The data in terms of the jobs 5. 3 million in may, up from four. 99 the previous month. This is very backward looking data. I dont think the market will pay much attention to it, but slightly or positive, slightly more jobs out there then maybe the market was anticipating. Really may data, Rearview Mirror stuff. We will be discussing Global Growth as well as what the countries can do to fix the fiscal stimulus and how to help unemployment coming up and about a halfhour. The stocks are losing the momentum of the last five days, so we are stuck in this range. In an interview in the financials times, a couple of and theere troubling, trajectory of the recovery will be bumpy or. We are watching this closely and trying to understand what is happening. Haefele. Ark mark, how do you understand what we are seeing in asset prices versus every economist morning we are looking at a w shaped, with a lot of risk as we head into the back half . Right. Ou are there is a lot to juggle. The story that does not make headlines every day, but the one that will matter the most, is this story of fiscal and , tickly whatort the federal was herb done and is continuing. We think that support can help drive valuations higher and smooth out some of the main street pain with the benefit for wall street. So how much faith should investors have in the Central Bank Given the fact that the data is improving . Mark i think there is some concern to jump to when will the Federal Reserve and other Central Banks pull back on the stimulus. Taking the chairman at his word that they are not even thinking about raising rates, that is powerful. Even what we are seeing in the inflation data and the concerns about the economy, i think we can put that off into the future said, theon what you negative data around how many people are making restaurant reservations in the short term. We do know that economies continue to open up overall, and we should continue to get better backseater on the front which hopefully could provide some data that we are not going back to the lockdowns that did not really seem to work very well. That does that mean equities are still the right place to put the money based on that thesis . Mark i think we would look more towards Global Equities now on the whole. We still like u. S. High yields, but it might be time to diversify. I think the s p 500 and the nasdaq in u. S. Equities, we look moving towards the midcaps to try and get some of the value diversify. [standby]he s p actually delivering what the market expects . Mark im not sure how much the market really expects out of certainly there is a hope that that news will be positive. I think the u. S. Side is important because you see a lot of people jump to what is going on with the election and the uncertainty about that and how it will impact the u. S. Markets, but they skip over the point you made which is as both the democrats and republicans shore up their stance going into the election, we are likely to get ,ore stimulus this month hopefully this month, which should help support equity markets and the broader economy. Alix if we are betting on a stimulus that should come in the next four weeks, how do you look at these numbers when you have these numbers at record highs . Mark it is good to look at the earnings, i think it is harder to put a valuation on some of given what the growth rates are. I think for a lot of this, what we are trying to do is look through to where earnings will what trendand earnings is and then trying to put a multiple around that, given that the central bank support and where the equity risk premiums are, very low bond yields, you can see some moves higher in the markets over the next six months or so. You mentioned the rotation towards Global Equities. Does that include the chinese equities . Would your advice be to get involved in that trade . Mark we have shifted some of our exposure to south asia. The north asia recovery has been very strong. I think theres pockets there that we like, like the 5g buildout, but as you highlighted, we are looking now, what else is rebounding, whether it is south east back a little bit, trying to capture some of that, or europe. I think if things are looking better in europe, they seem to be looking at u. K. Equities which have some value and some cyclicality. Following that coverage trade is a theme we are looking at. Guy, go ahead. Guy sorry. Just thinking about the u. K. , you clearly think the pessimism is clearly overdone. , youve got the potentiallyand tapering its qe program. Why would you want to invest in the u. K. When it is not delivering relative to its peers . Mark i think you are right on broader itself, but the ftse 100 index, 40 is value sector which have underperformed, and they lean a little towards europe, so if you see that recovery, then i think the u. K. Can make up some of that gap. Always a pleasure to speak with you. We greatly appreciate it. We will carry on the conversation about what is going on with the virus, australia looking melbourne down as virus cases jump there. We have more on the efforts to with the Carbon Health ceo. On that with take him, coming up next on bloomberg. Happy tuesday. This is bloomberg markets. Scarlet we are looking at this soaring more than 40 , this based biotech firm is the latest and biggest recipient of the operation warp speed by the white house, the vaccine program. It is getting funding for a vaccine that is currently in development. The ceo told the New York Times the company will use the money to scale up its manufacturing capability. The timeline is interesting. It will start making vaccine by late 2020 before the trials are complete. It will deliver on hundred billion doses i the first enough of 2021, which is for 50 Million People to get an initial dose and a booster. I was looking this up, this company trajectory means the stock prices skyrocketed at the start of the year. One reason why is because the expect seen relies on proteins that is worked against other pathogens. Other companies in the Operation Warp Speed Program are using less proven technologies. So the u. S. Government is diversifying the portfolio by approving drugs that use a variety of approaches. Awarded thisod company a 60 Million Contract and in may a group gave the company over 300 billion to make the vaccine available globally. Scarlet, thank you very much. Interesting, never having been approved for vaccine ever, so there are experimental products out there. We will carry on the conversation and speaking with to tunedefinitely want in for that conversation. Next we have Caesar Djavaherian joining us now. Carbon health is building one of the at home coronavirus tests. I went to ask you a fundamental question that the market is grappling with. We have a rising case counts in the United States, but we have falling mortality. Can that carryon or will that carryon, and will we get to the point where we reach a tolerable point on the mortality rate . Are sure that there is no way around that. You can try to explain some things away that the mortality rates are low because we are better at treating the disease, or younger people are getting at, but we know that as cases rise, about 1. 4 of people who , andt will die unfortunately that is the leading indicator. Alix isnt there some truth to the pushback at we are Getting Better at treating the disease, if there is not an overflow in the hospital beds, plus if younger people are getting infected, isnt there something to that . No one once anyone to die, but when do we get to something we can manage . Wesar along these lines, know theres only one prudent treatment that is been studied, so that dexamethasone, drops mortality in the sickest severe d resident other medications that have been discussed have a smaller effect in certain populations paid we do not expect that to make a huge dent. We are already seeing hospitals overflowing, so this continuation of the first wave, whatever it is, it is happening, and hospitals are starting to certify this. I am seeing more and more people coming into the emergency room with coronavirus, and that is scaring me. Even if they are young, they will go home and infect family members. That is what we are seeing in the field every day, and it is scary. Where is the u. S. Going wrong right now . There is criticism at the United States in terms of the response because of the nature of the different states and lack of testing. You are looking at testing very carefully. What is the u. S. Doing wrong relative to other nations . Datar you can look at the around testing, and it is fairly clear that amongst developed countries the u. S. Is far behind. If you look at mortality rates, the u. S. Is one of the highest. If you look at the number of tests performed per positive patient found, the u. S. Is abysmal. You are right, this is because of their fragmented approach where states have different rules. The federal government is saying it is up to the states, but there is no adult really taking control of the pandemic and making decisions that are broadbased. We are doing everything we can at our company. There is no Lab Companies or technology that we have not way to reach patients that we have not considered to try to get testing out there. There are certain terns in this pandemic. We found the fda blocked some programs in areas that were promising particular with at home. Alix lets get to that part. There is a great article on bloomberg talking about how this one reporter had to get her Antibody Test like five times even though she knew she had the disease before she got results that made sense. Walk me through where are we with the tests. How do we know they are real . Scenariosere are two for believing tests, the first is if you do the swab test, and you are positive, then you have the virus. There are not really any false positives when it comes to the swab test. If you are positive with the swab test, you have the coronavirus. Testntibody test, if you negative, then you can be assured that you have not had an immune response to one of the coronavirus is out there. The other scenarios really are not as reliable. If you test negative with the swab test, some recommend you get a second swab test to confirm that you truly are negative. The specificity of the test is if we identify virus particles on the swab test, we are sure it is there. The Antibody Test it is not specific enough to repeat so we havethat you might not response to that coronavirus and not others and still test positive. The patient you are referring to, i have had a patient in a and it reallyion, is a question of how much of the immune response will there be an does this hurt immunity, will this allow us to open up the economy . I do not think that will happen frankly. The database will back me up. For thank you so much joining us. Coming up, Deutsche Bank christian sewing on the second half of the year. This is bloomberg. There are lots of events. It is not only the pandemic. I think there will be certain certainddy, but volatility, but i feel very happy with this business, how we have established ourselves particular in this market, and it will be hard to repeat. Guy that was Christian Sweing speaking earlier. Trading is starting to back off and i think it will be fascinating to see how these banks do in the second half, and over the last few days, every time the indexes rally it is sold off aggressively and i think the market is getting nervous as we approach the big numbers. I am fascinating to hear about that. Upx and then you wind looking at the loan loss , so definitely interesting coming into the quarter. Guy we will talk more about the jobs market later. Jobs ahead we will discuss and that Employment Outlook ,angel gurria will be joining us. Guy lets turn our attention to what is happening in the jobs our kids. The oecd is out with the latest report. If we get a second wave, unemployment could increase even further, and angel gurria joins us now. Is it time for governments like the United States to stop protecting jobs and encourage people back to work, or are we not at that point yet. We should not stop supporting those who have lost their jobs. Certainly not yet, but in some sectors you will have to continue for longer. You have to encourage people to go back to work, but it is not a voluntary question. Every witty everybody would like to go back to work. The question is whether the jobs are still there or whether the sectors have been touched by the crisis or not, and whether it is a question of choosing to go back to work. Is not theunately case, and as we are projecting, it will get more difficult towards the end of the year. U. S. Officials here in the will debate that and they will say that actually the extra Unemployment Benefits are preventing citizens from going to work, and they talk about Business Owners who cannot get their workers back. What is the rebuttal to that . Angel i would like you to ask those who have actually lost their jobs or who have applied for Unemployment Benefits, but whose future is uncertain. I would also ask, youre talking about 40 Million People. In france you are talking about half of the workforce which is in what they call partial work, lesst or short working hours including in some cases zero working hours. So there is some optimism in terms of some of the numbers fast, buttter pretty that was to be expected. The question is what happens in the medium and longerterm when we see the more structural damage that was caused by the crisis. This is why we see a ushaped recovery, not a vshaped recovery, and the question is how long will the bottom part last. How sustainable, the u. K. Is talking about ending its furlough scheme and the United States is talking about ending some of the protections it is providing. How sustainable are these programs . You talk about carrying on, but they are incredibly expensive and you wonder when we need to start thinking about retraining people to go and find new jobs elsewhere. First of all, there is a up, in somethe pick cases, including the United States, they prolonged the eligibility for the companies to pick up benefits including small and medium scale businesses because there is still 120 billion on the table. The question of whether they are using these benefits, that is one thing. In germany, this is something that was already practiced by the industry and by the businesses during the crisis. People know what to do, they know which forms to fill and people know how to account for their staff. There is this question of culture, and in the case of germany, a very great level of trust among the private sector and the unions and the government to face crises. So all these things are important in explaining the higher pickup. Now how long can they last . This is why we have to throw everything we got at the crisis, at the virus, so we can beat it as soon as possible, and that recovery will not be so expensive and that eventually weekend pay for the consequences, there a dramatic consequences of the virus in terms of unemployment and in how many Large Companies are going to have to be intervened by the state, literally when the states are becoming shareholders because otherwise the companies would go under. A very active period for the state, and our impression is the state will have to be active for some time to come. Toel which leads me retraining alix which leads me to retaining, so the other side of the u will look very different. What does that due to mobility and wage growth . The gradual reopening of the economy is providing some relief, if it is done well, done correctly, if the closing was long enough and was tough enough, in a way youre having better results and the world today is a mosaic, and if you take the 50 states, that in itself is a mosaic of different ways to approach the pandemic and different results depending the policies that you decided to take. However i would say when you are reskilling,s, this is crucial, because you typically have the most vulnerable are being hurt the most as a consequence of the crisis, the women, the youth, the children, the elderly, but also the low skilled. The low skilled the ones that are threatened with being left behind. Different what happened in 2008 held009, the low skilled their positions, the very high skilled held the positions. The middle skilled severed the most. Now it is the lower skilled that are suffering, so therefore the policy has to protect them. It is not possible to change into aingle mechanic computer maven. However clearly the skills to meet or face an increasingly digitalize world Going Forward are going to be crucial. Let me throw another word inyou in german, the unions germany are very powerful and play a very strong role in the way that both government and corporate policy is made. Our countries with Stronger Union bases likely to do better as we emerge from this crisis because you have more at a relationship between labor and capital . We have found in our analysis that it is good to have a strong and well organized labor sector because as you very , when they arest talking and negotiating and discussing with the private sector, but also with the government, they represent a , broad share of the workers, that helps the negotiations. Weis less fragmented, and have observed that we get better results, better productivity and better medium and longterm outcomes. Now,e case of the pandemic that would be especially important, so i would say yes, bettereve that having organized labor would help, particularly in these circumstances. Thank you very much for joining us. Down onp, we will drill one sector, airline. Ransportation we will break down all of that with jeremy baines, the president of neste, coming up next. The white house wants congress to pass another stimulus package by the first week in august, according to one top aide, the administration wants to keep the price deck 120 or less. Official tells bloomberg the goal is to protect those who are unemployed. Brazil, the president ial official says he is in good health, and he has been seen mingling with supporters and not wearing a mask. Ians of americans have moved because of the coronavirus according to a survey. Have moved either temporarily or permit any lady permanently because of the virus. Young adults are most likely to have relocated, nearly one if you contrast that into the u. S. , a lot of that comes from different campaigns in the u. S. Been proactive, the individual states, like california, who have been at the forefront of Climate Change for a long time. More and more states are looking at it. There are different stimulus around the fuels that will be supported. Tax credit with Infrastructure Investment or research, with many different policy approaches to getting saf into the plane. Cons andhave pros and limitations. We see that. This is really gaining traction. Recognized as the fuel for reducing omissions from airlines. We greatly appreciate your time today, jeremy baines. Its time for business bloomberg flash. Round claimsdling hitting a roadblock, a federal judge tentatively rejecting the proposal. In dollars of the nearly 11 billion agreed on in settlements. [loud tone] dollars in stocks. We will talk to the postmates ceo in an in exclusive interview. Will invite about 40 of students to campus, including a freshman class. They will be tested for coronavirus every single every three days and will live in single rooms. The other half can return the following semester. That is your business flash. Alix got to love working from home. I thought that was interesting colleges,ing from there was a report saying that colleges and universities contribute 39 billion to the economy through your national student, a huge amount of money that could be a threat of being lost at threat lost. Many of theseber, students will remain in the United States. They are supersmart by definition, adding to the u. S. Economy. If they never show up in the first place, they wont stick around afterwards. The moment u. S. Has an issue with bringing in smart workers, we heard that from the labor test labor secretary a few days back. Alix high, welcome. Im alix steel, live from new york hi, welcome. Im alix steel, live from new york. Travel stocks, looks like they clearly cant catch a bid, but travel stock tech stocks climb higher after the record close yesterday. Guy yep, absolutely amazing. Here in europe we are more negative on every single sector. And the Banking Sector in particular adding downside weight. Nearly 7 10 of 1 , its another positive day for the chinese markets, the csi 300 continuing to climb another 6 10 of 1 . We saw that story in melbourne, backed up prices on the dollar aggressive early on
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