Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Asia 20240713 :

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Asia July 13, 2024

The session. S p futures have been fading, but this after what was the second 4 gain in three days. Safe havens have also been big. Dollaryen, the bestperforming currency. At the same time we see a goal above 1600. 10year treasury yeild continue to hover around 1 . According to that millard have signe says that this is a that the safe haven assets he further weakness ahead. If it was up to him he would say sell into the rallies and there is a large chance maybe we will see a returns debtfree chance of equities from last week. Paul our cross asset reporter in new york, thanks for joining us. China has reported its latest coronavirus numbers, adding 139 new infections and 31 debts. Those figures are inline with the lower trend in recent days. The contrast for the acceleration of an infection rate elsewhere in the world. But get over to our china correspondent Tom Mackenzie in beijing. China is seeing a dramatic drop in infections, but there are doubts about whether we are getting the full picture from the statistics. Tom the doubts around chinas cases, confirmed cases at a natural and local level have never gone away since it was revealed that it was something of a coverup in the early stages of this disease, at least in december. Then you have a change in methodology at least twice in hubei province. Now there is the expert consideration, which is it turns out that a National Level with national reported cases, china is not including asymptomatic cases. And asymptomatic cases someone who has tested positive for the disease but is not showing any signs of symptoms. Level is nottional including those cases. The World Health Organization says only 1 of the cases in china are asymptomatic, but they do say that 70 of those cases will end up showing fullblown symptoms. There is a question as to whether or not it will prove more accurate in the overall count. As you say, what we are looking at in terms of the official fromrs is a site pickup yesterday. Slight pickup from yesterday, 139 compared to 119. If you are taking this data at face value, it does not undermine this trend of infection rates in china. Haslinda tom, the global spread is continuing to be a hinge concern, particularly in the u. S. Tom it is. You now have confirmed deaths. Tragically, a levin confirmed deaths in the United States with what hundred confirmed infections. We heard from the Vice President mike pence saying they would ease restrictions around the use of testing kits. It is almost inevitable that you will see a pickup in infection rates as more tests are done in the United States. On the fiscal front, you saw that agreement to come together with something of an 8 billion package to try to support the economy as the pressure continues to grow on the back of this virus. In italy there are mounting concerns with the rate of infections now being above 3000. You have had additional confirmation of cases in countries like france. The u. K. Is now 85. Most countries in the European Union now have reported additional cases. The europeans, the European Commission saying they are concerned that france and italy may fall into recession as a result of the economic damage. The middle east, the focus is on iran will you have almost 3000 confirmed infections. The on china you have south korea confirming about 5700 cases. The death rate there now is around 35. The president is saying they are in a war in the country against the disease. It is also be noting bringing about to china that there has been a case of a young man, 36 years old, who was discharged, tested negative and then unfortunately died on march 2. That rages questions about whether or not people here in china are being discharged too early. Haslinda our china correspondent Tom Mackenzie in beijing. Thank you for that. Lets stay with china and discuss some of the measures available to china chinese policymakers as they try to stamp the Economic Impact of the virus. We are joined by the head of asian strategy at sev. The question really is, how far can stocks rally with the support from several banks . I think right now, the only that passes the characteristics is china. But as far as the Global Equity concerns, we are only seeing some rally because of the expectation of liquidity provision. Beyond that, i dont think anybody is really expecting that there would be a soon enough recovery in the earnings to justify a continued rally. If the support from Central Banks is not there and you bring it back to fundamentals, where woodstock speed. Less than two weeks ago, the u. S. Equities were reaching record highs. They were not really justified by the earnings. Awould have expected correction much earlier than this. But the point here is, we are at a later end of the economic cycle. This is very typical of late stage cycle. It is a classic case of flow mode. You dont want to be left out, but you also know you are stretching valuations quite high. Paul we heard Tom Mackenzie talking about a couple of countries in europe, france and italy that may be facing recession. When you look around the asiapacific, what are your prime candidates for those countries most at risk for recession . Eugenia clearly, the risk is for south korea. Theorea came into outbreak hit south korea when korea was not at its strongest. It was already limping in 2019. Investments were already down, that experts were recovered simply because of cyclical factors. Even that expectation is already pushed back. But even the expectation of a cyclical recovery in exports, the fact is, now Global Demand may even be an, at least for q1 and q2. That would even dampen the outlook for korea. Paul Global Demand is also weighing pretty heavily on the oil price. Around emerging asia, could there be one of the Silver Linings in all of this, at least oil inputs are going to get cheaper. Eugenia except for malaysia, all economies in asia are not oil enforcers. If you look at the inflation forecast, i would imagine that Oil Prices Continue to be muted, then there would be an Immediate Impact on the inflation numbers. I would be looking at the Immediate Impact on thailand and south korea. Becausequite worrying these are the two economies that really have very weak demand driven inflation sessions. Haslinda will assets necessarily look more attractive if we see governments ramping up fiscal stimulus . Eugenia that is the key, right . We need to see fiscal position becoming more supportive. At this point, at least as far as the Asian Central assets are, they were a bit ahead of the curve, and that is also in relation to the fact that the asian economies immediately saw the risk of their growth outlook. Having said that, not all Central Banks have the same amount of space to cut their Interest Rates. Cutsld be expecting more from indonesia and the philippines, maybe even pushing forward our cuts to as early as march. But as far as india is concerned, maybe not so. Inflation is not so supportive of a cut right now. Haslinda hang tight, we will have more. She will be staying with us. Now a headlines with su keenan in new york. Su we begin with qantas, which is being accused of that may put passengers at risk for the coronavirus. The government body safe work new Software Says the method of that may haves affected passengers is inadequate. Wiping down several trade tables with the same cloth and without any disinfectant. From the u. S. Ults president ial primaries, joe biden was the big winner on super tuesday. Taking 14 states in a defining moment in the race to take on President Trump. Bernie sanders won the prize of california in a contest that may go all the way to the Democratic National convention in july. Michael bloomberg, Majority Shareholder and our companys parent, bloomberg lp, ended his campaign and is endorsing joe biden. Are in indiana for emergency talks in oil outlook and the wider market price. The meeting had saudi arabia and russia split over the prospect of new output restrictions. They are john more than 20 this year with the coronavirus further weakening Global Demand. We have 1. 5 Million Barrels a day while moscow favors current production level. The likelihood of recent extreme bushfires in australia being repeated and increasing by 30 according to a new study. Its latest report says Climate Change is adding to the risk by compounding associated factors, such a severe drought. Fires raised in areas the size of england and killed dozens of people, destroyed thousands of homes and devastated wildlife. Global news 24 hours a day, on 2700powered by more than journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Come, the next 48 hours could have big implications for oil markets as russia and saudi arabia tussle over that output cuts. We get a look inside from the chairman. Just ahead, another fed rate cut this month is not a e thing according to hear what has to be said in the exclusive interview it next. This is bloomberg. Haslinda you are watching Bloomberg Markets asia. Banks around the road grapple with the Economic Impact of the coronavirus, President Trump is calling for more rate cuts, but James Bullard says policy is in the right place. He spoke with our Global Economics and policy editor kathleen in an exclusive interview. James i think that jay powell did a great job in his press conference and recently the details around this. Rising thatviously this coronavirus could be more serious and what we were previously thinking. I think the sentiment, for me anyway, is that we will probably have to move at the march meeting anyway, might as well move that up sooner so that i think that is a basic thinking here. I also think that we got the policy rate to the right place for now, given the information that we have now, and we took out some insurance against the possibility that this will cause a growth slowdown in the u. S. Kathleen that is interesting you say it is at the right level for now. President trump is the only person who is calling for more rate cuts. And wall street economists are saying the fed will move again, 50 basis points at the march meeting. That does not sell mike something you are on board with. James i dont think he should prejudge this meeting. We just had a meeting. We moved the policy rate where we thought it should be. Given the information we have today, it is a very fluid situation and we are keeping track of things. But you have hung around Monetary Policy for a long time. It was unlikely we would have that much different information only get to the march meeting. Depending on how rapidly this is going to move. So we can keep our options open there, but since we kind of pulled that decision forward, im not sure you should put a lot of weight on the march meeting right now. Anyway, we can meet in a meeting anyway, which we just showed that we could do. I just want to put a tremendous amount of focus on this march meeting. There wont be a lot of new information there that we dont have today. Except how the virus is progressing day today. That kind of information will be we will have a little bit more on that. Kathleen that is something the Federal Reserve is tracking closely. James isnt everybody . Globally . Fomc, it wasthe pretty much unanimously supported. Was there any sense of it being a close call as participants got on the phone and voice their opinions. You are not a voter but everybody has a say in this. James i cant talk about the meeting itself, but the vote was unanimous. I think it is pretty clear that they baseline of the u. S. Economy is still quite good, the best markets we have had in 50 years and all the rest associated with that, good consumption, everything is looking good, but the Downside Risks have increased here. That on boarde and get some insurance to make sure we keep the expansion going as we deal with this temporary virus. It will be temporary. We will eventually get through this, but the question is, how severe will it be and how long will it last. Paul that was the st. Louis fed president. Dallas fed the president Robert Kaplan going to join is at 5 30 p. M. New york time, that six 30 a. M. For viewers in hong kong friday. He is a Voting Member of the fomc and did approve tuesdays rate cuts. Let me get you across some breaking news now out of the u. K. Concerning the Budget Airline slide, i think that is how you say it, is entering the administration that usually carries 9. 5 million passengers a year. It was saved last january, but not good enough. Will bes of travelers stranded around airports in europe as a result. It is a major u. K. Budget airline going into the administration. To asiat our focus back now. Some of the measures being used to counter the Economic Impact on the virus. You are getting a victory note eugenia is still with us. We are getting coordinated action around the world, but when you are hammering and everything was like a male, is it actually going to make a difference to this problem . They already said it. The central cut is not likely to give cure to the virus. I think what has really happened is that the cut provided a floor, or a temporary floor to the market. Point, the this Central Banks need to act like the adults that they should be. Are acting like children, they want candy. Once you give them candy they still want more candy. Why cant the central bank, specifically the fed act as the parent and not the overindulgent grandparent giving into the markets every time . It is really just providing liquidity that is not really giving a real fundamental boost to the consumption. Another paul problem, once a crisis passes, how do you take those cuts back again . As far ast the least, Monetary Policy is concerned, Monetary Policy is the first because it is the fastest to move. Whereas the fiscal policy, i understand why some economies, specifically like china would prefer to go the targeted approach. Primarily because it is very difficult to reverse a fiscal spending went to has already been initiated. Like what can happen. You cannot really delay a project once it has already broken ground. Just because activity has already started to pick up. Is easier tocy reverse but it is not that easy to reverse. Haslinda when will rates normalize again . Below 1 for the first time in 150 years, having about 1 , can we expect rates to normalize anytime soon, and does it dipped again . It would look like it has more room to go down, but we have already seen that you , atld not expect too much least as far as the march 18 policy is concerned. Why cant you wait two weeks for something that you and you are not telling the public . Case, two weeks is really a long time when youre talking about the virus. Two weeks ago the u. S. Equities were at a record high and then when they realized that the virus could actually go out of that then they realized their earnings are actually at risk. Haslinda asian markets in particular are more contingent on chinas recovery path. At one time, not too long ago, we were talking about expectations recovering in a v shape, more likely a u. Our asian markets more contingent on china . Eugenia yes. The beta or sensitivity of the economy is higher. Impactfirst, the real was the system and then it was the supply chain. But even the economies that are more domestic demand like the philippines, the fact is they need to delay some of their investments because the imports from china are not coming in a scheduled. So even those economies are going to be hit by the slowdown. Muchnda thank you so today. 20 more to come. This is bloomberg. Plenty more to come. This is bloomberg. Haslinda lets do a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. Airbus is considering cutting back reduction of the after the biggest customers of the virus may force it to deferred deliveries. It accounts for about a quarter of eight 330 orders. It will postpone taking delivery of new models. They are viewing current output levels as they make a decision later this week. The Coronavirus Impact on the auto sector seen cutting more than 1. 5 billion of profit of japans top five manufacturers. Of all sachs says sales automakers may shrink by 3. 5 this year, down more than the previous forecast of 3 10 of 1 . Is expected china to hurt supply chains for toyota, nissan and honda among others. Concern about the coronavirus is putting in and to some of the biggest business meetings of the year. Think 2020is ibms conference that was set to draw 30,000 delegates to San Francisco in may. Ibm said they will stream video and other content. It will restrict travel requirements, including the suspension for new meetings. Onl lets get a quick check how Chinese Markets are trading at of the lunch break in shanghai. All pointing higher, as are most markets across the region. Next we will look at opecs coronavirus dilemma. This is bloomberg. When you move homes, you move more than just yourself. Thats why xfinity has made taking your internet and tv with you a breeze. Really . Yup. You can transfer your Service Online in about a minute. You can do that . Yeah. 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