Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Whatd You Miss 20240713 : vimarsan

BLOOMBERG Whatd You Miss July 13, 2024

Strongly in the green on the day. Small caps up more than 3 on the day. The nasdaq composite yesterday erased all its losses for the year. Now up about 1. 7 on the year. Gainers today, energy, industrial, and materials. Basis, energy, tech, and a couple discretionary names here. We saw a pretty dramatic move on the short end of the u. S. Treasury curve. Traders still pricing in the prospect that we could hit negative rates in the u. S. It will be interesting to see if that materializes and what that would mean. Scarlet and just a followup on what you were pointing out with regards to the different sector performers, energy, the best performer for the week. Week for the major u. S. Indexes. And the russell 2000 also doing better than good compared to its largecap peers. Lets bring back gabriella santos. One thing we should mention with energy stocks, weve seen oil prices now put together two weeks of gains. We havent seen that since february. Do you think weve seen the worst in oil, and if so, what does that mean for other Asset Classes . Think, for oil, that is a month where we start to see the production cuts come into effect. And also when we are slowly beginning to reopen economies around the world. It does make sense to see oil prices rebound. With that said, we are correct in our view that the reopening is going to be slow, including from the consumers like oil. There is a bit of a feeling for oil prices. We find it hard to imagine brent prices closing of 35 a barrel. Is still a context where we want to be underweight. We want to be careful with the energy sector. Especially in credit. Alreadywhere we have started to see defaults in the energy space within highyield. There is one silver lining, this idea of very low oil prices, which is that inflation is going to stay low. Romaine i want to go back for a second. You mentioned highyield and the credit space in general. Are there any signs we should be looking for that would maybe give us a little bit of insight into potentially how permanent this rally can be . I think it is really interesting to see what happened in credit markets. April, we had about 23 billion in default within the highyield space. If we look at where that was concentrated, energy and retail, and within the investmentgrade space, that was the month where we had the biggest amount of downgrades ever. Were in these sectors of energy and retail and leisure and hospitality. I think we are seeing stress in those sectors. Over theng to remain next six months. Weis nice to see a day where have those sectors rallying. We just asked ourselves whether that is sustainable for much longer. Go to the want to Global Market for a moment. How do you want to be positioned in asia, europe, and e. M. . Stock is an extremely defensive market, and an equity market that has representation in sectors that are winning here. But one thing that weve been highlighting is that it is not just the u. S. That we should focus on. Even if you have a more cyclical time horizon, it is also emerging asia. Where welso an index have high representation of players thatuge are also gaining in this lastly, i dont think it is a foregone conclusion that the United States comes out of this reopening phase the best. A lot ofhere are arguments for countries in asia being much better prepared to have a more sustainable reopening phase. Markets, the u. S. Is still a preferred market, but so is emerging asia. Santos, thankella you so much for your time. Have a great weekend. That does it for the closing bell. Whatd you miss . Is up next, where we look at the covid19 impact on real estate. Im trying to convince romain to move to the suburbs. This is bloomberg. Romaine broadcasting live from new york, i am Romaine Bostick alongside scarlet fu. This is whatd you miss . Aarlet lets get you snapshot of u. S. Stocks. We had gains in all three major indexes. Everything closed at session highs. The backdrop for all this was some devastating jobs numbers. The u. S. Unemployment rate tripled in april to 14. 7 . The harshest downturn for American Workers in history. They actually understate how bad the situation is. Scarlet i think we might be some of this looks to be temporary layoffs. Maybe about three quarters of it. If you look at who is getting hit the hardest, it is the people that can least afford it. Reduction in losses in participation among minorities was particularly large. The job before us now is to make them so. Romaine that was a snapshot of some of the voices weve heard today. We talk a lot about the market moves. So many millions of people now are without a job. The question is, when will those people get back on the payroll . Frances donald is chief economist and head of microstrategy, joining us now. When you look at the numbers that we got this morning, and you look at the data over the past few weeks, showing the absolute devastation in this market, what do the numbers tell us about the potential for most of these jobs to be recouped at some point in the near future . Is the most important question, the 70 of those who said they were unemployed for temporary reasons going to turn out to be temporarily laid off, and how quickly could they get rehired . We have to watch nontraditional data points. There is a little bit of a silver lining. It looks like most of the economy, the worst of it probably ended around mid april. That doesnt mean the economy is going to start reaccelerating now. What i am concerned about is that we are heading into a period where the duration of unemployment has been longer and longer. Has an almost circular development. You stop spending as much and you see further reduction in activity. All those whoire say they were temporarily laid off, will those individuals go back to spending . That is the bigger question. What you described is a vicious cycle. One thing that bothers me is that a lot of the pain is not spread evenly. Shock isr today, the really aimed at the working class. Dramatically lower impact on College Graduates who are able to work from home. Women were hit harder than men. Black and hispanic workers hit harder than white workers. What does that mean for the recovery ahead . It took a while for minority workers to see employment. They were the first to see some of the pain as the economy soured. I think you are highlighting what is in some ways the most shocking, just how uneven they are. How they are targeting the most vulnerable workers. This is unlike every major recession weve seen. Typically recessions are caused by manufacturing. This is women. If you look at a chart of unemployment rates between men and women going back to the waitingthis time, it is who have the higher unemployment rate. This means that our policy responses have to be different. We have to make sure that those who have been laid off are not being given the same treatment they have been in past recessions. Childcare is one of the most important pillars to restart the economy. This is an entirely different type of recession. It cant be treated the same way as 2008 or other historical recessions. There is a lot of folks at bloomberg who have crunched the numbers. Theyve put a lot of great charts. When you break it down by industry, some of the percentage declines were pretty staggering. In transportation. 58 drop in clothing and retail companies. 52 drop in personal services. When you look at those industries, it seems like some of those are industries that may not step back. Some of these industries may be the last ones to fully reopen. Is it possible that we may have to grapple with the idea that some of those jobs may be gone . That is what we have to contend with. That is going to be difficult not just for those who lost their jobs, but for the stock market. Critically, we need to recognize it is going to be incredibly uneven by sector. We are going to reopen Services Based economies and whether or not those come back online depends on peoples ability and willingness to use the economy. If households arent feeling safe enough to go out, or maybe they have had a hit to their income, they arent going to use the economy when it is back online. We are watching how individuals tell us how likely they are to use the economy. People want to see the evolution virus before they head back out. Focus on the duration of unemployment. Virus before they head back out. Focus on the duration of unemployment. The longer people are unemployed, the more frustrated they get, the more policy support they need. When a lot of the extra income is weighing out, we are going to see a lot of people get very nervous. Before covid19, we were looking at the jobs report as the average Hourly Earnings report. What we did see in april were wage gains. 7. 9 jump yearoveryear. Amazon and walmart did raise wages for some workers. What is your read on whether this is temporary or sustainable . This average Hourly Earnings number is one of these data points that essentially loses its meaning. Let go of the lower income earners within our economy, so the average hourly is looking better on the surface. Person, they are not getting 4. 7 more. This is just a reflection of the fact that that lower income opponent has dropped out. The income inequality that already existed, the covid19 shock really disproportionately hurting our lower income workers. In this case, it creates a little bit of a problem and makes the data points less readable. Romaine we only have a little bit of time left. Im curious how you take todays data and read through to the next reads on things like gdp and other markers for this economy. What are you looking at . Our focus is on the Economic Data points that are going to drive assets going forward. A whatt seem like is going to drive this market forward. These data points are consistent with a doubledigit decline in gdp. It is incredibly reasonable. On theket is focused risk of a second wave of covid. Rate see that unemployment moving higher . Q4focus is where are we in and q1 of next year. We appreciate your time. Global chief economist and head of microstrategy. What do we have coming up here . Lets take a look. I think scarlet joe weisenthal. Weve got joe coming up. This is bloomberg. Romaine welcome back. Im Romaine Bostick alongside scarlet fu. Lets get you a quick check of the latest headlines. We are going to start with apple. Apple is going to start reopening some u. S. Retail stores next week. Today it issaying going to implement safety procedures including temperature checks, social distancing, and face coverings for customers and employees. Apple recently reopened locations in south korea, austria, and australia. J. P. Morgan chase has increased its bet on singlefamily homes. The parties expanded the joint million. O 625 uplow is prepared to fire business now that americans are spending more time than ever at home. Robust search activity shows that house hunters are undeterred by the economic uncertainty. And that is your business flash update. This is kind of interesting. Zillow has started to get this home flipping business off the ground. There was a lot of investor backlash. Theres a lot of questions as to how profitable it could be. Now it looks like they are going to give this ago. Virtuallyefinitely you can look at Different Properties online. Still trying to convince you of the benefits of moving out of the city and into the suburbs. Weisenthaltime, joe left the city. Hes going out to austin texas. He joins us now. Youve been looking at the jobs data. It was devastating as expected. Joe exactly right. That is one of the extraordinary things investors have been able to overlook. Out,hing that really stood weve been waiting years for wage growth. We got this extraordinary wage growth number, but only because devastation in the layoffs was so concentrated among the Lower Service industry workers. Weve been able to fill that hole somewhat through the expanded Unemployment Insurance and so on. When theens if and layoffs climbed the income ladder and Unemployment Insurance doesnt do a good job of making people whole, then what happens to gdp . A lot of people are starting to talk about what is the trajectory of wage growth. Theres been some anecdotal evidence that some people are but it isump in pay, not clear how widespread that is going to be. There are anecdotes about some people getting a bump in pay, but many people getting pay cuts. Now, just hold onto jobs. Preserve employment. Tothat people have a place come back to work when the crisis lifts. Is fiscale big story action has helped us so far, but does it help if the layoffs expand into more areas of the economy . Scarlet and we are also not getting clean reads. The march numbers were revised down by a lot. That just puts the idea of a vshaped recovery more out of reach. 80 of themaybe layoffs were identified as temporary. That still means that a fifth of them arent temporary. That is millions of jobs that we already are not describing as temporary. Joe weisenthal, he is one third of this program. I think im 10 of this program. Scarlet is the other 60 . Im glad you wore a sport coat today. Hopefully we will see you in a tie one day. As the lockdown begins its third full month, a growing number of lawsuits are popping up around the country. That is coming up next. Welcome back. A battle brewing in u. S. Courts, as a growing number of Business Owners have filed lawsuits claiming that restrictions aimed at preventing the spread of coronavirus violated their rights. Judges arent necessarily deferring to those requests. Joining us is mark, professor of law at harvard law school. Thanks for being here. When we talk about this fight between businesses who maybe think they were unfairly forced to shut down, and the Governments Authority to impose shutdowns, who do you think has a better leg to stand on . In most of the cases that ive run across, the government typically has a much stronger case. The general National Constitutional rule is that if the governor or state if there are any plausible Public Health reasons for it, the constitution is satisfied. A legal and there is precedent, isnt there . A Supreme Court decision. Explain to us what that decision entails. Is called jacobson versus massachusetts. A quarantine order imposed on businesses. The Supreme Court upheld the order, saying that when the government asked to promote Public Health, it has very broad aboutde to make choices what closures to require, what conditions should be continuing operations and the like. Earlier today we heard from mike pence and he was discussing the impact of the coronavirus and basically said churches should reopen and folks should go back to their congregations. Fornder about the potential some religious exemption. Weve seen the heads of some religious buildings push back on these government restrictions, saying they should be exempted. There are two problems that can arise with religious institutions. One problem arises in some places where the government says we are going to allow essential businesses to operate under appropriate precautions. But it doesnt include religious services. The pastors have a pretty strong case for saying they should be allowed to conduct services. Under the same conditions that businesses are allowed to operate. ,ocial distancing requirements and churches can hold services, but only with social distancing requirements. Whereher situation is one churches are allowed to open, but they dont want to adhere to the kinds of conditions of other activities. Barbershop, you have to have social distancing, but the churches say, we want our people to be close together. They are entitled to conduct their services under Public Health restrictions, and if the state doesnt allow them to do that, then they should win. But if they dont want to comply with the restrictions, they dont have a very strong case. Scarlet context is everything. The judges are upholding the governors orders. At what point does the economic crisis overtake the Public Health crisis in importance . From a National Constitutional point of view, basically never. The governor has authority from the state legislature and acts in a broadly reasonable manner, it will basically never be the case. As a federal constitutional matter. Governorsslatures and will take economic concerns into allow open. Eciding how long from a constitutional point of view, that is basically entirely up to them. Scarlet got it. Professor, thank you so much. Really interesting conversation there. We want to turn our attention now to first word news. Mark President Trump says hes in no rush for congress to pass more stimulus measures to help the economy. Commentsdent made the during a meeting with house republicans. The meeting came hours after the Labor Department announced that 20. 5 million jobs were lost in april. The president signed a 2. 2 trillion dollar stimulus into law in late march. Mr. Says that Vice President pences secretary has tested positive for coronavirus. Shes the second person working in the executive residence to contract the virus this week. Six staffers have been tested and are negative. An Administration Official tells us that miller has not had direct contact with President Trump, but she is married to one of mr. Trumps closest aides, stephen miller. Scientists are taking a closer look at children suffering from covid19. While infections of those under 18 compose a small portion of the worldwide total, they still number in the thousands. Reports inalso been the u. S. , u. K. , and europe of a mysterious condition among children. Spain is reporting more than 1000 cases in the past 24 hours, the biggest increase in nearly a week. The country is in the first phase of a plan to relax its lockdown. Global news, 24 hours a day, onair and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am mark crumpton. This is bloomberg. Earlier this month, we boost demand for disinfectants and cleaning products. 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