Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Asia 20240713 :

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Asia July 13, 2024

Confirmed case of coronavirus in the United States of unknown origin and after that press conference from donald trump. Not giving up. Meanwhile, we do see resiliency on the mainland. The csi 300 gaining. 1 korean kospi now down after that rising coronavirus count. A surprise Interest Rate hold from the be ok. Hong kong stocks falling lower. Lets look at the fx and rate markets. We see a rebound of the aussie dollar, but this after it fell to the lowest level since 2009. We do see the yen gaining against the u. S. Dollar and we see 10 year treasury yields falling lower. The 10 year yield at 1. 3 after falling below for the first time ever. Back to you. Ponczek, right, sarah thanks for joining us. Travelers torging reconsider trips to south korea as the number of coronavirus cases there nears 1600. President trump assured americans that they face little risk from the epidemic and tapped mike pence to lead the governments response. Trump sought to ease concerns after lawmakers raised questions about preparedness for an outbreak. Because of all weve done, the risk to the American People remains low. We are ready to adapt and do whatever we have to. This one is different. This is a flu. This is like a flu. I think the stock market will recover. We are ready, willing, and able. For more, lets get over to our china correspondent, Tom Mackenzie. What were the Key Takeaways . Tom the naming of Vice President mike pence to lead u. S. Efforts to contain the virus was one of the Key Takeaways. And President Trump saying the risk to the u. S. Public remains low. He compared the virus to the flu. Many Health Experts would take issue with that. In terms of funding, the Trump Administration said on monday they were looking for 2. 5 billion dollars. Theyve been under pressure to increase that. , president k like trump, they are going to do whatever necessary to contain this virus, saying the measures they put in place have led to some significant progress in the u. S. Still very much at odds with experts when it comes to a vaccine. Experts say that is at least a year away. The other area is the persontoperson infections that we are seeing. President trump doesnt think that is inevitable, but after the press conference, we did hear about this suspected Community Spread case, which could prove to be significant in terms of what we are seeing in the u. S. In terms of the rates of infection. Trumpmessages, but the administration trying to improve their communication on this issue. The who saying that there are more new cases outside china than inside for the first time. Is this a turning point . Tom it certainly is in line with what we have been seeing. The rate of infection continues to slow in china. Certainly that is a positive if you assume the official data is accurate. 433 cases out of china announced today. The total number of infections in china is about 78,000. 29 additional deaths in china. It seems like the focus is now shifting away from the peoples republic to other countries, particularly south korea. Almost 1600 in total. Koread officials in south saying they dont have enough beds. There have been 13 deaths. The u. S. Now warning citizens against travel to south korea. That is clearly a country where the level of concern is increasing. About businesses in china . Tom the american chambers of commerce surveyed about 160 of their members in china and the view is that the cost is going to be felt by these companies. Revenues as well if this continues to drag on. 50 said for 2020 there china revenues would fall significantly. A full third of them said they expect business to resume as normal by the end of march. Businessesain pretty confused by the situation here and are bracing themselves for further impact. They are looking at issues of supply chain disruption, getting employees back into factories, and productivity levels back up to full capacity is going to remain a challenge here. China correspondent Tom Mackenzie in beijing. Thanks for joining us. Ceo at us in sydney, the arena management. Dan, thank you for joining us. We are seeing all sorts of action on the markets related to coronavirus. The u. S. 10 year sinking to a record low. Ive seen a couple predictions saying it might hit zero. Certainly possible. We havent seen any limit to the degree to which monetary authorities are willing to curtail their pricing around the world. You are betting less on Economic Activity versus what those authorities will do. From our perspective, it doesnt really change how we price risk. We price it as we see it. Seen materially real material moves in the fixed income markets. Days there have been three with no higher grade Bond Offerings. Can you describe the severity of the impact . I think it is still very light. We are looking and we are saying have thought that perhaps that would trigger some moves. We are just barely giving back some of the gains of 2020. Weve been in a meltdown market for years now. There is just a long way to go down. If anything, we are seeing People Holding on tighter to things they already like and own. We will see if this is something that ultimately leads to a more appropriate pricing of risk. Haslinda speaking of realities, negative rates pretty much hindering appropriate pricing. How far are we from the reality . I think very far. I think what you are seeing is global developed market monetary authorities kind of fighting for who is going to manipulate the market the most. It delays the inevitable pricing of markets that will have to happen. It is a shortterm fix that ultimately creates more longterm problems. It creates a moral hazard where people think someone else is going to bail them out. Haslinda take a look at the credit cycle. Where are we in this credit cycle . For a few years, people have been saying we are late in the cycle. What people are less focused on is the fact that this rising tide has lifted all boats. We spend the majority of our time in areas where the markets have not attributed credit or quality two things that do have intrinsic value. Yes, we are late, but in 1994 we were late and it didnt hit until 1998. These things tend to Linger Longer than you would think. Paul i just want to bring up a chart. It shows the pile of negative yielding debts around the world. We are now just a shade below 40 trillion. Does that look rational to you . I dont know how it can. Ultimately there is a floor here. The expectation theoretically is all risk will be priced off of riskfree. Make riskfree negative and that will pull everything down. The reality is that the banks and other folks who are lending at those effectively negative rates have bills to play. Negative rates dont allow you to pay your bills as a lender. Distortcontinues to appropriate pricing, particularly in things in the credit markets. You are seeing upperlevel credit risk being priced negative and it starts to lead to distortions. Lvmhu look at the bonds issued, it is like going to the government and saying, will you buy this for me . If the monetary authorities are going to buy companies for me, im kind of incentivized to buy everything in sight. Paul dan, stick around. We will get more thoughts from you in a moment. For now lets check in on the first word news. we begin with the bank which kept its rate unchanged. That is amid mounting evidence the economy is stalling. South korea reported more than 330 new infections, bringing its total to just under 1600 cases. U. S. Authorities asking americans to reconsider travel to the country. In new delhi, they have seen the worst violence in almost three decades. Killedt 25 people were over indias new religiousbased citizenship law. Minister called on to send in the army. The controversial law to excludesk citizenship muslims. Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte said his countrys forces can fight insurgents and muslim extremists without any help from the u. S. Military. He was defending his recent decision to terminate the u. S. Security pact and also said he would stick to his pledge to not travel to the United States. He made that decision early in his presidency in response to president Barack Obamas criticism of his deadly antidrug crackdown. The Palestinian Foreign minister has hit out at Donald Trumps peace plan, calling it no more than a surrender plan. Uniono urged the european to impose sanctions on israel if it goes ahead with plans to build 3500 new units on the west bank. He told the press association in geneva it will destroy any hopes for peace. Theres also the reaction by the International Community regarding the release of the trump plan. It the peacecalls plan. It has nothing to do with peace. It is a surrender plan. Su global news, 24 hours a day, onair and at quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im su keenan. This is bloomberg. Haslinda thank you so much for that. Still ahead, the worlds longest equity bull run has come to an end and you can blame politics for that. What is next on malaysia . Credit guru dan still with us. Hes going to show us where he is and isnt in the asiapacific. This is bloomberg. The global credit machine is grinding to a halt. The two point 6 trillion International Bond market where the worlds Biggest Companies raise money has come to a virtual standstill. Still with us is dan, ceo and cio at arena management. We did discuss Bond Offerings in the u. S. You are buying nonperforming loans in Southeast Asia and you are on the lookout for more. Can you tell us about the opportunities you see there . Loansare also issuers of where other sources are not available. In Southeast Asia, we bought npls in indonesia and have continued to look for more. Reale very focused on estate lending in thailand. We are also looking quite a bit in the philippines. In addition to that, we keep our eye on china and india, which are the big names. Over the last four to six months, weve started to get calls that we havent seen in many years. That started before the virus and around the time of the protests. We havent seen credit appropriately priced in china and india. There are tremendous npl volumes there, but npls at the wrong price remain npls. We are not there yet. But we are spending a lot of time focusing on it. Paul you say theres plenty of liquidity out there. Is it getting to the right place . I think it is if you are a seller. You are talking about very large volumes of Corporate Bonds now in china. In india, youve seen some real failures in the finance Company Space that are making people start to look hard at the appropriate pricing of risk. I dont think it is there yet. It has been too easy. We think it has a long way to go down. You talked about opportunities in hong kong since the protests. What exactly and how do you view the risks there . Ive been investing there since the 90s. Certainly, things are evolving. The degree to which you have a recognizable system of Credit Resolution is not quite what it was then. The kind of things we are looking at are basically bridge loans and secured loans on real estate. For a long time, there were a series of local folks powered by easy financing from the banks that occupied that market. Interesting to think perhaps they may not be there as much. We are longterm sanguine on value. As long as theres a lot of subordinated value, we think about the levels at which we are going to land. We wouldnt be pouring ourselves in there now given the uncertainty but we think it is worth spending time on. Haslinda there are views that there could be a property crisis in hong kong. Your take . Everything at a price. There is data. You can look at it. If something was worth a dollar yesterday and that same thing might have been worth . 50 10 years ago and you are lending . 25, you still might be ok. It is all about where does this asset trade. Materially covered by that level . That can be bracing for people who are used to be nine markets like we have had. Paul we have spent recent days traveling around this part of the world. I like what you say about real estate lending. A special situation. That almost sounds like a euphemism. I wonder if you could tell us more. Helpingimes it means folks play offense as well. Certainly theres been a tremendous amount of Property Lending in australia. We havent seen real opportunities in australia yet. I think there will be some real backing up of things. More onalia, we focus structured finance and corporate situations. Back fromhave pulled everything other than Residential Mortgage lending. I think there are going to be more opportunities to pursue. In new zealand there is a housing shortage, but lending to create more houses on which mortgages will be borrowed is not really available. We have been working with a variety of developers, in partnership at times with the new zealand government, to help mitigate that. Haslinda dan, before we let you go, you talked about how you are constantly on the lookout for events that may impact the market. What might that be . Atwe are certainly looking one right now. When we look at the reaction to the virus, at least in the short term. Ultimately, things have been so benign, every reaction to every issue is more Monetary Authority intervention. Ultimately, the thing that will move the market will be the thing that we all dont anticipate. It has just been such a long time, it is hard to think about. But there are plenty of candidates out there. Whether they are material political changes or shocking frauds or all kinds of things, when you have 12 years of uninterrupted lack of price discovery, lots of ugly skeletons can get into the closet. Paul we will leave it there. Thank you so much for joining us. Keep uptodate on the developing coronavirus story by running the come cash the function on your bloomberg. You will find the latest figures from the cdc, headlines from the Bloomberg News room, as well as how specific Companies May be exposed. This is bloomberg. Haslinda welcome back. Lets do a quick check of the latest headlines. The coronavirus outbreak has forced microsoft to reduce its sales forecast. The company says it doesnt expect to meet guidance. The hit will be felt in microsofts pc software and Service Device business. Microsoft projects its Quarterly Sales at over 10. 75 billion dollars in that division. Paul apple ceo tim cook says the virus poses significant issues for the company. Speaking to a shareholders meeting, cook addressed the outbreak in china. Aboutions have resumed at two thirds of apple stores. Production has also restarted for many suppliers, but analysts say the fallout could be felt in the next quarter. Haslinda hna group is being probed by chinese regulators. Sources say the investigation relates to a privately issued million which4 they failed to pay in july. Hna is said to have committed fraud by issuing another bond on the Maturity Date of a defaulted bond. Hna may be seized by the government of hainan province. Paul lets check in on how the chinese equity markets are trading. Really carrying the torch for the region. The shanghai composite up 0. 5 . It appears that coronavirus cases in china may be stabilizing. We will talk about malaysian stock market. This is bloomberg. Theor you are looking at lion city, almost 11 30, the msci among those down, 7 10 of 1 . Equities are more on an optimistic footing. Not good news for the lion city. Take a look at where this thing the dollar is right now, gaining for a third day, where the singh dollar. The 10year yield falling to the lowest since 2013. For now, lets get our first word headlines with su keenan in new york. Su all right, thank you, has. I will start with the latest figures on the coronavirus. A definite number of new deaths and a continued lower trend for the number of new cases in china. Additional infections on wednesday, up slightly from tuesday. There were also 29 deaths, compared to 52 the day before. The total number of cases in 78,500. Ust under President Trump has addressed the nation about the threat to the coronavirus due to the coronavirus, flanked by Health Officials from the centers of Disease Control and prevention. The risk of an outbreak remains low, but he also says the u. S. Should be prepared in case the situation changes. Appropriate measures are already in place if that happens. All thatmp because of we have done, the risk to the American People remains very low. We are ready to adapt and do whatever we have to. This is much different. A flu. This is like the flu. I think the stock market will recover. The economy is very strong. We are ready, willing, and able. Su in saudi arabia, they are halting visits to some of the holiest sites, like mecca and medina, with coronavirus precautions. Entry intoe denied the kingdom. Ofre are no reported cases the coronavirus in saudi arabia. Organization,th meanwhile, says in the last 24 hours, more new coronavirus cases have been reported in countries outside of china or the First Time Since the outbreak again. Signs it is spreading outside of the original epicenter in china. Infections were diagnosed in countries ranging from pakistan to zillow to brazil. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am su keenan. This is bloomberg. Paul all right, thanks very much, su, and for a closer look at markets, we are joined by sarah ponczek. The chin

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