Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Open 20

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Open July 12, 2024

There is no return to lockdown here. Europe shouldsays not return to full scale shutdown to avoid another hit to the economy as french daily cases hit levels not seen since april. Tech continues to drive gains. The nasdaq hits a new record, propelling stocks and futures even higher. Pfizere news on a vaccine serves as a tailwind. Plus, biden vows to end the darkness. Calling his opponent a National Embarrassment. He promises to support the working class and reform taxation. Look at the futures right now. In terms ofains tech stocks in the u. S. A new high. Now we see a little bit of a mixed picture with ftse futures pointing down, but continental futures are on the rise. Back all gaining. Lets take a look at what u. S. Futures are showing us. More green arrows. Almost 0. 2 percent on nasdaq futures right now. Alsond dow futures are gaining. What are you seeing on the gmm . Anna it seems that markets, investors taking a glass halffull approach. You can see some of those markets doing well on the screen right now with the south korean market up by 1. 4 . Coming through. There are some reasons to be cheerful. You mentioned the virus, latest news out of pfizer. Also, the tech rally, factoring that in. If you need to read across from the u. S. Into europe and asia, that is one reason for optimism. On the downside, that gloomy data on jobless claims from the above states yesterday, one million once again. This is kind of a stop start recovery. Notlatest on the virus here good news. We will keep our eye on those moving parts. The European Equity markets look to follow the glass halffull approach we see from asia. Lets get a first word news update for you. Former Vice President joe biden has officially accepted the democratic nomination to challenge donald trump. He used his keynote speech to urge americans to overcome deep little divisions. Has done america in darkness for too long and he will be an ally of the light and not the dark. Has made it known to the u. N. Its desire to reinstate sanctions on iran. Mike pompeo is accusing allies who do not want to do it of failing to lead. Iran has pushed back, saying that the United States is attempting to mislead the world. leader is rebuffing european experts to intervene. He has even refused calls from some western leaders. The eu is calling from a peaceful transition of power, but lukashenko was holding on after a controversial election. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Matt . Matt thanks very much. Asian stocks, u. S. And european the futures all higher. Technology shares driving those gains. Datais despite weak jobs in the u. S. Jobless claims unexpectedly climbed to over 1. 1 million. Kristines now is aquino, who leads our mliv team. Was interesting that stocks rally in the u. S. Considering the jobless claims once again jumped. Absolutely. That has been the storys for equities this week and the last couple of weeks, this growing divergence against the fundamentals as you would see from Economic Data and what is happening in the stock market, which seems to be that the operating protocol right now is drifting higher in the absence of any definitively bad news and that is what we have been seeing. It is a question of how long is this going to continue . We know that this rally is still largely on the back of tech stocks. If you look at the s p 500, quite a divergent in terms of the percentage of index members that reached new highs. It is less than 5 . I would expect it to be the same for the nasdaq. There is this big divergence built on the back of tech stocks. How long can tech stocks really keep carrying the rest of the u. S. Equity markets here . Really interesting question to explore. We got the jobless claims numbers from the u. S. , underlying the stop start, the forwards and back words and terms of the recovery story here. Over a million new jobless claims coming through. Is this something the market is looking through or has ongoing concerns about because the virus is still with us . Absolutely. I think really what investors are wondering now is are equities leading the way or are they lacking behind other market that may be are looking a bit more cautious . In the asset space, we are seeing a bit of a leading in the japanese yen, which is a traditional risk barometer. Yields have stalled the rise we have seen earlier in august and they are Holding Still near the very low levels. There is a lot of caution built in other markets besides equities. The question is are we waiting for the equity shoe to drop . Are we waiting for them to catch up to risk once liquidity gets back into full swing after the summer . Today, in we see pmis feel like we have european pmi coming out every week these days. I guess we are going to see them for august. What do you expect . It would be interesting to see in particular what companies are saying about the employment situation. While we saw some good numbers out of the emi in europe ross the board, jobs was the one concern. A lot of companies in Different Countries in europe have still been noting week employment developments. Story of theth the fact that furlough schemes are about to run out and countries are looking at ways to mitigate this employment or unemployment spike that we are expecting in the latter part of this year. It will be interesting to see what those employment numbers will show us and whether there is any sort of them prove meant or, if not, how will that square up with the fact that furlough schemes are about to run out here . Thanks very much, thanks for joining us. Joining us from the markets live team in europe. Up next, another round of exit talks set to end without an agreement. Is it getting impossible to avoid . We will look at the latest breaking data points on retail sales and government debt. All of that coming up shortly. This is bloomberg. Matt welcome back to Bloomberg Markets, this is the european open. We are 40 minutes away from the start of cash equity trading. Todays top corporate stories from the bloomberg terminal. Vaccine they are working on is on track for regulatory review. The timeline would make it one of the fastmoving vaccines in the world. The two Pharma Companies previously secure deals to supply 100 million doses to the u. S. Uber and lyft have won a reprieve, urging the companys ruling the companies can operate as normal. The new rule mandates the companies treat their employees as employees which would upend their Business Model. To pay 1. 6reed billion to halt essure claims. The payout is considerably more than they paid to acquire the company that made the device. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Anna hopes for a brexit deal seemed to be fading as the latest round of talks is set to end today without an agreement. The british negotiators sought to break the deadlock based on what they saw as Common Ground with the eu, but so far that has not led to a breakthrough. Liz, this clearly very important to the u. K. Economy. It has been something that has been in the works for a long time. It is being overshadowed in terms of the figures or statistics of what is going on with the pandemic. What is your focus around the timeline of exit . Are you still assuming that some kind of trade deal is done by the end of this year . Yes. Are, it is overwhelmingly in the interest of both sides to do a deal that at the very least gives tariff free trade with the u. K. By the end of the year. If you dont have that, you will have disruptive event that will affect both sides at a very difficult time. With that said, what we went through, stories of no breakthrough, but eventually we do think adil does get done. Much disruption the deal that is agreed brings. If it were to be something that does not have any degree of regulation, doesnt have any services, that can still be quite a disruptive event at the end of the year and that is what we are assuming. Saidously, we would have that we were forecasting 6 of. Is that coming on the back of these numbers [indiscernible] the issue is how much production does it bring . How does it affect the recovery . Will the recovery be slower than it otherwise would have been . How does it affect employment in the u. K. . Matt a 6 recovery, as you say here, how does that compare to European Countries that dont have to make a brexit deal with the eu . It is a little bit difficult because of the numbers. But i think, yes, where we have u. K. Gdp at the end of 2021 relative to where it was before the covid crisis, it is lower and that is particularly because of lower investment. Business investment, im expecting to be hit hard by this effects by the general of the current economic climate. Anna lets return to some of the data we got this morning. We got the number for retail sales, which i think a really interesting. Retail sales in the u. K. Up 2 month on month. The estimate was for an increase of 0. 2 . What is the u. K. Propensity to consume right now . What do retailers want people to spend their money on . How do things look now . Liz you just cannot get the brits to stop shopping, can you . You are right. It is all about the mix of spending. Food is a driver. We have seen the normalization of things like feud fuel sales. I think Clothing Sales are still lower than they were prepandemic. I think the issue is that retail is only a part of consumption. We are buying a lot more, having more delivered, but are we going out and buying a coffee on the way . Are we using the gym subscriptions . The kind of areas that form the broader consumption sure and which may not be quite as healthy. If you look at the confidence number that came out this morning, confidence has not really improved very much at all. Yes, buying things in terms of retail and that probably was some pentup demand during lockdown, there is still plenty to buy online, but the wider consumption picture is where we are worried. Matt what are the changes you see people making that you think are going to hold up . Time, the parlance of our what are the stickiest changes people have made . Liz i think we have all had a good think about our lives and lockdown, havent we . Some of the things we have been forced to do, we have actually enjoyed. Do i need to go out to dinner as much . Do i need those expensive holidays . Maybe not. Saving money is possibly one. Working from home is another. People who i know would like to work from home at least partially in the future even when the pandemic is a thing of the past. People have just reassessed their habits fundamentally. For a consumer in somebody like the u. K. , that could be quite worrying. Indeed. So the things those Office Workers normally consumed, that can be quite worrying. 38 of people in the u. K. Are working remotely, what i read in your note. Let me ask you about the debt numbers. U. K. Government debt topped 2 trillion pounds for the first time, clearly a lack of tax receipts during the early part of the lockdown issue here. How high does this number get now . We are talking about a debt to gdp number over 100 . Liz yes, we think it continues to rise. We have about 105 of gdp this year and next year, as well. Government borrowing is humongous this year and that is because of all of the emergency schemes the government has put in, most importantly the Job Retention scheme, but other programs, as well, and as you say, a lack of tax revenue because a lack of activity, but also tax breaks and holidays, as well. A little less next year, but it will be hard for the government to come back and say, now we need to give you your tax bill back, we need to cut back spending. I think it will be very hard for them to do that in the current economic climate. It is going to be a lot higher, the national debt. Liz, thanks so much. Thanks for giving us your time this friday morning. 40 minutes to go until the start of the European Equity trading day. Coming up, avoid a new lockdown at any cost. The german chancellors morning. The block deals with a new outbreak of coronavirus cases. This is bloomberg. Welcome back to Bloomberg Markets, this is the european open. 30 minutes away from the start of trading. Onare looking at gains continental equity Index Futures , but slight losses for ftse futures. A Covid Vaccine being jointly developed by pfizer is on track to be submitted to regulatory review as early as october. The Companies Say it is well tolerated with mild to moderate fever and fewer than 20 of participants. The positive news comes as german chancellor Angela Merkel lockdowns. To avoid speaking with french president Emmanuel Macron she set the closing borders should be avoided at any cost. About dealingrn with a Public Health crisis without delivering another blow to the economy, according to Angela Merkel. Good morning. Theme ask first how bad situation is across europe in terms of the virus right now. Really risingng cases almost everywhere in europe. France, yesterday has a rise of 4700 k says, the most since mid april. Also, germany has had the highest numbers in several months throughout the week really. We have also seen rising cases in Eastern Europe and spain. Albia a bit more moderate in italy, as well. It is important to remember that the situation we are having now is still a far cry from the one we had in march, april, where all the hospitals were overflowing in some of the southern European Countries and we had thousands of deaths each day. We are still far away from that stage, but we obviously have rising cases everywhere and that is a worrying trend. How have european leaders been reacting to this . So far and this is what we have heard Emmanuel Macron talk about yesterday so far, they have been doing everything to try to avoid general lockdowns again. Now are just more targeted initiatives then lockdowns in march and april. We have seen mandatory mask wearing being much more widespread. We have france declaring some areas where people eating outside have to wear masks. We have seen local shutdowns. We have seen the closing of nightclubs and other venues that could be spreaders of the virus. We have seen the quarantining of travelers who come from risk areas. Just yesterday, germany declared parts of croatia as a risk areas, so people who come back from those areas need to quarantine for two weeks or show that they have a negative test result. Chancellor merkel said at the moment what will not happen is that will not be any further easing of restrictions that are in place. She also stressed that what she wants to avoid is a closing of orders at all cost. Thanks very much. Not taking the edge off the Global Equity session just now, but something investors are watching mostly. Thank you very much. Next. Olitics biden accepts the democratic nomination and vows to end this season of darkness. We discuss the latest on u. S. Politics. This is bloomberg. You doing okay . Yeah. This moving thing never gets any easier. Well, xfinity makes moving super easy. I can transfer my internet and tv service in about a minute. Wow, that is easy. Almost as easy as having those guys help you move. We are those guys. Thats you . The truck adds 10 pounds. In the arms. Okay. Transfer your Service Online in a few easy steps. Now thats simple, easy, awesome. Transfer your service in minutes, making moving with xfinity a breeze. Visit xfinity. Com moving today. Anna welcome back to Bloomberg Markets european open this friday morning. 30 minutes until the start of the cash equity trading session. European equity futures suggest they will be a little bit stronger at the start of the trading session. Lets look at what is happening today. We are monitoring events in brussels, where the latest round of brexit talks is due to conclude. The postmaster general is appearing before the senate this afternoon following concerns delays could affect the u. S. Election. That has been a big talking point this week. It we will get another look at how the u. S. Economy is faring. Im looking ahead to the supporters will be excited to see the show down in the Champions League final on sunday. I know where you are, people are very excited about this game. Matt absolutely. It has been walltowall coverage in german media, as you would expect. Bayernmans tend to think munich is the best soccer team on the planet. I sure that could be disputed. Bidenng of disputes, joe has accepted the democratic nomination to challenge President Donald Trump in november. In his acceptance speech, he urged americans to vote for a new National Leadership that will overcome political divisions in the United States. Mr. Biden the current president has cloaked american darkness for far too long. Too much anger, too much fear, too much division. Here and now, i give you my word. If you entrust me with the presidency, i will draw on the best of us, not the worst. I will be an out lie of the light, not the darkness an ally of the light, not the darkness. Time for we the people to come together. Make no mistake, united, we can and will overcome this season of darkness in america. Matt bloombergs kailey leinz has been following the d c. What have been dnc. Would have been the main themes in joe bidens speech. Deemphasized this theme of light versus he emphasized this theme of light versus darkness. There were questions about his ability to deliver because he has bungled in the past. He succeeded. It was not so much policy oriented. He did give mentioned to his economic plan, but it was more about contrasting himself with President Trump also about unity. He says although he is the democratic nominee, he wants to be an american president. He says this is not a partisan moment, it is an american moment. He did take direct aim at the president. Biden spent a good deal of time focusing on the

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