again and then figuring out who will be his successor. Scarlet he has his work cut out for him. The company told us yesterday to suspend parts shipments for months starting with january. This will have ripple effects all over the u. S. Economy. Brendan definite ripple effects. The question is how long it will last. That is 30 days for the suppliers. Boeing itself has said it is shutting down production indefinitely. A lot of questions here. Taylor thank you do bloombergs brendan case joining us from dallas. Coming up, easy does it. 2019 was a year of easing for the fed. One analyst says cutting rates to zero will become the norm in fed policymaking. He joins us next. This is bloomberg. What are you doing back there, junior . Since were obviously lost, im rescheduling my Xfinity Customer Service appointment. Ah, relax. I got this. Which gps are you using anyway . A Little Something called instinct. Been using it for years. Yeah, thats what im afraid of. He knows exactly where were going. My whole body is a compass. Oh boy. The my account app makes todays Xfinity Customer Service simple, easy, awesome. Not my thing. Mark im Mark Crumpton with bloomberg first word news. President trump says he is in a very good position in advance of an impeachment trial in a republicanled senate, and that Mitch Mcconnell can do whatever he wants. President trump says he is in a very goodthe president spoke tos at his resort in palm beach, florida after a teleconference with troops stationed across the globe. The president lashed out and nancy pelosi, as desperate, and said she hits all the people that voted for me, and the republican party. The pentagon is when proposal for a major reduction of American Forces in west africa. The New York Times reports esper maycretary markthe even consider a complete withdrawal from the region. It would be the first phase of global deployment reviews that could reshuffle of troops around the world. Thousands of people descended on the west bank town of bethlehem today, the traditional birthplace of jesus, for the annual Christmas Eve parade. The main square was full of balloons, santa hats, esper and dancing families. Classicbishop, the head cleric in the holy land, shook hands with and waved to