Ireland, so we are watching the pandemic on those fronts. It wealth story right now is the welsh story is the most serious clampdown. A circuit are being brought in with the hope and expectation that could be lifted after two weeks. Tom and on brexit, im thinking fishing rights. There is an update. It is the end of october, we are getting what is the brexit plan the rest of this week as we are all distracted in america . Anna it seems as if the u. K. Government is still waiting for concessions on the e. U. Side before jumping back in to any kind of talks. Sidewants to see the e. U. Actually verbally explicitly say they will concede something in order to get the talks restarted. We will see whether the e. U. Jumped at the chance or not. Tom we will get to the data in a moment. Futures up 18, a lift off what we saw yesterday afternoon. With first word news in new york city, here is ritika gupta. Ritika House Speaker nancy pelosi and treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin are drawing closer to an agreement on the Coronavirus Relief package. They will talk again today. The deadline pelosi has set for having clarity on a bill that could pass by election day. Even if the two sides reach a deal, Senate Republicans have been balking the price tag. President trump and joe biden will be muted at times in thursday nights final debate. The Debate Commission says that each candidate will have an uninterrupted two minutes to speak at the beginning of each segment of the debate. Then both candidates microphones will be turned on. During the first debate, President Trump repeatedly interrupted joe biden command both candidates talked over the moderator. Omits x has reached a longer way with the Justice DepartmentGoldman Sachs has reached a long awaited deal with the Justice Department. Goldman will avoid a u. S. Criminal conviction. And the price of oil is lower today after opec and allies warned of the precarious outlook for the market. Opecplus is set to add almost 2 Million Barrels a day to the market, starting in january. But that could be delayed. We also have to be preventative. We have to be able to take measures to have both negative to help them in the bog, as the british would say. Important, west have to be proactive. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Tom thanks so much. Equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. First, there is a headline on the aviation business. This is cathay pacific, the giant of hong kong, dealing with the pandemic worldwide and particularly into hong kong. They are going to move 6000 jobs out. This is sort of the airline rolling disaster we see within this natural disaster. Dragon air, one of their subsidiaries, will be closed, i believe is the right language for that. Up 1. 20. Ta, futures dow futures up 1. 30. A attention to the vix here. It is a barometer of the recent volatility wrapped around stimulus, maybe a few other emotions there as well. Ibm with a challenged report yesterday. Yields give me nothing this morning, the dollar gives me nothing, maybe a little bit weaker dollar as well. And i would note sterling, 1. 2972. Anna dollar weakness seems to be the overall theme. Out foround, we hold signals for concessions on the e. U. Side, wanting full on signal of a compromise. We will see if that is forthcoming. The euro gaming the euro gaining ground despite the return of some fairly restrictive measures. Watching italy, watching france, and germany as well. In terms of the stock story in europe, there is some optimism when it comes to earnings because we have had a host of earnings out this morning, and europe has turned things around from a negative start to trade into a positive picture, whether it is computer peripherals at ubs,ech, Bank Earnings at all of those early signs from the earnings season. Lets get it to the stimulus conversation stateside. Very much part of the conversation, nancy pelosi says she and Steven Mnuchin are continuing to narrow their differences on the really package. They plan to speak again today before Nancy Pelosis deadline for a preelection deal. Elliott. S now is how surprised with the market be if you saw a deal before the election . I think quite surprised. At this stage the market has assumed it is not going to happen. I think the day of Supreme Court justice the day since Supreme Court justice passed away, she took the fourth stimulus bill with her to the grave for 20, and all eyes were looking forward to next year, and stimulus in the next administration. Tom what kind of stimulus do you suggest it will be. If you assume we are going to move through the elections with no stemless, what does that make the form of stimulus we could see . If youre talking about the one that would come in q1, that is the that is looking quite different. We shouldnt even use much stimulus. Where violating the Oxford English dictionary because nothing has been stimulated this year. These have been rescue bills, support bills. Tying over household and business balance. But none of it has been actually stimulated. In q1, that term was appropriate. You get support, the element of relief bill, relieving the state budgets, some relief to Certain Industries as well as households, but more importantly ,n q1, im sure the presidency since it has changed, President Biden would tack on Infrastructure Spending to that seamless bill. So it would be larger than the nubbers caret around today, but over composition it would be different. Important here is income substitution. A key question which is beneath the radar is the stimulus now, the stimulus in q1. Is that just an avenue given a longer pandemic to further stimulus or income substitution down the road, or is it essentially one and done . I think basically the big advice to investors these days is we have to say goodbye. O the 2010s ful for the past 10 years we have hung on every word of the central bankers, relying on Monetary Policy changing the drive markets. That era is over. We are now looking at fiscal action, and that is basically the pandemic that has brought about that tradition. Thats that transition. Has brought about that transition. It is not one and done. We are hopeful and fiscal action because we need a game changer, to change the trajectory. Hugethis is a huge, daunting reality in the United States. I dont know what it is like in london and across europe, but the idea of a permanence to fiscal stimulus is not part of the dialogue. Anna and the u. K. We were talking about austerity in years gone by, and that narrative certainly has been kicked to the curb, at least in the short term. Let me ask you about what this means around the election, because we also talk about u. S. Elections, how markets dont mind gridlock in washington because it means that policy doesnt change. But now from what youre saying, gridlock is bad because gridlock means we dont get stimulus or support for wages. Elliot thats absolutely right. I have been calling the u. S. Election the ema election, and you almost use em analytics to think about it. In emerging markets, you dont like first of all my guy. You would rather have one clear picture with one definitive course of action. Markets would prefer and if i government, whether it is a marginally preference for if you cannot have that, then you would rather go with democratic unified government because then you will get the stimulus, you will get the driver that markets and the economy needs. That is at least the pricing position we are starting to see in the last few weeks. Tom elliott, thank you so much. Elliot hentov with us. From state street global advisors. We have much more coming up across all of the network today. Speaker pelosi in the 12 00 hour with david westin. You really wonder if there will be some news there off a morning of discussions. Israel, nancy in pelosi in washington, stimulus in the air. Stay with us. And edwards in london, im tom keene in new york. This is bloomberg. Imnna edwards in london, tom keene in new york. This is bloomberg. Tom lumber surveillance. Good morning, everyone. It is history being made. This is something the president of the United States really, really, really wants to talk about thursday in nashville. The treasury secretary of the United States of america was mr. Netanyahu, and of course the greetings of the foreign minister of the United Arab Emirates. Son of the uae founder, and that is an important issue here. This is sheik abdullah bends i. E. Ben sayyid. Mr. Trump would certainly like to say this is with his leadership. Anna edwards, much has been talked about with supportive mr. Trump, that he deserved consideration for the Nobel Peace Prize over this matter. But it is without question a historic moment. From to buy the emirates airline, with excuse me, eddie out there. These are the two at lines. Emirates is the other. Let us watch for a moment. The symbolism to say the least of an historic moment for the middle east. With us right now, always with symbolism on the markets is john normand of j. P. Morgan. John, what is your observation of markets completely linked to the press releases of stimulus. The behavior of markets is reflecting an optimism that there is going to be big stimulus by january. I dont think it is necessarily a faith that pelosi and mnuchin agreeconnell are going to to anything substantive by the deadline. It is sort of a lookthrough dynamic where the assumption there where the assumption is there will be a democratic sweep. Really whyt is stocks like 2000, the smallcap index command highs near it reflect optimism on domestic stemless pretty soon. Tom mr. Net and yahoo making mr. Netanyahu making comments. We will continue with john normand as we monitor the events. I look at the stimulus in the pop here. What is the j. P. Morgan estimate of where gdp is right now . Q4, it ist now in extremely early days, but it is probably going to be a 3 quarter. That sounds like a major step down from the 30 pace it was. It is a huge step down, but still above trend. I think it if if it is going to be above trend, you have terms and support for markets. But there is wildcard risk around this. I think we are assuming something positive will happen in january that will keep petitions pretty high in markets. But if nothing happens in january in terms of big stimulus, we will see consumer entrenchment well before that date. Anna good morning to you. When you think about what stimulus should look like in the United States, or that comes before the election or perhaps more likely after, when you think about what it should look like and how some americans and this is a really patchy story some americans have pushed up savings as a result of the lockdowns earlier on in the year, what should stimulus look like to make the biggest difference for the u. S. Economy . Size and composition, size is probably something, at least 1. 5 trillion, composition is employment and stimulus checks, all of this having everything north of the trillion are pretty relevant for growth over the next six month or the next year or so. If washington really wants to make a difference in terms of welfare, a needs to be in terms of direct income support. I would suggest the savings rate has gone up a lot. There is the ability to consumption smooth until the First Quarter of next year, but that is only on the assumption that Additional Support will be coming. If that Additional Support doesnt like doesnt look like it is coming, not sure consumers who have such a hive savings rate a high savings rate they may be more conservative, and then we will get the opposite outcome. As we monitor these conversations run stimulus or income support, we will be watchful about what is happening on the vaccine front. What do you think the Market Reaction function will be around a vaccine . Will it matter which of the companies is making progress or how quickly these things will be rolled out and in which parts of the globe . What are you going to be watching for . Think there are two elements that could come before the end of the year. One is a discovery by a major drug maker in the u. S. , europe, or china, and the second is Regulatory Approval around the end of next year. Equity sectors that have and if it of most from covid, valuations that have been hurt the most by covid such as travel, tourism, parts of hospitality, commercial real estate, energy these are quite depressed relative to precrisis levels. I dont know precisely how much these markets are going to move, but the gap still looks large to me. That is why i think it will be a market moving event when it comes to discovery and approval. Tom where should the vix be . I have a 28 handle on the vix now. In your head, where should the vix be away from the election, away from all the other moments of volatility right now . John if you think growth is going to be above trend for the next 12 months, through some combination of monetary and fiscal stemless, it should be above 20. That is a typical level we would associate with stable expansion and earlystage vigorous expansion. I think the level being above what is normally consistent growth at this pace highlights all the uncertainties around the outlook. You have a baseline view of above trend growth, but it is subject fiscal management of colorful of covid second wave , and an assumption about which way the u. S. Election goes. It is not surprising that the vix is above where current growth tells us where it should be. It is a risk premium, and there is uncertainty in the cycle. Emphasize enough what john normand just said there. 28. 51 right on the vix. Futures up. We will continue with john normand of j. P. Morgan. Netanyahu, mnuchin, and the foreign minister of the United Arab Emirates an historic moment for the middle east, signing of agreements there. Truly an historic moment for the middle east. Maybe with comments on this later. This will be interesting, and the late 00 hour, in the universitya former chair with janet yellen. A pleasure to speak with joe stiglitz today. Stay with us. This is bloomberg. Good morning. Ritika this is bloomberg surveillance. Intel has agreed to sell its manned memory unit two south koreas sk hynix. 9 billion. About the chipmaker took on trade on its main business. It will also shore up the position in a business that has boomed in the pandemic. The memory chips are using everything from iphone to data centers. Ubs voted betterthanexpected profit in the Third Quarter and from increased market volatility and high transactionbased income. The bank set aside 1. 5 billion to share buybacks next year. Ceo Sergio Ermotti is set to step down november 1. The ceo of mayor turner of aderna says there could be virus introduced in december. Hoping for positive interim results next month from a large clinical trial. He told a wall street journal conference that it takes longer to get government approval, which may not happen until early next year. Thank you very much. Ritika gupta with the business flash. European equity markets seeking direction. We may have to wait for the u. S. To open up to get that way for the u. S. Futures point to the upside. Stocks in europe fairly flat. 28. 54, as we were speaking with john normand, and he will speak again in a moment. We are listening to the ceremony of israel, the United States, and the United Arab Emirates. The foreign minister of the United Arab Emirates speaking. He is the son of the founder of the United Arab Emirates, with secretary mnuchin and mr. Netanyahu of israel. This is bloomberg. Good morning. Political stability and peacemaking. Economic cooperation and investment. Its not fair to directly ever try to help the federal government demand the budget deficit, and that would be a dangerous kind of support to provide, but i expect asset are holding down longerterm rates, and i expect there to be ongoing purchases, but probably not eared toward the deficit. Tom in central banking history that i have done, back to paul volcker, and i interviewed arthur burns but i believe that report is inaccurate. Ive never seen what we saw yesterday. We were speaking to janet yellen about auction theory. We were speaking to her about climate change, and she shift did the dialogue to this heated and forceful comment on monetary and fiscal policy. I can say, and i, i have never seen a central banker, active or retired, as forceful as the gentlelady was yesterday. She was fired up. It was really something. Sure she ism echoing the thoughts many who were in central banking still have been making. We have heard many calls for government to do anything. Do their thing. When we were talking about mario draghi, of a very different look at it. Tom with all of these distractions, this is extraordinary, what we heard from yellen yesterday. John joins us from jp morgan. I was thunderstruck by the force from jenny ellis. Yellen. Wheres the immediacy from powell, around the world, of central bankers saying lets go . John it just reflects a Global Recognition by central bankers that theres a limited degree by which they can improve the economy through Monetary Policy. Theyve already pushed down longterm Interest Rates, asset purchases, and the only meaningful stimulus from here forward is on the fiscal side. Thats why they all call for it. Even though the issued the idea of providing direct financing to governments, their actions provide that de facto. Tom what are the degrees o