Little bit today. Crude oil heading toward 13 but we are really in this range between 11 and 13. Lets get a deeper dive into the markets. Taylor riggs is standing by. Taylor lets take a look across asset, yields are falling along with the equity markets. The 10 is down to 61 basis points. The 2year on down to 20 basis points or so. That means high grade is rising, but highyield also selling off. Similar things happening in energy. You are getting a rise in Energy Stocks even though crude has not been rising as much. Still hovering under 13 a barrel. At some ofake a look the dynamics going on within the energy market. The drop earlier was in the crude june futures, rolling over to july. Global told their clients to go out of june and go later. Uso also rolled out their positions from june futures into later contracts. What happened in may, they are trying to avoid in june. Economic data this morning as well, which was really off the cliff. Always anticipating that kind of data particularly for this quarter. That also had an impact on equities. Not so much for homebuilders. Take a look at these stocks. D. R. Horton up 12 . This as the case schiller home price index was better than forecast, although still pretty anemic growth. 14 , applyingn up for more liquidity. That is a theme today, stocks admitting they need some extra help. Day of the first fomc meeting where officials gather to discuss the path forward. The Central Banks will be released tomorrow. The former chair of the Federal ReserveAlan Greenspan is with us now on Bloomberg Radio and television. Lets listen in with david westin. Joining us now for a very special chat with the former chair of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan. Thank you for joining us. The fomc is meeting today and tomorrow. One of the things all of us want to know, and we know we value your view on, how long and deep is this economic crisis we find ourselves in . What do you think . Alan i think it will you longer than we expect because the defining characteristic of the next century will be an an inexorable aging of the population. The population of the industrial that countries of the world are aged 65 and older. The last century, a vast majority of the population worked until they died. Retirement is a rare outcome. As a consequence of this, u. S. Retirement benefits, especially Social Security and health care, have escalated significantly and are projected to expand materially further in the decades ahead. That is an issue which i can explain in some considerable detail for you. But i think it will be a dominant force in slowing down the rate of growth. Stageunclear at this whether we will be looking at the type of pattern that sweden looked at for a number of years, and cured, or we will be in trouble. David what is the answer to that . If anything, this pandemic will push the United States and other countries to greater social support, greater social benefit programs, because so many are being hurt so badly. Alan i absolutely agree with that. The bottom line is that retirement benefits, Social Security, medicare, and the like, are going to be major forces in the years ahead, and in government programs. As the Federal Reserve meets today, should they be more concerned about deflation than inflation . As you know, we have a oil futures contracts trading into the negative numbers. Commodities are weak around the world. Is there a real risk of deflation right now in the United States and globally . Alan i will answer it generically. Since i left office, i have been very scrupulous not to comment specifically on what my. Uccessors were doing but as a general question, there is no doubt the problems , the difficulties of recent weeks are having a profound effect. You can judge them as well as anybody. Vonnie Glenn Hubbard david Glenn Hubbard, who you know well, has warned about demand destruction. Do we face the prospect of de pressure, not just recession . Presumes that we do not take the type of actions , and resolve the problems, which are very similar to the ones that we are confronted with. What that would fundamentally solving the whole question of how you go from this socialist society, which sweden then china collapsed in the revisions,made major the time that would make our medicare and Social Security problems get resolved, but we are nowhere near that as of yet. There are a lot of issues that im not sure we want to get into. But the problems are out there. I hope we come to grips with them sooner rather than later. Innie i wonder david wonder whether we have not taken a step toward a socialized economy. Starting with 2008, 2009, but certainly now, did extent by which the federal government is intervening into the regular economy regularly. And not just the central bank but others have grown their balances, Investment Decisions even depend on what we think the well asnt will do, as what the economy is doing, and the consumer. Process ofnvestment all of these companies with whom i dealt could not get around that one government is doing is having a Significant Impact on the financial world. The financial world, the bottom line is profits. We are moving in directions which are quite surprising, and obviously, the virus has made this a more difficult problem to deal with. How we come out of this will very much on fundamental issues with respect to government. I amems ironic that saying, we ought to be looking at sweden, which used to be the quintessential socialist society as a measure by which we ought to direct ourselves to get our system more in balance. I speak to a lot of people, some listen. Vonnie we are listening david we are listening and we want to hear what you have to say. Can gives opportunities as well as real perils. If we were to, forgive the expression, use this crisis, two move the economy, government in a direction that would be more constructive, how would we do that . Alan the first thing is to datanize that what the ,hows is, for the last 50 years social benefits have been crowding out most domestic savings in the u. S. , dollar for dollar. That has meant that domestic savings is being reduced. That is a major source of gross domestic investment. Then we are dealing with a situation where productivity growth slows down, which is precisely whats been happening. We are now at a 1 annual rate productivity growth. That is intolerably low. Until and unless we can turn it up and the only way we can do that is by structuring our investment toward capital goods we are not doing that in an effective manner at the moment. David there are some who are very concerned about what is going on in the government right now, moral hazard. In the effort to bailout companies, we are bailing out companies that have been profligate, not just those who have been prudent. Is this a time to be concerned about moral hazard, or should we put that to one side and deal with the much bigger hazard of the coronavirus . Alan i think you put it aside. Butree, it is an issue, there are lots of issues which we can deal with without really being concerned about it. David how do you assess the situation with unemployment . Only 6ly, we have lost million jobs in five weeks, some suggest it could get worse. To levelst could get around the great depression. What do you project in terms of unemployment through the rest of the year . Is, the problem basically we are obviously looking at a terrible First Quarter. Second quarter is pretty awful. But if this virus works through the way we expect, we probably have a strong third quarter. My concern is the Fourth Quarter and beyond. It is the years ahead where changes have got to be made. Concerned about many of the issues that confront us today, although i say, importantly, the virus issue has got to be resolved in a rational, sensible matter. To socialor example, security benefits, the way they are paid, so we dont run into the crisis that reagan ran into. Is the one thing that you would recommend, if you are called up today by whoever is in charge, asking what should we do . Alan first thing i would not do is pick up the telephone. Vonnie [laughter] david [laughter] you would not take the call . Alan i speak to my clients to give them my views, but i try to keep my nose out of federal affairs. David probably a wise decision to take. Really good to hear from you today, dr. Alan greenspan. The former chair of the Federal Reserve. Just before the decision tomorrow of the fomc. Our thanks to david westin and former fed chair Alan Greenspan. A couple of headlines in the last two minutes, President Trump orders Meat Processing plants to remain open, according to a source. The president will use the defense production act to designate meat processors as essential and critical. Hillary also word clinton will endorse joe biden this afternoon. The New York Times reported that Hillary Clinton will endorse joe biden this afternoon. This is bloomberg. Vonnie this is Bloomberg Markets. Im vonnie quinn. The fomc beginning their meeting today ahead of the Rate Decision tomorrow and the statement which investors will be awaiting. Spoke to Alan Greenspan about his view on the coronavirus crisis. He is concerned about demographics these days. Joining us for a look ahead to the fomc decision day, a wrapup of where we are right now in the economy, we have ed yardeni. Numbers this week, they will not be pretty. How swift and how long is this downturn . Im in the consensus view that we will have a really awful drop of gdp in the Second Quarter and probably third quarter, and then should have a recovery in the Fourth Quarter. I think it will look like a v arithmetically, but the stronger the Fourth Quarter will be will mostly be a consequence of how bad it will be in the second and third quarters. It will look like a v but more like a u in the longer term. After shots will be occurring as a result of this virus. Vonnie do you mean things like layoffs . We are seeing companies withdraw their guidance for the year. They dont have any visibility, promising to keep jobs, but you have to wonder if down the road, things change. Is the world war against the virus, and there are three fronts, health, economic, and financial fronts. Everything depends on the health front. If this thing comes back with a second wave and forces us to take drastic actions again, that would obviously be bad for the economy and employment. A lot of uncertainty about how this plays out. The current assumption in the market, which i agree with, is that this crisis is a matter of weeks, not months or years, and we will get through it. One way or another, we will learn to live with it. A good example is taiwan. 20 million people, six deaths, according to sources. They have done that by wearing masks, taking temperatures, being smart about it. They are doing well. As long as we open up our economy in a smart fashion, i think the outlook for earnings will improve next year from this year, and the stock market is clearly willing to look past the median here and look to recovery next year. Vonnie stoically optimistic view. You are holding that as long as we open the country smartly. What do you mean by that . Piecemeal, Critical Infrastructure first . This will be in the hands of policymakers, mostly governors, who will be relying on people in labor, finance to give them guidance on how things do to be opened up. The word is gradual. It will be a gradual opening up of businesses where people have to physically show up for work and dont have the option that others have of working remotely. We are going to see people who are working remotely may so. Inue to do they will not be rushing to get on trains and subways. Up, thehe economy opens improves, maybe after consolidating its gains of late, over the next few months, the market may resume its climb 19 hight the february and maybe even go higher. Vonnie we reached your s p target for the year, so you have to think about it going summerhouse for the rest of the year. Ed well, sideways sounds pretty good to me. I was thinking, on march 25, i concluded the market probably made a bear market low on march 23, which is remarkable, if im right. Not that it is remarkable i might, but only that we had 33dayy there market a bear market. That was right after the fed acted. They bombed the economy with a tremendous amount of cash. A trillion here, trillion there, and before you know it we have unprecedented monetary stimulus. I think that has made the low. What we need to do is consolidate the gains we had. I was looking for 2900 by years end, but we got there today on an intraday basis. Vonnie trillions of dollars, more aid for the muni market now, the fed buying junk bonds. Will we pay for this eventually somehow . No asset left behind. The fed has made it clear they are not just the lender of last resort, they are the bank of last resort. When you combine the kind of firepower the fed has gotten from the treasury in terms of committing capital to lend out, the to the tune of 4 trillion, plus qe forever, you are talking about 10 trillion easily. As you saw the congressional estimate recently, the deficit will be close to 4 trillion. I dont have the answer. Down the road, there could be a problem. Vonnie always a pleasure, ed yardeni. This is bloomberg. Vonnie President Trump will order a u. S. Meat plans to stay open amid the pandemic, according to sources. He would use the National Defense act to do so. Stay tuned. David rubenstein will be speaking with a cargo ceo coming up at 4 30. This is bloomberg. Staying connected your way is easier than ever. Youre just a tap away from personalized support on xfinity. Com. Get faster internet speeds with a click. Order xfi pods to your home in a snap. Or change your Xfinity Services with just a touch. All in one place. Youre only seconds away from all of that on xfinity. Com. Faster than a call. Easy as a tap. Now thats simple, easy, awesome. Mark im Mark Crumpton with bloomberg first word news. Russian president Vladimir Putin has ordered people to remain under lockdown through may 11, after the total number of coronavirus cases in the country surpassed chinas. ,peaking video Video Conference president putin said that because not yet been reached. He asked the government to prefer a plan for gradually lifting the virus restrictions starting as early as may 12. France will begin raising its strict lockdown. The country says shots will reopen beginning may 11. The government says restaurants may be allowed to reopen in june. Public events of more than 5000 people are outlawed until september. Working from home is encouraged for at least three more weeks. Americans are worried more about their finances than their health , according to a new study by metlife. The insurer surveyed more than 2300 people earlier this month and found money was the top concern for 52 of fulltime american workers. 44 said they were most anxious about their physical and mental health. Three quarters of those surveyed said their job status had been affected or was expected to be affected by the pandemic. Global news 24 hours a day, onair, and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Im Mark Crumpton. This is bloomberg. Amanda im amanda lang in toronto. Welcome to Bloomberg Markets. Shery im shery ahn in new york. We are joined by our bloomberg and Bnn Bloomberg audiences. Lets get you started with a quick check on the markets. We are seeing the s p 500 holding pretty flat. Industrials leading the gains but health care and communication stocks weighing on the index. A big week of earnings and central bank decisions, the nasdaq composite currently down. 6 . Big tech weighing on the nasdaq. The dollar Index Holding slightly down,. 2 , being weighed by riskier assets. We continue to see easing of restrictions around the world on this coronavirus pandemic. Wti it comes to oil, gaining some ground, approaching 13 a barrel. This after a very volatile session. We continue to see the aftershocks of the biggest oil etf saying it will sell out of it in june of futures position. The big question is whether june futures will end up being like may futures. Analysts wondering if this could go below zero as well. Amanda still causing a lot of havoc. As you noted, we are getting a lot of earnings this week. Big tex, which has led the market higher, beginning to report. I want to show you whats happened to the earnings expectations. One reason you may see a downdraft here. 19 reduction in the outlook, blended forward eps, since the beginning of march. We will begin, hearing from some big names, including after the bell today, alphabet. What will it say about digital ad sales. . That is closely watched. Others will follow suit like facebook. Taylor riggs is watching this and will be on the ball after the bell. In terms of expectations in the market, there are some jitters about what alphabet will say. Taylor underperforming the broader market. It we are expecting a week Advertising Market and a glimpse from google, our first really into how weak this is, how much clients are pulling back on the ad spending. Take a look at this chart in my terminal. Google gets 82 of their revenue from advertising. 38 billion in the last quarter alone. And analyst says they are looking at Revenue Growth to decelerate from the high teens in the last quarter to just 1 or so increase in the <