Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20240712 :

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance July 12, 2024

This is the exact moment where Boris Johnson may be about to speak to eu leaders. We understand that most of it is virtual. We are expecting the Prime Minister to give his response on whether he is continuing to negotiate. There was that selfimposed deadline on october 15. We dont know whether he is happy with the progress or whether he thinks even if there is not progress, he still wants to give it a shot. Tom there is your update this morning. Lot, like about the map of the fisheries. Its like a big deal, right . In the north . Francine i remember being a young reporter a million years ago showing up in brussels and actually going to at the time, it was not much to talk about, but our editor said watch out for fisheries, because nobody talks about them. Its always a fishing problem, as we see with brexit in 2020. Tom there we are with your update. Ritika gupta just nodded off. Lets start the show with the bloomberg first word news in new york. Ritika good morning. President trump and joe biden were on tv last night at the same time, but on different channels. They held competing televised town halls, instead of debating as the schedule had originally called for. On nbc, the president said he knew that the coronavirus was a huge danger. Pres. Trump i knew it was a big threat. At the same time, i dont want to panic this country. I dont want to go out and say, everybody is going to die ritika in a town hall moderated by abc news george stephanopoulos, biden was asked if he would take a Coronavirus Vaccine once it had been approved. Mr. Biden if the body of Scientists Say that this is what is ready to be done and it has been tested and they have gone through the three phases, yes, i would take it. I would encourage people to take it. Ritika the two candidates will face off next week in the final president ial debate. President trump will lean on Senate Majority leader Mitch Mcconnell if thats whats needed to get a stimulus bill passed. Thats according to treasury secretary steven mnuchin. He told House Speaker nancy pelosi that the president would personally lobby Reluctant Senate republicans. Mcconnell wants a bill that is much smaller than the proposals being considered by pelosi and the white house. It is brexit decision day for Boris Johnson. The british Prime Minister is set to decide whether to abandon trade talks with the european union. The blocs leaders have failed to give johnson the clear signal he wants to remain at the negotiating table. He said he would assess whether a deal was reachable after this weeks summit of eu leaders. And the top aviation regulator in europe says boeings revamped 737 max is safe to fly. Test flights were held in september. The 737 max has been grounded for more than years because of two fatal accidents. Boeing still has to get approval from the faa before the plane can start flying again in the u. S. Global news 24 hours a day, onair and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am a group to. This is i am ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Tom remarkably quiet right now. Futures flat, negative one on futures. I really want to go to european rates, which are subsiding again in a disinflationary tendency. Essentially, a greater negative rate. There is just a weight in the yield market towards lower and lower yields in europe. That bears close watching through the chinese monday and into monday morning. Francine . Francine i am looking at pound. We are expecting, i dont know if it comes now or later, you see what Boris Johnson decides when it comes to brexit. I am looking at some of the stocks that are performing. Lvmh shares are up after they say demand rebounded in the third quarter. Positive news filtering through to european stocks. Tom very good. This is a monthly affair and it is always done equality. Foreign affairs magazine, the font is adult size. What is interesting about Foreign Affairs, you can read it cover to cover, but the way that you really read it is article to article. Gideon rose joins us right now. Also, a great treaties on where we are moving forward as well. I am going to take mariana meza cotto is maybe the bigger, broader view. I love how you went immediate on what we are going to do to fix the state department. How do we fix the state department the first wednesday of november or in january of next year . Gideon thank you, tom, for the kind words, as always. The first step is having a desire to change and admitting there is a problem. Is faced cang that be changed, but everything nothing can be changed unless it is faced. The question is, is there going to be a recognition in early november that the course the United States has been on the last few years is fundamentally incorrect . That is what is on the ballot internationally and domestically. Everybody is watching to see what the outcome will be. If the outcome is a change, then there will be lots of discussion about how to right the wrongs, change policy. One thing everybody agrees on is , we dont yet know what of the changes are permanent and which will go away. You will only be able to survey the wreckage and assess the damage to all sorts of see whations until you of the United States after the election and with the new presidency remains constant in America First and what blips back to a more multilateral approach. Tom the one source of carbon anate is common debate is animosity towards china. I am dying to know how you think a Biden Administration, if the Vice President wins, is similar or different on china than the present administration. Gideon thats a great question, because the basic takeaway i think from all the stuff we are reading and publishing these days is not that much of the Trump Administrations approach will continue, because its just so selfdestructive and counterintuitive and doesnt work. Before, what was there was not working and was not satisfying lots of people. The question is, what do we build back to . On china, there is a recognition that simply hoping for china to change and mellow as a result of engagement is not a sufficient policy, if it ever was. There is a debate between people who say we are in an inevitable competition and we just have to prepare for that. Others say look, just because we are in a competition does not mean we are about to go to work. Lets treat them as a mature, rival great power and assess where we can agree and disagree, and try to keep things calm without necessarily being idealistic about where things are going. Francine gideon, how does capitalism change after this . Does it change because of the pandemic or more under a Biden Administration . Gideon the two together. What the pandemic has revealed is the fractures and problems in the existing political economy, internationally and domestically. It has exacerbated those. The markets have snapped back and a lot of top firms are doing well and the toptier employment of the top percentile has gotten back. The costs have been concentrated at the bottom of the economic scale, among groups without power. What we do not know yet is what the political ramifications will be. The financial crisis turmoil produced all sorts of changes in populism. This is going to be even more significant because of the unequal consequences and where that politics goes. Clearly, a more interventionist government, a more spend government. What do we spend it on . How do we collaborate domestically and internationally . Francine we talk about the social contract. Does that change worldwide . Are we going to have a lot more countries intervening in companies, intervening with health care . At the end of the day, how does that change the complete dynamics of the world . Gideon so, there is definitely going to be a lot more intervention. Insufficient as an approach to manage the turbulent social dynamics of capitalism, even if it were the ideal economic policy. That does not mean you want to shut down economic dynamism. How do you manage to get some of the dynamism of markets, but with some of the social protections of social democracy . The challenge for every country will be how to benefit economically from the upsurge post pandemic, the recovery, but how to build back better in a different way. One of the pieces in the issue talks about, if we are going to give bailouts, what are you going to demand of the private sector in return for them . Are there fundamental changes in practice . A more stakeholder capitalism instead of a shareholder capitalism . The argument is basically going to be towards more social democracy rather than more laissezfaire. Tom will the institutions pushback against her that . There is a huge conservative bias to push back against a social progressivism, if you will. Are they really going to let it happen . Gideon the most interesting question will be, do rich people as a group collectively think that the accumulation of debt is going to be such a problem that they will cut it off . In the early 1990s, James Carville said i want to come back as the bond market in the next life, because everybody listens. Right now, we are in an era magic money. Everybody is throwing money like its in that context, i do not think that is going to be a check on spending, unless and until the economic consequences of so much new spending tom this is scary. Gideon rose and sebastian mall together would be too much diplomacy. We will continue with gideon rose. I have got important questions on 1307 miles that are out there in the pacific. He is with Foreign Affairs magazine, no question about that. Let us come back with the tape churning. 10 year yield,. 72 . Not much to talk about. As i said before, the negative yields in europe really stay sustained and ever more negative. This is bloomberg. I knew it was a big threat. At the same time, i dont want to panic this country. Say,t want to go out and everybody is going to die mr. Biden we have 4 of the worlds population and we have 20 of the worlds deaths. What is he doing . Nothing. Pres. Trump we had the greatest economy in the history of our country last year, including in the state of florida, where we are now, pennsylvania, every place the greatest economy we have ever had. We had to close it down, we saved two million lives. We are opening it up, we have a vshape, and it is coming back very fast. Mr. Biden you have 91 of the fortune 500 companies not paying a single penny. If you raise the corporate tax, which is a fair tax, you would raise 1,300,000,000,000 by that one act. Pres. Trump i just dont know about qanon. You do know. Pres. Trump i dont know. Pres. Trump no, i dont know. What i do know is that they are very much against pedophilia, and i agree with that. Mr. Biden if you take a look, we are not very trusted around the world. When around the world it was asked, who is a better leader, the president came behind both putin, as well as xi. And look at what putin is doing. Tom while you were sleeping, some of the highlights of two debates last night. 18, 19 days to the election. Really centered on the animosities, as described. With us, gideon rose of Foreign Affairs magazine. Celebrate a wonderful issue here. One idea is the american distance of taiwan to china is 81 miles. The reality is, it is taipei and it is beijing, 1307 miles as well. The other idea here is your wonderful essay, china thinks americas losing. Really provocative. How do we reverse that tone . Gideon this is a good piece in the new issue. The argument is, just like Osama Bin Laden was convinced that we china isweak horse, basically convinced that the Trump Administrations policies are a frantic National Response to decline, and that the United States is now basically aware that it is not just losing, but aware that it is losing and trying desperately to clamp down on china to prevent its rise. Thats not a plausible take. It would be traditional for National Powers to do that. There is some sympathy for that within america. The Trump Administration and others are trying to drum up a yellow peril. I dont think thats inevitable. Ear fever ofury this administration passes into history and you have a new administration, whenever that is, what will stay and what will go back . Or what will become new . There is no question there will be a tougher line entree going forward. We are not going back to the era of Big International trade euros, unfortunately, as far as i am concerned. China and the United States can be rivals without necessarily having war. The question is, can you have sort of a conscious breakup rout fromn a sort of the old policy towards a new one that is rushing towards war . Francine who has tech supremacy between the u. S. And china . There is going to be a winner and loser or can both the u. S. And china win . Gideon i think that tech is such a large and amorphous question an area that there is not a simple winlose dynamic. The ultimate determinant is going to be which system does well with its tech. China is doing well on tech because they are investing a lot of money and have brilliant people and are putting a lot of effort into it. We did that with our system and invented the modern internet era decades ago. System our our system lively and dynamic in a way that can outcompete china . There is no reason we are inevitably doomed to lose to china on tech. Our system generated all the good stuff in the first place. Can we get our car going . Much. Hank you so it is greatly appreciated this morning, and again, in celebration of a really interesting issue here in november. By the time you get through it, you will have a new second term trump or firstterm biden. What are we missing predicting the next crisis . Coming up, the challenges on the domestic front, the Lieutenant Governor of new york city will join us. Data churning is what i would call it. Dollar fractionally weaker. Stay with us. The Prime Minister active on this friday. This is bloomberg. This is bloomberg surveillance. I am ritika gupta. Hack attack on the robinhood app was wider than previously known. Bloomberg has learned that almost 2000 accounts were compromised in a hacking spree that has siphoned off customer funds. Last week, robinhood said a limited number of customers had been struck by cyber criminals. Jack mas ant group plans to increase the valuation of what would be a recordbreaking ipo. Ants target is now at least 280 billion because of Strong Demand and hopes to raise about 35 billion in the sale. The Company Plans to list shares both in hong kong and shanghai on the same day. And earnings bounced back last quarter at the Parent Company of mercedesbenz. Daimler posted betterthanexpected profit. Recovering car sales and cost cuts also gave the company the confidence to predict its momentum will last through the end of the year. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Francine thank you so much. The markets, we are seeing a bit of a lift to the markets. The focus is on some of the industries that are betterthanexpected. We had some encouraging news from lvmh. We are expecting Boris Johnson to decide whether to quit eu trade talks or not. We should get a decision soon. We dont know the time of that but i am looking at pound movement, 1. 2929. In the next data check, i am going to put eurosterling. Tom eurosterling in the next data check . Look law telling me what to do lacqua telling me what to do. Where are you going to get that on a friday . Eurosterling quoted out to five digits, fractionally stronger sterling against euro this morning. Only on bloomberg surveillance. Futures up five, dow futures up 32. A bit of green on the screen right now. Dont know what to make of it on a friday churning in the market, looking for direction, no doubt based on an earnings season forward. Coming up, one of our most anticipated guests, professor galloway of new york university, on the digital dominance that exist today. Scott galloway on the power of those 4. Must listen. Please stay with us. From london, a very active london. From new york, rain coming in. This is bloomberg. This is bloomberg surveillance. President trump was on one channel, joe biden was on another. The town hall event replaced the debate that was scheduled for last night. President was asked about qanon. Pres. Trump i just dont know about qanon. You do know. Pres. Trump no, i dont know. What i do know is that they are very much against pedophilia, and i agree with that. Ritika in a town hall moderated by george stephanopoulos, joe biden was asked whether democrats should pack the Supreme Court if they take control of the senate. Mr. Biden no matter what answer i gave you, if i say it, thats the headline tomorrow. It wont be about whats going on now. Dont voters have a right to know . Mr. Biden they do have a right to know. They dont have a right to know where i stand before a vote. You will come out with a clear position before election day . Mr. Biden yes, depending on how they handle this. Ritika the candidates will face off next week in the final president ial debate. President trump fell well short of joe biden last month when it came to fundraising, according to a filing. The Trump Campaign and the Republican National committee in. Ed almost 248 million september a day earlier, bidens Campaign Announced it had taken in a record 383 million. The coronaviruss march across the u. S. Midwest has caught up with the regions most populous states. Illinois, ohio, and michigan are seeing big jumps in cases. Yesterday, eleanor reported more than 4000 new cases illinois reported more t

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