Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Balance Of Power 20240712

White house in the east room. With 400 of his closest friends. Thanks to mary a parker. Emily wilkins is covering the biden campaign. Emily the Vice President began his day in delaware. He visited the grave of his son beau biden. He said his sons passing was part of the reason he decided to launch this third for president. He visited scranton pennsylvania and is now just leaving philadelphia. We are expecting him on the stage in wilmington, delaware. We do not know whether we will be able to have a president ial announcement at that point, but we are expecting joe biden to address the nation. David Emily Wilkins will be with us throughout the evening as well as she covers the Vice President s campaign. The markets have been watching the election closely. We turned to Abigail Doolittle for what they are telling us today. What are they saying. Abigail we have investors interested in stocks. A very big rally on our hands. The s p 500 up 2 , its best day since june. Investors wanting in. Interesting is the fact the volatility index is down, that suggests some investors think we will know who the next president is sooner rather than later. Also supporting the risk on town , we have haven bonds down. Overall investors have a strong risk appetite. Suggesting or supporting the idea there could be a blue wave in place, some investors are saying the move into cyclical sectors we have seen in the materials and industrial sectors out of the technology and discretionary sectors, which are growth er. That supports Vice President joe biden. His policy support those more cyclical and value areas. On the other hand, as you and i have been talking, the s p 500 is trading at a huge range of last three months. Historically when that range is higher, it supports the incumbent winning. The bottom line is the market suggest this president ial race is much narrower than the polls do. Today, the appetite, the move is risk on. David thank you so much. A lot more to talk about with the markets in election as we go forward with Abigail Doolittle. Cristobal is one of the key think crystal ball is one of the key things we follow. We welcome larry sabatino. We have seen your final note before the election. Interesting things. Give us your sense of what the key issues are in the president ial for the moment. President ial, covid is hanging over everything. Clearly it has changed everything for President Trump. Go back to the beginning of the year, before we knew a pandemic was coming, or at least only a handful new. President trump had probably a 5050 or better chance of winning a second term because the economy seemed golden. Most president s who have a good economy are favored for a second term. We all know what has happened since. It is not just the pandemic. I do not think voters would automatically hold a president responsible for that, but they do hold a president responsible, correctly, for the administrations response or lack of one to the pandemic. The judgment has been pretty harsh on President Trump. David as you know, President Trump lost the popular vote four years ago. If you look the ark electoral if you look the Electoral College it was not that close. How many states will Vice President biden have to switch to get the 270 number . They are depends if big states or small states. If he switches florida and texas, game over, assuming he holds Hillary Clinton states. If he takes florida, that alone may be enough to close the election down, although there are couple of paths that would get trump to 278 without florida. If texas to 270 without florida. If texas goes, the game is really over. Texas probably only goes to biden if other states were going to biden as well. Sabatos crystal ball is saying florida is leaning republican. Georgia you think is leaning to the democrats. The last time they voted for a democrat for president was 1992, William Jefferson clinton. Larry that is absolutely correct. There been a lot of demographic changes in georgia, and those changes have switched other states in other parts of the country. Colorado and virginia being two obvious examples. You have to keep a close watch on how the population is changing. His georgia guaranteed to go to biden . No. It is a coin flip. The reason we gave florida to trumps because it is tied in the polling averages. Joe biden is up a little bit in florida. Trump because the last few elections republicans have outperformed their polls and out organize the democrats. We have not seen that a lot has changed. Georgia is different. North carolina is a different case. Every state is its own universe. At at the same david the same time, if you Pay Attention to what the candidates have done, you conclude pennsylvania is key. In your note, you termed it the shaky asked. What is going on in that state . Larry it is competitive. It does not appear to be doing what pennsylvania did last time, because remember Hillary Clinton lost last time, not as much because the rural turnout was so high or the percentage for trump was so high, though it was, it is because the urban turnout in philadelphia and elsewhere in pennsylvania was limited. It was much lower than expected. There was not that much enthusiasm for clinton, and some constituency groups were not that crazy about her. David this is an unprecedented election in so many ways. Number a pandemic, the of early voters is over 100 million americans. Does that make you doubt how reliable the polls are . Could this be a sport case . Larry after 2016 i would not say i have an excess of confidence in the polls, early vote or no early vote. I think the polling has improved a lot. A lot of changes have been made because everybody was embarrassed, not by the National Polling averages, but specific swing states that did not go according to polling plans. Things have improved, it does not mean they are perfect, it does not mean they cannot be pulled again, but we have looked more broadly than pulling, we have looked at analytics and demographics and also the judgment of people who have been on the ground in those states for 20, 30, 40 years. Sometimes their judgment is better than the polling. David the senate is up for grabs. Vice seats they need if President Biden becomes president , four if President Trump is reelected to switch the democrats. What are the key issues . Larry if trump wins reelection i doubt the democrats will take the senate. The assumption is joe biden would have to win and therefore the democrats need three net changes. The democrats are losing and will lose alabama. That is where they need four. Left over, losing alabama. I think they have arizona, that is a switch. I think the democrats have colorado. I think they probably will have votes are the allocated for other candidates. They have ranked choice voting. This is a new experiment and will probably help the democratic nominee in maine. That is three. Where does the fourth one come from . Could be North Carolina. Despite a sex scandal. You hadmber a time when a scandal you are out. Not anymore. David [laughter] that is for sure. In georgia, the democrats have two shots. Larry they have two shots except they may not get them until january. Democrats will lead one of the races, they may lead both of the races, but in georgia, they require 50 plus one, a clear majority, in order to win the seat outright on election day. This means a lot of their races go ridiculously long. Imagine having negative ads during the christmas season. That is what they will have with two senate seats up in early january. David finally, my home state, michigan. More interesting senate race than some people thought it would be. Larry it is competitive. If trump were to pull an upset in michigan the way he did four years ago, i would almost expect the republican nominee, who is also africanamerican, to win the seat, running against a freshman democrat, gary peters, who does not have the profile most senators have. Relative unknown even though he is the incumbent. As long as joe biden wins, i think biden will pull peters across the finish line. David it does strike me this is another election for vets. We have it in arizona, we have in kentucky, we have in michigan. A lot of distinguish former officers. Larry yes. We could do a lot worse. That is probably a good thing. In arizona, this is actually for the john mccain seed. There has been a seat warmer running for the seat as a republican nominee, but this is john mccains seat. Both of them are military, both republican and democrat have served in the military. David certain justice. Both aviators. Thank you so much to larry sabato. Director of the center for politics at the university of virginia. Coming up, the polls have had their say, the candidates have had theirs as well. Now is up to the voters. We turn to our bloomberg political contributor jeanne zaino. As we go out for a television audience, we are looking at voters in San Francisco in line. David this is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. We turn to Mark Crumpton for first word news. Mark we are here. Americans turned out in huge numbers to cast their ballots on this election day the elections project says more than 100 million americans have already voted. By the time polls close tonight, the department of Homeland Security estimates that number will be 150 million. Americans may not know who will be sworn in as president next january for days or weeks. If a tight race in battleground states prompts special challenges over late arriving ballots. They may have tried, but no foreign hackers successfully meddled in the 2020 elections here in the United States. That from acting Homeland Security secretary chad wolf. He says officials remain on high alert for any interference by foreign actors, including russia, china, and iran. President trump has repeatedly challenge the u. S. Intelligence communitys findings that russia tried to influence the 2016 election in his favor. Retailers are bracing for violence in the wake of the election. Store owners in manhattan, washington, and other cities have boarded up their windows. In beverly hills, police are closing the famed rodeo drive today and tomorrow. In the u. K. , officials are planning to raise the countrys threat level to severe, the second highest level. That follows terrorist attacks in france and austria. A level of severe means officials believe an attack is highly likely. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. I am Mark Crumpton. This is bloomberg. David . Said, nearly 100 million americans have already voted in this years election. Now many who do not vote early are showing up at polling places around the country. What does voter turnout tell us about the election. We turn to jeanne zaino, professor of Political Science at ionia college. You understand these things. What happens if we have a record turnout, which looks entirely possible. Jeanne it does look possible. If we are at 100 million now, we would only need 40 million to match where we were in 2016. I am looking at turnout numbers and we remember 1996, we were under 100 million in terms of turnout. In 2000, just over that. There, this is a big turnout for the United States. We would be in the upper 50 , may be lower 60 of voting age population. It speaks to the amount of interest, it speaks to enthusiasm, i also think it speaks to the big issues on the table, mainly as you were just talking to larry sabato about, covid issues of health care also obviously the economy and social unrest and racial tension, all of the things weve been battling the future of the court over the last year. David speculate with me. We are not supposed to, but lets do it for a moment. The complexion of the country is changing. The ethnicity of the country is changing. Overall there is dramatic increase in participation. Could that change the competition the composition of the people who are voting . Jeanne it could come and one of the big things im curious about tonight is what happens in the southern, the reliable republican wall in the south. We have already begun to see that the beginnings of that due to demographic changes, but do we see a break in texas, where some democrats say there is a small chance joe biden could take that. Georgia, we saw the beginnings of that with Stacey Abrams who deserves a lot of credit for democrats in terms of starting to move things. If we see a shift in the south from red to blue or red to pink moving to blue, we know that is all a result of demographic changes in suggests we are in the midst of a realignment period in the United States. David is way too early to declare that, but we should be looking to us to see whether happens or does not happen. You know there was a realignment when the south was always democrat after the civil war were 100 years, and then it switched to republican, it was solid republican. It starts to switch back that to be a profound change in our country for years. Jeanne i was looking back. You look back after 2008 when republicans lost the white house, they wrote a big report we already and they talked about how they have to reach out, particularly to his panics, latinos, africanamericans, changing demographics who are going to make it hard for the party to continue to win if they did not start reaching out. They started to do that, and then in this last election they pulled back. We are starting to see the argument they were making. Demographics have shifted. They have to move if they are going to maintain as a viable, energized Umbrella Party in the United States. They will have to reach out as well. David that is the south, which may well be critical in this election. Lets not leave out my old Stomping Ground of the upper midwest. Wisconsin, pennsylvania. Vertically pennsylvania, which seems to be the jump ball. Jeanne that is why we have seen the campaigns spent so much time there. The home of the constitution. If things go President Trumps way early in the night, if he can hold the sunbelt, it may come down to pennsylvania. As we know from the next question will be when will we get results out of there . It could be several days. As mark mentioned, we could be looking at at least a few days before we get results. Then we could see litigation over those results. If the president is able to hold his 2016 numbers and he does not flip anything from 16 blue to red, then we are looking at pennsylvania. It is unlikely he takes michigan or wisconsin, if you believe the polls. David will be talking about this throughout the evening as rick davis and you and i talk about this. Emphasize the importance of patience. With all of the absentee ballots to be counted, the results might start at one direction and go another direction as more votes are counted. Jeanne absolutely. We all have to be cognizant of what theyre calling a red or blumer roche. We know democrats have benefited from early voting. We suspect republicans will benefit from sameday voting. Depending on what votes the state is counting at what time, you may see Movement Towards joe biden, which then will be offset by people who voted today for trump and vice versa. We do have to be patient, particularly in these battleground states that could decide the race, and we suspect will be pretty close. We just talked yesterday about the pull out of iowa which suggests the president s seven points ahead. There was one last night out of georgia which says the president is four points. Those were just one polls each, but these are tight races all around, certainly within a margin of error. David a lot of suspense i suspect. Great to talk to us always. That is genies a no. She will be with that is jeanne zaino. She will be with us throughout our coverage tonight. We will start at 7 00 eastern. This is bloomberg. David this is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. Markets have been doing their best to figure out the election, and one place weve been seeing interesting moves is the currency market. Lets check in with scarlet fu for a sense of where fx traders are headed. Scarlet restaurant across asset classes. The flight to safety trades are unwinding. The u. S. Dollar following the most since late august, weaker versus all of the g10 currencies and down versus all the major currencies. Performing worst against the currencies like the norwegian krone, aussie dollar. You will notice the relationship between the dollar and stocks, they largely remain there inverse relationship. When the s p 500 increases, the u. S. Dollar has been faltering. The white line is the inverse of the u. S. Bloomberg dollar index. You can see that relationship. Sachs was at goldman on Bloomberg Television earlier and he walked us through what the fx trading desk will focus on this evening as the votes are counted. Initially it will be what happens with the white house. For that, investors will fixate on the chinese yen. U. S. Foreign policy is the domain of the president , not congress. Yuan has benefited from increasing odds of a joe biden presidency. The thinking is a joe biden presidency would mean a return to multilateral trading. As the night continues, the focus will turn to the senate. If the democrats prevail, how does that shake for fiscal stimulus . You will likely see gains in risk currencies, and here we are talking about emergingmarket currencies on bond yields. More spending will lead to a bigger budget deficit and accelerate inflation. I want to leave you on this idea that the long ruble short peso trade that proved popular after President Trumps election in 2016 unwinding quickly. David my favorite trade. Thanks to scarlet fu. Coming up, leon panetta, former secretary of defense, on Election Security on this election day. This is bloomberg. Are you frustrated with your weight and health . 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David this is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. Im david westin. Bloomberg first word news, we go to Mark Crumpton. Mark President Trump is pledging a legal fight over vote counting that drags on after the polls close. All but guaranteeing an ongoing struggle if the election result is close. A legal battle could center on the commonwealth of pennsylvania, a crucial swing state republicans have filed a lawsuit near philadelphia alleging officials there illegally allowed absentee and mailin ballots to be counted before election day. Battles are also unfolding and several other key states including wisconsin. Over the weekend, mr. Trump said as soon as the election is over we are going in with our lawyers. Scranton,returns to pennsylvania, where he visited his home and made another appeal to workingclass voters. He said he wants to restore basic decency and honor and unite the country which has fractured under the trump administration. German officials are cautiously optimistic that the coronavirus pandemic is beginning to ease. Officials say the curve is flattening somewhat but it is too early to see if there was a turning point. Germany reported more than 15,000 new cases today, down slightly from record highs in the past week. Jinping, president xi says the economy can double in size by 2035. He also told the communist Party Central committee that the country can reach high income status in the next five years. The party released a framework of its new fiveyear plan focusing on selfreliance and technology boosting consumption and pursuing quality growth. U. K. , a funde manager is stepping down from running his firm. The news came out in the last few minutes. Will focus david an election with this much anxiety about the process itself with lawsuits filed and questions raised even by the incumbent president himself. We welcome one of the most experienced government officials to ever serve. Leon panetta was chief of staff to president clinton and cia director under president clinton and obama. Thank you for joining us. I cannot think of anyone that i would rather talk to on a day like today. I want to talk about a piece that you wrote with chuck hagel about Election Security. Votersf quote from it, across the political spectrum must have faith in our democratic system and have faith that the winter one without Election Fraud or foul play. What is special about this election that we are so concerned about that question . Leon it is obvious a lot of concerns have been raised about the election, whether it would be free and fair, whether there would be enough patients for all of the votes to be counted beience for all the votes to counted, whether it would be peaceful. As you heard, the president and others are already deploying lawyers. There is a lot of concern about ultimately whether or not this country can conduct a free and Fair Election and be able to determine a winner in the president ial race. I am confident that weekend, i really am. Our state officials know their job, i have great confidence in their ability to be able to count votes, and to do it accurately. David we do have a remarkable situation with over 100 million americans already loading early in person or by absentee ballot. Does that raise the risk at all of the security of the election . Think all of us ought to be very proud of the country where 150 Million People go to the polls to cast their vote. That goes to the very heart of what our democracy is all about. Can we handle that volume . I think we can. Mainly because these data officials have committed themselves to making sure every vote counts. I think they will in this case. Probably the most important thing that will be required is patience, to allow the state officials to conduct these to get antience accurate vote count that can determine who the winner is, and patience to allow our system of voting to be able to work effectively. I think it can. But we are going to have to be patient as these votes are counted. David part of who you are talking to is the media, i suspect. There was a lot of concern about foreign interference in our election, particularly by the russians. We dont necessarily hear as much about that today. Have we address that problem, isnt as big a problem as it was four years ago . Leon no question we are doing more to defend against the actions of the russians to interfere in our election process. We have learned a lot about how they operate, we have learned a lot about how to check them. The most important thing is and intelligence has confirmed this that there is any indication that they have made their way into our election structure. The greatest area of concern with regard to foreign interference. They will continue to use social media, try to deploy various comments that will try to undermine trust in the Election Results, but i think the american people, and our election officials, have learned to cope with that. I am hopeful that we can get through this election and be able to determine a winner, and where our democracy is heading in the future. David as i said, i cannot think of many former officials that had the experience that you had in the legislative and executive branch. Take us after november 3, there will be a decision one way or the other. What happens at the white house . What happens with the transition , for the incumbent preparing for the second four years, or for a new president . Leon theres a lot of work that needs to be done in either case. Incumbent president , obviously, you have a team in place, you assume you would have begun planning for the goals that you will try to achieve in a second term. I have been there, worked with president clinton at the time. We basically laid out a whole agenda for the second term that had to be implemented. I would hope this president would do the same. For a new president , it is a bigger challenge, because you have to put together a team, your white house team, you have to assemble your cabinet, and at the same time, you have to prepare the policy initiatives that you are going to initiate as soon as you her inaugurated president of the United States. Its a much bigger challenge but one that we have been through in the past, and im sure that we can go through again in the present. David for our Radio Audience to explain what is happening on tv, we have been sharing pictures of leonukee alongside panetta. That is what you are looking at. In the sunshine, i must say. Sec. Pennetta, lets assume for the moment it is a President Biden. What would you recommend he put as number one on his agenda to accomplish in his term . Leon if it is a President Biden, it will be for one reason and one reason only, the situation of covid19 and the failure to deal with this terrible pandemic. I dont think there is any question that his first hasiative, first objective got to be to show that he is getting control of the pandemic. And probably providing the necessary aid to try and help those who have been impacted. It is too bad the congress was unable to pass a package. We need something to provide assistance to those unemployed, whose Small Businesses and others have been affected by this. I think his first objective is to get control of the pandemic and provide an eight package to the country. David you were the director of cia as well as secretary of defense. Tell us how important our relationships are with the rest of the road when there is a transition of presidency. For example, asia, a lot of markets are reporting that apparently think it will be easier on china to have a President Biden. Is that accurate . Leon not necessarily. We haven has said that a competitive relationship with china, and we do, one that will demand a lot of toughness on our part in dealing with them. One thing you can be assured of, and this is comforting to a lot of countries abroad, is that joe biden will return this country to an international approach that has the United States being a world leader. We are not going to withdraw from leadership in the world, we are not going to walk away from our alliances. We are going to build alliances and stress leadership in the world. Those are things that the rest of the world is anxious to get. David finally, how quickly can a government turn as a practical matter . Not just the president or the few hundredths that he brings with him, there is a huge apparatus. Does the government turn quickly . Leon not really. [laughter] it will take a while to get your team in place, to begin to move the policies you want to move. Every president is frustrated by that but it is a reality, it takes time. A lot depends on the willingness of the congress to be able to work with the president. One thing about joe biden is he is a legislator. Somebody who is believed to work with republicans and democrats. That is a good sign. But we are facing an awful lot of crises in this country between the pandemic, recession, the other problems that we are confronting as a society. It will take time to be able to direct this country in a way that allows us to take on these crises and try to get ahead of them, rather than behind. David thank you so much for being with us. That is leon panetta, the former white house chief of staff, former secretary of defense. Coming up, a view of the election from the republican side of the aisle with sarah chambers. This is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. David this is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. Im david westin. President trump touts his four years of leadership, what is done for the american economy, american business, and the american worker. Of the who leads an organization for pragmatic republican government. Sarah chamberlain is the head of the republican main street partnership. Four years ago, President Trump one, lost the popular vote, but won the Electoral College by a large margin. How is it different than four years ago . Sarah drill to be black with you back with you. Thrilled to be back with you. Four years ago, people enjoy the process, but today they just want it to be over. They want the chaos to end. They just cannot stand all of this, the conflict they have enough of it with covid, with their kids at home. I have two of my daughters upstairs going to school. End. Just want this to i have never seen it like that in an election cycle. David you must find a fair amount of irony in the sense of what you said. The preas arod a 45 job approval rating, but 61 of the people told gallup they think they are better off than four years ago. It is hard to square those two. Sarah it is impossible but how i do it, people like his policies, and they are better off. The tax cuts, all that he did prior to covid19, but they dont care for the man. I traveled the country before covid, now i do it online, and talking to suburban people,ainly women, husbands as well and they are just tired of his tweeting. David if there are suburban women frustrated, do they sit at home or vote for joe biden . Sarah they are voting by mail. They think the system will work just fine. But they are voting, they are not sitting out. David lets assume President Trump is reelected. You agree with a number of his policies, many of his policies. What would you hope a President Trump would do in his second four years . Sarah the first thing is i would ask him to take covid seriously, ask people to wear a mask. I know you cannot mandate that legally but we have to do something. All the experts say it will get worse around thanksgiving, we are concerned our kids will maybe have another year at home. We have to do this. Homeshe chaos going on in with us trying to work with our kids in school, they are not seeing their friends, that is the number one issue that i wish he would just buckle down and get the country to do the masks. I know that he is working on getting the vaccinations as soon as possible, but that would be the biggest issue. Then people can feel free to go out and spend money in businesses, go back to work, but we have to have something. We need masks. We need to make it cool and ok to wear masks. David as you talk to the suburban women around the country and they are frustrated being cooped up, and your point is so powerful with children trying to learn from home, not an ideal situation, especially the younger kids. Do they blame the people saying they should stay home, or the people who have not figured out how to fix this problem . Sarah a combination of both. What they are telling me is they are blaming the people who are not wear masks. They dont enjoy wear masks either, i dont either. But we want to protect each other, we have to start to wear masks. I have had women tell me that there husbands have almost gotten in fights because they are wear masks and others around them are not. They ask why not and it almost comes to blows. We have to stop politicizing mask wearing and make it medical. David what do you put the onset of bring the country back wins . Er, whoever we can all agree there are deep divisions, and they are personal divisions. They show up in unfortunate and ugly ways. Sarah i think we can come back together, the country has been through a lot prior to all of this. Togetherome back because we are the United States of america. David what do you think about the senate . Do you have a view about what happens . They need three or four seats for that to go to the democrats. Sarah i would have told you a few weeks ago that the senate was going to be lost, but North Carolina is interesting. I have family down there and i think tillis could hold onto the seat, it could be the difference in maintaining control of the senate. The democrats, stupid unforced error, frankly. David always a treat to talk to you, the president and ceo of republican main street partnership, sarah chamberlain. Coming up, we will look at the critical state of pennsylvania with our reporter there. This is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. Radio. David this is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. Im david westin. Pennsylvania may well end up being key to this election. Both President Trump and Vice President biden have spent much of the stretch in the keystone state. Joe biden finish the Campaign Last night where he started in Kamala Harrise headlined a rally in philadelphia. Mark niquette joins us from the city of brotherly love outside of the Philadelphia Convention center. I understand it, the former Vice President showed up today. Yes, he was in philadelphia and scranton, where he spent part of his childhood. David give us a sense of pennsylvania. Everyone agrees it is key but everyone has a tough time getting their arms around what is happening in the state. Mark pennsylvania it could come down to pennsylvania in the president ial race. 538 does this analysis where they calculate which state has the highest chance of being the Tipping Point state that a candidate needs to get to 270 electoral votes. Pennsylvania ranks highest by far among all the other states. It is also a state that just started this year with mailin ballot aning. Before you had to have an excuse. They are implementing this new system of Voting Machines during a pandemic, so we have the uncertainty of what impact the mailin ballots will have, and the additional complication that we will not get final results probably out of pennsylvania tonight. Because of all of these new mailin ballots coming in, pennsylvanias law does not allow clerks to start counting until 7 00 a. M. Today, so a guarantee that there will be uncounted ballots to count after the election and could be needed to determine who won the race. It could be a long couple of days in pennsylvania to get the outcome of the president ial race to know who won nationally. David to add to the complication, there was a dispute about whether ballots postmarked by november 3 could be counted. The court says that you can count them for three days, although they are segregating the ballots, so there could be a fight down the road about whether they are counted or not. Ofk that is another pool uncounted ballots that could be the source of litigation. In fact, it already is. The state Supreme Court ruled those ballots could be accepted within three days after the election, if they were mailed before the polls closed. Ed to block that extension. Notu. S. Supreme court ruled to stay the extension but sort of left the door open that the extension could be challenged on its merits. It is hanging out there is a possibility that we could see the Supreme Court taking up whether these ballots that are cast, mail before the election and arrive after can be counted. We dont know at this point how many of those ballots there will be, but the secretary of the commonwealth has ordered those lets to be segregated, counted separately. At least we will have an idea of how many votes are there, and if it matters, if the margin is small enough that these ballots could be terminated if. David do we have a sense of how many mailin ballots have been received . We know in texas, they received more than they had total votes last time. Pennsylvania, as of this morning, they received more than 2. 5 million, which is smaller than texas, but enormous for pennsylvania. Election, under the old system where you needed a absenteeto have an ballot, only about 200 50,000. It has just overwhelmed the system. Of cut outa has sort a lot. You have this provision about not being able to count until election days. Most states gave multiple days before the election so you are not in this situation of not having complete results on election night. There was a big fight here in the commonwealth before the election, where republicans and democrats could not agree on a deal to allow more time. David it is very complicated, so im glad that you are there to report on it. Thank you. Mark will be a part of our full election coverage starting tonight at 7 00. We will be talking to Liz Ann Saunders and congresswoman Debbie Wasserman schultz. This is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. I feel like were forgetting something. Let me check. Xfinity home gives you peace of mind from anywhere with professionally monitored Home Security built around you. No, i think were good. Good. So when youre away, you dont have to worry. The tent. We forgot. The tent. Except about that. Xfinity home. Simple. Easy. Awesome. Hey look, i found the tent get xfinity home with no Term Contract required. Click or call today. David from bloomberg World Headquarters in new york to our tv and Radio Audiences worldwide, im david westin. Welcome to the second hour of balance of power. Starts election day we with our washington reporter Laura Davidson to bring us uptodate on the senate races as polls are opening across the nation. We are fixated on the presidency but the senate may hang in the balance as well. Laura in terms of what it would mean going forward, the senate is no small thing. 14 races are hotly contested. The democrats have the edge and about 12 of them. That is good news for joe biden. If he has a chance to win, he would have the chance to have a Democratic Senate in place. If Mitch Mcconnell and the republicans are still there, all of his proposals would not go anywhere. But if things change, we could see infrastructure, health care spending. There is a lot of interesting states. All the same states we are talking about in terms of the president ial election. Georgia is one of the most interesting because there are two open seats there. That would be a big shift if georgia had one or two Democratic Senators from the state. David your job is not to project, but what can you report from the democratic side . Which do they hope to take . Essentially, they need three. As a practical matter, they probably will not be able to take the senate if they dont have joe biden when the presidency. Laura they could need as many likely toug jones is lose. The polls dont look great for him. Looking at these races in georgia, North Carolina, arizona, and maine. Susan collins, the polls have not been very optimistic on her outlook. There are a couple of easy ones, democrats have found some good candidates that they think will do well against some republicans that are largely unpopular in their state. Of maine, Martha Mcsally in arizona, and North Carolina, an interesting race. It has been purple for a while, democrats have not been able to get the edge there, but thom tillis has been close with his opponent cunningham, although cunningham has had some personal issues, and affair leaked. Democrats have consistently outrepublicans but funded republicans but the polls have been closer. David thank you for that, Laura Davidson. Ricky davis has seen his own fair share of his own political campaigns. He is now a partner at Stone Court Capital and a political contributor to bloomberg. Give us your analysis of where we are. With 100 Million People already voted, i think this will turn out to be one of the great historic turnout elections of the century. Its been 100 years since we crossed anywhere near the 70 turnout arc. Mark. It is built into the cards today to get there with this massive early vote. What goes along with that early vote is how did the pandemic affect the selection this election . We have seen how it affected the campaigning, with joe biden doing socially distanced campaigning, donald trump coming down with covid himself. Voters . Will that impact the voters will give us a sense in that direction by close of business today. David give us a sense as a practical matter. If we can get a reasonably early answer, lets say 1 00 a. M. , is that most likely to be bad news president . That is to say it, if it is going to be decided, does it go one way . Rick early decisions are bad for the president. If the president is losing states like carolina and florida, we have talked about pennsylvania hard to know whether we will know about that early. There may be some surprises like in iowa. Before we get to the center of the country, if there are upsets in other words, if donald trump starts losing states that he won in 2016, it could be a harbinger for what happens next. I would say by the time we get to the west, if arizona flips and becomes a state that votes for the democrat for the first would be a1992, that death knell for donald trump. David to explain to our tv audience, they are watching live shots of President Trump i believe at the rnc headquarters in arlington, giving some remarks. This was his only trip today. We saw Vice President biden going to scranton and philadelphia. President trump giving some remarks to his troops, as it were, in arlington. What are you looking at for the most part right now . Rick there is not much to look at. While people vote, you dont get realtime information from the counties on what is reporting. I have probably 20 counties around the country in battleground states that i want to see what kind of votes are. Oming out of there i spent a lot of time looking at their early vote totals, what the demographics are around them. I do think it is showing one thing to me today that could be , advantage for joe biden in some places, and that is there are people voting in this election as part of this early vote who have not been to the polls in eight years. These are fresh voters. They are not swing voters, just new voters. New voters tend to be Younger Voters, in other words, people who dont participate often, they make up some of this 100 million that has already voted, and voters of color. Hispanic, asian, african americans. Those two demographic groups would tend to vote democratic, joe biden. If they have a significant presence in some of these counties in the battleground states, they could make some of these states turn blue that otherwise might be read. David it is early going and we will say this all throughout the night, we have to be patient, cannot draw on too many conclusions. But pickup on when you have record turnout, and then you have particularly certain states that are changing demographically. You know arizona. Very changing demographically. Georgia is changing, North Carolina is changing. As a practical matter, as you add more young people and people of color, is that a challenge for the Republican Party perhaps more than the Democratic Party . So a i think even more challenge for the donald trump Republican Party. We have all been through eras ronald ragan had the big tent theory, welcoming anyone in who would support his philosophies. Beend trumps support has wildly different. He has lambasted urban areas, he has taken shots in the cultural insensitivity category. The party itself has really focused their recruitment efforts in rural, white america, not these groups that you are talking about. Sure, maybe they will boost up the rural white vote in these key states that helped donald trump win in 2016, but they are not being competitive because they are not allowing themselves to recruit hispanics and people of color in states like you just talked about, where the population is changing. David what about the latino vote . Your old boss and friend john mccain was out front on this in terms of the republicans appealing to the latino vote. Could there be a surprise afoot here . We hear reports that the Latino Community thinks about jobs, and trump may not be bad about that, and then there is the socialist accusation coming out of the perhaps cuban population in miami. Rick the hispanic population, like many of these, are not homogeneous. When you described the cubans in south florida, they dont vote the same way that Puerto Ricans in new york do, Puerto Ricans in new york dont vote the same way that mexicans in arizona and new mexico do, and california. It is hard to lump them into one category. That being said, john mccain always felt that the Republican Party was the right place for hispanic voters because they are socially conservative, vastly majority catholic and prolife, Business Owners by a large percentage, which gives them some sensitivity to economic issues. That is part of the motivation he always had to solve these issues in republican administrations around immigration reform. That being said, it didnt happen. It has been an easy place for democrats to recruit candidates and voters. It will be interesting to see whether or not trump can fashion together anticastro cubans in herida, and time and do venezuelans antimaduro hispanics in the state to his own sign. David thank you so much to rick davis. He will be joining me again tonight to kick of our coverage at 7 00. Coming up, helping investors get a read on what this election could mean for business and the economy. We are joined by the Charles Schwab chief investment strategist liz ann sonders. This is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. Dio. David this is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. Im david westin. Havey and debt markets been trying to position themselves for what comes after the election. To give us a sense of where they are at the moment is Abigail Doolittle. Abigail we are looking at a risk on tone on election day. The bulls are rushing in as far as stocks. The s p 500 up 2 , the best day since june. The nasdaq 100 is higher. After two down weeks, we have two big updates. This is similar to 2016. Also, the vix is down a little bit today. Some may think this suggests we know who the next president could be sooner rather than later. That curve has been rising on uncertainty but today is subdued. Also the dollar is down, suggesting perhaps that there is a blue wave is issued in the markets. If we look at the yield curve, the 2 30 yield curve, it is deepening. Athas been at levels it was at the end of 2018. The idea is that rising inflation could come if more stimulus happens, if there is a perhapse paving also supporting the idea that we are seeing a blue wave, sector rotation. We had a move into the cyclical and value sectors, out of growth and some of the momentum sectors such as technology and discretionary, which have been at the bottom the last five days. ,aterials and industrials investors have been going in strongly. However, a ton of uncertainty out there. The s p 500 over the last three months stuck in a range between 3200 and not quite 3600. This signals a ton of uncertainty among investors not just around the election, but lets remember the virus situation. Historically, over the three months into the election, if the s p is higher, that tends to support the incumbent. That is the case here for the s p 500. Biggest busiest message that we have is a lot of mixed messages. The race could be much narrower than what the polls are suggesting. David just what we needed, a narrower election than we thought. Sooner or later, we will know the results of the election, but investors want to yacht the next few days to anticipate where the economy is headed and where investments will do better or less well in the world we find after november 3. No one does that better than liz ann sonders, chief investment strategist for Charles Schwab. Before we go forward into what is coming next, expand where we are right now. Equities are pulling back. We had a good day but equities are pulling back. Liz ann they have. I think but we have seen in the last couple of weeks is not all that different from the alltime highs that we saw in september. A lot of narratives at play as to what caused that pullback in september and then the most recent pullback culminating last week, being the worst since march. A lot of those are the traditional catalyst over causes. May be semantics, but it is important to talk about them as catalysts. Beasley, uncertainty with the election, the virus, the surgeon cases. What was uncertainty in september is now simple knowledge, we are not getting the Fiscal Relief package. There were catalysts for an environment to become speculatively overly optimistic. It was that sentiment environment that triggered the corrective base in september, and then the more recent one. What happens over the course of those few days, weeks, you get the market into a shortterm oversold, and that sets up possibility of a bounce, even if there is no obvious catalyst for it. The strength over the last couple of days may tie in more with the weakness that preceded then anyhe other of these other catalysts. It is kind of a funky trading day. Financials at the top of the leaderboard but energy and materials at the bottom. It is not really a defensive to cyclical. Ofust think there is a lot rotation happening, turning happening, until we have a sense of what happens today. David lets talk about that rotation. We have what you call the big five. Apple, microsoft, amazon, google, facebook. They had been leading the way up, but now they are leading the way down. A rolling daily basis, the spread between the big five and the other 495 within the s p, tied to the same day was at the point where not only did we have the major indices hitting alltime highs, but it was the widest spread of outperformance. Since which time we now have about 700 basis points of underperformance of the big five. What you have seen is this rotational churning. The need for the market to correct the valuation excess associated with that small subset of names. Not just those five but a small subset. It has been happening in the context of a rotation, not necessarily correcting those excesses and the bottom falls out, which is what happened in 2000. That is indicative of this speculative excess i talk about, not just being concentrated in a small subset of names, but concentrated in the cohort of newly minted day traders, witnessed in names like this, and in the options market, more than so than the speculative excess across the board. I think that has been the saving grace. David you mentioned uncertainty about the election. We all have that right now. It strikes me that that could affect two of the three factors that could be dampening the enthusiasm. Who is the president but also new stimulus. Who is elected and who is in the senate could affect that. As an investor, how do you plan for that . How big of a difference is there between the twoforks in the road . Next fiscalhink the relief package is coming regardless of the outcome. The details within will differ, of course, depending on the election outcome, and the timing is likely to differ depending on the outlook. The issue between now and then and we dont know when then is is what happens to the economy driven by the virus. Even absent any kind of lockdown, what we see in the Economic Data is that human beings and Small Businesses still make decisions. I believe we have not finished building the bridge to get the economy across the chasm created by the virus. That is what is important, particularly the labor market indicators that we will be getting, as to how quickly we need that Fiscal Relief. I think we will hear more about that from powell on thursday after the fed meets within the press conference. Especially if there is an actual election victor, to get on the ball, to get more of this Fiscal Relief. David always a treat to have you on, liz ann sonders. This is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. David this is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. Im david westin. We are going to turn to Mark Crumpton first word news. Mark there has been speculation that President Trump might declare victory tonight whether won. T he has actually the president tells fox news there is no reason to play games about declaring that he has won. He says he will only declare victory if he has won, and he things he is winning in pennsylvania, florida, and texas. First Lady Melania Trump has cast her vote, stopping by in palm beach, florida close to the maralago resort. Asked why she did not vote with her husband last week, she told reporters, it is election day, today. Nted to vote the first lady was the only person at the polling site at the time who was not wearing a mask. States are prepared to call out the National Guard if needed keep the peace as Election Results begin to come in this evening. Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker has ordered 1000 members of the guard to be on standby. National guard troops will also be on standby in case there is more violence in portland, oregon. 10 states already have guard members handling cybersecurity and routine election tasks. A number of deaths linked to sovid19 in england and wale rose 46 in the week ending october 23. The numbers show how the disease was accelerating before the governments decision to impose a partial lockdown. Covid debts amounted for more than 9 of fatalities in the region during the week. Global news 24 hours a day, onair, and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Im Mark Crumpton. This is bloomberg. Thank you. Up next, we will talk to pollster john zogby about his take on the election. How confident are we in the polls . We have seen them be wrong in the past. At the same time could we see more young people showing up to vote and we have ever seen before . He recently did an Extensive Survey for forbes, and he has come up with some interesting conclusions about young people and their participation in the political process. That is coming up next on balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. When you switch to xfinity mobile, youre choosing to get connected to the most Reliable Network nationwide, now with 5g included. Discover how to save up to 400 a year with shared data starting at 15 a month, or get the lowest price for one line of unlimited. Come into your local xfinity store to make the most of your mobile experience. You can shop the latest phones, bring your own device, or trade in for extra savings. Thats simple, easy, awesome. Visit your local xfinity store today to ask, shop, discover the latest on xfinity mobile. I hope my insurance pays for it. Can you tell me how much this will be . [cashier] 67. Sorry. Wait, have you heard about goodrx . Goodrx finds free coupons to help you save up to 80 on your prescriptions. Wow, i had no idea. [announcer] goodrx, stop paying too much for your prescriptions. David this is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. Im david westin. Never have been as many as polls done for any election in history. When you have a lot of polls, that means you have a fair amount of variation. Joining me now is john zogby. He started his first paul lang co. In 1984 and has since worked with just about every news agency in the country. As you go into this election day, what are you looking at, where are you nervous about what the polls are telling us . John we dont know who is voting today. According to the polls, there is a huge red wave coming. Trump supporters will come out big time. It all depends on whether there is enough of them to offset what has been an unprecedented, massive early voter turnout. Polling thatmy among those early voters, they have a 17point advantage for joe biden, and they are representing almost two thirds of the expected total of votes. Donald trump has to win very big today to offset what has been the early voting disadvantage to him. David it may be too early to draw larger conclusions, but i wonder, if we have a record turnout, and people are talking about perhaps acer set percentage as high as the last 100 years, might that change the complexion, the demographics of who is voting . The country is changing, as you look at younger generations, you had more people of color. Barack obama ushered in a new era of younger people voting, and of course, younger people at that point in time were about 60 white, 40 nonwhite. We are looking at a situation today where 18 to 29yearolds have an even larger percentage of nonwhite voters emily tilting democrat, and therefore, those Younger Voters in total tend to be democrat. Seeingection, we are lots of young people out there, lots of people of color out there voting. This is what the future of the United States will be. David talk about those Younger Voters. You did an Extensive Survey recently on the younger generation. What have you learned that we should know that might surprise us . Dontwe know that they distrust government. They want the government to do good things. We know that they are driving the issue of Race Relations to the forefront in this campaign. Unlike the kids of the 1960s, like myself, who marched for civil rights, we marched for them. These kids are marching for each other. This is the least racial divide of any age cohort we have ever had. In addition to that, they bring the issue of Climate Change into the top six issues in the campaign, simply by virtue of the fact that it is the number to issue after the economy for young people alone. The economy, Climate Change, and Racial Justice all up there among top issues for young people. David i read a piece in the wall street journal today suggesting why the polls may all be wrong. It suggested a couple of things. Nd tor one, polls te undercount white males who dont have a college education, in part because a lot is done by cell phone and they are not going to answer a call if they dont know who it is. It also may be under anticipating the extent to which black voters will vote for President Trump. Enough of a difference from last time to make the polls skew. Have been researching and conducting online polls for 22 years now. Clearly, the landline telephone, cell phone are becoming more and more obsolete as research tools. That is why when we do our online polls, i dont see any problem getting white males, young black males, people of color. Yes, there will always be a slight underrepresentation of some of those groups, but the kind of representation large enough that we can apply and adjust a weight to them. I think some pollsters will be embarrassed because they did miss some of these key demographics. I dont feel like we have. Frankly, there are young black males who are supporting donald is lifting upt his potential among black voters in general a little bit in this race. David what about latino voters . John the same sort of thing. Young latino males, for a variety of cultural and ideological reasons, are voting republican. Latinos, about 40 above the national average, identify themselves as conservatives. , we are looking at joe biden scoring among latino voters pretty much what a democrat can expect. Donald trump actually doing not as well as his predecessors, john mccain and mitt romney. Both of whom did pretty poorly among latino voters. Inid as a true expert polling, as you look at this election, what is the toughest problem in polling . I assume not National Polls. Do we,ruman in 1948 beat the National Polls have not been that far off, but the state once our ones are. Is pennsylvania the toughest not to crack . John i think we know enough to know that it is competitive. That is about all that polls can tell you. , pennsylvania remains a pretty competitive state. Said,es carville famously it its pittsburgh and philadelphia to the west and east, and a whole lot of alabama in between. Is a land very much of moderate republicans and conservative democrats. It kind of breaks the mold a little bit. David to what extent will it be harder to make any projection for the media . We dont have exit polls i dont think anymore. It is difficult to get our arms around the polling results in the past. Pollsi never thought exit should project elections. Exit polls are vital for people telling us the way they voted, but otherwise, grab your popcorn, and watch the results come in like everyone else. And this is a pollster talking. That is consistent with my entire career about exit polls. David as someone who was a consumer of those exit polls when i was at cbs, i didnt trust them at all. We could look at certain portions of the population, but the exit polls themselves, there are just too many flaws. John there are. Today, least of which so many people voted before the election. What good doesnt have somebody sitting by at a table . We learned in 2004 in particular when the exit polls really blew some states, there could be a young mom as an exit poll or in philadelphia sitting with her small child, watching voters go by and say and this actually happened. Im supposed to ask questions of every seventh person that walks by. But this is a little lady, i dont want to bother her. Well, there you go. That screws up everything. David garbage in, garbage out. Thank you for joining us, john zogby. Up, we will talk to a key democratic player in the state of florida. Congressman Debbie Wasserman schultz. This is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. N and radio. David this is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. Im david westin. Years, florida looms large when it comes to figure out who will be the next president. This year is certainly no exception. We welcome a key democratic figure in florida, congresswoman Debbie Wasserman schultz. Thank you so much for being with us. We appreciate it. Can you hear me . Wasserman schultz, can you hear me . We will try to get her back. In the meantime, we are going to go to a break. This is bloomberg. David we are back now with congresswoman Wasserman Shultz. The evil geniuses have done their work and we have got the technical glitches sorted out. Part of forts lauderdale and miamidade county. Congresswoman Wasserman Shultz also serves as the chief deputy whip. Give us a view from florida right now today. Debbie we are seeing increased turnout here on election day. Broward county is the bluest county in the state, the biggest swing states. We are clocking in at around 71 turnout. Our supervisor of elections is saying that it is not impossible to get to 80 turnout by the end of the day. Between early vote, vote by mail, early voting. That would be a record and we are obviously we are racking up the numbers here in broward county, and it bodes well not only for bidenharris, but all the democrats up and down the ballot. People are voting in robust numbers because they want change. Bloomberg had a report last friday that some people in the biden camp were concerned that you were not getting the latino turnout that you needed in south florida. Is there any truth to that . This is with the early voting. Debbie actually, going into the weekend, we did have a vote by inl lag in africanamericans miamidade county, and that picked up over the weekend. Aboutinto election day, 115 thousand votes ahead of the republicans. More than,000 votes going into the election day in 2016. Now you have 9 million votes cast statewide. That is significantly better. We are feeling good about the turnout across the state. There are long lines in tampa. Better turnout in broward and miamidade counties, both blue counties. The hispanic turnout, we are expecting it to continue to go well. Att making sure that we are it all the time. People can still drop off their mailin ballots at a supervisor of elections headquarters, or you can drop them off at your precinct. David all of us in the media are trying to be patient and not get ahead of ourselves. The final poll closings will be at 8 00. 7 00 for most of the state but 8 00 for the panhandle. At the same time, you have been able to count the early vote early. Do you expect that we will get those fairly soon after the polls close . Florida, our supervisor some election can tabulate before election day. A large majority of our votes will post, i would guess around polls9 30, because of the closing at 8 00 in the panhandle. Youll get a good sense of where we are this evening. Then we have to add the election day turnout as well. There is every expectation that we will know how florida has voted tonight, maybe late tonight. If it continues to go the way it ntas comend then as come our way, and lets not forget about the republicans. Some are ashamed of this president and have gone to the polls to cast their vote for joe biden. David what about the military absentee ballots . In the past, that has been an issue in florida. Debbie i have not heard of any problems of the delivery of those ballots. Is. 03 ,rejection rate so we are not seeing a lot of problems with boots being canceled at the polls. I know that our party has an aggressive ballot curing program, where if there is a problem with someones signature, if something needs to be fixed, voters have 48 hours following the submission of their vote to correct it, so the boat can count. That process is going very well. David here in the northeast, there is concern about possible disruptions. Some stores boarded up in new york city, washington, d. C. We hope that Nothing Happened but people are preparing for the possibility. How orderly is it in florida, what are you seeing out there at the polls . Debbie i have been out all day. , lets say,rmal overly enthusiastic bowl worker, mostly on the trump side, frankly poll worker, mostly on the trump side, frankly. That hasnt been anything out of the ordinary. But really, Donald Trumps responsibility is not to foment civil unrest but to make sure there is calm and accept the outcome of the result. And let me stress, we are not likely to know tonight who is elected president , because there always, states, like who is ballots come in after the election. Many states, unlike ours, can postmark their ballot by election day, and then counted when it is received. We will have to be patient. Donald trump needs to not make life harder and make the outcome of this election more difficult and fan the flames of civil unrest because he may not like the eventual outcome. David thank you so much, and thank you for your patience with the technical difficulties. For bloomberg first word news, we go to Mark Crumpton. Mark americans continue to turnout in huge numbers to cast their ballots in the selection. More than 100 million americans have already voted. By the time polls close tonight among the department of Homeland Security estimates that number will be 150 million. Americans may not know who will be sworn in as president next january for days or weeks, if a tight race in battleground tes prompts traditional judicial battles over late arriving ballots. They may have tried but no foreign actors meddled in the election, that from the acting Homeland Security secretary. He says they remain on high alert by any interference from foreign actors including russia, china, and iran. President has reviewed lee challenged u. S. Intelligence communitys findings that russia try to influence the 2016 in his favor. As david mentioned, retailers are bracing for potential violence in the wake of the election. Store owners in manhattan, washington, and other cities have boarded up their windows. In beverly hills, police are closing rodeo drive today and tomorrow. In the u. K. , officials have raised the threat level to severe, meaning an attack on the u. K. Is highly likely. The step was taken as a precaution and was not based on a specific plot against britain. Police deadly incidents in france and austria in recent weeks fronted the move. Global news 24 hours a day, onair, and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Im Mark Crumpton. This is bloomberg. David thank you, mark. Arizona was once known as a reliably republican state, as not voted for a democratic candidate since bill clinton won in 1996. The phase of arizona politics changing. Ed ludlow is covering the race for us in phoenix. Give us a sense of how different arizona is from 2016. Im sorry, im not hearing ed. Another technical difficulty, not just with congresswoman wasserman schultz. He is in phoenix because arizona is a key state in the race, not only for the president ial race but also the senate race, where we have mark kelly going up the current senator from arizona. The same time, i was suggesting, there has been a fundamental change, particularly in Maricopa County, where phoenix is located. The county has changed fundamentally and who lives there, the demographics, both the age and race and ethnicity, and apparently in their orientation to certain issues, such as immigration. What was once the side of the conservative seems to be more purple. Although it depends on whether you talk to a democrat or arizona. N in it will be a key race if former Vice President biden is to take over the presidency. The route for him is to make sure that he holds all the states that went for Hillary Clinton last time and add some. Arizona is one of the key states that he wants to add. Of course, also turnaround wisconsin, michigan, and pennsylvania, if he hopes to get to the 270 electoral votes which will be essential to become the next president of the United States. At the same time, President Trump is fighting hard for nevada and arizona. President trump has some hopes of actually turning that back to red. It is part of the jigsaw across the country. Now im told that we do have ed ludlow. I have beenvamping. I was going to ask, how is arizona different from four years ago . Ed democrats are hoping a more educated electorate, higher immigration, tech workers will be in their favor. They are more inclined to vote liberal on these issues. If you talk to small Business Owners, they talk favorably about trump and the republicans because they are tourism businesses, leisure businesses, and they were pleased at the pace of reopening. Beyond that, the issue is covid and health care. Close to 250,000 cases. Say they, democrats president and the Republican Party have acted irresponsibly. Pressuredtrump governor ducey to open up in june and july, and that is when you saw arizona become an epicenter of cases here in the u. S. David give us a moment or two on the senate race, which is important out there as well. Ed great chance for the democrats to return two senators to washington for the First Time Since the 1950s. As you said, mark kelly, a former astronaut, running a centrist platform, often invoking john mccain. His opponent Martha Mcsally lost to Kyrsten Sinema but was then appointed by governor ducey to the vacancy. She has often used the line that kelly would bring a liberal focus to the state, but his focus has been a centrist. Democrats i have spoken to said they really think kelly will give them a boost down ballot as well. He often encourages voters to look down ballot and has a good handle on the issues here in Maricopa County and arizona broadly. Democrats are feeling positive today. Republicans are a little nervous because they think there could have been a bleed of moderate voters toward mark kelly and joe biden statewide. To dealrizona knows how with absentee ballots. They have a lot of them every year. Ed will be a part of our coverage starting at 7 00 tonight. This is bloomberg. Mark i am Mark Crumpton with bloombergs first word news. President trump is sounding confident on this election day. During a visit to Campaign Headquarters in arlington, virginia, the president predicted tremendous results and a great night for his reelection bid. The president was asked whether americans would know the results of the election this evening. President trump you have to have a date. The date happens to be november 3. We should be entitled to know who won on november 3. If somebody comes along and puts a ballot in way late, they should put it in earlier. There is no reason why they cannot put it in two weeks earlier or one week earlier. I think it is a very dangerous decision for our country. Very dangerous in many ways. Mark the president said his from campaignse rallies. He identified florida and pennsylvania has the most crucial states as voters cast ballots. Democratic nominee joe biden returned to his childhood home of scranton, pennsylvania, where he visited his childhood hom