White house in the east room. With 400 of his closest friends. Thanks to mary a parker. Emily wilkins is covering the biden campaign. Emily the Vice President began his day in delaware. He visited the grave of his son beau biden. He said his sons passing was part of the reason he decided to launch this third for president. He visited scranton pennsylvania and is now just leaving philadelphia. We are expecting him on the stage in wilmington, delaware. We do not know whether we will be able to have a president ial announcement at that point, but we are expecting joe biden to address the nation. David Emily Wilkins will be with us throughout the evening as well as she covers the Vice President s campaign. The markets have been watching the election closely. We turned to Abigail Doolittle for what they are telling us today. What are they saying. Abigail we have investors interested in stocks. A very big rally on our hands. The s p 500 up 2 , its best day since june. Investors wanting in. Interesting is the fact the volatility index is down, that suggests some investors think we will know who the next president is sooner rather than later. Also supporting the risk on town , we have haven bonds down. Overall investors have a strong risk appetite. Suggesting or supporting the idea there could be a blue wave in place, some investors are saying the move into cyclical sectors we have seen in the materials and industrial sectors out of the technology and discretionary sectors, which are growth er. That supports Vice President joe biden. His policy support those more cyclical and value areas. On the other hand, as you and i have been talking, the s p 500 is trading at a huge range of last three months. Historically when that range is higher, it supports the incumbent winning. The bottom line is the market suggest this president ial race is much narrower than the polls do. Today, the appetite, the move is risk on. David thank you so much. A lot more to talk about with the markets in election as we go forward with Abigail Doolittle. Cristobal is one of the key think crystal ball is one of the key things we follow. We welcome larry sabatino. We have seen your final note before the election. Interesting things. Give us your sense of what the key issues are in the president ial for the moment. President ial, covid is hanging over everything. Clearly it has changed everything for President Trump. Go back to the beginning of the year, before we knew a pandemic was coming, or at least only a handful new. President trump had probably a 5050 or better chance of winning a second term because the economy seemed golden. Most president s who have a good economy are favored for a second term. We all know what has happened since. It is not just the pandemic. I do not think voters would automatically hold a president responsible for that, but they do hold a president responsible, correctly, for the administrations response or lack of one to the pandemic. The judgment has been pretty harsh on President Trump. David as you know, President Trump lost the popular vote four years ago. If you look the ark electoral if you look the Electoral College it was not that close. How many states will Vice President biden have to switch to get the 270 number . They are depends if big states or small states. If he switches florida and texas, game over, assuming he holds Hillary Clinton states. If he takes florida, that alone may be enough to close the election down, although there are couple of paths that would get trump to 278 without florida. If texas to 270 without florida. If texas goes, the game is really over. Texas probably only goes to biden if other states were going to biden as well. Sabatos crystal ball is saying florida is leaning republican. Georgia you think is leaning to the democrats. The last time they voted for a democrat for president was 1992, William Jefferson clinton. Larry that is absolutely correct. There been a lot of demographic changes in georgia, and those changes have switched other states in other parts of the country. Colorado and virginia being two obvious examples. You have to keep a close watch on how the population is changing. His georgia guaranteed to go to biden . No. It is a coin flip. The reason we gave florida to trumps because it is tied in the polling averages. Joe biden is up a little bit in florida. Trump because the last few elections republicans have outperformed their polls and out organize the democrats. We have not seen that a lot has changed. Georgia is different. North carolina is a different case. Every state is its own universe. At at the same david the same time, if you Pay Attention to what the candidates have done, you conclude pennsylvania is key. In your note, you termed it the shaky asked. What is going on in that state . Larry it is competitive. It does not appear to be doing what pennsylvania did last time, because remember Hillary Clinton lost last time, not as much because the rural turnout was so high or the percentage for trump was so high, though it was, it is because the urban turnout in philadelphia and elsewhere in pennsylvania was limited. It was much lower than expected. There was not that much enthusiasm for clinton, and some constituency groups were not that crazy about her. David this is an unprecedented election in so many ways. Number a pandemic, the of early voters is over 100 million americans. Does that make you doubt how reliable the polls are . Could this be a sport case . Larry after 2016 i would not say i have an excess of confidence in the polls, early vote or no early vote. I think the polling has improved a lot. A lot of changes have been made because everybody was embarrassed, not by the National Polling averages, but specific swing states that did not go according to polling plans. Things have improved, it does not mean they are perfect, it does not mean they cannot be pulled again, but we have looked more broadly than pulling, we have looked at analytics and demographics and also the judgment of people who have been on the ground in those states for 20, 30, 40 years. Sometimes their judgment is better than the polling. David the senate is up for grabs. Vice seats they need if President Biden becomes president , four if President Trump is reelected to switch the democrats. What are the key issues . Larry if trump wins reelection i doubt the democrats will take the senate. The assumption is joe biden would have to win and therefore the democrats need three net changes. The democrats are losing and will lose alabama. That is where they need four. Left over, losing alabama. I think they have arizona, that is a switch. I think the democrats have colorado. I think they probably will have votes are the allocated for other candidates. They have ranked choice voting. This is a new experiment and will probably help the democratic nominee in maine. That is three. Where does the fourth one come from . Could be North Carolina. Despite a sex scandal. You hadmber a time when a scandal you are out. Not anymore. David [laughter] that is for sure. In georgia, the democrats have two shots. Larry they have two shots except they may not get them until january. Democrats will lead one of the races, they may lead both of the races, but in georgia, they require 50 plus one, a clear majority, in order to win the seat outright on election day. This means a lot of their races go ridiculously long. Imagine having negative ads during the christmas season. That is what they will have with two senate seats up in early january. David finally, my home state, michigan. More interesting senate race than some people thought it would be. Larry it is competitive. If trump were to pull an upset in michigan the way he did four years ago, i would almost expect the republican nominee, who is also africanamerican, to win the seat, running against a freshman democrat, gary peters, who does not have the profile most senators have. Relative unknown even though he is the incumbent. As long as joe biden wins, i think biden will pull peters across the finish line. David it does strike me this is another election for vets. We have it in arizona, we have in kentucky, we have in michigan. A lot of distinguish former officers. Larry yes. We could do a lot worse. That is probably a good thing. In arizona, this is actually for the john mccain seed. There has been a seat warmer running for the seat as a republican nominee, but this is john mccains seat. Both of them are military, both republican and democrat have served in the military. David certain justice. Both aviators. Thank you so much to larry sabato. Director of the center for politics at the university of virginia. Coming up, the polls have had their say, the candidates have had theirs as well. Now is up to the voters. We turn to our bloomberg political contributor jeanne zaino. As we go out for a television audience, we are looking at voters in San Francisco in line. David this is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. We turn to Mark Crumpton for first word news. Mark we are here. Americans turned out in huge numbers to cast their ballots on this election day the elections project says more than 100 million americans have already voted. By the time polls close tonight, the department of Homeland Security estimates that number will be 150 million. Americans may not know who will be sworn in as president next january for days or weeks. If a tight race in battleground states prompts special challenges over late arriving ballots. They may have tried, but no foreign hackers successfully meddled in the 2020 elections here in the United States. That from acting Homeland Security secretary chad wolf. He says officials remain on high alert for any interference by foreign actors, including russia, china, and iran. President trump has repeatedly challenge the u. S. Intelligence communitys findings that russia tried to influence the 2016 election in his favor. Retailers are bracing for violence in the wake of the election. Store owners in manhattan, washington, and other cities have boarded up their windows. In beverly hills, police are closing the famed rodeo drive today and tomorrow. In the u. K. , officials are planning to raise the countrys threat level to severe, the second highest level. That follows terrorist attacks in france and austria. A level of severe means officials believe an attack is highly likely. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. I am Mark Crumpton. This is bloomberg. David . Said, nearly 100 million americans have already voted in this years election. Now many who do not vote early are showing up at polling places around the country. What does voter turnout tell us about the election. We turn to jeanne zaino, professor of Political Science at ionia college. You understand these things. What happens if we have a record turnout, which looks entirely possible. Jeanne it does look possible. If we are at 100 million now, we would only need 40 million to match where we were in 2016. I am looking at turnout numbers and we remember 1996, we were under 100 million in terms of turnout. In 2000, just over that. There, this is a big turnout for the United States. We would be in the upper 50 , may be lower 60 of voting age population. It speaks to the amount of interest, it speaks to enthusiasm, i also think it speaks to the big issues on the table, mainly as you were just talking to larry sabato about, covid issues of health care also obviously the economy and social unrest and racial tension, all of the things weve been battling the future of the court over the last year. David speculate with me. We are not supposed to, but lets do it for a moment. The complexion of the country is changing. The ethnicity of the country is changing. Overall there is dramatic increase in participation. Could that change the competition the composition of the people who are voting . Jeanne it could come and one of the big things im curious about tonight is what happens in the southern, the reliable republican wall in the south. We have already begun to see that the beginnings of that due to demographic changes, but do we see a break in texas, where some democrats say there is a small chance joe biden could take that. Georgia, we saw the beginnings of that with Stacey Abrams who deserves a lot of credit for democrats in terms of starting to move things. If we see a shift in the south from red to blue or red to pink moving to blue, we know that is all a result of demographic changes in suggests we are in the midst of a realignment period in the United States. David is way too early to declare that, but we should be looking to us to see whether happens or does not happen. You know there was a realignment when the south was always democrat after the civil war were 100 years, and then it switched to republican, it was solid republican. It starts to switch back that to be a profound change in our country for years. Jeanne i was looking back. You look back after 2008 when republicans lost the white house, they wrote a big report we already and they talked about how they have to reach out, particularly to his panics, latinos, africanamericans, changing demographics who are going to make it hard for the party to continue to win if they did not start reaching out. They started to do that, and then in this last election they pulled back. We are starting to see the argument they were making. Demographics have shifted. They have to move if they are going to maintain as a viable, energized Umbrella Party in the United States. They will have to reach out as well. David that is the south, which may well be critical in this election. Lets not leave out my old Stomping Ground of the upper midwest. Wisconsin, pennsylvania. Vertically pennsylvania, which seems to be the jump ball. Jeanne that is why we have seen the campaigns spent so much time there. The home of the constitution. If things go President Trumps way early in the night, if he can hold the sunbelt, it may come down to pennsylvania. As we know from the next question will be when will we get results out of there . It could be several days. As mark mentioned, we could be looking at at least a few days before we get results. Then we could see litigation over those results. If the president is able to hold his 2016 numbers and he does not flip anything from 16 blue to red, then we are looking at pennsylvania. It is unlikely he takes michigan or wisconsin, if you believe the polls. David will be talking about this throughout the evening as rick davis and you and i talk about this. Emphasize the importance of patience. With all of the absentee ballots to be counted, the results might start at one direction and go another direction as more votes are counted. Jeanne absolutely. We all have to be cognizant of what theyre calling a red or blumer roche. We know democrats have benefited from early voting. We suspect republicans will benefit from sameday voting. Depending on what votes the state is counting at what time, you may see Movement Towards joe biden, which then will be offset by people who voted today for trump and vice versa. We do have to be patient, particularly in these battleground states that could decide the race, and we suspect will be pretty close. We just talked yesterday about the pull out of iowa which suggests the president s seven points ahead. There was one last night out of georgia which says the president is four points. Those were just one polls each, but these are tight races all around, certainly within a margin of error. David a lot of suspense i suspect. Great to talk to us always. That is genies a no. She will be with that is jeanne zaino. She will be with us throughout our coverage tonight. We will start at 7 00 eastern. This is bloomberg. David this is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. Markets have been doing their best to figure out the election, and one place weve been seeing interesting moves is the currency market. Lets check in with scarlet fu for a sense of where fx traders are headed. Scarlet restaurant across asset classes. The flight to safety trades are unwinding. The u. S. Dollar following the most since late august, weaker versus all of the g10 currencies and down versus all the major currencies. Performing worst against the currencies like the norwegian krone, aussie dollar. You will notice the relationship between the dollar and stocks, they largely remain there inverse relationship. When the s p 500 increases, the u. S. Dollar has been faltering. The white line is the inverse of the u. S. Bloomberg dollar index. You can see that relationship. Sachs was at goldman on Bloomberg Television earlier and he walked us through what the fx trading desk will focus on this evening as the votes are counted. Initially it will be what happens with the white house. For that, investors will fixate on the chinese yen. U. S. Foreign policy is the domain of the president , not congress. Yuan has benefited from increasing odds of a joe biden presidency. The thinking is a joe biden presidency would mean a return to multilateral trading. As the night continues, the focus will turn to the senate. If the democrats prevail, how does that shake for fiscal stimulus . You will likely see gains in risk currencies, and here we are talking about emergingmarket currencies on bond yields. More spending will lead to a bigger budget deficit and accelerate inflation. I want to leave you on this idea that the long ruble short peso trade that proved popular after President Trumps election in 2016 unwinding quickly. David my favorite trade. Thanks to scarlet fu. Coming up, leon panet